UFC 200 Preview & Picks
By Brian Edwards
LAS VEGAS -- With the removal of Jon Jones from the UFC 200 main event against Daniel Cormier due to a USADA violation, Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes will now serve as the headliner in Tate’s first defense of her women’s bantamweight title.
What a wild 48 hours of drama leading into the promotion’s biggest event ever Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! First, Jones did his thing, recklessly sabotaging his career yet again. Then the company moved swiftly in finding a replacement for Jones in former middleweight kingpin Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva, who will now face Cormier in a three-round non-title fight at 205 pounds.
When the Jones news broke late Wednesday night, the UFC announced that the heavyweight scrap between Mark Hunt and Brock Lesnar would be the main event. Once Silva-Cormier was made official Thursday night, the promotion reversed course and made Tate-Nunes the headliner.
Then on Friday morning, Tate literally made weight at the buzzer. The new rules dictate that all fighters must make weight by 10:00 a.m. the day before the fight. Tate walked into the room, stripped down naked (behind a towel) and tipped the scales at 134.5 pounds.
UFC officials confirmed to media members that had the clock hit 10:01 without her making weight, Tate-Nunes would’ve been a non-title fight. If she didn’t make it to the facility by 10:00 a.m., she would’ve been yanked off the card altogether.
As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Tate (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) Tate installed as a -250 ‘chalk’ with Nunes as the +210 underdog (risk $100 to win $210). The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -235, ‘under’ +195).
Tate lost his first two fights in the UFC, dropping her debut to Cat Zingano by third-round KO in the Fight of the Night at the TUF 17 Finale. When Zingano went down with a knee injury in training, Tate took her spot alongside Ronda Rousey as a coach on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter.
These bitter rivals, who had met previously when Rousey won Tate’s Strikeforce belt with a first-round armbar finish, feuded throughout the season. Then they collided again at UFC 168 with Rousey earning another armbar submission early in the third round. The bout took Fight of the Night honors.
Tate’s climb back into title contention started with a unanimous-decision victory over Liz Carmouche at UFC on FOX 11. Next, she won a UD over Rin Nakai at Fight Night 52. In January of 2015, Tate took a majority decision from Sara McMann at UFC 183. Then last summer in Chicago, she won the second and third rounds to slip past Jessica Eye by UD.
After the win over Eye, the UFC announced that Tate would get next crack at Rousey’s belt. However, several weeks later, the promotion changed course and booked Rousey to take on Holly Holm, who pulled one of the biggest upsets in UFC history with a second-round KO.
With Rousey going on a hiatus that was previously planned before the defeat, Holm wanted to remain active. Therefore, she was booked to face Tate in her first title defense at UFC 196 in March. Holm kept the fight standing in Rounds 1, 3 and 4 and won those rounds rather decisively. Tate scored a takedown and dominated in the second stanza, but she went into the fifth knowing she had to get the finish.
She was able to get Holm in the clinch, take her back and go for the rear-naked choke. Holm correctly defended the choke, but Tate wasn’t letting go once she got underneath. Holm refused to tap and went to sleep before the referee intervened. Tate earned a Performance of the Night bonus in earning he fifth consecutive win.
Nunes (12-4 MMA, 5-1 UFC) won her first two UFC fights before losing by third-round KO to Zingano at UFC 178. Since then, the 28-year-old Brazilian has won three in a row, including a UD triumph over Valentina Shevchenko at UFCD 196 in March.
Prediction: I like Tate to win, but the price is too expensive for my taste. I’ll pass.
As of Friday, most betting shops had Hunt (12-10-1 MMA, 7-4-1 UFC) listed as a -170 favorite, leaving Lesnar at +150 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $150). This co-main event isn’t expected to go the distance, evidenced by the expensive odds for gamblers to take ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (-240, ‘over’ +200).
The 38-year-old Lesnar (5-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is returning to the Octagon for the first time since 2011. He has had only 34 days to train, but he’s looked in outstanding shape at this week’s media events.
Lesnar won the heavyweight strap by beating Randy Couture by second-round knockout at UFC 91 in November of 2008. He defended his title by destroying Frank Mir in a revenge spot at UFC 100, scoring a second-round KO 17 months after Mir submitted him at UFC 81 in a controversial bout.
Lesnar made his second successful title defense, tying many others for the most in the division’s history, by rallying to submit Shane Carwin at UFC 116 on July 3 of 2010. Carwin battered Lesnar with strikes galore in the opening stanza, but Lesnar somehow weathered the story and Carwin gassed out Round 2.
Lesnar scored the win over Carwin after missing nearly a year while suffering from the disease diverticulitis. At UFC 121 in October of 2010, Lesnar lost his belt to Cain Velasquez, who got back to his feet after an early takedown and went to work with his stand-up game. Velasquez bloodied Lesnar all around the Octagon before referee Herb Dean intervened with 48 seconds remaining in the opening stanza.
After another case of diverticulitis prompted a second surgery, Lesnar returned to face Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. But The ‘Reem caught Lesnar with a thunderous body kick that sent him to the canvas and following up with strikes to end the fight in just 146 seconds. Lesnar immediately announced his retirement to Joe Rogan in the Octagon, and he’s been gone ever since – until Saturday.
Hunt has won back-to-back fights with first-round knockout wins over Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva at UFC 193 and Frank Mir at UFC Fight Night 85. The ‘Super Samoan’ garnered a Performance of the Night bonus with his stoppage victory over Mir in late March.
After getting submitted by Sean McCorkle just 63 seconds into his Octagon debut at UFC 199, Hunt won four consecutive fights over Chris Tuchscherer , Ben Rothwell, Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve. He earned KO of the Night bonuses in his scalps of Tuchscherer and Struve.
Hunt saw his four-fight winning streak snapped by Junior Dos Santos, who scored a sick KO with a spinning hook kick deep into the third and final round. JDS and Hunt earned Fight of the Night honors. Next, Hunt went to war for 25 minutes with ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in one of the greatest heavyweight fights of all-time. The bout was scored as a majority draw.
Prediction: This is the vintage matchup of fighters who excel at different fighting disciplines. Lesnar was a two-time NCAA champion in wrestling at the University of Minnesota. He has amazing speed and athleticism for a man his size and when he scores takedowns, opponents are in deep trouble and likely facing vicious ground-and-pound punishment. Lesnar has powerful strikes from his stand-up game as well, but he showed a reluctance to taking punches in his matches with Carwin and Velasquez. However, I’m not in the camp of those stating with authority that the fight is over if Lesnar can’t score a takedown. Hunt is, without question, the superior striker, but Lesnar’s heavy hands still give him a chance if he can stay away from Hunt’s haymakers. Speaking of those, Hunt possesses the most power of any fighter on the entire roster. He has scored one-punch, walk-off KOs in each of his last four wins over Struve, Roy Nelson, Bigfoot Silva and Mir. I don’t like to eat ‘chalk’ and -170 is fairly expensive. Nevertheless, I’ll go with 1.5 units on Hunt at -170.
Silva has never been an underdog in his entire career, but he’s a massive ‘dog going up against Cormier, the light-heavyweight champ. As of Friday, most spots had Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) listed as a -475 ‘chalk,’ while ‘The Spider’ was a +385 underdog (risk $100 to win $385). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -165, ‘over’ +140).
Silva (33-7, 1 NC MMA, 16-3, 1 NC UFC) was scheduled to face Uriah Hall at UFC 198 in Brazil on May 14, but he fell ill the week of the fight and had to have his gallbladder removed. There was speculation in late May and early June that Hall-Silva might get added to the 200 card, but it didn’t happen.
With Jones out, though, Silva volunteered his services and faces a daunting task on two days of notice. Silva faces a decisive size disadvantage and moves up a weight class here. The 41-year-old Brazilian legend has fought at light heavyweight before, beating Forrest Griffin by first-round KO at UFC 101 and doing the same thing to Stephan Bonnar at UFC 153.
In fact, the win over Bonnar was the last time Silva tasted a victory, which was Oct. 13 in 2012. Silva saw his UFC-record 16-fight winning streak ended at UFC 162 when his show-boating ways got the best of him when Chris Weidman KO’d him late in the second stanza.
In the rematch at UFC 168, Weidman dominated the first round and had Silva badly hurt. Then in Round 2, Silva suffered one of the most grotesque injuries in the sport’s history when a checked leg kicked by Weidman resulted in a compound fracture of Silva’s lower left leg.
He made an incredible recovery, however, and was back in the Octagon 13 months later to face Nick Diaz at UFC 183. Silva captured a UD win, but the result was changed to a no-decision after he popped dirty for multiple banned substances. He was given a nine-month suspension by the Nevada Athletic Commission.
Silva returned to the cage in February and took on Michael Bisping at UFC London. Silva took a narrow UD defeat in a bout that garnered Fight of the Night honors.
Since taking his only career loss to Jones at UFC 182, Cormier won the light-heavyweight belt by rallying to dust Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson by third-round submission. In his first title defense against Alexander Gustafsson, Cormier shook off a big flying knee that had him badly hurt midway through the fight and went on to collect a split-decision victory.
Cormier owns notable career wins over the likes of Bigfoot Silva, Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Dan Henderson. He was the Strikeforce heavyweight champ and made his debut at 205 pounds with the win over Henderson.
Prediction: This matchup reminds me of Cormier’s fight against Henderson in terms of the size difference. Cormier is a natural heavyweight, while Silva is a natural middleweight. I love Silva embracing this enormous challenge and though I’m sure it will pad his wallet handsomely, I think it’s a bad career move. Now obviously, as long as the fight is standing, Silva certainly has a chance of landing a crazy kick or spinning elbow of some sort. Without a doubt, much crazier things have happened. But I’m extremely confident Cormier’s size and wrestling will run the day. My only slight hesitation is that this feels like a letdown spot if we compare MMA to football. Cormier has been prepping for his arch rival and now he fights a guy that’s a monster underdog. Nevertheless, I like two units on the prop bet for Cormier to win inside the distance at a -135 price.
In a rematch of the UFC 156 headliner, Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar (20-4-1 MMA, 14-4-1 UFC) will face Jose Aldo for the interim featherweight championship formerly held by Aldo, who won a close UD over Edgar in their first meeting. That fight represented Edgar’s debut at 145 pounds.
Since then, the 34-year-old Edgar has been on a roll, ripping off five consecutive wins over Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes. Edgar KO’d Mendes in the first round this past December.
Aldo (25-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) is off his first loss in more than a decade, losing in only 13 seconds to Conor McGregor by KO. Aldo has been the only champ in featherweight history before the defeat. He owns career wins over Mendes (twice), Ricardo Lamas, ‘The Korean Zombie,’ Kenny Florian, Mark Hominick, Swanson and Faber.
As of Friday, most spots had Edgar as a -125 favorite. The total was 4.5 rounds (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ +100). The winner is expected to unify the belt against the current champ in McGregor, who stated earlier this week that he does intend to go back down to 145 after facing Nate Diaz at UFC 202.
Prediction: I would like Edgar, the former lightweight champ, at this inexpensive price against ANYBODY in the 145 or 155-pound division this weekend. He is in his prime and ready for the performance of his career. Give me six units on Edgar at -125. Also, give me one unit on Edgar to win by KO/TKO for a sweet +380 return.
In the opener of the main card at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, former heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez (13-2 MMA, 11-2 UFC) will face Travis Browne. As of Friday, most books had Velasquez installed as a -275 favorite. Browne is +235 on the comeback. The total is 1.5 rounds (-115 either way).
Velasquez, the two-time former heavyweight kingpin, has fought just once since beating Junior dos Santos for a second time at UFC 166 in October of 2013. Various injuries have kept him out of action since with just one exception. He made a bad mistake in only going down to Mexico City a little more than a week before taking on Fabrico Werdum, who fought there previously and spent an entire month prepping for the UFC 188 showdown.
Werdum was clearly more acclimated to the high elevation in Mexico City, whereas we saw Velasquez’s greatest strength – his endless cardio, especially for a heavyweight – become a weakness. Velasquez gassed out early and was getting pounded in the stand-up exchanges through the first two rounds. Then early in Round 3, Velasquez shot for a takedown and Werdum sprawled beautifully and caught Cain in a nasty guillotine choke to win the belt.
Browne (18-3-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has earned KO of the Night honors four times in victories over Stefan Struve, Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. His defeats have come to Bigfoot Silva, Fabricio Werdum and Andrei Arlovski. He has been an underdog three times, compiling a 2-0-1 record. He beat Overeem and Barnett as a ‘dog and fought Cheick Kongo to a draw in a similar spot.
Twelve of Browne’s last 16 fights have ended in Round 1. Eight of Velasquez’s 13 wins have come by first-round finishes.
Prediction: Those stats have me loving the ‘under’ here. I also think Browne has an excellent shot and I won’t turn him down at the generous underdog odds. Give me three units on ‘under’ 1.5 (-115) and I’ll go with Browne at +235 for one unit.
