Victor King (King Creole)
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Fresno State Bulldogs
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We talked about this year’s Las Vegas Bowl pretty extensively on this week’s Marc Lawrence ‘Against the Spread’ podcast. And after doing a few more days of research, we’re confident that this is the BEST Total on Day One of the Bowls. The OU line between Arizona State and Fresno State opened at 52.5 points. As we type this writeup on Thursday afternoon, the OU action is pretty one-side. 90% to 04% of the early money is on the OVER… and 68-70% of all early tickets are also on the OVER. As a result, the line has risen ti the current number (as of Thursday afternoon) of 54.5 points. We have no problem going the other way. In fact, you may want to hold off on making your move until game day. There is a good chance that the OU line will go up even further in the next 48 hours. So a sharp OU bettor will continue to monitor the line movement… shopper the BEST line… and then strike when the line reaches its zenith (55-56 points?).
Arizona State went 6-6 O/U this season. Average points per game: 30.87. Average points per game allowed: 25.1. Nothing very revealing in those numbers. Except that they DID go 2-5 O/U this season when tabbed as an underdog (they are currently +5 in this game). What IS significant is the last 13 times that the Sun Devils faced Mountain West Conference opponent, they have gone 3-9-1 O/U (75% Under). On the flip side, Fresno State was one of the BEST Under teams in all of College Football this season. In fact, they were the #2 Under team in the nation (#1 Under team was North Texas at 1-11 O/U). In their lined games, the Bulldogs went 2-10 O/U this year. Average points per game: 34.9. Average points per game allowed: 13.7. That’s not a misprint. Fresno allowed less points per game this season than EVERY other team in College Football (130 of ‘em) except for Mississippi State (12.0 ppg allowed). These numbers are not a surprise. Head Coach Jeff Tedford is a big-time defensive guy who made his mark as a great UNDER coach when he was at California. In his two seasons at Fresno State, they have gone 4-19-1 O/U in their lined regular season games!
Sealing the deal for us on Day One of the Bowls is the fact that’s ASU’s BEST offensive player is taking this game OFF. That’s right. The most dangerous weapon on the Sun Devil’s team is standout Wide Receiver N’Keal Harry. He figures to be a first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL draft… and has the potential to be a game-breaker in Pro Football. His numbers this season were extremely strong. 73 receptions for 1088 yards and 9 TD’s. The next best guy on the Sun Devil’s team had only 39 catches for 411 yards and 1 TD (Kyle Williams). So with their main man taking the game of, we figure to see a lot of running back Eno Benjamin (277 att / 1524 yards / 5.5 yards per rush). That suits us just fine.
The pairing of Arizona State’s youthful defense and Fresno State’s DOMINANT defense should turn this Las Vegas Bowl into a GRIND-IT-OUT affair. The first team to each 20 points might very well be the ‘Victor’. The Bulldogs of Fresno State are pretty well suited for just such a contest. After all, they just held Boise State to only 16 points on Boise’s HOME field two weeks ago in the MWC Championship game. They shut down Boise senior QB Brett Rypien, and held him down to his WORST start of the 2018 season (15 for 31 / only 125 passing yards). In their last five games, Fresno finished the year with 5 STRAIGHT Unders in a row. Our database models and simulations have this game ending with a final score of Fresno State 27 - Arizona State 20. That’s about 7 to 7.5 points LESS than the current number of 54.5. And that triggers a normal 3*** Play for our service.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Fresno State Bulldogs
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We talked about this year’s Las Vegas Bowl pretty extensively on this week’s Marc Lawrence ‘Against the Spread’ podcast. And after doing a few more days of research, we’re confident that this is the BEST Total on Day One of the Bowls. The OU line between Arizona State and Fresno State opened at 52.5 points. As we type this writeup on Thursday afternoon, the OU action is pretty one-side. 90% to 04% of the early money is on the OVER… and 68-70% of all early tickets are also on the OVER. As a result, the line has risen ti the current number (as of Thursday afternoon) of 54.5 points. We have no problem going the other way. In fact, you may want to hold off on making your move until game day. There is a good chance that the OU line will go up even further in the next 48 hours. So a sharp OU bettor will continue to monitor the line movement… shopper the BEST line… and then strike when the line reaches its zenith (55-56 points?).
Arizona State went 6-6 O/U this season. Average points per game: 30.87. Average points per game allowed: 25.1. Nothing very revealing in those numbers. Except that they DID go 2-5 O/U this season when tabbed as an underdog (they are currently +5 in this game). What IS significant is the last 13 times that the Sun Devils faced Mountain West Conference opponent, they have gone 3-9-1 O/U (75% Under). On the flip side, Fresno State was one of the BEST Under teams in all of College Football this season. In fact, they were the #2 Under team in the nation (#1 Under team was North Texas at 1-11 O/U). In their lined games, the Bulldogs went 2-10 O/U this year. Average points per game: 34.9. Average points per game allowed: 13.7. That’s not a misprint. Fresno allowed less points per game this season than EVERY other team in College Football (130 of ‘em) except for Mississippi State (12.0 ppg allowed). These numbers are not a surprise. Head Coach Jeff Tedford is a big-time defensive guy who made his mark as a great UNDER coach when he was at California. In his two seasons at Fresno State, they have gone 4-19-1 O/U in their lined regular season games!
Sealing the deal for us on Day One of the Bowls is the fact that’s ASU’s BEST offensive player is taking this game OFF. That’s right. The most dangerous weapon on the Sun Devil’s team is standout Wide Receiver N’Keal Harry. He figures to be a first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL draft… and has the potential to be a game-breaker in Pro Football. His numbers this season were extremely strong. 73 receptions for 1088 yards and 9 TD’s. The next best guy on the Sun Devil’s team had only 39 catches for 411 yards and 1 TD (Kyle Williams). So with their main man taking the game of, we figure to see a lot of running back Eno Benjamin (277 att / 1524 yards / 5.5 yards per rush). That suits us just fine.
The pairing of Arizona State’s youthful defense and Fresno State’s DOMINANT defense should turn this Las Vegas Bowl into a GRIND-IT-OUT affair. The first team to each 20 points might very well be the ‘Victor’. The Bulldogs of Fresno State are pretty well suited for just such a contest. After all, they just held Boise State to only 16 points on Boise’s HOME field two weeks ago in the MWC Championship game. They shut down Boise senior QB Brett Rypien, and held him down to his WORST start of the 2018 season (15 for 31 / only 125 passing yards). In their last five games, Fresno finished the year with 5 STRAIGHT Unders in a row. Our database models and simulations have this game ending with a final score of Fresno State 27 - Arizona State 20. That’s about 7 to 7.5 points LESS than the current number of 54.5. And that triggers a normal 3*** Play for our service.
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
Premier Picks® For 12/15/18
5* Eastern Michigan/Georgia Southern OVER 45 (NCAAF)
Range: 43.5 to 47.5
3* Cleveland +2.5 over Denver (NFL)
Range: +4 to PK
3* Middle Tennessee +6.5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
Range: +8.5 to +4.5
3* California-Poly/California OVER 135 (NCAAB)
Range: 133.5 to 137.5
Premier Picks® For 12/15/18
5* Eastern Michigan/Georgia Southern OVER 45 (NCAAF)
Range: 43.5 to 47.5
3* Cleveland +2.5 over Denver (NFL)
Range: +4 to PK
3* Middle Tennessee +6.5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
Range: +8.5 to +4.5
3* California-Poly/California OVER 135 (NCAAB)
Range: 133.5 to 137.5
Dwayne Bryant
SATURDAY, December 15, 2018
College Football -- New Orleans Bowl -- 9 PM ET
[209] Middle Tennessee State vs [210] Appalachian State
PLAY: [209] MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7 (-115)
BET SIZE: 4%
NBA --9:05 PM ET
[513] Los Angeles Clippers at [514] Oklahoma City Thunder
PLAY: UNDER 226.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
College Basketball --11 PM ET
[675] LSU at [676] Saint Mary's CA
PLAY: UNDER 149 (-108)
BET SIZE: 4%
SATURDAY, December 15, 2018
College Football -- New Orleans Bowl -- 9 PM ET
[209] Middle Tennessee State vs [210] Appalachian State
PLAY: [209] MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7 (-115)
BET SIZE: 4%
NBA --9:05 PM ET
[513] Los Angeles Clippers at [514] Oklahoma City Thunder
PLAY: UNDER 226.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
College Basketball --11 PM ET
[675] LSU at [676] Saint Mary's CA
PLAY: UNDER 149 (-108)
BET SIZE: 4%
North Coast:
- 3* UNDER 46.5 Cleveland/Denver 8:20 pm
- Top Opinion:Saturday Marquee: Houston (-7) NY Jets 4:30 pm
- 3* UNDER 54 Las Vegas Bowl (Arizona St - Fresno St) 3:30 pm ABC (Marquee TRIPLE)
- 3* Eastern Michigan (+3) Georgia Southern (Camellia Bowl) 5:30 pm ESPN
- 3* Middle Tennessee (+7) Appalachian St (New Orleans Bowl) 9:00 pm ESPNBowl
- Top Opinions:Tulane (-3) Louisiana (Cure Bowl) 1:30 pm CBS Sports NetworkArizona St (+6) over Fresno St (Las Vegas Bowl) 3:30 pm ABC
- Regular Opinions:Marquee DOUBLE Over 68.5 New Mexico Bowl (North Texas - Utah St) 2:00 pm ESPNMarquee SINGLE Under 45 Camellia Bowl (Eastern Michigan - Georgia Southern) 5:30 pm ESPNMarquee SINGLE Over 47.5 New Orleans Bowl (Middle Tennessee - App St) 9:00 pm ESPN Comp button 9-Had to Pick em:Marquee SINGLE Under 61.5 Cure Bowl (Tulane - Louisiana) 1:30pm CBS Sports NetworkNorth Texas (+7.5) Utah St (New Mexico Bowl) 2pm ESPNNorthcoast Small College STAR RATED PLAY:NoneRegular Opinion: Celebration Bowl Alcorn St (+8) North Carolina A&T Noon ABC
