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CFL
Long Sheet


Week 7

Saturday, August 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA (1 - 4) at CALGARY (4 - 1) - 8/9/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road lined games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 
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CFL

Week 7


Trend Report

Saturday, August 9

7:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Ottawa's last 15 games
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Calgary is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
 
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Yonkers: Saturday 8/9 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 235 - 684 / $1227.20 BEST BETS: 41 - 56 / $131.30

Best Bet: NOB HILL HIGH (4th)

Spot Play: P H SUPERCAM (6th)



Race 1

(5) AMERICAN RAGE closed with plenty of pace after having no chance chasing a soft pace; any sort of live trip can take this. (1) ITS A GOOD THING has speed, the best draw and the veteran is clearly feeling good again. (3) ONE AND ONLY drops in class off a rather flat effort; barn is going well now.

Race 2

(3) ETHAN HANOVER returns locally off two solid efforts at The Meadowlands; streaky gelding should have some more good efforts in the tank. (1) HOKURI HANDRAIL N has been showing steady improvement for Vallee. (4) GOBAN can be a speed threat from this spot.

Race 3

(1) GAMBLER'S TALE had little to offer last week from a tough spot upon dropping to this level; veteran can show more tonight. (2) BUBBIE BOY drops, gets post relief and was Stalbaum's choice over the morning-line favorite. (5) HYPNOTIST couldn't reach last out; prior two efforts were solid.

Race 4

(2) NOB HILL HIGH finds a pretty soft field of NW18000 types and he should flaunt his class from this spot. (3) OURCULLENSCROWN N has missed some time but he fits with these and the Vallee-trained stock has been much better recently. (6) IDEAL CHAMP should definitely be forwardly placed tonight.

Race 5

(4) DELAWARE HANOVER has flashed solid speed in his last two local starts but lacked late stamina; maybe Carlson can coax more out of him tonight. (3) RU READY TO ROCK has more than proven himself at this level; big threat. (5) HI HO STEVERINO hails from live connections and he's capable of landing a small share.

Race 6

(6) P H SUPERCAM was too far back to threaten YET again last week; perhaps tonight's the night that Bartlett leaves with him. (4) THE REAL ONE rode the rail and was never a threat in last; I do think he has the ability to compete with these. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY took last week off after a solid, well driven victory.

Race 7

(7) RAMPAGE JACKSON returns to Bartlett and he may well be firing from the gate tonight; watch the board. (5) ROCK ON MOE is up in class off an easy win and he was a fringe Levy player earlier this year. (8) FAMEOUS WESTERN is razor-sharp but this is a very tough spot tonight; maybe he can spice up the triple.

Race 8

(4) FAT MANS ALLEY must be lazy because he needs constant urging and attention but he sure is fast when he needs to be; veteran looks best of these. (5) SOURCE OF PRIDE needed last week's race at Saratoga and he should be tighter tonight. (8) SMOOTH CRIMINAL is stuck outside again but he's capable of a big rally.

Race 9

(4) GRAB A CRAB lacks the class of others but he's sharp and he picks up Carlson. (7) TALKING BLUES wired these last week from the two hole; move outside could hurt. (2) MACERLEAN should be more involved from this spot.

Race 10

(4) TARPON HANOVER was an upset winner four back when Carlson drove; Surick trainee looks as capable as any in here. (3) HANG TEN hails from Burke, has Brennan driving and he may be cutting the mile. (6) CASIMIR JITTERBUG blasted from the eight hole at a million to one last week and didn't tire that badly; Sears drives tonight.

Race 11

(1) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP held his ground pretty well on Hambletonian day versus Sweet Lou; it's safe to say he's the one to beat from this spot. (2) STATESMAN N has a good history of solid efforts over this surface. (4) ALLSTAR LEGEND returns locally for Burke and he looks like a player.

Race 12

(4) FRIDAY AT FIVE has raced pretty well in all his recent efforts and he gets the call in this wide-open finale. (3) SKY IS THE LIMIT gets some class and post relief. (6) RIVER RUN FOR RYAN steps up off a race he probably should have won; tough to endorse for the top spot but he's more than capable of hitting the ticket.
 
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Mohawk: Saturday 8/9 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (1st)

Spot Play: THUNDER SEELSTER (8th)



Race 1

(1) SHAMBALLA has won three straight impressively with his sizzling late kick, gets the rail and remains at this same level. (7) STEADY WARRIOR recently entered the McNair barn following a private purchase and may offer a price. (6) COBBLE BEACH has been racing very consistently as of late and once again poses as a main threat in this class.


Race 2

(6) MINESTRE HANOVER has won back-to-back races at this level for trainer Nixon. (1) BUDDYS HOPE enters the Beelby barn, has been very consistent this season and is capable of the class jump. (8) SUMMONS has hit the board in each of his last two starts and comes from a high percentage barn. He'll offer a low price and is a logical triactor play.

Race 3

(3) CHARMED LIFE has been racing at her best in recent weeks and has scored back-to-back wins. (2) WINDSONG GEANT is starting to look like his old self. He's racing very consistently, draws inside and is certainly capable in here. (6) CATCH THE DREAM hasn't missed the board in many weeks, has back class and offers a lot of versatility.

Race 4

(7) REQUEST FOR PAROLE comes out of the Johnson barn, is fresh off a win at this level and gets Waples in the bike. (3) FERRARI SENA draws inside, drops out of the Fillies & Mares Preferred class and comes from the Moreau barn. (8) JENNA CASIMIR may offer a price like last week, but she's been at her best in here last three appearances.

Race 5

(3) FRIEND OR FOE was a winner last week in this class, draws well and gets Christoforou back in the bike. (6) NOBLE FLIGHT has been the picture of consistency this season and has a terrific late kick. (5) DOUBLEDOWN GASS has only missed the board once this season, has terrific gate speed and is a top threat once again.

Race 6

(6) MACHAL JORDAN remains at this level, continues to pace in the 1:50-range and may offer a fair price in this wide-open contest. (1) THE REV gets the rail, comes from McNair's barn and finished second last week in this class. (5) FOREGO THE CIGAR just missed last week and Nixon's barn has been terrific this season. He has the speed and is capable of the class jump.

Race 7

(1) POCKET TRIP has terrific gate-speed and is a logical option in this class. Goodwin's barn has been terrific this season and this gelding will offer a low price. (4) HOME TURF is fresh off a win and has won three of his last four. (6) NORTHERN BULLET comes from the Larocque barn and is making just his second start back after a successful 2013 campaign.

Race 8

(10) THUNDER STEELER will need to overcome post 10, but he drops to this bottom level and may command a price. (5) LENNON BLUE CHIP enters the condition ranks, draws well and has been racing much better as of late. (4) DRAIN DADDY is due for a big effort sooner or later. He comes from good connections and went a tough trip last week.

Race 9

(9) ELLIS PARK commanded a price last week en route to victory. I'll back him again against many of the same rivals. (8) SUNSHINE BEACH recently qualified in 1:50 2/5 and faces a much easier field. (5) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE has suffered a pair of unfortunate steers as he was loaded with pace and nowhere to go. With a clean trip, he's a top candidate.

Race 10

(8) E L TITAN won three of five starts last season, qualified strongly and appears ready to begin his 2014 campaign. (4) DAMFOORRMILLIONAIR comes from the Maxwell barn, has won back-to-back races and is capable of the class jump. (1) OLE JACK MAGIC draws the rail and has hit the board in two of his last three.

Race 11

(4) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP draws well for trainer Johnson and just missed last week in this class. (3) JDS CALEB MAN has a patented late kick, is fresh off a career best mile and draws much better in here. (1) THEPANINSULAHOTEL gets the rail, has all kinds of back class to offer and gets Christoforou back in the bike.

Race 12

(10) BAD BOY MATT has been racing well as of late and was a beaten favourite last week in this class. (2) TENDTOWIN draws inside and has won six of nine this season. He has the speed and may offer a price like last week. (9) JACKSON BRADY was a winner two back for trainer Wallace and is capable of the class jump. McNair is in the bike this week and will likely offer a price.
 

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English League One TODAY 12:15
Sheff UtdvBristol C
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS111/10

12/5

3

More markets
RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SHEFF UTDRECENT FORM
NLHWADAWADHW
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  • 3 - 0
  • 3 - 2
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HDAWHWAWHDAD
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KEY STAT: Bristol City drew 19 times in League One last term

EXPERT VERDICT: Sheffield United won both games against Bristol City last season but this looks likely to be a tighter affair between two of League One's fancied teams. Both sides have recruited heavily in a bid to secure a return to the second tier and with early season nerves playing their part, it may end up all-square.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Paul Tierney STADIUM:

 

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Football Conference TODAY 12:45
Bristol RvGrimsby
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT16/5

12/5

11/5

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BRISTOL RRECENT FORM
ADHLALHLAWHL
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  • 1 - 0
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HLADHWADHDAL
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KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in eight of Rovers’ last nine season openers

EXPERT VERDICT: Grimsby have won just two of their last 12 opening matches, but last season’s playoff semi-finalists have had an excellent summer under Paul Hurst. Relegated Rovers are favourites to bounce straight back under Darrell Clarke but they won’t find the division in general and Grimsby in particular easy to sweep aside.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


 

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English Championship TODAY 17:15
IpswichvFulham
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS18/5

9/4

13/8

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT IPSWICHRECENT FORM
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AWHWALHDALHD
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KEY STAT: In Fulham’s last *campaign in the second tier, they won 14 away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Fulham’s last nine matches saw them lose only to Man City, Everton, Tottenham and Stoke, and Felix Magath’s side are bolstered by the arrival of Ross McCormack, who bagged 28 goals in the Championship last season. Fulham are known as a poor away side but they can win at Portman Road.

RECOMMENDATION: Fulham
1


REFEREE: Stephen Martin STADIUM:

 

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French Ligue 1 TODAY 20:00
BastiavMarseille
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
ESPN29/10

21/10

21/20

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BASTIARECENT FORM
ALHWALHDAWHD
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KEY STAT: Bastia are unbeaten in their last five home fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Claude Makelele can make the perfect start to his managerial career by leading Bastia to a home victory over Marseille. Bastia won ten of their 19 home league games last season and should pose a stern test for Marseille, who are still coming to terms with the sale of key player Mathieu Valbuena to Dynamo Moscow.

RECOMMENDATION: Bastia
1


 

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Dutch Eredivisie Su 10Aug 11:30
Den HaagvFeyenoord
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS414/5

14/5

17/20

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DEN HAAGRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: ADO Den Haag lost just one of their final 12 Eredivisie games last season, and that was to champions Ajax

EXPERT VERDICT: Feyenoord did superbly to finish second last season but their squad was completely dismantled in the summer and manager Ronald Koeman is now at Southampton. ADO have a new synthetic playing surface and could get a shock victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Den Haag
1


 

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Scottish Championship Su 10Aug 13:30
RangersvHearts
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS14/6

3

15/4

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT RANGERSRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Rangers haven’t failed to find the net in any of their last 40 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Hearts are going to Ibrox at arguably the best possible time with Ally McCoist trying to find his best side following a poor Challenge Cup win against Hibs. Robbie Neilson’s Hearts have been rebuilt since relegation and Osman Sow, with four in four in pre-season, is part of a pacy outfit who could cause the Championship jollies trouble.

RECOMMENDATION: Hearts
1


REFEREE: STADIUM: Ibrox

 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 80

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, QUARTER HORSE OPEN DERBY - QUARTER HORSES. 3-YEAR-OLDS OPEN DERBY. WEIGHT: 126 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 MADAM DOUBTFIRE 5/2


# 5 DONTTHROTLEMYSTYLE 3/1


# 3 DAKOTA FLY JESS 7/2


I've got to go with MADAM DOUBTFIRE. Looks very good versus this field and will almost certainly be one of the early speedsters. Garnered a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run as of late. DONTTHROTLEMYSTYLE - Should be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Should definitely be carefully examined for this event if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last affair. DAKOTA FLY JESS - With a formidable 61 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Must be in good condition if the conditioner is bringing her back so soon.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 10 CALYPSOGIRL 8/5


# 8 MYSTICAL RAIN 12/1


# 2 DE RAGE GIRL 6/1


CALYPSOGIRL gets the edge as the bet in here. Has run quite well when running a dirt route race. Ran a solid last race. With a nice class fig average of 86, has one of the top class advantages in this field. MYSTICAL RAIN - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most favorable class figs of this group of horses. Has been racing strongly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. DE RAGE GIRL - Could provide positive dividends based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 56. Davis has solid numbers that point to this filly to be a strong contender.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline - Race #9 - Post: 9:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SHAY PARKER B. (ML=4/1)
#8 WAR DRAFT (ML=6/1)


SHAY PARKER B. - Filly had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Trainer, Rideaux, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. WAR DRAFT - Beavin drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to believe this one has a darn good chance at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 KONSON ON FIRE (ML=5/2), #11 ONE SEXY MOMMA (ML=5/1), #3 POLISHED PRIDE (ML=8/1),

KONSON ON FIRE - Based on the pace scenario in this event, this animal doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this animal having to race from behind, she sure has a tough assignment. ONE SEXY MOMMA - Hard to take this steed at these odds after the result (seventh) in the last affair. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. POLISHED PRIDE - A bit of a lackluster outing when this filly finished fifth. Tough for this closer equine to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone early speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.




STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 SHAY PARKER B. To win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #11 - Post: 6:34pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 MIMI'S DREAM (ML=5/2)


MIMI'S DREAM - Rios rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back in this race. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a nice race on July 19th. The 75 last race speed figure looks good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ANOTHER BIG CAT (ML=2/1), #3 SUBTLE HUMOR (ML=4/1), #7 YAGODKA (ML=6/1),

ANOTHER BIG CAT - This filly has already lost as the favorite in back to back races. Hard to give her another chance. This filly hasn't been getting the job done as the public's top choice. SUBTLE HUMOR - If she goes off anywhere near the oddsmaker's morning line of 4/1, I'll have to pass. YAGODKA - Don't believe this steed will make an impact today. That last speed figure was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating.




STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 MIMI'S DREAM to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Del Mar

RACE #5 - DEL MAR THOROUGHBRED CLUB - 4:10 PM PACIFIC POST


The La Jolla Stakes

8½ FURLONGS TURF GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#6 ENTERPRISING
#1 AGRYLE CUT
#2 SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
#4 SAMMY MANDEVILLE

#6 ENTERPRISING has won 4 of 5 starts in his career starts to date racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the grass, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, with four of those "board hit efforts," including a pair of wins, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Gutsy jockey Mike Smith has been in his irons on one previous occasion, posting a win, en route to a +290% profit in the process, and Smith is back today for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips!" #1 ARGYLE CUT has also hit the board in five straight, with four of those efforts, including a win in his 3rd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #10 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:48 PM EASTERN POST


The Fourstardave Handicap

8.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $500,000.00 PURSE

#1 SILVER MAX
#5 SAYAAD
#2 SEEK AGAIN
#6 GRAND ARCH

#1 SILVER MAX is the overall speed leader in this stakes field this evening, and has won 9 of 14 in his career to date racing at tonight's distance of a mile on the grass, and has posted "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five "adventures," including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak or racing consistency. Jockey Robby Albarado has been in his irons on 14 previous occasions, hitting the board in 9 of those races, winning 7 times, and is back this afternoon here at "The Spa" for his 15th ride! #5 SAYAAD, a 5-1 shot, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including back-to-back-to-back, "POWER RUN WINS" in his last three starts.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Alberta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 4:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$2300 - CLAIMING 4000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 AUSTINLAVISTABABY 4/1


# 9 GRAMRUN JAKE 7/2


# 1 NATIONAL INTEREST 3/1


AUSTINLAVISTABABY looks good to best this field of horses. Most likely the class of the pack with an average rating of 84. A nice play. Should be given a look based on the competitive TrackMaster speed fig achieved in the most recent affair. Top notch ROI from the Alberta Downs 8 hole, watch out for this live one. GRAMRUN JAKE - The number crunching team gives this race horse a really strong chance to come home a winner, class numbers are tops in the bunch. NATIONAL INTEREST - Worth considering here given the ratings in the speed rating department alone. This harness racer achieved a respectable TrackMaster speed fig last out. Looks to be racing sharply to come right back.
 
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Handicapped by Rusty Nash at Marshall

Rustys Simulcast Best Plays for

Mohawk ~ Yonkers ~ Pocono ~ Hoosier


Saturday August 9, 2014


Handicapped using TrackMaster Charts, TrackMaster Plus Programs and Data Files, my personal Speed Rating Projections and several decades of keen observation!


Overview of Todays Simulcast Selections

Balmoral is dark with the fair racing taking the front stage.

The New Meadowlands is now closed until the Breeders Crown eliminations in the fall. Though I do hope you had Hambletonian superfecta with us last week!

We will look at most of the races from Mohawk tonight. I have two there that I like quite a bit. One opens at a hefty morning line.

There also look to be quite a few plays on the sheets for the other three tracks.


For the Bonus Plays this season we will go with our 3 horse Projection Worksheet Exacta Boxes. This is defined as a situation where the projected gap between the third and fourth horses is four lengths or more. The secondary qualification is that none of the other horses in the race can be on my watch list. Some weeks we have quite a few other weeks they can be pretty scarce.

My only word of caution here is my worksheet does not include qualifiers. Horses coming off of a Q are usually found at the bottom of the list. Part of your job is to determine if the play should be altered in any way.

Wishing us all great racing luck this evening!


* * *
Rustys Best Plays guarantee a minimum of three races with full description and initial wagering thoughts 24-48 hours out. These are the races that look most interesting from a wagering perspective. Usually we will end up with about 4-6 races where a decent play may materialize if the odds are with us. Other races may be found with little or no commentary or only my list of rated contenders. These are races where I probably do not have a strong opinion or think should be avoided for other reasons. Normally I troll these races looking for overlays among my top rated selections. They are also useful for DD, P3, and P4 sequences.


I use the same care in preparing this report as I do for my own private equine investing!

Please compare my selections names and numbers to the official program. I do, and so should you. Now, off to the races......


Please note these exacta plays are listed in numerical order and not my graded order.

Mohawk Race #6 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 5.

Yonkers Race #3 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 4.

Hoosier Race #3 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 4.
Hoosier Race #5 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.
Hoosier Race #7 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 7 ~ 10.
 

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