The Bear
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisville Cardinals (-11.5, 57.5)
This number seems a little low, considering Louisville put up 38 points on 415 yards last year against the Hilltoppers in a 38-21 win. That was also Micale Cunningham's fourth career start, so it's more than reasonable to expect at least that baseline of an offensive performance this year vs WKU, given the Cardinals have essentially all of their skill position players back. I expect WKU to put up its fair share of points on a team that gave up 33 PPG a year ago.
Pick: Over 57.5
Syracuse Orange at No. 18 North Carolina Tar Heels (-23, 65.5)
The Bear: It has been a rough offseason for the Orange. They have opt-outs and injuries galore. Last year, Syracuse struggled all over the place. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line were a big part of it, but the team was not competitive in ACC play, as Syracuse was outgained by 124.6 YPG and allowed 33.6 PPG. Syracuse also gave up more than 40 points four times last year and now faces a team with a ton of expectations that will probably be better off than most this season because of the continuity at QB and on the sidelines. Laying 23 might seem like a steep price right off the bat in an unusual season, but it might not seem like enough come the end of the first quarter.
Pick: North Carolina -23
Duke Blue Devils at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20, 54)
The Bear: Sure, QB Chase Brice is in Durham to provide a boost to a Duke offense that struggled mightily in the second half of the season (the Blue Devils were 122nd nationally in offensive EPA). That's very un-David Cutcliffe like. Also very un-Cutcliffe like were the Blue Devils' struggles as an underdog last year, which I outline below. Notre Dame ran for 288 yards on almost seven yards per carry last year in a 38-7 win, and I'm not sure how much improvement there will be on the Duke defense, while the Irish offense probably will be better than last year. Notre Dame handled its business as a huge favorite last year, as the Irish were a 20-point favorite three times last year, winning those games 66-14, 52-0 and 40-7. I expect another blowout here.
Pick: Notre Dame -20