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Saturday Service Play Thread 7/27/2019
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (971) Minnesota Twins at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Perez v. Nova
1) All 9 at bats will happen for our side no matter the score...a side that happens to be the hottest offense in the majors over the past week!
2) Since last weekend, the Twins are the best facing any handed pitcher, but let's focus on the RHP since Ivan Nova is such:
in 210 PAs (less by a decent margin than the next 4 teams in line) they have amassed metrics including:
.275 ISO/.967 OPS/ 41 wRC/ 147 wRC+ and 14.5 wRAA!! (in the so far short series against these Sox they have also expanded on these numbers!)
3) Ivan Nova is sporting very low K rate with just over 5 per 9 innings in combination with the Twins low K rate on offense. He has a 20% HR/FB rate despite being a ground ball pitcher nearing the 50% mark for the season...as well as habitually over his career- the Twins are right at the top of the league over the past week hitting 24% of their FB for HR...in fact only making "soft" contact merely 10% of the time. Nova made the Marlins look absolutely silly earlier this week...throwing a gem of a complete game, allowing 1 run, and facing 31 batters! No 2 lineups could be more different however, (maybe Boston) and this does not bode well if Nova approaches this game with the same stuff, in fact his last 2 starts inside the division yielded a 7.26 and 5.98 xFIP.
4) Nova's offense coming into this game, facing lefties, over the same period of since last weekend!:
with the most PAs over the stretch facing LHP, the ChiSox have put up incredibly poor numbers:
4% BB rate/ 30% K rate, 9 wRC, 59 wRC+, -6.4 wRAA, and .254 wOBA
5) Wind blowing hard out to left field tonight - at 15+ MPH
which pitcher in tonight's game is in the "top 5" for allowing hitters to pull the ball- Ivan Nova at damn near 50% and 52% when facing right handed hitters! at nearly 40% hard contact!- Cruz and Sano who are raking more than anyone in the league with a .634/.430 wOBA respectively during this span should make things incredibly difficult on Nova. Of the 2, Cruz also already hammers Nova historically with a .357 BA and .508 wOBA in his career! In addition to Cruz, Jason Schoop has had great success, with Max Kepler not too shabby all well above average in most categories facing Nova.
6) Martin Perez coming from the left side has not been one of the better starters for the Twins breakout season so far this year, but where he excels (if the White Sox needed any more red flags for them offensively sans Tim Anderson) is in limiting hard contact and even moreso, barrell of the bat contact! less than 5% on the season
The value here has been immense for this play both of the first 2 games of the series, and while I agree the Twins overall haven't been as good since the break as beforehand, the offense is in FULL FORCE and the value getting this run line at close to normal vigorish is IMMENSE!
Game: (979) Houston Astros at (980) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-113)
View Analysis
Cole v. Ponce de Leon
Game: (971) Minnesota Twins at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Perez v. Nova
1) All 9 at bats will happen for our side no matter the score...a side that happens to be the hottest offense in the majors over the past week!
2) Since last weekend, the Twins are the best facing any handed pitcher, but let's focus on the RHP since Ivan Nova is such:
in 210 PAs (less by a decent margin than the next 4 teams in line) they have amassed metrics including:
.275 ISO/.967 OPS/ 41 wRC/ 147 wRC+ and 14.5 wRAA!! (in the so far short series against these Sox they have also expanded on these numbers!)
3) Ivan Nova is sporting very low K rate with just over 5 per 9 innings in combination with the Twins low K rate on offense. He has a 20% HR/FB rate despite being a ground ball pitcher nearing the 50% mark for the season...as well as habitually over his career- the Twins are right at the top of the league over the past week hitting 24% of their FB for HR...in fact only making "soft" contact merely 10% of the time. Nova made the Marlins look absolutely silly earlier this week...throwing a gem of a complete game, allowing 1 run, and facing 31 batters! No 2 lineups could be more different however, (maybe Boston) and this does not bode well if Nova approaches this game with the same stuff, in fact his last 2 starts inside the division yielded a 7.26 and 5.98 xFIP.
4) Nova's offense coming into this game, facing lefties, over the same period of since last weekend!:
with the most PAs over the stretch facing LHP, the ChiSox have put up incredibly poor numbers:
4% BB rate/ 30% K rate, 9 wRC, 59 wRC+, -6.4 wRAA, and .254 wOBA
5) Wind blowing hard out to left field tonight - at 15+ MPH
which pitcher in tonight's game is in the "top 5" for allowing hitters to pull the ball- Ivan Nova at damn near 50% and 52% when facing right handed hitters! at nearly 40% hard contact!- Cruz and Sano who are raking more than anyone in the league with a .634/.430 wOBA respectively during this span should make things incredibly difficult on Nova. Of the 2, Cruz also already hammers Nova historically with a .357 BA and .508 wOBA in his career! In addition to Cruz, Jason Schoop has had great success, with Max Kepler not too shabby all well above average in most categories facing Nova.
6) Martin Perez coming from the left side has not been one of the better starters for the Twins breakout season so far this year, but where he excels (if the White Sox needed any more red flags for them offensively sans Tim Anderson) is in limiting hard contact and even moreso, barrell of the bat contact! less than 5% on the season
The value here has been immense for this play both of the first 2 games of the series, and while I agree the Twins overall haven't been as good since the break as beforehand, the offense is in FULL FORCE and the value getting this run line at close to normal vigorish is IMMENSE!
Game: (979) Houston Astros at (980) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-113)
View Analysis
Cole v. Ponce de Leon
JOE RAINERI BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (959) Chicago Cubs at (960) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -115
View Analysis
So the Brewers took advantage of Pedro Strop and the Cubs bullpen last night to open up this series with a win. They look to capitlize on that victory and keep rolling tonight against John Lester.
Lester was scratched from his last start against the Giants because of a high fever and In his last outing at home against the Padres, Lester labored through 6 innings, somehow only giving up 4 runs on 12 hits. He's got an awful 1.526 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is facing a Milwaukee team that is going to come in with a ton of confidence after last night's late rally in a 3-2 win. He’s also not had a great history against the Brewers in his career, as the Brew Crew has a .305 batting average and .355 OBA in 128 at-bats.
Brewers starter Chase Anderson has a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cubs. They are hitting just .212 against Anderson in 146 at-bats. Following the loss last night, the Cubs are a horrific 19-30 on the road this season. On the flip side, the Brewers are now 32-23 at home.
The Cubs might be tempting to select on Saturday behind Lester, but he and the Cubs on the road have not been a profitable selection
Give me the Brewers to keep it rolling today at home against a pitcher and team that continues to struggle when away from Wrigley Field.
I'm betting the Brewers today on the ML at a great price
Game: (959) Chicago Cubs at (960) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -115
View Analysis
So the Brewers took advantage of Pedro Strop and the Cubs bullpen last night to open up this series with a win. They look to capitlize on that victory and keep rolling tonight against John Lester.
Lester was scratched from his last start against the Giants because of a high fever and In his last outing at home against the Padres, Lester labored through 6 innings, somehow only giving up 4 runs on 12 hits. He's got an awful 1.526 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is facing a Milwaukee team that is going to come in with a ton of confidence after last night's late rally in a 3-2 win. He’s also not had a great history against the Brewers in his career, as the Brew Crew has a .305 batting average and .355 OBA in 128 at-bats.
Brewers starter Chase Anderson has a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cubs. They are hitting just .212 against Anderson in 146 at-bats. Following the loss last night, the Cubs are a horrific 19-30 on the road this season. On the flip side, the Brewers are now 32-23 at home.
The Cubs might be tempting to select on Saturday behind Lester, but he and the Cubs on the road have not been a profitable selection
Give me the Brewers to keep it rolling today at home against a pitcher and team that continues to struggle when away from Wrigley Field.
I'm betting the Brewers today on the ML at a great price
