Reacting (not overreacting) is valuable advice heading into college football Week 2
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
Full disclosure: I’m as guilty as the next person of repeatedly violating the piece of advice that I’m about to impart upon you. It’s completely within the boundaries of fair play to say that I’m utilizing this week’s lede to serve a dual purpose: a selfish reminder to myself as well as a public service announcement to you, our loyal readers.
Do not, under any circumstances whatsoever, overreact to what you saw transpire during college football’s opening weekend.
That’s not to say that the 50-47 upset Charlie Strong’s Texas Longhorns put on Notre Dame Saturday night is completely without any substantive or predictive value. If nothing else, Texas emphatically demonstrated that they are more than worthy of a position within the Associated Press Top-25. But to go from unranked the previous week to No. 11 this week based on a 3-point home victory? That may fall within the constructs of a slight overreaction, even if the opponent was Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish.
You could express a similar sentiment in regards to LSU’s fall from No. 5 to No. 21 based on its 16-14 defeat at the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday at Lambeau Field. Perhaps the Tigers and their utter disgrace of an aerial attack aren’t worthy of top-5 consideration, but do you really feel that running back Leonard Fournette and the LSU defense are worse than 20 other programs in America?
Which brings us back to our initial point: There’s reacting, and then there’s overreacting. Do not allow yourself to succumb to the hypnotizing effects emitted from the latter.
Fun fact: Speaking of LSU and it’s anemic passing game - did you know that since 2009, Army, Navy, Air Force and New Mexico are the only schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision to throw for fewer yards than LSU?
Unreal.
But I digress from my original point of emphasis, which was to make sure we don’t put too much weight upon the results that came across the wire last weekend.
“We made a few changes. Houston is a mover, for example,” Jay Rood, Vice President of Race & Sports for MGM International told us when asked how the first week of the college football season affected his power rankings. “However, we aren’t willing to overreact, as many of the big-name teams that lost last weekend are more than capable of getting back into the championship picture rather quickly with the right win coupled with some losses sustained by their competitors.”
This brings us to the crown jewel of college football’s opening weekend, which was a highly touted showdown between two historic programs-turned-Game of Thrones-style bludgeoning as the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide annihilated No. 20 USC 52-6 in front of 81,000+ sets of wide eyes and dropped jaws. The victory moved Nick Saban to a perfect 10-0 lifetime in Week 1 as the head coach at Alabama, while the loss sustained by the Trojans served as the program’s most lopsided defeat in more than 50 years.
In the aftermath, Alabama moved from a 25.5-point favorite for Saturday’s home opener against Western Kentucky to a current position of -29, while the Men of Troy were bet from -16.5 to -16 for their Week 2 matchup with Utah State.
Once again, don’t overreact. Especially when it comes to Alabama.
Why? Let’s begin with the fact that after establishing itself as the country’s preeminent powerhouse, the Crimson Tide have nothing significant left to prove this weekend against Western Kentucky. Additionally, take a close look at the Alabama schedule and you’ll notice a road date against an Ole Miss team, that has defeated the Tide in each of the last two seasons, looms large just seven days after the Western Kentucky encounter. So it’s not outside the realm of possibility to assume offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will execute a relatively vanilla game plan against the Hilltoppers in order to keep Mississippi off balance heading into their marquee SEC West showdown.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, so try this one on for size: Did you know that Alabama is 0-8 against the spread over its last eight non-conference matchups when favored by 24 or more points? Not only that, but the Tide have a history of taking their foot off the gas pedal the week after winning a marquee showdown. Always circled as the biggest game of the regular season, Alabama is 4-0 straight-up over the last four years against hated rival LSU. But in the week after those four victories, the Tide have gone just 3-1 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread.
React to what you watched last weekend because you are human. Avoid overreacting to what you watched last weekend because you’re trying to make money.
SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER
Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.
This week we speak with Jay Rood, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the Vice President of Race & Sports for MGM Resorts International.
Biggest adjustments to championship odds following Week 1: “We cut Alabama down to 6/5 in a hurry, but have not taken any sharp action on the Crimson Tide in the wake of that move.”
Week 2 sharp action: “The sharps have been betting Texas Tech (+4 at Arizona State), New Mexico (-11 at New Mexico State) and Alabama (opened -25.5 vs. Western Kentucky.”
Week 2 public action: “Two teams stand out above all else here, and those are Michigan (-35.5 vs. Central Florida) and Alabama (now -29.5 vs. Western Kentucky).”
Which teams do you feel are currently overvalued in the betting market: “Houston, Clemson and TCU.”
Which teams do you feel are currently undervalued in the betting market: “South Carolina and Tennessee.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
Behind a staggering 329 rushing yards spread out across eight different ball carriers, the Army Black Knights upset the Temple Owls 28-13 in Philadelphia last Saturday despite entering the game as 14.5-point underdogs.
But beware of those aforementioned Week 1 overreactions, because recent history does not bode well for Army. Since 2010, the Black Knights are an unbelievable 0-18 straight-up and 4-14 against the spread when coming off a win.
Army is currently listed as a 10-point favorite for Saturday’s home showdown against the Rice Owls.
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Ohio Bobcats (-2 to +3) at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak with last weekend’s 55-6 destruction of Rhode Island, but the Jayhawks haven’t notched back-to-back victories since 2011. Be weary of the Bobcats in this spot, as MAC schools are just 5-18 ATS over their last 23 outings when coming off a loss to face a Big 12 opponent.
South Florida Bulls (-11 to -15) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in four straight games and is just 3-10 ATS over its last 13 games played on a grass surface, while head coach Willie Taggart has something special cooking at South Florida, as the Bulls are 8-1-1 ATS over their last ten contests played on a grass surface.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-25.5 to -29) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Be very careful with the Tide in this one because Ole Miss is on deck and Bama is 0-8 ATS over its last eight non-conference matchups as a favorite of 24 or more points. Also, be advised that Western Kentucky is 16-5 ATS over its last 21 games after allowing fewer than 20 points in the previous contest.
Miami Hurricanes (-21.5 to -25) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: Mark Richt’s Miami debut went swimmingly thanks to a casual 70-3 rout of Florida A&M last Saturday. Those who weren’t hot on the Hurricanes entering 2016 are now jumping on board. Give the former Georgia boss three years and Miami will once again be a championship contender.
Duke Blue Devils (-7 to -4.5) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Interesting line move when you consider the fact that Duke has covered the number in five straight bouts with the Demon Deacons. Something stinks here.
HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH
Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Opening odds listed in parenthesis.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 5/1 (5/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 5/1 (7/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 6/1 (12/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 7/1 (6/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 10/1 (10/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 12/1 (12/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 12/1 (30/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 12/1 (25/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 20/1 (30/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 20/1 (50/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 25/1 (10/1)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: 25/1 (15/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 30/1 (30/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 30/1 (20/1)
Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss: 40/1 (12/1)
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor: 40/1 (12/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 40/1 (20/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 40/1 (40/1)
Dakota Prukop, QB, Oregon: 40/1 (40/1)
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 40/1 (100/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 60/1 (20/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 60/1 (50/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 60/1 (50/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 60/1 (50/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 80/1 (40/1)
Jalen Hurd, RB, Tennessee: 80/1 (40/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 80/1 (80/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 100/1 (30/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 100/1 (50/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 100/1 (80/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 100/1 (80/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 100/1 (100/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 100/1 (100/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 300/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 300/1 (100/1)
