UFC 201 Preview & Picks
By Brian Edwards
The Ultimate Fighting Championship will make its third appearance at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday night for UFC 201. The promotion is bringing an 11-fight card that’ll be headlined by a battle for the welterweight championship between the champion ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler and fourth-ranked contender Tyron Woodley.
As of Thursday, most betting shops had Lawler (27-10, 1 NC MMA, 12-4 UFC) installed as a -180 favorite with Woodley available for a +150 return on the comeback (risk $100 to win $150). The total was 2.5 rounds (-150 for the ‘over,’ +130 to the ‘under’).
By Friday afternoon, Lawler was all the way down to -150, leaving Woodley as the +130 underdog. Many books opened the champ in the -280 range. Even on Monday and Tuesday of this week, Lawler was as expensive as -220 at some shops.
Bettors looking to shave some of the price off of Lawler but still support his cause have other options besides the straight price. Gamblers can take Lawler to win inside the distance (+136 at 5Dimes.eu), win by TKO/KO (+145) and by submission (23/1).
Lawler began his second tour of duty in the UFC in February of 2013 when he scored a first-round knockout over Josh Koscheck, earning KO of the Night honors in the process. After beating Bobby Voelker and Rory MacDonald later that year, he earned a shot at the 170-pound strap vacated by Georges St. Pierre against Johny Hendricks at UFC 171 in March of 2014.
Lawler and Hendricks waged the 2014 Fight of the Year. Hendricks won the first two rounds, but Lawler came on strong in the third and fourth and had ‘Bigg Rigg’ in all sorts of trouble. However, in the fifth and final round, Hendricks was able to score a takedown about midway through the stanza and Lawler was never able to get back to his feet, resulting in a unanimous-decision win for Hendricks (48-47 from all three judges).
Nine weeks later, Lawler returned to the Octagon and captured a third-round TKO victory over Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173. Eight weeks later, Lawler squared off against Matt Brown in the UFC on FOX 12 headliner. Brown was riding a seven-fight winning streak and the bout was dubbed a title-eliminator fight with the winner facing Hendricks for the 170-pound strap.
Lawler won by UD (49-46 twice, 48-47 once) in an exciting back-and-forth scrap. Then in the rematch with Hendricks at UFC 181, Lawler came on strong in the fourth and fifth rounds to capture a split-decision win and win the belt.
Since then, ‘Ruthless’ has successfully defended his title in a pair of wars that most likely make any MMA fan’s Top 10 all-time fights. At UFC 189 in July of 2015, Lawler and Rory MacDonald waged what might be the second-bloodiest fight in the promotion’s history (behind Jim Miller-Joe Lauzon I, of course! Note the I because the Miller-Lauzon II rematch was recently scheduled).
Lawler broke MacDonald’s nose about midway through the first round and it leaked like a sieve for the duration of the bout. But ‘The Red King’ hurt Lawler late in the third stanza with a head kick. Lawler backed up and leaned against the fence to recover. MacDonald ran out of time in the round before being able to get a finish, while Lawler was left to stagger back to his corner.
As we found out later, MacDonald was up 3-1 on all three judges’ cards going into the fifth. However, his nose was a mess and when Lawler connected with a strong jab about one minute into the round, MacDonald backed up and as another punch was on its way, he fell to the canvas and covered up.
In his second title defense on Jan. 2 at UFC 195, Lawler again found himself down on the scorecards going into the championship rounds. Carlos ‘The Natural Born Killer’ was using his length and athleticism to get the better of most of the exchanges. Lawler shifted the momentum in the fourth with his heavy strikes.
Lawler poured it on in the fifth, hurting Condit several different times with kicks and punches. Just when it appeared Condit was about to go down, he found another gear from somewhere. He responded with a slew of kicks and a flying knee.
It rarely happens, but it’s one of the most thrilling things to watch in any sport when it unfolds. I’m talking about two fighters literally swinging to the finish in the last 15-20 seconds of a bout. And that’s exactly what we saw with Lawler and Condit.
When the bell sounded, both men instantly leaned against the cage just a few feet apart for a solid minute. They had both given everything they had and left it all in the Octagon. I scored it 48-47 for Condit, but the judges gave Lawler the split-decision nod (47-48, 48-47, 48-47).
Woodley (15-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) once fought for the Strikeforce welterweight strap, but he lost by fourth-round KO to Nate Marquardt. He signed with the UFC afterward and beat Jay Hieron with a 36-second KO in his Octagon debut at UFC 156.
Following a split-decision defeat to Jake Shields at UFC 161, Woodley bounced back to earn KO of the Night honors with his first-round finish of Koscheck at UFC 167. Then Woodley took out Carlos Condit when his knee was injured on one of the former wrestlers’ powerful takedowns in Round 2 at UFC 171.
His attempt to win a third consecutive bout was prevented by MacDonald, who captured a unanimous-decision win in a snoozer of a match. Since then, Woodley has dusted Dong Hyun Kim by first-round KO before garnering a split-decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum.
Woodley, who is 34 years old just like Lawler, hasn’t fought since the win over Gastelum on Jan. 31 of 2015 at UFC 183. He was scheduled to face Hendricks at UFC 192 last October, but ‘Bigg Rigg’ showed up on Tuesday of fight week needing to lose 26 pounds to make weight. While cutting on Friday, Hendricks needed medical treatment and was yanked off of the card.
While fighting for Strikeforce, Woodley collected notable victories over Jordan Mein, Paul Daley and Tarec Saffiedine.
Lawler and Woodley had an intense staredown at weigh-ins. When it was over, both men respectfully nodded at each other but there was no handshake. When asked about the fight by Joe Rogan moments later, Woodley said, “I’m the best welterweight in the world. This has been 10 years in the making. I look to shake the world up.”
Lawler told Rogan, “[Woodley] is a heckuva a competitor, but I’m a fighter. Plain and simple, I’m going to go out there and get a knockout. Let’s do this.”
Prediction: My stance for weeks has been that my pick is Lawler, but I’m not betting on him at a price north of -200. Now with the odds greatly reduced, I’ll go one unit on Lawler at -150.
In the co-main event, third-ranked women’s strawweight contender Rose Namajunas (5-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) will take on fifth-ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz. As of Friday, most spots had Namajunas listed as a -225 ‘chalk,’ while Kowalkiewicz is the +180 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds shaded heavily to the ‘over’ (-230, +190 for the ‘under’).
The 24-year-old Namajunas fought for the inaugural strawweight title at The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale against Carla Esparza, who beat her by rear-naked choke in Round 3 on Dec. 12 of 2014. Since then, Namajunas has won three consecutive fights, including a pair of rear-naked choke finishes of Angela Hill and Paige VanZant.
In her last outing, Namajunas won a UD over Tecia Torres at UFC on FOX 19 in Tampa this past April. The win over Torres avenged Namajunas’s first career loss in July of 2013 under the Invicta FC banner.
Kowalkiewicz (9-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) made her Octagon debut at UFC Orlando last December, capturing a UD victory over Randa Markos (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) as a +150 underdog. The 30-year-old Polish fighter remained undefeated in May at UFC Fight Night 87 with a UD triumph (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) over Heather Joe Clark.
Prediction: I think Namajunas wins, but I don’t want to risk the ‘chalk’ so this is a pass for me.
Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger will square off in a welterweight contest. As of Wednesday, most books had Brown listed as a -325 favorite, leaving ‘The Juggernaut’ as a +265 underdog (risk $100 to win $265). By Friday, a few offshores had Brown down in the -270 range. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -125, ‘over’ +105).
Gamblers can take Brown and not risk as much by going with ‘The Immortal’ to win inside the distance (-160), by TKO/KO (-115) or submission (+350).
Brown (20-14 MMA, 13-8 UFC) has lost three of his last four fights after storming into title contention with seven consecutive wins. He is off a third-round submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198 in Brazil. Brown submitted Tim Means late in the first round at UFC 189, but he dropped back-to-back decisions to Hendricks and Lawler prior to that victory.
Brown has participated in both previous shows at Philips, losing a split decision to ‘The Stun Gun’ at UFC 88 before capturing a dominant UD win over Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson, who hasn’t lost since that defeat at UFC 145.
During Brown’s seven-fight winning streak, he scored finished in six of those bouts and collected four fight-night bonuses. His loss to Lawler also garnered Fight of the Night honors. Brown owns other notable career victories over the likes of Erick Silva, Mike Pyle, Jordan Mein, Mike ‘Quick’ Swick and John Howard.
Ellenberger (30-11 MMA, 9-7) has lost five of his last six fights after beginning his UFC tenure with an 8-2 record. His first two defeats came by split decision against Condit and by second-round TKO to Martin Kampmann. The 31-year-old Omaha native has wins over Nate Marquardt, Diego Sanchez, Jake Shields, John Howard, Josh Koscheck and Mike Pyle.
After his win over Marquardt at UFC 158 in March of 2013, Ellenberger was on the cusp of a title shot going into his showdown with Rory MacDonald. Ellenberger talked trash galore going into the fight, but then he was extremely hesitant to engage for the entire fight. MacDonald won a snoozer and Ellenberger hasn’t been the same fighter since then.
He was finished by Lawler and Gastelum before submitting a washed-up Koscheck at UFC 184. After losing by first-round KO to ‘Wonderboy’ and dropping a AD to Saffiedine in his last outing, Ellenberger is almost certainly in must-win mode vs. Brown in order to keep his job.
Prediction: This is a step down in competition for Brown, who has only lost to the current champ, the previous champ and third-ranked Maia going back to 2012. Ellenberger has fallen out of the rankings and really hasn’t done anything of note since knocking out Marquardt. I think Brown is going to destroy him and most likely do so with a first-round KO. With that said, I don’t lay ‘chalk’ north of -200, so Brown at the straight price is not a consideration here. Therefore, I’ll go four units on ‘under’ 1.5 at the -125 price, one unit on Brown to win inside the distance (-160) and one unit on Brown to win by KO/TKO (-115).
When flyweight Justin Scroggins struggled with weight-cutting issues Friday, his main-card scrap with Ian McCall was cancelled. McCall made weight and could serve as an alternate if any issues arise with the two other flyweight bouts.
In a bantamweight contest, Erik Perez (15-6 MMA, 5-2 UFC) will take on Francisco Rivera. On Friday, most books had Perez installed as a -170 favorite, while Rivera was +145 on the comeback. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).
Perez is a 26-year-old Mexican with UFC wins over John Albert, Ken Stone, Byron Bloodworth, Edwin Figueroa and Taylor Lapilus. His defeats came against Bryan Caraway and Takeya Mizugaki.
Rivera (11-6 1 NC MMA, 4-5 1 NC UFC) has dropped four of his last five fights, going down against Mizugaki, Urijah Faber, John Lineker and Brad Pickett. In the middle of that five-fight slump, the 34-year-old Rivera did manage a first-round KO win over Alex Caceres in just 21 seconds.
Prediction: I’ll pass.
With Scroggins-McCall scrapped, a flyweight fight between Ryan Benoit (8-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) and Fredy Serrano was elevated to the main card. As of Friday, most spots had Serrano as a -120 favorite with Benoit at +100. The total was 2.5 rounds (-110 either way).
Serrano (3-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is a 36-year-old from Colombia who represented his country at the 2008 Olympics. He has a pair of finishes in UFC wins over Bentley Syler and Yao Zhikui.
Prediction: Give me one unit on Serrano (-120).
The prelims headliner will feature a pair of light heavyweights in Ed ‘Short Fuse’ Herman and Nikita Krylov. As of Friday, most books had Krylov as a -205 ‘chalk,’ leaving Herman as the +175 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -130, ‘over’ +110).
The 35-year-old Herman (23-11 1 NC MMA, 10-7 1 NC UFC) is off a Performance of the Night win over Tim Boetsch by second-round TKO in January. Herman has notable career wins over Rafael Natal, Trevor Smith, Clifford Starks, Kyle Noke and Glover Teixeira.
Krylov (20-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC) has won four consecutive fights since being submitted by Ovince St. Preux in the first round at UFC 171 in March of 2014. He has three submissions and one KO during his winning streak, including three first-round finishes.
Prediction: How this for an incredible stat: 22 of Krylov’s 24 fight have ended in the first round. In seven of Herman’s last 11 fights, the ‘under’ would’ve been a winner if it was set at 1.5 like it is for this matchup. I’ll go with two units on ‘under’ 1.5 (-130).
**B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets**
-- The main card starts at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on PPV. The prelims will feature four fights on Fox Sports 2 starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. There are two bouts on FightPass beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
-- Woodley has only fought past the third round once in his career. He lost that fight to Marquardt in Round 4.
-- One more pick: Ross Pearson, the TUF 9 winner, is making his welterweight debut against Jorge Masvidal, who has lost three of his last four fights. Pearson is off a narrow decision loss to Will Brooks only three weeks ago. (The only quicker turnaround that I can remember in my many years of covering the UFC was when Chris Leben beat Yoshihiro Akiyama in a Fight of the Nights just two weeks after garnering KO of the Night honors in a win over Aaron Simpson. Damn, I miss ‘The Crippler!’) I like Pearson as a +190 underdog for one unit.
-- Before the UFC sale was made official, analyst Joe Rogan indicated that he would leave his job if the sale came to fruition. Well, Dana White apparently talked him out of it. Rogan has signed a one-year contract to remain with the promotion, but he’ll no longer cover international fights. He’ll only work the pay-per-view card in America moving forward. On his podcast this week, Rogan said he’s “year-to-year” from now on.
-- Globo reported Wednesday that Vitor Belfort will face Gegard Mousasi at UFC 204. I would assume this will probably take the co-main event slot for this show that’ll be headlined by Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson.
-- Former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold told ESPN’s Brett Okamoto on his podcast that he “wants Anderson Silva” for his next fight after losing the title to Bisping.
