UFC 192 Betting Notebook
Event: UFC 192
Date: Saturday, October 3
Time/TV: FS1, 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue/Location: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Five Round Light Heavyweight Championship
Daniel Cormier (15-1-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0)
Line: Cormier -340, Gustafsson +260
Daniel Cormier looks to defend his Light Heavyweight belt against Alexander Gustafsson in Houston.
Daniel Cormier, one of MMA’s most recognizable names, has compiled a 15-1-0 record since joining the circuit in 2009. The former wrestler, now 36, suffered the only loss of his career earlier this year against Jon Jones at UFC 182, but he bounced back with a victory over Anthony Johnson and will be confident ahead of this matchup.
As noted, Cormier is a former wrestler, and he will use his grappling abilities to try to win this fight. Of his 16 career wins, five have come via submission, but he can also hold his own as a boxer, with six knockouts to his name.
This will be Cormier’s first title defense of the Light Heavyweight belt, as he previously fought in the Heavyweight division. His opponent, Alexander Gustafsson, is a more experienced MMA fighter, having participated in 19 fights, despite being eight years younger than Cormier. He made his debut in 2007 and won his first nine fights, before losing to Phil Davis in 2010.
His other two career losses have come against the aforementioned Jones and Johnson, two immensely talented fighters. Gustafsson has the height advantage in this matchup, and will turn to punching in his attempt to defeat Cormier.
Statistically, Cormier has averaged 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes at a rate of 41.51 percent. He has only averaged 0.46 submissions attempted per 15 minutes, but he does defend takedowns at a solid clip of nearly 78 percent.
In terms of punching, Cormier lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48.39 percent. He also defends significant strikes at a rate of 64.44 percent and absorbs just 1.71 significant strikes per minute. If Cormier is to win this fight, a knockout would be rather surprising, and a victory via decision seems more likely.
Gustafsson is statistically similar to Cormier in terms of grappling, having averaged 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes at a rate of 40 percent. He defends takedowns at an incredible clip of 86.67 percent, and also averages 0.81 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
He lands more significant strikes per minute than his opponent at 4.06, but his accuracy of 37.33 percent is far worse. He also absorbs a much higher amount of significant strikes per minute at 3.38, and defends significant strikes at a pedestrian level of 47.73 percent. The Swede will be the underdog in this fight, but he is more than capable of pulling off the upset.
Five Round Light Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Bader (19-4-0) vs. Rashad Evans (19-3-1)
Line: Bader +135, Evans -165
A confident Ryan Bader takes on former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans in Houston.
Ryan Bader, a veteran of the MMA circuit, boasts a career 19-4-0 record. He made his debut in 2007 after winning Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter, and racked up 12 consecutive defeats before suffering his first loss. The 32-year-old Reno native suffered four defeats and three losses after his unbeaten start, but he has returned to his winning ways, emerging victorious in each of his past four fights dating back to December of 2013.
Half of Bader’s career victories have come via decision, but he is more than capable of defeating an opponent by knockout or submission, as he has done six and four times, respectively. Bader is taller and younger than his opponent, Rashad Evans, who has not fought competitively since November of 2013 due to various injuries, namely a torn ACL in early 2014.
Before his injury, he had won two consecutive fights immediately after losing two straight fights for the first time in his career, and will look to continue his winning ways after a long layoff. Of his three defeats, two have come via decision, and he is incredibly difficult to fight against. Bader will be hoping that rust is a factor, and that the soon-to-be 36-year-old Evans can’t keep up with him in the octagon.
Bader has averaged 3.59 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of nearly 44 percent. He defends takedown well at a 73.91 percent rate, but is not known for attempting submissions, which he has done just 0.45 times per 15 minutes.
Bader lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 40.61 percent, but more impressive is his strike defense. He absorbs a meager 1.42 significant strikes per minute, and defends such strikes at a high rate of 71.89 percent. He is a very difficult opponent to knockout given these strengths.
Evans is a statistically similar fighter, and has averaged 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes at a rate of 48 percent throughout his career. He has actually yet to make a submission attempt in his career, but defends takedowns well at a 66.67 percent clip.
His punching is a bit worse than that of Bader, and he averages 2.13 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 38.81 percent. He absorbs 2.19 significant strikes per minute, and defends at a rate of 64.54 percent. The stats may favor Bader, but Evans is a former champion for a reason, and should not be underestimated.
Other UFC 192 Odds
Welterweight Bout:
Johny Hendricks
Tyron Woodley
Heavyweight Bout:
Shawn Jordan
Ruslan Magomedov
Women's Bantamweight Bout:
Jessica Eye
Julianna Peña
Flyweight Bout:
Joseph Benavidez
Ali Bagautinov
Featherweight Bout:
Yair Rodríguez
Dan Hooker
Welterweight Bout:
Alan Jouban
Albert Tumenov
Women's Strawweight Bout:
Rose Namajunas
Angela Hill
Lightweight Bout:
Islam Makhachev
Adriano Martins
Flyweight Bout:
Chris Cariaso
Sergio Pettis
Heavyweight Bout:
Derrick Lewis
Viktor Pešta
Lightweight Bout:
Francisco Trevino
Sage Northcutt
