SATURDAY July 14 Community Plays/Reasoning/Positive Discussion welcomed

[TimmyRules]

This will be a work in progress so any suggestions welcome.

What I would like to get is your pick(s) and reasoning.

List some facts that swayed you, or state something like
computer system or fade or follow another capper...anything
that will help a discussion if another person likes the opposite side.

At the end of the day you are the person making the phone call or
entering your wager and password but it doesn't hurt to have different
opinions on a game. You can then decide which way to wager or skip
the game entirely.

Money management, preventing negative relationship or financial
situations, having fun, and beating the book should be our ultimate goal!

The sooner we can post plays for the day the more time for positive discussions.

Thanks to all who are willing to share and give this a shot.

Saturday Plays start here!:toast:

 

[TimmyRules]

Philly with Nola. Haven't decided whether to play -1 or -1x.

He has pitched great last 3 although against Mets, Balt, Was.

Richards beat Phils but that was Jake when he was sucking.

Phils aren't scoring a ton of runs is only reason I don't jump
on RL right away.

 

[rpark]

Chi/ SD O8. Hendricks 4.4 era on the road, predomo era over 10 at home. Reyburn ump is 8 over to 9 unders so far so neutral. Temp 70F which is fine for SD. Chi hitting well except for the 2 games in sf but I attribute that to sf stadium more than anything especially if chi gets around 10 hits in Fri night's game in SD.

 

[rpark]

Philly with Nola. Haven't decided whether to play -1 or -1x.

He has pitched great last 3 although against Mets, Balt, Was.

Richards beat Phils but that was Jake when he was sucking.

Phils aren't scoring a ton of runs is only reason I don't jump
on RL right away.

Phi 7-8 rl when road favorite and mia is 24-22 rl as home underdog. Mia prob in the same group of crappy hitting teams like mets balt and was. Looking at -1, dont see value in -1.5.

 

[TimmyRules]

Thanks rpark!!

 

[TimmyRules]

FWIW-we have an early start at Pitt due to double header.
i know there is some crazy stat about how few sweeps there
are on a DH so heads up for 2nd game.

Holmes doesn't look very impressive so if Pitt wins game 1
i will play a little extra on Milw Gm2

 

[TimmyRules]

If you like LaD un8 better hurry as it's still that on 5D...I'm seeing its
down to 7 on scoresandodds

 

[rpark]

rackley is 10-3 over to unders this season. he'll be the ump at lad. may look at over if it goes to 7

 

[sunshine11]

2-0 +2.05 Units
early start. I have a nice system play on Brewers -118 ML ​ they have lost 3 games in a row and have failed to cover the +1.5 in all 3 games. I get a lot of winners this way.

 

[TimmyRules]

2-0 +2.05 Units
early start. I have a nice system play on Brewers -118 ML ​ they have lost 3 games in a row and have failed to cover the +1.5 in all 3 games. I get a lot of winners this way.

Obviously game1...is it safe to say if they happen to lose you will
also play them Game2??

Anderson looks good-he and the bullpen better give up 3 or less
to have a chance.

With this being such an early game I'm taking unders.

 

[TimmyRules]

rackley is 10-3 over to unders this season. he'll be the ump at lad. may look at over if it goes to 7

I like a stat like that but then I wonder if the pitchers were shitty or in a hitter friendly ballpark, but thanks for pointing that out

a good discussion item!

 

[TimmyRules]

Chi/ SD O8. Hendricks 4.4 era on the road, predomo era over 10 at home. Reyburn ump is 8 over to 9 unders so far so neutral. Temp 70F which is fine for SD. Chi hitting well except for the 2 games in sf but I attribute that to sf stadium more than anything especially if chi gets around 10 hits in Fri night's game in SD.

Going to throw a little on OV 4x FF also!

 

[TimmyRules]

My two early plays will be

Pit Un8x early game and neither team consistently scoring runs
Phil-1 Nola superior pitcher - waiting to play as line is dropping

 

[TimmyRules]

Don't see the gigilo beating Boston but leaning more on
taking Boston TT ov 5x game based on info from Kaboom

debating ov 3 FF but it's an early start and will the bats be awake??

 

[maddog1987]

My two early plays will be

Pit Un8x early game and neither team consistently scoring runs
Phil-1 Nola superior pitcher - waiting to play as line is dropping

I don't do totals but looked hard at the early Pit game and agree the under is the play - now at 9 at all 3 of my books.

Really like what you are doing here Timmy. It is a big plus for the form which was going down hill lately.

 

[maddog1987]

I don't do totals but looked hard at the early Pit game and agree the under is the play - now at 9 at all 3 of my books.

Really like what you are doing here Timmy. It is a big plus for the form which was going down hill lately.

So sorry...I was looking at the wrong game at my books on the Pit total. It is 8.5... big mistake by me on looking at the lines.

 

[TimmyRules]

So sorry...I was looking at the wrong game at my books on the Pit total. It is 8.5... big mistake by me on looking at the lines.

No worries! I know I shouldn't (even on small wager) but I played Un9@-135....

 

[rpark]

http://statfox.com/mlb/umpire.asp?umpireid=RACKLEY+DAVID&season=2018

Looking at the 7 and 7.5 over under lines. I think at 7 I would contemplate an over bet.

 

[schmitty83]

Hey Timmy, regarding double header sweeps I was thinking the same as you and have taken the split on Game #2 a few times this year. I found an article (link below) that says from 2008 to 2017 there have been 231 double headers with 120 sweeps, so a sweep is a slight favorite. However this year there have been 14 double headers and only 3 sweeps.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/19/15982598/doubleheader-sweep-probability-analysis

 

[TimmyRules]

Thanks for researching that DH data.

I know I'd be more comfortable taking Suter in GM2
if Pit wins game1.

If Milw wins may just skip GM2....let's see how it plays out.