Here are the picks for UFC 253 from Doc’s Sports
Take Jeff Hughes +250 over Juan Espino (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 FIGHT PASS)
In the featured fight pass prelim we have a heavyweight matchup between Jeff Hughes (10-3) and Juan Espino (10-1). Both of these guys came to the UFC from the contender series but have entirely different styles. Jeff Hughes isn't exactly highly skilled in any area, but he does pack a ton of power. He has 4 wins by KO in his 10 professional fights, and has shown a decent chin with only 1 loss coming by knockout. He is happy to stand and bang and always has the ability to catch his opponents whether in the pocket or coming forward with lunging haymakers. Juan Espino on the other hand has a lot more depth to his game. He can throw wild looping punches, and can look a little off balance, but his grappling ability is what makes him a tricky challenge. If Juan is able to get Hughes to the mat we have no doubts he will either finish him by ground and pound, or lock up a submission of some kind. His conditioning is pretty solid, especially for 37 years of age and is the rightful favorite in our opinion due to the extra layers and his more well-rounded abilities. However, Hughes always has the chance to land the big shot and is durable enough to make this interesting. The current market price of +250 is simply too high in our estimation and there is clear value on Hughes, win or lose. This should be priced closer to +185 or so. We do not recommend going big here so we will keep this small based on the value being offered.
Recommended Wager: Jeff Hughes +250
Take Brad Riddell -320 over Alex da Silva and Take Ketlin Vieira -190 over Sijara Eubanks (This is a two-leg Parlay at +100) (9:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 ESPN)
In the featured prelim of the evening, we have a lightweight matchup between Brad Riddell (8-1) and Alex da Silva (21-2). There isn't too much to assess in this one. Riddell is about as good a striker as there is when it comes to technique. He is a kickboxer with an extremely sharp and clean skillset. He has a unique ability to draw you in with his feints and he will tie awkward timed power combinations together as you come in. He has a high IQ and will not engage in risky exchanges... everything is calculated. His opponent, Alex da Silva has good KO power and has a decent ground game, but there's not really much else to say. He can always catch you, especially if he is able to throw off the timing of Riddell with the threat initiating grappling exchanges, but overall this is a clear fight for Brad to win or lose. We expect him to start slow as he assesses the movements and timing of da Silva, but eventually pull away more and more as the fight progresses. Assuming he is able to stay off his back, he should have his way here. Now, moving on to the second leg of this parlay, we have a women's bantamweight matchup between Ketlin Viera (10-1) and Sijara Eubanks (7-4). Eubanks is coming off a big upset win just a few weeks ago, and is on a very quick turnaround as a late replacement, which feels risky considering she will be facing a motivated Ketlin Viera who was undefeated until losing by KO to the ever impressive Irene Aldana. She was caught in that fight with a perfectly timed left hook, and not much else can, or should be said. Eubanks has a very good camp and is a world champion in Jiu-Jitsu although we haven't seen her attempt many submissions since coming to the UFC, which is ironic. Both these women have similar styles and approaches, but Vieira has fought the much stiffer competition, with wins over fighters such as Sara McMann, Cat Zingano and Ashley Evans Smith. It will be interesting to see how she bounces back from her first loss as a pro, but we expect a highly motivated performance. It should also be noted that due to some late cancellations, Eubanks will actually be cutting weight for the 3rd time in as little as a month. That takes its toll on the body no matter how you slice it. This should be a fun one, but one we think Vieria wins. There is value on the -190 in our opinion if you don't want to parlay, but we will hope Riddell wins as he should, leaving us with a very valuable position on Ketlin at +100 to close this out.
Recommended Wager: Brad Riddell -320 and Ketlin Vieira -190 (+100 Parlay)
Take Israel Adesanya -180 over Paulo Costa (11:59p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 PPV)
In the main event of the evening, we have a middleweight title matchup between two undefeated fighters, Israel Adesanya (19-0) and Paulo Costa (13-0). Well, what can we say? This fight has so much hype behind it, and rightfully so. This is going to be extremely fun, and both guys are legitimate world class mixed martial artists, although in terms of style - both couldn't be more opposite. Champion Adesanya has a technical approach and is an elite striker who holds a ridiculous 75-5 kickboxing record. He brings a unique dynamic to the table and has an unshakable confidence that you simply don't see every day. He truly believes he is the world's best, and there is no denying it. In contrast - Paulo Costa is a monster who cuts a ton of weight; he packs a ton of power and will hunt you down non-stop until you cannot take the pressure and barrage of strikes anymore. The one thing we feel is being overlooked a little is the raw talent of Costa. It seems as though the narrative is simply that he is a knockout power puncher. This isn't the be all, end all of him. He also possesses extremely good timing, and is able to make reads on openings which make him a special talent besides his freak athletic build and pure strength. Paulo Costa also has extremely accurate and aggressive finishing instincts. He smells blood better than most, and when he has you hurt, he will find a way to finish you. It should be noted however, that Israel has a very impressive ability to avoid damage. He makes reads on his opponents body language better than anyone we've ever seen. Couple that with his reaction speeds and he becomes a very difficult puzzle for Costa to solve. However, we do have concerns about both men; What can Israel do from his back if put there? Can he take a big shot? Can he deal with the type of pressure Paulo will bring? How will Costa hold up if it makes it into the championship rounds? How will he deal with this level of opponent who can create endless traps and counter him? These are all questions we cannot wait to see answered. When it's all said and done, we expect this fight to be very competitive in the early stages, and Adesanya may have to take a shot or two and dig deeper than ever, but as the fight wears on, we expect a striking clinic, which will frustrate Costa. There is no denying both fighters' talent, but Israel has proven far more against the better competition, and has that air of 'greatness' about him. Costa simply does not possess endless tools nor the ability to switch game-plan, and we believe Israel will start to land at will once he figures out the movements and patterns (assuming he doesn't get smoked). We cannot ignore a more than fair price on potential one of the greatest fighters of this era. Costa is absolutely dangerous, but we think Adesanya is on a different level, both mentally and with his skill sets.
Recommended Wager: Israel Adesanya -180
Take Jeff Hughes +250 over Juan Espino (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 FIGHT PASS)
In the featured fight pass prelim we have a heavyweight matchup between Jeff Hughes (10-3) and Juan Espino (10-1). Both of these guys came to the UFC from the contender series but have entirely different styles. Jeff Hughes isn't exactly highly skilled in any area, but he does pack a ton of power. He has 4 wins by KO in his 10 professional fights, and has shown a decent chin with only 1 loss coming by knockout. He is happy to stand and bang and always has the ability to catch his opponents whether in the pocket or coming forward with lunging haymakers. Juan Espino on the other hand has a lot more depth to his game. He can throw wild looping punches, and can look a little off balance, but his grappling ability is what makes him a tricky challenge. If Juan is able to get Hughes to the mat we have no doubts he will either finish him by ground and pound, or lock up a submission of some kind. His conditioning is pretty solid, especially for 37 years of age and is the rightful favorite in our opinion due to the extra layers and his more well-rounded abilities. However, Hughes always has the chance to land the big shot and is durable enough to make this interesting. The current market price of +250 is simply too high in our estimation and there is clear value on Hughes, win or lose. This should be priced closer to +185 or so. We do not recommend going big here so we will keep this small based on the value being offered.
Recommended Wager: Jeff Hughes +250
Take Brad Riddell -320 over Alex da Silva and Take Ketlin Vieira -190 over Sijara Eubanks (This is a two-leg Parlay at +100) (9:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 ESPN)
In the featured prelim of the evening, we have a lightweight matchup between Brad Riddell (8-1) and Alex da Silva (21-2). There isn't too much to assess in this one. Riddell is about as good a striker as there is when it comes to technique. He is a kickboxer with an extremely sharp and clean skillset. He has a unique ability to draw you in with his feints and he will tie awkward timed power combinations together as you come in. He has a high IQ and will not engage in risky exchanges... everything is calculated. His opponent, Alex da Silva has good KO power and has a decent ground game, but there's not really much else to say. He can always catch you, especially if he is able to throw off the timing of Riddell with the threat initiating grappling exchanges, but overall this is a clear fight for Brad to win or lose. We expect him to start slow as he assesses the movements and timing of da Silva, but eventually pull away more and more as the fight progresses. Assuming he is able to stay off his back, he should have his way here. Now, moving on to the second leg of this parlay, we have a women's bantamweight matchup between Ketlin Viera (10-1) and Sijara Eubanks (7-4). Eubanks is coming off a big upset win just a few weeks ago, and is on a very quick turnaround as a late replacement, which feels risky considering she will be facing a motivated Ketlin Viera who was undefeated until losing by KO to the ever impressive Irene Aldana. She was caught in that fight with a perfectly timed left hook, and not much else can, or should be said. Eubanks has a very good camp and is a world champion in Jiu-Jitsu although we haven't seen her attempt many submissions since coming to the UFC, which is ironic. Both these women have similar styles and approaches, but Vieira has fought the much stiffer competition, with wins over fighters such as Sara McMann, Cat Zingano and Ashley Evans Smith. It will be interesting to see how she bounces back from her first loss as a pro, but we expect a highly motivated performance. It should also be noted that due to some late cancellations, Eubanks will actually be cutting weight for the 3rd time in as little as a month. That takes its toll on the body no matter how you slice it. This should be a fun one, but one we think Vieria wins. There is value on the -190 in our opinion if you don't want to parlay, but we will hope Riddell wins as he should, leaving us with a very valuable position on Ketlin at +100 to close this out.
Recommended Wager: Brad Riddell -320 and Ketlin Vieira -190 (+100 Parlay)
Take Israel Adesanya -180 over Paulo Costa (11:59p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 PPV)
In the main event of the evening, we have a middleweight title matchup between two undefeated fighters, Israel Adesanya (19-0) and Paulo Costa (13-0). Well, what can we say? This fight has so much hype behind it, and rightfully so. This is going to be extremely fun, and both guys are legitimate world class mixed martial artists, although in terms of style - both couldn't be more opposite. Champion Adesanya has a technical approach and is an elite striker who holds a ridiculous 75-5 kickboxing record. He brings a unique dynamic to the table and has an unshakable confidence that you simply don't see every day. He truly believes he is the world's best, and there is no denying it. In contrast - Paulo Costa is a monster who cuts a ton of weight; he packs a ton of power and will hunt you down non-stop until you cannot take the pressure and barrage of strikes anymore. The one thing we feel is being overlooked a little is the raw talent of Costa. It seems as though the narrative is simply that he is a knockout power puncher. This isn't the be all, end all of him. He also possesses extremely good timing, and is able to make reads on openings which make him a special talent besides his freak athletic build and pure strength. Paulo Costa also has extremely accurate and aggressive finishing instincts. He smells blood better than most, and when he has you hurt, he will find a way to finish you. It should be noted however, that Israel has a very impressive ability to avoid damage. He makes reads on his opponents body language better than anyone we've ever seen. Couple that with his reaction speeds and he becomes a very difficult puzzle for Costa to solve. However, we do have concerns about both men; What can Israel do from his back if put there? Can he take a big shot? Can he deal with the type of pressure Paulo will bring? How will Costa hold up if it makes it into the championship rounds? How will he deal with this level of opponent who can create endless traps and counter him? These are all questions we cannot wait to see answered. When it's all said and done, we expect this fight to be very competitive in the early stages, and Adesanya may have to take a shot or two and dig deeper than ever, but as the fight wears on, we expect a striking clinic, which will frustrate Costa. There is no denying both fighters' talent, but Israel has proven far more against the better competition, and has that air of 'greatness' about him. Costa simply does not possess endless tools nor the ability to switch game-plan, and we believe Israel will start to land at will once he figures out the movements and patterns (assuming he doesn't get smoked). We cannot ignore a more than fair price on potential one of the greatest fighters of this era. Costa is absolutely dangerous, but we think Adesanya is on a different level, both mentally and with his skill sets.
Recommended Wager: Israel Adesanya -180
College Football(BOB BALFE)
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #405
Tennessee -3.5 over South Carolina
The Vols know the feeling of their season being shot on the first day of the year as last year Georgia State upset them. This is a team that struggled early on and could have thrown in the towel, but over the 2nd half of the season showed tremendous promise. The Vols bring back a lot of talent from last year and this coaching staff is another year wiser. South Carolina brings in a new offensive coordinator and with him a new QB from the Colorado State system. Collin Hill is not much of a mobile threat so it’s his arm that will have to carry this team that lost a lot of receivers. This is a rebuilding year for this offense. Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols are looking to pick up where they left off late last year. The Vols also return more starting talent on defense. Take Tennessee.
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #405
Tennessee -3.5 over South Carolina
The Vols know the feeling of their season being shot on the first day of the year as last year Georgia State upset them. This is a team that struggled early on and could have thrown in the towel, but over the 2nd half of the season showed tremendous promise. The Vols bring back a lot of talent from last year and this coaching staff is another year wiser. South Carolina brings in a new offensive coordinator and with him a new QB from the Colorado State system. Collin Hill is not much of a mobile threat so it’s his arm that will have to carry this team that lost a lot of receivers. This is a rebuilding year for this offense. Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols are looking to pick up where they left off late last year. The Vols also return more starting talent on defense. Take Tennessee.
