MLB Daily Line Drive: Saturday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (+130, 10.5)
*Game 2 of doubleheader
The Indians will try to continue their march to the top of the American League Central standings as they continue their series with the first-place Twins with a doubleheader Saturday in Minnesota.
Cleveland took the first game of the weekend set 8-1 on Friday night to pull within one game of Minnesota for the lead in the Central and can take over the lead by sweeping both games Saturday. The Tribe will send right-hander Mike Clevinger to the mound in the second games, while the Twins will counter with lefty Adalberto Mejia.
It has been an up-and-down season for Clevinger, going 2-3 with 4.09 ERA, he does have a respectable 1.212 WHIP however and the right-hander has been much better on the road. He is 2-1 with 2.70 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP with opponents hitting just .130 off him.
The Twins counter with Mejia, a 23-year-old southpaw who has struggled since joining Minnesota’s rotation. Mejia is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.583 WHIP and he will have his hands full with a Cleveland lineup that is starting to heat up.
Newly acquired Edwin Encarnacion is doing what he was brought in to do, leading the team in dingers at 14 after going long in his last two games. So watch out when Encarnacion gets hot, it’s usually white hot. Meanwhile, the Tribe as a team is scoring 6.4 runs per game over the last 10 games, up from their season average of 4.6.
It has been a great start to the year for the Twins, but the Indians are a much more talented team and that is beginning to show as the season wears on.
Oh, and the Indians have won five straight meetings with the Twins.
Pick: Indians -150
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics (+120, 9.5)
The Yankees west coast road trip has not gone to plan so far, as they are just 1-4 so far and are looking for their first win of the series against the A’s after dropping the first two of a four-game set.
New York sends Masahiro Tanaka to the mound for Game 3, but the Japanese right-hander has been the model of inconsistency in 2017. Tanaka is 5-6 with a whopping 6.07 ERA, but is coming off a performance in which he pitched 6.2 innings allowing just one run with eight strikeouts. Before that in his two previous outings, he had allowed 12 runs with just six strikeouts, which has essentially been Tanaka’s season in a nutshell. He takes on an Oakland lineup that is much better at home, scoring five runs per game hitting .251 with an OPS of .796.
The A’s counter with Jesse Hahn, who is 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA, but the A’s are just 1-4 in his last five starts, where he has pitched to a 5.50 ERA in those games and he has the tall task of slowing down the booming Bronx Bombers. The Yankees are scoring 8.0 runs per game in the last eight games.
Additionally the Over is 9-1-1 in Athletics last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter and 8-3 in the Yankees last 11 overall.
The bats should stay hot Saturday by the Bay.
Pick: Over 9.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 64-54-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers (5-2, 2.83 ERA, $311)
Not much was expected out of Chase Anderson in 2017, he finished each of his first three big league seasons with ERA’s over 4.00. However, this has been a career season for the Brewers’ right-hander and his last four trips to the mound he has been simply dominate.
In his last four starts he has thrown 27.2 innings, allowed one earned run (.33 ERA), 14 hits, 30 strikeouts, 6 walks. And today he is pitching against the San Diego Padres, who have the worst ranked offence in all of the Major Leagues. Anderson and the Brewers are home chalk today at -157 against the Padres.
Slumping: Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (3-8, 4.67, $-461)
The other end of pre-season expectations is Rick Porcello, as the defending American League Cy Young Award winner has been mediocre this season and that’s being kind. He currently sits at 231 (out of 246) on our Covers Starting Pitcher Money Board.
Over his last three starts, Porcello has looked like a shell of the pitcher that won 22 games in 2016. 18.1 innings, 26 hits, 13 earned runs and four home runs. That adds up to a 6.38 ERA and an opponents batting average of .357. Porcello gets the ball tonight in Houston against the league leading Astros and can be had as +103 road dogs.
Saturday's Top Trends
* Giants are 0-7 in the last seven meetings vs. Rockies. Giants +150.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven interleague games. O/U: 10 @ Orioles.
* Mets are 8-0 in Seth Lugo's last eight starts. Mets +135 vs. Nationals.
* Reds are 0-7 in their last seven overall. Reds +140 vs Dodgers.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 58 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon in Baltimore where the Cardinals and Orioles have a late afternoon first pitch scheduled. This could get pushed as the forecast is calling for better weather later in the evening. There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing in Philadelphia and a 60 percent chance of rain where the Diamondbacks and Phillies will attempt to get their game in.
Hitter's winds could be a factor in a few ballparks today:
* Indians at Twins (Total: 10): 10 MPH wind blowing out to center field.
* Cardinals at Orioles (Total:9.5): 10-13 MPH blowing out to left-center field.
* Yankees at Athletics (Total: 9): 10-13 MPH blowing out to right-center field.
* Nationals at Mets (Total: 8.5): 10-12 MPH blowing out to right-center field.
Pitcher’s winds could be a factor in a few ballparks today:
* Giants at Rockies (Total: 12.5): 13 MPH wind blowing in from left-center field.
* Rays at Tigers (Total: 9): 17 MPH wind blowing in from right-center field.
* Mariners at Rangers (Total: 11): 16 MPH wind blowing in from right-center field.
Ump Of The Day
Lance Barksdale: Lance Barksdale gets the pads today at Oakland Coliseum where the Athletics are hosting the New York Yankees. Barksdale has been one of baseball’s top Under umpires this season with only two Overs cashing in his 12 appearances behind the plate and when the total is nine or over the Under is 6-0.
Barksdale’s generous 64.4 strike percentage gives pitchers a little more room around the edges and forces hitters to react accordingly. Masahiro Tanaka and Jesse Hahn will be getting the benefits today with the total sitting at 9.
