BOB BALFE
Rams -5.5 over Falcons
The Falcons are an undersized yet very quick defense which plays against them when defending the play action pass. The Rams are the best in the league at doing it while the Falcons are the worst at stopping it. That is the key to this game. The Seahawks play the exact same style of defense that the Falcons do. The Rams destroyed them a few weeks ago. The other issue I have with the Falcons is now both their starting guards are on IR and their center Alex Mack is banged up. When it comes to the Falcons there is not a team in this league with more raw offense talent. The coaching has limited the potential of this team and you would think with all the experience they have and the lack of experience the Rams have in the playoffs that this would be a smaller line, but the boys out in Vegas know this Falcons coaching staff is not to be trusted. The Rams hired a defensive guru like Dick LeBeau just for this reason and not enough great things can be said about 31 year old head coach Sean McVay. The Rams have a massive offensive line that can set the tempo and keep the Falcons Defense honest playing the run and pass. On offense look for the Falcons to beat themselves with Steve Sarkisian type play calling. Playoff football is back in Los Angeles which is great for the NFL. Take the Rams.Opinion play of TEN/KC Under.
Rams -5.5 over Falcons
The Falcons are an undersized yet very quick defense which plays against them when defending the play action pass. The Rams are the best in the league at doing it while the Falcons are the worst at stopping it. That is the key to this game. The Seahawks play the exact same style of defense that the Falcons do. The Rams destroyed them a few weeks ago. The other issue I have with the Falcons is now both their starting guards are on IR and their center Alex Mack is banged up. When it comes to the Falcons there is not a team in this league with more raw offense talent. The coaching has limited the potential of this team and you would think with all the experience they have and the lack of experience the Rams have in the playoffs that this would be a smaller line, but the boys out in Vegas know this Falcons coaching staff is not to be trusted. The Rams hired a defensive guru like Dick LeBeau just for this reason and not enough great things can be said about 31 year old head coach Sean McVay. The Rams have a massive offensive line that can set the tempo and keep the Falcons Defense honest playing the run and pass. On offense look for the Falcons to beat themselves with Steve Sarkisian type play calling. Playoff football is back in Los Angeles which is great for the NFL. Take the Rams.Opinion play of TEN/KC Under.
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Randall the Handle
Titans (9-7) at Chiefs (10-6)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 8½
We don’t need Tennessee’s 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl to confirm that this team is not a serious contender. Despite playing in a soft division, the Titans were only able to pull off a 9-7 season. That mark is disconcerting when you consider that not only have the Titans played the weakest schedule of all playoffs teams but also of all 32 franchises in the league. This year, Tennessee’s opponents compiled a dismal 104-136 (.433) combined record. Titans’ only wins in the past seven weeks have been against its dreadful division mates. That includes a three-game losing streak (out of AFC South) before knocking off a mildly disinterested Jacksonville squad this past Sunday. Two of three road wins in that span were also against divisional opponents with third being an overtime win at 0-16 Browns. Now this very mediocre club will travel on a short week with uninspiring quarterback Marcus Mariota (13 touchdowns, 15 intercepts this season) making his first playoff appearance. Since 2002, first-timers have not fared well with just two victories in 13 tries, 4-9 against the spread (ATS). Conversely, Kansas City’s much-maligned QB Alex Smith has had some of his best performances in the post-season. In six playoff games, he’s thrown for 1481 yards, 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions and this may be his best supporting cast yet. Chiefs have bounced back from mid-season slump with four straight wins, all rather handily and should have little trouble with this unimposing visitor.
TAKING: CHIEFS -8½
Falcons (10-6) at Rams (11-5)
LINE: LA RAMS by 6½
While we greatly admire the Rams, they are simply being overpriced here. As mentioned above, first-time quarterbacks have not had an easy time of it. Now we have Jared Goff, off a fine season no doubt, squaring off against the experienced arm of Matt Ryan. That alone makes the points offered difficult to refuse. Granted, Atlanta is not the offensive powerhouse that it was a year ago. However, the Falcons match up well here as they can succeed with play-action passes to its talented running backs as the Rams have proven vulnerable in that area. In addition, Atlanta has inconspicuously been on a bit of roll lately with six wins in past eight games, allowing them to make this post-season. The Falcons’ only losses in that frame were not shameful ones, occurring at hands of NFC contenders Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. Atlanta’s defence has also pulled up its socks in the last half of the year, allowing just 17.9 points per game. This LA team can do a lot of things well. They were the top scoring team in the NFL this season, averaging just under 30 points per game with Goff tossing 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Todd Gurley has emerged as a top back and stud defensive lineman Aaron Donald remains a force. But in the end, Ryan’s experience (also 10-5 ATS when taking 6 or more) is enough to keep this game within range and that’s the way we’ll lean.
TAKING: FALCONS +6½
Bills (9-7) at Jaguars (10-6)
LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 8½
We’ll cut to the chase here. This is a ridiculous pointspread. The Jaguars are not worthy of this kind of respect. Maybe against the Browns or Colts of the world but not against another playoff team. Yes, their statistics suggest that they are a top defensive team. However, when you play the league’s second easiest schedule (opposition .438 winning percentage) and hail from the crummy AFC South, it’s not difficult to pad those stats. Have you seen the Jags play lately? Better yet, why would you want to? Maybe you wanted to have a peek when they went on a three-game ‘tear’ to start December? If so, let us remind you that those were consecutive home games against the Colts, declining Seahawks (missing five defensive starters) and Texans. Jacksonville didn’t finish as well, now entering these playoffs on a two-game slide. Sure the Bills were fortunate to make these playoffs but let’s not penalize them for that. They won four of final six games with both losses occurring against mighty Patriots. Tyrod Taylor keeps proving that he’s a decent leader. He’s careful with the ball and he’s a proficient runner when he has to be. Would rather have a cautious Taylor than an error-prone Blake Bortles in a game of this magnitude. Buffalo’s defence, particularly it’s secondary, can rattle Bortles who threw 13 picks this season while fumbling nine times. This game is a toss-up, making the bulky pointspread offered an easy take.
TAKING: BILLS +8½
Panthers (11-5) at Saints (11-5)
Titans (9-7) at Chiefs (10-6)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 8½
We don’t need Tennessee’s 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl to confirm that this team is not a serious contender. Despite playing in a soft division, the Titans were only able to pull off a 9-7 season. That mark is disconcerting when you consider that not only have the Titans played the weakest schedule of all playoffs teams but also of all 32 franchises in the league. This year, Tennessee’s opponents compiled a dismal 104-136 (.433) combined record. Titans’ only wins in the past seven weeks have been against its dreadful division mates. That includes a three-game losing streak (out of AFC South) before knocking off a mildly disinterested Jacksonville squad this past Sunday. Two of three road wins in that span were also against divisional opponents with third being an overtime win at 0-16 Browns. Now this very mediocre club will travel on a short week with uninspiring quarterback Marcus Mariota (13 touchdowns, 15 intercepts this season) making his first playoff appearance. Since 2002, first-timers have not fared well with just two victories in 13 tries, 4-9 against the spread (ATS). Conversely, Kansas City’s much-maligned QB Alex Smith has had some of his best performances in the post-season. In six playoff games, he’s thrown for 1481 yards, 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions and this may be his best supporting cast yet. Chiefs have bounced back from mid-season slump with four straight wins, all rather handily and should have little trouble with this unimposing visitor.
TAKING: CHIEFS -8½
Falcons (10-6) at Rams (11-5)
LINE: LA RAMS by 6½
While we greatly admire the Rams, they are simply being overpriced here. As mentioned above, first-time quarterbacks have not had an easy time of it. Now we have Jared Goff, off a fine season no doubt, squaring off against the experienced arm of Matt Ryan. That alone makes the points offered difficult to refuse. Granted, Atlanta is not the offensive powerhouse that it was a year ago. However, the Falcons match up well here as they can succeed with play-action passes to its talented running backs as the Rams have proven vulnerable in that area. In addition, Atlanta has inconspicuously been on a bit of roll lately with six wins in past eight games, allowing them to make this post-season. The Falcons’ only losses in that frame were not shameful ones, occurring at hands of NFC contenders Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. Atlanta’s defence has also pulled up its socks in the last half of the year, allowing just 17.9 points per game. This LA team can do a lot of things well. They were the top scoring team in the NFL this season, averaging just under 30 points per game with Goff tossing 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Todd Gurley has emerged as a top back and stud defensive lineman Aaron Donald remains a force. But in the end, Ryan’s experience (also 10-5 ATS when taking 6 or more) is enough to keep this game within range and that’s the way we’ll lean.
TAKING: FALCONS +6½
Bills (9-7) at Jaguars (10-6)
LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 8½
We’ll cut to the chase here. This is a ridiculous pointspread. The Jaguars are not worthy of this kind of respect. Maybe against the Browns or Colts of the world but not against another playoff team. Yes, their statistics suggest that they are a top defensive team. However, when you play the league’s second easiest schedule (opposition .438 winning percentage) and hail from the crummy AFC South, it’s not difficult to pad those stats. Have you seen the Jags play lately? Better yet, why would you want to? Maybe you wanted to have a peek when they went on a three-game ‘tear’ to start December? If so, let us remind you that those were consecutive home games against the Colts, declining Seahawks (missing five defensive starters) and Texans. Jacksonville didn’t finish as well, now entering these playoffs on a two-game slide. Sure the Bills were fortunate to make these playoffs but let’s not penalize them for that. They won four of final six games with both losses occurring against mighty Patriots. Tyrod Taylor keeps proving that he’s a decent leader. He’s careful with the ball and he’s a proficient runner when he has to be. Would rather have a cautious Taylor than an error-prone Blake Bortles in a game of this magnitude. Buffalo’s defence, particularly it’s secondary, can rattle Bortles who threw 13 picks this season while fumbling nine times. This game is a toss-up, making the bulky pointspread offered an easy take.
TAKING: BILLS +8½
Panthers (11-5) at Saints (11-5)
