CFB Week 2 Notes:
Oregon players went toward Pacific coast to practice this week after air in Eugene was affected by wildfires in that area. Ducks (+3) lost 35-32 in Lincoln LY, despite rushing for 336 yards- since 2015, they are 3-10 vs spread at home. Since ’13, Nebraska is 12-6-1 vs spread in road games; Cornhuskers allowed 415 passing yards in surprisingly tough 43-36 home win over Arkansas St. last week. ASU outgained Nebraska 497-463. Last 4+ years, Big 14 teams are 15-10-1 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 opponent, but only 4-6 when favored- underdogs were 17-8-1 vs spread in those games.
Louisville/North Carolina are meeting for first time as ACC rivals; Cardinals won three of last four meetings (last one was in ’12). Louisville outgained Purdue 524-344 LW but struggled to a 35-28 (-26) win in Hoosier Dome. Cardinals are 10-7 vs spread on road under Petrino, 7-5 as a road favorite; they’ve got a great QB (Jackson) but only three other returning starters on offense. North Carolina lost 35-30 (-12.5) at home to Cal last week; Tar Heels allowed 363 passing yards. UNC is 19-12 vs spread at home under Fedora.
Iowa won three of last four games with Iowa State, winning 31-17/27-21 in last two visits to Ames. Iowa averaged 34.5 pts/game in their last four games at ISU. Hawkeyes shut down Wyoming 24-3 LW but gained only 263 yards themselves- they are 16-4 vs spread in last 20 road games, covering 11 of last 12 tries as a road favorite. Cyclones beat a I-AA team last week; State was 4-1 as a home dog LY, in Campbell’s 1st year as ISU’s coach. Iowa’s OL has 99 returning starts, State only 35. Since 2011, Big X teams are 10-9 vs spread when facing a Big 14 opponent.
Pittsburgh (-5) beat Penn State 42-39 last year; Pitt ran the ball for 341 yards in former rivals’ first meeting since 2000. Panthers needed OT to beat I-AA Youngstown 28-21 LW, after blowing a 21-0 halftime lead. Nittany Lions crushed Akron 52-0 LW, running ball for 247 yards- since ’14 they’re 10-6 vs spread as a home favorite. Since ’15, Pitt is 6-3 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 non-league games. ACC teams won 8 of last 10 games vs Big 14 foes (6-4 vs spread). Both teams have experienced offensive lines.
Arkansas (+7.5) won 41-38 at TCU LY, teams’ first meeting in 20+ years. Frogs outgained the Hogs 572-403 but were -2 in turnovers in game Arkansas led 13-0 at the half. Since 2014, TCU is 7-5 vs spread in non-league games; since 2011, they’re 5-13 as a road favorite. 9 of Horned Frogs’ top 10 OL guys are back from LY. Arkansas is 6-8 vs spread in last 14 home games; they’re 6-6 as a home dog under Bielema. Razorbacks have 70 starts back on OL. both teams have senior QB’s. Last three years, Big X teams are 9-7 vs spread when facing an SEC squad.
South Carolina was outgained 504-246 last week but they beat NC State 35-28; Gamecocks ran kick back for a TD- since 2013, Carolina is 7-13 vs spread in true road games- they’ve got 98 starts back on OL and have an impressive sophomore QB in Bentley. Problem is, NC State threw for 415 yards against them LW. Missouri gained 815 TY LW in 72-43 win over a I-AA team- game was 48-35 at half. Mizzou covered five of last seven home games. Teams split last four meetings. Both teams have 10 returning starters on offense.
Clemson (-9) held off Auburn 19-13 LY, outgaining War Eagles 399-262, holding Auburn to 87 rushing yards. Since 2014, Auburn is 4-8 vs spread on road; Baylor transfer Stidham gets his first big test as Auburn’s QB- his OL has 106 returning starts. Clemson has a new QB; they thrashed Kent State LW, but Kent threw only 5 passes the whole game, so Clemson’s pass defense is an unknown. Since 2013, Clemson is 15-12-1 vs spread at home. Since 2015, ACC teams are 15-11 vs spread won facing an SEC opponent.
Georgia’s starting QB Eason sprained his knee last week; true freshman Fromm gets his first college start here— he was 10-15/143 against Appalachian State LW. Since 2014, Dawgs are 7-5 vs spread on road; their OL has only 45 returning starts, but they’ve got 10 returning starters on defense. Since 2013, Notre Dame is 8-10 vs spread as a home favorite; Irish have 15 starters back- their OL has 76 returning starts. ND beat rebuilding Temple 49-16 LW, running ball for 422 yards- their QB and two RB’s all had 100+ yards on the ground.
Ohio State (-1) went to Norman LY and beat Oklahoma 45-24, running ball for 291 yards; they were +2 in turnovers. Buckeyes were down in 3rd quarter at Indiana LW but won going away, 49-21; they’re 17-19 vs spread as home favorites under Meyer. OSU has a senior QB and 15 returning starters. Since 2012, Oklahoma is 15-10 vs spread on road; they’re 4-2 as a road underdog the last 10 years. Sooners have a new coach, but a senior QB and 97 retiring starts on their OL. Indiana threw for 420 yards LW; can Mayfield pull the road upset?
Memphis/Central Florida both have offensive lines with 100+ returning starts; Tigers won opener 37-29 in quagmire LW, so stats are misleading. Memphis is 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog. Since 2010, Knights are 24-14 vs spread as a home favorite; they passed for 439 yards LW in easy win over FIU. UCF won its last nine games with Memphis, but covered only one of last four; teams haven’t met since 2013— Memphis has gotten good since then, but they’re still 0-4 in last four trips to UCF (0-4 vs spread).
Stanford won its last three games with USC, by 19-10-17 points; underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine series games. Cardinal won four of last five games in the Coliseum. Stanford is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 true road games; they were in Australia two weeks ago, crushing Rice 62-7- they’ve got 8 starters back on both sides of the ball. USC was tied with Western Michigan in 4th quarter LW, pulled away late for 49-31 win. Since 2011, Trojans are 23-11 as home favorites; since ’14, they’re 13-6 vs spread at home.
Utah won its last six games with BYU; they were underdog in three of those games- their last four series wins were all by 7 or less points. Utes are 12-5 vs spread in last 17 true road games. BYU is 13-11-1 vs spread at home; they didn’t cross the 50-yard line in ugly 27-0 loss to LSU in New Orleans last week. Utes won last two visits to Provo, 20-13/34-10. This is intense rivalry that had a 2-year gap in it- this is Utes’ first visit to BYU since 2013- underdogs covered six of last seven series games. BYU is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog.
Boise State (-11) beat Washington State 31-28 LY, despite Coogs passing for 480 yards; Boise is 11-6 vs spread on road under Harsin- they’re 9-6 vs spread in last 15 non-league games. Wazzu is 8-5 vs spread in its last 13 home games; they’ve got 16 starters back and Falk is a really good senior QB (29 starts). Boise State (-11) got past Troy State 24-13 LW; Coogs drilled an inferior I-AA opponent. Last 2+ years, Pac-12 schools are 15-9-1 vs spread when playing a Mountain West opponent.