UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews
UFC Fight Night comes to us this Saturday from Manila, Philippines with a big fight in the featherweight division between second-ranked former UFC lightweight champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and former WEC featherweight champion Urijah Faber. While it's branded "Fight Night," the bout is slated for Saturday morning U.S. time (10 a.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), so be sure to get your action in early!
Edgar is bigger than a 4-to-1 favorite to keep his spot in the title picture, with Faber getting more than 3-to-1 odds as the underdog.
Edgar (18-4-1) has amazingly fought twice a year since 2008 and makes his 2015 debut after a nice fifth-round submission win over Cub Swanson to close out 2014.
Edgar, who won the UFC lightweight title back in 2010 by defeating B.J. Penn, has made a career of being in hard-fought, close fights. Frankie was able to defend his title three times before losing it in a razor-close decision to Benson Henderson. A rematch with Henderson produced another close fight with hard-to-score rounds, and Frankie came out on the wrong side of a split decision.
Edgar dropped in weight for his next fight, a title shot against featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Edgar did well, but lost a unanimous decision in what earned Fight of the Night honors. Since then, Frankie has looked good in putting together a three-fight win streak. Edgar seems primed for another good performance Saturday, and this is shaping up as a compelling bout between high-profile fighters who are used to being in main events on the big stage.
Turning 36 this week, Faber (32-7) also should be full of confidence coming into this fight, as he's won six of his last seven bout, with the only loss in that stretch coming in a bantamweight title fight with Renan Barao. Faber has made a career of beating fighters he should beat and loses only to top fighters.
Faber showed tremendous heart in a five-round decision loss to Jose Aldo back in 2010, when Aldo landed so many leg kicks that Urijah needed help getting back to his corner between rounds. Faber will need a performance of a lifetime to get the best of Edgar, but has looked up to the task in training. With his wrestling, he has a chance to make this fight very interesting if he can get inside and land a few takedowns.
Edgar usually has the speed advantage in most of his fights, but he won't have that luxury here, as Faber is just as quick and likes to keep the pace fast. Rounds can be hard to score in lighter weight classes, and laying -400 can be a tricky proposition, especially if the crowd in Manila gets behind the underdog Faber, as crowds usually do.
The Linemakers lean: I'm looking more forward to watching what should be a great fight rather than betting on it. There's no way I'm laying -400-plus here, so the only way to go is to play Faber strictly on the value, as this line seems a touch high.
Go with the underdog Urijah Faber, who always gives his best effort, at +325 or better to upset Frankie Edgar in the main event Saturday.
Undercard
Mark Munoz vs. Luke Barnatt
The undercard features a couple of interesting fights in the middleweight division, starting with veteran Mark "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" Munoz taking on Englishman Luke Barnatt. Barnatt is a -160 favorite, with Munoz getting +140 odds on the takeback.
Munoz (13-6) was once considered a serious contender for the middleweight title, but has fallen on hard times. He has lost four of his last five fights and has looked awful in his last three, never getting out of the first round.
After winning the first eight fights of his career, Barnatt (8-2) has dropped his last two, both split-decision losses against fairly weak competition.
If this fight were anywhere but the Philippines, where Munoz will have a huge home advantage, I wouldn't have much betting interest in it. Munoz also has a big back-class advantage and has clearly been in with much better competition throughout his career than Barnatt.
If Munoz, 37, has anything left in the tank, he'll probably give his best effort in front of the Filipino fans. If the fight ends up in the hands of judges, it surely won't hurt to have the crowd going crazy every time you do something.
The Linemakers lean: Mark Munoz at +140 to defeat Luke Barnatt.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Costas Philippou
Another fight at 185 pounds features No, 7 Gegard Mousasi and No. 12 Costas Philippou. Mousasi, who seems to have been around forever, is only 29 and still has plenty of time to make another run for a title. Mousasi, who usually takes care of business against weaker competition, is a -650 favorite to take out Philippou.
Philippou, 35, has been in with some tough competition himself, losing in the first round to top contender Luke Rockhold back in 2014. Costas might come into this fight with some confidence of his own after stopping Lorenz Larkin in the first round in his last fight.
Mousasi clearly has the edge on paper in this fight, but that doesn't always translate in the octagon. Odds of -650 is Ronda Rousey territory, and that just doesn't seem realistic for Mousasi in this fight.
The Linemakers lean: Look for Philippou to give a good account of himself here and maybe make things interesting, as Mousasi could be in a look-ahead situation with bigger fights down the road. A small lean, once again strictly on value, to Costas Philippou to upset Gegard Mousasi at about +450.
