Dr. Chuck
Game: (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135)
View Analysis
Soroka v. Alcantara
Atlanta came straight to Miami after walloping the Twinkies up in Target Field for 2 of 3 and promptly came out flat in every way! They righted the ship last night evening the series and now after defeating Caleb Smith last night they have their young top of the rotation stud ROY likely Mike Soroka getting to face Sandy Alcantara.
Sandy has fit our xFIP fade system for a while now...and it's only gotten better in spurts over the past couple months. Since June 1st his xFIP has ballooned to. 5.80 with an ERA OF 4.80. He hasn't faced the Braves since early April and it didn't go well back then...and the Braves have gotten better on offense. Since 8/1 the Braves are right at the top of all hitting metrics facing RHP on the road...with 6 wRAA and .367 wOBA, 54 wRC, a 10% BB rate, and 127 wRC+ just in the 10 days of August!
Sandy already walks far too many batters and clogs the bases with very minimal ability to get Ks to get himself out of jams.
Mike Soroka has been excellent all around...and in fact of all the GB pitchers in the league he combines the lowest FB rate with the lowest HR/FB rate with the highest IFFB rate. It is an amazing 3 way metric combination especially against a very subpar lineup on a regular basis....and especially one that seems to have blown their whole wad with the BIG win on Thursday!
This should be ugly early...but even were Soroka to get himself into trouble he has all the tools to get out...and Alcantara doesn't have the goods to keep this lineup at bay. The Braves know they let one slip but have a chance to dominate and still take 3 of 4...and with all 9 at bats on the road as well...going to be something like 10-3 or maybe worse in my estimation. I think Soroka can get into the 7th and Sandy maybe not even through the 4th inning.
Game: (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135)
View Analysis
Soroka v. Alcantara
Atlanta came straight to Miami after walloping the Twinkies up in Target Field for 2 of 3 and promptly came out flat in every way! They righted the ship last night evening the series and now after defeating Caleb Smith last night they have their young top of the rotation stud ROY likely Mike Soroka getting to face Sandy Alcantara.
Sandy has fit our xFIP fade system for a while now...and it's only gotten better in spurts over the past couple months. Since June 1st his xFIP has ballooned to. 5.80 with an ERA OF 4.80. He hasn't faced the Braves since early April and it didn't go well back then...and the Braves have gotten better on offense. Since 8/1 the Braves are right at the top of all hitting metrics facing RHP on the road...with 6 wRAA and .367 wOBA, 54 wRC, a 10% BB rate, and 127 wRC+ just in the 10 days of August!
Sandy already walks far too many batters and clogs the bases with very minimal ability to get Ks to get himself out of jams.
Mike Soroka has been excellent all around...and in fact of all the GB pitchers in the league he combines the lowest FB rate with the lowest HR/FB rate with the highest IFFB rate. It is an amazing 3 way metric combination especially against a very subpar lineup on a regular basis....and especially one that seems to have blown their whole wad with the BIG win on Thursday!
This should be ugly early...but even were Soroka to get himself into trouble he has all the tools to get out...and Alcantara doesn't have the goods to keep this lineup at bay. The Braves know they let one slip but have a chance to dominate and still take 3 of 4...and with all 9 at bats on the road as well...going to be something like 10-3 or maybe worse in my estimation. I think Soroka can get into the 7th and Sandy maybe not even through the 4th inning.
TEDDY COVERS
Game(967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
View Analysis
3% Take Boston (#968) on the Run Line
The long dormant Red Sox are legitimately showing signs of life. They’ve won three out of four, including the first two games of this series by a combined margin of 19-4. Manager Alex Cora, following Thursday’s win, BEFORE to yesterday’s big blowout: “Yesterday was a great day. You felt the energy today the whole day. That's how it starts."
The Angels are trending in the opposite direction, losers of eight straight games, with an ice cold lineup that hasn’t scored more than four runs in any of those eight defeats. Yesterday, Albert Pujols hit a three run homer in the first inning. LA’s offense was held to one hit over the final eight innings. Embattled manager Brad Ausmus: “It's an embarrassing loss, quite frankly. We didn't pitch. We didn't hit, other than Albert's homer in the first. We really haven't done much of either the past week. That's what happens when you have losing streaks, when you're not hitting or pitching.”
After a series of rough showings (hence the cheap price to support the Red Sox today), Rick Porcello finally threw a gem last time out, holding the Royals to a single run on four hits. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen has every key arm rested and ready for today. LA hurler Andrew Heaney is making his first start off the DL, and he got blasted in his most recent meeting against Boston: six runs in 3.1 innings of work.
The best way to approach today’s game, in this bettor’s opinion, is to go for the ‘plus price’ return on investment here with a Run Line play. LA isn’t hitting, the Red Sox pen is rested and ready, and all eight meetings between these two teams since the start of 2018 have been Red Sox wins by multi-run margins. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.
Line Parameter: 3% at -1.5 (+111) or higher, 2% at -1.5 (+110) or lower
Game(967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
View Analysis
3% Take Boston (#968) on the Run Line
The long dormant Red Sox are legitimately showing signs of life. They’ve won three out of four, including the first two games of this series by a combined margin of 19-4. Manager Alex Cora, following Thursday’s win, BEFORE to yesterday’s big blowout: “Yesterday was a great day. You felt the energy today the whole day. That's how it starts."
The Angels are trending in the opposite direction, losers of eight straight games, with an ice cold lineup that hasn’t scored more than four runs in any of those eight defeats. Yesterday, Albert Pujols hit a three run homer in the first inning. LA’s offense was held to one hit over the final eight innings. Embattled manager Brad Ausmus: “It's an embarrassing loss, quite frankly. We didn't pitch. We didn't hit, other than Albert's homer in the first. We really haven't done much of either the past week. That's what happens when you have losing streaks, when you're not hitting or pitching.”
After a series of rough showings (hence the cheap price to support the Red Sox today), Rick Porcello finally threw a gem last time out, holding the Royals to a single run on four hits. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen has every key arm rested and ready for today. LA hurler Andrew Heaney is making his first start off the DL, and he got blasted in his most recent meeting against Boston: six runs in 3.1 innings of work.
The best way to approach today’s game, in this bettor’s opinion, is to go for the ‘plus price’ return on investment here with a Run Line play. LA isn’t hitting, the Red Sox pen is rested and ready, and all eight meetings between these two teams since the start of 2018 have been Red Sox wins by multi-run margins. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.
Line Parameter: 3% at -1.5 (+111) or higher, 2% at -1.5 (+110) or lower
Dr. Chuck
Game: (967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 11.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Heaney v. Porcello
Heaney is coming off the IL and gets greeted back with the BoSox at Fenway off a 16 run performance from Boston in the series opener! His numbers are nothing short of grim against this lineup historically boasting a .439 wOBA, and even worse .445 xwOBA, and an 8.10 FIP!
Porcello mostly speaks for himself and while nowhere near as remarkably bad as Heaney...but a normal .355 wOBA and 4.46 FIP.
The wind will be blowing hard out to fight in Fenway and the Sox certainly don't need a ton of help to hit bombs...the Angels should have a much easier time as well!
Not often a number this high is a bargain...but it is at Under 12 for such a matchup!
