Saturday 7/2/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 20:00

Germany

v

Italy

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		13/10	2	29/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HLNWNWNDNWNW​ Most recent​	4 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 1	HWNWNWNWNLNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Italy have kept five clean sheets in their last six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Italy produced a defensive masterclass to knock holders Spain out of the tournament and are likely to make life tough for Germany in Bordeaux. The Azzurri’s cautious, counter-attacking style is perfectly suited to taking on the biggest teams and Germany may find it much tougher to find the breakthrough than they did against Slovakia.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Viktor Kassai STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

European Championships Su 3Jul 20:00

France

v

Iceland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		4/9	7/2	8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
NWNWNWNWNDNW​ Most recent​	3 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 1 3 - 1	ALHWNDNDHWNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Iceland have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten games

EXPERT VERDICT: Iceland are not getting the credit they deserve for knocking out England on Monday but their amazing adventure is set to come to an end at the Stade de France. France have been making life hard for themselves by making slow starts but it could be different against Iceland, who have conceded in every one of their four matches.

RECOMMENDATION: France-France double result
1

 

[superbeets]

Germany v Italy Saturday (2000 BST)

Opta facts:

• Germany have never beaten Italy at a major tournament (D4 L4). Worse still, they have lost all four of their games against Italy in the knockout stages: three times at the World Cup (semi-final in 1970, final in 1982, semi-final in 2006) and once at the European Championships (semi-final in 2012).
• 15 of the 18 goals scored in Germany and Italy's previous eight encounters at major tournaments have come after half-time, including seven in extra-time (39%).
• Germany have won 14 of their last 17 games at major tournaments, drawing two and losing one (1-2 v Italy in the Euro 2012 semi-finals).
• Germany are the only team yet to concede a single goal so far at Euro 2016. The only previous time they kept clean sheets in their first four games at a major tournament was in the 1978 World Cup.
• In major tournaments (WC & EC), Germany haven't conceded a goal in the last 480 minutes. The last player to score past Manuel Neuer was Oscar in the 2014 World Cup semi-final.
• Germany have averaged 69% possession over their first four games, the highest ratio so far at Euro 2016.
• Italy have kept 19 clean sheets in 37 Euros games, more than any other team in the history of the tournament and just ahead of Germany (18 clean sheets in 47 games). They've only conceded one goal at Euro 2016.
• Italy have picked up more cards than any other team at Euro 2016 (13 in four games).

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]France v Iceland (2000 BST)[/h]
Opta facts:

• The last two encounters between France and Iceland have produced 10 goals, both finishing 3-2 to the French.
• 11 of France's last 12 goals at the EURO have been scored after half-time.
• 50% of France's goals at EURO 2016 have been headers (3 out of 6).
• France have attempted 44 more shots than Iceland at EURO 2016 but have scored the same number of goals (6).
• Iceland - taking part in their first ever major tournament - are still unbeaten at EURO 2016, drawing their first two games and winning the next two. In fact, they have only lost once across their last 10 competitive matches (W5 D4).
• Iceland are one of two teams, alongside Wales, to have scored in all of their games at EURO 2016.
• All four of Iceland's games at EURO 2016 have seen both teams score.
• Iceland's six goals at EURO 2016 have been scored by six different players (Bjarnason, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Bödvarsson, Traustason, Ragnar Sigurdsson & Sigthorsson).
• The two goals scored from throw-ins at EURO 2016 have both come from Iceland. Kari Arnason has been the assist provider both times.
• Iceland have averaged the lowest possession at EURO 2016 so far (29.7%).
• Iceland have started with the same lineup in all four of their games at EURO 2016.
• None of France's last 16 games at the Stade de France has ended in a draw (W11 L5). No team has ever beaten them there in a major tournament (W4 D1 at World Cup 1998 and EURO 2016).
• Meanwhile, Iceland's two previous games at the Stade de France have ended 3-2 to the French in October 1999 and 2-1 to Iceland against Austria in this year's European Championships.
• Antoine Griezmann has scored three of France's last four goals. However he's never found the net for the French national team at the Stade de France (603 minutes).
• Griezmann is the first French player to score three goals in a EURO since Zinedine Zidane in 2004.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coke Zero 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts

One week after seeing an average speed at 80 mph at Sonoma where the drivers made left and right turns on the road course, the Sprint Cup Series takes it up a notch with speeds at over 200 mph at Daytona International Speedway this Saturday night for the Coke Zero 400. It's all left turns, it's real fast and the restrictor-plates make almost all the cars equal meaning that up to 35 of the 40 drivers can realistically win.

Through 16 races we've seen 11 different winners, and all of them are candidates to win this week. To start the handicapping process you'll want to look at what happened during Daytona Speedweeks in February and then you'll also want to include what happened May 1 at Talladega Superspeedway. Daytona and Talladega race very different from each other, but since they're the only two tracks that use the plate package, it's a good measuring tool.

Or, maybe better yet for handicapping Daytona, you just throw some darts or pull a car number out of a hat. The randomness of cars getting involved in another drivers mess is greater for the two plate races. They go rows of cars with side-by-side racing at insane speeds and when one car wiggles just a bit it can take out dozen cars easy. There's just no where for the drivers to go when this happens.

Because of that randomness and the cars being equal, you're going to get nice odds on just about every driver, or at least the top drivers that are usually in the 8/1 range. If looking to get someone like Danica Patrick at 500/1 odds, you're out of luck this week. All the regular long shots have their odds reduced to around 60/1 just because they really can win. Even Danica can win. It's her best shot -- she's finished eighth twice at Daytona.

Now I certainly won't have a ticket on Danica to win, but she's the perfect example of how anyone can win. We've seen the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Aric Almirola all win at Daytona since 2011. Ragan's other career Cup win came at Talladega in 2013 and he was pushed to the front by teammate David Gilliland who finished second -- a spectacular exacta if we had that.

Side Note: Nevada sports books will actually have pools like horse races for NASCAR races by football season as US Fantasy has been approved by the state to take Fantasy-type wagers at sports books. The take-out in the pools are expected to be much better than horse racing with only 10 percent juice to be divided between the book operators and US Fantasy. More on that developing story in a few weeks.

The driver we have to key on first is Denny Hamlin, who the Sprint Unlimited non-points race and then the Daytona 500 a week later. Hamlin led a race-high 95 laps in the 500, continuing a strong three year run in plate races. His winning car is on display for fans in Daytona, but the package used can be replicated easily by his team and we should expect Hamlin to be almost as good as he was during Daytona Speedweeks.

The favorite to win Saturday is Dale Earnhardt Jr. who won this race last season giving him four Daytona wins for his career. He's led 593 laps in 33 starts and has compiled an impressive 13.3 average finish. He's desperate for a win this season and looks to be the 12th different driver to win a race this season. However, his two plate races this season are the perfect example of how volatile these races are and how the race favorite still has to have his rating downgraded compared to a normal race on a 1.5-mile track. He was 36th in the 500 and dead last at Talladega thanks to being involved in an early crash.

You can expect all of Hamlin's Joe Gibbs Racing teammates to be almost as good as him. Matt Kenseth led 40 of the final 41 laps in the 500 before being shuffled back to 14th late on the last lap. Kyle Busch would finish third and Carl Edwards fifth. Martin Truex Jr., who uses JGR equipment, was runner-up. The only non-JGR driver to crack the top-five was Kevin Harvick in fourth.

Tony Stewart's Sonoma win on Sunday makes him eligible to be one of the final 16 drivers participating in the seasons final 10 races during the Chase for the Championship. All he has to do now is get himself into 30th-place and he'll be on his way to re-producing the same type of storyline as Kyle Busch last year when he won at Sonoma and it helped propel him to the season title. Stewart is currently in 32nd-place after missing the first eight races, but only needs to make up nine points over the next 10 races.

Before the win, Stewart was listed at 100/1 odds to win the 2016 Chase. That number has dropped to 40/1 now that he's so close to making it. How he'll perform from here on out is still a mystery because it was only his third top-10 in eight races and one of those he needed a mid-race replacement driver to finish at Talladega. However, this win could be a jump start for him, a psychological boost of sorts after all the tragedy he's endured physically and emotionally the past three seasons.

Sunday's win ended an 84-race winless streak. His last win was at Dover in 2013. Stewart hopes his 2016 story ends up just like Busch's did last year. Following Busch's Sonoma, he would go on to win three of the next four races in July and then eventually winning his first title. Stewart is looking to win his fourth title and what a story it would be if he were to ride off into the sunset a champion in his final season like Peyton Manning or John Elway.

Even if he hadn't won last week he'd still be a good candidate to win Saturday night's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway. He's never won the Daytona 500, and he missed his final attempt this year because of an off-season road racing accident, but he is a four-time winner in the summer race at Daytona, the last one coming in 2012. He's also led 668 laps over 34 Daytona starts which is most among all active drivers. Brian Vickers drove his No. 14 to a 26th-place finish in February.

As a reminder to what happened at Talladega in May, Brad Keselowski led a race-high 46 laps to win for the fourth time there -- he still doesn't have a win at Daytona. Kyle Busch was second, Austin Dillon third, Jamie McMurray fourth and Chase Elliott led 27 laps finishing fifth. As for the long shots, Ryan Blaney was ninth and Trevor Bayne was 10th and led 22 laps. Among all those names, Elliott looks like a great candidate to win this week. He should start on the pole again just like he did in the 500 and at Talladega.

Happy Fourth-of-July to all!

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
3) #24 Chase Elliott (15/1)
4) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (12/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (12/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Biffle wins Coke Zero 400 pole
By Reid Spencer, NASCAR Wire Service
Distributed by The Sports Xchange

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Greg Biffle came out of nowhere.
Winless since 2013 and without a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series pole since the fall Charlotte race in 2012, the driver of the No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford scorched Daytona International Speedway on Friday to claim the top starting spot for Saturday night's Coke Zero 400 (at 7:45 p.m. ET on NBC).
In the second and final round of knockout qualifying, Biffle toured the 2.5-mile restrictor-plate track in 46.643 seconds (192.955 mph) to wrestle the Coors Light Pole Award from former RFR teammate Carl Edwards (192.748 mph) by .050 seconds.
The pole was Biffle's second at a plate track, the first coming when he led the field to green in the 2004 Daytona 500, not quite eight months after Biffle won the only plate race of his career--the 2003 Coke Zero 400. Both were career-firsts for the Biff.
All told, Biffle has won 13 poles in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, but Friday's was particularly significant because of the boost it give his organization, which has been struggling for the past few years to find speed in the wake of the departure of veterans Matt Kenseth and Edwards to Joe Gibbs Racing.
"It is a huge confidence-builder, and coming out of here with a good finish, that's a lot of momentum for the team," Biffle said. "Qualifying on the pole, getting a good run and moving on to the next race--we need that.
"We need those good finishes and momentum and encouragement. Winning the pole is all smiles on those guys pushing the car up there and getting the pictures. They're pumped right now. We'll be ready to go tomorrow night."
In a backup car with no practice laps because of a wreck in Saturday morning's practice, Kyle Busch (192.336 mph) qualified third. Biffle's teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (192.320 mph), earned the fourth starting spot, followed by Brad Keselowski (192.254 mph) and Austin Dillon (192.254 mph), who lost the fifth spot to Keselowski on an owner points tiebreaker.
Defending race winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. failed to make the top 12 and will start 16th. Jimmie Johnson (eighth) was the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to advance to the second round, just as Kurt Busch (10th) was the only Stewart-Haas Racing entry to do so.
Earnhardt, however, wasn't particularly concerned about his starting position.
"I think we'll be good," he said. "We worked on our car to try and help it drive better. That might take some straight-line speed out of it, but it's going to hopefully help us be able to make moves we need to make in the race.
"It's going to be slick in the race, and handling is going to be real important. I'm more concerned really with the car driving good. Might not be the fastest car out there, (but) that's not the car that is going to win the race. I think (that's going to be) the guy that's got the best handling package. This place is going to be pretty slick."
Biffle was fastest in both rounds of qualifying, pacing the first session at 192.629 mph.
"After that first session, I knew we had to be worried about (Greg)," Edwards said. "We ran a really good lap in the second session, but those guys were fast. They put the hard work in, they deserve it and I know how hard those guys work over there.
"And I guess in a way, it's cool to see them have success. You hate to get beat by anyone, but knowing those guys and knowing how much they work, it's good to see them have this day."
Note: Josh Wise failed to make the 40-car field.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Qualifying -- Coke Zero 400 Powered by Coca-Cola
Daytona International Speedway
Daytona Beach, Florida
Friday, July 01, 2016
1. (16) Greg Biffle, Ford, 192.955 mph.
2. (19) Carl Edwards, Toyota, 192.748 mph.
3. (18) Kyle Busch, Toyota, 192.336 mph.
4. (17) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford, 192.320 mph.
5. (2) Brad Keselowski, Ford, 192.254 mph.
6. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet, 192.254 mph.
7. (20) Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 192.234 mph.
8. (48) Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 192.160 mph.
9. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota, 191.975 mph.
10. (41) Kurt Busch, Chevrolet, 191.865 mph.
11. (22) Joey Logano, Ford, 191.400 mph.
12. (21) Ryan Blaney #, Ford, 191.253 mph.
13. (6) Trevor Bayne, Ford, 191.192 mph.
14. (43) Aric Almirola, Ford, 191.115 mph.
15. (78) Martin Truex Jr., Toyota, 191.103 mph.
16. (88) Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet, 191.071 mph.
17. (42) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet, 190.933 mph.
18. (5) Kasey Kahne, Chevrolet, 190.783 mph.
19. (14) Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 190.670 mph.
20. (13) Casey Mears, Chevrolet, 190.476 mph.
21. (4) Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 190.444 mph.
22. (10) Danica Patrick, Chevrolet, 190.440 mph.
23. (31) Ryan Newman, Chevrolet, 190.375 mph.
24. (24) Chase Elliott #, Chevrolet, 190.359 mph.
25. (34) Chris Buescher #, Ford, 190.275 mph.
26. (47) AJ Allmendinger, Chevrolet, 189.877 mph.
27. (27) Paul Menard, Chevrolet, 189.693 mph.
28. (35) David Gilliland, Ford, 189.470 mph.
29. (1) Jamie McMurray, Chevrolet, 189.211 mph.
30. (44) Brian Scott #, Ford, 188.964 mph.
31. (15) Clint Bowyer, Chevrolet, 188.727 mph.
32. (32) Bobby Labonte, Ford, 188.391 mph.
33. (46) Michael Annett, Chevrolet, 188.344 mph.
34. (38) Landon Cassill, Ford, 188.249 mph.
35. (98) Cole Whitt, Toyota, 187.629 mph.
36. (83) Matt DiBenedetto, Toyota, 187.563 mph.
37. (95) Michael McDowell, Chevrolet, 187.480 mph.
38. (23) David Ragan, Toyota, 187.426 mph.
39. (55) Reed Sorenson, Toyota, 187.025 mph.
40. (7) Regan Smith, Chevrolet, 0.000 mph.
1 drivers failed to qualify.
41. (30) Josh Wise, Chevrolet, 184.106 mph.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Euro 2016 quarterfinals betting cheat sheet and odds

The final two quarterfinals of Euro 2016 couldn't be more different. One match features two perennial world powers will the other features the host nation taking on the upstarts from Iceland.

Defensive Dynamos

Goals could be hard to come by at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux on Saturday as Germany (+115) locks horns with Italy (+290) in a Euro 2016 quarterfinal match. The Germans have been the class of the tournament to date, having yet to allow a goal through its first four contests. The Italians have been impressive themselves from a defensive standpoint, surrendering just one goal in four games. Both teams are coming off convincing victories in the Round of 16; the Germans blanked Slovakia 3-0 while Italy upended defending-champion Spain 2-0.

Fan Favorite Face-Off

Soccer minnow Iceland (+700) has stunned opponents and dazzled fans en route to the Euro 2016 quarterfinals - but it will only be the second most-popular team on the field Sunday as it squares off against host France (-225) in Paris. Iceland handed England one of the most embarrassing losses in that nation’s storied history, rallying for a 2-1 victory in the Round of 16. But things won’t get any easier Sunday as it will face a French side that has three wins and a draw through four tournament games. France is coming off an impressive 2-1 win over Ireland in the Round of 16.

News and Notes

* France coach Didier Deschamps doesn’t want his players dealing with distractions ahead of their quarterfinal clash with Iceland. The French side will practice behind closed doors Thursday and Friday after holding an open session Wednesday.

* Germany will look to take advantage of some valuable intel heading into its Round of 8 encounter with Italy. Midfielder Sami Khedira plays for Juventus of the top Italian league, and is familiar with the national team’s play style and habits.

Injury Updates

* Italy midfielder Daniele De Rossi is doubtful for Saturday’s game after he missed a second day of training Wednesday. That’s bad news for the Italians, who have already lost primary replacement Thiago Motta to a yellow card suspension.

* The Italians are also facing the likely absence of skilled winger Antonio Candreva. The Lazio star suffered a groin injury in the group stage against Sweden and has missed the past two games.

Weather Watch

* Germany and Italy will play under clear skies in Bordeaux, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-high 60s by kickoff.

* The forecast for France-Ireland isn’t as optimistic; there’s a 47 percent chance of rain at Stade de France, for Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 60s.

Props of the Day

* Germany/Italy, Total Goals O/U: Under 3.5 (-650): You won’t make a lot of folding money with this one, but you also won’t find many safer bets than this O/U. The teams have combined to allow just one goal, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the victor escape with a 1-0 triumph.

* France/Iceland, Olivier Giroud to Score and France to Win: Yes (+150): Giroud has been one of the top players in the tournament, and with a berth in the semifinals on the line in Paris, bettors should expect him to be at his best. Iceland’s Cinderella run should come to an end this weekend.

Key Trends and Stats

* Italy has had Germany’s number in recent international spectacles, defeating them in the Euro 2012 semifinals and upending them in the semis of the 2006 World Cup.

* The Germans have reached the semifinals in each of their last five major international tournaments dating back to 2006.

* France has dominated the head-to-head series, racking up eight victories and three draws in 11 all-time meetings.

* The hosts haven’t dropped a major tournament match on home soil since 1960, winning 14 games and drawing twice over that span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Euro Quarterfinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Saturday, July 2 - Germany vs. Italy

Venue: Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, Bordeaux
TV/Time: ESPN2, 3:00 p.m. ET

If Germany had been 5/4 to beat Italy in the first game of this tournament it would be seen as a smashing bet, but no big team have outperformed expectations at this tournament quite like Italy, who were written off as a dud generation just three weeks ago.

This is largely down to manager Antonio Conte, who gets the absolute maximum out of his players, and the best defence in the tournament.

They are 3/1 to win this match, but their aim here, as it was in their 2-0 wins over Spain and Belgium, will be to frustrate Germany, who are a more complete side than Italy have yet faced.

The tournament has been extremely low-scoring - none of Italy’s games have yielded more than two goals - and so the draw is correspondingly short at 2/1.

There is a saying that ‘Germany win, unless they play Italy’, and certainly the Italians have historically had the better of the Germans, having knocked them out in both 2012 and 2006.

Too little was made before the tournament of quite how good Italy’s defence is. In knockout football, having a good defence is often better than having a good attack, and Italy can produce yet another big performance to knock Germany out. They may struggle to do it in normal time though, so 6/4 in the ‘To Qualify’ market appeals most.

Prediction: Italy to qualify at 6/4


Sunday, July 3 - France vs. Iceland

Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
TV/Time: ESPN2, 3:00 p.m. ET

By far the biggest mismatch in the quarter-finals sees the hosts France take on ultra-minnows Iceland, who provided one of international football’s greatest shocks by dumping out England on Monday.

Along with 330,000 from Iceland, the whole of France celebrated the result in Nice as, however much Iceland deserved their victory, they provide an easier challenge than England.

France are 2/5 to win with Iceland available at 8/1. A draw is 4/1. France are yet to play a difficult game at this tournament, but they produced their best performance in their win over Ireland, a score of 2-1 flattering Martin O’Neill’s side.

Antoine Griezmann scored both of France’s goals and there seems little reason why he is longer in the first goalscorer markets than Olivier Giroud.

Griezmann is less of a natural striker than Giroud at club level, but for France they virtually play as a pair, with Giroud holding the ball up for the Atletico man. A particularly good example of this was the build-up to their equaliser against Ireland.

France’s attacking play is much more imaginative and intricate than England’s, and they should have too much for a heroic Iceland team. Griezmann’s pace can unlock a steady, but slow defence. At 4/1 he is a good bet to score first.

Prediction: Antoine Griezmann to score first at 4/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drivers to Watch - Daytona

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Coke Zero 400
Saturday, July 2nd – 7:45 p.m. EDT
Daytona International Speedway – Daytona Beach, FL

Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be looking to win his second consecutive and third total Coke Zero 400 in Daytona Beach on Saturday.

The driver finished this race in 2:58:58 a year ago, and it was his first time coming away victorious on the 2.5-mile track since 2001. He finished in 2:32:17 that year and will be hoping that he can finish in something close to that amount of time this year.

Earnhardt Jr. will not, however, be a threat to reach the record number of wins at this race. That belongs to David Pearson, who has won this event five times in his career. Tony Stewart, meanwhile, is a threat to reach that mark.

Stewart has won this race four times and he’ll certainly be motivated to get this victory, as he won’t have any more chances to catch the record. He is retiring after the season, so this is his final Coke Zero 400.

Wood Brothers Racing is the team that has had the most success at this event in the past, winning a total of nine times. Hendrick Motorsports is somewhat close, winning six times in the history of this race.

With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who are some of the better picks to win this thing on Saturday:

Drivers to Watch

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1) - Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had a very disappointing season thus far, as he has not yet won a race on the season. Earnhardt Jr. has, however, racked up five top-five finishes on the year and he came in second place three races ago. With Earnhardt Jr. hungry to earn his first victory of the year, look for him to come out with some serious focus on Saturday. That is not going to be good news for the other drivers, though. Earnhardt Jr. is already one of the best active drivers at Daytona International Speedway and will be gunning for his second straight victory at this event on Saturday. At 6/1, Earnhardt Jr. is worth putting a few units on at a track where he is very comfortable racing.

Joey Logano (12/1) - Joey Logano has been on a tear heading into this race, finishing in the top-five at each of the past three races. He came away victorious at the FireKeepers Casino 400 two races ago and followed it up with a third place finish last week. Now Logano will be looking to win his first ever Coke Zero 400 and he certainly has the talent to do so. He is one of the best drivers in the world and is somebody that nobody will be counting out heading into the race. He’s worth putting a few units on at 12/1, as he could pay off huge on Saturday.

Tony Stewart (25/1) - Tony Stewart is the best active driver at Daytona International Speedway, as he is looking to win his fifth Coke Zero 400 on Saturday. Not only is Stewart dominant at this track, but he also is coming into this race in tremendous form. Stewart finished in seventh place at the FireKeepers Casino 400 a few weeks ago and he followed it up with a first place finish at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 last week. With some extremely favorable odds at 25/1, it’s worth putting a unit or two on the veteran this week.

Aric Almirola (50/1) - There are not many dark horse candidates worth picking this week, but Almirola certainly sticks out at 50/1 to win this race on Saturday. Unlike many other guys with odds like that in the past, Almirola actually came away victorious at this race in 2014. The race had to be shortened that year due to rain, but everybody had to drive under the same circumstances and it’s not fair to downplay his victory. Almirola will also be pretty eager to finish this race in a good spot, as he has not yet earned a top-10 finish on the season.

Odds to win Coke Zero 400 -

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1
Denny Hamlin 9/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Kyle Busch 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Chase Elliott 18/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Austin Dillon 25/1
Kyle Larson 25/1
Tony Stewart 25/1
Jamie McMurray 28/1
Ryan Blaney 28/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Trevor Bayne 40/1
AJ Allmendinger 50/1
Aric Almirola 50/1
Danica Patrick 55/1
Regan Smith 55/1

Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Stars (4-12) at Lynx (13-3)

Date: July 02, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Minnesota Lynx try to end a three-game skid when they host the San Antonio Stars on Saturday night at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

Minnesota (13-3) won 13 in a row to break its own WNBA record for consecutive victories to start a season. The defending WNBA champions then fell to the Los Angeles Sparks, the Washington Mystics and the New York Liberty. The losses dropped the Lynx to second place in the Western Conference, two games behind Los Angeles.

"We've won 13 games, played at a really high level, (and) it's a very natural thing that the slippage happens," Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve said. "I don't necessarily sense it. I didn't feel like, 'Come on, guys, we are winning games but we have to fix this.' I think a little bit of it is not overreacting to it. We're not made of steel. ... We're human. ... I think the important thing is to make sure that you don't make excuses, you don't settle, and you know what you have to do to get back on track."

The Lynx are coming off a 95-92 overtime loss to the Liberty. Maya Moore scored 24 points for Minnesota, but it wasn't enough to overcome a 30-point performance by New York's Sugar Rodgers.

San Antonio (4-12) has lost five of its last seven games, but is coming off an 87-85 overtime victory over the Indiana Fever. Moriah Jefferson scored 31 points on 13-of-18 shooting and won the game with putback at the buzzer. Kayla McBride added 17 points despite making just 6 of 21 field-goal attempts.

Moore is fifth in the WNBA in scoring at 18.8 points per game. Teammate Sylvia Fowles is fourth in field-goal percentage at 58.8 percent.

Jefferson is fifth in 3-point shooting at 44.4 percent.

This is the first time Minnesota and San Antonio have met this season. They meet again July 12 and Sept. 11.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sun (3-13) at Wings (8-9)

Date: July 02, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Connecticut Sun will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak when they visit the Dallas Wings on Saturday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas.

Dallas (8-9) is third in the WNBA's Western Conference, 7 1/2 games behind first-place Los Angeles. The Wings had won four in a row before suffering back-to-back losses to the Indiana Fever and the Los Angeles Sparks.

The Wings are coming off an 83-78 victory over the Seattle Storm. Rookie Aerial Powers came off the bench to score a team-high 19 points for Dallas, the fourth time this season she has led the team in scoring. She made a go-ahead 3-pointer with 54 seconds remaining. Courtney Paris recorded a double-double, finishing with 12 points and 12 rebounds.

Connecticut (3-13) is last in the Eastern Conference. The Sun has lost three in a row and six of its last seven.

The Sun, which is wrapping up a four-game road trip, is coming off an 86-75 loss to the Phoenix Mercury. Alex Bentley led the team with 20 points and six assists. Alyssa Thomas had 18 points and eight rebounds. Jonquel Jones came off the bench to post 16 points on 6-of-7 shooting.

This the first time Connecticut and Dallas have met this season. They will play again July 20 and Sept. 16.

Odyssey Sims leads Dallas and ranks 13th in the WNBA in scoring at 15.2 points per game. Sims shot 47.2 percent from the field during her team's four-game winning streak from June 16-23, well above her season shooting percentage of 38.3 percent.

Paris is third in the league in rebounding, averaging 8.8 rebounds per game. Erin Phillips is third in free-throw shooting at 92.9 percent.

Bentley leads Connecticut in scoring at 13.8 points per game. Jasmine Thomas is fifth in the WNBA in assists, averaging 4.6 per game. Alyssa Thomas is fifth in steals, averaging 1.6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a couple of Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on tap at Gulfstream Park today on their Summit of Speed card.

The $250,000 Smile Sprint (G2) offers the winner an all-expenses paid trip and starting berth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). A field of seven will head to the gate.

Limousine Liberal is the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Ben Colebrook. The gelding ships in from Kentucky where in his last outing he was beaten a tough head in the Aristides (G3) at Churchill Downs.

After running second in last year’s King’s Bishop (G1) and Gallant Bob (G3) he looked like a player in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and was sent off at 13-1 but was not much of a threat in a 11th place finish.

His main foes on Saturday will be the David Jacobson trained Chief Lion, who earned triple digit Beyers in his first two starts after the trainer claimed him for $62,500, and the speedy Delta Bluesman, who took Alw-3 optional claimers gate to wire last out at Monmouth Park.

He did the same thing two back in the Decathlon, but was disqualified for interference and placed fifth.

The $250,000 Princess Rooney (G2) winner will earn a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Eight will compete led by Birdatthewire, who is without a win since taking the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita last December.

As you can see below I am going with Spelling Again, who is coming off a game third in the Winning Colors (G3) last out at Churchill Downs.

Coming up on Sunday I will break down the $1 million Queen’s Plate from Woodbine, the first jewel of Canada’s Triple Crown.


Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#5 Coasted 4-1
#1 Golden Mischief 5-2
#3 Libby's Tail 7-2
#6 Raging Town 6-1

Analysis: Coasted is a $210,000 Keeneland purchase by Tizway out of the stakes winner Malibu Pier ($466,200) who has dropped one winner to date. The filly has been working sharply for the Gyamarti barn that hits at a 17% clip (with a +ROI) with first timers. The filly looks ready to fire at first asking for an underrated barn.

Golden Mischief was beaten just a neck as the chalk in her debut at Churchill Downs and that earned her a start in the Astoria here on June 9 where she chased the early pace and weakened to finish fourth. She is out of a stakes placed Carson City mare that has dropped three winners. She still needs to move forward to earn a speed fig good enough to win at this level and is likely going to get bet down from her 5-2 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Mother Goose G1 (5:45 ET)
#7 Lightstream 5-1
#6 Rachel's Valentina 9-5
#5 Lewis Bay 3-1
#2 Off the Tracks 3-1

Analysis: Lightstream comes into this race undefeated in three starts and goes a route of ground for the first time. The filly popped a 103 Beyer in her debut win at Gulfstream Park back in March and while that number might be generous, three fillies she beat came back to graduate in their next starts. She then shipped to Keeneland and won the seven furlong Beaumont (G3), coming up the inside with a good late rally. Going to turf seemed like an odd move last out and she spotted the field a couple of lengths when she was off poorly, but came with a good late rally to win the Soaring Softly here. She has plenty of pedigree to handle the added ground as she is by Harlan's Holiday out of the stakes winner North Beach ($129,885). She picks up Rosario and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Rachel's Valentina missed landing in the exacta for the first time in her career with a disappointing sixth as the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last out. She won the Spinaway (G1) last year at the Spa in her first go against winners and followed that up with runner up finishes in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and then was beaten just a neck in her first start this year in the Ashland (G1). She is out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Rachel's Alexandra and may garner a bit too much attention in the betting. She is better than she showed last out.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 12 The Princess Rooney G2 (6:02 ET)
#7 Spelling Again 3-1
#4 Birdatthewire 8-5
#1 Cali Star 9-2
#5 Concealedwithakiss 20-1

Analysis: Spelling Again makes her local debut here off a game effort last out in a close up third in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs going six furlongs. She did not fire in the Madison (G1) three back in her lone start at seven furlongs but that was a tough spot and she was coming back off a 4 1/2 month break. She won the Chilukki (G2) going a one turn mile at Churchill Downs last year which suggests she should be abler to handle seven panels. She should get a good tracking trip behind what looks likely to be a lively pace.

Birdatthewire was off a beat slow and was not a threat last out in a fifth place finish in the Humana Distaff (G1) last out at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. She has a habit of getting off poorly, not getting away cleanly in nearly every start of her career. She is a Grade 1 winner at the distance, taking the La Brea at Santa Anita last December and she was off poorly in that outing. She has run well over the main track here and figures to be coming late but her price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 4,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #1 Zoom 10-1
R3: #4 Crowd Funding 8-1
R6: #4 Aminicalola 10-1
R6: #1 Bel Citron 10-1
R7: #4 John’s Island 8-1
R10: #8 Sky Chaparral 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$6500 - N/W $3,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $6,000 IN LAST START INELIGIBLE WINNERS OVER $20,000 IN 2015/16 INELIGIBLE AE: N/W $13,500 IN 2016.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 TYE SEELSTER 5/2


# 7 NOBLES FINESSE 4/1


# 2 HILARIOUS HALO 12/1


We've got a vibe TYE SEELSTER is going to get the trip to the winner's circle. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, get behind this one's chances. The wagering panel gives this standardbred a formidable chance to come home a winner, class ratings are tops in the group of animals. If effort in the last affair is any indication, this nice horse will have a very nice shot in this event. High last race speed rating. NOBLES FINESSE - With very good win percentages, Roberts should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. The knowledge group always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning rate is confirmation of that. HILARIOUS HALO - He's running in fine form, recording formidable TrackMaster SRs. An excellent pick. A competitive class horse should not be be overlooked. With an avg class number of 87 all signs say this is the one to beat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 9:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$9420 - NON-WINNERS $7,500 LAST 5 STARTS AE: NON-WINNERS 7 PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE OPT. CLM. ALW. $25,000 NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER SARATOGA


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 HILLYBILLY 12/1


# 5 CRIME OF PASSION 9/2


# 4 SER JON 10/1


HILLYBILLY most likely could be the harness racer to beat in this event and just look at the nice morning line. The consortium saw this horse's name in a magazine. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager. Excellent driver Hennessey should find the pace of today's race to this horse's liking - could be a good play. Considered a solid wager based solely on his high victory stat. CRIME OF PASSION - Take a look at this entrant's avg speed ranking of 88 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very good wager. When the trainer Allen puts Bouchard up for the drive very nice things happen. Just check out the 30 win percent. SER JON - Has a clear-cut shot today, if he can perform to his back class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 2, 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 I'LL BE AT THE BAR 7/2


# 7 OGHMA 4/1


# 3 STEADY STUART 5/2


I give the nod to I'LL BE AT THE BAR here. Could best this group here, showing competitive figures of late. Jockey's recent return on investment figs make this gelding a good bet. Must be given a chance here if only for the quite good speed figure recorded in the last contest. OGHMA - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field as of late. He has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group. STEADY STUART - Looks decent for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently. Should compete quite well in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hazel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4800 Class Rating: 68

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2015-2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 LION HALL 5/2


# 1A DANCE WITH SANTANA 5/2


# 5 FAST EL TIGRE 4/1


LION HALL looks formidable to best this field. Stanley has a win percentage of 17 over the last month. Must be carefully examined based on the respectable Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last outing. The average class rating of 79 makes this horse difficult to beat. DANCE WITH SANTANA - His 61 average has this gelding with among the most competitive Speed Figures in this race. The tandem of Stanley/Spiess has one of the best return on investment percentages in this group. FAST EL TIGRE - Is a solid contender based on numbers earned lately under today's conditions. This gelding has a good win percent in dirt sprint races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Chippewa Downs - Race #9 - Post: 5:33pm - Stakes - 2.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $2,500 Class Rating: 77 Who's Your Daddy Now S.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 BEARS GRACE (ML=8/1)
#1 BISHAMON (ML=7/2)
#3 DAZZLING EDGE (ML=3/1)


BEARS GRACE - Mare's last workout should have her fit for today's effort. You should ignore that last race at Chippewa Downs on a track listed as good where she finished out of the top three. Should do well in this event without the slop. I know the barn is serious today. The mare gets Lasix for the first time. Should do well in today's race. Weight shift of -5 from June 12th race at Chippewa Downs. BISHAMON - DAZZLING EDGE - I like the fact that this gelding's last fig, 70, is tops in this bunch. Generally, I don't play a horse off works alone, but when I see a gelding work at the same distance or longer than a race he's entered in, I become interested. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CARMELITO'S CAT (ML=2/1), #2 E Z ENTRY (ML=4/1), #5 NO BAD BEER FACE (ML=6/1),

CARMELITO'S CAT - This gelding registered a speed fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event. E Z ENTRY - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned most every time. Finished third in his most recent race with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. NO BAD BEER FACE - This gelding finished off the board on June 18th and wasn't even close in the last race either.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 BEARS GRACE to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #9 - BELMONT PARK - 5:45 PM EASTERN POST


The Mother Goose Stakes

8½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $300,000.00 PURSE

#7 LIGHTSTREAM
#6 RACHEL'S VALENTINA
#5 LEWIS BAY
#2 OFF THE TRACKS

Just F.Y.I. folks ... the Mother Goose is named after Harry Payne Whitney's filly who defeated the colts in the 1924 Futurity. She is one of only 13 fillies to have won the Futurity since it was first run in 1888. Here in the 59th renewal of this stakes test, I've put a 5-1 shot, #7 LIGHTSTREAM on top! She drops in class (-7) and is undefeated in a three race career, winning each in "POWER RUN FASHION." Jockey Joel Rosario and Trainer Brian Lynch send her to the post for the "Saturday Feature." They've hit the board with 53% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #6 RACHAEL'S VALENTINA, a daughter of Rachel Alexandra, has hit the board in four of her respective last five outings, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Saturday 7/2 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Best Bet: EVERGREEN ELITE (1st)

Spot Play: FOX VALLEY GEORGE (11th)


Race 1

(8) EVERGREEN ELITE lightly raced pacer kicked home nicely last week and has plenty of room to improve. (7) CHLO'S RICHESS is very talented and can beat this field with a smooth trip. (3) THE SMIDGE put in an excellent qualifier last week; threat.

Race 2

(10) SULLIVAN well bred pacer was used hard early last week before tiring. He will offer a much better price and is probably better from off the pace. (8) ROYALE BIG GUY has room to improve in his second career start off a good first effort. (9) SPIRITED ENCOUNTER will offer a monster price and can hit the ticket with some racing luck.

Race 3

(2) FRISKY BOB has the ability and will offer value. (1) RED RED REDNECK sophomore pacer looks to be coming on very strong here in midseason. (3) POCKET PARTY just drew off against similar.

Race 4

(9) YOUDA SHARK will look to drop and pop for proven connections against weaker. (4) SAND SHOCKER well bred pacer has some upside but will need to go much faster this week to make it three straight. (5) WILLIWIN has been close but is probably best used underneath.

Race 5

(6) VITAL TERROR adds second time lasix off a sneaky good effort. (1) ROCKIN JIMMY has been disappointing for new connections but faces much weaker. (7) SUMMER SHANDY will look to make it two straight at this level.

Race 6

(1) IYQ YQR got lucky drawing into the weakest division with the best post. (6) HE GONE JACK might be one of few threats to the top choice with a smooth trip. (4) BOWEDFORTYOVA picks up positive driver change off a mile against better.

Race 7

(8) DAN D DUNE had some issues early in the season but appears to be ready to roll again. (1) HOLDONWE'REROLLING has taken giant strides this year and put in a big effort against older last week. (7) WONDROUS SPORT could be the sleeper in the race at a big price. The 3-year-old won half of his starts last year and might be starting to come around.

Race 8

(2) BC'S BAD CAT should be much closer turning for home and picks up the top driver. (8) OLD MAN RIVER was knocked out of the race last week but had hit the board in five straight prior. (7) MASTER OF DESIRE has just been racing evenly and could use a good setup; command a price.

Race 9

(8) CHIP AGAIN has a lot of question marks but any effort like the start two back and it makes the gelding tough to beat. (4) SLEAZEBURGERNFRIES pacer always showed a ton of potential and has really showed a big late kick in his last three. (7) DIXIE'S BOY bumps up in class off a game victory; threat.

Race 10

(9) BNGS EXPRESS the driver doesn't inspire confidence but this is the horse to beat if he finds a way into the race. (10) SIR MAMMO owns a big brush and just needs a fast pace to close into. (6) PART TIME don't count the 5-year-old out off his last race. The well bred pacer is more than capable of beating this bunch.

Race 11

(3) FOX VALLEY GEORGE has been knocking on the door against better; big chance. (4) MEMORY KING jumps up with a big race from time to time; driver's choice. (10) WHY ASK WHY pacer is very inconsistent from week to week. A good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 12

(8) TERRORIZE THE MOON has been very disappointing since a good first start off the layoff. The pacer drops down to the bottom level and does his best work from off the pace. (4) FRANKTHEBANK owns a win at this level; threat. (5) TOO TALL TAMARAC picks up a huge driver change with a much better post.