At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
We had another productive day on Friday with four winners on top, the winners paying $5.30, $12.40, $3.80 and $17.20.
I missed out on personally hitting the Pick 5, and I only had one top pick in the sequence. My second choice won a race, my third choices won two others and my fourth choice won one race. I did not go that deep and got knocked out in the fourth race.
The Pick 5 for Saturday certainly looks hittable and I have five Live Longshots in the sequence. If we can get a couple of them home first we should see a generous payoff.
In addition to Saratoga, my Best Plays Report for Saturday includes the stakes action from Arlington Park. It is the International Festival of Racing and features a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
The 11-race card at Saratoga features a pair of graded stakes. The Grade 2 Knob Creek Lake Placid will be run as the third race on the card because it drew just six, with five slated to go as My Miss Sophia was entered for main track only.
The feature is the Grade 1 $600,000 Alabama for three-year-old fillies that drew a field of nine led by CCA Oaks winner Stopchargingmaria for the Todd Pletcher barn.
The filly handled Unbridled Forever easily by five lengths last out, but I am thinking we could see a mild upset here with the additional ground.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $50,000N2L (1:00 ET)
6 Goodnewsisnonews 7-2
2 Harpoon 9-5
1 Cost Affective / 1a Dyker Beach 3-1
3 Vona 10-1
Analysis: Goodnewsisnonews stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to come up just a nose short of beating $25,000 non-winners of two last out. The colt was claimed out of the race by the Asmussen barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. The colt earned a career top speed fig last out and while he steps up to the $50,000 tag these are still non-winners of two.
Harpoon takes the hood off and gets some needed class relief here after coming up short in the Quick Call last out on turf. The colt is back on dirt here and is offered up for a tag for the first time here by the Pletcher barn. After breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park going a one-turn mile he missed winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) by just a nose, but has not been abler to run back to that effort. The switch back to dirt should suit and he fits here but his price is going to be on the light side. The Pletcher barn is 26% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 The Alabama G1 (6:20 ET)
1 Unbridled Forever 4-1
8 Stopchargingmaria 2-1
9 Size 5-1
5 Got Lucky 5-1
Analysis: Unbridled Forever stalked the early pace and was no match for Stopchargingmaria in the CCA Oaks (G1) last out, checking in five lengths behind the winner. The filly has a shot of turning the tables here as the added distance here may come into play. She has more of a long-winded pedigree, by Unbridled's Song out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. She has lost four in a row but ran into Sweet Reason two back in a third in the Acorn (G1), that filly returning to win the Test (G1) and three and four back she ran into division leader Untapable. She is going to offer us a bit more value for the top spot.
Stopchargingmaria got the job done as our top pick in the CCA Oaks and she has done some of her best running over the Spa main track, running a good second in the Spinaway here last summer as well. She did drift out a bit in the final furlong and I am not convinced she can handle going 1 1/4 miles. The 2-1 morning line would be fair enough but have a hunch her price is going to be lighter.
Size has won three of her four career starts, last out taking the Iowa Oaks (G3) in her graded stakes debut. She beat the much overrated Ria Antonia by 1 1/4 lengths in the effort. She earned a solid speed fig in her win and has worked smartly since her last start. With just four starts under her belt she appears to have more upside than most of these and may end up getting overlooked in the betting.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 15,8,9
TRI: 1,8 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,5,6,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Arlington Park:
AP Race 9 The Beverly D. G1 (4:54 CT)
9 Alterite 4-1
4 Emollient 5-1
5 Stephanie's Kitten 7-2
1 Just the Judge 6-1
Analysis: Alterite prompted the early pace and ran out of gas in the stretch in a eighth place finish in the Diana (G1) last out, finishing behind a couple of these she faces again today as five of these exit that Grade 1 fixture at the Spa. The Chad Brown trainee was in a tough spot making her first start off an 8 1/2 month layoff. She ran well in her first three starts last fall after crossing the pond, including winning the Garden City (G1) in her U.S. debut. She then was beaten just a neck in the QEII Cup (G1) at Keeneland and was third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), beaten just a length. She should be tighter here for a trainer that is 23% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. She can handle the extra ground and we likely are going to get a fair price in this wide-open field.
Emollient also ran in the Diana and she was ninth, beaten 5 1/4 lengths at 5-1. The filly was rank in the early going and had to be taken up early and then again heading into the first turn. She was still a bit rank fighting the rider until the far turn and did not have enough punch left late. Two back she was beaten just a nose in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita and she is a Grade 1 winner on poly and turf. She is better than she showed last out and may offer decent value here.
Stephanie's Kitten raced near the back of the pack after jostling a bit with a foe, came with a four wide run into the stretch and finished strongly to come up just a neck short of winning the Diana. She needs to have things go right for her and see some pace in front of her. It looks as if she will get an honest pace to run at and Dettori sticks for another go. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and will be running late.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 1,4,5,9
TRI: 4,9 /1,4,5,9 / 1,4,5,6,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #3 Vona 10-1
R2: #7 Decisive Move 8-1
R3: #4 Quick Money 10-1
R4: #5 Compton County 8-1
R5: #4 Grand Strand 8-1
R7: #2 Gourmet Dinner 10-1
R8: #2 Fire Starter 8-1
R8: #4 Scam 8-1
R9: #6 Sun Worshipper 10-1
R11: #3 Woodfield Springs 15-1
R11: #11 Lulu Le’ Mon 8-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
