Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**LSU vs. Wisconsin**
-- LSU will invade Lambeau Field in Green Bay for a rare college game at the storied venue Saturday afternoon against Wisconsin. These schools are poised to collide at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
--This is a rematch of the season opener for both schools held in Houston two seasons ago. With Melvin Gordon sidelined for nearly all of the second half after running all over LSU in the early going, the Tigers rallied in the second half to capture a 28-24 win as 3.5-point favorites.
-- LSU finished 2015 with a 9-3 straight-up record and a 5-6-1 against-the-spread mark. Les Miles’s team went to Tuscaloosa unbeaten and ranked fourth in the nation, only to take a 30-16 thumping from Alabama. This led to a three-game losing streak that included beatdown defeats at home vs. Arkansas and at Ole Miss. The slide led to Miles coming extremely close to being fired after 11 successful seasons. For the entire week leading into the regular-season finale at home vs. Texas A&M, Miles was as good as gone. However, with the state of Louisiana going through all sorts of financial turmoil, the idea of paying Miles north of $15 million just to go away led to a public-relations nightmare. Then when LSU beat the Aggies 19-7 and Miles was carried off the field by his team to the massive approval of the crowd at Tiger Stadium, the LSU brass knew it had to reverse course. Hence, Miles was retained but could be facing the same situation in November if LSU isn’t in the race for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
-- We should note that LSU’s cupcake opener against McNeese State was cancelled due to weather last year, so it really should’ve been another 10-win campaign for Miles. Also, the Tigers smashed Texas Tech by a 56-27 count as seven-point ‘chalk’ at the Texas Bowl.
-- LSU brings back eight starters on offense and nine on defense, including Heisman Trophy candidate Leonard Fournette. The junior RB rushed for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry as a sophomore. He also had 19 receptions for 253 yards and one TD. Fournette will run behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation. QB Brandon Harris, who completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 2,165 yards with a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year, has a pair of future NFL receivers to target. Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural are a pair of burners whose stats don’t do them any sort of justice because of the shaky QB play they’ve dealt with in Baton Rouge. Dupre had 43 catches for 698 yards and six TDs in ’15, while Travin Dural had 28 receptions for 533 yards and three TDs.
-- Fournette suffered a mild a ankle sprain a couple of weeks ago that forced him to miss about a week of practice, but he’s now 100 percent and ready to go against Wisconsin. LSU will be without four players versus the Badgers. Starting senior DE Christian LaCouture and back-up LB Isaiah Washington both went down with season-ending knee injuries in August. LaCouture had 35 tackles and one sack last season. WR Tyron Johnson elected to transfer recently after catching nine passes for 150 yards and two TDs as a true freshman in ’15. Also, senior reserve safety Corey Thompson is out indefinitely due to a leg injury. Thompson has eight career starts 66 career tackles.
-- LSU’s defense wasn’t on the level it has consistently displayed during Miles’s tenure last season. John Chavis bolted for Texas A&M following the ’14 campaign, leading to the hire of defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. This was a major downgrade and the Tigers allowed 24.3 points per game. Steele is out and now holds the same post at Auburn. Meanwhile, I feel like Miles made a stellar hire by bringing in Dave Aranda from Wisconsin. Aranda will work with better talent at LSU one year after leading a unit that gave up just 13.7 PPG.
-- LSU’s defense lost leading tackler Deion Jones, but nine of its top 11 tacklers are back in the mix. Senior DE Lewis Neal was a third-team All-SEC selection in ’15 when he tallied 48 tackles, eight sacks, 1.5 tackles behind the line, six passes broken up and eight QB hurries.
-- Wisconsin went 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS in its first season under Paul Chryst, who took over following the shocking departure of Gary Andersen to Oregon State. Chryst had spent three years as the head coach at Pitt after serving as UW’s offensive coordinator during record-setting seasons from 2005-11. Chryst was born and raised in Madison and played QB for the Badgers from 1985-88.
-- Wisconsin returns 12 total starters, six on each side of the ball. However, the Badgers will be without one of those returnees against LSU. Sophomore LB T.J. Edwards is ‘out’ with a foot injury sustained in mid-August. Edwards was UW’s leading tackler in ’15 with 84 stops, including 6.5 tackles behind the line. His presence will be missed going up against Fournette. Senior OLB Vince Biegel was a second-team All Big Ten selection in ’15 when he recorded 66 tackles, eight sacks, six tackles behind the line and eight QB hurries. Chryst replaced Aranda with Justin Wilcox, who has spent the last decade in the DC role at Boise State, Tennessee, Washington and USC.
-- Chryst has tabbed senior Bart Houston as his starting QB. Houston completed 27-of-47 passes (57.4%) for 281 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio last season. He had seen limited action in eight games as a freshman and sophomore. The Badgers lost star WR Alex Erickson, but four of the top five pass catchers return.
-- Wisconsin’s offense took a major hit last week when senior OG Dan Voltz decided to retire due to lingering knee injuries. Voltz was a preseason All-American candidate with 28 career starts under his belt. As usual, though, the o-line should be solid and the Badgers have a plethora of talent in the backfield. The hope is that senior Corey Clement can return to his ’14 form after an injury-plagued ’15 campaign. Clement rushed for nearly 1,000 yards as a sophomore and combined for 1,496 rushing yards with a 7.0 YPC average in his first two seasons at UW. Dare Ogunbowale rushed for a team-best 819 yards and seven TDs in ’15, averaging 4.2 YPC. He also had 36 catches for 299 yards and one TD.
-- As of Thursday, most books had LSU listed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 44.5 points. The Badgers were +350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350). For first-half bets, the Tigers were favored by 6.5 points with a 22.5-point total.
**North Carolina vs. Georgia**
-- This SEC/ACC showdown will take place at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, with ESPN providing television coverage at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.
-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Georgia installed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56.5 points. The Tar Heels were available for a +125 return if they win outright. UGA was favored by one-half point for first-half wagers, while the total was at 28.5.
-- The Kirby Smart Era in Athens has arrived. Smart wisely rejected overtures from other schools during his nine-year reign as DC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He also turned down former UGA head coach Mark Richt’s offer to become DC at his alma mater several years ago. The Bainbridge, Georgia product had his eyes on Richt’s job and figured it was only a matter of time before the gig became open. When it did just one day after UGA beat arch-rival Ga. Tech in its regular-season finale, Smart was the lone candidate to replace Richt.
-- On Thursday morning, Smart announced that senior QB Greyson Lambert will get the starting nod vs. UNC. Lambert, a transfer from Virginia, connected on 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,959 yards with a 12/2 TD-INT ratio last year. Those numbers actually look solid on paper, but Smart’s decision isn’t going over well in the Bulldog Nation, which is thirsty to see five-star true freshman Jacob Eason take over. Lambert was benched twice last year after poor performances against Alabama and Missouri. Don’t be surprised if we see Eason on Saturday, especially if Lambert struggles in the first half.
-- Georgia has two of the nation’s premier RBs, but both are coming off of injuries. Nick Chubb was a leading Heisman Trophy candidate before sustaining a nasty knee injury in a loss at Tennessee. In only five games, Chubb had already rushed for 747 yards and seven TDs while averaging an eye-opening 8.1 YPC. He has reportedly looked healthy during camp and is set to start. In fact, Smart told the media this week that “he won’t be on a pitch count.” When Chubb went down, Sony Michel took center stage and rushed for 1,161 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. However, Michel is ‘questionable’ against the Tar Heels after breaking his arm in July.
-- UGA’s defense lost its top four tacklers from a salty unit that allowed only 16.9 PPG in ’15. Junior safety Dominick Sanders is the best of those defenders who return. Sanders was a second-team All-SEC selection last season when he recorded 48 tackles, six interceptions, six passes broken up, four tackles behind the line, one sack and one QB hurry.
-- Former DC Jeremy Pruitt took the same job vacated by Smart at Alabama. Pruitt is being replaced by long-time NFL coordinator Mel Tucker, who has served as DC for the Browns, Jaguars and Bears in the past. The new OC is Jim Chaney, who held the same position at Pittsburgh last season and has had previous SEC stints at Arkansas (’13-14) and Tennessee (’09-12).
-- North Carolina is off its best season in decades and brings high hopes into the 2016 campaign. UNC finished 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS in ’15. After dropping its season opener by beating itself with red-zone turnovers in a 17-13 loss to South Carolina, UNC ripped off 11 consecutive wins for its first double-digit win total since Mack Brown’s last season in Chapel Hill in 1997. It was the first 11-win season since 1980, the year the Tar Heels last won an ACC title.
-- With an 11-1 record, Larry Fedora’s fourth UNC team made the school’s first appearance at the ACC Championship Game. The Tar Heels lost a 45-37 decision to eventual runner-up Clemson, and then they subsequently came up on the short end of a 49-38 shootout against Baylor at the Russell Athletic Bowl.
-- North Carolina brings back 14 total starters, seven on each side of the ball. QB Marquise Williams has moved on after throwing for 3,072 yards with a 24/10 TD-INT ratio as a senior. Williams was a dual-threat signal caller who also rushed for 948 yards and 13 TDs. He will be sorely missed, but there is a ton of optimism about new starter Mitch Trubisky, a junior who has seen spot duty in 21 games as a freshman and a sophomore. In ’15, Trubisky completed 40-of-47 passes (85.1%) for 555 yards and six TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 101 yards and three TDs with a 6.3 YPC average.
-- Trubisky gets back the program’s top two wideouts in Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer. Hollins had 30 receptions for 745 yards and eight TDs last year. Meanwhile, Switzer hauled in 55 catches for 697 yards and six TDs. Switzer was a third-team All-ACC pick as a WR in ’15. As a freshman in ’13, he earned first-team All-American honors as a punt returner when he set at NCAA record with five TDs. He added two more punt returns for scores in ’15. For his career, Switzer has produced 22 TDs and 4,941 all-purpose yards.
-- UNC has a pair of excellent RBs in junior Elijah Hood and senior T.J. Logan. Hood rushed for 1,463 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 6.7 YPC in ’15. Logan rushed for 400 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. Hood garnered first-team All-ACC honors last season.
-- Fedora enters his fifth season in Chapel Hill with a 32-20 combined record. He has led UNC to three straight bowl appearances after his first squad, one that finished 8-4, couldn’t go to the postseason due to NCAA sanctions from the Butch Davis Era. The wisest move Fedora has made since being hired in 2012 was pulling Gene Chizik away from CBS Sports to be his DC last year. The Tar Heels gave up 39.0 PPG in ’14, but they were salty on that side of the ball in the first season under Chizik, surrendering only 24.5 PPG. Chizik gets his leading tackler back in junior safety Donnie Miles, who had 128 tackles in ’15. Senior CB Desmond Lawrence also returns after earning second-team All-ACC honors. Lawrence had 59 tackles, two interceptions and 14 passes broken up in ’15.
**Alabama vs. Southern California**
-- For the first time in 31 years, these storied programs will collide Saturday night at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. As of Thursday, most spots had Alabama listed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 53. Gamblers had the chance to back the Trojans to win outright for a gorgeous +375 return. For first-half action, the Crimson Tide was favored by 6.5 (with a -120 price) or seven points with a total of 27.
-- Alabama won its fourth national title on Nick Saban’s watch by beating Clemson 45-40 as a 6.5-point favorite in last year’s finals of the College Football Playoff. The defending champs bring back six starters on offense and five on defense. They lost their starting QB (Jake Coker), the school’s all-time leading rusher (Derrick Henry) and four of the top five tacklers from a defense that gave up just 15.1 PPG.
-- Saban hasn’t announced a starting QB yet, but he said it will be either junior Cooper Bateman or redshirt freshman Blake Barnett. Bateman completed 37-of-52 passes (71.2%) for 291 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions last year.
-- Alabama has one of the top 2-3 groups of WRs in the country. Sophomore Calvin Ridley was nasty as a true freshman in ’15, bringing down 89 receptions for 1,045 yards and seven TDs. ArDarius Stewart had 63 catches for 700 yards and four TDs last year. O.J. Howard might be the nation’s best TE. He had a monster game against Clemson and finished the season with 38 catches for 602 yards and a pair of TDs.
-- Sophomore RB Damien Harris, a former five-star recruit, will split carries with another sophomore, Bo Scarbrough. Both are extremely talented but inexperienced. They’ll run behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines.
-- This is the fifth straight season Alabama has opened the year against a non-conference program on a neutral site. The Crimson Tide has won all four previous games against Michigan (41-14), Virginia Tech (35-10), West Virginia (33-23) and Wisconsin (35-17), producing a 3-1 spread record.
-- Alabama will be without a pair of key players due to suspensions. Senior starting OG Alphonse Taylor (17 career starts) won’t dress versus USC, nor will back-up CB Tony Brown, who had 16 tackles and two passes broken up in ’15.
-- Southern Cal finished a turbulent ’15 campaign with an 8-6 SU record and a 6-8 ATS mark. Steve Sarkisian was fired in early October after showing up to a Sunday practice smelling like alcohol. Clay Helton took over on an interim basis and was given the full-time gig in January. Four of the Trojans’ six setbacks came by double-digit margins, including a 41-22 loss at Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
-- USC returns 10 starters on offense and five on defense. The only offensive starter who isn’t back is QB Cody Kessler, who had a 29/7 TD-INT ratio in ’15. Max Browne, a true junior who was a five-star recruit, is set to take over the starting duties under center. Browne has seen limited playing time in nine games. He completed 8-of-12 throws for 113 yards in ’15.
-- Browne will operate behind an offensive line that many, including Phil Steele, consider to be the best in the country. The Trojans have their top two RBs back in the fold. Ronald Jones rushed for a team-best 987 yards and eight TDs (6.5 YPC) last season, while Justin Davis had 902 rushing yards and seven TDs (5.3 YPC).
-- Browne has USC’s top eight pass catchers back, including second-team All-American JuJu Smith, who had 89 receptions for 1,454 yards and 10 TDs in ’15.
-- USC is in its first double-digit underdog situation since November of 2011 when it went to Eugene and shocked Oregon by a 38-35 count as a 15-point puppy.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
