UFC 202 Preview & Picks
By Brian Edwards
Five months after tasting his first UFC defeat, Conor McGregor (19-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC) is poised to take on Nate Diaz in a rematch at UFC 202 on Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The show will feature 12 fights beginning with a trio of bouts on UFC FightPass at 6:30 p.m. Eastern. Next, the prelims will consist of four fights on Fox Sports 1 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern before the main card on pay-per-view gets going at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
McGregor-Diaz II was initially scheduled to headline the UFC 200 card, but McGregor refused to leave his training camp in Iceland to participate at promotional activities in Las Vegas. He went so far as to tease retirement with a tweet that went viral and was re-tweeted more times than Kobe Bryant’s retirement announcement.
Several days later, McGregor laid out his reasoning for wanting to be exempt from the promotional work with a long social-media post that made a lot of sense. Nevertheless, Dana White and Co. wouldn’t budge on their stance, resulting in McGregor-Diaz II being moved off the 200 card and scheduled for this weekend.
As of Friday, most betting shops had McGregor installed as a -130 favorite, leaving Diaz at +110 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $105). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -130, ‘over’ +110).
Once again, this non-title fight will be contested at 170 pounds, two divisions above the featherweight loop where McGregor remains the undisputed champion. ‘The Notorious’ was slated to fight for the lightweight championship against former strap holder Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 196. However, less than two weeks before the bout, RDA was force to withdraw with a broken foot sustained in training camp.
On just 11 days of notice, Diaz (19-10 MMA, 14-8 UFC) accepted the fight he had lobbied for after beating Michael Johnson at UFC Orlando last December. Since he didn’t have time to cut weight and get down to 155 pounds, negotiations went back and forth on whether the fight would take place at a catchweight of 160 or 165. When Diaz insisted upon 165, McGregor basically said the hell with it, let’s do it at 170.
McGregor came out strong in the first meeting, peppering Diaz with strikes galore in the opening round. Those punches opened up a cut above the Stockton product’s right eye in the later stages of the stanza. In four of McGregor’s seven previous UFC fights at featherweight, his opponents had gone down by first-round knockouts.
But the pride of Ireland wasn’t fighting a 145er on March 5. He was fighting a Diaz Brother, one in Nate that had only been finished twice (one submission, one KO) in 28 previous career fights. Though McGregor continued to get the best of most of the exchanges in the first minute or two of the second stanza, he started to show signs of fatigue, while Diaz seemed to be getting his timing down.
A combination from Diaz backed up McGregor midway through the round. Moments later, a lead right jab landed and was followed by a left that buckled McGregor. Diaz immediately smiled and the raucous crowd roared its approval at the clear-cut momentum shift.
From there, it was all Diaz, who even popped McGregor with one of his patented ‘Stockton Slaps.’ With Diaz busting him up with combinations, McGregor shockingly attempted a takedown that failed. Diaz promptly took control on the ground, eventually gaining mount where he hammered McGregor with ground-and-pound punishment.
McGregor quickly gave up his back and Diaz went for the guillotine choke. The BJJ black belt locked it in and McGregor had no choice but to tap.
Diaz hooked up his backers with tickets in the +400 range (risk $100 to win $400) and enjoyed the finest moment of his career, one that has led to greenbacks galore in his pocket.
McGregor has spent $300,000 on his training camp, bringing in training partners who are the same size as Diaz. He has also spent significant time improving his ground game.
At Thursday’s pre-fight presser, McGregor was late and the event started without him. Shortly after McGregor belatedly joined the fighters at the dais, Diaz decided to bolt and hurl a few f-bombs McGregor’s way. When McGregor responded in kind with a slew of f-bombs, Diaz threw a water bottle at his opponent.
McGregor then grabbed every can and bottle at the table and threw them at Diaz and his team as they were walking out the door. Dana White quickly called a halt to the presser and went to the microphone to tell the media, “Sorry guys, see ya Saturday night.”
Prediction: Man, this is a tough one to call. I hate to admit that I didn’t at least get a small taste of Diaz at the huge underdog price in the first fight. I just felt the short notice would be such a hindrance to his performance, which in hindsight was ignorant because the Diaz Brothers are always in shape. This time around, both fighters are in stellar condition. Remember, when Dos Anjos bowed out of UFC 196 and 170 was the weight determined vs. Diaz, McGregor helped himself to steaks and whatever food he wanted in the days leading up to the bout. Diaz has already proven that he can take McGregor’s best, absorbing his best punches in the first meeting without slowing down. Many pundits have suggested that McGregor will use his kicks more this time and be more patient. But the longer the fight goes, the bigger the advantage Diaz has in my opinion. Consider this: Only one of McGregor’s 22 career fights have gone to Round 3 (when he won a decision over Max Holloway). Meanwhile, 13 of Diaz’s 29 career scraps have made it to the third stanza and 11 of those finished the third round. I like Diaz for two units at +110.
In the co-main event, Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and Glover Teixeira will collide with the winner most likely earning a shot at Daniel Cormier’s light heavyweight strap. As of Friday, most books had Johnson (21-5 MMA, 12-5 UFC) listed as a favorite in the -200 range with Teixeira as an underdog in the +170ish neighborhood. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -125, ‘over’ +105).
For those bullish on Johnson who would like to shave off some of the price, there are these other options: Johnson to win inside the distance (-110), Johnson to win by TKO/KO (-108) and Johnson to win in Round 1 (+170).
Johnson has bagged four Performance of the Night bonuses in his last five fights. Since returning to the promotion, the 32-year-old Johnson has compiled a 5-1 record in the light-heavyweight division. (He fought at welterweight in his first stint with the UFC.) Fighting at 205 pounds, ‘Rumble’ has collected scalps of Phil Davis, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alexander Gustafsson, Jimi Manuwa and Ryan Bader. Only Davis avoided a knockout loss, joining Manuwa as the only fighter to get out of the opening round.
Johnson’s lone loss came to Daniel Cormier at UFC 187 when Cormier won the light heavyweight belt that was vacated when Jon Jones was suspended indefinitely for arrest on hit-and-run charges in Albuquerque. After nearly getting finished in the opening minute, Cormier bounced back in Rounds 2 and 3 and dominated with his wrestling, finishing the fight with a rear-naked choke at the 2:39 mark of the third round.
Teixeira (25-4 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has ripped off three consecutive wins since suffering back-to-back defeats against former 205-pound kingpin Jon Jones and Phil ‘Mr. Wonderful’ Davis. The 36-year-old Brazilian started his winning streak with a third-round submission victory over Ovince St. Preux in Nashville last August.
Next, Teixeira collected a second-round TKO win (punches) over Patrick Cummins at UFC Fight Night 77 last November. Then in April, Teixeira scored a first-round KO win over Rashad Evans as a -200 ‘chalk.’
Three of Teixeira’s four career defeats have come by decision. The only time he’s been finished was in his first career bout, a second-round KO loss to Eric Schwartz in June of 2002. Teixeira owns notable victories over the likes of Bader, James Te-Huna, Rampage Jackson, Fabio Maldonado and Kyle Kingsbury.
Prediction: I’ve been saying for more than a year now that ‘Rumble’ probably has the most one-punch power of any fighter on the roster not named Mark Hunt. He always comes out strong looking for the kill with punches and head kicks. Teixeira is a killer, too, earning finishes in seven of his eight UFC victories. Four of Johnson’s last six fights have gone ‘under’ 1.5 rounds. Even if Teixeira can weather Johnson’s early barrage, the ‘under’ will still have life if Glover gets Johnson to the ground. That’s where Teixeira will have the advantage with his outstanding ground game that could lead to a submission. I think Johnson wins, but I don’t lay that sort of expensive price and especially not against someone of Glover’s ilk. Give me 2.5 units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at the -125 price.
With all the hype surrounding the headliner and co-main, a stellar welterweight showdown seems to be flying way under the radar. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will be fighting at 170 for the third straight time when he collides with Rick ‘The Horror’ Story.
Since losing a lightweight title shot against Dos Anjos last December in Orlando, Cerrone has looked spectacular at welterweight. In the UFC Pittsburgh headliner in February, he submitted Alex Oliveira with a triangle choke midway through the opening round. Then in June, Cerrone bagged a second straight Performance of the Night bonus by scoring a third-round TKO (punches) of Patrick Cote.
Prior to the (second) loss to Dos Anjos, Cerrone (30-7, 1 NC MMA, 17-4 UFC) won eight consecutive fights. In fact, he hasn’t tasted defeat to someone not named Dos Anjos since losing by first-round TKO (body kick) to Anthony Pettis in January of 2013. His most notable career wins have come over Jamie Varner, Danny Castillo, Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver, Jeremy Stephens, Melvin Guillard, Edson Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez, Myles Jury and Benson Henderson.
Before joining the UFC, five of Cerrone’s last seven bouts for World Extreme Cagefighting earned Fight of the Night honors. During his 21-fight UFC tenure, Cowboy has bagged 12 fight-night bonuses.
As of Friday, most spots had Cerrone installed as a -165 ‘chalk’ with Story available on the comeback for a +140 return (risk $100 to win $140). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -180, ‘under’ +155).
Story (19-8 MMA, 12-6 UFC) has won three consecutive fights to climb up to No. 9 in the welterweight rankings. Cerrone is ranked No. 14 at welterweight and sixth in the lightweight loop (why/how is Barboza ahead of Cerrone at fifth?).
After more than 18 months on the sidelines due to injuries, Story returned to the Octagon on May 29 at UFC Fight Night 88. The 31-year-old wrestler captured a unanimous-decision victory (29-28, 30-27, 29-28) over Tarec Saffiedine as a -130 favorite.
Story has been an underdog in seven of his 18 Octagon appearances. He owns a 4-3 record in those situations, hooking up his betting backers with underdog tickets to cash in wins over Gunnar Nelson (split decision, +275), Thiago Alves (UD, +180), Dustin Hazelett (TKO, +125) and Johny Hendricks (UD, +170).
Story owns other notable career wins over the likes of Jake Ellenberger, Brian Foster, Brian Ebersole and Leonardo Mafra. He has only been finished once in 27 career fights, losing by submission to Demian Maia at UFC 153. Three of Story’s defeats have come via split decisions against Martin Kampmann, Mike Pyle and Kelvin Gastelum.
Prediction: Cerrone has the better stand-up game, but I’m not sure he’s faced such a powerful wrestler in his entire career. Perhaps Benson Henderson is on (or the closest thing to) Story’s level in the wrestling department? Cerrone went 1-2 in a trio of bouts against Henderson, and many felt ‘Smooth’ deserved the nod in Cowboy’s decision victory in January of 2015. I lean Cerrone’s way, but I’m not betting him unless the odds get reduced into the -135 range. I’ll go with a small one-unit play on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +155 payout.
Two other welterweight scraps are on the main card. Hyun Gyu Lim is a -270 favorite vs. Mike Perry (+225), while Tim Means is a -400 ‘chalk’ against Sabah Homasi (+325).
In the prelims headliner, eighth-ranked Cody ‘No Love’ Garbrandt is the biggest favorite on the card for his tilt with 11th-ranked Takeya Mizugaki. Most spots have the rising star listed in the -550 range, while Mizugaki is the +400 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +130).
Garbrandt (9-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) won a state championship in wrestling as a freshman at Claymont High School in Ohio. He moved his focus to boxing afterward and compiled a 32-1 record as an amateur. In 2014, Garbrandt moved from Ohio to Sacramento to join Team Alpha Male.
Eight of his nine career wins have come by KO, including six first-round finishes. A seventh KO came early in the second round. Gabrandt is off the biggest win of his career in his first main event, dusting previously unbeaten Thomas Almeida by first-round KO in less than three minutes.
Mizugaki (21-9-2 MMA, 8-4 UFC) has dropped two of his last three fights. He lost by first-round KO to Dominick Cruz in just 61 seconds at UFC 178. Next, he was submitted in the third round by Aljamain Sterling before bouncing back with a UD victory over George Roop last September.
Prediction: This is my favorite play on the whole card. I love UNDER 1.5 rounds for the +130 return. Give me five units on it. Also, I’ll take one-half unit on the prop bet for Garbrandt to win in Round 1 (+200 at 5Dimes.eu), as I’m expecting a first-round KO out of ‘No Love.’
The FightPass headliner will feature a crucial welterweight scrap between red-hot Neil Magny and Lorenz Larkin. As of Friday, most books had Magny (18-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) listed as a -135 favorite, with Larkin as the +115 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -215, ‘under’ +185).
Magny is on an incredible 10-1 roll in 11 fights since the start of 2014 when he tied the UFC record for most wins (five) in a calendar year. After losing two of his first three career fights in the Octagon, Magny ripped off a seven-fight winning streak.
That surge was halted at UFC 190 in Brazil, where Demian Maia scored a second-round submission victory. Since then, Magny has bounced back with three consecutive wins over top-tier competition. He captured split-decision triumphs over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum before blasting Hector Lombard by third-round KO at UFC Fight Night 85 in Brisbane, Australia, in March.
Lombard came out strong and hurt Magny badly in the opening minute of the bout. Lombard was wearing Magny out in ground-and-pound fashion and it appeared as if the fight was going to be stopped early. However, Magny continued to intelligently defend himself and fight back, while Lombard began to tire after an explosive effort to get the finish.
When Magny was able to get back to his feet, he created some offense late in the opening stanza. Then in the second round, it was all Magny. He hurt Lombard with a flurry of strikes and eventually worked him to the ground and took the mount position.
From there, Magny went to work in violent fashion. His strikes had Lombard’s face a swollen mess and he wasn’t making any attempt to hip escape. Instead, he was trying, albeit unsuccessfully for the most part, to block Magny’s punches. Nevertheless, the incompetent referee wouldn’t stop the fight even as Magny would look at the ref following each 4-5 punch assault.
Somehow the ref allowed the fight to go to a third round, and that’s when Magny got the finish 46 seconds into the stanza.
Larkin (17-5-1 MMA, 4-5 UFC) went 1-3 in his first four Octagon appearances after coming over from Strikeforce, but he has bounced back nicely with three wins in four bouts since dropping down to the welterweight division. The 29-year-old’s only defeat at 170 pounds came via split decision to Albert Tumenov. Larkin is off a split-decision win over Jorge Masvidal at UFC Fight Night 88 in May.
Prediction: Magny has made me a believer during his recent hot stretch, showing a lot of toughness and a solid chin in the win over Lombard. I had Larkin for a winner his last time out against Masvidal and was puzzled as to how one judge had Masvidal winning the fight. Tough call here, but I’ll put one unit on Magny at -135. A word of caution, though: If these odds drift north of -140, I’d stay away.
**B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets**
-- Dana White confirmed what Jon Jones hinted at in a since-deleted social-media post (imagine that? Jones deleting a tweet or Instagram post? No way!). Though White didn’t delve into too many details, he indicated that Jones might no be looking at what most have presumed will be a two-year suspension from the NAC.
-- All 24 fighters made weight early Friday. Diaz tipped the scales at 170.5 pounds, while McGregor weighed in at 168.
-- According to BloodyElbow.com, only four of 41 UFC fighters polled had McGregor earning redemption and beating Diaz in the rematch.
-- Best wishes to Chael Sonnen and his family. Chael’s wife Brittany contracted listeria, an infection usually caused by food that’s contaminated with a particular bacterium, that prompted their baby daughter to be born 10 weeks premature. The baby girl passed away on Wednesday.
