Posted wrong, must be Dallas -1.5
Event: (103) Seattle Seahawks at (104) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 5, 2019 8PM EST
Play: 3% – Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-108)
Play Rating: 3%
3% Take Dallas (#104)
If it wasn’t Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson vs. Dak Prescott and Jason Garrett, this would be worthy of a Big Ticket wager; a game that grades out very strongly to the Dallas side. Given the disparate postseason track records of these two coach/QB combinations, I personally wasn’t ready to make a ‘step-up’ sized wager on the Cowboys here. That being said, it’s pretty clear that Dallas is the better of these two teams right now; worthy of a standard sized wager DESPITE the Seahawks postseason success and the Cowboys postseason failures over the past decade.
It starts with this: the Cowboys offensive line is expected to be healthy, with both Zack Martin and Tyron Smith upgraded to probable. Seattle’s offensive line has not gotten a clean bill of health; with Duane Brown and JR Sweezy both questionable at best for Saturday Night.
That’s a HUGE deal in a game likely to be decided in the trenches. The NFL’s leading rusher, Zeke Elliott, got last week off, rested and raring to go against a Seahawks run defense that was suspect all year, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Only two teams in the NFL were worse. Chris Carson didn’t get last week to recuperate, bad news for an RB that hasn’t played into January before. And the Cowboys stuffed the run all season – only three teams allowed fewer than the 3.8 yards per carry allowed by Dallas this season.
The Cowboys biggest issue all year was red zone execution; repeatedly settling for field goals. Dak Prescott solved some of those woes last week against the Giants; a very positive sign moving forward. The Seahawks had two major issues this season – dicey OL play (still a concern) and dicey defensive line play (still a concern). In a game where the SU winner is highly likely to cover the pointspread, I have no hesitation backing the superior overall team, at home, in this very reasonable pointspread range. Take the Cowboys.
