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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup TODAY 23:30

Jamaica

v

Canada

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		5/4	2	5/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HWHWNLNLALND​ Most recent​	1 - 3 1 - 0 0 - 1 3 - 0	HDNWNDAWHWND​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Jamaica have conceded in five of their last six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: After a predictably tough Copa America campaign, Jamaica performed with credit to gain an opening point against a useful Costa Rica outfit. However, the Reggae Boyz are prone to leaking the odd goal and against a Canada side who have netted in seven of their last eight matches, an open encounter looks likely.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
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[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Su 12Jul 02:00

Costa Rica

v

El Salvador

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		8/15	14/5	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HDALNLALADND​ Most recent​	1 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 2 1 - 1	NDNLNLADHWND​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: El Salvador have managed to score against only St Kitts & Nevis in their last seven outings

EXPERT VERDICT: Costa Rica looked to have sacrificed the defensive solidity they showed at last year's World Cup in their opening 2-2 draw with Jamaica but can kickstart their Gold Cup campaign in this clash. El Salvador failed to find the net for the fifth time in seven games in their goalless encounter with Canada and could be vulnerable to Costa Rica's more attacking style.

RECOMMENDATION: Costa Rica
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[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Su 12Jul 23:30

Trinidad

v

Cuba

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTX		1/10	8	20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-ADHLNW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 2 1 - 2	–-ALALADHDAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: In Cuba's opening match, they had only three shots compared to Mexico's 44

EXPERT VERDICT: After Trinidad's win against Guatemala and Cuba's thrashing at the hands of Mexico, the Soca Warriors look set to inflict more misery for the Cubans as another big defeat looks likely. Cuba only managed 24% possession so expect Trinidad to dominate proceedings and create plenty of chances.

RECOMMENDATION: Trinidad to win 4-0
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[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Mo 13Jul 02:00

Guatemala

v

Mexico

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1					More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ALALHDAWALNL​ Most recent​	0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 0 3 - 2	NDADHLHDNDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Guatemala have scored only three goals in their last nine outings

EXPERT VERDICT: Mexico's 6-0 annihilation of Cuba and Guatemala's 3-1 loss to Trinidad suggests this should be a resounding Mexico victory. If there is any hope for the Guatemalans, they improved in the second half against Trinidad, bagging a goal, but even so Mexico would have to have a major off-day for them to get a point, especially with Oribe Peralta in confident mood after scoring a hat-trick against Cuba.

RECOMMENDATION: O Peralta to score first
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Red Sox surging as they renew age-old rivalry
By Jesse Schule

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend major-league schedule:

Rivalry Renewed

The Red Sox host the Yankees in a three game set at Fenway before heading into the break, and while Boston is still last in the AL East, they remain in striking distance just 5.5 games back of the first place Yankees. The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 overall, and they are still right in the thick of things in a heated battle in the AL East.

A Giant Collapse

The San Francisco Giants have been right on the Dodgers heels in the NL West for most of the season, but after losing eight of their last nine overall, they now sit in third place behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have a 5.5 game lead at the top of the division, but a home series against the lowly Phillies might be just what the doctor ordered for San Francisco, as it looks to close the gap before the break.

Surging Angels

The Halos head into Seattle as winners on nine of their last 11, and they trail Houston by just 1.5 games in the AL West. The Angels bats have really been heating up, and they are particularly potent at night. LA ranks 4th in the majors in runs scored in night games, behind the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Yankees. Only the Brewers and Tigers have scored more runs in July.

Pitching Notes

*Jeff Samardzija is rumored to be one of the few big name pitchers that might be available for teams looking to bolster their roster. His stock is on the rise after tossing a complete game shutout against the highest scoring team in the majors on Thursday.

*James Shields was 7-0 in his first 12 starts of the season, but he’s now winless in six starts since. His last win came on June 3 at home against the Mets. His next start looks like a tough one on the road in Texas on Sunday.

Hitting Notes

*Troy Tulowitzki has now extended his hitting streak to 21 games, and he’s batting .354 during that stretch. It’s the longest streak in the majors this year, and the 30 year old appears to be primed for a strong second half.

*Mike Napoli continues to struggle in Boston, now well below the Mendoza line batting .192 on the year. He heads into this home series with the Yankees having gone 3-for-24 with six strikeouts so far in the season series.

Weather Notes:

*Thundershowers are expected to affect games in the midwest Saturday, with the biggest impact in Chicago. Winds at Wrigley Field is expected to be blowing towards leftfield with chances of thundershowers during the entire game.

*More thundershowers are expected to be a risk on Sunday with the Oakland A’s and Cleveland Indians playing with a chance of the skies opening up.

Totals Streak

The Tigers finally saw their 19 game over streak come to an end with a 4-2 win at Minnesota on Thursday. They continue to struggle defensively though, and problems with their starting rotation as well as a struggling bullpen and a hot hitting lineup may lead to more high scoring games in the future.

Injury Notes

*Alex Gordon was tearing it up for the Royals, going 9-for-20 with a pair of home runs and seven RBIs in his last six games. He suffered a serious groin injury on Wednesday though, and is expected to miss at least eight weeks. The Royals will miss him, as he’s a four time gold gloves winner.

*Josh Harrison underwent surgery to repair an injured thumb on the 8th of July, and he will be sidelined at least until the end of August.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, July 11, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Let me make it clear that I’m not a Mets fan and in fact probably anti-Mets. But I appreciate watching (and betting) on young talent. And the Mets have the best crop of young pitchers we have seen in the majors in years. So, ahem, generally go “under” their games. But I mention this because one of those touted pitchers, 24-year-old lefty Steven Matz, has a partially torn lat muscle in his left side and probably misses six weeks — he received an injection in the muscle and won’t do anything for three weeks and then be re-evaluated. Matz is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his two starts. I assume this means the Mets will now revert back to a five-man rotation, and it might mean the team is more apprehensive about trading one of its other young pitchers for a bat before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

Diamondbacks at Mets (-163, 6.5)

It has been an usual week or so in that we have seen so many gifted pitchers make their returns from Tommy John surgery. That was the case for Arizona’s projected ace, lefty Patrick Corbin, last Saturday. He was pretty solid against the Rockies, allowing two runs and eight hits in five innings, limited to 76 pitches. Corbin starts here vs. the Mets and certainly won’t be allowed over 90 pitches. New York’s Juan Lagares is 1-for-6 with a double off him. go to askthebookie. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-5. It’s Matt Harvey (7-6, 3.11) for the Mets. He got the win in Arizona on June 4, allowing two runs and striking out nine over seven innings. Aaron Hill is 3-for-8 against Harvey. Paul Goldschmidt is 1-for-5 with a solo homer and four strikeouts.

Key trends: The Mets are 1-6 in their past seven on Saturday but 6-2 in Harvey’s past eight at home. The “over/under” has gone under in eight of the Mets’ past 11 vs. a lefty.

Early lean: Mets and under.


Astros at Rays (+105, 7)

Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.14) gets one more chance to state his case to start for the American League in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. I don’t see how the lefty doesn’t start barring him getting destroyed here. Keuchel leads the AL in wins, ERA and innings pitched and is second in WHIP and complete games. Houston has won his past four, and Keuchel has gone at least six innings in 29 straight starts. The Rays’ Asdrbual Cabrera is 2-for-8 with a homer off him. Evan Longoria is 3-for-6. Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 2.47) will come off the DL and make his first start since June 5. He has nine quality starts in 12 outings this season. Jose Altuve is 1-for-2 off him. Jason Castro 0-for-3 with three strikeouts.

Key trends: The Astros are 7-3 in Keuchel’s past 10 road starts. The Rays are 10-1 in their past 11 against a lefty. The under is 7-1 in Keuchel’s past eight vs. the AL East. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi’s past nine.

Early lean: Astros and under.


White Sox at Cubs (-102, TBA)

Terrific pitching matchup here of each team’s lefty aces — great day to have a few beers and sit in the Wrigley bleachers. It’s the White Sox’s Chris Sale (7-4, 2.80), who is an All-Star. His streak of eight straight games with at least 10 strikeouts, tying a major-league record, ended last time out against Toronto, but Sale was still fantastic, throwing a complete game and allowing two runs. He struck out “only” six. Jon Lester (4-7, 3.48) gets the call for the Cubs. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Monday vs. the Cardinals but took the loss, allowing two runs and two hits over seven. He hasn’t won since May 16, largely because the Cubs don’t score for him. Melky Cabrera is a career .286 hitter off him with a homer and four RBIs in 42 at-bats. Jose Abreu is 3-for-6 with a double and RBI. No DH here for the Pale Hose so Adam LaRoche takes a seat presumably.

Key trends: The Sox are 6-0 in Sale’s past six interleague starts. The Cubs have won six straight at home against a lefty. The Cubs are 1-5 in Lester’s past six following a quality start in his last appearance. The under has hit in nine of Sale’s past 11. The under is 6-0 in Lester’s past six.

Early lean: White Sox and under no matter the total.


Cardinals at Pirates (-122, 6.5)

In a minor surprise, the Cardinals were likely to activate outfielder Matt Holliday from the DL for Friday’s game, but he’s probably just going to be used as a pinch-hitter this weekend. I know he wanted to play in the All-Star Game, so that might be why the team activated him even though Holliday probably isn’t ready to play the outfield. Pirates outfielder Starling Marte hasn’t played since Sunday and you won’t see him in this series. John Lackey (7-5, 3.09) goes here for the Cards. He faced the Pirates on May 2 and allowed a run over six innings. Lackey has thrown seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts. Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-5 off him. It’s All-Star A.J. Burnett (7-3, 1.99) for the Bucs. He pitched in St. Louis on May 1 and shut out the Cards over six innings. Mark Reynolds is 5-for-13 with three homers off him. Jason Heyward is 7-for-17 with two dingers.

Key trends: The Cards are 4-0 in Lackey’s past four against teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 9-2 in Burnett’s past 11 at home vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Lackey’s past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 4-1 in Burnett’s past five at home vs. St. Louis.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.


Angels at Mariners (-113, 7)

You won’t see Halos closer Huston Street in this series after he suffered a groin injury on Wednesday. He is one save from No. 300 career. Joe Smith likely will close with Street out. Lefty C.J. Wilson (7-6, 3.82) gets the call here for L.A. He is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this season. M’s hitters are batting just .170 off him. Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma (0-1, 7.17) came off the disabled list on Monday after missing two-and-a-half months and wasn’t sharp against the Tigers, allowing five runs and eight hits in five innings. He opened the season vs. the Angels, allowing five runs in six innings. Iwakuma is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 11 career games vs. the Angels.

Key trends: The Angels are 1-4 in Wilson’s past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Mariners are 1-4 in Iwakuma’s past five at home. The under is 5-0 in Wilson’s past five vs. Seattle.

Early lean: Angels and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Not shockingly, Sale has been an ‘Under’ machine
Justin Hartling

In Chris Sale’s past 11 starts the Chicago White Sox are 1-9-1 over/under.

In those 11 starts, dating back to May 12, he has allowed a combined 17 earned runs which is a mere 1.5 runs per game. And in only two of those games has the team facing Sale tallied more than two runs in the game.

Sale will take to the mound when the White Sox take on the rival Chicago Cubs Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wimbledon: Williams throttles Sharapova
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Serena Williams dominated Maria Sharapova from the opening serve on Thursday to advance to the Wimbledon ladies’ final and a match against Garbine Muguruza, who is appearing in his first Grand Slam final.

“I’m really excited,” Williams said after a 6-2, 6-4 victory, her 17th consecutive win over Sharapova. “I think she played really well. … It wasn’t easy out there. It was interesting.”

The final Saturday (8 a.m. ET) presents Williams a chance for her 21st career Grand Slam victory and the so-called Serena Slam, winning four consecutive tennis majors. She has five Wimbledon ladies’ singles titles and is in the final for the eighth time.

Muguruza, seeded 20th, lost six consecutive games at one point but fought back to upset Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.

“I don’t have words to explain it,” she said. “Just happy.”

Conchita Martinez was the last Spanish woman to win the Wimbledon title (1994).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Djokovic opens as slight fave in Wimbledon final
Andrew Avery

Online shop Bet365 has opened Novak Djokovic as the -138 favorite against Rogers Federer (+120) in the Wimbledon Final.

According to tennis site matchstat.com, the two have met 39 times with Federer holding a slight 20-19 edge in those head-to-head matchups.

The pair have met twice at Wimbledon, with Djokovic winning the 2014 final and Federer getting the better of the Serb in the 2012 semifinal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rivals Costa Rica and El Salvador clash Saturday
By Ethan Back

Gold Cup
Group Stage
Kick-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Costa Rica -178, El Salvador +450, Tie +325, Total: 2.5

Central American rivals Costa Rica and El Salvador face off on Saturday.

Costa Rica will be looking to rebound from a 2-2 draw against Jamaica in its Group B opener. Although the Costa Ricans overturned a 1-0 deficit in the first half, they were unable to hold on for all three points. Forward David Ramírez played well, scoring a goal and providing an assist on a clever set piece, and the youngster’s solid performance bodes well for his country. He will need more help from Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruíz up front if Costa Rica is to reach its full potential. go to askthebookie. The defense also looked shaky, as both of Jamaica’s goals resulted from poor play at the back by the Costa Rican defense, and manager Paulo Wanchope will be expecting better the rest of the way. El Salvador also managed a draw in its first outing, with its match against Canada finishing 0-0. The Central Americans were the better side for most of the game, but easily could have – and probably should have – lost, considering the stunning miss that Canadian forward Cyle Larin produced in the 36th minute. The Salvadorans will be happy with their one point, and another draw against Costa Rica would give them a real shot at qualifying for the knockout stage. El Salvador’s defensive tactics should dictate the pace of this game, and under 2.5 goals should be scored. In the end, however, Costa Rica should overwhelm its opponents by a score of 2-0, as the group favorites have plenty of motivation to win this game after opening the tournament with a draw.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sparta hosts the Sprint Cup Series Saturday
By Freddy Wander

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
‘Quaker State 400′

Saturday, July 11th – 7:45 p.m. EDT
Kentucky Speedway – Sparta, KY

One of the newest races on the schedule will take place this week for the fifth consecutive season when the Sprint Cup Series drivers take on Kentucky Speedway at the Quaker State 400 on Saturday night. Typically this race was held before the Coke Zero 400, but was moved back a few weeks in 2015, following the race in Daytona that featured a pole win and eventual event victory by Dale Earnhardt Jr. after 96 laps led. This race will be just over 400 miles as they traverse the tri-oval, asphalt track which runs 1.5 miles and features 14-degree turns. The field will be looking to take down Brad Keselowski this week as he is the defending champion here and only two-time victor in the short time that the event has been in existence. go to askthebookie. He holds the two best race times with his wins and also had the fastest average speed when he won here back in 2012; zipping around the track at an average of 145.607 MPH. With the Sprint Cup standings heating up, there will be plenty of drivers looking to take down one of the usual top racers (Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr.) who have topped the leaderboard eight times already on the year.

Brad Keselowski (8/1) – As mentioned in the introduction, Keselowski has been the only multiple-time winner at this track over the four years of it hosting this race and in that time he has the third-best driver rating of 116.1. In his other two starts he has one top-10 and one 33rd-place finish as he has an average running position of 10.234 (fourth-best). In 2015, Keselowski ranks seventh in the Sprint Cup Standings behind nine top-10s in 17 races (53%) while earning a victory in California back in March. He has just one of those top-10s in his last five races, but should come back around at a track he is clearly comfortable at when Saturday night rolls around.

Matt Kenseth (12/1) – Kenseth is another winner on this track as he did so in 2013, a race that was postponed till Sunday due to rain, with the slowest winning time (3:02:07) in the four years. It was no fluke that he took the checkered flag, though, as he has yet to finish outside of the top-10 in his four visits to the track and has a tremendous average finish of 4.5; tying him with Kyle Busch for the best in the field. He’s done so well thanks to his average green-flag speed of 172.189 MPH (fourth-fastest) and has a series-best 181 quality passes in his time here. Kenseth owns one win already this year as he earned his 32nd NSCS victory at Bristol in April and has been in the top-six at five of the last eight events. The 43-year-old is the most consistent driver here and should continue his solid season with a nice performance on Saturday.

Kasey Kahne (18/1) – It has not been the best of seasons thus far for the 17-time NSCS winner, who has not taken down a checkered flag since last summer, as he has been amongst the top-10 just six times in 17 starts (35%) and has spent just 46 laps in the lead. He has been in the top-15 at six of the last seven events, though, and tends to do very well here with an average finish of 8.5 (fifth-best) despite starting on average at the 16.5 spot. He has the second-most quality passes (145) and runs at a speedy mark of 172.039 MPH during green-flags (fifth-fastest), so he should be able to have one of his better runs of the year in Kentucky.

Jamie McMurray (40/1) – McMurray’s odds seem rather high this week for a man who is just outside of the top-10 in the Sprint Cup standings and is coming off a streak of 13 races inside of the top-20. His consistency has been solid, but he has yet to break through for his first win of the year, and eighth of his career, with just 14 laps led in his 17 starts. His average finish of 22.5 at this track in the past four years will not really jump out at anybody, but he showed he has it in him to compete when at Kentucky as evidenced by his runner-up performance in 2013 when he started all the way back in 23rd. The 39-year-old is on pace for one of his best seasons in the NSCS and he should be able to continue it when he hits the track on Saturday.

Danica Patrick (250/1) – Patrick has improved over the last few years in the NSCS, and is looking to crack into the top-20 this week with a solid showing. She has fared pretty well here in the past with a 23rd and a 21st finish while starting in 10th behind a qualifying speed of 185.803 MPH last year. Her 2015 season has featured two top-10 finishes and she has been able to get a top-25 in five of the last seven events. Although she has yet to win in her short career, there will be a time that she competes and if she can build on a few decent showings in Kentucky, this could be the week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 189 Betting Preview: Who walks away with all the gold?
By MMAODDSBREAKER


UFC Welterweight title fight: (C) Robbie Lawler (+150) vs. Rory MacDonald (-170)

Rory MacDonald is going to look to be more technical in this fight and mix in takedowns with his strikes to outpoint Lawler, but as we saw in the pair’s first fight that won’t be easy. MacDonald’s improved a lot since the first time these two met, but at the same time it’s surprising to see him favored as the challenger considering what happened in that fight.

Robbie Lawler’s biggest issue in the past has been being beaten by better wrestlers, but he has really cleaned up his takedown defense in recent years. He doesn’t have great striking defense, either, so he can be beaten by a busier striker, but with his knockout power no one wants to stand and trade with this guy.

I don’t really understand why MacDonald is favored in this fight. He might win, but he should absolutely not be the favorite. The first time these two men MacDonald was a big favorite and he lost pretty clearly. I had a bet on Lawler there as I couldn’t believe the underdog odds, and once again I just don’t get it.

Like the first fight between these two, I’m expecting a very competitive rematch, but ultimately I believe Lawler’s aggression will win him the fight. I think he can catch MacDonald on the chin just like he did in the first fight, and while I don’t know if he finishes him, I do think he can hurt him. I also think Lawler can stop MacDonald’s takedown attempts, so I give him the slight edge in most categories heading into this fight.

I would not be surprised if MacDonald edged out a decision, but I do not favor him to do so. Given the odds, I see value in Lawler as the underdog and believe he’s worth placing a wager on.



UFC Interim Featherweight title fight: Conor McGregor (-180) vs. Chad Mendes (+158)

This is a really tough fight to call and one with so many question marks. Let’s start with McGregor. The biggest question is, can he stop Mendes’ takedowns? I would argue he can, but I don’t really have any tangible evidence to say so for sure because he simply hasn’t fought a wrestler of Mendes’ caliber in his whole career.

A secondary question would be, can McGregor take Mendes’ best shots on the feet? Again, I’m assuming he has a pretty stout chin but it hasn’t really been tested yet so that’s more or less a guess.

Now let’s talk about Mendes. The first question about him is what kind of shape is he in? He took this fight on incredibly-short notice and while Mendes is the kind of guy who is always in good shape, at the same time you have to wonder how the weight cut will go given the time he has to cut it.

The next question about Mendes is, can he outstrike McGregor if this fight stays standing? We know he has big knockout power, but can he deal with McGregor’s reach? It’s just really hard to say.

Ultimately I lean slightly towards McGregor to win this fight because he’s had three months to prepare for this card and I expect him to show up in incredible shape. But it’s not something I’m willing to bet on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top Three UFC 189 Prop Picks

Still not sure which fighters to put in your UFC picks this Saturday? No sweat; here's a quick rundown and update of what we've covered so far for UFC 189 at the MGM Grand.

Finally, we're mere hours away from one of the biggest nights in combat sports. Saturday's UFC 189 pay-per-view in Las Vegas (10:00 p.m. ET) would have been even bigger had Jose Aldo not pulled out of his Featherweight title defense against Conor McGregor, but there's no use crying over bruised ribs. Chad Mendes will give McGregor a proper fight, and there are tons of other top-quality matchups on Saturday's card.

We've been carpet-bombing this major event with previews, analysis and UFC picks, so before things kick off at the MGM Grand, let's revisit what's gone down thus far and update you on any new and relevant information. Enjoy the fights, and may the Octagon be with you.


Remember how all that money was pouring in on McGregor? It still is. As we go to press, McGregor has moved as high as –200 on our UFC odds board, up from –145 when Mendes was first announced as Aldo's replacement. People love McGregor, and for good reason: He's charismatic, he knocks people out, and he's a fresh face in a sport that thrives on new personalities.

He's also rapidly running out of value at these odds. Our colleague Swinging Johnson was more than willing to back McGregor at the lower price, but he also acknowledged that Mendes would pose a difficult challenge with his wrestling acumen, and eventually switched his allegiance to Mendes. Hard to argue with that; while McGregor has a 100-percent takedown success rate in the Octagon, that's only 5-for-5, and against substandard competition. Personally, I'm recommending the UNDER on the total of 2.5 rounds. Others believe McGregor and Mendes will cancel each other out style-wise and go the distance, and they certainly could, but we're betting otherwise here at the ranch.

Free UFC Pick: Take UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+100) at 5dimes


The UFC odds have been moving away from the favorite in Saturday's Welterweight title fight between champion Robbie Lawler and challenger Rory MacDonald. Johnson had MacDonald in his UFC picks at – 165, down from as high as –240 about a month ago. As we go to press, MacDonald is available as low as –154 at Marathon.

We see MacDonald as having many of the same “special sauce” attributes as McGregor, although in this case, people have been steering their bets in the other direction. It's hard to blame them; Lawler beat MacDonald (–410) by split decision two years ago, then went on to upset Johny Hendricks (–210) for the Welterweight title last December. We're hesitant to bet against either gentlemen, but once again, the props market is here to save us. We see yet another decision in their immediate future.

Free UFC Pick: Fight Goes 5 Round Distance: YES (–115) at Bookmaker


When we looked at the undercard for UFC 189, we singled out Cathal Pendred as our pick to click in his Welterweight bout against John Howard. One of the things we cited in Pendred's favor was his association with SBG Dublin, the same camp that McGregor and Gunnar Nelson train out of. If you want success, surround yourself with successful people.

We're doubling down on Pendred after his stay at “The MacMansion.” McGregor has been training for UFC 189 at a lavish Las Vegas location, and sure enough, Pendred has been there, too. “We've got a team of 20 guys here,” Pendred told FOX Sports earlier this week. “All different sorts of coaches. We've got a masseuse. We've got chefs coming in to cook for us.” Nelson has also been there in preparation for his bout with Brandon Thatch; we had Nelson in our UFC picks, and again, we're even more encouraged thanks to the MacMansion. Jeeves, have we installed that extra hot tub yet?

Free UFC Picks: Take Pendred –105 at Pinnacle; take Nelson +155 at BetCRIS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Raphael Esparza (VSI)

FREE SATURDAY UFC 189 PICK

Brandon Thatch -180

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Cardinals @ Pirates
Lackey is 3-1, 1.75 in his last five starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten.

Burnett is 1-0, 2.18 in his last three starts; four of his last six stayed under.

St Louis won eight of last 11 games with Pittsburgh; home side won ten of last 12 series games. Cardinals won five of last eight games overall, as four of last five went over total. Pirates won nine of last 11 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

Reds @ Marlins
Iglesias is making first start since May 30 (shoulder); he is 1-1, 4.57 in his four starts this year (over 2-2).

Conley is making first MLB start; he is 8-2, 2.33 in 15 AAA starts this season and pitched one scoreless inning of relief in majors last month.

Cincinnati lost eight of last 13 games overall; their last five games all stayed under total. Marlins lost five of last six games, outscored 20-10; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven- they lost four of last six games with the Reds- seven of last eight series games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Mets
Corbin allowed two runs in five IP (76 PT) in his first '15 start.

Harvey is 1-2, 1.84 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Arizona is 6-5 in its last 11 games against the Mets; under is 7-1-1 in the last nine. D'backs won five of last seven games; three of last five went over. Mets won five of last seven games; their last four stayed under.

Braves @ Rockies
Wisler is 3-1, 3.91 in his four starts- they all stayed under total.

de la Rosa is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went under.

Braves lost last three games (under 7-2-1 in last ten); they lost last four games with Colorado (under 6-2-1 in last nine), which lost nine of last 13 games overall, but won last two- their last three stayed under.

Brewers @ Dodgers
Jungmann is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his '15 starts.

Beachy is making first start since August 2013; he is 14-11, 3.91 in his 46 MLB starts, all with Atanta.

Brewers lost three of last five games with the Dodgers; over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Milwaukee lost three of last four games; three of last five went over total. Dodgers won seven of last ten games; three of their last four went over the total.

Phillies @ Giants
Buchanan is making first start since April 30; he is 0-5, 8.76 in his five starts (over 3-2) this season.

Vogelsong is 2-1, 1.99 in his last four starts; four of his last five went under.

Philly lost ten of last 12 games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 . Phillies lost five of last six games with the Giants; six of last seven series games went over total. Giants lost eight of last ten games; five of their last seven stayed under.

American League
Astros @ Rays
Keuchel is 3-1, 1.17 in his last three starts; seven of his last ten went under.

Odorizzi is making first start since June 5 (oblique); he is 1-3, 3.15 in his last five starts- eight of his last nine stayed under.

Astros lost eight of last ten games with Tampa Bay; nine of last eleven went under total. Houston lost six of last seven games; last four stayed under- they are 9-21 in last 30 road games. Rays lost 10 of last 12 games (over 9-2-1).

A's @ Indians
Bassitt is 0-2, 2.53 in his first two Oakland starts, losing both games 2-1.

Carrasco is 1-3, 5.96 in his last four home starts; five of his six starts overall went over the total.

Oakland lost four of its last five games; seven of last ten stayed under total- they won five of last eight games with Indians- foru of last five series games went over. Cleveland won nine of last 12 games; six of their last eight stayed under the total.

Bronx @ Red Sox
Nova is 1-2, 3.18 in his three starts (over 1-1-1).

Rodriguez is 1-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.

Bronx won last five games with Boston; six of last nine series games went over total. Bombers won six of last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. Red Sox won eight of last 11 games; four of their last seven went over.

Blue Jays @ Royals
Doubront allowed one run in 6.2 IP (94 PT) in his first '15 start.

Volquez is 4-0, 3.67 in his last six starts (over 5-0-1).

Toronto lost nine of last 12 games; six of their last ten went over total. Jays are 3-6 in last nine games with KC; under is 7-4 in last 11. Royals won seven of last eight games; with four of last five going over the total.

Tigers @ Twins
Ryan is 0-2, 6.08 in his five MLB starts; last three went over.

Gibson is 3-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Twins won five of last seven games; under is 6-2-2 in their last ten games; they lost nine of last 12 games with Detroit (under 7-5). Tigers won five of last eight games, but blew 6-1 lead in 9th inning last night; 19 of their last 20 games went over.

Angels @ Mariners
Heaney is 2-0, 1.77 in his first three starts; (under 2-1).

Seattle lost all four Iwakuma starts (0-1, 7.59); all four went over.

Angels won nine of last 11 games; five of their last six went over. Angels also won six of last nine games with Seattle- four of last five series games stayed under total. Mariners are 0-4 in game following their last four wins; five of their last seven games overall went over.

Interleague
White Sox @ Cubs
Quintana is 2-2, 2.70 in his last six starts; six of his last eight stayed under.

Lester is 0-2, 2.30 in his last five starts; his last six starts stayed under.

White Sox won four of last five games with the Cubs; over is 4-3-1 in last eight series games. Pale Hose won eight of last ten games; six of their last eight stayed under. Cubs won seven of last 11, three of last four went over.

Nationals @ Orioles
Zimmerman is 2-0, 0.40 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under the total. .

Gonzalez is 2-2, 4.78 in his last five starts; last three all went over.

Washington lost eight of last ten games with Baltimore; over is 5-4 in last nine series games. Nationals lost four of last five road games; seven of their last eight games overall stayed under. Orioles lost six of last eight games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine.

Padres @ Rangers
Shields is 0-1, 1.98 in his last two starts; San Diego lost his last six starts-- over is 7-3 in his last ten outings.

Lewis is 1-1, 10.13 in his last three starts; over is 11-2 in his last 13 starts.

San Diego lost six of last eight games with Texas; five of last six stayed under the total. Padres lost last six games, scoring ten runs; in last seven games, under is 6-0-1. Rangers lost five of last six games, outscored 48-17.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
StL-Pitt-- Lackey 10-7; Burnett 10-7
Cin-Mia-- Iglesias 2-2; Conley 0-0
Az-NY-- Corbin 1-0; Harvey 9-7
Atl-Colo-- Wisler 3-1; de la Rosa 8-5
Mil-LA-- Jungmann 4-2; Beachy 0-0
Phil-SF-- Buchanan 0-5; Vogelsong 8-7

Hst-TB-- Keuchel 14-4; Odorizzi 6-6
A's-Clev-- Bassitt 0-2; Carrasco 10-7
NY-Bos-- Nova 1-2; Rodriguez 5-3
Tor-KC-- Buehrle 10-7; Young 8-4
Det-Min-- Simon 9-7; Hughes 9-8
LAA-Sea-- Wilson 9-8; Iwakuma 0-4

Chi-Chi-- Sale 10-6; Lester 9-8
Wsh-Balt-- Zimmerman 10-7; Gonzalez 9-6
SD-Tex-- Shields 9-9; Lewis 8-9

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
StL-Pitt-- Lackey 3-17Burnett 4-17
Cin-Mia-- Iglesias 1-4; Conley 0-0
Az-NY-- Corbin 0-1; Harvey 4-16
Atl-Colo-- Wisler 2-4; de la Rosa 4-13
Mil-LA-- Jungmann 0-6; Beachy 0-0
Phil-SF-- Buchanan 2-5; Vogelsong 2-15

Hst-TB-- Keuchel 3-18; Odorizzi 3-12
A's-Clev-- Bassitt 0-2; Carrasco 8-17
NY-Bos-- Nova 1-3; Rodriguez 0-8
Tor-KC-- Buehrle 7-17; Young 1-12
Det-Min-- Simon 3-16; Hughes 4-17
LAA-Sea-- Wilson 4-17; Iwakuma 2-4

Chi-Chi-- Sale 5-16; Lester 6-17
Wsh-Balt-- Zimmerman 6-17; Gonzalez 3-15
SD-Tex-- Shields 4-18; Lewis 4-17

Umpires
Az-NY-- Under is 9-5-1 in last fifteen Hirschbeck games.
Atl-Colo-- Over is 11-4 in last fifteen Emmel games.
Cin-Mia-- Underdogs won three of last five Barksdale games.
StL-Pitt-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Carapazza games.
Phil-SF-- Favorites won six of last seven Tichenor games.
Mil-LA-- Underdogs won seven of last nine West games.

Tor-KC-- Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under total.
Det-Min-- Seven of last ten Foster games stayed under.
Hst-TB-- Six of last seven Gibson games stayed under.
A's-Clev-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Porter games.
NY-Bos-- Home side won five of last six Conroy games.
LA-Sea-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Eddings games.

Chi-Chi-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Marquez games.
Wsh-Balt-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Nauert games.
SD-Tex-- Under is 8-1-2 in last eleven Schrieber games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC: Aldo out, Mendes in for UFC 189
By Brian Edwards

Jose Aldo officially pulled out of UFC 189 on Tuesday night due to a rib injury sustained in training last week. Aldo was scheduled to make his next featherweight title defense against Conor 'The Notorious' McGregor, who will now face Chad 'Money' Mendes for the interim 145-pound belt.

As of early Thursday morning, most betting shops had McGregor (17-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) listed as a -135 favorite versus Mendes (+105), who has only lost twice in 10 career Octagon appearances. Both of his defeats have come to Aldo.

By pulling out of a fight for the fifth time in his UFC career, Aldo reportedly leaves at least $3.5 million on the table. Aldo-McGregor was one of most anticipated fights in mixed martial arts history, prompting the UFC to spend more money promoting the event than any other in the organization's history. There was an eight-city promotional tour, including stops in Rio and Dublin.

Mendes now gets his third chance to win UFC gold. The fight is still big, but nowhere near as big as McGregor-Aldo. When Dana White announced the news on ESPN's Sports Center, he said the fight had a chance to surpass UFC 100 (GSP vs. Alves, Lesnar vs. Mir II and Henderson vs. Bisping) as the biggest pay-per-view event in the promotion's history.

On Sports Center, McGregor said about Aldo, "If a man is scared for his life, we cannot force him to step inside and face me. I feel he is afraid. The doctors have cleared him to fight, but he has still pulled out. Rightfully so, the belt has been taken from him. I feel he was mentally beaten. He was looking for his way out."

McGregor said about Mendes, "I"m going to demolish him. I'm going to rip his head off."

McGregor went on to say he would beat Mendes in only four minutes.

Meanwhile, this scribe is left to wonder why Mendes was chosen to face McGregor ahead of Frankie Edgar. Aldo, who apparently had his coach call Dana to deliver the news, will presumably stay back in Brazil to heal up with the Mendes-McGregor winner set to face him in a unification bout at some point later this year or early in 2016.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mendes and McGregor quickly start firing shots
Justin Hartling

It certainly did not take long for Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor to start firing shots at one another on the UFC 189 Media call.

“Conor, I’m going to give you a little bit more respect, buddy. I’m going to finish you within the first three [rounds]," Mendes said.

That certainly did not bother McGreor ho does not seem to think very highly of his new opponent.

“I think Chad is the substitute, the B-level," McGregor replied. “I think this the McGregor show – people are showing up to see me."

McGregor is currently a -150 favorite to win the interim featherweight title on July 11.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mendes, McGregor clash

UFC 189: McGregor vs Mendes
Saturday, July 11th – 10:00 p.m. ET
Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC Interim Featherweight Bout
Conor McGregor (17-2-0) vs. Chad Mendes (17-2-0)
Line: McGregor -160, Mendes +130

With Jose Aldo pulling out of the fight with a rib injury, Conor McGregor and Chad Mendes fight for the interim featherweight title when they face-off at UFC 189.

McGregor has been an absolute beast since joining the UFC back in mid-2013 as he’s rattled off five consecutive wins with four of them ending in a knockout; three in the first round. In that time he earned himself “Performance of the Night” three times and also showed up with a “Knockout of the Night” in his UFC debut against Marcus Brimage after taking him out in just over a minute.

He has no issues when on the big stage as he was able to win both the featherweight and lightweight championships when part of the CWFC (Cage Warriors Fighting Championships) and in 2014 he was the recipient of the International Fighter of the Year at the World MMA Awards. “Notorius” McGregor owns a wealth of fighting styles while fighting out of Dublin, Ireland and has not lost in the MMA world since late 2010.

Mendes is one of the best known fighters in the circuit and the former college wrestler has knocked out his opponent in five of his last six victories. Four of those knockouts came in the first round and aided him in getting to the title fight against Jose Aldo in both 2012 and late 2014. Those two matches were his only career losses as Aldo took him out by a knockout in the first round in the first go-around, but improved the second time by going the full five minutes before losing via decision with the bout earning “Fight of the Year” honors. Although this is just for the interim title, it is a chance for McGregor to knock Mendes out of contention when Aldo makes his way back from injury.

McGregor has had no issues getting through his opponents up until this point in his career and has torn off 13 consecutive victories between his time in multiple circuits. The 5’9”, 145-pound fighter lands an impressive 5.72 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 42% as he uses his aggressiveness to get those strikes in. With that aggressive style, he does leave himself susceptible to hits against, though, and takes 2.98 significant strikes per minute while deflecting 69% of the attempts.

Since coming to the UFC, McGregor has out-struck his opponents 166-86 and doubled up (64-32) on Dennis Siver in his last time out. Although he has not had a takedown in either of his last two fights, McGregor does have it in his repertoire with 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes at an 83% accuracy and he showed how he can use this part of his game to win against Max Holloway when he earned four takedowns.

No fighter has put him on the mat in his time at the UFC, but it’s something that he will need to continue to defend against as his two career losses came by submission. McGregor has yet to face an opponent like Mendes, but looks to have the talent and aggressiveness to keep up with him.

Mendes has been an immovable force since joining UFC in early 2011 with his only two career losses coming against one man, Jose Aldo. He has a much different style than his opponent in this one, landing just 2.68 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and shows much better defense than McGregor with his opposition getting in just 1.93 significant strikes per minute at 30% accuracy.

He’s been able to destroy his opponents in his last six victories, getting 119 strikes in compared to 70 absorbed, but had a takedown in just one of those matches. Amazingly, in that match he had a total of seven takedowns against Nik Lentz and averages 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes fighting at a 54% accuracy.

Just like McGregor, Mendes has defended against the takedown 100% of the time and it will be a surprise to see him hit the mat in this one. “Money” Mendes has more experience at this level than McGregor and it will be tough to imagine him losing in his third chance at the title belt.

Other UFC 189 Bouts -

Lightweight Matchup:
Cody Pfister +177
Yosdenis Cedeno -220

Flyweight Matchup:
Louis Smolka -115
Neil Seery -115

Bantamweight Matchup:
Henry Briones +450
Cody Garbrandt -650

Welterweight Matchup:
Mike Swick +315
Alex Garcia -425

Welterweight Matchup:
John Howard +105
Cathal Pendred -135

Welterweight Matchup:
Tim Means +155
Matt Brown -190

Welterweight Matchup:
Gunnar Nelson +165
Brandon Thatch -200

Bantamweight Matchup:
Brad Pickett +575
Thomas Almeida -900

Featherweight Matchup:
Jeremy Stephens +185
Dennis Bermudez -230

Welterweight Matchup:
Rory Macdonald -185
Robbie Lawler +150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 189: Despite card change, MMA event a popular ticket
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

As is often the case in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, the drama leading up to a major event holds as much intrigue as the fight itself.

Breakout Irish superstar Conor McGregor was scheduled to meet Jose Aldo Jr. for the latter's featherweight championship Saturday in the main event of UFC 189.

But Aldo broke a rib in training camp two weeks ago -- an ill-advised spinning back kick to Aldo's unprotected midsection by a sparring partner was the culprit -- and, after several days of "will he or won't he" speculation, Aldo was removed from the fight last week.

Into Aldo's place went Sacramento's Chad Mendes in what is being billed as an interim featherweight title fight.

While there was widespread disappointment over the change after hype that had been built through a two-week world press tour in March, momentum hasn't slowed on the biggest MMA event of the year. Several thousand fans are traveling from Ireland for the event, and the UFC had to add extra seating at MGM Grand Garden Arena to accommodate demand.

Since the Mendes announcement, as of Tuesday, an additional $300,000 in tickets had been sold. This has pushed the gate to $7.1 million, nudging UFC 189 ahead of UFC 148 three years ago, in which Anderson Silva defeated Chael Sonnen in a middleweight title rematch, as the biggest U.S. take in the company's 22-year history.

While the hype machine continues running at full throttle, it is pushing an entirely different product, as Mendes vs. McGregor is quite a different matchup than Aldo vs. McGregor.

McGregor's critics have long said he has been protected by the UFC in his matchmaking and that he had not faced a credible wrestler during his rise through the ranks. Aldo's striking style was seen as tailor-made for McGregor's knockout-artist style.

But the criticism was muted with the insertion of Mendes, a second-place finisher at the 2008 NCAA championships wrestling for Cal-Poly. Mendes (17-2) suffered his only two career losses to Aldo but has used a relentless, grinding mix of grappling and striking to wear down and vanquish the rest of his foes.

"Conor's never faced anyone like me before," Mendes said. "I have the athleticism, the strength, the power, the speed, and I have wrestling to put him on his back and finish this fight. This fight is mine."

McGregor (17-2), meanwhile, has won 13 in a row and is 5-0 in the UFC. Four of those five wins were via knockout; the fifth was a unanimous decision in a bout in which McGregor blew out his knee, an injury that sidelined him for nearly a year.

For his part, McGregor claims nothing has changed in his training approach.

"I don't have a game plan," McGregor said. "I just go in there formless, ruthless, cold. And that's it. It does not matter who is in front of me or what style or what approach they have. My approach will win the fight."

Meanwhile, UFC 189's co-feature bout is a welterweight title contest that would headline just about any other fight card. Veteran Robbie Lawler (25-10, 1 no-contest) of Coconut Creek, Fla., will make his first title defense against Montreal's Rory MacDonald (18-2).

The 33-year-old Lawler is considered one of the sport's great redemption stories. Tabbed a future champ in his early 20s, Lawler washed out of the UFC in 2004. He returned in 2013 and is 6-1 since, culminating with a split-decision win over Johny Hendricks to take the title last December.

MacDonald, meanwhile, has long been considered the heir apparent at 170 pounds. He trains at Montreal's TriStar gym, home of longtime former welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre. The 25-year-old MacDonald has won eight of his past nine, with his only loss a split decision to Lawler in 2013.

MacDonald has won three in a row and, in the process, earned plaudits from critics who previously felt MacDonald had been holding back in his fights.

"I've come a long way since that fight," MacDonald said of the 2013 loss to Lawler. "I'm just practicing new techniques and (have) become a whole new fighter since then. And I'm focused on bringing a new attitude and just a better version of myself into this fight."