Saturday Service Play Thread 9/21/2019

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MARCO

PLAY: (349) WASHINGTON -5.5
RATING: 4% PLAY


Coming into the season I felt Washington was the Best Team in the PAC 12 and I still feel that way even though Washington lost 2 weeks ago to Cal. Note that game had a long weather delay you never know how teams are going to be affected by something like that. I’m going to dismiss that loss also pointing out that Cal has a solid defense. This play is all about going against BYU who is coming off back to back Upsets in OT over Power 5 Conference teams Tennessee and USC. We went against USC last week because USC was in the middle of a sandwich spot and BYU took advantage of it. But now after BYU stormed the field last week it’s time to fade BYU as they are in the flat spot this week. I realize Washington has USC on deck but do you really think they will look ahead to USC when BYU just beat USC. Not to mention look at BYU’s schedule this will be 4 straight Big Games for them. Opened with Utah, Tennessee, USC and now Washington. BYU has to be worn out. Washington has a great defense and should limit BYU much like Utah did earlier this year. Washington QB Jacob Eason is the best QB BYU will have seen so far and in his 1st season with Washington Eason is hitting 69% of his throws for 773 yards and a 7-1 TD to INT ratio. Washington is also rushing for 190 yards per game at nearly 5 yards a pop. Washington rolls big 34-20.


TAKE WASHINGTON as MARCO’S 4% WISE GUY GAME
 

Dr. Bob who?
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Stephen Oh
Data Scientist

Northwestern +9.5
 

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It's Friday night and I'm surprised no one has asked for North Coast yet and their September 5*. I used to talk with their office and they told me services have big plays as a marketing tool. They have been very good at GOY's but they have not been good with their Sept 5*'s. If they had, they would've listed them in their newsletter.

Don't ask for this tomorrow, it will be posted and don't go crazy on it, it's just another play.

GL
 

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I hear ya MG. Since the play is free, there will be many to get it. Historically, the 5* selection is in one of the newsletters as a 3 star or 2 star.....Then it magically becomes a 5* play. My earlier post (above) lists all the newsletter plays this week so chances are, it will be one of these. 11:15 tomorrow the play will be released by phone to most. 11:00 it will be released to a few. Either way, it will be posted.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 12:00PM
359 Southern Miss. 38.5(-110) William Hillvs 360 Alabama single-dime bet

Analysis: Southern Miss comes in off an upset win at Troy last week. The two teams combined for 1,154 total yards including 1,018 yards passing and 42 4Q points. Southern Miss WR Quez Watkins had 209 yards receiving while Jaylond Adams had 180 receiving yards and also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. On the other side, South Carolina had a 31-25 first down edge but Alabama had a 571-459 yard edge in the Crimson Tide’s 47-23 win. The Gamecocks got a 11-yard TD pass with :11 left for the back-door cover. Note they were covering the whole game until Bama scored a TD with 2:04 left. Remember Alabama is just 6-17 ATS laying 35 or more points since late 2011. We like the dog who has plenty of back-door potential here especially with a sleepy 11:00am local kick.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 12:00PM
359 Southern Miss. 38.5(-110) William Hillvs 360 Alabama single-dime bet

Analysis: Southern Miss comes in off an upset win at Troy last week. The two teams combined for 1,154 total yards including 1,018 yards passing and 42 4Q points. Southern Miss WR Quez Watkins had 209 yards receiving while Jaylond Adams had 180 receiving yards and also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. On the other side, South Carolina had a 31-25 first down edge but Alabama had a 571-459 yard edge in the Crimson Tide’s 47-23 win. The Gamecocks got a 11-yard TD pass with :11 left for the back-door cover. Note they were covering the whole game until Bama scored a TD with 2:04 left. Remember Alabama is just 6-17 ATS laying 35 or more points since late 2011. We like the dog who has plenty of back-door potential here especially with a sleepy 11:00am local kick.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 7:00PM
329 Old Dominion 28.5(-110) William Hill vs 330 Virginia single-dime bet

Analysis: Last week, we pushed with UVA -7 over Florida St. Virginia had 27-21 first down and 415-329 yard edges but were -2 in TO’s and UVA actually trailed 17-10 entering the 4Q. The situation says to play Old Dominionhere who comes in off a bye after giving a scare to Virginia Tech a couple weeks ago in a 14-point loss. Meanwhile, Virginia comes in off that emotional win vs Florida State and the Cavaliers have a huge trip to Notre Dame on deck. We like the dog.
 

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RJ White week 3 super contest plays, 7-3 first 2 weeks
Lions Falcons Rams Seahawks and Steelers
 

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TEDDY COVERS

Game: (343) MICHIGAN at (344) WISCONSIN
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: MICHIGAN 3.5 (-110)

View Analysis

4% Take Michigan (#343)
The concept here is as simple as it gets: Buy low, Sell high. The lookahead line this summer at the Westgate Superbook ‘Games of the Year’ was Michigan -7.5 in Madison. The markets are saying that there is an 11 point difference between what these two teams were supposed to be at what they actually are after a two game sample size. I’m not buying that argument one iota.
Wisconsin has an amazing statistical profile after shutting out USF and Central Michigan by a combined 110-0 score, two teams that couldn’t match up with the Badgers in the trenches. Michigan, on the other hand, didn’t cover the spread in their opener against Middle Tennessee State and never sniffed a pointspread cover in a tough, gutty win against Army. The betting markets are viewing the two games that each team has already played as hugely significant ATS this week. I couldn’t disagree more.
Army was a tough opponent for Michigan – hungry, disciplined and focused with a unique style of offense. USF and Central Michigan were easy opponents for Wisconsin because they couldn’t hang tough in the trenches – period. The disparate final scores for those games means NOTHING moving forward……..except for its effect on the pointspread.
The Wolverines won three road games last year and four road games the year before; not a team that I hesitate to back on the highway. They’re coming off a tough test – that they passed – and a bye week; primed to play their best game of the season here. The Badgers are taking a HUGE step up in defensive class. Much like Maryland – Temple last week; I have little hesitation fading a team off multiple blowout wins now facing a ‘real’ opponent with an inflated pointspread! Live dog here! Take Michigan.
Line Parameter: 4% at +3 or higher, 3% at +2.5 or lower.
 

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ROB VENO FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (311) UL MONROE at (312) IOWA STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 56.0 (-110)




UL-Monroe @ Iowa State Analysis

Like the scheduling situation here in this one as UL-Monroe comes in off of a bye week while Iowa State enters after their heartbreaking 18-17 loss to in-state rival Iowa. Don’t envision this as a payday throwaway game for the Warhawks who boast an explosive offense led by sr. QB Caleb Evans. Fully understand the opposing defenses they’ve faced to date are not in the same category as the Cyclones but their run/pass offensive balance, wide open play calling and dual threat QB are all productive features that ISU’s defense has not encountered thus far. Other side of the coin signals an offensive breakout for Iowa State which steps down significantly in defensive class this week. Monroe was punished for 243 rushing yards on 6.6 per carry by FCS Grambling State en-route to 407 total yards while Florida State torched them for 501 yards gaining 219 on the ground and 282 through the air. Look for Iowa State QB Brock Purdy who just went 25/35/327/71.4% completions versus the rugged Iowa defense to have a field day here while the ground game should click as well. Realistic to expect a Cyclones non-conference, double digit favorite look-ahead spot here since they come off an intense, draining, maximum effort contest and have their Big 12 opener next week against Baylor. That could open the door for the dynamic ULM offense to blindside Iowa State’s defense. Expect each offense to have point scoring success and surprised at the downward movement of the total to 56 off the opener of 57. More than willing to step in and take advantage in a game where 60+ is more than capable of being scored. Recommendation: OVER 56
 

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Any Carmine Bianco or Nick Borrman 5* plays??? These guys are crushing soccer right now.
 

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Thanks guys for Sallee's plays.

Gold Sheet!

Byu
Northwestern
Louisville

Marc lawrence

Notre dame
Pitt
Stanford
 

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Someone recommend a service to purchase (here or PM). I want to contribute.
 

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