Bill Biles
Northwestern vs. Penn State
Free Pick Penn State -10
Penn State is looking like a real threat in the Big 10. Now that they are bowl eligible and can play in the Big 10 Championship it is time to take them seriously. Penn State has a very talented QB in Hackenburg and a defense that is always tough to score on. Look for Penn State to improve to 5-0 and get a win in their Big 10 opener.
Northwestern vs. Penn State
Free Pick Penn State -10
Penn State is looking like a real threat in the Big 10. Now that they are bowl eligible and can play in the Big 10 Championship it is time to take them seriously. Penn State has a very talented QB in Hackenburg and a defense that is always tough to score on. Look for Penn State to improve to 5-0 and get a win in their Big 10 opener.
Alex Smart
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Bonus Play OVER the Total 1/2 unit selection
Going over the Total here might seem like a square play and admittedly the number is a little higher than I had hoped for, but believe me when I say, this number is still very beatable. With two very efficient offensive units going head to head , and explosive scorefest must be expected. The Arkansas offense is the third most efficient in the nation with the second highest conversion rate. The Hogs love to run the ball and they do it well behind a an array of talent. The Razorbacks own the No. 1 most efficient rushing offense and run it aggressively and at a high tempo. Despite of A&Ms upgraded D, Im betting the Hogs will run wild. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is a fast paced attack ( ranked 9th in the nation for pace) and are extremely efficient and rank 4th in rush and 5th passing and no 4 in red zone conversion ratio. Needless to say, if in gear the Aggies will slice and dice the Razorbacks 93 ranked defense. Both teams have offensive weapons and both will do what they do best, and that is score. Everything points to a high scoring affair that might see the scoreboard break down from over use.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Bonus Play OVER the Total 1/2 unit selection
Going over the Total here might seem like a square play and admittedly the number is a little higher than I had hoped for, but believe me when I say, this number is still very beatable. With two very efficient offensive units going head to head , and explosive scorefest must be expected. The Arkansas offense is the third most efficient in the nation with the second highest conversion rate. The Hogs love to run the ball and they do it well behind a an array of talent. The Razorbacks own the No. 1 most efficient rushing offense and run it aggressively and at a high tempo. Despite of A&Ms upgraded D, Im betting the Hogs will run wild. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is a fast paced attack ( ranked 9th in the nation for pace) and are extremely efficient and rank 4th in rush and 5th passing and no 4 in red zone conversion ratio. Needless to say, if in gear the Aggies will slice and dice the Razorbacks 93 ranked defense. Both teams have offensive weapons and both will do what they do best, and that is score. Everything points to a high scoring affair that might see the scoreboard break down from over use.
Doug Upstone
Colorado vs. California
Bonus Play California
Play On home favorites like California, an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards a game versus an opponent like Colorado, a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG allowed), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Defensive teams like the Buffaloes have not enjoyed much success slowing down opposing teams like the Bears in this situation, losing by an average of 27.1 PPG. This college football system is a stellar 27-6, 81.6 percent.
Colorado vs. California
Bonus Play California
Play On home favorites like California, an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards a game versus an opponent like Colorado, a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG allowed), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Defensive teams like the Buffaloes have not enjoyed much success slowing down opposing teams like the Bears in this situation, losing by an average of 27.1 PPG. This college football system is a stellar 27-6, 81.6 percent.
Carolina Sports
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Bonus Play 177 Tennessee +17.5
Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O-U) plays at No. 22 Georgia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O-U) and it can be seen on ESPN. The Vols are a young team that will be very good by the end of the year as they have as many as 22 Freshman this year. They are struggling offensively this year but do have some emerging talent on that side of the ball. The Vols are only avg 4.6-ypp vs teams that combine to allow 4.7-ypp. The defense is playing well as they are only allowing 5.0-ypp vs teams that combine to avg 5.5-ypp. They will need a big game from the defense as Georgia is an offensive machine.
The Bulldogs bounced back big last week with a 66-0 win over hapless Troy after losing at South Carolina in their second game. Georgia is averaging 48.7-ppg and 7.5-ypp. The running game led by Todd Gurley is avg 7.7-ypr! That is incredible! The Vols will have their hands full stopping the run but that is their specialty so far this year as they have only allowed 3.9-ypr.
The money on this game is pretty much split as 52% are on the Dogs in this one. Tennessee is 20-5 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Our ratings have Georgia -21 in this one and compuer is calling for a 22-point Georgia win. We are going against the computer and our ratings as Richt is 10-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of Georgia. Georgia wins but the Vols get the cover.
Georgia 37 Tennessee 24
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Bonus Play 177 Tennessee +17.5
Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O-U) plays at No. 22 Georgia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O-U) and it can be seen on ESPN. The Vols are a young team that will be very good by the end of the year as they have as many as 22 Freshman this year. They are struggling offensively this year but do have some emerging talent on that side of the ball. The Vols are only avg 4.6-ypp vs teams that combine to allow 4.7-ypp. The defense is playing well as they are only allowing 5.0-ypp vs teams that combine to avg 5.5-ypp. They will need a big game from the defense as Georgia is an offensive machine.
The Bulldogs bounced back big last week with a 66-0 win over hapless Troy after losing at South Carolina in their second game. Georgia is averaging 48.7-ppg and 7.5-ypp. The running game led by Todd Gurley is avg 7.7-ypr! That is incredible! The Vols will have their hands full stopping the run but that is their specialty so far this year as they have only allowed 3.9-ypr.
The money on this game is pretty much split as 52% are on the Dogs in this one. Tennessee is 20-5 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Our ratings have Georgia -21 in this one and compuer is calling for a 22-point Georgia win. We are going against the computer and our ratings as Richt is 10-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of Georgia. Georgia wins but the Vols get the cover.
Georgia 37 Tennessee 24
Michael Alexander
Northwestern vs. Penn State
1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick Penn State
Penn State comes into this one with a tough run defense as they all a total of 175 yards per game. They have had success versus Northwestern as well as they had scored more than 32 points in their last 6 games against them. Northwestern is on a 1-10 ATS run. They did snap a 6-game slide versus Western Illinois, but had a 376-283 yard deficit.
Northwestern vs. Penn State
1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick Penn State
Penn State comes into this one with a tough run defense as they all a total of 175 yards per game. They have had success versus Northwestern as well as they had scored more than 32 points in their last 6 games against them. Northwestern is on a 1-10 ATS run. They did snap a 6-game slide versus Western Illinois, but had a 376-283 yard deficit.
Marc Lawrence
Stanford vs. Washington
Bonus Play Take: (174) WASHINGTON
Reason: Washington is 4-0 but a home dog to a run-oriented Stanford squad. The Stanford Cardinal already have one loss in the Pac-12 and can't afford another. They play their first road game of the year here. The Cardinal is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is the 4th straight home game for Washington and the Huskies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. New coach Chris Petersen has concentrated on running the ball (239.3 YPG, ranked 27th). Sophomore quarterback Cyler Miles has been steady (153 rating) in the last three games, so grab the home dog. Play (174) WASHINGTON.
Stanford vs. Washington
Bonus Play Take: (174) WASHINGTON
Reason: Washington is 4-0 but a home dog to a run-oriented Stanford squad. The Stanford Cardinal already have one loss in the Pac-12 and can't afford another. They play their first road game of the year here. The Cardinal is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is the 4th straight home game for Washington and the Huskies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. New coach Chris Petersen has concentrated on running the ball (239.3 YPG, ranked 27th). Sophomore quarterback Cyler Miles has been steady (153 rating) in the last three games, so grab the home dog. Play (174) WASHINGTON.
Andre Ramirez
North Carolina vs. Clemson
TODAY'S FREE PREMIUM WINNER: CLEMSON -14
Last week was the Tar Heels' first real test of the new season, and they took a bad loss. They turned a tight game after the first quarter into a rout heading into the fourth by getting outscored 42-14 in the middle two quarters of play. North Carolina’s offense was at its prime, putting up 41 points.The problem is their defense was completely shredded by Pirates quarterback Shane Carden, who ended the day with 438 passing yards, and four touchdown throws. In their first two games, the Tar Heels gave up 29 points to Division IAA Liberty and 27 points to San Diego State in a tight four-point victory as 14.5-point home favorites. North Carolina is ranked 21st in the nation in scoring with an average of 42.7 points a game, and quarterback Marquise Williams has thrown for 551 yards while adding another 152 yards on the ground. However, it’s hard to see this defense keeping Clemson from scoring many points this Saturday night. The Tigers have to be kicking themselves after Saturday’s near miss, but there are plenty of positive takeaways from such a heartbreaking loss. Freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson took another step forward with 266 yards passing while completing 19 of 28 throws. He also ran for 30 yards and a score on 12 carries. The Tigers did an excellent job completing plays with 11 different players posting at least one reception in this game. The biggest plus had to be the Clemson defense, which kept the pressure on Seminoles backup quarterback Sean Maguire from the opening snap. This unit also held running back Karlos Williams to just 45 yards on 10 carries as Florida State attempted to fill the void created by a one-game suspension of starting quarterback Jameis Winston. The Clemson Tigers are just to much of a team for the Tar Heals.
According to my analysis, I have Clemson winning 45-10. Lay the money on Clemson minus the 14 points, and get paid.. Thank You
North Carolina vs. Clemson
TODAY'S FREE PREMIUM WINNER: CLEMSON -14
Last week was the Tar Heels' first real test of the new season, and they took a bad loss. They turned a tight game after the first quarter into a rout heading into the fourth by getting outscored 42-14 in the middle two quarters of play. North Carolina’s offense was at its prime, putting up 41 points.The problem is their defense was completely shredded by Pirates quarterback Shane Carden, who ended the day with 438 passing yards, and four touchdown throws. In their first two games, the Tar Heels gave up 29 points to Division IAA Liberty and 27 points to San Diego State in a tight four-point victory as 14.5-point home favorites. North Carolina is ranked 21st in the nation in scoring with an average of 42.7 points a game, and quarterback Marquise Williams has thrown for 551 yards while adding another 152 yards on the ground. However, it’s hard to see this defense keeping Clemson from scoring many points this Saturday night. The Tigers have to be kicking themselves after Saturday’s near miss, but there are plenty of positive takeaways from such a heartbreaking loss. Freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson took another step forward with 266 yards passing while completing 19 of 28 throws. He also ran for 30 yards and a score on 12 carries. The Tigers did an excellent job completing plays with 11 different players posting at least one reception in this game. The biggest plus had to be the Clemson defense, which kept the pressure on Seminoles backup quarterback Sean Maguire from the opening snap. This unit also held running back Karlos Williams to just 45 yards on 10 carries as Florida State attempted to fill the void created by a one-game suspension of starting quarterback Jameis Winston. The Clemson Tigers are just to much of a team for the Tar Heals.
According to my analysis, I have Clemson winning 45-10. Lay the money on Clemson minus the 14 points, and get paid.. Thank You
Kyle Hunter
Duke vs. Miami (Fla)
*3 Star CFB Free Pick* Duke
The Miami Hurricanes have some star players on their team, but they also have some major weaknesses. Miami has a freshman quarterback that has shown he is careless with the football. Those interceptions and fumbles are going to hurt in a close game. Miami's defense was torched last week by a one-dimensional Nebraska Cornhuskers offense. Duke's offense hasn't lost a bit since last year when they rolled up 543 yards against Miami in a 48-30 win. David Cutcliffe is a very underrated coach, and I'd take him any day over Al Golden who doesn't seem to get his teams ready for big games. Duke has a veteran team that takes care of the ball. The Blue Devils have a real shot to win this game outright, so I definitely like them at plus 7. Take Duke.
Duke vs. Miami (Fla)
*3 Star CFB Free Pick* Duke
The Miami Hurricanes have some star players on their team, but they also have some major weaknesses. Miami has a freshman quarterback that has shown he is careless with the football. Those interceptions and fumbles are going to hurt in a close game. Miami's defense was torched last week by a one-dimensional Nebraska Cornhuskers offense. Duke's offense hasn't lost a bit since last year when they rolled up 543 yards against Miami in a 48-30 win. David Cutcliffe is a very underrated coach, and I'd take him any day over Al Golden who doesn't seem to get his teams ready for big games. Duke has a veteran team that takes care of the ball. The Blue Devils have a real shot to win this game outright, so I definitely like them at plus 7. Take Duke.
Sam Martin
Iowa at Purdue 12:00PM
5* Purdue
Reason: 5* Play on Purdue. Not sure if the Boilermakers can win this game outright, but we do like their chances of staying close to Iowa here and at least having a chance at an outright win. Far too many points for Iowa to be laying here, especially considering the way they tend to play close games no matter who they face. Iowa has been listed as a double-digit favorite three times already this year - losing once outright and winning by just 8 and 4 points the other two games.
Hawkeyes did pull off an upset win last week against Pittsburgh (as a 6.5-point underdog), but if anything that only sets up a letdown spot this week against Purdue. Boilermakers and Hawkeyes are very similar in that their offenses and defenses don't really do anything great, but aren't horrible either. Even matchup with this game being played at Purdue and we expect the parity on these rosters to translate into an even match on the field. Points a premium as this one is decided by less than a touchdown either way! 5* Play on Purdue.
Iowa at Purdue 12:00PM
5* Purdue
Reason: 5* Play on Purdue. Not sure if the Boilermakers can win this game outright, but we do like their chances of staying close to Iowa here and at least having a chance at an outright win. Far too many points for Iowa to be laying here, especially considering the way they tend to play close games no matter who they face. Iowa has been listed as a double-digit favorite three times already this year - losing once outright and winning by just 8 and 4 points the other two games.
Hawkeyes did pull off an upset win last week against Pittsburgh (as a 6.5-point underdog), but if anything that only sets up a letdown spot this week against Purdue. Boilermakers and Hawkeyes are very similar in that their offenses and defenses don't really do anything great, but aren't horrible either. Even matchup with this game being played at Purdue and we expect the parity on these rosters to translate into an even match on the field. Points a premium as this one is decided by less than a touchdown either way! 5* Play on Purdue.
Tony Stoffo
Texas State vs. Tulsa
3 Units Texas State +3 -106
Bonus Play for Saturday - Texas State at Tulsa Strong Sharp money move here as all the early smart money came pouring in on Texas State in this spot against Tulsa forcing the odds makers to make numerous adjustments on this opening number including going right thru the magic money of 4 - and as of this writing no buy back at all on the Golden Hurricanes. The Bobcats will dominate on both sides of the ball and are the very live dog here. Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Golden Hurricane are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Texas State the play here
Texas State vs. Tulsa
3 Units Texas State +3 -106
Bonus Play for Saturday - Texas State at Tulsa Strong Sharp money move here as all the early smart money came pouring in on Texas State in this spot against Tulsa forcing the odds makers to make numerous adjustments on this opening number including going right thru the magic money of 4 - and as of this writing no buy back at all on the Golden Hurricanes. The Bobcats will dominate on both sides of the ball and are the very live dog here. Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Golden Hurricane are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Texas State the play here
'SEC Rivals Clash!'
Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 3-1 ATS) and Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1 SU/ATS) square off at neutral site AT&T Stadium in Arlington Saturday afternoon. Aggies have been impressive during the undefeated start. Upending South Carolina 52-28 in the season opener the Aggies then manhandled their three non-conference foes outscoring the trio 169-19 giving the squad a nation second best 55.2 points per game on 612.5 yards/contest. Razorbacks' opened their campaign with a 45-21 loss against Auburn but rebounded nicely winning three straight non-conference games by an average 41.6 PPG. Razorbacks' offense leaning heavily on the ground game rack up 48.8 points/game on 160 passing, 324.5 rushing yards per contest. The Texas A&M run stop unit will be tested. But in the end, any short-comings will be made up by Aggies' higher-octane offense. Razorbacks' 0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS last thirteen in SEC play, 3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS away from Razorback Stadium stick with Aggies.
Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 3-1 ATS) and Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1 SU/ATS) square off at neutral site AT&T Stadium in Arlington Saturday afternoon. Aggies have been impressive during the undefeated start. Upending South Carolina 52-28 in the season opener the Aggies then manhandled their three non-conference foes outscoring the trio 169-19 giving the squad a nation second best 55.2 points per game on 612.5 yards/contest. Razorbacks' opened their campaign with a 45-21 loss against Auburn but rebounded nicely winning three straight non-conference games by an average 41.6 PPG. Razorbacks' offense leaning heavily on the ground game rack up 48.8 points/game on 160 passing, 324.5 rushing yards per contest. The Texas A&M run stop unit will be tested. But in the end, any short-comings will be made up by Aggies' higher-octane offense. Razorbacks' 0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS last thirteen in SEC play, 3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS away from Razorback Stadium stick with Aggies.
Jeff Clement
Nevada vs. San Jose State
CFB West Coast 8 Unit Play!
Nevada -5 -115
Nevada(2-1) at San Jose State(1-2): The Wolf Pack of Nevada is led by quarterback Cody Fajardo who has passed for 734 yards with 4 TD's and will look to find his favorite target receiver Jerico Richardson who has 19 receptions for 260 yards. Blake Jurich is quarterback for San Jose St. and has struggled with 4 INT's already this year. San Jose St. has lost 2 games by a combined 63 points while Nevada barely lost 35-28 to Arizona. Nevada is 4-1 ATS last 5 games and San Jose St. is 2-5 ATS last 7 games against teams with winning records. Nevada is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings. Prediction: NEV 31 SJST 23. Nevada is a 8 Unit Play!
Nevada vs. San Jose State
CFB West Coast 8 Unit Play!
Nevada -5 -115
Nevada(2-1) at San Jose State(1-2): The Wolf Pack of Nevada is led by quarterback Cody Fajardo who has passed for 734 yards with 4 TD's and will look to find his favorite target receiver Jerico Richardson who has 19 receptions for 260 yards. Blake Jurich is quarterback for San Jose St. and has struggled with 4 INT's already this year. San Jose St. has lost 2 games by a combined 63 points while Nevada barely lost 35-28 to Arizona. Nevada is 4-1 ATS last 5 games and San Jose St. is 2-5 ATS last 7 games against teams with winning records. Nevada is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings. Prediction: NEV 31 SJST 23. Nevada is a 8 Unit Play!
yes slickwitdadick, Spartan is solid, especially with his 3* plays. He's 4-0 this far in college on those. I have been following him blind the past 2 years & have done well. I know following blind isn't a great idea, but I'm that confident in Spartan. "This ad has been paid for by the friends of Spartan" lol
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday September 27, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I think it’s fair to say we know which 10 teams will be competing for the World Series. The National League has been set: the Nationals and Dodgers are division winners. The Cardinals or Pirates will win the NL Central, and the loser will be a wild card. The Giants are the other wild card. Thus, those latter three still have something to play for Saturday. In the AL, the Angels and Orioles are division winners. The Tigers or Royals will win the AL Central — most likely Detroit — and the loser will almost surely be a wild card. The other will probably be Oakland. So those latter two/three have something to play for still. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on Saturday, my final Five to Follow of the regular season. I will continue into the playoffs where applicable and when multiple games.
Yankees at Red Sox (+127, 8)
I’m not saying that Orioles reliever Evan Meek grooved a pitch to Derek Jeter in the bottom of the ninth inning in Jeter’s final game at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night, but, yeah, he did. Storybook ending for Jeter’s career, and he will not play shortstop at all in this series. He will either pinch-hit or designated hit. That’s a great call. The Red Sox fans, and I’m sure plenty of Yankee fans from the area, still get a chance to see him. Boston, meanwhile, has shut down David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Brock Holt for the rest of the way. Masahiro Tanaka finishes off his injury-shortened season for the Yankees, and he might be the face of the team going forward (sorry it’s not Alex Rodriguez, even if he plays next season). Tanaka (13-4, 2.47) made his first start since July 8 last Sunday and allowed a run over 5.1 innings to Toronto. He will be on a pitch count of about 85 for this one. Joe Kelly (5-4, 4.15) probably will be in the bullpen for Boston next year. He beat the Yankees on Sept. 2, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings. That was his first win since a trade from St. Louis.
Key trends: The Yanks are 7-3 in Tanaka’s past 10 vs. teams with a losing record. Boston is 2-7 in Kelly’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The “over/under” has gone under in Tanaka’s past five with five days of rest.
Early lean: Half the Red Sox roster is out, and Tanaka looks back to pre-injury form, so go Yanks.
Pirates at Reds (+150, 6.5)
Raise your hand if you had Pittsburgh’s Josh Harrison as the 2014 NL batting champion. Yeah, I don’t think Harrison even expected this, but the race isn’t over. Harrison, who had never played more than 104 games or hit better than .272 in three previous seasons, is at .319 entering Friday with Colorado’s Justin Morneau (.317) and teammate Andrew McCutchen (.314) still having a shot. If the Pirates win out, they are guaranteed to at worst host the wild-card game against the Giants. They still could win the NL Central. Lefty Francisco Liriano (7-10, 3.32) starts here for the Bucs. They have won his past four, and he has allowed just one earned run. By pitching Saturday, he wouldn’t be available for Wednesday’s NL wild-card game unless on three days’ rest. Liriano is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA this year vs. the Reds. Cincinnati’s Alfredo Simon (15-10, 3.34) is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA this year against Pittsburgh. Harrison has three singles in 11 at-bats off him.
Key trends: The Pirates have won four straight Liriano starts against teams below .500. The Reds are 1-5 in Simon’s past six following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 11-2 in Liriano’s past 13. However, the over is 5-2 in his past seven vs. Cincinnati.
Early lean: Pirates at -105 on runline.
Padres at Giants (-181, 7)
San Francisco’s lone motivation is to try and pass Pittsburgh for home field in that wild-card game. If those two end up tied, there is no tiebreaker game. The Pirates hold it, and they could clinch home field in the game possibly Saturday. The Giants could know their fate by the time they take the field at 4:05 ET. Already having lost outfielder Angel Pagan for the season and playoffs, now San Francisco doubts whether Michael Morse will be available, either. I don’t see how this team has enough offense to do much in the postseason. Win a wild-card game, maybe, but not a series. Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.78) made himself some free-agent money by pitching very well for San Francisco since his trade from Boston. I’ll bet the house he stays in the National League next year, maybe with the Giants. Peavy is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA this month. Padres lefty Eric Stults (8-17, 4.42) is looking to avoid being the 2014 MLB loss leader by himself. He’s currently in a three-way tie with 17. Stults is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in three starts this year against the Giants.
Key trends: San Diego is 3-8 in Stults’ past 11 on the road. The Giants have won four of their past five at home against lefties. The under is 4-1 in Stults’ past five on the road.
Early lean: Under at -110.
Royals at White Sox (+166, 8)
Kansas City had a chance to clinch its first playoff berth since 1985 on Friday, but the players can’t be celebrating too hard because there are still things to play for. If not the AL Central title, then it’s home-field advantage in the wild-card game, likely against Oakland. If any franchise deserves a home playoff game, it’s Kansas City. Royals left-hander Danny Duffy (9-11, 2.32) has missed a few starts with a minor shoulder problem but didn’t look very rusty on Sept. 22, shutting out Cleveland over six innings. Duffy has faced Chicago once and didn’t allow a run in seven innings. The Sox start lefty John Danks (10-11, 4.82), whom they would love to dump this offseason but would have to take a bad contract back. Danks is 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. the Royals. Eric Hosmer hits .438 off him in 16 at-bats.
Key trends: The Royals have won four straight against left-handers. The Sox are 0-5 in Danks’ past five at home. The under is 9-1 in Duffy’s past 10 against AL Central teams.
Early lean: Call this totally a hunch. The White Sox will honor retiring Paul Konerko, one of the best players in franchise history (and probably a future Pale Hose manager), before this game. Emotion can play a role in baseball. Take Chicago.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks (+140, 7.5)
St. Louis hit a mini-slide at the wrong time as the Cards have let the Pirates have hope in the NL Central. There could be a Game 163 between those two on Monday if they finish tied. Or depending on what happens Friday (St. Louis win, Pittsburgh loss), the Cards could clinch the division Saturday in Arizona, which will finish with the majors’ worst record and get the first pick in next summer’s draft. The Cards have ace Adam Wainwright scheduled for Sunday, and I’m sure they don’t want to have to use him. As for Saturday, it’s Lance Lynn (15-10, 2.73). The Cardinals have lost his past three, but they all have been quality starts. Arizona’s Wade Miley (8-12, 4.35) hasn’t pitched too badly over the past couple of months, but the Snakes have lost eight of his past nine outings. Mark Ellis may get a spot start here at second as Ellis is 10-for-24 with four solo homers off Miley.
Key trends: St. Louis has won seven straight against lefties. The under is 4-0 in Lynn’s past four on the road vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 11-2 in Miley’s past 13 against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: No reason that Arizona will put up much of a fight. St Louis it is and under.
by Alan Matthews
I think it’s fair to say we know which 10 teams will be competing for the World Series. The National League has been set: the Nationals and Dodgers are division winners. The Cardinals or Pirates will win the NL Central, and the loser will be a wild card. The Giants are the other wild card. Thus, those latter three still have something to play for Saturday. In the AL, the Angels and Orioles are division winners. The Tigers or Royals will win the AL Central — most likely Detroit — and the loser will almost surely be a wild card. The other will probably be Oakland. So those latter two/three have something to play for still. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on Saturday, my final Five to Follow of the regular season. I will continue into the playoffs where applicable and when multiple games.
Yankees at Red Sox (+127, 8)
I’m not saying that Orioles reliever Evan Meek grooved a pitch to Derek Jeter in the bottom of the ninth inning in Jeter’s final game at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night, but, yeah, he did. Storybook ending for Jeter’s career, and he will not play shortstop at all in this series. He will either pinch-hit or designated hit. That’s a great call. The Red Sox fans, and I’m sure plenty of Yankee fans from the area, still get a chance to see him. Boston, meanwhile, has shut down David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Brock Holt for the rest of the way. Masahiro Tanaka finishes off his injury-shortened season for the Yankees, and he might be the face of the team going forward (sorry it’s not Alex Rodriguez, even if he plays next season). Tanaka (13-4, 2.47) made his first start since July 8 last Sunday and allowed a run over 5.1 innings to Toronto. He will be on a pitch count of about 85 for this one. Joe Kelly (5-4, 4.15) probably will be in the bullpen for Boston next year. He beat the Yankees on Sept. 2, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings. That was his first win since a trade from St. Louis.
Key trends: The Yanks are 7-3 in Tanaka’s past 10 vs. teams with a losing record. Boston is 2-7 in Kelly’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The “over/under” has gone under in Tanaka’s past five with five days of rest.
Early lean: Half the Red Sox roster is out, and Tanaka looks back to pre-injury form, so go Yanks.
Pirates at Reds (+150, 6.5)
Raise your hand if you had Pittsburgh’s Josh Harrison as the 2014 NL batting champion. Yeah, I don’t think Harrison even expected this, but the race isn’t over. Harrison, who had never played more than 104 games or hit better than .272 in three previous seasons, is at .319 entering Friday with Colorado’s Justin Morneau (.317) and teammate Andrew McCutchen (.314) still having a shot. If the Pirates win out, they are guaranteed to at worst host the wild-card game against the Giants. They still could win the NL Central. Lefty Francisco Liriano (7-10, 3.32) starts here for the Bucs. They have won his past four, and he has allowed just one earned run. By pitching Saturday, he wouldn’t be available for Wednesday’s NL wild-card game unless on three days’ rest. Liriano is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA this year vs. the Reds. Cincinnati’s Alfredo Simon (15-10, 3.34) is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA this year against Pittsburgh. Harrison has three singles in 11 at-bats off him.
Key trends: The Pirates have won four straight Liriano starts against teams below .500. The Reds are 1-5 in Simon’s past six following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 11-2 in Liriano’s past 13. However, the over is 5-2 in his past seven vs. Cincinnati.
Early lean: Pirates at -105 on runline.
Padres at Giants (-181, 7)
San Francisco’s lone motivation is to try and pass Pittsburgh for home field in that wild-card game. If those two end up tied, there is no tiebreaker game. The Pirates hold it, and they could clinch home field in the game possibly Saturday. The Giants could know their fate by the time they take the field at 4:05 ET. Already having lost outfielder Angel Pagan for the season and playoffs, now San Francisco doubts whether Michael Morse will be available, either. I don’t see how this team has enough offense to do much in the postseason. Win a wild-card game, maybe, but not a series. Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.78) made himself some free-agent money by pitching very well for San Francisco since his trade from Boston. I’ll bet the house he stays in the National League next year, maybe with the Giants. Peavy is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA this month. Padres lefty Eric Stults (8-17, 4.42) is looking to avoid being the 2014 MLB loss leader by himself. He’s currently in a three-way tie with 17. Stults is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in three starts this year against the Giants.
Key trends: San Diego is 3-8 in Stults’ past 11 on the road. The Giants have won four of their past five at home against lefties. The under is 4-1 in Stults’ past five on the road.
Early lean: Under at -110.
Royals at White Sox (+166, 8)
Kansas City had a chance to clinch its first playoff berth since 1985 on Friday, but the players can’t be celebrating too hard because there are still things to play for. If not the AL Central title, then it’s home-field advantage in the wild-card game, likely against Oakland. If any franchise deserves a home playoff game, it’s Kansas City. Royals left-hander Danny Duffy (9-11, 2.32) has missed a few starts with a minor shoulder problem but didn’t look very rusty on Sept. 22, shutting out Cleveland over six innings. Duffy has faced Chicago once and didn’t allow a run in seven innings. The Sox start lefty John Danks (10-11, 4.82), whom they would love to dump this offseason but would have to take a bad contract back. Danks is 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. the Royals. Eric Hosmer hits .438 off him in 16 at-bats.
Key trends: The Royals have won four straight against left-handers. The Sox are 0-5 in Danks’ past five at home. The under is 9-1 in Duffy’s past 10 against AL Central teams.
Early lean: Call this totally a hunch. The White Sox will honor retiring Paul Konerko, one of the best players in franchise history (and probably a future Pale Hose manager), before this game. Emotion can play a role in baseball. Take Chicago.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks (+140, 7.5)
St. Louis hit a mini-slide at the wrong time as the Cards have let the Pirates have hope in the NL Central. There could be a Game 163 between those two on Monday if they finish tied. Or depending on what happens Friday (St. Louis win, Pittsburgh loss), the Cards could clinch the division Saturday in Arizona, which will finish with the majors’ worst record and get the first pick in next summer’s draft. The Cards have ace Adam Wainwright scheduled for Sunday, and I’m sure they don’t want to have to use him. As for Saturday, it’s Lance Lynn (15-10, 2.73). The Cardinals have lost his past three, but they all have been quality starts. Arizona’s Wade Miley (8-12, 4.35) hasn’t pitched too badly over the past couple of months, but the Snakes have lost eight of his past nine outings. Mark Ellis may get a spot start here at second as Ellis is 10-for-24 with four solo homers off Miley.
Key trends: St. Louis has won seven straight against lefties. The under is 4-0 in Lynn’s past four on the road vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 11-2 in Miley’s past 13 against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: No reason that Arizona will put up much of a fight. St Louis it is and under.
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take #157 TCU (-31.5) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 27)
Do not miss Doc’s Sports weekend football card, and this week it will be highlighted by our 7-Unit College Football Game of the Year on Saturday. You can purchase this game right here, right now, and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. SMU is in a total freefall this season, with their coach and quarterback gone and teams are pretty much just naming their score against them. SMU is 0-3 on the season, and all three of those games fells over today’s posted spread. TCU has already beaten two teams badly this season, and their offense should have no problem scoring points in this game. We all know that TCU has a rock-solid defense, and thus you can expect a 49-10 type of score in this affair. SMU is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.
Take #157 TCU (-31.5) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 27)
Do not miss Doc’s Sports weekend football card, and this week it will be highlighted by our 7-Unit College Football Game of the Year on Saturday. You can purchase this game right here, right now, and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. SMU is in a total freefall this season, with their coach and quarterback gone and teams are pretty much just naming their score against them. SMU is 0-3 on the season, and all three of those games fells over today’s posted spread. TCU has already beaten two teams badly this season, and their offense should have no problem scoring points in this game. We all know that TCU has a rock-solid defense, and thus you can expect a 49-10 type of score in this affair. SMU is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.
