Gator Report for Saturday
MLB (Saturday): Play Over MLB (NL) teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the year facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts.
(48-19 since 1997.) (71.6%) PLAY: NYY / San Francisco OVER 8.5 (-115)
MLB (Saturday): Play Under MLB (AL) road teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team batting average of <=.265 versus a team with a bullpen ERA <=3.75 and a starting pitcher who allows less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(62-26 last 5 seasons.) (70.5%) PLAY: KC / Milwaukee UNDER 9 (+100)
Tom Stryker's Interleague Gut-Check Game of the Year
#978 SAN DIEGO with Young (-119) over Boston at 10:05 PM EST
San Diego had its chances last night but failed to convert Boston mistakes into runs especially in the first inning. Now, off three consecutive losses and a pair of road series at San Francisco and Los Angeles on deck, the Padres need this game like blood. In situations like this a team needs to respond especially with its ace on the mound. San Diego will do exactly that with Chris Young.
What's not to like about Chris in this spot? In six home starts this year, the tall right-hander out of Princeton University has allowed only five earned runs and 26 hits in 41.0 frames. That adds up to a marvelous 1.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02. Dating back to May 1st, a span of nine starts, Young has been untouchable surrendering just eight earned runs and 34 hits in 56.2 innings of work.
Boston's overall record of 47-25 is certainly impressive. However, with knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield on the mound, the Red Sox own a 7-7 record. Wakefield hasn't exactly been pitching well either. In his last four trips to the hill, the seasoned veteran from Melbourne, Florida has been torched for 17 earned runs and 24 hits in 24 innings.
This is the Padres best chance for a victory in this series especially with their No. 1 starter on the mound. Take San Diego with Young. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
charlie <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->mlb. pittsburgh @ la angels under 7' runs (500*)
mlb. white sox-115 (30*)
mlb. colorado-115 (20*)
mlb. tampa bay-125 (20*)
mlb. san diego-120 (10*)
mlb. st.louis-110 (10*) Bonus Play
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->
MLB (Saturday): Play Over MLB (NL) teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the year facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts.
(48-19 since 1997.) (71.6%) PLAY: NYY / San Francisco OVER 8.5 (-115)
MLB (Saturday): Play Under MLB (AL) road teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team batting average of <=.265 versus a team with a bullpen ERA <=3.75 and a starting pitcher who allows less than 1.75 bases on balls per start.
(62-26 last 5 seasons.) (70.5%) PLAY: KC / Milwaukee UNDER 9 (+100)
Tom Stryker's Interleague Gut-Check Game of the Year
#978 SAN DIEGO with Young (-119) over Boston at 10:05 PM EST
San Diego had its chances last night but failed to convert Boston mistakes into runs especially in the first inning. Now, off three consecutive losses and a pair of road series at San Francisco and Los Angeles on deck, the Padres need this game like blood. In situations like this a team needs to respond especially with its ace on the mound. San Diego will do exactly that with Chris Young.
What's not to like about Chris in this spot? In six home starts this year, the tall right-hander out of Princeton University has allowed only five earned runs and 26 hits in 41.0 frames. That adds up to a marvelous 1.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02. Dating back to May 1st, a span of nine starts, Young has been untouchable surrendering just eight earned runs and 34 hits in 56.2 innings of work.
Boston's overall record of 47-25 is certainly impressive. However, with knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield on the mound, the Red Sox own a 7-7 record. Wakefield hasn't exactly been pitching well either. In his last four trips to the hill, the seasoned veteran from Melbourne, Florida has been torched for 17 earned runs and 24 hits in 24 innings.
This is the Padres best chance for a victory in this series especially with their No. 1 starter on the mound. Take San Diego with Young. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
charlie <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->mlb. pittsburgh @ la angels under 7' runs (500*)
mlb. white sox-115 (30*)
mlb. colorado-115 (20*)
mlb. tampa bay-125 (20*)
mlb. san diego-120 (10*)
mlb. st.louis-110 (10*) Bonus Play
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->
Saturday @ The Track Picks/previews
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, June 23
RACE ONE
EXPECT VALKYR was a good second in her debut. She broke fast, but inward, established her position, then tried hard in an above-average race. 'VALKYR's trainer (Marty Jones) has a solid return on investment for his second time starters. HI LILY HI LO is the most experienced runner with three starts. She's been third twice and should be an early factor. SPONTANEOUS ANA may be overlooked. She clipped heels and almost went down on the turn but didn't give up. An upset victory would not surprise.
RACE TWO
KALOOKAN DANCER cleared off as the favorite, cut out some fast fractions and finished second while well clear of the third place runner. Look for her to grab the lead again and take them wire to wire. LUCKY STAB was visually impressive winning a hillside sprint last time out. She has less traffic to weave through in this small field and can win this if ready. LADY MATILDA has been freshened and also packs a late wallop. Corey Nakatani takes the helm.
RACE THREE
I'M ALL OUT is ready to break through after four straight seconds. It's more a case of running into superior opponents than his will to win. Expect I'M ALL OUT to be much closer to the pace than usual, then overpower his rivals the last quarter. WHY YOU ASK was three lengths back of the top choice, but probably needed the race after an 11-week rest. She'll make it closer today. DEMON INSIDE is a fast-working newcomer from the Doug O'Neill stable. However, she'll have to have her running shoes on to defeat I'M ALL OUT.
RACE FOUR
WICKET WAGER heads a contentious field of mid-level fillies. She's been in the money six in a row, with three victories, and her stalking style always gives her a chance to win. ASIAN EYES was second in her last pair, but her lack of early speed is problematic. Agapito Delgadillo seems to her along fine with her. TOPPER'S SMILING has been spinning her wheels against better and now moves back to her purchase price. A clean break is mandatory if she's to compete from the inside slot.
RACE FIVE
LIKE RUNNING WATER was fourth in an extremely swift race for the class. They ran fast early and late and 'WATER never really knew what hit him. He'll get a much softer trip today and his gameness will land him in the winners circle. AUSTIN BARBER tuned up in a turf dash, setting the pace before finishing fourth. 'BARBER is clearly the speed of the contest. Though his best races may be behind him, 'BARBER is still capable of stealing a race at this level. GENERAL FOX fits with these, but the race shape is contrary to his running style.
RACE SIX
DEPUTY LAD has enjoyed a new lease on life since being introduced to Cushion Track. This former graded stakes caliber runner has ripped off three straight to begin the meeting and is the current favorite for "Claimer of the Meeting." Chalk up another one Mike Mitchell. CARELESS CANDIDATE has been haltered three straight and is currently housed in the John Sadler barn. He likely needed his last start and will be heard from late under top apprentice Joe Talamo. EASY MILLION hasn't hit paydirt in six outings this year and is stranded on the extreme outside. His best race will be needed to contend.
RACE SEVEN
HE'S THE RAGE was re-claimed for $80,000 by Ted West May 17. He runs best when allowed to race close up on a moderate pace, a situation he finds here. He continues to train well and can notch his eighth lifetime win. AWESOME GEM is the favorite and the one to beat. He's raced in several graded stakes this year and was victorious in the Grade 2 San Fernando in January. The main negative is that he'll have to close off slow fractions. C'MON TIGER stopped badly without any visible excuse earlier this meet. His previous races were all good, making his last dud even more puzzling. Baffert removes the blinkers.
RACE EIGHT
Two bright prospects in GOLDEN ***** and WORLDLY hook up in the 60th renewal of the Cinema Handicap. The edge goes to GOLDEN ***** off his dramatic nose victory over subsequent Affirmed winner Desert Code. Trainer James Cassidy did the right thing by giving GOLDEN ***** some time off after that taxing win. WORLDLY is perfect in this country, winning an allowance race at Santa Anita and then capturing the Will Rogers over this course. There is little separating the top pair. MR EDDIE BOY won a pair of races against inferior in the Bay Area and now ships south for Bob Hess. He should handle the others.
RACE NINE
WARREN'S ADVENTURE has been runnerup in her last two starts and now meets a subpar field for the class. Look for 'WARREN to track the pace from the outside and be along in time. ZOOM ZIP ZOOM has only run once and has room for improvement. She broke a step slowly from the rail, yet was a competitive third. Nakatani rides back, but she's stuck inside again. KENTUCKY WALTZ was only a half-length behind 'WARREN but was claimed by low-percentage trainer Steve Knapp.
Best Bet-DEPUTY LAD (6)<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
BELMONT
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Winaway (5th race)
First Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For Gill 2. Mighty Gulch 3. More Heck
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR GILL got the best of THEATRICAL GLORY after a long drive May 19, an effort that may have contributed to a slight regression on a speed-favoring track last time out; taken to rebound. MIGHTY GULCH edged the choice nine days ago, while making first start since April, when he ran twice in the span of six days; has plenty of room for improvement second time back. MORE HECK has been away since last December, but has always done his best running at Belmont (where he won three of four starts in 2006); has run well fresh.
Second Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Clifton Bay 2. Star Dixie 3. Bee Seventeen
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLIFTON BAY was off slow, moved closer around the far turn and finished gamely when a clear second in promising debut; has to deal with the inside post again, but gets some additional real estate to work with. STAR DIXIE lacked room on the inside in deep stretch when favored for her first local start; June 14 bullet work at 5fs mirrors the one she turned in eight days before that good race. BEE SEVENTEEN came from eleventh to get fourth with a good finish in first U.S. start, and first start in nearly 10 months; pedigree says yes to the stretch-out.
Third Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Americanus 2. Ice Man Cometh 3. Precise Alloy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMERICANUS stalked the pace, led midstretch, fought favored Grand Champion to the wire in a swiftly-run sprint first time off the claim; has been vastly improved in two starts on this track, beginning with a lengthy score at this distance. ICE MAN COMETH has been away since fading in $1 million Delta Jackpot, but workout pattern is encouraging, and layoff runners dominated last Saturday's card here (see Handicapper's Corner); maiden win came at this distance at expense of Count Fleet runner-up Johannesburg Star. PRECISE ALLOY shook loose through moderate fractions wiring statebred sprinters off a freshening; bounced 17 Beyer points off a similar figure when 1-2 at Fairplex last year.
Fourth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Really Rollicking 2. Sense of Speed 3. Jets Only
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REALLY ROLLICKING moved to a clear lead on the turn, held well for second in the faster division of May 17 turf sprint first out this year; two behind him have come back to win. SENSE OF SPEED removed bar shoe second start off the bench, and found best stride belatedly; may show more positional speed with switch back to leading rider. JETS ONLY raced greenly and picked up the pieces to finish second in fast-paced debut on dirt; top turf trainer is having a strong meet, with exacta finishes 50% of the time.
Fifth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Winaway 2. Bonus Size 3. Estimator
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINAWAY didn't fare particularly well on Aqueduct's inner track, but improved a bit on the main track in April, and then improved big-time for maiden win first time over this surface; entered backk at the same distance, need only maintain form to repeat. Unless, that is, BONUS SIZE realizes he has been on a good-bad-good-bad pattern of figures lately, and accordingly due for another good one; deep closer usually has too much to do late. ESTIMATOR forced a solid pace in the NY Stallion last out, and prior to that hooked a tiger in What a Tale, who is eyeing Sunday's Mike Lee.
Sixth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Lahudood 2. Wingspan 3. Brantley
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This may be a battle among the imports LAHUDOOD and WINGSPAN, a pair of very well connected 4-year-old fillies that are group stakes placed, and closely matched based on their top Racing Post ratings in France last season. Lahudood has the better-looking work tab, however, and seemed to run more consistently overseas while in slightly tougher spots, whether on the early lead or coming from behind. BRANTLEY moves to the next logical spot after a maiden win this course & distance over Madame Brillon (who returned to win Thursday), but had the misfortune to wind up in an exceptionally tough first-level allowance field.
Seventh Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Cammy's Choice 2. Western Sweep 3. City in the Clouds
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAMMY'S CHOICE stacks up nicely with the local New York-bred fillies based on any of her three races at Philly Park, and is on an identical work pattern (bullet 4fs eight days out) that took place for allowance win; stalker is ideally drawn to sit a good trip just off ZIP OF FOOLS and BROWN EYED BELLE. The promise of a contested pace also bodes well for WESTERN SWEEP, who outfinished NORDBERG and narrowly missed upsetting a similar overnight stake at almost 20-1 recently; never worse than second at this distance. CITY IN THE CLOUDS has been in the money last four dirt starts, notably a second in NY Stallion's Park Avenue division at 17-1; hard-used dueling through fast pace first time over this track, turns back to 6fs.
Eighth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Jade Queen 2. Barancella 3. Masseuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After JADE QUEEN set the pace in the Flower Bowl and nearly went all the way in her final start last year, you can be sure the New York BC was penciled in as her initial objective at age 4; useful tightener five weeks ago at a distance shorter than her best. BARANCELLA figures right with the top pick based on a line through their respective exploits vs. Honey Ryder (and also figures close with HOSTESS based on their respective efforts vs. Safari Queen); may be at her absolute best on yielding-to-soft ground. MASSEUSE, on the other hand, probably won the Beaugay in spite of the boggy going; trainer has won this race with Soaring Softly and Wonder Again, and she finishes like she'll get the 1 1/4 miles. MAKDERAH finished like a freight train beating N2X rivals in eye-catching manner first local start; appears to love firm turf.
Ninth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. You Sure 2. Elder Skatesman 3. Subversive Action
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YOU SURE showed some improvement on the figures first time on turf, and first time out in six months, then moved forward more significantly when stretched out in follow-up start; owner/trainer is batting .350 first-time Lasix, switches from double bug to steady veteran Mike Luzzi. ELDER SKATESMAN is the lone entrant to have reached 70 on the Beyer figures, and has done that several times; probably needed his first start in over seven months, also first-time Lasix. SUBVERSIVE ACTION comes off two improved efforts since getting on Belmont turf, the latest a troubled trip; stretch threat if able to get in.
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
CALDER
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
1 BIG BRIAN T moves to the next level after dueling from start to finish and holding on gamely to defeat next-out winners Third Dimension & Haventgotmywings at the distance. 5 THIRD DIMENSION, second behind Big Brian T on May 31, stretches out after defeating "two-lifetime" foes in the slop at 5 1/2 furlongs. 4 ALEX'S NOTEBOOK, who defeated $16K claimers at Gulfstream on Mar. 30, drops after failing to handle the turf vs. $40K claimers here on May 6.
1-5-4
Race 2 -
5 NINTH OF JULY should show more in the second start of her current form cycle after dueling and fading, as the favorite, in her local return vs. $40K maidens. 6 MEDOUSA STORM, a half to Quackers Appeal, who was 17 for 28 in the money on the turf, moves to the lawn after finishing a promising third in her career debut on a sealed sloppy track. 11 BALLERINA BUNNY is cutting back to 5 furlongs after posting the best last-race turf figure (66) when finishing third vs. $32K maidens at a mile and a sixteenth. 2 GOLD INVITATION, a half to local stakes winner Mach Ride, debuts for trainer Steve Standridge, who is 4 for 16 (25%) with his first-time starters.
5-6-11-2
Race 3 -
5 MOREAPPLAUSEPLEASE is stretching out after rallying to finish second vs. similar at a mile. Trainer Harold Schultz tabs Manoel Cruz to ride. 2 RED MERCURY is stepping up after posting the best last-race speed figure in the slop (49) when opening and relinquishing a 3-length lead to finish second vs. $12.5K maidens at the distance. 3 REMEMBER ROBIN will race with blinkers after dueling for the lead and fading to finish third behind Moreapplauseplease last out.
5-2-3
Race 4 -
4 HOWDY PARDNER and 7 SAMYAKSAM have been moving in opposite directions since they hooked up here in late April. The former, trained by Kirk Ziadie, has finished second in three consecutive races since proving no match for Samyaksam on Apr. 27 while the latter, trained by Mike McDonald, has faded to finish a disappointing sixth in a pair since defeating his nemesis by 7-plus lengths. 9 STICKY SKIPPY cuts back to a distance where he's undefeated (2-2-0-0) after finishing second in the slop vs. similar at 7 furlongs. 8 MAJOR PLAYER turns back to three-quarters (6-1-0-1) after finishing third behind Sticky Skippy last out.
4-7-9-8
Race 5 - THE LORD JUBAN
3 PICKAPOCKET, a multiple stakes winner on the turf during 2006, now in the Marty Wolfson barn, returns after failing to earn a check vs. better in both the Tropical Park Derby (G3) & the $75K Hallandale Beach. Note that Wolfson has a 26% win average with new acquisitions to his barn. 6 DRUMS OF THUNDER, a previous winner on the turf, returns after following an impressive campaign on the dirt in which he won the $100K What A Pleasure here, was second across town in the Holy Bull (G3), and sixth in the Fountain of Youth (G2). 7 VOORHEE'S BALLAD merits respect in soggy South Florida because he has shown the ability to run well on turf, dirt & wet tracks. 1 FAIR WEATHER STAN has been a model of consistency on the turf hitting the board in 5 of his last 6 starts (6-3-1-1).
3-6-7-1
Race 6 -
4 FINAL ARGUMENT, a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby runner up Closing Argument, has trained nicely in preparation for his career debut for Ed Plesa Jr. 2 SENSATIONAL IMAGE is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after encountering early trouble (steadied) when finishing fifth in his 7-furlong career debut. Note that trainer Kathleen O'Connell is 15% with horses stretching out in distance. 7 MIA CONCERTO, now in the Henry Collazo barn, moves to the main track after showing speed and fading late in a pair going longer on the turf. Manoel Cruz rides.
4-2-7
Race 7 -
2 LITTLE LUCIFER, 5 for 7 in the money on this course, drops into this $25K "three-lifetime" claimer after finishing third vs. $32K optional claimers at Tampa on Feb. 17. 5 IRISH TOUR is turning back to 7 1/2 furlongs after weakening late to finish third vs. $16K optional claimers in her local turf return at a mile and a sixteenth. 6 GREELEYLIKEALADY drops after an eventful outing here in which she was rank early and steadied twice when finishing ninth in a 'key' optional claimer that produced two next-out winners including Silver Charades, who won the All Along (G3) at Colonial last Sat. 7 CARICATURIST drew clear to defeat $32K maidens in the slop last out, and will now try to do the same in his turf debut. The son of Trippi is bred to handle the surface switch.
2-5-6-7
Race 8 -
2 KIPAROO should be ready to score in the third race back from the layoff after dueling and weakening to finish third behind 7 TRICKS NOT TREATS at 5 1/2 furlongs. The latter, who has finished second in 11 of his 32 races, turns back to five-eighths after finishing - you guessed it - second in 3 consecutive races vs. similar at the 5 1/2 - 6-furlong distance. 6 RUPERT'S RELICS steps up after posting the best last-race figure (75) when defeating "two-lifetime" claimers at the distance. 5 ROYAL STAR is turning back after encountering traffic in the stretch when finishing fourth behind the top two selections last out.
2-7-6-5
Race 9 -
8 CALL ME MISTER drops into this $25K "two-lifetime" event after rallying to get beat only 4 1/2 lengths in a 'key' $16K optional claimer that produced next-out winners Running Hot & Swift Mercedes. 4 MIDATLANTIC, 3 for 4 in the money on this course before the extended vacation, returns for trainer Bill White, who has a 32% win average with horses making the first start after an 180-day plus layoff. 2 STRIKING VISION, who threatened to notch this condition in 3 of 4 starts at Gulfstream, stretches out hoping to rebound from a poor showing here at 7 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' turf. 10 MASSASOIT, 2 for 3 on the Calder turf, hopes to show more after failing to handle a sealed sloppy track last out.
8-4-2-10
Race 10 -
3 CLEVER DAME is turning back slightly after following her strong bottom level maiden win at this distance with a second place finish vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth in the slop. 6 DIAMOND BRIANNA faces winners after holding on gamely to defeat $12.5K maidens at a mile. Trainer Bill White, 20% with horses winning back-to-back races, has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle again. 1 FAVORITE BABY turns back after encountering trouble on the turn (steadied) when finishing third behind Clever Dame last out.
3-6-1
Race 11 -
7 FLANKERS LADY makes the first start since her impressive 2-year-old debut victory in which she drew clear to defeat three next-out winners in a 'key' 5-furlong maiden test. Trainer Mike McDonald, 3 for 7 (43%) with the longer than 180-day layoff, has her training sharply for her first race since Aug. '06. 4 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN, the only 4-time winner in the field, proved she could compete vs. these when she finished a well-meant second here at 6 1/2 furlongs. 8 MARBLE LAKE should bounce back after following her 9-length maiden score at the distance with a third place finish behind Joan's Royal Dawn at 6 1/2. 3 SECRET GIRLFRIEND let the cat out of the bag when she drew off to win her career debut at the distance in impressive fashion.
7-4-8-3
Race 12 -
7 NINGBO makes his allowance debut after rewarding his many backers with an impressive maiden victory at the distance. His biggest challenge will surely come from 3 MARNESIA'S BIG BOY. The improving son of Halo's Image, who beat Ningbo by a nose on May 5, turns back to a mile after bumping hard at the start prior to getting beat a nose vs. first-level allowance competition at a mile and a sixteenth. 1 HANDSOME BRUNO is turning back after encountering trouble on the far turn when finishing fourth behind repeat winner Notice Me Now at a mile and a sixteenth.
7-3-1
Race 13 -
7 BULLET PROOF MAN, who has finished second or third in 11 of 16 races, including 3 of 5 at 7 furlongs, stretches out hoping the added real estate produces the elusive maiden win (16-0-7-4). 1 MY MAN FRANK merits respect after finishing a distant second at this level and distance last out. 3 BANGKOK is stretching out without blinkers after recovering from early trouble (steadied) to finish third vs. similar at 5 furlongs. 5 SHOULDABEENAMARINE is hoping to find a little more for the stretch drive after finishing a distance third behind My Man Frank last out.
BEST BET: RACE 9 - CALL ME MISTER
LONG SHOT: RACE 5 - LATER GATER
7-1-3-5
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
PUT UP OR (7) finished well in a quickly run race at this level last out after pressing the pace. He figures to chase Mybelleman today, but has the advantage of being to the outside of that one. MYBELLEMAN (4) has good speed, but has stopped in all of his starts and must get an additional half-furlong today. KENWIN (1) turned in an even effort against better last out and drops to the level from which he was claimed. He should up the pieces if the top two go too fast.
7-4-1
Race 2 -
TWISTED TALE (3) debuts for leading juvenile trainer Steve Asmussen and shows that barn’s typically steady – but not overly flashy – workout pattern. Her pedigree has plenty of speed and class influences. TAKING STOCK (5) debuts off sharp works that include a second best half-mile her. She is bred to be precocious and looks ready to go. SUBTLE ALY (4) is a stablemate of the top pick with credentials to be a factor in her debut. EXPRESS CHICK (2) can be expected to improve off her debut in which she showed early speed before she gave way.
3-5-4
Race 3 -
BARGAINWITHTHEDEVIL (2) could not handle starter allowance company off the claim last out and returns to the level at which he won his first start of 2007. He has tactical speed and should be in a good position throughout. COPPERTUDE (4) steps up off the claim for the Fahey stable, which is having a solid year. He was an easy winner last out and will likely be part of the early pace. SUMMER MAN (6) ran second in a quickly run $16,000 claimer for his new connections and looks like a sold contender as he drops a class level. He has a good local record and can sit in a stalking spot behind the speed.
2-4-6
Race 4 -
BOLD TRUST (1) shipped across the country off a runner-up effort in his debut and was favored in a stakes race over Hollywood Park’s synthetic surface. He was stuck on the inside before he got out for a late run and the return to maidens gives him the edge in this quality field. BLACKBERRY ROAD (6) closed ground late in his debut and is eligible to show improvement. MITIGATION (2) ran well after acting up in the post parade prior to his debut. He could improve off that start if he can keep focused on racing.
1-6-2
Race 5 -
SLAM MY HEART (1) makes his first start for a claiming price and looms as the one to beat off previous main track efforts that include a big win from off the pace at Mountaineer. VICTORY BLUE (6) was outrun when he dropped back to a sprint last out and is better suited to today's distance. He faced a strong field that day, but today’s competition is not as deep. CRAFTY MARK (4) returns to the claiming level and distance at which he was able to win over the winter at Fair Grounds. He has failed to contend in allowance company since that victory, but today’s drop in class could get him back in form.
1-6-4
Race 6 -
R SMOKEN STAR (9) takes a significant drop in class as he makes his third start off a long layoff. He chased decent fractions while sprinting in his last two starts and could be able to go a bit easier on the front as he tries the mile today. PULPIT EXCHANGE (3) has been idle since being claimed in April at Oaklawn. He faced open claimers then, but is the one to beat today as he runs against bottom level conditioned claimers for the meet’s leading stable. JULISKA (6) and WHAT THE DEVIL (12) have been knocking at the door at this level and are capable of competing with the top two as well.
9-3-6
Race 7 -
MANOFTHEWEST (1) has gone off as a short priced favorite before turning in runner-up finishes in both of his starts. He figures to again be the prohibitive choice and a solid workout since his last race indicates that he may succeed today. YONEGWA (7) has also run well in both his starts and has the advantage of being drawn outside of the top choice. MIKE LOWERY (6) has trained well for his debut over Keeneland’s Polytrack and has the pedigree to come out running.
1-7-6
Race 8 -
I BELIEVE IN ME (2) did not seem to handle the 1 ½-mile distance in the Grade III Louisville Handicap. He turns back in distance to face allowance horses and should get a good ground saving trip from just off the pace. WESTMORELAND (7) takes blinkers off for today which may enable him to settle better early in the race. ELECTRIC CHANT (1) and ALPHA CAPO (1A) go as an entry with Borel named on both, which suggests that only one will start. Alpha Capo just missed in a strong allowance race last out and is in good form since his return to turf. HIS HOLINESS (4) is on a nice two race win streak including a victory over next out winner Yate's Black Cat. He likes to be close to the pace, but could find some company there today. Main track choices: Electric Chant/Alpa Capo entry (1,1A), I Believe In Me (2).
2-7-1
Race 9 -
TORA (3) was unlucky at the start last out when she stumbled while leaving the gate from an inside post. She came up a neck short to a good filly in Sheets and gets a better post today. TIME’S MISTRESS (4) is a graded stakes winner at the distance who has the ability to rate just off a potential strong pace. MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM (2) is a bit inconsistent, but ran a huge race here in November closing off the pace to lose by a nose to Floral Park.
3-4-2
Race 10 -
A.P. DREAM (9) must overcome an outside draw, but has a better chance to get over if the temporary rail is down. She has a beautiful pedigree and seemed to improve in her first turf start, and looks capable of another move forward today. LADY ATTACK (6) also moved forward with an easy maiden victory in her first turf start. She can improve as she makes her second start on the grass. TOUGH APPLES (8) raced evenly behind the top choice last out and looks well spotted to get a share of this. Main Track choices: Molly By Golly (11), Tough Apples (8).
9-6-8
Race 11 -
CARSON CAMP (2) ships in off some decent efforts in Texas for the Asmussen stable and is well placed to be effective here at the maiden $30,000 level. He has speed to gain good position from his inside draw and looks tough with this field. GREAT NORTHERN (10) drops in class as he makes his Churchill debut. He had a couple of good performances at Turfway this winter that would make him a contender here. MAGICAL COURT (4) has had many chances that include a win at this level last out from which he was disqualified for bumping down the lane. He will be relying on speed up front to set up his late run.
2-10-4
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Cry Havoc, 8-1
(6th) Slate, 6-1
Belmont Park (4th) Jets Only, 3-1
(5th) Winaway, 3-1
Calder Race Course (2nd) Medousa Storm, 6-1
(7th) Little Lucifer, 4-1
Canterbury Park (1st) Man of Men, 4-1
(2nd) French Prize, 4-1
Charles Town (5th) Noon at Ryan's, 6-1
(8th) Norjac, 3-1
Churchill Downs (4th) Blackberry Road, 4-1
(6th) What the Devil, 8-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Fourthirteen, 5-1
(5th) Talkforfree, 10-1
Delaware Park (2nd) Nucon, 7-2
(3rd) Catoctin Creek, 8-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Looks Lika Fish, 3-1
(4th) Joyce's Gift, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (4th) Danielle's Charm, 7-2
(9th) Mt. Ree Tah, 5-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Bold Brian, 7-2
(5th) Axel Rhodes, 3-1
Great Lakes Downs (4th) Brushher, 5-1
(6th) Timely Factor, 5-1
Hastings Park (6th) Earl's Diamond, 7-2
(8th) Big Shiny, 8-1
Hollywood Park (4th) Asian Eyes, 5-1
(9th) Zoom Zip Zoom, 3-1
Indiana Downs (1st) Aramadas Turn, 7-2
(9th) Pay Check, 4-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Primed Pioneer, 9-2
(8th) Front Nine, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (3rd) Dashing Dax, 7-2
(4th) Louis G, 3-1
Monmouth Park (7th) Change Your Image, 7-2
(8th) Joey P., 5-1
Mountaineer (1st) Sultry Creek, 7-2
(5th) Nevereveryield, 6-1
Northlands (5th) Ain't No Options, 5-1
(8th) Ms. Sarah Vye, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (9th) Grand in Grey, 4-1
(10th) Power by Leigh, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Ricardao, 6-1
(7th) Go On With It Son, 7-2
River Downs (6th) Jp'shanna, 7-2
(8th) Mr. Popeye, 4-1
Suffolk Downs (7th) I'm No Brat, 6-1
(9th) Midnight Flair, 10-1
Thistledown (5th) Believe Your Lover, 7-2
(9th) Dawn's Revenge, 6-1
Woodbine (8th) Lyrically, 5-1
(9th) Wordly, 10-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
NEW YORK S. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/4MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 HOSTESS BOND HAROLD JAMES HILL C 116
2 JADE QUEEN PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 116
3 VACARE CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE PRADO E S 123
4 BARANCELLA (FR) FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 116
5 MASSEUSE TONER JAMES J VELASQUEZ CORNE 120
6 FOR ALWAYS MARTIN CARLOS F JARA FERNANDO 116
7 LA DOLCE VITA HENNIG MARK DESORMEAUX K J 120
8 MAKDERAH (IRE) MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 116
Eight distaffers will contest a deep renewal of the $250,000 New York Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Belmont Park on Saturday, and MASSEUSE (Dynaformer) is a tempting 8-1 on the morning line for the 1 1/4-mile affair on the inner turf. The James Toner mare has endured a stop-and-start career because of injury, but she has shown real talent in her sparse stakes appearances. As a sophomore, she came within a neck of My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) in the 2005 Virginia Oaks before going to the sidelines for a year. Her 2006 campaign was also cut short by a setback, but she has at last been able to string together a couple of quality efforts so far this season.
Masseuse returned from a seven-month layoff to finish a creditable third to Cassydora (GB) (Darshaan) and My Typhoon in the Hillsborough S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. She moved forward off that tightener to capture the Beaugay H. (G3) at Aqueduct, even though she wasn't loving the rain-softened ground that day, and the dawdling pace didn't suit her closing style. Her abundant class got her through, and she scored by an ultra-game neck while earning a 115 BRIS Late Pace rating. The dark bay will step up to 10 furlongs for the first time here, but she is bred to handle the distance, and she loves Belmont (4-3-0-0). Cornelio Velasquez picks up the mount on Masseuse, who could break into the top echelon of the filly and mare turf set with a winning rally.
MAKDERAH (Ire) (Danehill) also appears to be an overlay at her morning-line odds of 8-1. The impeccably bred bay broke her maiden last year at Newbury, defeating males, and then placed in three straight stakes. On two of those occasions, she vainly chased Red Evie (Intikhab), who would go on to capture a pair of Group 1 contests, including the Lockinge S. (Eng-G1) two back versus males. Makderah finally broke through with a clear victory in the October S. at Ascot before concluding her European career with a poor performance. Shipped stateside to join Kiaran McLaughlin, the Shadwell Stable colorbearer was a one-paced runner-up in her 2007 debut in a Keeneland allowance, but she put it all together against similar company next time out at Belmont. The four-year-old exploded through the stretch to romp by 5 3/4 lengths, posting a 107 Late Pace figure. Makderah is well qualified to make her presence felt beneath new rider Alan Garcia.
VACARE (Lear Fan) has earned her 2-1 favoritism on the morning line, as well as her top weight of 123 pounds, by virtue of being the only Grade 1 winner in the field. The once-beaten filly deserves great respect, but she is entering this event on the heels of her first career loss in the Gamely Breeders' Cup S. (G1). Vacare was in perfect striking position in that contest, but Citronnade (Lemon Drop Kid) and Price Tag (GB) (Dansili [GB]) simply kicked far clear of her at Hollywood Park. Perhaps a return to her home base will help her to get back on track. On the other hand, her Late Pace numbers in her two outings this year are well below her triple-digit ratings from 2006, when she crowned a perfect season with a score in the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1). Note that Edgar Prado, who rode Masseuse last time, sticks with Vacare.
JADE QUEEN (Giant's Causeway) will probably try to dictate terms on the front end, a strategy that very nearly worked in the Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) over this course and distance last October. The Todd Pletcher filly kept on bravely that day and was just worn down late by Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval) and Film Maker. Shelved for the rest of the season, Jade Queen returned with another gritty third-place effort in the Steal a Kiss S. in May. She's eligible to improve significantly with that race under her girth, but we suspect she'll succumb late. BARANCELLA (Fr) (Acatenango) has placed in eight stakes over the course of her commendable career, and we'd love to see her record a long-overdue win at this level. This spot doesn't look any easier, though. The Bobby Frankel-trained chestnut will come charging from off the pace, but her Late Pace numbers are typically less than those of the top contenders. Barancella will probably have to settle for a minor award once again.
LA DOLCE VITA (Quiet American) was rounding into career-best form earlier this year, capturing a pair of stakes and finishing a respectable third in the Orchid H. (G3). She took a step backward last time out when winding up fourth in the 1 3/8-mile Sheepshead Bay H. (G2). Cutting back slightly in trip might help her, but she looks a cut below the principals. HOSTESS (Chester House) finished well for third in the Sheepshead Bay and enters on the upswing for James Bond. The four-year-old will have to improve considerably to fill that same placing here.
FOR ALWAYS (War Chant) was blown away by Makderah last time out, and there's no reason to project a reversal of fortune.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MASSEUSE
2nd-MAKDERAH (Ire)
3rd-VACARE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
ARLINGTON CLASSIC S. (G3), 9TH-AP, $150,000, 3YO, 1 1/16MT, 5:00 P.M. CDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 VAUNT (GB) MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 119
2 PLEASANT STRIKE PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 119
3 LOVANGO ROBERTSON MCLEAN MARTINEZ S B 119
4 STARBASE LUKAS D WAYNE RAZO E JR 119
5 QUASICOBRA BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 119
6 BETA CAPO ASMUSSEN STEVEN M EMIGH C A 121
7 RIVERSIDE RASCAL LEWELLYN PAUL LAVIOLETTE B S 119
8 TOM ARCHDEACON SMITH AUSTIN STERLING L J JR 119
9 PIRATE SAINT DIVITO JAMES P FERRER J C 119
Saturday's $150,000 Arlington Classic (G3) kicks off the Mid-America Triple, a three-race series for three-year-olds on the turf that also consists of the July 21 American Derby (G2) and August 11 Secretariat S. (G1) at Arlington Park, and there is no standout among the nine entrants. We'll tab PLEASANT STRIKE (Smart Strike) in the 1 1/16-mile event.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Pleasant Strike ran a big one when breaking his maiden by eight lengths in his turf debut in late January. He was thrown to the wolves next time out, finishing sixth against a strong field in the Hallandale Beach S., and then recorded a fine third against allowance rivals at Keeneland. The winner, Inca King (Sir Cat), posted an excellent win in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) last Saturday, and the runner-up in that allowance took fourth. Pleasant Strike exits a victory in an off-the-turf allowance at Arlington, strolling to a 1 1/4-length score over the Polytrack, and he'll return to his favorite surface in the Arlington Classic. The improving colt won't face the stiffest competition, and we'll look for jockey Rene Douglas to sit a good stalking trip from his inside post before pouncing.
QUASICOBRA (Wild Rush) could be ready to make some noise at the stakes level for trainer Patrick Biancone. A maiden winner over Polytrack three starts back, he followed it with a close second versus allowance foes over the same surface at Keeneland. The dark bay gelding tried turf in a Churchill Downs allowance last time out, and he gamely fought through the stretch against a solid group of rivals, hitting the wire first before suffering a tough-luck disqualification. It was still a very commendable showing for the lightly raced colt, and Quasicobra might put it all together in this spot under Julien Leparoux.
TOM ARCHDEACON (Aljabr) has shown an affinity for Arlington's turf (4-1-3-0) and exits a late-running score in the Awad S. on May 28. He did catch yielding ground that afternoon, but he's proven that he can handle firm conditions as well. The Austin Smith trainee netted a 105 BRIS Late Pace rating two starts back, and he could make an impact on Saturday given the presence of some early speed in the line-up.
BETA CAPO (Langfuhr) figures to use his quickness to his advantage, and the Steve Asmussen charge is a threat to last a long way under Chris Emigh. He recorded a front-running win in the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge S. two starts back and exits a decent third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, over soft turf in the U.S.A. S. at Lone Star Park. Beta Capo should appreciate a return to firm conditions, and we'll use him on the bottom of some exotics.
LOVANGO (Capote) didn't enjoy a clean trip when third in the Awad, and he gave a good account of himself in his first turf start. The McLean Robertson runner earned solid BRIS Speed and Pace numbers earlier this year when competing at Oaklawn Park and appears headed in the right direction presently. He'll be tested for class in this spot, but Lovango is a threat to crash the gimmicks at long odds (12-1 on the morning line).
VAUNT (GB) (Averti) is the 5-2 favorite on the morning line and will make his first start for new trainer Bill Mott. Third in the about 6 1/2-furlong Baldwin S. (G3) three starts back, the bay gelding exits a close second in the six-furlong Harry Henson S. at Hollywood Park. Vaunt will enter this event fresh and could be dangerous in his first start for his Hall of Fame conditioner, but his form is much better around one turn, with unplaced showings in both two-turn efforts in America. We wouldn't suggest throwing him out of exotics consideration, but we'll try to beat him. STARBASE (Tale of the Cat) finished a surprising second two starts back in the Lexington S. (G2) and was then given some time off by trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He returned with a dull sixth in the Ohio Derby (G2) earlier this month and will now revert to turf. He didn't run well over the green when making his career bow, and we're not excited about his chances here. He will be dropping in class, however.
PIRATE SAINT (Put It Back) exits a couple of solid showings over the turf in Chicago, but he enjoyed the luxury of an inside post on both occasions and will have to overcome the far outside here. His Speed and Pace numbers are a little low, and we'll give the dark bay a start at the graded level. RIVERSIDE RASCAL (Skip Away) will show speed, but he appears overmatched in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PLEASANT STRIKE
2nd-QUASICOBRA
3rd-TOM ARCHDEACON
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SALVATOR MILE H. (G3), 9TH-MTH, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 4:42 P.M. EDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 INDY WIND TARRANT AMY MADRID MARIO 119
2 GOTTCHA GOLD PLESA EDWARD JR LOPEZ C C 117
3 LAWYER RON PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
4 TAKE THE BLUFF VIOLETTE RICHARD JR LEZCANO JOSE 117
5 CHUCKER DUTROW RICHARD E CASTRO E 117
Oaklawn H. (G2) winner LAWYER RON (Langfuhr), who comes off a close third in the Metropolitan H. (G1), is a proverbial lock in Saturday's $150,000 Salvator Mile H. (G3) at Monmouth Park. The Todd Pletcher pupil towers over his four rivals and will enter the starting gate as the prohibitive odds-on favorite under stable rider John Velazquez. The four-year-old colt will gain valuable experience at the seashore oval and could be pointed toward the new $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which will be decided this year at one mile and 70 yards in order to accommodate a potential 14-horse field.
Lawyer Ron, an earner of nearly $1.9 million, overcame trouble to easily win his seasonal debut at this distance at Gulfstream Park. In his next start, he stalked the early pace, moved to the fore from the outside on his own courage around the second turn, opened up a daylight advantage turning for home, then drew off through the stretch under token encouragement to win the nine-furlong Oaklawn by four lengths as the popular 1-2 choice. Most recently, Lawyer Ron rallied four wide turning for home, dug in from between foes in upper stretch, challenged the eventual winner Corinthian (Pulpit) near the furlong-marker, then diminished slightly in the final yards before finishing third, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths, as the favorite in the prestigious Met Mile.
None of his four rivals have won a graded stakes race, and at least three of them like to be on or very near the early lead. As a result, Lawyer Ron should sit a perfect stalking trip. For punters, the problem will be whether the risk/reward ratio is worth it.
In order to find some value in the race, we're going with INDY WIND (A.P. Indy) and GOTTCHA GOLD (Coronado's Quest) to complete the exacta.
After being bumped at the break and dropping far behind, Indy Wind rallied to win the two-turn Frisk Me Now S. by open lengths over this surface on Memorial Day. The Amy Tarrant trainee owns an impressive record (6-4-1-1) at this venue and could be the lone closer with a similar trip. Gottcha Gold ran off to a huge lead and set blazing fractions of :21 2/5, :44 and 1:08 3/5 before holding on gamely for runner-up honors in the one mile and 70-yard Frisk Me Now. The bay colt has won or placed in four stakes races over this surface and could have a class edge over the one above. He could be the one to catch with similar tactics.
TAKE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) set a relatively fast pace before fading to fourth, beaten 10 1/2 lengths, in the William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) on the Preakness S. (G1) undercard. The chestnut won his first two starts of the season, but the Schaefer was his first stakes race, and he could be an underlay to complete the exacta.
After getting beat twice for a tag on the grass, CHUCKER (Running Stag) rolled through his first three non-claiming conditions on dirt. Our concern is that he could be compromised by the outside draw as well as the company.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LAWYER RON
2nd-INDY WIND
3rd-GOTTCHA GOLD
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
CINEMA BREEDERS' CUP H. (G3), 8TH-HOL, $150,000, 3YO, 1 1/8MT, 4:53 P.M. PDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 STAR INSIDE (IRE) CARAVA JACK ALMEIDA G F 114
2 GWEEBARRA (GB) DRYSDALE NEIL TALAMO JOSEPH 115
3 WORLDLY (GB) CECIL B D A ESPINOZA V 120
4 GOLDEN ***** (IRE) CASSIDY JAMES BLANC B 119
5 LEVEL RED HOFMANS DAVID GRYDER A T 116
6 STREETS AHEAD (GB) DRYSDALE NEIL VALDIVIA J JR 115
7 MR EDDIE BOY HESS R B JR BAZE M C 116
8 TYCOON DOBY GALLAGHER PATRICK SOLIS A 114
Saturday's Cinema Breeders' Cup H. (G3) is shaping up to be a match between GOLDEN ***** (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and WORLDLY (GB) (Selkirk) over Hollywood Park's turf. Each has scored in his past two races, but we're going with the James Cassidy-trained Golden ***** to come out on top here.
The chestnut colt began his career in England, breaking his maiden at Salisbury, before stepping up three starts later at Bath to take a seven-furlong allowance. That race rounded out Golden *****' juvenile season, and he reappeared in the United States for his three-year-old campaign. Golden ***** worked a bullet at Santa Anita in March, then made his U.S. debut in the La Puente S., rallying from near the back that day to record a nose victory on the wire. Desert Code (E Dubai), second in the La Puente, returned to be a neck third in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial (G3) before capturing the Affirmed H. (G3) last Sunday. Golden ***** will be stretching out an extra eighth of a mile here, but his 97 BRIS Speed and Late Pace rating in his stakes bow tells us that he'll be able handle the added ground. Brice Blanc will be back in the saddle on Saturday.
Worldly followed a similar path as Golden *****, breaking his maiden at Wolverhampton in England and then coming to the United States for his three-year-old season. The Ben Cecil charge posted a nice three-quarter of a length allowance win going nine furlongs on Santa Anita's turf in April, then stepped up in class and reverted in distance to the take the eight-furlong Will Rogers S. (G3) last out. The gray gelding earned an 89 Speed figure and a 99 Late Pace rating for his stakes victory and will challenge for it all here under Victor Espinoza.
MR EDDIE BOY (Lemon Drop Kid) has blossomed since transferring to the turf two starts back. The Bob Hess Jr. trainee broke his maiden on Golden Gate Fields' turf before taking the Alcatraz S. back at that track. He rallied from midpack that day to earn a 106 Late Pace figure, and has been working on Hollywood Park's green to prepare for this one. Mr Eddie Boy doesn't look to threaten our top two, but he could definitely make a place for himself in the bottom of the exotics. Michael Baze has the call.
TYCOON DOBY (Cherokee Run) is another who has shown new life since moving to the turf. The bay three-year-old took his maiden on Bay Meadows' green, then shipped to Hollywood to capture a one-mile allowance last out by a head. The Paddy Gallagher-trained colt posted a bullet six-furlong move on Hollywood's Cushion Track on June 14 and will challenge Mr Eddie Boy for the show spot here. Alex Solis, who has missed just one ride aboard Tycoon Doby, will be in the irons.
STAR INSIDE (Ire) (Key of Luck) was a decent stakes-placed performer in Ireland, but has run sixth in both starts, the La Puente and Alcatraz, since coming stateside. The bay gelding could use the added distance here to get a bit closer and earn a share. Consider for the bottom of the gimmicks -- if he shows up for the race, since he just worked five furlongs at Santa Anita on Friday.
LEVEL RED (Aptitude) will be making his turf bow here, and the Grade 2-placed runner needs to improve off his previous two starts to have any chance at a check. We'll just watch for now. STREETS AHEAD (GB) (Beat Hollow [GB]) is a listed winner in England, but hasn't factored in two starts since coming to North America. GWEEBARRA (GB) (Lomitas [GB]) scored in an allowance in his U.S. debut last out, but might not be able to keep up here. We'll let these two beat us.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GOLDEN ***** (Ire)
2nd-WORLDLY (GB)
3rd-MR EDDIE BOY
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Lone Star for Saturday June 23, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Lone Star
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#3 MAGIC THORNE (ML=9/5)
MAGIC THORNE - The latest fig of 84 is the top last race speed fig in the field. Is ranked at the top in earnings per race. A dominant try in this race can increase the lifetime total.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TRICK BAG (ML=2/1), #1A TEXAS DUDE (ML=2/1), #6 RIVA'S IMAGE (ML=5/2)
TRICK BAG - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing talent on Jun 3rd. Doubtful that the speed figure he recorded on June 3rd will hold up in this race. TEXAS DUDE - 2/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races. Disappointing speed figure last out at Lone Star at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this pony will improve too much in today's race. RIVA'S IMAGE - There may be a set back this time around, after the big effort last time out. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 MAGIC THORNE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, June 23
RACE ONE
EXPECT VALKYR was a good second in her debut. She broke fast, but inward, established her position, then tried hard in an above-average race. 'VALKYR's trainer (Marty Jones) has a solid return on investment for his second time starters. HI LILY HI LO is the most experienced runner with three starts. She's been third twice and should be an early factor. SPONTANEOUS ANA may be overlooked. She clipped heels and almost went down on the turn but didn't give up. An upset victory would not surprise.
RACE TWO
KALOOKAN DANCER cleared off as the favorite, cut out some fast fractions and finished second while well clear of the third place runner. Look for her to grab the lead again and take them wire to wire. LUCKY STAB was visually impressive winning a hillside sprint last time out. She has less traffic to weave through in this small field and can win this if ready. LADY MATILDA has been freshened and also packs a late wallop. Corey Nakatani takes the helm.
RACE THREE
I'M ALL OUT is ready to break through after four straight seconds. It's more a case of running into superior opponents than his will to win. Expect I'M ALL OUT to be much closer to the pace than usual, then overpower his rivals the last quarter. WHY YOU ASK was three lengths back of the top choice, but probably needed the race after an 11-week rest. She'll make it closer today. DEMON INSIDE is a fast-working newcomer from the Doug O'Neill stable. However, she'll have to have her running shoes on to defeat I'M ALL OUT.
RACE FOUR
WICKET WAGER heads a contentious field of mid-level fillies. She's been in the money six in a row, with three victories, and her stalking style always gives her a chance to win. ASIAN EYES was second in her last pair, but her lack of early speed is problematic. Agapito Delgadillo seems to her along fine with her. TOPPER'S SMILING has been spinning her wheels against better and now moves back to her purchase price. A clean break is mandatory if she's to compete from the inside slot.
RACE FIVE
LIKE RUNNING WATER was fourth in an extremely swift race for the class. They ran fast early and late and 'WATER never really knew what hit him. He'll get a much softer trip today and his gameness will land him in the winners circle. AUSTIN BARBER tuned up in a turf dash, setting the pace before finishing fourth. 'BARBER is clearly the speed of the contest. Though his best races may be behind him, 'BARBER is still capable of stealing a race at this level. GENERAL FOX fits with these, but the race shape is contrary to his running style.
RACE SIX
DEPUTY LAD has enjoyed a new lease on life since being introduced to Cushion Track. This former graded stakes caliber runner has ripped off three straight to begin the meeting and is the current favorite for "Claimer of the Meeting." Chalk up another one Mike Mitchell. CARELESS CANDIDATE has been haltered three straight and is currently housed in the John Sadler barn. He likely needed his last start and will be heard from late under top apprentice Joe Talamo. EASY MILLION hasn't hit paydirt in six outings this year and is stranded on the extreme outside. His best race will be needed to contend.
RACE SEVEN
HE'S THE RAGE was re-claimed for $80,000 by Ted West May 17. He runs best when allowed to race close up on a moderate pace, a situation he finds here. He continues to train well and can notch his eighth lifetime win. AWESOME GEM is the favorite and the one to beat. He's raced in several graded stakes this year and was victorious in the Grade 2 San Fernando in January. The main negative is that he'll have to close off slow fractions. C'MON TIGER stopped badly without any visible excuse earlier this meet. His previous races were all good, making his last dud even more puzzling. Baffert removes the blinkers.
RACE EIGHT
Two bright prospects in GOLDEN ***** and WORLDLY hook up in the 60th renewal of the Cinema Handicap. The edge goes to GOLDEN ***** off his dramatic nose victory over subsequent Affirmed winner Desert Code. Trainer James Cassidy did the right thing by giving GOLDEN ***** some time off after that taxing win. WORLDLY is perfect in this country, winning an allowance race at Santa Anita and then capturing the Will Rogers over this course. There is little separating the top pair. MR EDDIE BOY won a pair of races against inferior in the Bay Area and now ships south for Bob Hess. He should handle the others.
RACE NINE
WARREN'S ADVENTURE has been runnerup in her last two starts and now meets a subpar field for the class. Look for 'WARREN to track the pace from the outside and be along in time. ZOOM ZIP ZOOM has only run once and has room for improvement. She broke a step slowly from the rail, yet was a competitive third. Nakatani rides back, but she's stuck inside again. KENTUCKY WALTZ was only a half-length behind 'WARREN but was claimed by low-percentage trainer Steve Knapp.
Best Bet-DEPUTY LAD (6)<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
BELMONT
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Winaway (5th race)
First Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For Gill 2. Mighty Gulch 3. More Heck
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR GILL got the best of THEATRICAL GLORY after a long drive May 19, an effort that may have contributed to a slight regression on a speed-favoring track last time out; taken to rebound. MIGHTY GULCH edged the choice nine days ago, while making first start since April, when he ran twice in the span of six days; has plenty of room for improvement second time back. MORE HECK has been away since last December, but has always done his best running at Belmont (where he won three of four starts in 2006); has run well fresh.
Second Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Clifton Bay 2. Star Dixie 3. Bee Seventeen
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLIFTON BAY was off slow, moved closer around the far turn and finished gamely when a clear second in promising debut; has to deal with the inside post again, but gets some additional real estate to work with. STAR DIXIE lacked room on the inside in deep stretch when favored for her first local start; June 14 bullet work at 5fs mirrors the one she turned in eight days before that good race. BEE SEVENTEEN came from eleventh to get fourth with a good finish in first U.S. start, and first start in nearly 10 months; pedigree says yes to the stretch-out.
Third Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Americanus 2. Ice Man Cometh 3. Precise Alloy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMERICANUS stalked the pace, led midstretch, fought favored Grand Champion to the wire in a swiftly-run sprint first time off the claim; has been vastly improved in two starts on this track, beginning with a lengthy score at this distance. ICE MAN COMETH has been away since fading in $1 million Delta Jackpot, but workout pattern is encouraging, and layoff runners dominated last Saturday's card here (see Handicapper's Corner); maiden win came at this distance at expense of Count Fleet runner-up Johannesburg Star. PRECISE ALLOY shook loose through moderate fractions wiring statebred sprinters off a freshening; bounced 17 Beyer points off a similar figure when 1-2 at Fairplex last year.
Fourth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Really Rollicking 2. Sense of Speed 3. Jets Only
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REALLY ROLLICKING moved to a clear lead on the turn, held well for second in the faster division of May 17 turf sprint first out this year; two behind him have come back to win. SENSE OF SPEED removed bar shoe second start off the bench, and found best stride belatedly; may show more positional speed with switch back to leading rider. JETS ONLY raced greenly and picked up the pieces to finish second in fast-paced debut on dirt; top turf trainer is having a strong meet, with exacta finishes 50% of the time.
Fifth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Winaway 2. Bonus Size 3. Estimator
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINAWAY didn't fare particularly well on Aqueduct's inner track, but improved a bit on the main track in April, and then improved big-time for maiden win first time over this surface; entered backk at the same distance, need only maintain form to repeat. Unless, that is, BONUS SIZE realizes he has been on a good-bad-good-bad pattern of figures lately, and accordingly due for another good one; deep closer usually has too much to do late. ESTIMATOR forced a solid pace in the NY Stallion last out, and prior to that hooked a tiger in What a Tale, who is eyeing Sunday's Mike Lee.
Sixth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Lahudood 2. Wingspan 3. Brantley
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This may be a battle among the imports LAHUDOOD and WINGSPAN, a pair of very well connected 4-year-old fillies that are group stakes placed, and closely matched based on their top Racing Post ratings in France last season. Lahudood has the better-looking work tab, however, and seemed to run more consistently overseas while in slightly tougher spots, whether on the early lead or coming from behind. BRANTLEY moves to the next logical spot after a maiden win this course & distance over Madame Brillon (who returned to win Thursday), but had the misfortune to wind up in an exceptionally tough first-level allowance field.
Seventh Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Cammy's Choice 2. Western Sweep 3. City in the Clouds
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAMMY'S CHOICE stacks up nicely with the local New York-bred fillies based on any of her three races at Philly Park, and is on an identical work pattern (bullet 4fs eight days out) that took place for allowance win; stalker is ideally drawn to sit a good trip just off ZIP OF FOOLS and BROWN EYED BELLE. The promise of a contested pace also bodes well for WESTERN SWEEP, who outfinished NORDBERG and narrowly missed upsetting a similar overnight stake at almost 20-1 recently; never worse than second at this distance. CITY IN THE CLOUDS has been in the money last four dirt starts, notably a second in NY Stallion's Park Avenue division at 17-1; hard-used dueling through fast pace first time over this track, turns back to 6fs.
Eighth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Jade Queen 2. Barancella 3. Masseuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After JADE QUEEN set the pace in the Flower Bowl and nearly went all the way in her final start last year, you can be sure the New York BC was penciled in as her initial objective at age 4; useful tightener five weeks ago at a distance shorter than her best. BARANCELLA figures right with the top pick based on a line through their respective exploits vs. Honey Ryder (and also figures close with HOSTESS based on their respective efforts vs. Safari Queen); may be at her absolute best on yielding-to-soft ground. MASSEUSE, on the other hand, probably won the Beaugay in spite of the boggy going; trainer has won this race with Soaring Softly and Wonder Again, and she finishes like she'll get the 1 1/4 miles. MAKDERAH finished like a freight train beating N2X rivals in eye-catching manner first local start; appears to love firm turf.
Ninth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. You Sure 2. Elder Skatesman 3. Subversive Action
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YOU SURE showed some improvement on the figures first time on turf, and first time out in six months, then moved forward more significantly when stretched out in follow-up start; owner/trainer is batting .350 first-time Lasix, switches from double bug to steady veteran Mike Luzzi. ELDER SKATESMAN is the lone entrant to have reached 70 on the Beyer figures, and has done that several times; probably needed his first start in over seven months, also first-time Lasix. SUBVERSIVE ACTION comes off two improved efforts since getting on Belmont turf, the latest a troubled trip; stretch threat if able to get in.
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
CALDER
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
1 BIG BRIAN T moves to the next level after dueling from start to finish and holding on gamely to defeat next-out winners Third Dimension & Haventgotmywings at the distance. 5 THIRD DIMENSION, second behind Big Brian T on May 31, stretches out after defeating "two-lifetime" foes in the slop at 5 1/2 furlongs. 4 ALEX'S NOTEBOOK, who defeated $16K claimers at Gulfstream on Mar. 30, drops after failing to handle the turf vs. $40K claimers here on May 6.
1-5-4
Race 2 -
5 NINTH OF JULY should show more in the second start of her current form cycle after dueling and fading, as the favorite, in her local return vs. $40K maidens. 6 MEDOUSA STORM, a half to Quackers Appeal, who was 17 for 28 in the money on the turf, moves to the lawn after finishing a promising third in her career debut on a sealed sloppy track. 11 BALLERINA BUNNY is cutting back to 5 furlongs after posting the best last-race turf figure (66) when finishing third vs. $32K maidens at a mile and a sixteenth. 2 GOLD INVITATION, a half to local stakes winner Mach Ride, debuts for trainer Steve Standridge, who is 4 for 16 (25%) with his first-time starters.
5-6-11-2
Race 3 -
5 MOREAPPLAUSEPLEASE is stretching out after rallying to finish second vs. similar at a mile. Trainer Harold Schultz tabs Manoel Cruz to ride. 2 RED MERCURY is stepping up after posting the best last-race speed figure in the slop (49) when opening and relinquishing a 3-length lead to finish second vs. $12.5K maidens at the distance. 3 REMEMBER ROBIN will race with blinkers after dueling for the lead and fading to finish third behind Moreapplauseplease last out.
5-2-3
Race 4 -
4 HOWDY PARDNER and 7 SAMYAKSAM have been moving in opposite directions since they hooked up here in late April. The former, trained by Kirk Ziadie, has finished second in three consecutive races since proving no match for Samyaksam on Apr. 27 while the latter, trained by Mike McDonald, has faded to finish a disappointing sixth in a pair since defeating his nemesis by 7-plus lengths. 9 STICKY SKIPPY cuts back to a distance where he's undefeated (2-2-0-0) after finishing second in the slop vs. similar at 7 furlongs. 8 MAJOR PLAYER turns back to three-quarters (6-1-0-1) after finishing third behind Sticky Skippy last out.
4-7-9-8
Race 5 - THE LORD JUBAN
3 PICKAPOCKET, a multiple stakes winner on the turf during 2006, now in the Marty Wolfson barn, returns after failing to earn a check vs. better in both the Tropical Park Derby (G3) & the $75K Hallandale Beach. Note that Wolfson has a 26% win average with new acquisitions to his barn. 6 DRUMS OF THUNDER, a previous winner on the turf, returns after following an impressive campaign on the dirt in which he won the $100K What A Pleasure here, was second across town in the Holy Bull (G3), and sixth in the Fountain of Youth (G2). 7 VOORHEE'S BALLAD merits respect in soggy South Florida because he has shown the ability to run well on turf, dirt & wet tracks. 1 FAIR WEATHER STAN has been a model of consistency on the turf hitting the board in 5 of his last 6 starts (6-3-1-1).
3-6-7-1
Race 6 -
4 FINAL ARGUMENT, a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby runner up Closing Argument, has trained nicely in preparation for his career debut for Ed Plesa Jr. 2 SENSATIONAL IMAGE is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after encountering early trouble (steadied) when finishing fifth in his 7-furlong career debut. Note that trainer Kathleen O'Connell is 15% with horses stretching out in distance. 7 MIA CONCERTO, now in the Henry Collazo barn, moves to the main track after showing speed and fading late in a pair going longer on the turf. Manoel Cruz rides.
4-2-7
Race 7 -
2 LITTLE LUCIFER, 5 for 7 in the money on this course, drops into this $25K "three-lifetime" claimer after finishing third vs. $32K optional claimers at Tampa on Feb. 17. 5 IRISH TOUR is turning back to 7 1/2 furlongs after weakening late to finish third vs. $16K optional claimers in her local turf return at a mile and a sixteenth. 6 GREELEYLIKEALADY drops after an eventful outing here in which she was rank early and steadied twice when finishing ninth in a 'key' optional claimer that produced two next-out winners including Silver Charades, who won the All Along (G3) at Colonial last Sat. 7 CARICATURIST drew clear to defeat $32K maidens in the slop last out, and will now try to do the same in his turf debut. The son of Trippi is bred to handle the surface switch.
2-5-6-7
Race 8 -
2 KIPAROO should be ready to score in the third race back from the layoff after dueling and weakening to finish third behind 7 TRICKS NOT TREATS at 5 1/2 furlongs. The latter, who has finished second in 11 of his 32 races, turns back to five-eighths after finishing - you guessed it - second in 3 consecutive races vs. similar at the 5 1/2 - 6-furlong distance. 6 RUPERT'S RELICS steps up after posting the best last-race figure (75) when defeating "two-lifetime" claimers at the distance. 5 ROYAL STAR is turning back after encountering traffic in the stretch when finishing fourth behind the top two selections last out.
2-7-6-5
Race 9 -
8 CALL ME MISTER drops into this $25K "two-lifetime" event after rallying to get beat only 4 1/2 lengths in a 'key' $16K optional claimer that produced next-out winners Running Hot & Swift Mercedes. 4 MIDATLANTIC, 3 for 4 in the money on this course before the extended vacation, returns for trainer Bill White, who has a 32% win average with horses making the first start after an 180-day plus layoff. 2 STRIKING VISION, who threatened to notch this condition in 3 of 4 starts at Gulfstream, stretches out hoping to rebound from a poor showing here at 7 1/2 furlongs on a 'good' turf. 10 MASSASOIT, 2 for 3 on the Calder turf, hopes to show more after failing to handle a sealed sloppy track last out.
8-4-2-10
Race 10 -
3 CLEVER DAME is turning back slightly after following her strong bottom level maiden win at this distance with a second place finish vs. this level of competition at a mile and a sixteenth in the slop. 6 DIAMOND BRIANNA faces winners after holding on gamely to defeat $12.5K maidens at a mile. Trainer Bill White, 20% with horses winning back-to-back races, has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle again. 1 FAVORITE BABY turns back after encountering trouble on the turn (steadied) when finishing third behind Clever Dame last out.
3-6-1
Race 11 -
7 FLANKERS LADY makes the first start since her impressive 2-year-old debut victory in which she drew clear to defeat three next-out winners in a 'key' 5-furlong maiden test. Trainer Mike McDonald, 3 for 7 (43%) with the longer than 180-day layoff, has her training sharply for her first race since Aug. '06. 4 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN, the only 4-time winner in the field, proved she could compete vs. these when she finished a well-meant second here at 6 1/2 furlongs. 8 MARBLE LAKE should bounce back after following her 9-length maiden score at the distance with a third place finish behind Joan's Royal Dawn at 6 1/2. 3 SECRET GIRLFRIEND let the cat out of the bag when she drew off to win her career debut at the distance in impressive fashion.
7-4-8-3
Race 12 -
7 NINGBO makes his allowance debut after rewarding his many backers with an impressive maiden victory at the distance. His biggest challenge will surely come from 3 MARNESIA'S BIG BOY. The improving son of Halo's Image, who beat Ningbo by a nose on May 5, turns back to a mile after bumping hard at the start prior to getting beat a nose vs. first-level allowance competition at a mile and a sixteenth. 1 HANDSOME BRUNO is turning back after encountering trouble on the far turn when finishing fourth behind repeat winner Notice Me Now at a mile and a sixteenth.
7-3-1
Race 13 -
7 BULLET PROOF MAN, who has finished second or third in 11 of 16 races, including 3 of 5 at 7 furlongs, stretches out hoping the added real estate produces the elusive maiden win (16-0-7-4). 1 MY MAN FRANK merits respect after finishing a distant second at this level and distance last out. 3 BANGKOK is stretching out without blinkers after recovering from early trouble (steadied) to finish third vs. similar at 5 furlongs. 5 SHOULDABEENAMARINE is hoping to find a little more for the stretch drive after finishing a distance third behind My Man Frank last out.
BEST BET: RACE 9 - CALL ME MISTER
LONG SHOT: RACE 5 - LATER GATER
7-1-3-5
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
PUT UP OR (7) finished well in a quickly run race at this level last out after pressing the pace. He figures to chase Mybelleman today, but has the advantage of being to the outside of that one. MYBELLEMAN (4) has good speed, but has stopped in all of his starts and must get an additional half-furlong today. KENWIN (1) turned in an even effort against better last out and drops to the level from which he was claimed. He should up the pieces if the top two go too fast.
7-4-1
Race 2 -
TWISTED TALE (3) debuts for leading juvenile trainer Steve Asmussen and shows that barn’s typically steady – but not overly flashy – workout pattern. Her pedigree has plenty of speed and class influences. TAKING STOCK (5) debuts off sharp works that include a second best half-mile her. She is bred to be precocious and looks ready to go. SUBTLE ALY (4) is a stablemate of the top pick with credentials to be a factor in her debut. EXPRESS CHICK (2) can be expected to improve off her debut in which she showed early speed before she gave way.
3-5-4
Race 3 -
BARGAINWITHTHEDEVIL (2) could not handle starter allowance company off the claim last out and returns to the level at which he won his first start of 2007. He has tactical speed and should be in a good position throughout. COPPERTUDE (4) steps up off the claim for the Fahey stable, which is having a solid year. He was an easy winner last out and will likely be part of the early pace. SUMMER MAN (6) ran second in a quickly run $16,000 claimer for his new connections and looks like a sold contender as he drops a class level. He has a good local record and can sit in a stalking spot behind the speed.
2-4-6
Race 4 -
BOLD TRUST (1) shipped across the country off a runner-up effort in his debut and was favored in a stakes race over Hollywood Park’s synthetic surface. He was stuck on the inside before he got out for a late run and the return to maidens gives him the edge in this quality field. BLACKBERRY ROAD (6) closed ground late in his debut and is eligible to show improvement. MITIGATION (2) ran well after acting up in the post parade prior to his debut. He could improve off that start if he can keep focused on racing.
1-6-2
Race 5 -
SLAM MY HEART (1) makes his first start for a claiming price and looms as the one to beat off previous main track efforts that include a big win from off the pace at Mountaineer. VICTORY BLUE (6) was outrun when he dropped back to a sprint last out and is better suited to today's distance. He faced a strong field that day, but today’s competition is not as deep. CRAFTY MARK (4) returns to the claiming level and distance at which he was able to win over the winter at Fair Grounds. He has failed to contend in allowance company since that victory, but today’s drop in class could get him back in form.
1-6-4
Race 6 -
R SMOKEN STAR (9) takes a significant drop in class as he makes his third start off a long layoff. He chased decent fractions while sprinting in his last two starts and could be able to go a bit easier on the front as he tries the mile today. PULPIT EXCHANGE (3) has been idle since being claimed in April at Oaklawn. He faced open claimers then, but is the one to beat today as he runs against bottom level conditioned claimers for the meet’s leading stable. JULISKA (6) and WHAT THE DEVIL (12) have been knocking at the door at this level and are capable of competing with the top two as well.
9-3-6
Race 7 -
MANOFTHEWEST (1) has gone off as a short priced favorite before turning in runner-up finishes in both of his starts. He figures to again be the prohibitive choice and a solid workout since his last race indicates that he may succeed today. YONEGWA (7) has also run well in both his starts and has the advantage of being drawn outside of the top choice. MIKE LOWERY (6) has trained well for his debut over Keeneland’s Polytrack and has the pedigree to come out running.
1-7-6
Race 8 -
I BELIEVE IN ME (2) did not seem to handle the 1 ½-mile distance in the Grade III Louisville Handicap. He turns back in distance to face allowance horses and should get a good ground saving trip from just off the pace. WESTMORELAND (7) takes blinkers off for today which may enable him to settle better early in the race. ELECTRIC CHANT (1) and ALPHA CAPO (1A) go as an entry with Borel named on both, which suggests that only one will start. Alpha Capo just missed in a strong allowance race last out and is in good form since his return to turf. HIS HOLINESS (4) is on a nice two race win streak including a victory over next out winner Yate's Black Cat. He likes to be close to the pace, but could find some company there today. Main track choices: Electric Chant/Alpa Capo entry (1,1A), I Believe In Me (2).
2-7-1
Race 9 -
TORA (3) was unlucky at the start last out when she stumbled while leaving the gate from an inside post. She came up a neck short to a good filly in Sheets and gets a better post today. TIME’S MISTRESS (4) is a graded stakes winner at the distance who has the ability to rate just off a potential strong pace. MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM (2) is a bit inconsistent, but ran a huge race here in November closing off the pace to lose by a nose to Floral Park.
3-4-2
Race 10 -
A.P. DREAM (9) must overcome an outside draw, but has a better chance to get over if the temporary rail is down. She has a beautiful pedigree and seemed to improve in her first turf start, and looks capable of another move forward today. LADY ATTACK (6) also moved forward with an easy maiden victory in her first turf start. She can improve as she makes her second start on the grass. TOUGH APPLES (8) raced evenly behind the top choice last out and looks well spotted to get a share of this. Main Track choices: Molly By Golly (11), Tough Apples (8).
9-6-8
Race 11 -
CARSON CAMP (2) ships in off some decent efforts in Texas for the Asmussen stable and is well placed to be effective here at the maiden $30,000 level. He has speed to gain good position from his inside draw and looks tough with this field. GREAT NORTHERN (10) drops in class as he makes his Churchill debut. He had a couple of good performances at Turfway this winter that would make him a contender here. MAGICAL COURT (4) has had many chances that include a win at this level last out from which he was disqualified for bumping down the lane. He will be relying on speed up front to set up his late run.
2-10-4
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Cry Havoc, 8-1
(6th) Slate, 6-1
Belmont Park (4th) Jets Only, 3-1
(5th) Winaway, 3-1
Calder Race Course (2nd) Medousa Storm, 6-1
(7th) Little Lucifer, 4-1
Canterbury Park (1st) Man of Men, 4-1
(2nd) French Prize, 4-1
Charles Town (5th) Noon at Ryan's, 6-1
(8th) Norjac, 3-1
Churchill Downs (4th) Blackberry Road, 4-1
(6th) What the Devil, 8-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Fourthirteen, 5-1
(5th) Talkforfree, 10-1
Delaware Park (2nd) Nucon, 7-2
(3rd) Catoctin Creek, 8-1
Emerald Downs (1st) Looks Lika Fish, 3-1
(4th) Joyce's Gift, 3-1
Evangeline Downs (4th) Danielle's Charm, 7-2
(9th) Mt. Ree Tah, 5-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Bold Brian, 7-2
(5th) Axel Rhodes, 3-1
Great Lakes Downs (4th) Brushher, 5-1
(6th) Timely Factor, 5-1
Hastings Park (6th) Earl's Diamond, 7-2
(8th) Big Shiny, 8-1
Hollywood Park (4th) Asian Eyes, 5-1
(9th) Zoom Zip Zoom, 3-1
Indiana Downs (1st) Aramadas Turn, 7-2
(9th) Pay Check, 4-1
Lone Star Park (7th) Primed Pioneer, 9-2
(8th) Front Nine, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (3rd) Dashing Dax, 7-2
(4th) Louis G, 3-1
Monmouth Park (7th) Change Your Image, 7-2
(8th) Joey P., 5-1
Mountaineer (1st) Sultry Creek, 7-2
(5th) Nevereveryield, 6-1
Northlands (5th) Ain't No Options, 5-1
(8th) Ms. Sarah Vye, 8-1
Philadelphia Park (9th) Grand in Grey, 4-1
(10th) Power by Leigh, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Ricardao, 6-1
(7th) Go On With It Son, 7-2
River Downs (6th) Jp'shanna, 7-2
(8th) Mr. Popeye, 4-1
Suffolk Downs (7th) I'm No Brat, 6-1
(9th) Midnight Flair, 10-1
Thistledown (5th) Believe Your Lover, 7-2
(9th) Dawn's Revenge, 6-1
Woodbine (8th) Lyrically, 5-1
(9th) Wordly, 10-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
NEW YORK S. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/4MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 HOSTESS BOND HAROLD JAMES HILL C 116
2 JADE QUEEN PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 116
3 VACARE CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE PRADO E S 123
4 BARANCELLA (FR) FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 116
5 MASSEUSE TONER JAMES J VELASQUEZ CORNE 120
6 FOR ALWAYS MARTIN CARLOS F JARA FERNANDO 116
7 LA DOLCE VITA HENNIG MARK DESORMEAUX K J 120
8 MAKDERAH (IRE) MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 116
Eight distaffers will contest a deep renewal of the $250,000 New York Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Belmont Park on Saturday, and MASSEUSE (Dynaformer) is a tempting 8-1 on the morning line for the 1 1/4-mile affair on the inner turf. The James Toner mare has endured a stop-and-start career because of injury, but she has shown real talent in her sparse stakes appearances. As a sophomore, she came within a neck of My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) in the 2005 Virginia Oaks before going to the sidelines for a year. Her 2006 campaign was also cut short by a setback, but she has at last been able to string together a couple of quality efforts so far this season.
Masseuse returned from a seven-month layoff to finish a creditable third to Cassydora (GB) (Darshaan) and My Typhoon in the Hillsborough S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. She moved forward off that tightener to capture the Beaugay H. (G3) at Aqueduct, even though she wasn't loving the rain-softened ground that day, and the dawdling pace didn't suit her closing style. Her abundant class got her through, and she scored by an ultra-game neck while earning a 115 BRIS Late Pace rating. The dark bay will step up to 10 furlongs for the first time here, but she is bred to handle the distance, and she loves Belmont (4-3-0-0). Cornelio Velasquez picks up the mount on Masseuse, who could break into the top echelon of the filly and mare turf set with a winning rally.
MAKDERAH (Ire) (Danehill) also appears to be an overlay at her morning-line odds of 8-1. The impeccably bred bay broke her maiden last year at Newbury, defeating males, and then placed in three straight stakes. On two of those occasions, she vainly chased Red Evie (Intikhab), who would go on to capture a pair of Group 1 contests, including the Lockinge S. (Eng-G1) two back versus males. Makderah finally broke through with a clear victory in the October S. at Ascot before concluding her European career with a poor performance. Shipped stateside to join Kiaran McLaughlin, the Shadwell Stable colorbearer was a one-paced runner-up in her 2007 debut in a Keeneland allowance, but she put it all together against similar company next time out at Belmont. The four-year-old exploded through the stretch to romp by 5 3/4 lengths, posting a 107 Late Pace figure. Makderah is well qualified to make her presence felt beneath new rider Alan Garcia.
VACARE (Lear Fan) has earned her 2-1 favoritism on the morning line, as well as her top weight of 123 pounds, by virtue of being the only Grade 1 winner in the field. The once-beaten filly deserves great respect, but she is entering this event on the heels of her first career loss in the Gamely Breeders' Cup S. (G1). Vacare was in perfect striking position in that contest, but Citronnade (Lemon Drop Kid) and Price Tag (GB) (Dansili [GB]) simply kicked far clear of her at Hollywood Park. Perhaps a return to her home base will help her to get back on track. On the other hand, her Late Pace numbers in her two outings this year are well below her triple-digit ratings from 2006, when she crowned a perfect season with a score in the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1). Note that Edgar Prado, who rode Masseuse last time, sticks with Vacare.
JADE QUEEN (Giant's Causeway) will probably try to dictate terms on the front end, a strategy that very nearly worked in the Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) over this course and distance last October. The Todd Pletcher filly kept on bravely that day and was just worn down late by Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval) and Film Maker. Shelved for the rest of the season, Jade Queen returned with another gritty third-place effort in the Steal a Kiss S. in May. She's eligible to improve significantly with that race under her girth, but we suspect she'll succumb late. BARANCELLA (Fr) (Acatenango) has placed in eight stakes over the course of her commendable career, and we'd love to see her record a long-overdue win at this level. This spot doesn't look any easier, though. The Bobby Frankel-trained chestnut will come charging from off the pace, but her Late Pace numbers are typically less than those of the top contenders. Barancella will probably have to settle for a minor award once again.
LA DOLCE VITA (Quiet American) was rounding into career-best form earlier this year, capturing a pair of stakes and finishing a respectable third in the Orchid H. (G3). She took a step backward last time out when winding up fourth in the 1 3/8-mile Sheepshead Bay H. (G2). Cutting back slightly in trip might help her, but she looks a cut below the principals. HOSTESS (Chester House) finished well for third in the Sheepshead Bay and enters on the upswing for James Bond. The four-year-old will have to improve considerably to fill that same placing here.
FOR ALWAYS (War Chant) was blown away by Makderah last time out, and there's no reason to project a reversal of fortune.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MASSEUSE
2nd-MAKDERAH (Ire)
3rd-VACARE
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
ARLINGTON CLASSIC S. (G3), 9TH-AP, $150,000, 3YO, 1 1/16MT, 5:00 P.M. CDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 VAUNT (GB) MOTT WILLIAM I ALBARADO R J 119
2 PLEASANT STRIKE PLETCHER TODD A DOUGLAS R R 119
3 LOVANGO ROBERTSON MCLEAN MARTINEZ S B 119
4 STARBASE LUKAS D WAYNE RAZO E JR 119
5 QUASICOBRA BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 119
6 BETA CAPO ASMUSSEN STEVEN M EMIGH C A 121
7 RIVERSIDE RASCAL LEWELLYN PAUL LAVIOLETTE B S 119
8 TOM ARCHDEACON SMITH AUSTIN STERLING L J JR 119
9 PIRATE SAINT DIVITO JAMES P FERRER J C 119
Saturday's $150,000 Arlington Classic (G3) kicks off the Mid-America Triple, a three-race series for three-year-olds on the turf that also consists of the July 21 American Derby (G2) and August 11 Secretariat S. (G1) at Arlington Park, and there is no standout among the nine entrants. We'll tab PLEASANT STRIKE (Smart Strike) in the 1 1/16-mile event.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Pleasant Strike ran a big one when breaking his maiden by eight lengths in his turf debut in late January. He was thrown to the wolves next time out, finishing sixth against a strong field in the Hallandale Beach S., and then recorded a fine third against allowance rivals at Keeneland. The winner, Inca King (Sir Cat), posted an excellent win in the Jefferson Cup S. (G2) last Saturday, and the runner-up in that allowance took fourth. Pleasant Strike exits a victory in an off-the-turf allowance at Arlington, strolling to a 1 1/4-length score over the Polytrack, and he'll return to his favorite surface in the Arlington Classic. The improving colt won't face the stiffest competition, and we'll look for jockey Rene Douglas to sit a good stalking trip from his inside post before pouncing.
QUASICOBRA (Wild Rush) could be ready to make some noise at the stakes level for trainer Patrick Biancone. A maiden winner over Polytrack three starts back, he followed it with a close second versus allowance foes over the same surface at Keeneland. The dark bay gelding tried turf in a Churchill Downs allowance last time out, and he gamely fought through the stretch against a solid group of rivals, hitting the wire first before suffering a tough-luck disqualification. It was still a very commendable showing for the lightly raced colt, and Quasicobra might put it all together in this spot under Julien Leparoux.
TOM ARCHDEACON (Aljabr) has shown an affinity for Arlington's turf (4-1-3-0) and exits a late-running score in the Awad S. on May 28. He did catch yielding ground that afternoon, but he's proven that he can handle firm conditions as well. The Austin Smith trainee netted a 105 BRIS Late Pace rating two starts back, and he could make an impact on Saturday given the presence of some early speed in the line-up.
BETA CAPO (Langfuhr) figures to use his quickness to his advantage, and the Steve Asmussen charge is a threat to last a long way under Chris Emigh. He recorded a front-running win in the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge S. two starts back and exits a decent third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, over soft turf in the U.S.A. S. at Lone Star Park. Beta Capo should appreciate a return to firm conditions, and we'll use him on the bottom of some exotics.
LOVANGO (Capote) didn't enjoy a clean trip when third in the Awad, and he gave a good account of himself in his first turf start. The McLean Robertson runner earned solid BRIS Speed and Pace numbers earlier this year when competing at Oaklawn Park and appears headed in the right direction presently. He'll be tested for class in this spot, but Lovango is a threat to crash the gimmicks at long odds (12-1 on the morning line).
VAUNT (GB) (Averti) is the 5-2 favorite on the morning line and will make his first start for new trainer Bill Mott. Third in the about 6 1/2-furlong Baldwin S. (G3) three starts back, the bay gelding exits a close second in the six-furlong Harry Henson S. at Hollywood Park. Vaunt will enter this event fresh and could be dangerous in his first start for his Hall of Fame conditioner, but his form is much better around one turn, with unplaced showings in both two-turn efforts in America. We wouldn't suggest throwing him out of exotics consideration, but we'll try to beat him. STARBASE (Tale of the Cat) finished a surprising second two starts back in the Lexington S. (G2) and was then given some time off by trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He returned with a dull sixth in the Ohio Derby (G2) earlier this month and will now revert to turf. He didn't run well over the green when making his career bow, and we're not excited about his chances here. He will be dropping in class, however.
PIRATE SAINT (Put It Back) exits a couple of solid showings over the turf in Chicago, but he enjoyed the luxury of an inside post on both occasions and will have to overcome the far outside here. His Speed and Pace numbers are a little low, and we'll give the dark bay a start at the graded level. RIVERSIDE RASCAL (Skip Away) will show speed, but he appears overmatched in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PLEASANT STRIKE
2nd-QUASICOBRA
3rd-TOM ARCHDEACON
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SALVATOR MILE H. (G3), 9TH-MTH, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 4:42 P.M. EDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 INDY WIND TARRANT AMY MADRID MARIO 119
2 GOTTCHA GOLD PLESA EDWARD JR LOPEZ C C 117
3 LAWYER RON PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121
4 TAKE THE BLUFF VIOLETTE RICHARD JR LEZCANO JOSE 117
5 CHUCKER DUTROW RICHARD E CASTRO E 117
Oaklawn H. (G2) winner LAWYER RON (Langfuhr), who comes off a close third in the Metropolitan H. (G1), is a proverbial lock in Saturday's $150,000 Salvator Mile H. (G3) at Monmouth Park. The Todd Pletcher pupil towers over his four rivals and will enter the starting gate as the prohibitive odds-on favorite under stable rider John Velazquez. The four-year-old colt will gain valuable experience at the seashore oval and could be pointed toward the new $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which will be decided this year at one mile and 70 yards in order to accommodate a potential 14-horse field.
Lawyer Ron, an earner of nearly $1.9 million, overcame trouble to easily win his seasonal debut at this distance at Gulfstream Park. In his next start, he stalked the early pace, moved to the fore from the outside on his own courage around the second turn, opened up a daylight advantage turning for home, then drew off through the stretch under token encouragement to win the nine-furlong Oaklawn by four lengths as the popular 1-2 choice. Most recently, Lawyer Ron rallied four wide turning for home, dug in from between foes in upper stretch, challenged the eventual winner Corinthian (Pulpit) near the furlong-marker, then diminished slightly in the final yards before finishing third, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths, as the favorite in the prestigious Met Mile.
None of his four rivals have won a graded stakes race, and at least three of them like to be on or very near the early lead. As a result, Lawyer Ron should sit a perfect stalking trip. For punters, the problem will be whether the risk/reward ratio is worth it.
In order to find some value in the race, we're going with INDY WIND (A.P. Indy) and GOTTCHA GOLD (Coronado's Quest) to complete the exacta.
After being bumped at the break and dropping far behind, Indy Wind rallied to win the two-turn Frisk Me Now S. by open lengths over this surface on Memorial Day. The Amy Tarrant trainee owns an impressive record (6-4-1-1) at this venue and could be the lone closer with a similar trip. Gottcha Gold ran off to a huge lead and set blazing fractions of :21 2/5, :44 and 1:08 3/5 before holding on gamely for runner-up honors in the one mile and 70-yard Frisk Me Now. The bay colt has won or placed in four stakes races over this surface and could have a class edge over the one above. He could be the one to catch with similar tactics.
TAKE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) set a relatively fast pace before fading to fourth, beaten 10 1/2 lengths, in the William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) on the Preakness S. (G1) undercard. The chestnut won his first two starts of the season, but the Schaefer was his first stakes race, and he could be an underlay to complete the exacta.
After getting beat twice for a tag on the grass, CHUCKER (Running Stag) rolled through his first three non-claiming conditions on dirt. Our concern is that he could be compromised by the outside draw as well as the company.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-LAWYER RON
2nd-INDY WIND
3rd-GOTTCHA GOLD
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
CINEMA BREEDERS' CUP H. (G3), 8TH-HOL, $150,000, 3YO, 1 1/8MT, 4:53 P.M. PDT, 6-23
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 STAR INSIDE (IRE) CARAVA JACK ALMEIDA G F 114
2 GWEEBARRA (GB) DRYSDALE NEIL TALAMO JOSEPH 115
3 WORLDLY (GB) CECIL B D A ESPINOZA V 120
4 GOLDEN ***** (IRE) CASSIDY JAMES BLANC B 119
5 LEVEL RED HOFMANS DAVID GRYDER A T 116
6 STREETS AHEAD (GB) DRYSDALE NEIL VALDIVIA J JR 115
7 MR EDDIE BOY HESS R B JR BAZE M C 116
8 TYCOON DOBY GALLAGHER PATRICK SOLIS A 114
Saturday's Cinema Breeders' Cup H. (G3) is shaping up to be a match between GOLDEN ***** (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and WORLDLY (GB) (Selkirk) over Hollywood Park's turf. Each has scored in his past two races, but we're going with the James Cassidy-trained Golden ***** to come out on top here.
The chestnut colt began his career in England, breaking his maiden at Salisbury, before stepping up three starts later at Bath to take a seven-furlong allowance. That race rounded out Golden *****' juvenile season, and he reappeared in the United States for his three-year-old campaign. Golden ***** worked a bullet at Santa Anita in March, then made his U.S. debut in the La Puente S., rallying from near the back that day to record a nose victory on the wire. Desert Code (E Dubai), second in the La Puente, returned to be a neck third in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial (G3) before capturing the Affirmed H. (G3) last Sunday. Golden ***** will be stretching out an extra eighth of a mile here, but his 97 BRIS Speed and Late Pace rating in his stakes bow tells us that he'll be able handle the added ground. Brice Blanc will be back in the saddle on Saturday.
Worldly followed a similar path as Golden *****, breaking his maiden at Wolverhampton in England and then coming to the United States for his three-year-old season. The Ben Cecil charge posted a nice three-quarter of a length allowance win going nine furlongs on Santa Anita's turf in April, then stepped up in class and reverted in distance to the take the eight-furlong Will Rogers S. (G3) last out. The gray gelding earned an 89 Speed figure and a 99 Late Pace rating for his stakes victory and will challenge for it all here under Victor Espinoza.
MR EDDIE BOY (Lemon Drop Kid) has blossomed since transferring to the turf two starts back. The Bob Hess Jr. trainee broke his maiden on Golden Gate Fields' turf before taking the Alcatraz S. back at that track. He rallied from midpack that day to earn a 106 Late Pace figure, and has been working on Hollywood Park's green to prepare for this one. Mr Eddie Boy doesn't look to threaten our top two, but he could definitely make a place for himself in the bottom of the exotics. Michael Baze has the call.
TYCOON DOBY (Cherokee Run) is another who has shown new life since moving to the turf. The bay three-year-old took his maiden on Bay Meadows' green, then shipped to Hollywood to capture a one-mile allowance last out by a head. The Paddy Gallagher-trained colt posted a bullet six-furlong move on Hollywood's Cushion Track on June 14 and will challenge Mr Eddie Boy for the show spot here. Alex Solis, who has missed just one ride aboard Tycoon Doby, will be in the irons.
STAR INSIDE (Ire) (Key of Luck) was a decent stakes-placed performer in Ireland, but has run sixth in both starts, the La Puente and Alcatraz, since coming stateside. The bay gelding could use the added distance here to get a bit closer and earn a share. Consider for the bottom of the gimmicks -- if he shows up for the race, since he just worked five furlongs at Santa Anita on Friday.
LEVEL RED (Aptitude) will be making his turf bow here, and the Grade 2-placed runner needs to improve off his previous two starts to have any chance at a check. We'll just watch for now. STREETS AHEAD (GB) (Beat Hollow [GB]) is a listed winner in England, but hasn't factored in two starts since coming to North America. GWEEBARRA (GB) (Lomitas [GB]) scored in an allowance in his U.S. debut last out, but might not be able to keep up here. We'll let these two beat us.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GOLDEN ***** (Ire)
2nd-WORLDLY (GB)
3rd-MR EDDIE BOY
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Lone Star for Saturday June 23, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Lone Star
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#3 MAGIC THORNE (ML=9/5)
MAGIC THORNE - The latest fig of 84 is the top last race speed fig in the field. Is ranked at the top in earnings per race. A dominant try in this race can increase the lifetime total.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TRICK BAG (ML=2/1), #1A TEXAS DUDE (ML=2/1), #6 RIVA'S IMAGE (ML=5/2)
TRICK BAG - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing talent on Jun 3rd. Doubtful that the speed figure he recorded on June 3rd will hold up in this race. TEXAS DUDE - 2/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races. Disappointing speed figure last out at Lone Star at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this pony will improve too much in today's race. RIVA'S IMAGE - There may be a set back this time around, after the big effort last time out. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 MAGIC THORNE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
<!-- / message -->
<!-- sig -->__________________
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
wunderdog
BELMONT PARK Race #THREE (2:00 PM Eastern)
(# 4) AMERICANUS - He was claimed out of a smashing win two back by Gary Contessa from the John Kimmel barn for $50,000. New trainer put him into an optional claimer without being tagged and he responded with another huge effort just missing. Returns quickly in a similar spot and it looks like this is his race to lose.
( # 3) Ice Man Cometh - Showed a lot of talent and promise at two, and makes his belated seasonal debut today off a series of fine AM work. If he's ready I would expect him to break sharply and try and out-foot them early. If not today then very soon.
(# 2) Precise Alloy - Not a complete surp! rise to see him win off the Levine freshening. Gelding was fresh speed, had blinkers added and had a nice outside post. This spot is tougher, but he has a rating gear that he can use
Ethan Law > .
PICK: Colorado Rockies (MLB)
Matty O'Shea > New York Yankees (MLB)
GINA PICKS
Saturday, June 23rd, 2007, 3:55 p.m. est.
Detroit Tigers (43-29) at Atlanta Braves (38-36)
(R) Justin Verlander (8-2) vs. (R) Kyle Davies (3-6)
Detroit’s right-hander Justin Verlander (8-2, 2.90 ERA), allowed three runs in six innings in a 7-4 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. The right-hander has won his last three starts and is 7-1 the last nine. Verlander has never faced the Braves
Atlanta's right-hander Kyle Davies (3-6, 5.65) allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-2 defeat against Cleveland on Sunday. Davies has lost three straight. He has never faced the Tigers.
The hot Tigers have won now won six of their last 7 games, including Friday's 5-0 shutout victory over Atlanta. Let's go with the Tigers again this afternoon with Justin Verlander on the hill. The right-handed is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA this season and is 6-0 in his six career interleague starts. Detroit is 8-1 in its last 9 road games. Meanwhile, the Braves are a nasty 4-11 in its last 15 games at Turner Field.
Detroit Tigers - 160
Rocco Spacamuro
1000* Cleveland -155
BELMONT PARK Race #THREE (2:00 PM Eastern)
(# 4) AMERICANUS - He was claimed out of a smashing win two back by Gary Contessa from the John Kimmel barn for $50,000. New trainer put him into an optional claimer without being tagged and he responded with another huge effort just missing. Returns quickly in a similar spot and it looks like this is his race to lose.
( # 3) Ice Man Cometh - Showed a lot of talent and promise at two, and makes his belated seasonal debut today off a series of fine AM work. If he's ready I would expect him to break sharply and try and out-foot them early. If not today then very soon.
(# 2) Precise Alloy - Not a complete surp! rise to see him win off the Levine freshening. Gelding was fresh speed, had blinkers added and had a nice outside post. This spot is tougher, but he has a rating gear that he can use
Ethan Law > .
PICK: Colorado Rockies (MLB)
Matty O'Shea > New York Yankees (MLB)
GINA PICKS
Saturday, June 23rd, 2007, 3:55 p.m. est.
Detroit Tigers (43-29) at Atlanta Braves (38-36)
(R) Justin Verlander (8-2) vs. (R) Kyle Davies (3-6)
Detroit’s right-hander Justin Verlander (8-2, 2.90 ERA), allowed three runs in six innings in a 7-4 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. The right-hander has won his last three starts and is 7-1 the last nine. Verlander has never faced the Braves
Atlanta's right-hander Kyle Davies (3-6, 5.65) allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-2 defeat against Cleveland on Sunday. Davies has lost three straight. He has never faced the Tigers.
The hot Tigers have won now won six of their last 7 games, including Friday's 5-0 shutout victory over Atlanta. Let's go with the Tigers again this afternoon with Justin Verlander on the hill. The right-handed is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA this season and is 6-0 in his six career interleague starts. Detroit is 8-1 in its last 9 road games. Meanwhile, the Braves are a nasty 4-11 in its last 15 games at Turner Field.
Detroit Tigers - 160
Rocco Spacamuro
1000* Cleveland -155
Stan Sharp - Double Dime
Florida +105
Wunderdog-
Game: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs +101 (risk 3 to win 3)
The White Sox just don't hit and their pen has not been very good either and Javier Vasquez has been pitching poorly too. The White Sox have won just 1 of his last 9 starts and opponents have thrashed the White Sox for 68 runs over his last 10 starts, or nearly 7-runs per game (RPG). Rich Hill has been mostly good for the Cubs and should bounce back off his worst start of the year. The Cubs have played much better lately, as they are 11-8 over their last 19, and in those 19 games opponents have scored two or less runs in more than half of them. The White Sox are quickly becoming the worst team in baseball as they are now just 5-20 in their last 25 games. It is hard to win when you don't score and don't pitch. The 25 game totals reveal an offense scoring just 3.6-rpg, and a staff allowing nearly 6-rpg. Not going to find too many wins when the lineup isn't producing runs and the pitching ! staff can't keep anyone down. Cubs make it two in a row.
Brandon Lovell
10* MLB Redsox - Padres OVER 7.5
10* MLB Mets -130
Overall we had a +14 units, 2-0-1 day and I am not satisfied.
Our 10* Mets play won by 8 runs. Our Bonus Play +100 Dog Reds wins big.
Then our 20* game, well that was just hard to watch. Those that did, saw in the top of the 2nd inning THREE errors by the D'Backs in one HALF inning that allowed FOUR RUNS- all of them unearned! Making the Final score 7-1, good only for a push push. Only 4 runs in the game were earned. This should of been another easy winner. I had it pegged but lady luck was not on our side.
I do like the card today. Play them single or parlay, or both. It should be another good day with the Best still to come. On Sunday, I will have my most sacred release. Blank Check Game of the Year. I hope to see you all back on Sunday.
I am giving you my plays today, absolutely free, to say thank you for being apart of the MJWINS team.
Best of Luck,
Brandon Lovell
Mike Jacobs
10* MLB UNDER 9 Dodgers - Devilrays
Bonus Play: 5* MLB OVER 9 Cubs - Whitesox
BILLY COLEMAN
MLB
4* N.Y.Mets (with Hernandez)
3* K.C.
3* Baltimore
College Baseball CWS
3* Oregon State
AFL
5* GOY Chicago -6
3* Columbus -2
WNBA
3.5* Connecticut -2
Ness' Bonus Play:
MLB Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay
Take Los Angeles Dodgers
I had the Dodgers last night as a solid road favorite and tonight I'll back them in the role of solid road underdogs. The "price swing" seems unjustified here. Scott Kazmir is a fine young pitcher but the Devil Rays are no match for the Dodgers. The D'Rays are an impressive 9-6 in Kazmir's starts this year, which is quite good considering the team's' overall 31-40 record, but he's got a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 4.10 ERA on the year. LA has hit lefties well all season, going 14-5 (plus-$760), while averaging 5.2 RPG. Randy Wolf gets the call for LA and the veteran left-hander has been healthy this year (1st time since '03) and while he's not in great form (6.86 ERA in his last four starts), he's 8-5 with a 4.24 ERA on the season in 15 starts (Dodgers are 9-6). While LA is on pace for its third straight postseason appearance, Tampa Bay is headed for its NINTH last-place finish in its 10-year history. I'll take the price with the Dodgers
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
Florida +105
Wunderdog-
Game: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs +101 (risk 3 to win 3)
The White Sox just don't hit and their pen has not been very good either and Javier Vasquez has been pitching poorly too. The White Sox have won just 1 of his last 9 starts and opponents have thrashed the White Sox for 68 runs over his last 10 starts, or nearly 7-runs per game (RPG). Rich Hill has been mostly good for the Cubs and should bounce back off his worst start of the year. The Cubs have played much better lately, as they are 11-8 over their last 19, and in those 19 games opponents have scored two or less runs in more than half of them. The White Sox are quickly becoming the worst team in baseball as they are now just 5-20 in their last 25 games. It is hard to win when you don't score and don't pitch. The 25 game totals reveal an offense scoring just 3.6-rpg, and a staff allowing nearly 6-rpg. Not going to find too many wins when the lineup isn't producing runs and the pitching ! staff can't keep anyone down. Cubs make it two in a row.
Brandon Lovell
10* MLB Redsox - Padres OVER 7.5
10* MLB Mets -130
Overall we had a +14 units, 2-0-1 day and I am not satisfied.
Our 10* Mets play won by 8 runs. Our Bonus Play +100 Dog Reds wins big.
Then our 20* game, well that was just hard to watch. Those that did, saw in the top of the 2nd inning THREE errors by the D'Backs in one HALF inning that allowed FOUR RUNS- all of them unearned! Making the Final score 7-1, good only for a push push. Only 4 runs in the game were earned. This should of been another easy winner. I had it pegged but lady luck was not on our side.
I do like the card today. Play them single or parlay, or both. It should be another good day with the Best still to come. On Sunday, I will have my most sacred release. Blank Check Game of the Year. I hope to see you all back on Sunday.
I am giving you my plays today, absolutely free, to say thank you for being apart of the MJWINS team.
Best of Luck,
Brandon Lovell
Mike Jacobs
10* MLB UNDER 9 Dodgers - Devilrays
Bonus Play: 5* MLB OVER 9 Cubs - Whitesox
BILLY COLEMAN
MLB
4* N.Y.Mets (with Hernandez)
3* K.C.
3* Baltimore
College Baseball CWS
3* Oregon State
AFL
5* GOY Chicago -6
3* Columbus -2
WNBA
3.5* Connecticut -2
Ness' Bonus Play:
MLB Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay
Take Los Angeles Dodgers
I had the Dodgers last night as a solid road favorite and tonight I'll back them in the role of solid road underdogs. The "price swing" seems unjustified here. Scott Kazmir is a fine young pitcher but the Devil Rays are no match for the Dodgers. The D'Rays are an impressive 9-6 in Kazmir's starts this year, which is quite good considering the team's' overall 31-40 record, but he's got a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 4.10 ERA on the year. LA has hit lefties well all season, going 14-5 (plus-$760), while averaging 5.2 RPG. Randy Wolf gets the call for LA and the veteran left-hander has been healthy this year (1st time since '03) and while he's not in great form (6.86 ERA in his last four starts), he's 8-5 with a 4.24 ERA on the season in 15 starts (Dodgers are 9-6). While LA is on pace for its third straight postseason appearance, Tampa Bay is headed for its NINTH last-place finish in its 10-year history. I'll take the price with the Dodgers
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
WNBA (If anyone cares)
Bookie Buster Projections 6/23
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->OVERALL RECORD:
Sides: 6-4-1 +160
Totals: 4-7 -370
ML: 7-4 +90
San Antonio (7-4) 76 at Connecticut (5-7) 70
Washington (2-10) 76 at Chicago (6-6) 79
Detroit (10-1) 75 at Sacramento (8-4) 74
Lines from Machbook:
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR><TH class=moduletitle align=left colSpan=3>WNBA Basketball </TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Spread</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Money Line</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Total Points</TH><TH class=moduletitle noWrap align=left colSpan=2>Team Total Points</TH><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>San Antonio Silver Stars at Connecticut Sun</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>651 </TD><TD noWrap>San Antonio Silver Stars</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_0 name=radiox>+2½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_0 name=radiox>+120 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_0 name=radiox>Over 151 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_0 name=radiox>Over 74 -115 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_0 name=radiox>Under 74 -105 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>652</TD><TD noWrap>Connecticut Sun</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_0 name=radiox>-2½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_0 name=radiox>-140 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_0 name=radiox>Under 151 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_0 name=radiox>Over 77 -105 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_0 name=radiox>Under 77 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>653 </TD><TD noWrap>Washington Mystics</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_1 name=radiox>+6 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_1 name=radiox>+220 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_1 name=radiox>Over 153½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_1 name=radiox>Over 73½ -115 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_1 name=radiox>Under 73½ -105 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>8:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>654</TD><TD noWrap>Chicago Sky</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_1 name=radiox>-6 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_1 name=radiox>-260 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_1 name=radiox>Under 153½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_1 name=radiox>Over 80 -105 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_1 name=radiox>Under 80 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Detroit Shock at Sacramento Monarchs</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>655 </TD><TD noWrap>Detroit Shock</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_2 name=radiox>-2 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_2 name=radiox>-130 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_2 name=radiox>Over 142 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_2 name=radiox>Over 72 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_2 name=radiox>Under 72 -110 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>10:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>656</TD><TD noWrap>Sacramento Monarchs</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_2 name=radiox>+2 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_2 name=radiox>+110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_2 name=radiox>Under 142 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_2 name=radiox>Over 70 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_2 name=radiox>Under 70 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Bookie Buster Projections 6/23
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->OVERALL RECORD:
Sides: 6-4-1 +160
Totals: 4-7 -370
ML: 7-4 +90
San Antonio (7-4) 76 at Connecticut (5-7) 70
Washington (2-10) 76 at Chicago (6-6) 79
Detroit (10-1) 75 at Sacramento (8-4) 74
Lines from Machbook:
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR><TH class=moduletitle align=left colSpan=3>WNBA Basketball </TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Spread</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Money Line</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Total Points</TH><TH class=moduletitle noWrap align=left colSpan=2>Team Total Points</TH><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>San Antonio Silver Stars at Connecticut Sun</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>651 </TD><TD noWrap>San Antonio Silver Stars</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_0 name=radiox>+2½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_0 name=radiox>+120 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_0 name=radiox>Over 151 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_0 name=radiox>Over 74 -115 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_0 name=radiox>Under 74 -105 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>652</TD><TD noWrap>Connecticut Sun</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_0 name=radiox>-2½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_0 name=radiox>-140 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_0 name=radiox>Under 151 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_0 name=radiox>Over 77 -105 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_0 name=radiox>Under 77 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>653 </TD><TD noWrap>Washington Mystics</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_1 name=radiox>+6 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_1 name=radiox>+220 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_1 name=radiox>Over 153½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_1 name=radiox>Over 73½ -115 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_1 name=radiox>Under 73½ -105 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>8:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>654</TD><TD noWrap>Chicago Sky</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_1 name=radiox>-6 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_1 name=radiox>-260 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_1 name=radiox>Under 153½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_1 name=radiox>Over 80 -105 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_1 name=radiox>Under 80 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Detroit Shock at Sacramento Monarchs</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 6/23</TD><TD noWrap>655 </TD><TD noWrap>Detroit Shock</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_2 name=radiox>-2 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M1_2 name=radiox>-130 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_2 name=radiox>Over 142 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E1_2 name=radiox>Over 72 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E3_2 name=radiox>Under 72 -110 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>10:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>656</TD><TD noWrap>Sacramento Monarchs</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_2 name=radiox>+2 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=M2_2 name=radiox>+110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_2 name=radiox>Under 142 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E2_2 name=radiox>Over 70 -110 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=E4_2 name=radiox>Under 70 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
