StatSystems Sports Week #4 NCAAF Report, Saturday 9/20/14
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
______________________________________
***** NCAA College Football Information - Week #4 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________________________________
NCAACF Betting News and Notes - Week #4
Our powerful database here at StatSystemsSports.net tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most College Football teams, especially if they’re playing off their first loss of the season. From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four against the spread results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980.
•Bad Homers
Teams playing at home in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 105-112-3 against the spread overall mark since 1980, including an ‘upside-down’ 10-1 ATS mark last season. Home teams in that role this week include: Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Virginia Tech and Wyoming – with Kentucky, Louisiana-Monroe and USC on deck next week. If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season they dip to 10-20-2 ATS (Illinois and New Mexico State). To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that allows less than 30 PPG on the season, these hosts sink to 5-18-2 ATS. Illinois -14 at Memorial Stadium versus Texas State... finds itself in this agonizing role this week.
•Good Visitors
Teams playing away in this role somehow find point-spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 105-81-3 versus the spread dating back to 1980 (56.4%), including a 4-1-1 mark in 2013. This week finds Central Michigan, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland and Rutgers taking to the road after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. (Note: Nevada, Tennessee and Texas Tech will all journey out in this role next week.) When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 96-60-2-1 ATS in Game Four (61.5%), with all of the above teams, except Rutgers this week and Nevada next week, in this role. And if these teams are off a spread loss and are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss, they improve to 30-11 ATS, including 18-4 ATS if they’re placed in the underdog role. Look for Central Michigan +3.5 versus Kansas in Lawrence... barking in this desirable role come Saturday afternoon.
Inside The Stats
Football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game. That being said, Middle Tennessee State won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) during Week #3; won the game (50-47) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards versus Western Kentucky. Meanwhile, Colorado lost ITS last Saturday; lost the game (24-38) but out-yarded Arizona State by 100 or more yards.
With three games under the belt for most college football teams, here are the leading offensive and defensive stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of two game results. Note: No FCS stats are used.
Best Offenses Yards Per Game
•Nebraska 673
•Baylor 622
•Western Kentucky 606
Worst Offenses Yards Per Game
•Wake Forest 163
•Eastern Michigan 171
•SMU 171
Best Defenses Yards Per Game
•LSU 206
•Baylor 231
•Stanford 249
Worst Defenses Yards Per Game
•UNLV 702
•Bowling Green 641
•Fresno State 600
Incredible Stat of the Week
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 22-4 against the spread versus excellent rushing teams (84.6%) averaging more than 5.25 rushing yards per carry, and have recorded an outstanding 15-3 ATS record versus incredible offensive teams scoring 37 or more points per game dating back to 1992. Kirk Ferentz’s squad continues to play to the level of their opposition, while teams playing away in Game Four following their first loss of the season suggests that Iowa will be a ‘Good Visitor’ to the Steel City. Our database also reminds us that Iowa is 4-2 SU in their last six road openers and that Ferentz is 12-4-1 ATS in his career (75.0) in games off a SU favorite loss, including 6-1 SU and ATS before Game Eight of the season.
"Add the Panthers’ 1-7 ATS mark as non-conference favorites of less than 7 points to the mix, as well as their 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS record versus a Big 10 foe off a SU and ATS loss, and you can see why this will be a trek worth taking for Captain Kirk and company!"
Awesome Angle Of The Week
While much has been made of Texas A&M sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill's play, true freshman Myles Garrett is making a name for himself on the other side of the ball. Looking to open 4-0 for the first time in eight seasons, the sixth-ranked Aggies take on a winless SMU team that will debut a new coach Saturday at Ford Stadium. Texas A&M climbed one spot in this week's AP poll following a 38-10 rout of Rice last Saturday. Hill threw for 300 yards and four more touchdowns, giving him 11 without an interception in his first season replacing Johnny Manziel under center.
The Aggies' 163 points are their most through three games since scoring 184 in 1917. They managed just seven in the opening quarter against the Owls before breaking out. With 1,094 passing yards, Hill is the first Aggies quarterback to top 1,000 in the first three games. Texas A&M hasn't won its first four since 2006. Aside from Hill, Garrett also appears to be a star in the making. He's already tied the school record for sacks by a freshman with 5 1/2 and has 15 tackles, including 6 1/2 for a loss. The Aggies have recorded nine sacks after finishing near the bottom of the conference with 21 last year. Garrett leads the SEC in that category after getting 2 1/2 last week.
Garrett will try to wreak havoc on SMU which is 0-12-1 in the series dating to 1984. The Aggies have taken the last five matchups, including the past four by an average of 41.0 points, after a 42-13 win last September 21[SUP]st[/SUP], behind 581 yards of total offense. SMU could come out with a chip on its shoulder in its first game following the departure of coach June Jones, who stepped down last week due to personal reasons. Defensive coordinator Tom Mason will fill in for the remainder of the year.
The Mustangs have been obliterated in their first two games, falling 45-0 at then-No. 10 Baylor and 43-6 at North Texas on September 6th -- Jones resigned two days later. Neal Burcham completed 12 of 22 passes with two interceptions before giving way to redshirt freshman Kolney Cassel, who was 11 of 21 with a 33-yard touchdown pass as time expired. SMU, which avoided getting shut out in consecutive games for the first time since 1964, has been outgained 927-341 through two games. The Mustangs have given up 506 yards on the ground while rushing for minus-16.
Texas A&M, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, has put up 41.6 points per game in winning 10 straight road contests against unranked opponents. SMU has been limited to an average of 9.8 during a five-game losing streak against Top 25 foes, and carries an 0-8-1 ATS ledger in Game Three of the season and are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus the SEC. Series history also suggests we mine with the Aggies (4-0 ATS last four).
With all the system parameters met our 'Awesome Angle Of The Week' calls for a Play On the Texas A&M Aggies: Play On - Road favorites of 14.5 or more points after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. ATS W-L Record Since 1992: 23-3, 88.5%, +19.7 units. (Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-0)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 25.4
The average score in these games was: Team 46.7, Opponent 12.8 (Average point differential = +33.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (46.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
________________________________________________
Bad Company - Week #4
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
Three weeks into the 2014 NCAA College Football season and there are several teams that have shown they are national championship contenders and others that are just trying to stay competitive. A handful of clubs are the “sacrificial lamb” as they are receiving many points and hope to cover to help out pointspread backers. This week, we’ll take a look at five teams that are huge underdogs and look to hang around with superior foes.
•Troy (+41) at Georgia – 12:00 PM EST
The Trojans finished last season at 6-6, so this isn’t a team with a history of losing. However, Troy is 0-3 out of the gate, capped off by an embarrassing 38-35 defeat to Abilene Christian last week as 11-point home favorites. Troy blew a 21-7 lead in that setback to an FCS school, while allowing Abilene nearly 500 yards of offense. Maybe it was a sign of a bad season for Troy after it was routed in the season opener at UAB, 48-10, as the Blazers won just two games last season. Troy normally schedules SEC schools at least once a year (or SEC schools schedule the Trojans) as last season, Troy failed to cover in blowout losses at Mississippi State (62-7) and Mississippi (51-21). Georgia is coming off last week’s loss at South Carolina, while hosting Tennessee next week, so the Bulldogs will try to be on cruise control this Saturday. UGA is 0-3 ATS in its last three home games against non-conference foes, failing to cover against Buffalo, FAU, and North Texas.
•Eastern Michigan (+45) at Michigan State – 12:00 PM EST
This is plenty of points of swallow if you back the Spartans, as Michigan State is taking the field for the first time since getting blown out at Oregon two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed 46 points to the Ducks, as MSU hadn’t given up more than 28 points in any game during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. However, backing the Spartans may be a tough proposition this week as they own a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 at Spartan Stadium as a home favorite. Eastern Michigan squeezed past Morgan State in its opener before getting routed at Florida as 40 ½-point underdogs, 65-0. The Eagles managed a cover as 20 ½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 17-3 setback at Old Dominion, while limiting the Monarchs to 187 yards passing. EMU owns a 4-9 ATS record in its past 13 games in the road underdog role since 2012, which includes a 23-7 loss in East Lansing as 31 ½-point ‘dogs in 2012.
•SMU (+33 ½) vs. Texas A&M – 3:30 PM EST
The Mustangs have turned in a pair of ugly efforts in losses to Baylor and North Texas in the first two games of the season. Head coach June Jones resigned days after the 43-6 drubbing at North Texas, as the Mustangs have been outscored 88-6 through the 0-2 start. Now, SMU plays its home opener against a Texas A&M squad that has put up a whopping 163 points in three victories over South Carolina, Lamar, and Rice. For what it’s worth, the Mustangs have covered five of their past seven games as a home underdog since 2012. However, SMU has lost three straight meetings to Texas A&M in blowout fashion (46-14 in 2011, 48-3 in 2012, and 42-13 in 2013), as the Aggies easily cashed each time. The Aggies failed to cover in three opportunities as a road favorite last season, while going 0-3 ATS under Kevin Sumlin on the road off a home victory.
•Georgia State (+34 ½) at Washington – 6:00 PM EST
It was a long first season for Georgia State in 2013, moving from the FCS level to the FBS. The Panthers compiled an 0-12 record last season, but found a way to cover in seven of nine lined games. This season, the Panthers were actually listed as favorites in its first two contests against Abilene Christian and New Mexico State, but failed to cash. Georgia State staved off Abilene in the opener, 38-37, while losing a three-point decision to New Mexico State. However, the Panthers grabbed a pointspread win in a 48-38 home loss to Air Force as 12-point ‘dogs. Now, Georgia State hits the road for the first time to take on a Washington club that finally covered after ATS losses to Hawaii and Eastern Washington. The Huskies crushed Illinois last Saturday, 44-19 as 13-point favorites, while jumping out to a 35-5 lead in the second quarter. Washington may be in a look-ahead spot here, hosting Stanford next week in the Pac-12 opener. In 2013, the Huskies posted a 1-4 ATS record following an ATS win, so keep an eye on Washington winning and potentially not covering.
•Miami-Ohio (+28) at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM EST
The Redhawks were part of this feature last week as they managed to hang with Michigan at the Big House as 31-point underdogs. The Wolverines eventually cruised to victory, but Miami covered in a 34-10 defeat after trailing 17-10 midway through the third quarter. Miami has lost 15 straight games since the start of 2013, but they have cashed twice as heavy ‘dogs this season, including the opener at Marshall. Does Miami keep it up this week with a battle against cross-state rival Cincinnati? The Bearcats blanked the Redhawks last season, 14-0, as Miami easily covered as 24 ½-point underdogs. Cincinnati jumped out to a 34-0 second quarter lead in its opener last Friday against Toledo, but the Rockets rallied back to cut the deficit to seven in the fourth. The Bearcats opened things up late and covered as 9 ½-point favorites, 58-34, as UC hopes to avoid a look-ahead with a trip to Columbus next week to face Ohio State.
________________________________________________________
Quick Hits - Week #4
Systems Analyst James Vogel
#309 MASSACHUSETTS @ #310 PENN ST - 4:00 PM
With Penn State’s bowl ban lifted the Big Ten finally received some positive news in what has been a tough first three weeks of the season for the conference. While Penn State is one of two prominent programs left in the conference still without a loss, the performances this season have not exactly been complete efforts. Penn State was sloppy in the win over UCF in Ireland as they needed a miracle comeback despite dominating the statistics. The Lions also survived three turnovers in their victory over Akron while barely holding on last week with a big turnover edge. Christian Hackenberg has NFL potential as perhaps the face of the Big Ten but he has been erratic and he shows his inexperience frequently. This is an easy game for Penn State to overlook, sandwiched in between two conference games. The Minutemen have actually been very competitive in three games versus major conference foes this season. Penn State is likely the best of those opponents so far but it won’t be a huge leap in class.
#311 MARSHALL @ #312 AKRON - 2:00 PM
Regardless of the line, backing Marshall at home and fading the Herd on the road has been a winning strategy in the Doc Holliday era. Marshall has very high expectations this season and this will be one of the tougher games on the schedule. Akron does not have much of a winning track record but the Zips have a quality coaching staff and this team played Penn State pretty tough in week #2. Akron has had two weeks to prepare for this game, one of the most important home dates on the schedule this season. Marshall has failed to cover in four straight meetings with the Zips and last week’s game with Ohio was a big revenge spot for the team. Marshall is tough to trust as a road favorite and the gap between these teams might not be that significant as the MAC may be stronger than Conference USA.
#313 IOWA @ #314 PITTSBURGH - 12:00 PM
Iowa has not exactly been impressive this season but the opposition has been stronger than it sounds as Northern Iowa is always a top tier FCS team, Ball State was a very solid Mid-American Conference team last season, and Iowa State would be a more competitive team outside of the Big XII. Pittsburgh has posted some impressive scoring this season but the schedule has been even weaker. The Panthers have had to rebuild a number of key pieces on the offense and this should be the stiffest defense the team has seen this season. These teams played a memorable game in 2011 with Iowa winning 31-27 at home and while the schedules might look similar at first glance, Iowa has done more heavy lifting. This spread is elevated with Iowa’s loss last week.
#315 BALL ST @ #316 TOLEDO - 7:00 PM
The Rockets are consistently one of the top teams in the MAC despite no recent conference titles to show for it. The Rockets often go out and play tough non-conference games with eyes for a marquee upset and those games tend to take a lot out of the team. Toledo has had back-to-back big games with Missouri and Cincinnati and now they may face a tough game with Ball State, a team they have poor recent results against. Ball State beat Toledo last season as the Cardinals quietly had a very successful season. The schedule has been soft with two FCS foes for Ball State but they nearly upset Iowa on the road in the second week of the season before the FCS loss last week against Indiana State. With a bye week up next the Cardinals will pour it all into this game and could add to an incredibly impressive historical ATS track record on the road.
#317 MARYLAND @ #318 SYRACUSE - 12:30 PM
At home last season as ACC foes Syracuse beat Maryland 20-3. Maryland has covered in four of the last five trips to Syracuse but last week’s home date with West Virginia was a bigger game for the team and the Big Ten debut is up next week for the Terrapins. The narrow escape against FCS Villanova to open the season could put a little extra value on the Orange moving forward and Syracuse was dominant last week against a Central Michigan squad that had just defeated Purdue. This may not be an ideal scheduling spot for Syracuse either however as they will play Notre Dame next Saturday. Maryland rallied valiantly after falling behind early in Week #3 but the defense allowed almost 700 yards as the Terrapins lost at home despite a 4-1 edge in turnovers, not a great sign moving forward. While Maryland is new to the Big Ten the conference has been disastrous so far this season in nonconference tests against other major conferences.
#319 IDAHO @ #320 OHIO U - 12:00 PM
Idaho is not eligible for the postseason this year but this is a team that should compete well this season even if the wins don’t add up. They lost by just seven to open the season at UL-Monroe, starting a week late after the game with Florida wound up cancelled but last week lost a game they could have won. This will be the first home game of the season for Ohio and the Bobcats have faced prominent foes the past two weeks, losing at Kentucky and at Marshall. Ohio has generally been a favorable underdog performer under Frank Solich but the recent numbers as a home favorite are poor. This is a second straight MAC foe for the Vandals after last week’s home opener with Western Michigan. Idaho has not been able to stop the run this season and Ohio should get a matchup they can handle this week.
#321 C MICHIGAN @ #322 KANSAS - 3:30 PM
Even with two top receivers out of action Central Michigan delivered a huge win for the program by beating Purdue, making use of the big play. This will be the third straight games against a major conference for the Chippewas and a prominent MAC West game is on deck facing Toledo next week on the road. Injuries continue to pile up for Central Michigan and last week they were not able to keep up in a blowout loss. Kansas has to make the most of its opportunities for wins before the difficult Big XII schedule hits. The Jayhawks did win their home opener but it got close late, holding on to beat SE Missouri State. Last week Kansas lost badly at Duke with virtually no passing game. Kansas won 52-7 when these teams last met but that was in 2007 and a lot has changed for the Kansas program, struggling so far under Charlie Weis. The Jayhawks can’t overlook anyone so next week’s game vs. Texas should not enter the equation. Central Michigan was dangerous on defense against Purdue with a number of big plays and while the offense is limited this is a Kansas team that hasn’t proven it deserves favoritism over anyone. A veteran Chippewas team should respond.
#327 TULANE @ #328 DUKE 12:30 PM
One game should not dictate a season but for Tulane the opening loss against Tulsa has been devastating. It was a game where the Wave led nearly the entire way before an incredible set of breaks fell against Tulane to wind up with a double-overtime defeat. Tulane saw its lead against Georgia Tech also slip away and SE Louisiana gave Tulane a great test last week as one of the top FCS teams. Duke is coming off a game with Kansas, a more prominent matchup and next week the Blue Devils head to Miami for key ACC Coastal game. Tulane has held their own in a couple of tough games so a blowout seems unlikely. The Duke defense has been marginal against the run and Tulane has been competitive.
#329 ARMY @ #330 WAKE FOREST - 3:30 PM
The Demon Deacons appear to be headed for a challenging transition season as the offensive numbers have been brutal in the early season action despite a light schedule. Wake Forest beat Army 25-11 last season and the Deacons have covered in eight of nine meetings between these teams since 1986. Dave Clawson will get things together in Winston-Salem at some point but in this matchup of teams with new head coaches this season, Jeff Monken is in a better position to succeed right away. Army has rare depth and experience this season and the Knights might have some value coming off playing Stanford last week, playing a lot tougher than the 35-0 final suggested. This will be a second straight road game with substantial travel but Army will likely hold a strong rushing edge in this game. Wake Forest only out-gained Army by three yards last season.
#331 N CAROLINA @ #332 E CAROLINA - 3:30 PM
East Carolina has built a track record of success with a few upsets over major conference foes in recent seasons but last year’s 55-31 destruction of North Carolina in Chapel Hill was one of the program’s best performances. North Carolina had a tough start last season but rebounded to finish with a bowl win with a QB change and a soft late season schedule helping the cause. The Tar Heels have not been overly impressive in a 2-0 start, allowing a lot of points in wins over Liberty and San Diego State. Many will view the Tar Heels as a team ripe for an upset but they should be highly motivated for this matchup. East Carolina also enters this game coming off a huge game with Virginia Tech, getting a huge upset in a dramatic game, a win that tilts this line the other direction in a potential letdown spot.
#333 SAN JOSE ST @ #334 MINNESOTA - 400 PM
Quarterback Mitch Leidner had a breakout game for Minnesota last season against San Jose State but he has been banged up this season and struggled with turnovers last week. Generally a run-first option Leidner takes a lot of hits but he was successful in leading the Gophers to the postseason last year. Minnesota enters this game coming off a big non-conference test at TCU and just before an opening Big Ten game at Michigan next week. San Jose State has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a humbling loss against Auburn. While David Fales has moved on the passheavy offense has looked competent under quarterback Blake Jurich. While Minnesota figures to have a substantial edge on defense in this matchup, this could be a problematic spot for the Gophers given the scheduling. The Spartans will be ready for the rush attack this year.
#335 UTAH @ #336 MICHIGAN - 3:30 PM
The Wolverines were able to get back in the win column last week hosting Miami, OH but the week 2 shutout loss against Notre Dame will not be easy to recover from. Michigan has its Big Ten opener next week against Minnesota and while this is a marquee non-conference game, it is likely a much bigger draw for Utah heading to a historic venue. Utah is off to a dominant 2-0 start and the Utes have had two weeks to prepare for what certainly is one of the biggest games of the season for the program. Utah won at Michigan in 2008 to open the season in what was the first game in Ann Arbor for Rich Rodriguez and this is turning into a pivotal stretch for Brady Hoke in his fourth season with the Wolverines. Utah has dominated on defense this season against the run, allowing 1.4 yards per rush and while the competition upgrades this week the Utes should give Michigan problems and could force turnovers. The Pac-12 is 3-1 versus the Big-10.
#341 FLA ATLANTIC @ #342 WYOMING - 4:00 PM
The Cowboys have often pulled new coaches from the lower divisions and it would be hard to find a more successful FCS coach than Craig Bohl was at North Dakota State. While last week’s loss to Oregon took away a long winning streak for Bohl, it has been an encouraging start with an improved defense as wins over Montana and Air Force are more impressive than they might look. Florida Atlantic has had a brutal early season schedule with last week’s home opener with Tulsa being the first game the team realistically had a shot in and the Owls were impressive in the 50-21 win. The Owls are known for being strong against the pass, but this matchup may not be conducive to that strong suit and this is a tough travel spot.
#343 HAWAII @ #344 COLORADO - 2:00 PM
The Buffaloes were a team many saw poised for improvement this season but the early returns have not been overly promising. The same can be said of Hawaii as the Warriors looked notably better on both sides of the ball in competitive games vs. the Pac-12 but then struggled in a narrow home win last week against FCS Northern Iowa. Wins may continue to be tough to come by for both programs making this is a very important game. It is the first road game of the season for Hawaii, facing long travel, thin air, and an early start. That could make for a problematic situation and this could be a game where Colorado is able to put it together. The offense has some potential for the Buffaloes but the defense continues to struggle but Colorado dominated the box score last week at Arizona State but had three turnovers to off-set almost 550 yards of offense. Hawaii is understandably not the same team on the road and the Warriors could be flat off a rare win.
#345 MIDDLE TENN ST @ #346 MEMPHIS - 7:00 PM
The Tigers have not had much success in recent years but this is clearly the best Memphis team at least since 2008. Memphis dominated Austin Peay in its only home game this season and then went out to UCLA and played right with a Bruins team many expect to win the Pac-12. Memphis has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup against its former Conference USA partner with Memphis now in the AAC. Memphis should be much better defensively in this matchup than the numbers against UCLA suggest. Middle Tennessee State won eight games last season but this may not be an ideal spot to pick up this rivalry as last week’s game with Western Kentucky was the conference opener and a big home game for the Blue Raiders. That was an epic triple-OT game that took a lot of out of the team. The Blue Raiders allowed over 700 yards despite winning. Last season MTSU won just 17-15 in this series at home while getting out-gained and the Tigers look ready to snap a three-year losing streak in this rivalry.
________________________________________________
Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
With both the National Football League, and NCAA College Football regular seasons in full swing. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"
Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.
"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
___________________________________________________
#347 GEORGIA ST @ #348 WASHINGTON - 6:00 PM
None of the wins have come easily for Chris Petersen at Washington in his first season after making the jump from Boise State but the Huskies are 3-0 heading into this final tune-up before hosting Stanford next week. Georgia State has already surpassed last year’s win total but the Panthers do not figure to snag more than a few wins this season. This will be the first road game of the season for Georgia State with a long trip to a tough venue and the Panthers are really just here to collect a check. The schedule for Washington has been tougher than it sounds as Hawaii and Illinois are clearly improved and Eastern Washington would beat many FBS teams so the Huskies, through some turmoil and challenges in the transition are getting it done. Covering a huge spread seems like a challenge for the Huskies however as Georgia State can air it out.
#349 APPALACHIAN ST @ #350 SOUTHERN MISS - 7:00 PM
After going 1-23 the past two seasons Southern Miss already has a win this season and the losses have come on the road against high end SEC teams. This should be a matchup that the Golden Eagles can handle and it seems like this should be a better team now in the second season under Todd Monken and with decent experience on the roster. Appalachian State has made the leap to the FBS level but the program is not where it was a decade ago when it was the top team at the FCS level. Appalachian State did pick up a win against Campbell two weeks ago with dominant numbers and the Mountaineers have had two weeks to prepare for this game, knowing this is one of the games they have a realistic shot in. Appalachian State has allowed 9.7 yards per rush this season against FBS teams. Next week’s Sun Belt opener may be a bigger game for the team but they could catch Southern Miss banged up after facing Alabama.
#351 GA SOUTHERN @ #352 S ALABAMA - 7:30 PM
The Jaguars look ready to put together an excellent season after making some noise in Sun Belt play late last season. South Alabama enters this game at 1-1 but the loss was against Mississippi State last week. Georgia Southern will be known as the team that beat Florida all season but this year’s team has performed well as well, nearly beating NC State in the opening week and losing by just four against Georgia Tech last week. These teams will be on equal footing as Sun Belt foes and Georgia Southern may continue to take in smart money as they have in the two near upsets. Despite a lot of big changes for the program, the jump to the FBS level has gone pretty smoothly for the Eagles.
#355 RUTGERS @ #356 NAVY - 3:30 PM
This could be a tough spot for Rutgers after the fanfare around last week’s opening game in the Big Ten. The Knights made a splash in the opening week winning away from home against Washington State but at this point that win may not be worth as much. Rutgers has been a great defensive team against the run under Kyle Flood and that should mean this is a favorable matchup against a Navy team that rarely passes and has a banged up quarterback. This is the first home game of the season for Navy after three consecutive weeks away from home, losing the opener with Ohio State in a close game and picking up road wins the past two weeks. Expect a strong effort from Navy in the home debut and the Rutgers defense should get tested in a potentially problematic spot on the schedule after last week’s very narrow defeat with five turnovers against Penn State.
#359 UNLV @ #360 HOUSTON - 8:00 PM
The Cougars wound up with only an eight-point defeat in what was a sloppy game with BYU last Thursday night. Houston is 0-2 in its big primetime games this season as this has been a disappointing team at this point in the season. UNLV’s game with Northern Illinois last week was a focused effort but all indications are that will be a long season in Las Vegas to follow up last season’s bowl breakthrough. This is the first of three straight road games for UNLV but the next two are at least conference games. Houston has a favorable schedule the rest of the way and this is a team that can still have a very successful season even though in two plus seasons under Tony Levine the Cougars have underachieved. UNLV playing on the road has been a near-automatic play-against team.
#361 GEORGIA TECH @ #362 VIRGINIA TECH - 12:00 PM
The Hokies stay back in the national spotlight was short-lived as the upset win at Ohio State was followed up with a home loss against East Carolina. Virginia Tech allowed over 500 yards of offense, mostly through the air, simply unheard of numbers in the Frank Beamer era. The Hokies did rally back from a 21-0 deficit to tie the game as this team still has some potential but bouncing back from the first loss will not be easy. Many people had Georgia Tech on upset alert last week and while early on that notion seemed foolish with a 35-10 halftime lead, the Yellow Jackets actually needed a touchdown with less than a minute to go to take back the lead for the win. Georgia Tech is 3-0 on the season but this will be a big jump in class. Last season Virginia Tech won 17-10 in Atlanta in a game where neither offense did much, in fact Georgia Tech lost despite allowing only 276 yards in the game. Another grinder seems likely this week.
#369 TEXAS ST @ #370 ILLINOIS - 4:00 PM
The Illini suffered a lopsided loss last week on the road for the first time at Washington. That followed up two narrow wins to open the season. Texas State may not sound like much of a draw this week but the Bobcats have a quality team that will compete well this season. Next on the schedule for Illinois is also the Big Ten opener vs. Nebraska. Texas State drew a lot of interest last week hosting Navy as many grabbed the sharp early number of +12½ only to be disappointed as one of the biggest line moves of the week proved wrong. This will be the first road game of the season for Texas State and it is not clear that the Bobcats can keep pace.
#371 OLD DOMINION @ #372 RICE - 12:00 PM
Old Dominion is off to a 2-1 start but the wins came against FCS Hampton and Eastern Michigan. The Monarchs are in a position to succeed as much as any of the new FBS entrants with a favorable schedule and a veteran team and coaching staff but as last season’s erratic results indicated it may not be a consistent level of competitiveness. With 10 wins last season Rice was an overachiever but this should be a hungry team sitting at 0-2 with this being the home opener in Houston. Rice had faced Notre Dame and Texas A&M so needless to say the numbers can be thrown out and this is finally a matchup the Owls can handle. Rice went 8-1 in Conference USA games last season so this will be focused team as Old Dominion plays its first conference game at the FBS level.
#373 LOUISVILLE @ #374 FLA INTERNATIONAL - 3:30 PM
The Cardinals have as many losses as last season already as the early optimism with the return of Bobby Petrino and the win over Miami has faded after last week’s loss against Virginia. Louisville has a favorable schedule in the coming weeks to get back on track and the Cardinals beat Florida International 72-0 last season. The Panthers beat Louisville in 2011 and played within seven in 2012 so expecting a blowout again may be risky. FIU is 1-2 on the season including a FCS loss but that defeat came against a Bethune-Cookman squad that is one of the top teams at that level. Last week FIU played Pittsburgh pretty tough, covering as a home underdog and this could be a similar type of game. Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games as a road favorite and this is a second straight road game for a Cardinals team coming off a disappointing first loss.
#375 MIAMI OHIO @ #376 CINCINNATI - 7:00 PM
Miami is 0-3 but the Redhawks played competitively with both Marshall and Michigan. Cincinnati opened the season with a win over Toledo last Friday but it was a game where the Bearcats nearly gave away a huge early lead. Cincinnati won just 14-0 last season against a Miami team that eventually went 0-12 and in that game the Redhawks managed a net total of just 87 yards. The offense this season is clearly stronger and this will be a bigger game for the nearby underdog. Cincinnati has controlled this series and has been a solid favorite performer but with Ohio State up next on the schedule in a season where the Buckeyes may be ripe for the picking, focus may be limited this week for the heavy favorite.
#377 SAN DIEGO ST @ #378 OREGON ST - 10:30 PM
Two under heralded but successful long time coaches face off in this nonconference matchup for the second straight season. Oregon State won 34-30 last season in a very even game in San Diego. The Beavers have not been overly impressive in two narrow wins to start the season and next week the Pac-12 opener features a big game at USC. For San Diego State the chance to take on the Pac-12 is always a big draw and the Aztecs are 3-0 ATS the last three season versus the conference. San Diego State played a very competitive game at North Carolina in the second game of the season as well. Both teams were off last week so sharp performances should be expected and the once daunting home field edge in Corvallis seems to have diminished in recent years with recent pricing.
#381 N ILLINOIS @ #382 ARKANSAS - 7:00 PM
After surviving the heat in Las Vegas Northern Illinois takes a perfect 3-0 record to Fayetteville for another big opportunity for an upset. The Huskies were expected to take a step back this season but so far things still look good in Dekalb as they will head into MAC play in two weeks. Arkansas did not have much success last season and Bret Bielema is still winless in SEC play but last week’s win over Texas Tech on the road was a prominent victory that the team needed to build confidence moving forward. The SEC opener with Texas A&M is on deck, a big game in Arlington but this is not a team that the Razorbacks can overlook given the recent track record for the Huskies. Both teams feature great rushing attacks and while this is a suspect spot for Arkansas motivation-wise, NIU is in a third straight road game and coming off a trip to Las Vegas. Given the great underdog success for Northern Illinois and a rush-defense that has struggled for Arkansas this is potential upset spot again. Arkansas has not had too many wins under Bielema and handling some success could be a challenge. NIU knows the
Bielema offense and value will be with the Huskies.
#383 UTAH ST @ #384 ARKANSAS ST - 7:00 PM
The Arkansas State program is doing some things right even if they can’t seem to keep a coach in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves are now 1-2 on the season but in difficult tests on the road Arkansas State performed respectably at Tennessee and at Miami the past two weeks. This should be a more reasonable matchup and a big non-conference test for the program, taking a step up to face Utah State of the Mountain West but getting to host the game. Both teams have lost to Tennessee this season but Arkansas State was much more competitive in the effort though comparing the spreads in the two matches portray the Aggies as the vastly superior team. This is a tough spot for Utah State as they hosted Wake Forest last week in a big opportunity for the program and they lost their star QB to injury again. The Aggies have not been as sharp on defense this season and losing coaches has been a problem in Logan as well. Ultimately this should be a good spot for the host to play well in a more favorable matchup.
#385 NEW MEXICO @ #386 NEW MEXICO ST - 8:00 PM
This rivalry has been dominated by the Lobos and New Mexico has covered in six of the last eight meetings overall while covering in six of the last seven trips to Las Cruces. New Mexico State has competed better than most expected so far this season coming off a 2-10 season and certainly this is one of the biggest dates on the schedule for the team. New Mexico is 0-2 but they had turnover issues in the opener against UTEP and were overmatched against Arizona State. The Lobos have had two weeks to prepare for this game and while they won 66-17 last season in the matchup they will not take the rivalry lightly, especially on the road and without a win on the season. New Mexico State may still be without its QB as well.
#391 CALIFORNIA @ #392 ARIZONA - 10:00 PM
The Pac-12 opener for both teams will be a critical game as the schedule is about to get very tough for Arizona, facing Oregon and USC in the next two games after a bye week. California did not win a conference game last season but they played right with Arizona last season in 33-28 loss at home. This had to be a game the team believes they can steal, especially with two weeks to prepare while Arizona had a challenging non-conference test with Nevada last week at home. California can score points with a great passing offense and while the defense has been vulnerable, Arizona has missed on many scoring chances this season despite strong yardage production. The Bears are incredibly 14-3 ATS as an underdog in this series going back to 1981 while going 10-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1983 against Arizona. The situation and history point a close game.
#393 LA LAFAYETTE @ #394 BOISE ST - 10:30 PM
The Ragin’ Cajuns won the Sun Belt last season but the results the last two weeks have been ugly with a lopsided loss to Louisiana Tech at home and then a non-competitive effort against Mississippi. Heading to Boise looks like a difficult situation for a team in disarray. Boise State opened the season against the Ole Miss squad that beat Louisiana by 41 points last Saturday. The Broncos also lost by a large margin of 22 points but it was a misleading final score as Boise State was right in the game until the fourth quarter. The Broncos have rebounded with consecutive victories over Colorado State and Connecticut, respectable wins but neither was that convincing statistically.
___________________________________
Top-25 Matchups Week #4
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#307 INDIANA @ #308 MISSOURI
TV: 4:00 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: Missouri -13.5, Total: 73
No individual in the country has been responsible for more points this season than Missouri’s Sophomore Maty Mauk, but perhaps no player has been as dominant as Indiana’s Junior Tevin Coleman. Seeking their seventh 4-0 start in the last nine years, the 19th-ranked Tigers close out their nonconference slate Saturday at home against the Hoosiers. Mauk is tied with two other quarterbacks for the national lead in touchdown passes (12) and has even added a rushing score to account for a NCAA-best 78 points.
Mauk has been incredibly efficient, requiring only 77 passing attempts to amass his gaudy totals through the air while Washington State’s Connor Halliday and Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty – the two quarterbacks he is tied with in passing touchdowns – have each recorded at least 170 attempts. Efficiency only begins to describe Coleman, who is averaging 9.3 yards per carry and paces the country in rushing yards per game (218.5) and all-purpose yards per game (237.5). However, the 6'1" 210 pound running back’s three-touchdown outburst last weekend wasn’t enough in the Hoosiers’ heartbreaking 45-42 loss at Bowling Green.
•ABOUT INDIANA (1-1): Coleman was limited to 79 total yards (including 54 rushing) in last September’s 45-28 loss to the Tigers, but has been held under 99 total yards only once since and has amassed at least 222 in each of his last three games. The Illinois native has ripped off four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances – tied for best in the nation – and spearheads an offense than ranks third nationally in rushing (345 yards per game) and ninth in total offense (574). Coleman also leads the country in 30- (13), 40- (10) and 50-yard (six) runs and is second in 60-yarders (four).
•ABOUT MISSOURI (3-0): One of the many reasons for Mauk’s efficiency comes from the dynamic play of the running game, which saw each of its key contributors leave before the end of last week’s 38-10 victory over Central Florida. Marcus Murphy rushed for 94 yards on 15 carries before sitting out the last five minutes with a mild ankle injury, while Russell Hansbrough (48 on nine attempts) left on the first play of the fourth quarter due to dizziness, but both are expected to go against Indiana. The defense also has more than held its own, recording a SEC-high 12 sacks and forcing five interceptions.
•PREGAME NOTES: Missouri has forced a turnover in a NCAA-high 47 consecutive games, 18 more than second-place Louisiana-Monroe.... Coleman, who has found the end zone at least once in a FBS-high 11 straight contests, can match Anthony Thompson’s school-record streak with another touchdown Saturday.... The Tigers can collect consecutive victories over the Hoosiers for the first time since the schools met back in 1953 and 1954....The Hoosiers have been outscored by an average of 31.9 points during a 13-game road losing streak against ranked teams. They've dropped 18 in a row overall when facing Top 25 foes.
•KEY STATS
--INDIANA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 30.7, OPPONENT 44.1.
--INDIANA is 44-16 OVER (+26.4 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was INDIANA 25.3, OPPONENT 32.0.
--INDIANA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 11.4, OPPONENT 23.3.
--MISSOURI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 40.4, OPPONENT 21.6.
--MISSOURI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 40.9, OPPONENT 25.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--KEVIN WILSON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was INDIANA 29.5, OPPONENT 41.6.
--KEVIN WILSON is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was INDIANA 33.8, OPPONENT 41.1.
--KEVIN WILSON is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was INDIANA 27.1, OPPONENT 45.2.
--KEVIN WILSON 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was INDIANA 5.9, OPPONENT 28.0.
--KEVIN WILSON is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was INDIANA 15.5, OPPONENT 20.7.
--GARY PINKEL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of MISSOURI.
The average score was MISSOURI 33.2, OPPONENT 25.2.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MISSOURI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1992.
--MISSOURI is 1-1 straight up against INDIANA since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MISSOURI is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--IND is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
--Over is 6-1 in IND last 7 games in September.
--MIZZ is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
--MIZZ is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games in September.
--Under is 6-2 in MIZZ last 8 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 18 times, while the underdog covered the spread 10 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 29 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 4 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 20 times, while the favorite covered first half line 9 times. *No EDGE. 3 games went under first half total, while 2 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
______________________________________________
#323 TROY @ #324 GEORGIA
TV: Noon EST, SEC Network
Line: Georgia -41, Total: 67
Georgia’s chance at a big South Eastern Conference road victory faded away after it came up empty inside the South Carolina 5-yard line late in the fourth quarter last weekend. The 14th-ranked Bulldogs look to rebound from that missed opportunity and start a winning streak when struggling Troy pays a visit on Saturday. Georgia’s Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley could be primed for a big game on the ground against a Troy defense that is allowing 233.7 rushing yards and 40 points per game.
Gurley is averaging 164.5 yards through his first two contests for an offense that has compiled 80 points but sputtered before missing a short field goal for the tie with 4:24 left during Week #3. The winless Trojans coughed up a 14-point lead in the second half before dropping a 38-35 decision to Abilene Christian last Saturday. “They’re a team that’s desperate for a victory, I’m sure,” Georgia coach Mark Richt told reporters. “But we’re desperate for a victory as well, so it ought to be a great game.”
•ABOUT TROY (0-3): The Trojans, who have been outscored 65-17 in the second half, need to improve on the defensive side of the ball. Brandon Silvers (509 yards passing), whose status is uncertain after leaving last week’s game with an apparent concussion, and Dontreal Pruitt (216) have completed 64-of-102 passes without an interception to lead a capable offense. Brandon Burks leads the team in rushing with only 104 yards and has added another 121 on 12 receptions.
•ABOUT GEORGIA (1-1): The Bulldogs are averaging almost seven yards per carry but will have to get a few more big plays out of their passing game. Quarterback Hutson Mason is completing 70.8 percent of his passes but has totaled only 322 yards, and Michael Bennett leads the way with only seven receptions for 82 yards. Linebackers Amarlo Herrera (11.5) and Ramik Wilson (10) are the top two in the SEC in tackles per game for a defense that gave up 447 yards in the 38-35 loss to South Carolina.
•PREGAME NOTES: Gurley needs 32 yards to pass Knowshon Moreno (2,734) for fourth place on Georgia’s all-time rushing list.... Troy sophomore RB Jordan Chunn has recorded 16 touchdowns in his first 15 collegiate games.... The Bulldogs are 36-1 at home against non-conference opponents since 2001.... In the only other meeting between these programs, Troy lost 44-34 in 2007, when Knowshon Moreno was Georgia's star running back. Troy coach Larry Blakeney said Gurley is so good he should be compared with the Bulldogs' greatest back of all, Herschel Walker.
•KEY STATS
--TROY is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) against SEC opponents since 1992.
The average score was TROY 20.9, OPPONENT 40.8.
--GEORGIA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GEORGIA 43.4, OPPONENT 23.8.
--GEORGIA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GEORGIA 24.9, OPPONENT 17.5.
--GEORGIA is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA 22.9, OPPONENT 9.3.
•COACHING TRENDS
--LARRY BLAKENEY is 32-13 OVER (+17.7 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of TROY.
The average score was TROY 23.3, OPPONENT 29.4.
--LARRY BLAKENEY 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of TROY.
The average score was TROY 22.2, OPPONENT 31.1.
--LARRY BLAKENEY is 26-9 OVER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total in September games as the coach of TROY.
The average score was TROY 11.8, OPPONENT 17.3.
--MARK RICHT is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 34.8, OPPONENT 17.5.
--MARK RICHT is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 30.1, OPPONENT 23.1.
--MARK RICHT is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 9.3, OPPONENT 11.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TROY is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1992.
--GEORGIA is 1-0 straight up against TROY since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--GEORGIA is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against TROY since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TROY is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
--TROY is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 13-1 in TROY last 14 versus SEC.
--UGA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus Sun Belt.
--UGA is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Over is 20-7 in UGA last 27 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 0 times, while the underdog covered the spread 0 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 1 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 1 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 1 times, while the favorite covered first half line 0 times. *No EDGE. 2 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
_______________________________________________
#325 BOWLING GREEN @ #326 WISCONSIN
TV: Noon EST, ESPN2
Line: Wisconsin -26.5, Total: 64
No. 17 Wisconsin is back on the field after a bye week and attempts to win its 31st consecutive nonconference home game when it faces Bowling Green on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers are hoping to get star tailback Melvin Gordon going against the Falcons after he had just 38 yards on 17 carries against Western Illinois on Sept. 6. “We want to run the ball better,” Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen told reporters. “That’s all of us. That’s everybody involved in the run game, including myself.”
The Badgers are also worried about the frenetic place Bowling Green has displayed through its first three games. The Falcons set a school record by running 113 plays in last week’s 45-42 victory over Indiana – Bowling Green’s first victory over a Big Ten program since 2007. Wisconsin has held opponents to 59.5 plays, 263.5 yards and 15.5 points in its first two games.
•ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (2-1): Quarterback James Knapke is coming off a sensational effort against Indiana in which he went 46-of-73 for 395 yards and three touchdowns. The biggest throw was Knapke’s game-winning 2-yard touchdown throw to Roger Lewis with nine seconds left, and Lewis had 16 receptions for 149 yards and has 30 catches through three games. Strong safety Brian Sutton (29 tackles), outside linebacker Gabe Martin (26 tackles) and nose guard Gus Schwieterman (team-best four tackles for losses) headline the defense.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (1-1): Quarterback Tanner McEvoy struggled in the season opener against LSU but bounced back to go 23-of-28 for 283 yards versus Western Illinois and completed 17 consecutive passes, passing Russell Wilson’s school mark of 16. Gordon became the 13th player in school history to surpass 2,500 rushing yards against Western Illinois despite a subpar performance that followed a 140-yard effort against LSU. Inside linebacker Marcus Trotter (18 tackles) and strong safety Michael Caputo (17 tackles, one interception) lead the defense.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Badgers haven't played Bowling Green since a 35-14 win at Cleveland in 2006 to improve to 3-0 in the all-time series.... Bowling Green is allowing 569.3 yards per game, including 412.3 through the air.... Badgers WR Alex Erickson had 10 catches against Western Illinois – becoming the 11th player in school history with 10 or more receptions – for a career-best 122 yards.... Wisconsin has won 30 straight non-conference home games - the nation's second-longest active streak - and are 29-2 all-time against Mid-American Conference teams.
•KEY STATS
--BOWLING GREEN is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 28.7, OPPONENT 15.8.
--BOWLING GREEN is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 26.2, OPPONENT 13.9.
--BOWLING GREEN is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 21.5, OPPONENT 14.9.
--WISCONSIN is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.
The average score was WISCONSIN 39.9, OPPONENT 13.8.
--WISCONSIN is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more since 1992.
The average score was WISCONSIN 39.1, OPPONENT 10.4.
--WISCONSIN is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was WISCONSIN 36.6, OPPONENT 13.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--GARY ANDERSEN is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in games played on turf in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ANDERSEN 36.3, OPPONENT 21.2.
--GARY ANDERSEN is 17-5 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ANDERSEN 27.3, OPPONENT 25.6.
--GARY ANDERSEN is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=425 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ANDERSEN 36.1, OPPONENT 12.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 2-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN since 1992.
--WISCONSIN is 3-0 straight up against BOWLING GREEN since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WISCONSIN is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against BOWLING GREEN since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BGSU is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.
--BGSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 8-2 in BGSU last 10 games in September.
--WIS is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
--WIS is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
--Under is 5-1 in WIS last 6 versus MAC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 7 times, while the favorite covered the spread 3 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 24 games went under the total, while 20 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 5 times, while the underdog covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 21 games went over first half total, while 21 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (WISCONSIN) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game.
(22-4 since 1992.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-0)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 28.2
The average score in these games was: Team 50.7, Opponent 13.3 (Average point differential = +37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (64% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
_______________________________________________
#337 E MICHIGAN @ #338 MICHIGAN ST
TV: Noon EST, Big Ten Network
Line: Michigan St. -45, Total: 51.5
After having two weeks to stew over letting a nine-point lead slip away, Michigan State looks to rid itself of that sour taste when it hosts Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The 11th-ranked Spartans took a hit toward earning a spot in college football's four-team playoff with a 46-27 loss to No. 3 Oregon on September 6th. With a less-than-daunting schedule on the horizon, coach Mark Dantonio said he isn't interested in piling on the points in a bid to possibly tip the scale in his team's favor.
"We are going to play to win, and after that is accomplished, we're going to try to get our younger players playing and develop experience and depth on this football team," Dantonio said. "I'm not interested in taking a timeout before the end of the game to get another seven points. I'm interested in playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and letting it go." That could provide some solace for the Eagles, who have dropped all nine meetings against their intra-state rival and have been outscored 82-3 en route to losing decisions to Florida and Old Dominion.
•ABOUT EASTERN MICHIGAN (1-2): First-year coach Chris Creighton is choosing to look at positives despite seeing his team gouged for 211 rushing yards per game this season. "I really felt as though (the defense) kept us in the game and gave us a chance to win," Creighton said after surrendering a season-low 367 total yards in a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs. Offensively, senior Bronson Hill rushed for 78 yards on 16 carries last week.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (1-1): Connor Cook is 41-of-60 for 628 yards with five touchdowns this season and looks to exploit an Eastern Michigan club that has permitted 868 yards passing. The ground game has yet to get untracked as Jeremy Langford has struggled to build off his record-setting performance last year following eight straight 100-yard games. The senior has been held under that plateau in each of his last three and has mustered just 143 yards on 37 carries.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State was limited to 37 yards rushing in the second half versus Oregon.... The Eagles held a 7-3 halftime lead before the Spartans scored the final 20 points in their last meeting on September 22nd, 2012.... Michigan State WR Tony Lippett reeled in 11 receptions against the Ducks and leads the team with three touchdowns.... The Eagles, who are 0-9 all-time against ranked opponents, have lost nine straight and 19 of 21 on the road.... The Spartans are 11-25 versus the spread after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--E MICHIGAN is 15-37 ATS (-25.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 17.5, OPPONENT 35.2.
--E MICHIGAN is 34-61 ATS (-33.1 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 19.3, OPPONENT 32.8.
--E MICHIGAN is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 17.9, OPPONENT 43.6.
--E MICHIGAN is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 22.6, OPPONENT 49.3.
--E MICHIGAN is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 11.3, OPPONENT 28.1.
--MICHIGAN ST is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 31.9, OPPONENT 27.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARK DANTONIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 27.0, OPPONENT 18.8.
--MARK DANTONIO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 25.9, OPPONENT 19.3.
--MARK DANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was DANTONIO 38.9, OPPONENT 13.6.
--MARK DANTONIO is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 36.3, OPPONENT 22.7.
--MARK DANTONIO is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=310 yards/game as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 12.1, OPPONENT 13.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 4-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN since 1992.
--MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MICHIGAN ST is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against E MICHIGAN since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Michigan State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--EMU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--EMU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
--Over is 5-0 in EMU last 5 games following a bye week.
--MSU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--MSU is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 9-3-1 in MSU last 13 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 0 times, while the underdog covered the spread 0 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 0 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 2 times, while the underdog covered first half line 0 times. *No EDGE. 1 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
_______________________________________________
#339 S CAROLINA @ #340 VANDERBILT
TV: 7:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: S Carolina -22, Total: 52
No. 16 South Carolina goes on the road for the first time this season when it travels to Vanderbilt for an SEC Eastern Division game Saturday night. Both teams are coming in off narrow wins after surprisingly rocky starts to their seasons. The Gamecocks, considered a strong candidate to be one of the four teams to make the College Football Playoff, have won three straight including a 38-35 victory over No. 6 Georgia last Saturday since opening the season with a stunning 52-28 home loss to Texas A&M, while Vanderbilt held off Massachusetts, 34-31, following back-to-back blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss.
The win over rival Georgia, which missed two field goals and had a touchdown called back, kept the preseason hopes of a divisional crown alive for the Gamecocks, but coach Steve Spurrier warned his squad this week that it still has a long ways to go to win an South Eastern Conference title. "If we think we're a pretty good football team just because we beat Georgia with a lot of good breaks then we're fooling ourselves," Spurrier said. "We've got a lot of room for improvement if we're going to have a chance to have a big year."
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2-1, 1-1 SEC): Quarterback Dylan Thompson threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Georgia and is averaging 301 yards passing per game. He can lean on a strong running game led by the junior combo of Brandon Wilds (62.3 ypg) and Mike Davis (60.7 ypg) and an offensive line led by massive 6-foot-8, 348-pound tackle Corey Robinson, who was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week after the Georgia win. LB Skai Moore leads the defense with 23 tackles.
•ABOUT VANDERBILT (1-2, 0-1 SEC): The Commodores have struggled badly on offense under first-year coach Derek Mason, scoring a total of just 10 points in their first two games before breaking out for 34 in the victory over winless UMass. However, two of those touchdowns came via defense and special teams. Running-back Ralph Webb has been the team's most consistent offensive weapon, running for a career-high 116 yards on 26 carries and scoring his first career touchdown in the win over Massachusetts.
•PREGAME NOTES: South Carolina is 12-5 in its last 17 road contests with four of the losses to ranked opponents.... The Gamecocks lead the all-time series 19-4 and have won the last five in a row.... Spurrier enters the game tied with Georgia's Vince Dooley with 201 SEC coaching wins which ranks second behind only legendary Paul "Bear" Bryant's 292.... While the Commodores are last in SEC scoring offense, the Gamecocks are at the bottom in points allowed a quarter of the way through the season. Where South Carolina has a clear advantage is in the passing game where it's averaging 301 yards through the air. Vanderbilt has managed less than half of that under Mason.
•KEY STATS
--S CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 35.7, OPPONENT 13.8.
--S CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 31.6, OPPONENT 13.9.
--S CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 20.8, OPPONENT 24.1.
--S CAROLINA is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 17.6, OPPONENT 23.3.
--S CAROLINA is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 17.1, OPPONENT 6.3.
--S CAROLINA is 4-14 against the 1rst half line (-11.4 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 11.3, OPPONENT 12.4.
--S CAROLINA is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 8.2, OPPONENT 10.7.
--VANDERBILT is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a win by 6 or less points since 1992.
The average score was VANDERBILT 25.4, OPPONENT 21.9.
--VANDERBILT is 29-10 UNDER (+18.0 Units) the 1rst half total in September games since 1992.
The average score was VANDERBILT 9.1, OPPONENT 11.3.
--VANDERBILT is 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was VANDERBILT 8.7, OPPONENT 13.2.
--VANDERBILT is 29-11 UNDER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was VANDERBILT 9.6, OPPONENT 11.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--STEVE SPURRIER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=310 yards/game as the coach of S CAROLINA.
The average score was S CAROLINA 43.6, OPPONENT 11.3.
--STEVE SPURRIER is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of S CAROLINA.
The average score was S CAROLINA 21.1, OPPONENT 21.9.
--STEVE SPURRIER is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of S CAROLINA.
The average score was S CAROLINA 7.1, OPPONENT 12.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S CAROLINA is 13-8 against the spread versus VANDERBILT since 1992.
--S CAROLINA is 18-4 straight up against VANDERBILT since 1992.
--8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--S CAROLINA is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against VANDERBILT since 1992.
--8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
--Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Vanderbilt.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SOCAR is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
--SOCAR is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 10-4 in SOCAR last 14 conference games.
--VAN is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--VAN is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 8-2 in VAN last 10 games following a SU win.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 13 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 74 games went under the total, while 45 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 11 times, while the favorite covered first half line 7 times. *No EDGE. 79 games went under first half total, while 40 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER. _________________________________________________________________________
#353 TEXAS A&M @ #354 SMU
TV: 3:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2
Line: Texas A&M -33.5, Total: 59
Johnny who? The absence of former Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel has not slowed the potent offense of seventh-ranked Texas A&M, which is seeking its first 4-0 start since 2006 when it visits intrastate rival Southern Methodist on Saturday afternoon. The Aggies have made a seamless transition under sophomore Kenny Hill, who has notched 11 touchdown passes versus zero interceptions and is the first quarterback in school history to throw for over 1,000 yards in the first three games.
Texas A&M has been an offensive machine starting with an eye-opening upset at then-No. 20 South Carolina, rolling up 163 points in its three wins, and doesn't figure to encounter much resistance from the overmatched Mustangs. Not only has SMU been steamrolled in losing its first two games by a combined 88-6, the team will be playing under a new coach after June Jones resigned September 8th. Defensive coordinator Tom Mason was named his replacement on an interim basis and faces a daunting task in the Mustangs' home opener.
•ABOUT TEXAS A&M (3-0): While Hill continues to show he is a worthy successor to Manziel, throwing for four touchdowns and 300 yards in last week's 38-10 victory over Rice, the Aggies also entered the season wondering how to replace Mike Evans, a first-round pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Malcome Kennedy leads the team with 24 receptions and is among five players with double-digit receptions, including 6-5 Ricky Seals-Jones, who missed much of his freshman campaign with a knee injury. Texas A&M also features an impact freshman on the other side of the ball in defensive lineman Myles Garrett, who recorded two more sacks last week to give him an SEC-leading 5.5 on the season.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (0-2): Citing personal reasons, coach June Jones resigned two days after the 43-6 drubbing at North Texas, leaving the Mustangs to go forward under Mason, who spent his previous six seasons as the school's defensive coordinator. Redshirt freshman Kolney Cassel will be making his first career start after coming off the bench to throw for 134 yards and a touchdown on 11-of-21 passing, but SMU must find a way to get some semblance of a ground game going after being held to minus-14 yards over the first two games. Wide receiver Darius Joseph, who caught 103 passes last season, sat out the last game with a hamstring injury.
•PREGAME NOTES: Texas A&M has won five straight versus Southern Methodist University and the average victory margin over the past three seasons is 35.3 points.... SMU's only points this season came on the final play of the loss to North Texas.... The Aggies will be without star WR Speedy Noil, who is expected to miss three to five weeks with a knee injury.... The Aggies have recorded nine sacks after finishing near the bottom of the conference with 21 last year.... Texas A&M, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, has put up 41.6 points per game in winning 10 straight road contests against unranked opponents.... SMU has been limited to an average of 9.8 during a five-game losing streak against Top 25 foes.
•KEY STATS
--TEXAS A&M is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 24.5, OPPONENT 27.0.
--TEXAS A&M is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 31.7, OPPONENT 41.8.
--TEXAS A&M is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 28.7, OPPONENT 33.1.
--SMU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
The average score was SMU 26.5, OPPONENT 36.1.
--SMU is 26-50 ATS (-29.0 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was SMU 18.0, OPPONENT 29.6.
--SMU is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
The average score was SMU 23.8, OPPONENT 21.9.
--SMU is 14-29 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992.
The average score was SMU 9.4, OPPONENT 16.6.
--SMU is 30-11 against the 1rst half line (+17.9 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was SMU 12.9, OPPONENT 12.3.
--SMU is 50-23 UNDER (+24.7 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SMU 8.5, OPPONENT 15.8.
--SMU is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a bye week since 1992.
The average score was SMU 11.6, OPPONENT 9.9.
--SMU is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was SMU 8.8, OPPONENT 15.4.
•COACHING TRENDS
--KEVIN SUMLIN is 22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) off a home win in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SUMLIN 46.6, OPPONENT 31.9.
--KEVIN SUMLIN is 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SUMLIN 46.9, OPPONENT 28.5.
--KEVIN SUMLIN is 6-17 against the 1rst half line (-12.7 Units) in road games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SUMLIN 14.6, OPPONENT 16.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS A&M is 5-3 against the spread versus SMU since 1992.
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 straight up against SMU since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SMU is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TAM is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
--TAM is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
--Under is 4-1 in TAM last 5 non-conference games.
--SMU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--SMU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in SMU last 11 games following a bye week.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 5 times, while the favorite covered the spread 0 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 5 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 17 games went under the total, while 12 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 4 times, while the favorite covered first half line 1 times. *No EDGE. 15 games went over first half total, while 13 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
________________________________________________
Inside the Huddle Subscription...
2014-15 NFL and NCAAF Best Bets
Looking for an advantage every day, simply signup for our NFL and NCAAF Special offer. Lock up the best winning selections in the business today, from now through Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday, February 1st, 2015 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. From now, until kickoff of Week Three’s Monday Night Football matchup (9/22) with Chicago traveling to East Rutherford, NJ to take on the NY Jets, we're offering you the chance to get all our Top Rated Selections from our team of expert handicappers for ONLY $1399.
This offer includes everything we release on the Gridiron starting with the "Expert's 2014 Consensus" Five *Star Conference Game of the Year, along with our "HUGE *Six-Star NFL Mismatch" of the Season, all of our 1st Half Selections, and every Star-Rated release during the campaign.
Plus as an "added bonus for signing up today" you will receive the rest of the MLB season FREE! Our daily (MLB, NFL and NCAACF)StatSystems Reports - the #1 Rated Betting Publication in the country today, along with our 2014 Football Yearbook, a Mega Guide of everything you need to know. "Remember, if you're going to invest your very hard earned dollars in September up until February, this is the package you need.... It's affordable, and loaded with winning information!"
You may recall pros like Stan 'The Man, Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor, Systems Analyst's James Vogel, Larry Hertner and William Stillman, along with our Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo on an absolute tear on the Gridiron, Hardwood and Major League Baseball as we head into Football Season! "You'll need to move quick on this one though." On Sunday (September, 28th), the cost for this package will increase to $1799.00; which is a bargain itself, when considering the number of games involved, along with the net profit won by our team of Pro's at the #1 Rated Sports Site in the Industry today!
"Don't make a move without it.... You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
_________________________________________________
#357 FLORIDA @ #358 ALABAMA
TV: 3:30 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Alabama -14.5, Total: 50.5
Florida’s secondary gave up 369 passing yards in last week’s triple-overtime victory over Kentucky, and the challenge will be much greater Saturday afternoon when the Gators travel to No. 2 Alabama for the Crimson Tide’s South Eastern Conference opener. Alabama features one of the nation’s top playmakers in receiver Amari Cooper, and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry each topped 100 yards rushing in the season-opening victory over West Virginia. The Crimson Tide were pushed in the opener before winning 33-23, then scored 93 points in blowout victories over Florida Atlantic and Southern Mississippi.
The Gators have experienced a far more interesting start to their season, after their season opener with Idaho was canceled by bad weather and the Wildcats pushed Florida on its home field before the Gators survived 36-30 in three overtimes. Receiver Demarcus Robinson tied a school record with 15 receptions against Kentucky, finishing with 216 yards and two touchdowns, but the Gators mustered just a field goal in the first half and did not score in the fourth quarter. Alabama leads the series 23-14, winning the past three matchups.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (2-0, 1-0 SEC): The Gators scored only 20 points in regulation and avoiding a shocking defeat by converting a fourth-and-goal from the 9 in the first overtime, getting 156 yards rushing from Matt Jones and a career-best 295 passing yards from Jeff Driskel. Florida did hold Kentucky to 81 yards rushing, but their secondary was drilled for 24-of-45 passing and gave up three touchdown passes of 25 yards or more. “We just have got to make a play on the ball in those situations and go play the ball,” coach Will Muschamp told reporters.
•ABOUT ALABAMA (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The Crimson Tide have produced 1,705 yards under new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, the highest total by an Alabama squad through three games. The focus will be on slowing down Cooper, who already has 33 receptions for 454 yards, and quarterbacks Blake Sims and Jake Coker have combined for 894 yards while completing 71.6 percent of their attempts. Alabama features the nation’s top rush defense through the first three weeks, holding opponents to 47 yards per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida P Kyle Christy won SEC special teams player of the week honors by averaging 48.7 yards per punt against the Wildcats, and leads the conference with a 48.6-yard average.... Alabama has recorded seven sacks in three games after recording just 22 last season.... The Gators have surrendered only three sacks in their past five games, dating back to last season.... Muschamp was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator at LSU and also worked with him with the Miami Dolphins. (Saban referred to him as "one of the best assistant coaches I ever had").... They last met in Muschamp's first season with the Gators in 2011, a 38-10 victory for an Alabama team that went on to win the BCS championship.
•KEY STATS
--FLORIDA is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA 36.9, OPPONENT 17.4.
--FLORIDA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA 32.5, OPPONENT 19.8.
--FLORIDA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA 33.3, OPPONENT 17.4.
--FLORIDA is 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA 31.5, OPPONENT 15.0.
--FLORIDA is 4-14 against the 1rst half line (-11.4 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 8.8, OPPONENT 9.6.
--ALABAMA is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 25.9, OPPONENT 14.3.
--ALABAMA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 39.4, OPPONENT 9.8.
--ALABAMA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 42.0, OPPONENT 17.9.
--ALABAMA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 41.5, OPPONENT 13.7.
--ALABAMA is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 28.3, OPPONENT 14.8.
--ALABAMA is 30-10 UNDER (+19.0 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 28.6, OPPONENT 10.6.
--ALABAMA is 5-18 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 12.0, OPPONENT 9.7.
--ALABAMA is 13-4 against the 1rst half line (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 22.2, OPPONENT 5.6.
--ALABAMA is 10-0 against the 1rst half line (+10.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 24.7, OPPONENT 4.1.
--ALABAMA is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 24.5, OPPONENT 4.4.
--ALABAMA is 22-7 against the 1rst half line (+14.3 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was ALABAMA 22.5, OPPONENT 5.1.
--ALABAMA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 26.8, OPPONENT 4.6.
--ALABAMA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 28.4, OPPONENT 3.0.
--ALABAMA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 23.6, OPPONENT 6.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--WILL MUSCHAMP is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of FLORIDA.
The average score was FLORIDA 27.8, OPPONENT 29.3.
--NICK SABAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SABAN 43.9, OPPONENT 7.9.
--NICK SABAN is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SABAN 32.6, OPPONENT 13.3.
--NICK SABAN is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SABAN 32.7, OPPONENT 15.2.
--NICK SABAN is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of ALABAMA.
The average score was ALABAMA 32.9, OPPONENT 10.0.
--NICK SABAN is 20-4 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SABAN 20.1, OPPONENT 7.2.
--NICK SABAN is 19-8 OVER (+10.2 Units) the 1rst half total after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SABAN 19.5, OPPONENT 8.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ALABAMA is 8-4 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1992.
--ALABAMA is 7-6 straight up against FLORIDA since 1992.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ALABAMA is 7-5 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1992.
--7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Alabama.
--Gators are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Alabama.
•RECENT TRENDS
--FLA is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
--FLA is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in September.
--Under is 4-1 in FLA last 5 road games.
--ALA is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--ALA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 5-2 in ALA Tide last 7 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 10 times, while the underdog covered the spread 0 times. *EDGE against the spread=ALABAMA. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 10 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 5 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 10 times, while the underdog covered first half line 0 times. *EDGE against first half line =ALABAMA. 5 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 (ALABAMA) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games, dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game.
(36-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 21.9, Opponent 10.5 (Total first half points scored = 32.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (47-30).
______________________________________
#363 OREGON @ #364 WASHINGTON ST
TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Oregon -23, Total: 75
Oregon's magic number seems to be 52 and it is playing with a loaded deck — especially on offense — as it visits Washington State on Saturday night in the Pac-12 opener for both teams. The No. 3 Ducks are tied for fifth in the country in scoring at 52 points per game en route to their 3-0 start and have won seven straight meetings with the Cougars by an average of 32 points while scoring 52 per game during that span. Washington State is among the most one-dimensional teams in the country as it leads the nation in passing yards and is third-worst in rushing, but could have success against a defense that is 97th in the country in passing yards allowed.
"You have to change up your looks and yet be versatile enough to play soundly versus anything," Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich told The Oregonian about the Cougars' passing attack. "They're going to take a million shots with their guys on the edges. So you have to pressure the passer and mix up the amount of pressures." The Ducks, led by Heisman Trophy hopeful Marcus Mariota, provide a balanced attack on offense. The sophomore quarterback is completing 70.4 percent of his passes while throwing eight touchdowns against zero interceptions and is one of four Oregon players who has rushed for at least 155 yards.
•ABOUT OREGON (3-0, 0-0 Pac-12): The Ducks are 10th in the country in total offense at 573.3 yards per game, with running back Byron Marshall (12 catches, 190 yards — both team highs — two touchdown receptions; average of 9.4 yards on 19 carries, one rushing TD) providing the most versatility. Mariota also has the luxury of handing off to Royce Freeman (28 rushes, 6.6 yards per carry, five touchdowns) and Thomas Tyner (35, 4.4, one) or can keep the ball himself (20, 7.8, three). The defense is led by safety Erick Dargan, who has three interceptions, while 10 players share 11 sacks, including two by linebacker Tyson Coleman.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (1-2, 0-0 Pac-12): Quarterback Connor Halliday leads the nation in several passing categories including touchdowns (12) and yards (1,465), and also completes 68 percent of his passes while attempting 58 per game. The 6-4 senior tied his own school record with six touchdown passes in the Cougars' 59-21 victory over Portland State last week, giving him 26 TD throws in his last seven contests. Six receivers have at least 10 catches with Isiah Myers leading the way with an average of 16.3 yards on 26 receptions and five touchdowns, but Washington State averages 40 rushing yards per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Mariota has thrown 71 touchdown passes in 29 career games and at least one in each contest.... Halliday set an FBS record with 89 attempts in Washington State's 62-38 loss at Oregon in 2013, completing 58 (Pac-12 record) for 557 yards (school record) and four touchdowns, but also threw four interceptions.... The Ducks lead the series 46-38-7, with the Cougars last winning 34-23 in 2006.... Oregon dropped its last two Pac-12 away dates last season to then-No. 6 Stanford and unranked Arizona.... The Ducks enter a third straight contest against the Cougars while holding the nation's No. 2 ranking.... Oregon has yielded 905 scrimmage yards to Wyoming and Michigan State, and seven plays of 30-plus yards in three games.
•KEY STATS
--OREGON is 36-14 ATS (+20.6 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 34.6, OPPONENT 27.3.
--OREGON is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 35.3, OPPONENT 26.3.
--OREGON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 41.7, OPPONENT 25.0.
--OREGON is 36-12 ATS (+22.8 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 40.1, OPPONENT 21.9.
--OREGON is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 39.7, OPPONENT 21.7.
--OREGON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 53.8, OPPONENT 21.1.
--OREGON is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) versus poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 44.7, OPPONENT 31.2.
--OREGON is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 20.2, OPPONENT 15.6.
--OREGON is 14-2 OVER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 18.1, OPPONENT 15.7.
--OREGON is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 27.9, OPPONENT 14.7.
--OREGON is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 31.7, OPPONENT 10.7.
--WASHINGTON ST is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 32.8, OPPONENT 24.8.
--WASHINGTON ST is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 33.3, OPPONENT 23.4.
--WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 19.0, OPPONENT 15.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARK HELFRICH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half as the coach of OREGON.
The average score was OREGON 53.5, OPPONENT 17.8.
--MARK HELFRICH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of OREGON.
The average score was OREGON 51.9, OPPONENT 17.3.
--MIKE LEACH is 29-9 ATS (+19.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 36.4, OPPONENT 27.2.
--MIKE LEACH is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 33.1, OPPONENT 33.8.
--MIKE LEACH is 21-6 OVER (+14.3 Units) versus incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 28.3, OPPONENT 41.0.
--MIKE LEACH is 24-6 OVER (+17.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 31.8, OPPONENT 40.0.
--MIKE LEACH is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) in home games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 23.7, OPPONENT 8.8.
--MIKE LEACH is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 16.9, OPPONENT 9.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON ST is 12-10 against the spread versus OREGON since 1992.
--OREGON is 16-6 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1992.
--10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WASHINGTON ST is 11-9 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1992.
--10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington State.
--Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--ORE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 29-12-2 in ORE last 43 games in September.
--WSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--WSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 36-14-1 in WSU last 51 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 6 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 18 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 10 times, while the favorite covered first half line 7 times. *No EDGE. 0 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
______________________________________________
#365 CLEMSON @ #366 FLORIDA ST
TV: 8:18 PM EST, ABC
Line: Florida St. -14.5, Total: 59.5
Already facing one of the biggest potential hurdles in its national title defense, Florida State will have to take on visiting Clemson with its Heisman Trophy quarterback on the bench for the first half. The top-ranked Seminoles will play the first half without Jameis Winston, who was benched for disciplinary reasons after shouting a vulgar phrase on campus Tuesday. Winston's absence opens the door for the No. 24 Tigers to claim their first victory over a top-ranked team.
The Seminoles are riding an 18-game winning streak and have won 15 straight against ACC foes, but Winston's latest off-field transgression has put them in a tough spot against a capable conference opponent. "I did something, so I've got to accept my consequences," Winston said in a press conference Wednesday. "We're going to think about moving forward and winning the game." Sophomore Sean Maguire is expected to make his first career start in place of Winston, who rolled up 444 passing yards in last year's 51-14 win at Clemson.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (1-1, 0-0 ACC): The Tigers were shut out in the second half of a season-opening 45-21 loss to Georgia, but they took out their offensive frustrations on South Carolina State two weeks ago, racking up 735 total yards in a 73-7 victory. Quarterback Cole Stoudt has passed for 446 yards and just one touchdown while no running back has more than 82 yards for the Tigers, who need some playmakers to emerge to upset the Seminoles. Clemson will look for star defensive end Vic Beasley to harass Maguire and Winston and add to his 23 career sacks, the most among active FBS players.
•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2-0, 0-0 ACC): The Seminoles have scored 30 or more points in 17 consecutive games, but that could be put to the test without their star quarterback for a half. Winston's absence also has an impact on receiver Rashad Greene, whose 283 receiving yards are the most in school history through two games. Luckily for the Seminoles, they can lean on a stout defense that has been especially strong against the pass, allowing 137.5 yards per game through the air.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida State has scored 80 more touchdowns than its opponents during its 18-game winning streak.... Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has six wins against top-10 teams, one behind Danny Ford for the most in program history.... The Seminoles are 22-0 under coach Jimbo Fisher when rushing for 200 yards or more.... Florida State hasn't had much trouble against Clemson in Tallahassee, winning 10 of 11 while outscoring the Tigers 425-167.... The Tigers are 22-10 versus the spread in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game, and 21-9 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--CLEMSON is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 27.3, OPPONENT 21.0.
--CLEMSON is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 35.4, OPPONENT 21.2.
--FLORIDA ST is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 41.4, OPPONENT 12.8.
--FLORIDA ST is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 54.0, OPPONENT 13.4.
--FLORIDA ST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 51.9, OPPONENT 11.8.
--FLORIDA ST is 2-12 against the 1rst half line (-11.2 Units) in home games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 17.2, OPPONENT 9.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--DABO SWINNEY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 34.9, OPPONENT 22.8.
--DABO SWINNEY is 18-6 ATS (+11.3 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 40.0, OPPONENT 24.5.
--DABO SWINNEY is 21-6 OVER (+14.3 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 37 points or more last game as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 23.0, OPPONENT 13.9.
--JIMBO FISHER is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite of 6 or more points versus the first half line as the coach of FLORIDA ST.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 17.7, OPPONENT 7.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CLEMSON is 14-8 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--FLORIDA ST is 16-6 straight up against CLEMSON since 1992.
--12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CLEMSON is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Florida State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--CLEM is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
--Over is 6-1 in CLEM last 7 games in September.
--FSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--FSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
--Over is 4-0 in FSU last 4 games following a bye week.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 28 times, while the favorite covered the spread 21 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 40 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 38 games went over the total, while 35 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 25 times, while the favorite covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 37 games went over first half total, while 34 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
________________________________________________
#367 VIRGINIA @ #368 BYU
TV: 3:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: BYU -15, Total: 47.5
With a pair of the swiftest legs in the country and much-improved accuracy, Brigham Young quarterback Taysom Hill has become a contender for the 2014 Heisman Trophy Award. If he wants to take the next step toward national recognition Saturday at home for the 23rd-ranked Cougars, Hill must overcome a stingy Virginia defense that picked him off late in the fourth quarter last season and converted it into a game-winning touchdown. The surprising Cavaliers, coming off a 2-10 record in 2013, played nationally-ranked UCLA tough before handing Louisville its first loss during Week #3.
Hill threw for 200 yards and ran for 160 - becoming only the 14th FBS quarterback to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards by a junior this season - as BYU jumped out to a 23-point lead against Houston on September 11th and coasted to a 33-25 victory. Despite all of his offense, the Cougars have made plenty of mistakes with 32 penalties, seven turnovers and 11 sacks allowed this season. Virginia knocked off Louisville 23-21 and is yielding 354 yards per game while averaging four sacks.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (2-1): The Cavaliers held Louisville to 282 yards, forcing four turnovers, and held UCLA and Heisman-hopeful Brett Hundley to 358 yards in a 28-20 Week #1 loss. Linebacker Henry Coley leads the team with 29 tackles, six for loss, 3.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Generating offense in the road opener could be an issue, as the Cavaliers have managed to gain only 3.3 yards per rush and quarterback Greyson Lambert is averaging fewer than 10 yards a completion with just two touchdown passes despite completing 67.7 percent of his passes.
•ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (3-0): Hill, who leads all FBS quarterbacks with six rushing TDs, was 13-of-40 for 175 yards last season as the Cougars were held to a season-low 362 yards in the 19-16 loss at Virginia, but he has improved his accuracy from 54 percent last season to 68.4 percent in 2014. Jamaal Williams, who ran for 1,233 yards last season and has 228 this year in two games, should help Hill challenge the Virginia front seven. The most pleasant surprise on defense has been a line that has been instrumental in holding rushing attacks to 54.3 yards per game and 2.1 per carry despite returning just one starter.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia has scored 44 points off turnovers this year after recording only 13 all of last season.... BYU has 13 scores (10 TDs) in 14 attempts this season in the red zone after scoring on 46-of-56 attempts with 27 touchdowns in 2013.... Virginia, which leads the series 3-1 including a 45-40 win at BYU in 1999, is 3-10 in road openers since 2001 and has lost its last five road contests overall.... BYU has outgained opponents 776-163 on the ground in winning its first three games for the first time since opening 6-0 in 2008.... This marks the Cavaliers' first road game against a ranked opponent since 2012. They have been limited to an average of 13.4 points in dropping 18 of 21 such games dating to 2000.... The Cougars are 1-9 versus the spread off a home win over the last three seasons.
•KEY STATS
--VIRGINIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA 18.9, OPPONENT 39.0.
--VIRGINIA is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA 15.9, OPPONENT 26.9.
--VIRGINIA is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA 16.2, OPPONENT 26.3.
--VIRGINIA is 39-13 UNDER (+24.7 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA 18.3, OPPONENT 24.7.
--VIRGINIA is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA 19.5, OPPONENT 24.1.
--VIRGINIA is 3-16 against the 1rst half line (-14.6 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA 8.1, OPPONENT 16.1.
--BYU is 11-26 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better since 1992.
The average score was BYU 27.3, OPPONENT 22.0.
--BYU is 56-27 UNDER (+26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was BYU 25.3, OPPONENT 25.6.
--BYU is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BYU 23.7, OPPONENT 22.5.
--BYU is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 28.1, OPPONENT 17.4.
--BYU is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BYU 21.1, OPPONENT 17.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE LONDON is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of VIRGINIA.
The average score was VIRGINIA 20.6, OPPONENT 29.5.
--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 28.2, OPPONENT 21.6.
--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 27.1, OPPONENT 17.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA is 2-1 against the spread versus BYU since 1992.
--VIRGINIA is 2-1 straight up against BYU since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--VIRGINIA is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against BYU since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--UVA is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.
--Over is 4-1 in UVA last 5 non-conference games.
--BYU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--BYU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 13-4 in BYU last 17 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 24 times, while the underdog covered the spread 12 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 36 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 26 games went under the total, while 20 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 23 times, while the underdog covered first half line 10 times. *No EDGE. 28 games went under first half total, while 18 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (BYU) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning.
(69-31 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.0%, +34.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 23.4, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 42.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 44 (44% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-13).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (80-46).
_____________________________________
#379 MISSISSIPPI ST @ #380 LSU
TV: 7:05 PM EST, ESPN
Line: LSU -9, Total: 49.5
Eighth-ranked LSU looks to continue its dominance over Mississippi State when it opens South Eastern Conference action against the visiting Bulldogs on Saturday evening. The Tigers have won 14 straight and 21 of 22 against Mississippi State -- including all nine under coach Les Miles -- and turned a close game into a 59-26 rout a year ago with 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU aims to extend its shutout streak after blanking two straight opponents and putting up 108 consecutive points since falling behind 24-7 in a season-opening victory over Wisconsin.
Mississippi State has won six straight dating to last season -- its longest streak since winning nine in a row from November 26th, 2011, to October 20th, 2012 -- but is beginning a stretch of three straight games against teams ranked in the top eight. "If you enjoy competition, you enjoy this division, because week in and week out you're going to play a team that is nationally ranked, a team that can play for the championship," Miles told reporters. The Tigers have won 11 straight overall at home and haven't lost to the Bulldogs at home since 1991.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The Bulldogs have put up 131 points through three games -- their most since scoring 146 in the first three contests in 1944 -- but will face a much stiffer defense this week. Quarterback Dak Prescott is a legitimate dual threat, though, and has topped 100 yards rushing in the past two games. The defense, led by linebacker Benardrick McKinney and defensive end Preston Smith, has turned in two impressive efforts but was shaky in a 47-34 win over Alabama-Birmingham on September 6th.
•ABOUT LSU (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The Tigers rank among the nation's best in just about every defensive category and have been especially tough against the pass, sporting the country's top pass defense efficiency rating of 59.5. The defense has overshadowed the offense, but quarterback Anthony Jennings has shown well as the new starter, passing for 566 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. Kenny Hilliard (215 yards, 3 TDs) leads a stable of capable running backs, and wide receiver Travin Dural (12 catches, 370 yards, 4 TDs) has emerged as an explosive playmaker.
•PREGAME NOTES: LSU's defense has not allowed points in opponents' last 31 possessions, spanning nine quarters.... Mississippi State has topped 500 yards of total offense in four consecutive games for the first time in school history.... The Tigers are 34-3 in September under Miles, including a 23-1 mark at home.... The Tigers have yielded just 94 passing yards per game in their victories against Wisconsin, Sam Houston State and Louisiana-Monroe. Quarterbacks from those three teams have combined to complete a mere 40 percent of passing attempts with no touchdowns and four interceptions.
•KEY STATS
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 26.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 19-4 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 16.0, OPPONENT 9.7.
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-2 against the 1rst half line (+10.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 23.7, OPPONENT 8.6.
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 17.3, OPPONENT 12.0.
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 4 to 6 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 6.1, OPPONENT 7.3.
--LSU is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was LSU 22.8, OPPONENT 19.2.
--LSU is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was LSU 16.9, OPPONENT 8.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--DAN MULLEN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 2 straight non-conference games as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 23.0, OPPONENT 13.8.
--DAN MULLEN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 21.8, OPPONENT 19.0.
--DAN MULLEN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 25.3, OPPONENT 18.6.
--DAN MULLEN is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 13.0, OPPONENT 23.0.
--DAN MULLEN is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 17.8, OPPONENT 14.8.
--LES MILES is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after a 2 game home stand as the coach of LSU.
The average score was LSU 28.8, OPPONENT 20.0.
--LES MILES is 24-9 against the 1rst half line (+14.1 Units) after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game as the coach of LSU.
The average score was LSU 16.9, OPPONENT 6.2.
--LES MILES is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after allowing 175 or less total yards in their previous game as the coach of LSU.
The average score was LSU 16.5, OPPONENT 3.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LSU is 18-4 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
--LSU is 21-1 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--LSU is 16-4 versus the first half line when playing against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.
--Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Louisiana State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSST is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--MSST is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 7-3 in MSST last 10 games in September.
--LSU is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win.
--Over is 11-5 in LSU last 16 games on grass.
--Under is 5-2 in LSU last 7 games following a S.U. win.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 42 times, while the underdog covered the spread 19 times. *EDGE against the spread =LSU. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 56 times, while the underdog won straight up 7 times. 56 games went under the total, while 33 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 34 times, while the underdog covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 62 games went under first half total, while 26 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - with an incredible defense - allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning.
(52-20 since 1992.) (72.2%, +30.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 52
The average score in these games was: Team 25.6, Opponent 20.4 (Total points scored = 46)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (53.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
________________________________________________
#387 MIAMI @ #388 NEBRASKA
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN2
Line: Nebraska -7.5, Total: 55.5
Despite only a 10-game history, the rivalry between Miami (Fla.) and Nebraska may be one of the most significant in college football in the last 30 years. From the Hurricanes upsetting the Cornhuskers in 1984 for their first national title to their most recent clash in the 2002 Rose Bowl that brought Miami its last national championship, many of the matchups had national title implications. That might not be the case this time, though both programs would love a win in their latest meeting, hosted by the No. 22 Cornhuskers on Saturday evening in Lincoln.
The Cornhuskers are one of only two unbeatens left in the Big Ten, which has been seen as down this year, a contention that would be proven even more with a Nebraska loss at home to Miami. The Hurricanes aren't back to their swagger of the glory days, but coach Al Golden sees his program on the upswing, and a road victory against a nationally ranked opponent certainly would be a step in the right direction. Each team features a dynamic offensive player — Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett and Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah — which should make this an exciting game throughout.
•ABOUT MIAMI (FLA.) (2-1): Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya will be making his second start in a road game for the Hurricanes in a very hostile environment in Lincoln. Kaaya has seven touchdowns in his three games at the helm for Miami but also five interceptions, though Golden says he's not too concerned about the signal-caller's turnovers. “We know five interceptions is not ideal, but as coaches we look at how it transpired,” Golden said. “There's nothing about him right now that's gun-shy, nor should there be. He's a guy who wants to execute and wants to let it rip.”
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (3-0): Through three games this season, the Cornhuskers have nine plays of 40 yards or more, compared to nine such plays for all of 2013. Coach Bo Pelini said his team isn't looking for the big play more than usual, but it has been available to the offense. “Sometimes you want to take what you want,” Pelini said. “But sometimes if a team is playing you a certain way, and there are big plays to be had, you're going to take them.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Dorsett became the first receiver in the nation this season with three catches of at least 50 yards in the same game against Arkansas State last week, and became the first ACC player with two touchdown catches of at least 60 yards in the same game since 2011.... Abdullah had 110 all-purpose yards against Fresno State last week, moving him past Mike Rozier and into second place in the school's career all-purpose yards list. Abdullah is just 141 yards behind all-time leader Johnny Rodgers.... The last five matchups between these two programs have been in bowl games, with the winner being crowned national champion after four of those contests.
•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 41.4, OPPONENT 30.0.
--MIAMI is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) versus excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 16.9, OPPONENT 9.7.
--MIAMI is 7-22 against the 1rst half line (-17.2 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 13.0, OPPONENT 8.6.
--NEBRASKA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games versus good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was NEBRASKA 35.6, OPPONENT 20.3.
--NEBRASKA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was NEBRASKA 32.0, OPPONENT 17.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--AL GOLDEN is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) off a home win in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was GOLDEN 29.4, OPPONENT 23.8.
--AL GOLDEN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 38.0, OPPONENT 28.6.
--BO PELINI is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of NEBRASKA.
The average score was NEBRASKA 28.1, OPPONENT 22.4.
--BO PELINI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of NEBRASKA.
The average score was NEBRASKA 27.1, OPPONENT 21.8.
--BO PELINI is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of NEBRASKA.
The average score was NEBRASKA 12.0, OPPONENT 16.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEBRASKA is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--NEBRASKA is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MIAMI is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against NEBRASKA since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIA is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--MIA is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
--Over is 8-3 in MIA last 11 games in September.
--NEB is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--NEB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
--Under is 4-1 in NEB last 5 versus ACC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 43 times, while the underdog covered the spread 19 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEBRASKA. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 58 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 30 games went under the total, while 29 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 37 times, while the underdog covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 30 games went under first half total, while 29 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
_______________________________________________
#389 OKLAHOMA @ #390 W VIRGINIA
TV: 7:30 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Oklahoma -7.5, Total: 65
When fourth-ranked Oklahoma opens Big 12 Conference play Saturday with a trip to rowdy West Virginia, coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners will be looking to follow the same blueprint from a season ago to keep the potent Mountaineers offense and their fans at bay. Oklahoma ran for 316 yards and possessed the ball for 34 minutes, holding the fast-paced, dynamic Mountaineers to their lowest point total since the 2010 finale in the 16-7 victory. “A very hostile and rude environment,” said Sooners receiver Durron Neal, who played in the 50-49 win in Morgantown in 2012. “Very disrespectful fan base. They’re going to be prepared to say some nasty, mean things."
West Virginia will be more formidable this season with the much-improved Clint Trickett, who is completing 75 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with seven touchdowns against one interception. "The rapport between Clint and the receivers is much better than last season, and the offensive line is protecting better," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "We're just in a much better place than last season." The Sooners' defense, however, which led the Big 12 in total defense last season, will provide a stern challenge.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (3-0): The Sooners enter with a seven-game winning streak – the second-longest active run in FBS – but will be forced to execute the gameplan without the injured Keith Ford (fractured fibula against Tennessee) and his team-high 194 yards and six TDs. Freshman Samaje Perine and Alex Ross will see the majority of the action in the backfield, but quarterback Trevor Knight - who threw for 308 yards in a 34-10 victory over Tennessee last week -and Sterling Shepard - who has recorded 286 receiving yards the last two weeks - could play bigger roles. The Sooners defense has held each of its first three opponents under 18 points for the first time in five years, recorded five sacks against Tennessee and ranks third in FBS with six interceptions.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (2-1): The Mountaineers snapped the ball a school-record 108 times last week in a 40-37 triumph over Maryland, with Trickett passing for 511 yards - second-most in school history - and four TDs, but West Virginia lost the turnover battle, committed three errors on special teams and converted just 2-of-5 trips into the red zone. West Virginia managed just 65 plays in the loss to Oklahoma last year, but Trickett was the backup then and did not play. The Mountaineers can't stop the run, yielding 451 yards and six per carry against their two FBS foes, and recorded just six sacks while forcing only two turnovers.
•PREGAME NOTES: West Virginia CB Daryl Worley, who has made 17 tackles and two interceptions this season, has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules and will not play.... In eight career starts, Knight has completed 59 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.... The Sooners have outscored their opponents 55-0 in the first quarter this season.... Trickett's 1,224 yards for the season rank third in the FBS, and the team's 1,693 yards rank ninth in the country even with Alabama among its opponents.... West Virginia is 6-12 in conference play since joining the Big 12, while Oklahoma's seven-game winning streak ranks second in the country to Florida State's 18-game run.
•KEY STATS
--OKLAHOMA is 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 30.6, OPPONENT 21.5.
--OKLAHOMA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 21.9, OPPONENT 9.4.
--OKLAHOMA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 21.9, OPPONENT 9.4.
--OKLAHOMA is 36-17 OVER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 23.1, OPPONENT 11.3.
--W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 23.7, OPPONENT 44.4.
--W VIRGINIA is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) in home games versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 33.1, OPPONENT 30.3.
--W VIRGINIA is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.9, OPPONENT 35.4.
W VIRGINIA is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses -allowing <=2.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 9.6, OPPONENT 17.2.
--W VIRGINIA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 16.4, OPPONENT 32.3.
--W VIRGINIA is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 16.8, OPPONENT 27.6.
--W VIRGINIA is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 16.8, OPPONENT 27.6.
--W VIRGINIA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 16.4, OPPONENT 32.3.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BOB STOOPS is 11-24 ATS (-15.3 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of OKLAHOMA.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 34.3, OPPONENT 19.6.
--BOB STOOPS is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of OKLAHOMA.
The average score was OKLAHOMA 37.5, OPPONENT 28.0.
--DANA HOLGORSEN is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) as the coach of W VIRGINIA.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 19.6, OPPONENT 25.0.
--DANA HOLGORSEN is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of W VIRGINIA.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 12.6, OPPONENT 30.6.
--DANA HOLGORSEN 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game as the coach of W VIRGINIA.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 16.5, OPPONENT 28.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 3-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA since 1992.
--OKLAHOMA is 2-1 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKLA is 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--OKLA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Over is 4-1-1 in OKLA last 6 conference games.
--WVU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--WVU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--Under is 5-1 in WVU last 6 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 35 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 44 times, while the underdog won straight up 19 times. 20 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 33 times, while the underdog covered first half line 29 times. *No EDGE. 21 games went under first half total, while 14 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (OKLAHOMA) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games, in conference games.
(74-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +37.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29
The average first half score in these games was: Team 23.1, Opponent 11.5 (Total first half points scored = 34.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-18).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (138-104).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (164-141).
________________________________________
w-thumbs!^
