Stephen Nover's CFB Money Line Moneymaker
Rutgers vs Illinois
Illinois -135
It's not too much to ask Illinois to beat the worst team in the Big Ten, Rutgers, at home. The Scarlet Knights haven't won a road game, after all, since November of 2015. The Illini hold a talent edge on the Scarlet Knights. Illinois has been derailed by quarterback turnovers. I don't see that being as much of an issue against this caliber of opponent especially at home. Rutgers has scored a combined 44 points in its last four games - all losses - against Purdue, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State.
Stephen Nover's All-Access CFB Pass
2* Kansas +22.5 (-110)
Kansas has lost 42 straight road games. I'm not asking the Jayhawks to win here. They just don't have to lose by more than three touchdowns. Kansas actually has covered five of its last six Big 12 Conference games. But I'm banking more on a huge letdown from Iowa State. That certainly would be understandable after the Cyclones stunned then third-raked Oklahoma, 38-31, on the road last Saturday. That was one of the biggest wins in Iowa State history. The Cyclones aren't good enough to celebrate all week and then beat Kansas by more than three touchdowns. Iowa State only beat Kansas, 31-24, on the road last season. Before upsetting Oklahoma, the Cyclones had lost two of three, both at home.
Baylor/Oklahoma St
2* Under 68.5 (-110)
Baylor is way down this season ranking 103rd in rushing. The combination of this and a large total and extreme weather conditions put me on the Under.
There is expected to be heavy winds about to 30 mph. This obviously is going to affect the passing game of both teams forcing
more running plays.
New Mexico St/ Georgia Southern
2* Over 57.5 (-110)
Georgia Southern has allowed 95 points in its last two games against Indiana and Arkansas State. New Mexico State ranks in the top 30 in yardage and has the offense and quarterback in Tyler Rogers to put up a lot of points against such a weak defense. The Aggies have trouble stopping the run, though, ranking 99th in run defense. Georgia Southern can run the ball with its triple option offense.
Ohio St/Nebraska
2* Under 58.5 (-110)
Ohio State has a top-10 defense surrendering fewer than 16 points a game. I don't see Tanner Lee and the Nebraska offense doing much against the Buckeyes.
Nebraska's defense had been playing better before getting blown out by Wisconsin last week. Prior to that game, the Cornhuskers had held held Northern Illinois, Rutgers and Illinois to a combined 44 points. Another big key here is there is a strong wind factor with gusts around 20 mph. This could mean a lot of extra running.
2* Minnesota +4.5 (-110)
This spot sets up great for Minnesota. The Gophers opened the season going 3-0 in P.J. Fleck's first year with the school. But Minnesota has lost its first two Big Ten games laying an egg against Maryland and then blowing a fourth quarter lead against Purdue on the road last week. So this is a huge stop-the-pain game for Fleck and the Gophers. They catch Michigan State on the road a second straight week and off a victory against arch-rival Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was a two-touchdown 'dog in that game. Can you say letdown for the Spartans? I can. It's the first time the Spartans are playing outside of Michigan. Minnesota should draw a huge crowd as this is a night game. The Spartans were a road favorite three times last season. They not only failed to cover each of those games, but lost straight-up. The Gophers hold a key edge on the Spartans in passing and pass defense. Minnesota is averaging nearly three yards more per completion than Michigan State and its defense is giving up 2.3 fewer yards on pass completions.
3* New Mexico +2 (-110)
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
Nevada/Colorado St
2* Over 64 (-110)
Nevada finally got its offense going last week beating Hawaii, 35-21. The Wolf Pack could do some damage against an average Colorado State pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61 percent of their throws. The Rams also are vulnerable on special teams having given up two return touchdowns. But what's going to put this game Over the total is Colorado State's offense. The Rams average 506.2 yards a game, which is best in the Mountain West and 14th in the nation. The Rams average more than 33 points a game. Quarterback Nick Stevens has thrown for 1,871 yards, sixth-best in the country. He has a tremendous receiver in Michael Gallup. Nevada isn't going to be able to stop this combination. I expect Nevada to fall behind early and thus play at a fast tempo, which is their style. Given Colorado State's outstanding offense and a fast tempo, look for this game to go Over.
Boise St/San Diego St
2* Over 46 (-110)
This isn't too high of a total for these two teams to go Over considering their respective skill position talent.
Boise State has a balanced attack, while San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, Rashaad Penny. He's rushed for triple digits in his last six games. The Aztecs also have been getting solid production from quarterback Christian Chapman.
The over has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Boise State has played on the road.
Rutgers vs Illinois
Illinois -135
It's not too much to ask Illinois to beat the worst team in the Big Ten, Rutgers, at home. The Scarlet Knights haven't won a road game, after all, since November of 2015. The Illini hold a talent edge on the Scarlet Knights. Illinois has been derailed by quarterback turnovers. I don't see that being as much of an issue against this caliber of opponent especially at home. Rutgers has scored a combined 44 points in its last four games - all losses - against Purdue, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State.
Stephen Nover's All-Access CFB Pass
2* Kansas +22.5 (-110)
Kansas has lost 42 straight road games. I'm not asking the Jayhawks to win here. They just don't have to lose by more than three touchdowns. Kansas actually has covered five of its last six Big 12 Conference games. But I'm banking more on a huge letdown from Iowa State. That certainly would be understandable after the Cyclones stunned then third-raked Oklahoma, 38-31, on the road last Saturday. That was one of the biggest wins in Iowa State history. The Cyclones aren't good enough to celebrate all week and then beat Kansas by more than three touchdowns. Iowa State only beat Kansas, 31-24, on the road last season. Before upsetting Oklahoma, the Cyclones had lost two of three, both at home.
Baylor/Oklahoma St
2* Under 68.5 (-110)
Baylor is way down this season ranking 103rd in rushing. The combination of this and a large total and extreme weather conditions put me on the Under.
There is expected to be heavy winds about to 30 mph. This obviously is going to affect the passing game of both teams forcing
more running plays.
New Mexico St/ Georgia Southern
2* Over 57.5 (-110)
Georgia Southern has allowed 95 points in its last two games against Indiana and Arkansas State. New Mexico State ranks in the top 30 in yardage and has the offense and quarterback in Tyler Rogers to put up a lot of points against such a weak defense. The Aggies have trouble stopping the run, though, ranking 99th in run defense. Georgia Southern can run the ball with its triple option offense.
Ohio St/Nebraska
2* Under 58.5 (-110)
Ohio State has a top-10 defense surrendering fewer than 16 points a game. I don't see Tanner Lee and the Nebraska offense doing much against the Buckeyes.
Nebraska's defense had been playing better before getting blown out by Wisconsin last week. Prior to that game, the Cornhuskers had held held Northern Illinois, Rutgers and Illinois to a combined 44 points. Another big key here is there is a strong wind factor with gusts around 20 mph. This could mean a lot of extra running.
2* Minnesota +4.5 (-110)
This spot sets up great for Minnesota. The Gophers opened the season going 3-0 in P.J. Fleck's first year with the school. But Minnesota has lost its first two Big Ten games laying an egg against Maryland and then blowing a fourth quarter lead against Purdue on the road last week. So this is a huge stop-the-pain game for Fleck and the Gophers. They catch Michigan State on the road a second straight week and off a victory against arch-rival Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was a two-touchdown 'dog in that game. Can you say letdown for the Spartans? I can. It's the first time the Spartans are playing outside of Michigan. Minnesota should draw a huge crowd as this is a night game. The Spartans were a road favorite three times last season. They not only failed to cover each of those games, but lost straight-up. The Gophers hold a key edge on the Spartans in passing and pass defense. Minnesota is averaging nearly three yards more per completion than Michigan State and its defense is giving up 2.3 fewer yards on pass completions.
3* New Mexico +2 (-110)
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
Nevada/Colorado St
2* Over 64 (-110)
Nevada finally got its offense going last week beating Hawaii, 35-21. The Wolf Pack could do some damage against an average Colorado State pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61 percent of their throws. The Rams also are vulnerable on special teams having given up two return touchdowns. But what's going to put this game Over the total is Colorado State's offense. The Rams average 506.2 yards a game, which is best in the Mountain West and 14th in the nation. The Rams average more than 33 points a game. Quarterback Nick Stevens has thrown for 1,871 yards, sixth-best in the country. He has a tremendous receiver in Michael Gallup. Nevada isn't going to be able to stop this combination. I expect Nevada to fall behind early and thus play at a fast tempo, which is their style. Given Colorado State's outstanding offense and a fast tempo, look for this game to go Over.
Boise St/San Diego St
2* Over 46 (-110)
This isn't too high of a total for these two teams to go Over considering their respective skill position talent.
Boise State has a balanced attack, while San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, Rashaad Penny. He's rushed for triple digits in his last six games. The Aztecs also have been getting solid production from quarterback Christian Chapman.
The over has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Boise State has played on the road.
Stephen Nover's NHL Totals Crusher
Maple leafs/Canadiens
2* Over 5.5 (-121)
Playing the Maple Leafs Over the total is getting to be mandatory especially when the oddsmaker opens their over/under at less than 6. Great young offensive talent, an in-your-face up-tempo style and a mistake-prone defense make Toronto a perfect Over team. Each of the Maple Leafs' four games have gone Over. The least amonnt of goals scored in any of these four games was seven goals. Now we have a Toronto-Montreal matchup. The oddsmaker has opened this total at less than 6 because the Canadiens rank second-to-last in goals and have 2015 Hart and Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price in goal. I still see this one going Over. Let's start with the Maple Leafs equation first. Toronto has scored 22 goals, an average of 5.5 per game. That's the best in the league. The Maple Leafs also take the most shots per game and have the second-best power play in the NHL. Price wasn't nearly as good last season as he was in 2015. He hasn't been that sharp this season either giving up nine goals on the last 64 shots he's faced. Montreal can take advantage of Toronto's defensive weakness. Frederik Andersen hasn't been that sharp in goal either for Toronto with a save percentage of .871. The key here is that the Canadiens are going to skate with Toronto rather than go into a defensive shell. This quote from Canadiens coach Claude Julien is telling: "...if you plan on playing on your heels against that team (Maple Leafs) they'll eat you alive, so we are going to be on our toes. It's going to be us pushing them back with our speed, hopefully, and playing with a little bit more engery."
Maple leafs/Canadiens
2* Over 5.5 (-121)
Playing the Maple Leafs Over the total is getting to be mandatory especially when the oddsmaker opens their over/under at less than 6. Great young offensive talent, an in-your-face up-tempo style and a mistake-prone defense make Toronto a perfect Over team. Each of the Maple Leafs' four games have gone Over. The least amonnt of goals scored in any of these four games was seven goals. Now we have a Toronto-Montreal matchup. The oddsmaker has opened this total at less than 6 because the Canadiens rank second-to-last in goals and have 2015 Hart and Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price in goal. I still see this one going Over. Let's start with the Maple Leafs equation first. Toronto has scored 22 goals, an average of 5.5 per game. That's the best in the league. The Maple Leafs also take the most shots per game and have the second-best power play in the NHL. Price wasn't nearly as good last season as he was in 2015. He hasn't been that sharp this season either giving up nine goals on the last 64 shots he's faced. Montreal can take advantage of Toronto's defensive weakness. Frederik Andersen hasn't been that sharp in goal either for Toronto with a save percentage of .871. The key here is that the Canadiens are going to skate with Toronto rather than go into a defensive shell. This quote from Canadiens coach Claude Julien is telling: "...if you plan on playing on your heels against that team (Maple Leafs) they'll eat you alive, so we are going to be on our toes. It's going to be us pushing them back with our speed, hopefully, and playing with a little bit more engery."
Eric Schroeder
Today's Winner:
My 75 Dime Winner is on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS in today's ACC clash with the North Carolina Tar Heels. And as I release this play at 5:45 a.m. pacific, the number I see is Virginia -3.5. And as long as the oddsmakers are you offering anywhere between -3 and -4.5 on this game, buy the half point down.
Today's Winner:
My 75 Dime Winner is on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS in today's ACC clash with the North Carolina Tar Heels. And as I release this play at 5:45 a.m. pacific, the number I see is Virginia -3.5. And as long as the oddsmakers are you offering anywhere between -3 and -4.5 on this game, buy the half point down.
The Prez
NC STATE at PITTSBURGH U
4% Total Over 54.0 (-110)
The defensive prowess of the Panthers and head coach Narduzzi has been poor over the last two-plus seasons. An aggressive secondary is being taken to school playing on an island as the front seven try without success to get to opposing quarterbacks.
Expect the Panthers offense to be as aggressive this week as their defense has been all season. And the result is likely to be a large number of mistakes against a capable Wolfpack defensive line that includes soon-to-be rush end Chubb. The 'Pack won't hold back in this event as they face a week off to prepare for both Notre Dame and Clemson to follow, a pair of games that will likely define their season. The clubs win over an injury riddled FSU squad was notable but not so much that it alone will the oddsmakers elevate their market value. The number in this game is not only fair, being minus-11, but under-the-radar back-able, as is the over-under in this contest.
Narduzzi has made yet another change at quarterback again due to check-down Browne's arm injury. Expect the announcers to call the newest signal caller, DiNucci, Narduzzi a time or two this Saturday.
It likely won't be a pleasant homecoming on the Pittsburgh campus this weekend. Despite being in the same conference this is the first meeting as ACC foes for the two squads. Don't expect a letdown from the NC State offense as many are suggesting with a bye week in front of them. Because of their emotional and significant win over Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals a week ago, a previous win over FSU in Florida and upcoming big games, only make this pre-holiday week for the 'Pack a game to keep their offensive momentum flying high.
QB Finley is in a position to overly successful against the man-to-man that Narduzzi schemes in his secondary. Finley threw for nearly 400 yards again last week and a stellar TD to INT ratio this season. The fact that he squares off against a defense that ranks at the bottom of FBS categories, most important ones, in combination with leaving the State coaching staff guessing as how to game plan for a new quarterback an easily projected high scoring affair.
MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA
3% MICHIGAN STATE -4.0 (-104)
The bandwagon Big 10 fans that don't actually reside in the state and are not bitter about last week's loss of big brother (Michigan) to little brother (Michigan State) will jump on the Spartans this week not offering us any real market value. However, don't buy into any hangover by MSU in this conference contest. The Spartans are well coached and the staff will have nothing short of a 3-0 Big 10 mark when exiting this game. In truth the Wolverines were not nearly physical enough last weekend and the late weather conditions in the Big House affair favored the MSU offense rather than that of the quarterback-less U of M unit.
While Penn State now holds the cards in the Big 10 and is the most likely of the conference clubs to have a shot in the Final Four come January a win by the Spartans here makes is very difficult for Buckeye faithful to hope a perfect close for the Ohio State squad with their only loss coming to then-No 3 Oklahoma a reality.
QB Lewerke has managed the offense to near perfection and done so the last two weeks against good defensive units, the Wolves and the Hawks, and his ability to run and throw is a difficult matchup for the Gophers.
Note that the Spartans defense contained both Michigan and Iowa's rushing attack to just over two-and-one-half yards per carry and any offensive success by Minnesota will come via the ground. They have far too many injuries to their receiving corps to depend on the passing game in this league event.
BOISE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE
4% SAN DIEGO STATE -7.0 (-109)
The nationally ranked Mountain West SDSU Aztecs get a home date against the Boise State Broncos. First and foremost the Broncs are not who they have been in the past and it starts with their inability to create turnovers. They don't have a playmaker on the front seven nor in their secondary that creates matchup issues, especially for teams like the Aztecs that can be balanced or run-heavy depending on their opponent.
Boise is off a 24-7 win against a pedestrian BYU club while the Aztecs went into Las Vegas, a weekend after the tragic shooting, and runover the Rebels 41-10.
The win by Boise at BYU a week ago was more about the Cougars than the Broncs. Boise QB Brett Rypien threw for only 125 yards with one touchdown against one interception on 12 of 19 passing. Alexander Mattison racked up 118 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries, while Cedrick Wilson led the team with 3 catches for 43 yards.
Defensively, the Broncos did find a way to turn their opponent over but that was in garbage time and the two interceptions were unlikely had the score not favored the Broncos. BYU is undermanned and in truth are much like Boise, without enough blue-chip talent to compete on a level with the better teams in the college ranks.
The #19 San Diego State Aztecs are led by the invisible Christian Chapman who threw for 172 yards on 14 of 24 passing but it is Heisman candidate RB Rashaad Penny that is the big threat to opposing defenses. Penny rushed for 170 yards and two TD's. Juwan Chapman had 95 yards and a touchdown on his 10 carries and Mikah Holder is the difference maker in the passing game. The issues that the Aztecs had at home two weeks ago verus NIU was because Holder was taken out of the game for a targeting penalty.
Boise State is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when they are playing schools with a record of .501 or better and in conference play they rarely offer value going a poor 1-6 ATS. Conversely the Aztecs of San Diego State are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 conference tilts.
Boise State is in fact more talented and more dangerous than the Aztecs last opponent, UNLV, but the lack of defensive stand up by Boise is the difference in this game. With a lead San Diego State is a clock eating and against the spread monster.
NC STATE at PITTSBURGH U
4% Total Over 54.0 (-110)
The defensive prowess of the Panthers and head coach Narduzzi has been poor over the last two-plus seasons. An aggressive secondary is being taken to school playing on an island as the front seven try without success to get to opposing quarterbacks.
Expect the Panthers offense to be as aggressive this week as their defense has been all season. And the result is likely to be a large number of mistakes against a capable Wolfpack defensive line that includes soon-to-be rush end Chubb. The 'Pack won't hold back in this event as they face a week off to prepare for both Notre Dame and Clemson to follow, a pair of games that will likely define their season. The clubs win over an injury riddled FSU squad was notable but not so much that it alone will the oddsmakers elevate their market value. The number in this game is not only fair, being minus-11, but under-the-radar back-able, as is the over-under in this contest.
Narduzzi has made yet another change at quarterback again due to check-down Browne's arm injury. Expect the announcers to call the newest signal caller, DiNucci, Narduzzi a time or two this Saturday.
It likely won't be a pleasant homecoming on the Pittsburgh campus this weekend. Despite being in the same conference this is the first meeting as ACC foes for the two squads. Don't expect a letdown from the NC State offense as many are suggesting with a bye week in front of them. Because of their emotional and significant win over Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals a week ago, a previous win over FSU in Florida and upcoming big games, only make this pre-holiday week for the 'Pack a game to keep their offensive momentum flying high.
QB Finley is in a position to overly successful against the man-to-man that Narduzzi schemes in his secondary. Finley threw for nearly 400 yards again last week and a stellar TD to INT ratio this season. The fact that he squares off against a defense that ranks at the bottom of FBS categories, most important ones, in combination with leaving the State coaching staff guessing as how to game plan for a new quarterback an easily projected high scoring affair.
MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA
3% MICHIGAN STATE -4.0 (-104)
The bandwagon Big 10 fans that don't actually reside in the state and are not bitter about last week's loss of big brother (Michigan) to little brother (Michigan State) will jump on the Spartans this week not offering us any real market value. However, don't buy into any hangover by MSU in this conference contest. The Spartans are well coached and the staff will have nothing short of a 3-0 Big 10 mark when exiting this game. In truth the Wolverines were not nearly physical enough last weekend and the late weather conditions in the Big House affair favored the MSU offense rather than that of the quarterback-less U of M unit.
While Penn State now holds the cards in the Big 10 and is the most likely of the conference clubs to have a shot in the Final Four come January a win by the Spartans here makes is very difficult for Buckeye faithful to hope a perfect close for the Ohio State squad with their only loss coming to then-No 3 Oklahoma a reality.
QB Lewerke has managed the offense to near perfection and done so the last two weeks against good defensive units, the Wolves and the Hawks, and his ability to run and throw is a difficult matchup for the Gophers.
Note that the Spartans defense contained both Michigan and Iowa's rushing attack to just over two-and-one-half yards per carry and any offensive success by Minnesota will come via the ground. They have far too many injuries to their receiving corps to depend on the passing game in this league event.
BOISE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE
4% SAN DIEGO STATE -7.0 (-109)
The nationally ranked Mountain West SDSU Aztecs get a home date against the Boise State Broncos. First and foremost the Broncs are not who they have been in the past and it starts with their inability to create turnovers. They don't have a playmaker on the front seven nor in their secondary that creates matchup issues, especially for teams like the Aztecs that can be balanced or run-heavy depending on their opponent.
Boise is off a 24-7 win against a pedestrian BYU club while the Aztecs went into Las Vegas, a weekend after the tragic shooting, and runover the Rebels 41-10.
The win by Boise at BYU a week ago was more about the Cougars than the Broncs. Boise QB Brett Rypien threw for only 125 yards with one touchdown against one interception on 12 of 19 passing. Alexander Mattison racked up 118 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries, while Cedrick Wilson led the team with 3 catches for 43 yards.
Defensively, the Broncos did find a way to turn their opponent over but that was in garbage time and the two interceptions were unlikely had the score not favored the Broncos. BYU is undermanned and in truth are much like Boise, without enough blue-chip talent to compete on a level with the better teams in the college ranks.
The #19 San Diego State Aztecs are led by the invisible Christian Chapman who threw for 172 yards on 14 of 24 passing but it is Heisman candidate RB Rashaad Penny that is the big threat to opposing defenses. Penny rushed for 170 yards and two TD's. Juwan Chapman had 95 yards and a touchdown on his 10 carries and Mikah Holder is the difference maker in the passing game. The issues that the Aztecs had at home two weeks ago verus NIU was because Holder was taken out of the game for a targeting penalty.
Boise State is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when they are playing schools with a record of .501 or better and in conference play they rarely offer value going a poor 1-6 ATS. Conversely the Aztecs of San Diego State are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 conference tilts.
Boise State is in fact more talented and more dangerous than the Aztecs last opponent, UNLV, but the lack of defensive stand up by Boise is the difference in this game. With a lead San Diego State is a clock eating and against the spread monster.
