Mike McClure
GOLF
Tony Finau and Ryan Palmer, who've combined for five PGA Tour victories, enter the weekend with a one-shot lead at the 2020 Memorial Tournament. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm, the No. 2 ranked player in the world, sits just one-shot back heading into Saturday. We simulated the final two rounds of the 2020 Memorial Tournament 10,000 times, and there are some MAJOR surprises.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over long shot winner Collin Morikawa last week at the Workday Charity Open. It identified him as a top contender from the start despite his long odds and McClure recommended an outright bet on him to win at 33-1. The model also called Bryson DeChambeau taking the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Additionally, it has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend.
The model predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend.
And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.
The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright.
The projected top 10, according to the model:
1. Jon Rahm (5-2)
2. Tony Finau (4-1)
3. Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
4. Justin Thomas (14-1)
5. Gary Woodland (10-1)
6. Viktor Hovland (16-1)
7. Rory McIlroy (20-1)
8. Ryan Palmer (10-1)
9. Chez Reavie (28-1)
10. Matthew Fitzpatrick (60-1)
The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:
11 Jason Day
12 Luke List
13 Jim Furyk
14 Danny Willett
15 Jordan Spieth
16 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17 Lucas Glover
18 Mackenzie Hughes
19 Henrik Norlander
20 Matt Kuchar
21 Steve Stricker
22 Dylan Frittelli
23 Collin Morikawa
24 Brendan Steele
25 Jimmy Walker
26 Matt Wallace
27 Patrick Rodgers
28 Louis Oosthuizen
29 Xander Schauffele
30 Patrick Reed
31 Brooks Koepka
32 Abraham Ancer
33 Bo Hoag
34 Kevin Na
35 Scott Harrington
36 Harris English
37 Sergio Garcia
38 Scottie Scheffler
39 Kevin Streelman
40 Carl Pettersson
41 Erik Van Rooyen
42 Tiger Woods
43 Lanto Griffin
44 Jason Dufner
45 Marc Leishman
46 Joel Dahmen
47 Corey Conners
48 Adam Hadwin
49 Billy Horschel
50 Brendon Todd
51 Matthew Wolff
52 Sepp Straka
53 Ryan Moore
54 Xinjun Zhang
55 Bubba Watson
56 Charles Howell III
57 Phil Mickelson
58 Scott Piercy
59 Sebastian Munoz
60 Vijay Singh
61 Bud Cauley
62 Si Woo Kim
63 Zach Johnson
64 Denny McCarthy
65 Mark Hubbard
66 Carlos Ortiz
67 Keegan Bradley
68 Cameron Smith
69 Keith Mitchell
70 Tyler Duncan
71 William McGirt
72 Stewart Cink
73 Sung Kang
74 C.T. Pan
GOLF
Tony Finau and Ryan Palmer, who've combined for five PGA Tour victories, enter the weekend with a one-shot lead at the 2020 Memorial Tournament. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm, the No. 2 ranked player in the world, sits just one-shot back heading into Saturday. We simulated the final two rounds of the 2020 Memorial Tournament 10,000 times, and there are some MAJOR surprises.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over long shot winner Collin Morikawa last week at the Workday Charity Open. It identified him as a top contender from the start despite his long odds and McClure recommended an outright bet on him to win at 33-1. The model also called Bryson DeChambeau taking the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Additionally, it has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend.
The model predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend.
And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.
The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright.
The projected top 10, according to the model:
1. Jon Rahm (5-2)
2. Tony Finau (4-1)
3. Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
4. Justin Thomas (14-1)
5. Gary Woodland (10-1)
6. Viktor Hovland (16-1)
7. Rory McIlroy (20-1)
8. Ryan Palmer (10-1)
9. Chez Reavie (28-1)
10. Matthew Fitzpatrick (60-1)
The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:
11 Jason Day
12 Luke List
13 Jim Furyk
14 Danny Willett
15 Jordan Spieth
16 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17 Lucas Glover
18 Mackenzie Hughes
19 Henrik Norlander
20 Matt Kuchar
21 Steve Stricker
22 Dylan Frittelli
23 Collin Morikawa
24 Brendan Steele
25 Jimmy Walker
26 Matt Wallace
27 Patrick Rodgers
28 Louis Oosthuizen
29 Xander Schauffele
30 Patrick Reed
31 Brooks Koepka
32 Abraham Ancer
33 Bo Hoag
34 Kevin Na
35 Scott Harrington
36 Harris English
37 Sergio Garcia
38 Scottie Scheffler
39 Kevin Streelman
40 Carl Pettersson
41 Erik Van Rooyen
42 Tiger Woods
43 Lanto Griffin
44 Jason Dufner
45 Marc Leishman
46 Joel Dahmen
47 Corey Conners
48 Adam Hadwin
49 Billy Horschel
50 Brendon Todd
51 Matthew Wolff
52 Sepp Straka
53 Ryan Moore
54 Xinjun Zhang
55 Bubba Watson
56 Charles Howell III
57 Phil Mickelson
58 Scott Piercy
59 Sebastian Munoz
60 Vijay Singh
61 Bud Cauley
62 Si Woo Kim
63 Zach Johnson
64 Denny McCarthy
65 Mark Hubbard
66 Carlos Ortiz
67 Keegan Bradley
68 Cameron Smith
69 Keith Mitchell
70 Tyler Duncan
71 William McGirt
72 Stewart Cink
73 Sung Kang
74 C.T. Pan
Kyle Marley
For UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez
Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez by decision
This is a rematch from about five months ago, when Figueiredo finished Benavidez in the second round and would have won the title if he made weight for the fight. Now they are going to run it again for the belt. Figueiredo did look good in the first matchup and almost submitted Benavidez in the first round. He was outstruck in both rounds, however, and it really was his power that looked to be the difference for him. I don't know that he can keep that power for five rounds in this one, and Benavidez suffered a cut from a big head butt in the first fight that could have played into the knockout soon afterward. I think -220 is just too high, even though Figueiredo probably wins this fight more than he loses it. This will be a close fight and I will take Benavidez to win three of the five rounds and get his hand raised.
Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson by decision
This is a close one. Kelvin is the better boxer and has more power on the feet. Hermansson is the more active fighter on the feet and probably the better wrestler/grappler, and he is going to have a six-inch reach advantage as well. This will be a close fight, but I would take Hermansson to win this fight slightly more than he loses it. He should be the slight favorite, but Kelvin is a bigger name, so I think we can wait and get underdog money on this one if we are looking to bet it. That is probably what I would try to do if betting on Hermansson. He should be able to keep the striking close, if not even win that battle, and he can fall back on the wrestling to steal close rounds. Hermansson also could make rounds very clear if he comes in with a grappling-based game plan.
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Fiziev by decision
I am pretty high on both of these lightweights. On the feet, this is probably going to be very close, and I can see Fiziev being the faster and more dangerous guy who wins the striking by landing more - and a bigger variety of shots as well. Diakiese is going to need to get this fight to the ground in order to have his real advantage, and that could be enough to get him the win if the striking is close. However, -160 is a tough price to lay, and Diakiese has been a guy I like to bet. I think this might actually be dog or pass because Fiziev is legit on the feet and could even get a finish.
Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina by decision
I expect this to be a striking match, and it probably will be a close one. I really don't trust either fighter or have a strong lean, so I think I have to say it is dog or pass either way. Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter, but I don't see her looking for a lot of takedowns, and on the feet, I could see Carolina landing more volume and winning a striking battle that way. I will take the underdog since I wouldn't want to lay juice on either of these ladies.
Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja by decision
I believe the strength and wrestling departments would be Askarov's only real advantages. Pantoja's grappling is better and more dangerous though, so I don't think Askarov would have a lot of success with the wrestling. On the feet, I have to favor Pantoja. He is going to be the faster and more active striker. He could even get takedowns of his own and is live for a submission if the fight hits the mat.
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Dolidze by TKO
I have not been impressed at all with Ibragimov, and this seems like a match made in order to get Dolidze a win and Ibragimov his pink slip. Dolidze doesn't even look that good, but he does have big power, and Ibragimov is sort of a punching bag. Ibragimov might be able to win this fight on volume if it goes to the judges, but Dolidze probably will knock him out at some point. I don't see either guy sticking around in the UFC for long, however.
Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Narimani by decision
This will be another fun one, and I expect it to be pretty high-paced. Narimani is the better striker with more power, and the better wrestler of the two as well. Dawson is the higher-paced fighter - especially early - who loves to grapple, but those are the only edges I would give him. His style is great enough to beat a lot of guys, but I think Narimani is going to cause some issues, and I don't see Dawson being able to get the fight to the ground as easily as he has been of late. Narimani has what it takes to keep this fight on the feet more than Dawson likes and maybe take him the distance, slowing him down as the fight goes on. I think this is dog or pass, and I am going to pick Narimani to get his hand raised.
Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy by decision
The line might be a bit high on this one, considering Duffy has been thinking about retirement. But stylistically, I do think he is the better fighter everywhere. I don't think he blows Alvarez out of the water anywhere, but I do give him the striking, wrestling and grappling advantages, so I have to lean with him as my pick. I would just be cautious with parlays at this price, but I am going to take Duffy to edge him out.
Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson by decision
This should be a main-card fight because both are high-level fighters, and I believe Jackson is a future champion. I love the striking from Jackson, who is going to be the bigger guy in a lot of his fights. He has great wrestling as well, so I think this kid is the full package. Johns is legit on the ground though, and he could give Jackson problems by either putting him on his back multiple times or possibly even getting a submission. Those are the only two ways I see him winning, and Jackson might even be the better wrestler of the two. I do expect Jackson to clearly win the striking exchanges though, and he probably is my favorite parlay piece on this card.
Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon by submission
I was impressed with the grappling from both of these fighters. I watched Albazi first, and I was pretty sure I was going to pick him because his wrestling and grappling look solid. Then I watched Gordon and thought the same thing about him. I expect it to be very grappling-heavy and will just come down to who gets the dominant positions. I would favor Gordon on the feet though, so that makes this a dog-or-pass fight for me. I do expect it to be a fun grappling match though.
Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Ramos by decision
I like a lot of underdogs on this card, and Ramos is one of them. Tsarukyan has the higher ceiling in the UFC and could even compete for the title one day. He is only 23 years old though, and Ramos is a very tough matchup and not a guy with which you want to be messing around on the ground. Ramos might be the more dangerous of the two, especially early. I think he is more likely to finish and Tsaryukyan more likely to win a decision, but I believe Ramos is live to win the first two rounds as well. If this was an evenly lined fight, I would just take the prospect, but at these odds, this is dog or pass, so I will take Ramos.
Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Felipe by TKO
Felipe hasn't fought in three years, but he looks like a guy who is going to go out there and hunt for the knockout from the start. I would think Spivac has a big edge in the clinch and on the ground, but Felipe looks like he could be difficult to get to the mat. If Felipe doesn't get the KO, he probably loses this fight, and not knowing what his cardio will be like, I think Spivac could finish if he gets the fight to the mat. However, I am taking shots on a bunch of underdogs on this card, so I will take the newcomer to get a first-round KO.
For UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez
Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez by decision
This is a rematch from about five months ago, when Figueiredo finished Benavidez in the second round and would have won the title if he made weight for the fight. Now they are going to run it again for the belt. Figueiredo did look good in the first matchup and almost submitted Benavidez in the first round. He was outstruck in both rounds, however, and it really was his power that looked to be the difference for him. I don't know that he can keep that power for five rounds in this one, and Benavidez suffered a cut from a big head butt in the first fight that could have played into the knockout soon afterward. I think -220 is just too high, even though Figueiredo probably wins this fight more than he loses it. This will be a close fight and I will take Benavidez to win three of the five rounds and get his hand raised.
Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson by decision
This is a close one. Kelvin is the better boxer and has more power on the feet. Hermansson is the more active fighter on the feet and probably the better wrestler/grappler, and he is going to have a six-inch reach advantage as well. This will be a close fight, but I would take Hermansson to win this fight slightly more than he loses it. He should be the slight favorite, but Kelvin is a bigger name, so I think we can wait and get underdog money on this one if we are looking to bet it. That is probably what I would try to do if betting on Hermansson. He should be able to keep the striking close, if not even win that battle, and he can fall back on the wrestling to steal close rounds. Hermansson also could make rounds very clear if he comes in with a grappling-based game plan.
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Fiziev by decision
I am pretty high on both of these lightweights. On the feet, this is probably going to be very close, and I can see Fiziev being the faster and more dangerous guy who wins the striking by landing more - and a bigger variety of shots as well. Diakiese is going to need to get this fight to the ground in order to have his real advantage, and that could be enough to get him the win if the striking is close. However, -160 is a tough price to lay, and Diakiese has been a guy I like to bet. I think this might actually be dog or pass because Fiziev is legit on the feet and could even get a finish.
Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina by decision
I expect this to be a striking match, and it probably will be a close one. I really don't trust either fighter or have a strong lean, so I think I have to say it is dog or pass either way. Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter, but I don't see her looking for a lot of takedowns, and on the feet, I could see Carolina landing more volume and winning a striking battle that way. I will take the underdog since I wouldn't want to lay juice on either of these ladies.
Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja by decision
I believe the strength and wrestling departments would be Askarov's only real advantages. Pantoja's grappling is better and more dangerous though, so I don't think Askarov would have a lot of success with the wrestling. On the feet, I have to favor Pantoja. He is going to be the faster and more active striker. He could even get takedowns of his own and is live for a submission if the fight hits the mat.
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Dolidze by TKO
I have not been impressed at all with Ibragimov, and this seems like a match made in order to get Dolidze a win and Ibragimov his pink slip. Dolidze doesn't even look that good, but he does have big power, and Ibragimov is sort of a punching bag. Ibragimov might be able to win this fight on volume if it goes to the judges, but Dolidze probably will knock him out at some point. I don't see either guy sticking around in the UFC for long, however.
Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Narimani by decision
This will be another fun one, and I expect it to be pretty high-paced. Narimani is the better striker with more power, and the better wrestler of the two as well. Dawson is the higher-paced fighter - especially early - who loves to grapple, but those are the only edges I would give him. His style is great enough to beat a lot of guys, but I think Narimani is going to cause some issues, and I don't see Dawson being able to get the fight to the ground as easily as he has been of late. Narimani has what it takes to keep this fight on the feet more than Dawson likes and maybe take him the distance, slowing him down as the fight goes on. I think this is dog or pass, and I am going to pick Narimani to get his hand raised.
Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy by decision
The line might be a bit high on this one, considering Duffy has been thinking about retirement. But stylistically, I do think he is the better fighter everywhere. I don't think he blows Alvarez out of the water anywhere, but I do give him the striking, wrestling and grappling advantages, so I have to lean with him as my pick. I would just be cautious with parlays at this price, but I am going to take Duffy to edge him out.
Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson by decision
This should be a main-card fight because both are high-level fighters, and I believe Jackson is a future champion. I love the striking from Jackson, who is going to be the bigger guy in a lot of his fights. He has great wrestling as well, so I think this kid is the full package. Johns is legit on the ground though, and he could give Jackson problems by either putting him on his back multiple times or possibly even getting a submission. Those are the only two ways I see him winning, and Jackson might even be the better wrestler of the two. I do expect Jackson to clearly win the striking exchanges though, and he probably is my favorite parlay piece on this card.
Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon by submission
I was impressed with the grappling from both of these fighters. I watched Albazi first, and I was pretty sure I was going to pick him because his wrestling and grappling look solid. Then I watched Gordon and thought the same thing about him. I expect it to be very grappling-heavy and will just come down to who gets the dominant positions. I would favor Gordon on the feet though, so that makes this a dog-or-pass fight for me. I do expect it to be a fun grappling match though.
Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Ramos by decision
I like a lot of underdogs on this card, and Ramos is one of them. Tsarukyan has the higher ceiling in the UFC and could even compete for the title one day. He is only 23 years old though, and Ramos is a very tough matchup and not a guy with which you want to be messing around on the ground. Ramos might be the more dangerous of the two, especially early. I think he is more likely to finish and Tsaryukyan more likely to win a decision, but I believe Ramos is live to win the first two rounds as well. If this was an evenly lined fight, I would just take the prospect, but at these odds, this is dog or pass, so I will take Ramos.
Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Felipe by TKO
Felipe hasn't fought in three years, but he looks like a guy who is going to go out there and hunt for the knockout from the start. I would think Spivac has a big edge in the clinch and on the ground, but Felipe looks like he could be difficult to get to the mat. If Felipe doesn't get the KO, he probably loses this fight, and not knowing what his cardio will be like, I think Spivac could finish if he gets the fight to the mat. However, I am taking shots on a bunch of underdogs on this card, so I will take the newcomer to get a first-round KO.
vs. Manchester City OVER 3 -138 (2:45 PM)Paul Leiner
UFC & Horse Picks 7/18
Sat Jul 18, 2020
Lost of action today...Got some UFC and some big races including the Haskell.
100* Davi Ramos +160
Saratoga Race 1
#3 Mo Mischief $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-2-6
Saratoga Race 10
#6 Paris Lights $10 wps
$2 exacta box 6-1-2
Monmouth Race 12 (Haskell)
#1 Dr Post $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-2-7
UFC & Horse Picks 7/18
Sat Jul 18, 2020
Lost of action today...Got some UFC and some big races including the Haskell.
100* Davi Ramos +160
Saratoga Race 1
#3 Mo Mischief $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-2-6
Saratoga Race 10
#6 Paris Lights $10 wps
$2 exacta box 6-1-2
Monmouth Race 12 (Haskell)
#1 Dr Post $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-2-7
Delta
Race 1:#2 Mr Standing Ovation (4/1)
Race 2:#2 Desire Astoli (6/5)
Race 3:#9 Red Faced Rogue (2/1)
Race 4:#3 Sizzlin Loose (9/5)
Race 5:#2 Unbridled Kas (8/5)
Race 6:#7 Sir Runaway Eye (9/5)
Race 7:#9 Thunder Byrd (2/1)
Race 8:#10 Brileys Prize (1/1)
Race 9:#2 Hot Rod Wagon (2/1)
Race 10:#6 Jess a Joy Ride (8/1)
Race 1:#2 Mr Standing Ovation (4/1)
Race 2:#2 Desire Astoli (6/5)
Race 3:#9 Red Faced Rogue (2/1)
Race 4:#3 Sizzlin Loose (9/5)
Race 5:#2 Unbridled Kas (8/5)
Race 6:#7 Sir Runaway Eye (9/5)
Race 7:#9 Thunder Byrd (2/1)
Race 8:#10 Brileys Prize (1/1)
Race 9:#2 Hot Rod Wagon (2/1)
Race 10:#6 Jess a Joy Ride (8/1)
Prairie Meadows
Race 1:#4 Kool Kue Candy (5/2)
Race 2:#3 Streakin Jesszee (7/2)
Race 3:#4 Rm Okeys Wagon (5/2)
Race 4:#3 Shell Fire (2/1)
Race 5:#2 Philosopher (9/5)
Race 6:#6 Shimmering Dream (9/5)
Race 7:#3 Vandring (8/1)
Race 8:#1 New Gospel (2/1)
Race 9:#1 Fabulous Girl (5/2)
Race 10:#6 Girls in Charge (2/1)
Race 11:#5 Sassy Seta (3/1)
Race 1:#4 Kool Kue Candy (5/2)
Race 2:#3 Streakin Jesszee (7/2)
Race 3:#4 Rm Okeys Wagon (5/2)
Race 4:#3 Shell Fire (2/1)
Race 5:#2 Philosopher (9/5)
Race 6:#6 Shimmering Dream (9/5)
Race 7:#3 Vandring (8/1)
Race 8:#1 New Gospel (2/1)
Race 9:#1 Fabulous Girl (5/2)
Race 10:#6 Girls in Charge (2/1)
Race 11:#5 Sassy Seta (3/1)
Retama
Race 1:#3 Heza Wicked Man (1/1)
Race 2:#7 Mister Royal First (8/1)
Race 3:#7 Mighty High Jmg (5/2)
Race 4:#1 Faodail (5/2)
Race 5:#2 Mr Hatch Tlc (5/2)
Race 6:#8 Relentlessleigh (7/2)
Race 7:#6 Lets Geter Done (9/2)
Race 8:#2 Moonflash Too (6/1)
Race 9:4 Lethal Timber (5/1)
Race 10:#7 Heres a Question (3/1)
Race 1:#3 Heza Wicked Man (1/1)
Race 2:#7 Mister Royal First (8/1)
Race 3:#7 Mighty High Jmg (5/2)
Race 4:#1 Faodail (5/2)
Race 5:#2 Mr Hatch Tlc (5/2)
Race 6:#8 Relentlessleigh (7/2)
Race 7:#6 Lets Geter Done (9/2)
Race 8:#2 Moonflash Too (6/1)
Race 9:4 Lethal Timber (5/1)
Race 10:#7 Heres a Question (3/1)
Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 7/18/20
July 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, July 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Monmouth Park Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Mo Mischief; 6-Repo Rocks
Forecast: Mo Mischief brought $500,000 at the OBS March sale after breezing a quarter mile in a sizzling :21 flat, and the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be plenty fit following a healthy series of drills that date back to late May. We caught a glimpse of this colt at Palm Beach Downs in early June (view workout) and came away with the impression that he would be capable of displaying plenty of zip when turned loose. Repo Bucks is a debuting Tapiture colt from the W. Mott barn, and while the stable isn’t known to crank ‘em up first time out this colt is bred to be quick and shows a work tab that indicates plenty of speed and ability. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both will be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Mo Mischief.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mr. Kringle; 3-Winning Factor
Forecast: Mr. Kringle has been competitive in recent stakes and allowance races but is eligible to this starter’s affair for having started in a $50,000 claimer in his debut last October. The J. Terranova-trained colt is dropping to steal a purse after finishing a distant but respectable third in a listed event last month at Belmont Park. From the rail, the son of Shakin It Up is guaranteed a second flight, ground-saving trip and against this group certainly will be a short price to regain his winning form. Winning Factor is worth consideration in rolling exotic play, at least as a back-up or a saver. Considerably improved in his last pair after joining the D. Donk barn, he broke his maiden last time out in $40,000 seller while earning a number that makes him fairly competitive with ‘Kringle. A son of The Factor who prefers to lay back and then blast home, he came against the grain to graduate going away like a colt who has finally figured things out.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Decorated Invader
Forecast: Decorated Invader has the makings of an exceptional turf colt and is most deserving of strong favoritism in this year’s edition of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S.-G2. Perfect in two starts as a 3-year-old, the son of Declaration of War was a Grade-1 winner as a juvenile (Summer S. at Woodbine) and looks even better in 2020, having won the Cutler Bay S. in March at Gulfstream Park and then most recently blowing past his opposition to capture the Pennine Ridge S.-G2 last month. He’s certain to be odds-on, so let’s pass the race other than to use the C. Clement-trained 3-year-old as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Baby Boss; 7-Letmetakethiscall
Forecast: Baby Boss is a stakes winner dropping into a seller for the first time – certainly suspiciously so off a nearly seven month layoff– but if the New York-bred mare reproduces her best form (and leaves cleanly from the rail) she should be able to outrun this group at short odds. The work tab at Finger Lakes seems decent enough but the barn’s record with comebackers is only so-so. There are too many mixed signals to have any degree of confidence, so for protection we’ll also include Letmetakethiscall, a solid third vs. $25,000 foes last month and being raised a notch in class today in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. Always thoroughly genuine and consistent, the veteran Take Charge Indy mare does her best running on the front end and will try to pop and go from her cozy outside draw.
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RACE 5: Post 3:24 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Conglomerate; 6-Oak Hill; 9-The Angry Man
Forecast: This looks like a stronger than average maiden race for older horses at a mile over the inner turf course. We’ll go three-deep while preferring The Angry Man on top. With the always-preferred two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve dramatically on grass, the son of Summer Front is strong on speed figures, switches to J. Rosario, exits a fast, highly-rated race, and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. Oak Hill closed a gap sprinting on grass in his debut at Churchill Downs last month in a fairly promising effort and hails from a barn that usually does well with second-timers. The A. Stall-trained son of Distorted Humor shows a nice three furlong blowout on grass just five days ago to have him right on edge. Conglomerate has been in training for a long time and finally makes it to the post. The C. Brown-trained colt has shown plenty of promise in drills dating back to last year, and as a son of Lemon Drop Kid (and a long-striding one at that) he should be especially effective on grass. We suggest you include him.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Catman; 8-Breakthrough; 10-Pivotal Mission
Forecast: Here’s an intriguing two-turn maiden race on grass for 2-year-olds. Breakthrough has the benefit of a couple of prior runs and sports the dangerous two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern. The W. Ward-trained colt has burned money in both of his outings, hitting the board but failing to punch it in as the favorite, but his most recent race wasn’t bad as he was almost three lengths clear of the rest despite a less-than-ideal trip. He’s a son of Nyquist and therefore should handle the trip, and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number. Catman has been training at Indiana Downs but shows up for his debut at Saratoga, so he were going to assume that he’s somewhat well regarded. The M. Maker-trained son of Kitten’s Joy is 8-1 under I. Ortiz, Jr., so at that price we’ll give him some consideration. Pivotal Mission, purchased for $200,000 as a yearling, is a son of Noble Mission from a strictly European female family and has been doing some good work at Fair Hills for G. Motion. It’s possible he’ll need a race but a bullet five furlong drill over the all-weather track in 1:00 1/5 nine days ago catches the eye so we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 7: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Yaupon; 2-Binkster
Forecast: Yaupon showed some moxie in his victorious debut at Churchill Downs last month, battling bravely under pressure the length of the lane and winning by a nose (pair more than four clear of the rest) while earning a strong speed figure. The. S. Asmussen-trained son of Uncle Mo returns off a month’s rest with two easy recent local breezes, and if he can leave cleanly from the rail he seems capable of scoring right back. Binkster is considerably more seasoned, having finished first or second in nine of 20 career outings, including a pair of strong runner-up efforts over the Saratoga main track last year. He projects to be close to the pace throughout and have every chance when it matters. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to the high-potential Yaupon.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Creative Style; 7-Shalako; 9-Hammerin Aamer
Forecast: There should be enough pace in this nine furlong $25,000 claimer to set things up for the closers, so in what has to be a spread race we’ll concentrate and those that figure to benefit from the projected race flow. Creative Style is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track and is fresh from a sharp win with a strong figure in a $32,000 seller at Belmont Park four weeks ago. This class drop off a win always is of some concern, but if the Creative Cause gelding has one good one left he should be hard to beat. Hammerin Aamer actually won his most recent start at Laurel Park in gate-to-wire fashion at a one-turn mile but the son of Jump Star can be effective from the second flight if the race shape dictates. From the high-percentage B. Russell barn, the veteran gelding is fast on speed figures off his best race and is realistically spotted in his first start for a tag. Shalako is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and in a race in which the fractions should be fairly quick the son of Malibu Moon could be heard from late at a nice price (he’s 10-1 on the morning line). With eight career wins on his resume, the veteran gelding knows where the wire is.
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RACE 9: Post 5:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ramsey Solution; 6-Set Piece; 7-Digital Age
Forecast: Set Piece won his U.S. debut at Churchill Downs last month like a gelding with a future, and this jump to the three-other-than allowance ranks should be within his scope. A stakes winner in his final English outing last November over an all-weather surface that was assigned a giant Timeform Rating, the son of Dansili can really blast home and with a repeat of either one of his last two outings he should be capable of producing another winning late kick. Digital Age is another deep closer that should be heard from in the final stages. Though beaten as the favorite in his recent comeback at Belmont Park, the stretch-running Irish-bred colt earned a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today he could give ‘Piece a serious challenge. Second in the Saratoga Derby over the local lawn last year and the winner of the American Turf S.-G2 earlier in his sophomore campaign, the C. Brown-trained colt retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The lightly-raced Ramsey Solution also should be included on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver. Capable of winning on the front end or as a stalker, the son of Real Solution is fast on figures, and with just five career starts (three wins) the W. Ward-trained gelding has plenty of room for further development.
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RACE 10: Post 6:16 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tonalist’s Shape; 6-Paris Lights
Forecast: Paris Lights has the perfect stalking style for this nine furlong distance and can dictate the race flow from her cozy outside draw. A winner of two of three career starts, the last two by daylight in dominating style, the W. Mott-trained daughter of Curlin should get nothing but better with experience and maturity, and while this will be her first appearance in a stakes race, the daughter of Curlin should be able to take the class hike in stride. Tonalist’s Shape boasts an impressive resume – she’s won six of seven starts including four stakes, three of then graded. Her numbers have fluctuated but she’s fast when she needs to be and has the pedigree to improve as the distances increase. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Paris Lights.
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RACE 11: Post 6:49 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Midnight Whisker; 7-Papa Luke
Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden special weight sprint for New York-bred older horses. Papa Luke was more than three clear of the rest when a solid runner-up in a similar maiden dash at Belmont Park last month, and a repeat of that race today could put the Strong Mandate gelding in the winner’s circle. The A. Dutrow-trained 4-year-old is drawn outside the other speed, so stalking tactics can be employed if Johnny V. so chooses. Midnight Whisker has improving form for S. Asmussen, retains J. Rosario, and shows a healthy, steady series of workouts since finishing a close fourth (beaten a neck) in a muddy track affair in early June. The son of Bourbon Courage projects as a pace-forcer, and with another forward move could stick around a long time.
July 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, July 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Monmouth Park Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Mo Mischief; 6-Repo Rocks
Forecast: Mo Mischief brought $500,000 at the OBS March sale after breezing a quarter mile in a sizzling :21 flat, and the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be plenty fit following a healthy series of drills that date back to late May. We caught a glimpse of this colt at Palm Beach Downs in early June (view workout) and came away with the impression that he would be capable of displaying plenty of zip when turned loose. Repo Bucks is a debuting Tapiture colt from the W. Mott barn, and while the stable isn’t known to crank ‘em up first time out this colt is bred to be quick and shows a work tab that indicates plenty of speed and ability. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both will be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Mo Mischief.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mr. Kringle; 3-Winning Factor
Forecast: Mr. Kringle has been competitive in recent stakes and allowance races but is eligible to this starter’s affair for having started in a $50,000 claimer in his debut last October. The J. Terranova-trained colt is dropping to steal a purse after finishing a distant but respectable third in a listed event last month at Belmont Park. From the rail, the son of Shakin It Up is guaranteed a second flight, ground-saving trip and against this group certainly will be a short price to regain his winning form. Winning Factor is worth consideration in rolling exotic play, at least as a back-up or a saver. Considerably improved in his last pair after joining the D. Donk barn, he broke his maiden last time out in $40,000 seller while earning a number that makes him fairly competitive with ‘Kringle. A son of The Factor who prefers to lay back and then blast home, he came against the grain to graduate going away like a colt who has finally figured things out.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Decorated Invader
Forecast: Decorated Invader has the makings of an exceptional turf colt and is most deserving of strong favoritism in this year’s edition of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S.-G2. Perfect in two starts as a 3-year-old, the son of Declaration of War was a Grade-1 winner as a juvenile (Summer S. at Woodbine) and looks even better in 2020, having won the Cutler Bay S. in March at Gulfstream Park and then most recently blowing past his opposition to capture the Pennine Ridge S.-G2 last month. He’s certain to be odds-on, so let’s pass the race other than to use the C. Clement-trained 3-year-old as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Baby Boss; 7-Letmetakethiscall
Forecast: Baby Boss is a stakes winner dropping into a seller for the first time – certainly suspiciously so off a nearly seven month layoff– but if the New York-bred mare reproduces her best form (and leaves cleanly from the rail) she should be able to outrun this group at short odds. The work tab at Finger Lakes seems decent enough but the barn’s record with comebackers is only so-so. There are too many mixed signals to have any degree of confidence, so for protection we’ll also include Letmetakethiscall, a solid third vs. $25,000 foes last month and being raised a notch in class today in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. Always thoroughly genuine and consistent, the veteran Take Charge Indy mare does her best running on the front end and will try to pop and go from her cozy outside draw.
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RACE 5: Post 3:24 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Conglomerate; 6-Oak Hill; 9-The Angry Man
Forecast: This looks like a stronger than average maiden race for older horses at a mile over the inner turf course. We’ll go three-deep while preferring The Angry Man on top. With the always-preferred two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve dramatically on grass, the son of Summer Front is strong on speed figures, switches to J. Rosario, exits a fast, highly-rated race, and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. Oak Hill closed a gap sprinting on grass in his debut at Churchill Downs last month in a fairly promising effort and hails from a barn that usually does well with second-timers. The A. Stall-trained son of Distorted Humor shows a nice three furlong blowout on grass just five days ago to have him right on edge. Conglomerate has been in training for a long time and finally makes it to the post. The C. Brown-trained colt has shown plenty of promise in drills dating back to last year, and as a son of Lemon Drop Kid (and a long-striding one at that) he should be especially effective on grass. We suggest you include him.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Catman; 8-Breakthrough; 10-Pivotal Mission
Forecast: Here’s an intriguing two-turn maiden race on grass for 2-year-olds. Breakthrough has the benefit of a couple of prior runs and sports the dangerous two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern. The W. Ward-trained colt has burned money in both of his outings, hitting the board but failing to punch it in as the favorite, but his most recent race wasn’t bad as he was almost three lengths clear of the rest despite a less-than-ideal trip. He’s a son of Nyquist and therefore should handle the trip, and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number. Catman has been training at Indiana Downs but shows up for his debut at Saratoga, so he were going to assume that he’s somewhat well regarded. The M. Maker-trained son of Kitten’s Joy is 8-1 under I. Ortiz, Jr., so at that price we’ll give him some consideration. Pivotal Mission, purchased for $200,000 as a yearling, is a son of Noble Mission from a strictly European female family and has been doing some good work at Fair Hills for G. Motion. It’s possible he’ll need a race but a bullet five furlong drill over the all-weather track in 1:00 1/5 nine days ago catches the eye so we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 7: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Yaupon; 2-Binkster
Forecast: Yaupon showed some moxie in his victorious debut at Churchill Downs last month, battling bravely under pressure the length of the lane and winning by a nose (pair more than four clear of the rest) while earning a strong speed figure. The. S. Asmussen-trained son of Uncle Mo returns off a month’s rest with two easy recent local breezes, and if he can leave cleanly from the rail he seems capable of scoring right back. Binkster is considerably more seasoned, having finished first or second in nine of 20 career outings, including a pair of strong runner-up efforts over the Saratoga main track last year. He projects to be close to the pace throughout and have every chance when it matters. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to the high-potential Yaupon.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Creative Style; 7-Shalako; 9-Hammerin Aamer
Forecast: There should be enough pace in this nine furlong $25,000 claimer to set things up for the closers, so in what has to be a spread race we’ll concentrate and those that figure to benefit from the projected race flow. Creative Style is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track and is fresh from a sharp win with a strong figure in a $32,000 seller at Belmont Park four weeks ago. This class drop off a win always is of some concern, but if the Creative Cause gelding has one good one left he should be hard to beat. Hammerin Aamer actually won his most recent start at Laurel Park in gate-to-wire fashion at a one-turn mile but the son of Jump Star can be effective from the second flight if the race shape dictates. From the high-percentage B. Russell barn, the veteran gelding is fast on speed figures off his best race and is realistically spotted in his first start for a tag. Shalako is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and in a race in which the fractions should be fairly quick the son of Malibu Moon could be heard from late at a nice price (he’s 10-1 on the morning line). With eight career wins on his resume, the veteran gelding knows where the wire is.
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RACE 9: Post 5:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ramsey Solution; 6-Set Piece; 7-Digital Age
Forecast: Set Piece won his U.S. debut at Churchill Downs last month like a gelding with a future, and this jump to the three-other-than allowance ranks should be within his scope. A stakes winner in his final English outing last November over an all-weather surface that was assigned a giant Timeform Rating, the son of Dansili can really blast home and with a repeat of either one of his last two outings he should be capable of producing another winning late kick. Digital Age is another deep closer that should be heard from in the final stages. Though beaten as the favorite in his recent comeback at Belmont Park, the stretch-running Irish-bred colt earned a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today he could give ‘Piece a serious challenge. Second in the Saratoga Derby over the local lawn last year and the winner of the American Turf S.-G2 earlier in his sophomore campaign, the C. Brown-trained colt retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The lightly-raced Ramsey Solution also should be included on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver. Capable of winning on the front end or as a stalker, the son of Real Solution is fast on figures, and with just five career starts (three wins) the W. Ward-trained gelding has plenty of room for further development.
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RACE 10: Post 6:16 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tonalist’s Shape; 6-Paris Lights
Forecast: Paris Lights has the perfect stalking style for this nine furlong distance and can dictate the race flow from her cozy outside draw. A winner of two of three career starts, the last two by daylight in dominating style, the W. Mott-trained daughter of Curlin should get nothing but better with experience and maturity, and while this will be her first appearance in a stakes race, the daughter of Curlin should be able to take the class hike in stride. Tonalist’s Shape boasts an impressive resume – she’s won six of seven starts including four stakes, three of then graded. Her numbers have fluctuated but she’s fast when she needs to be and has the pedigree to improve as the distances increase. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Paris Lights.
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RACE 11: Post 6:49 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Midnight Whisker; 7-Papa Luke
Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden special weight sprint for New York-bred older horses. Papa Luke was more than three clear of the rest when a solid runner-up in a similar maiden dash at Belmont Park last month, and a repeat of that race today could put the Strong Mandate gelding in the winner’s circle. The A. Dutrow-trained 4-year-old is drawn outside the other speed, so stalking tactics can be employed if Johnny V. so chooses. Midnight Whisker has improving form for S. Asmussen, retains J. Rosario, and shows a healthy, steady series of workouts since finishing a close fourth (beaten a neck) in a muddy track affair in early June. The son of Bourbon Courage projects as a pace-forcer, and with another forward move could stick around a long time.
Mike McClure
UFC
Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez
Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Diakiese
Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina
Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Ibragimov
Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Dawson - Like Narimani in DFS still
Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy
Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson
Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon
Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Tsarukyan
Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Spivac
UFC
Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez
Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Diakiese
Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina
Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Ibragimov
Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Dawson - Like Narimani in DFS still
Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy
Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson
Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon
Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Tsarukyan
Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Spivac
