Three weeks into the season, finally, a huge payoff. And with 13+ units riding. 4-1 Friday, +11.41 units.
YTD: 21-17, +14.47 units
Oakland RL -102. Only 3 units, but I'll probably regret it. The Astros best pitcher, Cosart, got hammered early, leaving in the 1st. That means the Astros used 8.1 innings of relievers for this game, including dependable long reliever, Paul Clemens for 4 IPs. On Saturday, Oberholtzer is under the gun to go 5 or 6 innings or their BP will be completely depleted. But Oberholtzer's stuff is not quite as good as Cosart's. Oberholtzer might have more poise, but throws a low 90s, high 80s fastball, and commands his average off-speed pitches well. Unfortunately, the A's are killing it now, hitting much better pitchers than what the Astros have with Oberholtzer or in their BP. Kazmir was a great signing, and is the veteran ace of this staff, has been dominant so far, and is murder on LH batters. The A's bullpen is deep and very good, and the difference with the Astros BP is huge. Houston is hitting .174 over the past week and almost have no chance here. I know in baseball that betting RL and betting favorites are no way to win in the long run, but the circumstances here are just so glaring that I can see Oakland winning all these games easily- unless they get complacent.
Cinn. -136 ML. 2 units. The Cubs have, for a long while, wilted when facing tough pitching. They have 18 runs in the past week, batting .204. Some of those runs came in garbage time vs. STL. Now they face the Reds' Cingrani. Cingrani throws mostly fastballs, but has wicked, almost unbelievable movement on them. His command can be spotty, walking some, but he can be very difficult to hit and strikes out many. He's allowed only 10 hits in 3 starts this year. The Cubs are 7-40 off of him going back to last year. Edwin Jackson…. the most traded guy in the mlb, along with Bedard. Jackson has good stuff, but drives managers crazy. He can be a 1st inning adventure until he settles in, nibbles terribly with men on base, and generally relies on a fastball-slider mix with slightly reduced velocity. The Cubs made a mistake signing him. And finally the Reds are hitting. They have seen Jackson plenty and know what he can do. The Reds also have the BP edge.
Baltimore +128. ML 2 units. I have never been a Doubront fan because he also relies too much on a fastball-slider mix, with the 2 pitches being too close in velocity. Doubront, like Jackson, seems to lack that pitchability or sense of what to do in certain situations. Baltimore has faced him plenty, and 3-4 of them have lit him up. The Red Sox are still looking like a much lesser team than last year. They would have NEVER gotten swept at home, as they had by the Brewers, in past years. The Orioles send Bud Norris, who pitched very well his last outing. Norris has very good stuff, and has to be estatic escaping Houston and playing for a baseball savvy team like Baltimore. He doesn't want to disappoint. The Orioles are also hitting much better than earlier in the season. The Orioles seem to enjoy the short parks of the AL East and have the power to exploit them.
YTD: 21-17, +14.47 units
Oakland RL -102. Only 3 units, but I'll probably regret it. The Astros best pitcher, Cosart, got hammered early, leaving in the 1st. That means the Astros used 8.1 innings of relievers for this game, including dependable long reliever, Paul Clemens for 4 IPs. On Saturday, Oberholtzer is under the gun to go 5 or 6 innings or their BP will be completely depleted. But Oberholtzer's stuff is not quite as good as Cosart's. Oberholtzer might have more poise, but throws a low 90s, high 80s fastball, and commands his average off-speed pitches well. Unfortunately, the A's are killing it now, hitting much better pitchers than what the Astros have with Oberholtzer or in their BP. Kazmir was a great signing, and is the veteran ace of this staff, has been dominant so far, and is murder on LH batters. The A's bullpen is deep and very good, and the difference with the Astros BP is huge. Houston is hitting .174 over the past week and almost have no chance here. I know in baseball that betting RL and betting favorites are no way to win in the long run, but the circumstances here are just so glaring that I can see Oakland winning all these games easily- unless they get complacent.
Cinn. -136 ML. 2 units. The Cubs have, for a long while, wilted when facing tough pitching. They have 18 runs in the past week, batting .204. Some of those runs came in garbage time vs. STL. Now they face the Reds' Cingrani. Cingrani throws mostly fastballs, but has wicked, almost unbelievable movement on them. His command can be spotty, walking some, but he can be very difficult to hit and strikes out many. He's allowed only 10 hits in 3 starts this year. The Cubs are 7-40 off of him going back to last year. Edwin Jackson…. the most traded guy in the mlb, along with Bedard. Jackson has good stuff, but drives managers crazy. He can be a 1st inning adventure until he settles in, nibbles terribly with men on base, and generally relies on a fastball-slider mix with slightly reduced velocity. The Cubs made a mistake signing him. And finally the Reds are hitting. They have seen Jackson plenty and know what he can do. The Reds also have the BP edge.
Baltimore +128. ML 2 units. I have never been a Doubront fan because he also relies too much on a fastball-slider mix, with the 2 pitches being too close in velocity. Doubront, like Jackson, seems to lack that pitchability or sense of what to do in certain situations. Baltimore has faced him plenty, and 3-4 of them have lit him up. The Red Sox are still looking like a much lesser team than last year. They would have NEVER gotten swept at home, as they had by the Brewers, in past years. The Orioles send Bud Norris, who pitched very well his last outing. Norris has very good stuff, and has to be estatic escaping Houston and playing for a baseball savvy team like Baltimore. He doesn't want to disappoint. The Orioles are also hitting much better than earlier in the season. The Orioles seem to enjoy the short parks of the AL East and have the power to exploit them.
