Steve Merril
NCAA Football
(3% play) FLORIDA STATE -6 (vs. Louisville) - 12:00 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN) #398
-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class
-offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play
-Cardinals' defense is giving up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road
-Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season
-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play
-Seminoles' defense is allowing just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play
Play FLORIDA STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OREGON +6.5 (at UCLA) - 4:00 pm ET (time-change) (PAC12) #383
-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here
-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now facing a terrible defense
-Ducks' defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play
-UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of -14.7 ppg
-offense has faced defenses that give up 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play
-Bruins' defense is giving up 40.5 points on a whopping 6.7 yards per play this season
Play OREGON (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) NOTRE DAME -3.5 (vs. USC) - 7:30 pm ET (NBC) #402
-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date; 1-6 ATS overall
-offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play
-Trojans' defense has faced bad offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play; big step-up here
-Notre Dame off bye week and hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season
-offense averaging 40 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 5.3 yppl
-Fighting Irish defense allowing only 16.8 points per game on a stout 4.8 yards per play; 5-1 ATS overall
Play NOTRE DAME (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) BOISE STATE -14 (vs. Wyoming) - 10:15 pm ET (time-change) (espn2) #364
-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa
-offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl
-Cowboys' defense has faced weak offenses that average only 21.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play
-Boise State has this game circled after losing as a 14.5-point favorite at Wyoming last season
-offense is averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.5 points per game
-Broncos' defense is allowing just 22.8 points per game on a strong 4.6 yards per play
Play BOISE STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Football
(3% play) FLORIDA STATE -6 (vs. Louisville) - 12:00 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN) #398
-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class
-offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play
-Cardinals' defense is giving up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road
-Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season
-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play
-Seminoles' defense is allowing just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play
Play FLORIDA STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OREGON +6.5 (at UCLA) - 4:00 pm ET (time-change) (PAC12) #383
-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here
-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now facing a terrible defense
-Ducks' defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play
-UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of -14.7 ppg
-offense has faced defenses that give up 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play
-Bruins' defense is giving up 40.5 points on a whopping 6.7 yards per play this season
Play OREGON (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) NOTRE DAME -3.5 (vs. USC) - 7:30 pm ET (NBC) #402
-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date; 1-6 ATS overall
-offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play
-Trojans' defense has faced bad offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play; big step-up here
-Notre Dame off bye week and hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season
-offense averaging 40 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 5.3 yppl
-Fighting Irish defense allowing only 16.8 points per game on a stout 4.8 yards per play; 5-1 ATS overall
Play NOTRE DAME (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) BOISE STATE -14 (vs. Wyoming) - 10:15 pm ET (time-change) (espn2) #364
-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa
-offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl
-Cowboys' defense has faced weak offenses that average only 21.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play
-Boise State has this game circled after losing as a 14.5-point favorite at Wyoming last season
-offense is averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.5 points per game
-Broncos' defense is allowing just 22.8 points per game on a strong 4.6 yards per play
Play BOISE STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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Trace Adams [h=4]Saturday's Selection ...[/h]For Saturday, 5th Ever College Football 2500♦ Winner is Michigan as the road dog at Penn State. At 11:45 pm eastern time on Friday night, the Wolverines are the +9 1/2 point underdogs both in Vegas and offshore. I advise buying the half-point up on Michigan if your price is +9 1/2 or +10 points.
