Saturday Service Play Thread 05/10/2025

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AJ Hoffman | UFC Prop	Sat, 05/10/25 - 6:30 PM
24101 Muhammad / 24102 Della Maddalena Almakhan (-155)	double-dime bet

Analysis:
Bekzat Almakhan -155

0-1 in the UFC, but Almakhan's first shot came on short notice against Umar Nurmagomedov, and he showed well in defeat. Here he gets Brad Katona, who is solid, but doesn't have the dynamic finishing ability to make top level guys worry. I worry a little about the Canadian crowd influencing a decision, but I also don't really see a path to victory for Katona outside of a bad decision.

Pick Made: May 9 2025 3:01PM PST

 

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AJ Hoffman | UFC Prop	Sat, 05/10/25 - 6:30 PM
24101 Muhammad / 24102 Della Maddalena Stirling-3.5 (-195)	double-dime bet

Analysis:
Navajo Stirling -3.5

Stirling should have a huge physicality advantage, and his opponent is an atypical UFC roster addition. Erslan is solid everywhere, and puts on some fun fights, but has faired poorly when stepping up in class. That seems to be the case here. If this goes the distance, I expect Stirling to dominate the cards, and if there is a finish I can only project Stirling as the one getting it.

Pick Made: May 9 2025 3:07PM PST

 

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AJ Hoffman | UFC Prop	Sat, 05/10/25 - 6:30 PM
24101 Muhammad / 24102 Della Maddalena Malott (-170)	double-dime bet

Analysis:
Mike Malott -170

Radtke has overachieved to this point, going 3-1 in the UFC behind a game that doesn't look like it should work. There is always the possibility that he is going to be a guy who historically wins like that, but it is not something I am projecting. Malott being the much better grappler, seemingly has more paths to victory. His lone UFC loss came in a fight where he was rolling against Neil Magny before gassing ou®t, and I don't think Radtke is going to drag him into those deep waters.

Pick Made: May 9 2025 3:10PM PST

 

[Track]

AJ Hoffman | UFC Prop	Sat, 05/10/25 - 6:30 PM
24101 Muhammad / 24102 Della Maddalena Bukauskas (-105)	double-dime bet

Analysis:
Modestas Bukauskas -105

Pick Made: May 9 2025 3:12PM PST

 

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AJ Hoffman | UFC MoneyLine	Sat, 05/10/25 - 6:30 PM
24101 Muhammad (-175) Circa Sports vs 24102 Della Maddalena	triple-dime bet

Analysis:
Belal Muhammad -175

Belal has fully weaponized his cardio, not unlike Merab Dvalishvili. He never gases before his opponent, and his style just sucks the air out of them. I do think eventually someone will come along who won't be overwhelmed by his constant attempts to wrestle, but it won't be Jack Della-Madelena. Della is a heavy puncher, but Belal has proven durable enough to walk through and drag this fight into depths that the challenger will not be able to handle. I expect a lopsided decision win here.

Pick Made: May 9 2025 3:16PM PST