NBA Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Hawks at Wizards**
-- Just like the other three series in the NBA Playoffs, the Hawks and Wizards are knotted at 1-1 in this best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinals showdown that shifts to Washington D.C. for Saturday's Game 3. The big news that came out Thursday afternoon concerns Washington point guard John Wall, who is expected to miss a second straight game due to a wrist injury. Wall took a hard fall in Game 1 and braced himself with his left hand as he hit the deck. An X-ray Thursday revealed five non-displaced fractures, leaving his status for the rest of the postseason in question.
-- Wall averaged 17.6 points, 10.0 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game during the regular season. In a 104-98 comeback win at Atlanta in Game 1, Wall had 18 points, 13 assists, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.
-- On Thursday morning, most betting shops had Washington (51-37 straight up, 38-47-3 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point favorite for Game 3. When the Wall news broke early Thursday afternoon, the number was adjusted to Atlanta as the 1.5-point favorite. As it became more clear Wall is unlikely to play Saturday, the line moved more. As of early Friday afternoon, most books had the Hawks favored by 3.5 points with a total of 199.5. The Wizards are +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).
-- Atlanta (65-25 SU, 53-35-2 ATS) evened the series by capturing a 106-90 win as a nine-point home 'chalk' in Tuesday's Game 2 at Philips Arena. DeMarre Carroll was the catalyst again as he continued to his stellar postseason play with 22 points, six rebounds and four assists. Carroll became the first Hawk to score 20 points or more in six straight playoff games since Dominique Wilkins pulled the same trick in 1988. Paul Millsap added 18 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and four steals, while Al Horford finished with 18 points, six assists, four boards, three steals and a pair of blocked shots. Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore were also in double figures with 12 and 10 points, respectively. Jeff Teague, who has been hampered by a sprained ankle since Game 5 of the Brooklyn series, had just nine points on 3-of-12 shooting from the field. However, the Wake Forest product did dish out eight assists and pull down seven rebounds.
-- Despite the Game 2 loss, Washington had to be encouraged by the play of Bradley Beal, who sprained his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 1. Beal looked fine health-wise on Tuesday, producing 20 points, seven assists, five rebounds and three steals. Ramon Sessions, who started at PG in Wall's absence, came up big with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the floor and 3-of-5 from long distance. Otto Porter and Paul Pierce contributed 15 points apiece. Porter also had eight rebounds, five assists and three steals.
-- The 'under' is 44-42-2 overall for the Wizards, but the 'over' is 23-19-1 in their home contests.
-- Totals have been an overall wash (45-45) for the Hawks this year, but the 'over' is 23-21 in their road assignments.
-- The adjusted series price has Atlanta at -300, while Washington is available for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).
Chris David had this take on the series going into Game 3: "With or without Wall in the lineup, Atlanta is the better team in this series. Due to his health, it would be surprising to see the Wizards defeat the Hawks. The one thing I don’t like about Washington is that it hasn’t been a great team off a loss this season, losing 19 back-to-back games. Those outcomes include losing skids of three, four, five and six games. Even though the Wizards have solid veterans on their squad with playoff experience, they seem to buckle when things aren’t going well and it’s clear that they’re heading in that direction now.
"I prefer to play totals more than sides and I’m going to keep riding the Atlanta team total ‘over’ in this series. The Hawks still haven’t put forth a great shooting performance and they put up 98 and 106 points in the first two games. They match up real well and they got to the line 11 more times (25-14) in Game 2. I’m hoping Budenholzer pushes the aggressive approach and I’m guessing Jeff Teague will finally start making shots. The number is 100 ½ and I believe Atlanta will jump over the century mark again on Saturday.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 5:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Warriors at Grizzlies**
-- Without starting point guard Mike Conley (facial fractures) in Game 1, Memphis (60-29 SU, 44-42-3 ATS) was blasted at Golden State by a 101-86 count as a 10-point road underdog. The combination of Nick Calathes and Beno Udrih at point guard produced just seven total points and more turnovers (four) than assists (three).
-- With Conley returning for Game 2 wearing a protective mask on his face, the Ohio State product scored a game-high 22 points to spark Memphis to a 97-90 win as a 10-point road 'dog. Conley drained 8-of-12 attempts from the field and connected on 3-of-6 shots from 3-point land. Zach Randolph added 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists, while Marc Gasol finished with 15 points, six rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. Courtney Lee was also in double figures with 15 points. Tony Allen had nine points and four steals, showing why he's a perennial first-team selection to the NBA's All-Defensive Team. Allen held Klay Thompson to 13 points and forced him into five turnovers.
-- Golden State (72-16 SU, 49-38-1 ATS) lives and dies by its efficiency from 3-point land and it wasn't there in Tuesday's setback at home. The Warriors made only 6-of-26 from downtown (23.1%), as The Splash Brothers (Steph Curry and Thompson) combined to hit just 3-of-17 from beyond the arc. Curry scored a team-high 19 points to go with six assists and five rebounds. Draymond Green finished with 14 points and 12 boards, but he hit just 3-of-11 shots from the field. Leandro Barbosa scored 14 points from off of the bench.
-- Memphis is a home underdog in this spot for just the fourth time this year. Regardless of the venue, the Grizzlies went 12-8 ATS in 20 games as underdogs of three points or more.
-- Memphis has won five in a row at home while going 4-0-1 versus the number. The Grizzlies owns a 22-19-3 spread record at home this season.
-- Even though Memphis currently holds home-court advantage, Golden State is still a -600 'chalk' to win the series . The Grizzlies are +450 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $450).
David offered these thoughts going into Game 3: "Memphis is a very solid club and I expected a dogfight in this series, predicting the Warriors to win in seven games. However, I’m not foolish to know that Golden State is the better team and the line tells you so. To put things in perspective, the Grizzlies have been home underdogs three times this season and they’ve gone 1-2 in those games. The one win came in the last game of the season when Memphis rested versus Indiana and we all saw the Pacers fold. The two losses came to quality contenders in the Cavaliers and Warriors. Cleveland beat them by 22 and Golden State racked up a 23-point road win. I don’t see the deficit being this high on Saturday but I’m not afraid to lay the price with the road favorites.
"Even though the first two games in this series went ‘under’ the total, I’d lean ‘over’ in Game 3 just based on the offensive tendencies from Golden State. The Warriors have been held under 100 points 14 times this season and in the very next game, the club has averaged 110.1 PPG in the following contest. In the first round, Golden State scored 97 in Game 2 versus New Orleans and rebounded with 123 in Game 3. Memphis is a different animal defensively but I don’t expect another inconsistent effort from the league’s best offense.
-- The 'under' is 47-40-1 overall for the Warriors, 25-18 in their road games. They have seen the 'under' cash in three straight and four of their last five.
-- The 'under' has been a major money maker in Memphis games, going 51-36-2 overall. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' hit at a 29-14-1 clip in their home outings. They have seen the 'under' go 6-2 in their last eight games.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast from The Grind House at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
