Week 3 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
(8 ) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers (+11.5, 63.5)
* Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has gone without an interception in 10 of his last 11 games, throwing 28 touchdowns with just two INTs over that span. Oklahoma State has recorded a defensive score in each of its first two games this season.
* Pittsburgh has averaged 36:25 in time of possession through two games, the sixth-highest rate in the nation. The Panthers haven't beaten a top-10 opponent at home since 2003, but upset then-No. 2 Clemson as a road dog last season.
LINE HISTORY: Most oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as about 13.5-point road favorites against the Panthers. They moved as high as -14.5, but since then it has been mostly Pittsburgh money, with the line coming all the way down to the current number of Oklahoma State -11.5. The total hit the board at 65.5 and has moved down two points to 63.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma State's last four road games.
* Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
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Air Force Falcons at (7) Michigan Wolverines (-23, 50)
* No team spreads carries around like the Falcons, who had 17 players with at least one rush attempt in their season-opening win over VMI. Air Force held its opponent to 95 total yards, the second-lowest total in school history.
* Michigan's starting offensive line has a 37-pound advantage over the Falcons' starting defensive line by average player weight. Safety Tyree Kinnel won conference player-of-the-week honors with nine tackles and a sack vs. Cincinnati.
LINE HISTORY: Michigan hit the board as hefty 26-point home chalk, but it has been mostly Air Force money since then, with the line moving down three points to the current number of Wolverines -23. The total has been a bit of a roller coaster. Since opening at 53.5 it went down all the way to 47, before bouncing back up to an even 50. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Air Force's last six game vs. Big Ten opponents.
* Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Air Force is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
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(23) Tennessee Volunteers at (25) Florida Gators (-4, 48.5)
* Volunteers RB John Kelly is the only player in the SEC to lead his team in rushing yards (208) and receptions (10). Tennessee's defense held Indiana State (0-for-11) without a third-down conversion last week.
* Florida ranks last in the FBC in rushing yards per game (11) following a 33-17 season-opening loss to Michigan. The Gators are still without nine players, including WR Antonio Callaway, who were suspended due to off-the-field issues.
LINE HISTORY: Florida opened as 5-point home faves and were bet to -5.5, but since then it has come back down to the current number of -4. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down slightly to 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
* Florida is 1-4 in its last five games in September.
* Over is 6-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in Tennessee's last nine games vs. SEC opponents.
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Southern Methodist Mustangs at (20) Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-20, 64.5)
* SMU's 112 points through two games in the most in school history. The Mustangs are one of only nine FBS teams averaging more than 300 passing yards and 170 rushing yards per game.
* TCU has allowed just seven points to date, the fewest it has surrendered through the first two games of the season since 2012. The Horned Frogs rank fourth in the nation in yards allowed per game (166.5).
LINE HISTORY: TCU hit the board at most shops as 18-point home faves and bettors like the Horned Frogs in this matchup, moving the line to the current number of -20. The total has yet to move off the opening line of 64.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* SMU is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* TCU is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.
* Over is 4-0 in SMU's last four road games.
* Under is 5-1 in TCU's last six games overall.
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(12) Wisconsin Badgers at Brigham Young Cougars (+16.5, 40.5)
* Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor leads the nation's true freshmen in rushing yards per game (155) and touchdowns (four). Wisconsin is one of eight FBS teams yet to allow a point in the second half of games so far this season.
* BYU's 23 wins over Power 5 opponents are tied for the most of any non-Power 5 school over the past 14 years. The Cougars have had 12 different receivers catch at least one pass in 2017.
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers hit the board as roughly 13-point favorites at most sportsbooks and shot all the way up to -17. The current number is Wisconsin -16.5. The total opened at 41 and is down slightly to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* BYU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Wisconsin's last five road games.
* Under is 13-3 in BYU's last 16 games overall.
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(2) Clemson Tigers at (14) Louisville Cardinals (+3, 58)
* Clemson has won all three meetings with Louisville, with each game decided by six points or fewer. The Tigers are 40-1 under head coach Dabo Swinney when rushing for 200 or more yards.
* Louisville has racked up at least 450 yards of total offense in six straight home games. QB Lamar Jackson has accounted for 1,010 yards and eight touchdowns through two games; he had 1,015 yards and 13 scores at this time in 2016.
LINE HISTORY: The Tigers and their elite defense opened this game favored by a field goal despite being on the road. They were briefly at -3.5 before coming back to the opening number. The total hit the board at 56 and has moved up two points to the current number of 58. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. ACC opponents.
* Louisville is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.
* Over is 5-0 in its last five road games.
* Over is 5-2 in Louisville's last six games in September.
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(16) Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (+22, 60.5)
* A year after finishing in the top three nationally in third-down conversion defense, the Hokies rank 19th through two games at 26.3 percent. Josh Jackson's 557 total yards are the most for a Virginia tech QB in his first two starts since at least 1987.
* The Pirates reassigned defensive coordinator Kenwick Thompson following last week's 56-20 thumping at the hands of West Virginia. East Carolina surrendered an average of 615.5 yards per game in its two season-opening losses.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hokies as 22-point road chalk, but they were quickly bet down as far as -18. Since then though, the line has returned to the opening number. The total opened at 60.5 dropped to 58.5 before coming back to the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Virginia Tech's last 11 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in ECU's last four games vs. ACC opponents.
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Army Back Knights at (9) Ohio State Buckeyes (-30, 53)
* The Black Knights have converted nine of their 10 red-zone trips into touchdowns through two games. Army has also outscored foes 44-0 in the second half so far in 2017.
* Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett is just 1-for-18 on passes longer than 20 yards dating back to 2016. Ohio State is 5-1 coming off a loss in the Urban Meyer era, prevailing by an average of nearly 29 points in the five victories.
LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as a healthy 29.5-point home favorite in this matchup and have been bet up slightly to the current number of -30. The total opened at 52.5 and has moved up slightly to the current number of 53. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Army is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after allowing 20 points or less in its previous game.
* Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Under is 5-2 in Army's last seven road games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ohio State's last seven home games.
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Oregon State Beavers at (22) Washington State Cougars (-21, 65.5)
* Freshman LB David Morris erupted for 17 tackles against Minnesota last week, the most by a Beaver since 2010. Oregon State is averaging 356.7 yards through three games, the lowest rate in the Pac-12.
* Washington State leads the Pac-12 conference in passes (89) and attempts (115) while ranking second in passing yards per game (397). LB Peyton Pueller had 14 tackles and an interception return for a TD in last week's win over Boise State.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers pegged the Cougars as about 18-point home favorites, but bettors didn't think that was enough, moving the line as high as Cougars -21.5, before coming down to the current number of -21. The total hit the board at 63 and bettors like the Over, moving the number up to 65.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Oregon State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Pac-12 opponents.
* Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five gaes overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Oregon State's last six games ater scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
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Tulane Green Wave at (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-35, 55)
* The Green Wave is one of 11 FBS teams that have yet to allow a turnover so far in 2017. Tulane has surpassed 100 rushing yards in 17 consecutive games dating back to 2015.
* Sooners QB Baker Mayfield has thrown 30 touchdowns against just three interceptions over his last nine games. Oklahoma has completed 36 passes of 10 or more yards, tied for third-most in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Sooners as 34-point home favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of Oklahoma -35. The total opened at 57.5 and bettors like the Under, moving the number to 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Tulane's last four non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Oklahoma's last six home games.
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Colorado State Rams at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 54.5)
* Rams QB Nick Stevens leads the FBS in passing yards (985) and has broken the 300-yard barrier in four straight games. The Colorado State defense has forced nine turnovers through three games, including seven interceptions.
* Alabama has held opponents below 200 total yards in 44 of 127 games since the start of the 2008 season. The Crimson Tide improved to 93-5 over that span when rushing for 140 or more yards, racking up 305 in last week's win over Fresno State.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the No. 1 ranked Crimson Tide as 27-point home chalk and they have been bet up to the current number of Alabama -28.5. The total opened at 53.5 and has been bet up to 54.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Colorado State's last six games in September.
* Under is 6-1 in Alabama's last seven non-conference games.
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(11) Louisiana State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7.5, 55)
* The Tigers have allowed just one touchdown over their previous three games. LSU hasn't lost a fumble on a rushing attempt since last season against Florida, a stretch of 218 carries and counting.
* The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SEC in scoring defense (10.5), first in passing yards allowed per game (89) and third in tackles for loss (16). SMU is one of only three Power 5 teams yet to allow a sack.
LINE HISTORY: LSU opened as l6.5-point road faves over Mississippi State and bettors have pushed the Tigers to -7.5. The total hit the board at 52.5 and got as high as 56.5, before coming back down to the current number of 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Mississippi State.
* Over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last five games vs. SEC opponents.
* Under is 5-1-2 in LSU's last eight games following a SU win.
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(18) Kansas State Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5, 49.5)
* Kansas State allowed just 59 passing yards last week vs. Charlotte, its lowest total since 2000. The Wildcats have gone six games without throwing an interception, their longest such streak in five years.
* The Commodores rank first in the nation in red-zone defense and opponent third-down conversion rate, and second in scoring defense. Their +64 scoring margin through the first two games is their best over that stretch since 1970.
LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats opened this matchup favored by a field goal on the road, were bet as high as -4.5, before coming back down to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 48 and got as high 52.5, before coming back down to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall
* Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 7-1 in Kansas State's last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Vanderbilt's last five home games.
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Georgia State at (5) Penn State Nittany Lions (-37, 55.5)
* Saturday's game marks the Bulldogs' first game on natural grass since 2015. QB Conner Manning's 82.4-percent completion rate in the season opener vs. Tennessee State was the highest in school history.
* Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley has thrown a touchdown passes in a school-record 17 consecutive games. RB Saquon Treadwell has scored in nine straight games, tied for the longest active streak in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Penn State as big 38.5-point home chalk for this matchup and bettors thought it was a few points too many, moving the line to the current nuber of -37. The total hit the board at 53.5 and has moved up a point and a half to the current number of 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Penn State is 10-0-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Georgia State in its last five road games.
* Over is 14-6 in Penn State's last 20 games overall.
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Texas Longhorns at (4) USC Trojans (-15.5, 67.5)
* The Longhorns already have four non-offensive touchdowns after recording zero all of last season. Saturday’s win over San Jose State marked the fifth time since 1943 that Texas has had 600+ yards of offense while allowing less than 200.
* The Trojans have generated at least 400 yards of total offense in 12 consecutive games. USC is 18-10-1 all-time against current members of the Big 12, including a perfect 3-0 mark vs. Texas.
LINE HISTORY: The Trojans opened as 17-point favorites and have bounced back and forth between that and Trojans -15 for most of the week. The number is currently -15.5. The total opened at 67 and is up slightly to 67.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five ganes overall.
* USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
* Under is 8-1 in Texas' last nine games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in USC's last four games overall.
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Fresno State Bulldogs at (6) Washington Huskies (-33, 56.5)
* The Bulldogs have committed just four penalties through their first two games, second-fewest in Division I. Fresno State has also turned the ball over just once, after committing 18 turnovers last season.
* Fresh off leading the nation in turnovers a season ago, the Huskies are already at a +5 turnover differential through two games. Washington is 29-11 all-time against current members of the Mountain West Conference.
LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as big 33-point home favorites and the line has yet to move off that number. The total opened at 54.5 and has moved up to points to 56.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. Pac-12 opponents.
* Washington is 4-1 in its last five games vs. MWC opponents.
* Under is 4-1 in Fresno State's last five games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Washington's last seven games overall.
San Jose State Spartans at (24) Utah Utes (26, 59.5)
* Spartans linebacker Frank Ginda leads Division I in total tackles (42) and ranks second in per-game average (14). San Jose State has committed five turnovers in its two losses, leading to 28 total points against.
* The Utes sit atop the Pac-12 and rank 12th nationally in average rushing yards against (59), while allowing the fewest first downs in the conference (25). Tyler Huntley ranks eighth among Division I QBs at 79.5 rushing yards per game.
LINE HISTORY: The Utes opened as healthy 26-point home faves in this matchup. They were bet up to Utah -27 before coming back down to the opening number. The total hit the board at 56 and bettors love the Over here, moving the number three and a half points to the current number of 59.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. MWC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in San Jose State's last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Utah's last five games overall.
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(19) Stanford Cardinal at San Diego State Aztecs (+8.5, 48.5)
* The Cardinal have won the time of possession battle in 28 of their last 35 games. RB Bryce Love is the first player in school history with more than 100 rushing yards in each of his first four career starts.
* RB Rashaad Penny ranks second in the nation in rushing yards (413) and is the only player in Division I with a rushing, receiving and return TD in the same game. The Aztecs have forced five fumbles over their first two games.
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the Cardinal as 9-point road faves and they got as high as -9.5, but since then the number has come back down to Stanford -8.5. The total opened a 45.5 and has seen all over money, moving up three points to the current number of 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Stanford is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU loss.
* San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-1 in Stanford's last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in San Diego State's last four games following a ATS win.