UFC 198 Betting Preview
By Brian Edwards
When the Ultimate Fighting Championship puts on a pay-per-view show in Brazil, you know there are going to be fireworks galore. Then when you realize Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva is fighting and his bout isn’t the headliner or the co-main event, you know there’s a spectacular lineup on tap.
Well, you can strike the initial portion of the second sentence in the previous paragraph written earlier in the week. Unfortunately on Monday night, Silva began experiencing extreme pain in his abdomen. The UFC sent him to a hospital in Brazil, but he was released and went home where he became violently ill.
The UFC then sent him to a different hospital and he underwent surgery early Tuesday morning to have his gallbladder removed. He was released from the hospital Friday morning and is expected to be able to resume training in the next 4-6 weeks. The bright side? Now Silva wants to fight at UFC 200 in Las Vegas on July 9, so we can probably count on Silva facing Uriah Hall at that show in instead of Saturday.
Nevertheless, this UFC 198 card for Saturday remains stacked. The show will take place in Silva’s hometown of Curtiba at Arena da Baixada, a soccer stadium that seats more than 40,000 people. It’ll be the promotion’s fourth show in a stadium. More than 20,000 fans were at Friday’s weigh-ins.
The main event will feature Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1 MMA, 8-2UFC) making his first heavyweight championship title defense against Stipe Miocic. As of early Friday night, most books had the 38-year-old Brazilian champ as a -160 favorite with Miocic at +140 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $140).
Gamblers can shave off the price on Werdum and actually get plus money by backing him to win inside the distance for a +130 return. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -130, ‘under’ +110).
Werdum has been nothing short of sensational since returning for a second tour of duty in the UFC after a strong stretch in Strikeforce, where he ended a 28-fight unbeaten streak that stretched 9.5 years for Fedor Emelianenko by submitting the legendary Russian mixed martial artist.
Since returning to the Octagon, Werdum has won six fights in a row. First, he dominated Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson in a unanimous-decision victory at UFC 143. Then at UFC 147, Werdum knocked out Mike Russow. Next, he submitted Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira to set up a title-eliminator showdown versus Travis Browne in Orlando.
Browne was on a roll and heavily favored by the oddsmakers in the -300 range. Werdum has great Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, as evidenced by his submission of Fedor, but Browne was considered the more dangerous striker. And to be clear, Browne is one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division.
But Werdum displayed how well-rounded his overall game has become on this night in Orlando. He played Browne’s game, soundly beating him in a fight that was mostly contested on the feet. Werdum busted Browne up like no fighter had previously, working him with an array of kicks, knees and punches. By late in the second round, Werdum’s confidence level was so high that he began toying with ‘Hapa.’ The result was a blowout UD win for the Brazilian to earn him a title shot against then-champ Cain Velasquez in the promotion’s first event in Mexico City.
However, Velasquez had to withdraw with an injury about a month before the fight, prompting the UFC to insert Mark Hunt in his place. Hunt won the first round, flooring Werdum with punches on multiple occasions. But Hunt wisely waited for Werdum to stand up each time, not wanting to subject himself to his opponent’s dangerous BJJ game from his back.
Midway through the second stanza, Werdum caught Hunt out of nowhere with a flying knee that landed right on the kisser. After several more punches, Hunt was done and Werdum was the new interim heavyweight champ.
The UFC decided to unify the heavyweight strap by once again matching up Velasquez and Werdum in Mexico City at UFC 188. Mexico City has extremely high altitude that takes time to adjust to, so Werdum wisely showed up a month before the fight to train in those conditions. Velasquez made a colossal mistake by not arriving until a week before the bout.
Velasquez is well known for having the best motor of perhaps in any fighter in heavyweight history. His cardio had never once been an issue in 12 previous UFC appearances. But the altitude played a major factor in this instance.
Velasquez looked tired late in the first round. By the midway point of Round 2, it was crystal clear that he was moving much slower than usual. His lack of quickness opened him up to strong shots from Werdum. Velasquez was a bloody mess by the end of the second round. Even worse, he was gassed out.
With Werdum continuing to win the striking exchanges in Round 3, Velasquez shot for a takedown midway through the stanza. Werdum sprawled perfectly and caught Velasquez in a nasty guillotine choke. The champ tried his best to escape but it wasn’t happening. Velasquez had to tap and Werdum took control of the belt.
Miocic (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has won back-to-back fights since losing a close decision to Junior dos Santos on Dec. 13 of 2014. The 33-year-old Ohio native of Croatian descent is off a 54-second knockout win over Andrei Arlovski at UFC 195. In May of last year, Miocic absolutely dominated Mark Hunt in a fifth-round KO in Australia.
Miocic has outstanding cardio and terrific boxing with a wrestling base. He played baseball and wrestled at Cleveland St. during his collegiate days. Miocic owns additional UFC wins over the likes of Nelson, Fabio Maldonado and Gabriel Gonzaga. His other defeat came in a second-round KO loss to Stefan Struve in 2012.
Werdum tipped the scales at 240 pounds, while Miocic was 241 at the weigh-ins.
Prediction: My honest assessment is that I have no idea what’s going to happen in this fight. Early KO win by Miocic? I wouldn’t be shocked. Early, mid or late submission from Werdum? I wouldn’t be surprised. Close fight that goes to the judges? Much stranger things have happened. I’m not going to sit on the fence, though. I slightly lean to Werdum, but I don’t want to eat that ‘chalky’ price. I’ll just go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +110 payout.
In the co-main event, former Strikeforce middleweight champ Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (22-4-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) will collide with former UFC light heavyweight champ Vitor Belfort. As of Friday, most spots had Souza installed as a significant -320 favorite, while Belfort was the +260 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -155, ‘over’ +135).
Before entering the UFC, Souza captured notable wins over the likes of Ed Herman, Derek Brunson, current UFC welterweight champ Robbie Lawler, Tim Kennedy and ‘Mayhem’ Miller.
Souza, another Brazilian with sick BJJ skills, won his first five UFC fights over Chris Camozzi, Yushin Okami, Francis Carmont, Gegard Mousasi and Camozzi again when he served as a late replacement for Yoel Romero, who pulled out due to a meniscus tear eight days before the bout.
Four of Souza’s UFC wins have come by finishes. He submitted Camozzi twice in the opening round and KO’d Okami in Round 1. He won a UD over Carmont and choked out Mousasi in Round 3 of their main-event scrap.
But Souza’s eight-fight winning streak (three W’s outside of the UFC) ended this past December at UFC 194 when Romero won a split decision. Romero tested positive for a banned substance, but the result wasn’t altered.
Belfort (25-11 MMA, 14-7 UFC) won the UFC’s 205-pound strap with a win over Randy Couture at UFC 46. ‘The Phenom’ made his Octagon debut in Dothan, Alabama, where he won two fights in the same night on Feb. 7 of 1997.
The 39-year-old Brazilian has only been an underdog five times in his career, posting a 2-3 record with wins as a short ‘dog over Rich Franklin and Matt Lindland. Since 2007, Belfort owns an 11-3 record with his only defeats coming in UFC title fights against Anderson Silva, Jon Jones (at 205) and Chris Weidman.
Belfort has fought only twice since testosterone replacement therapy was banned, losing to Weidman by first-round KO before responding with a head-kick KO win in the opening round over Dan Henderson. In the loss to Weidman at UFC 187 last May, Belfort dominated the first 90 seconds of the fight, rocking the then-champ with a barrage of kicks and punches that had him bleeding and playing defense.
Once Weidman regained his faculties, however, he scored a takedown and then went to work in ground-and-pound fashion. When Belfort was mounted, he couldn’t escape and the referee intervened at the 2:53 mark as Belfort could do nothing other than cover up.
At the age of 39, Belfort doesn’t appear over the hill just yet. In fact, the age gap isn’t very wide here with Souza, 36, competing in only nine less fights in his MMA career.
Prediction: Souza should be favored, but this price seems too high for me. I don’t love Belfort by any means here, but he has a solid chance, especially in the opening round when he’s fresh and his kicks and punches are producing the most power, against any fighter in any weight class. He can KO Souza in the early going. This fight is all Jacare if it goes to the ground, however. Belfort has fought in Brazil six times in his storied career. He owns a 6-0 record in those fights with five first-round finishes. His victim list is a who’s who of the sport both past and present, including Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson (twice), Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, Michael Bisping, current middleweight champ Luke Rockhold. Only Bisping made it out of the first round before losing by a head kick that caused permanent damage to one of his eyes. Give me Belfort as the big +260 underdog for one unit.
Cris Cyborg (15-1-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is slated to make her Octagon debut in her native country. Cyborg is the current Invicta FC featherweight champion and the former Strikeforce women’s featherweight champ. She normally fights at 145 pounds, but this bout versus Leslie Smith is being contested at a 140-pound catchweight. Both ladies tipped the scales at 139 pounds.
Cyborg is considered by many to be the best women’s mixed martial artist in the world, especially since Ronda Rousey was dethroned by Holly Holm. There has been speculation for years that Cyborg and Rousey will eventually fight, and that notion will get an extra spark after Cyborg successfully made this weight cut. She would need to lose four extra pounds to compete in the women’s bantamweight loop.
Many MMA scribes have taken to twitter [Friday] to discuss how dangerous this weight cut was for Cyborg and to take issue with those suggesting she make it all the way down to 135. Those critics probably have fair points, especially when you consider that her trainer said she will be up in the 168-170 range by the time she walks into the cage Saturday night.
According to UFC President Dana White, Smith (8-6-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) was the only woman who expressed an interest in taking this fight. Holm reportedly turned down an offer to face Cyborg.
Smith has won two of her last three fights, including a UD triumph over Rin Nakai on March 20 in Australia. She scored a first-round KO win over Jessamyn Duke last July. Smith’s two UFC defeats have come against Sarah Kaufman, the former Strikeforce champ, and seventh-ranked Jessica Eye. Her most notable victory under the Invicta FC banner came in 2013 over Raquel Pennnington, who is currently ranked 10th in the women’s bantamweight loop.
As of Friday night, most spots had Cyborg as the biggest ‘chalk’ on the card in the -1500 range (she’s -1800 at BetUS), leaving Smith at +900 (risk $100 to win $900). Even the total has a huge price tagged on the ‘under’ (1.5 rounds, -280). Gamblers who think Smith can push the fight past the midway point of Round 2 can collect a nice +230 return (risk $100 to win $230).
Prediction: This is the type of expensive price we’ve only seen in the past in mismatches involving Rousey, Silva and Jones. Hell, to take Cyborg to win inside the distance requires a -925 risk. 5Dimes has Cyborg at -200 to win in Round 1. That’s the only wager I would suggest that one consider, but I don’t even want to touch that ‘chalk.’ I’ll pass.
In a light-heavyweight contest, Brazilian legend Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (23-10 MMA, 7-8 UFC) will collide with 12th-ranked Corey Anderson. Rua, the 34-year-old former UFC 205-pound champ and PRIDE middleweight champ, had lost four of his five previous fights until bouncing back in his last outing with a UD win over Antonio Rogerio ‘Little Nog’ Nogueira at UFC 190. Both fighters garnered an extra $50,000 bonus for Fight of the Night honors.
Rua spent his 20s destroying foes. Since beating Lyoto Machida to win the UFC’s light-heavyweight strap, however, he’s too often been on the wrong end of one-sided beatdowns. He took an enormous amount of punishment when he lost the belt to Jon Jones at UFC 129 in March of 2011. After a nice bounce-back win over Forrest Griffin by first-round KO, Shogun and Dan Henderson waged perhaps the greatest fight in MMA history at UFC 139.
Henderson destroyed Rua in the first two rounds, flooring him multiple times with Hendo Bombs. He scored a takedown and peppered Rua’s face with ground-and-pound punishment. But late in the third round, Rua still had life somehow. He reached deep into the tank and found wind from somewhere and completely turned the fight around. It was Rua that dominated the fourth and fifth stanzas, but he had clearly lost the first three and lost by UD.
Rua responded with a fourth-round KO of Brandon Vera, but he absorbed punishment galore even in victory. He proceeded to drop back-to-back bouts to Alexander Gustafsson (UD) and Chael Sonnen, though we’ll note he escaped the Sonnen defeat unscathed from a punishment standpoint. Sonnen won by guillotine choke late in Round 1 after most of the stanza was spent wrestling and grappling.
Following a first-round KO win over James Te Huna in December of 2013, Rua got another shot at Henderson. Rua was having his way through the first two rounds, but he was caught by a desperate Hendo Bomb early in the third. The punch broke Rua’s nose and re-arranged it in a grotesque manner. Henderson pounced on Shogun after dropping him and finished the fight.
Rua took on Ovince Saint Preux in a main event in Brazil in November of 2014, only to get KO’d in only 34 seconds to provide OSP with his breakout performance. Shogun’s last trip in the cage came last August in the aforementioned victory over Little Nog.
Alhough Rua is ‘at home’ and is ranked higher (eighth), Anderson is favored. With that said, there’s clearly been plenty of steam behind wagers on Rua in the last 24 hours. In the weeks leading into this contest, Anderson has been favored in the minus 220-230 range. But by Friday night, most spots had Anderson down to around -160. If you like Shogun to win, you’re kicking yourself if you didn’t get your wager in earlier this week. He’s now just an underdog around +135. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -190, ‘under’ +160).
Anderson (8-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC), at the age of 26, certainly has a great shot at adding to his resume in this spot. He has won three straight fights, all by UD, over Jan Blachowicz, Maldonado and Tom Lawlor. Even though he’s catching an aging Shogun who isn’t nearly as dangerous as he was in his prime, this is still a big step up in class and his toughest opponent to date.
Prediction: I lost belief in Shogun several years ago. He’s a warrior who has accomplished everything in the sport, but when was his last quality win? I’m not putting much stock in the UD win over Little Nog or the first-round KO of Te Huna, who has lost four fights in a row. Vera is no longer in the UFC and Griffin has been retired for several years. We really have to go back to the second Machida fight in May of 2010 to give Shogun a legit win of any ‘quality.’ With that said, this is going to be a raucous environment for Anderson in Brazil. Will the stage be too big for him at this early point in his career? We shall see. Again, I’ll pass.
When the Silva-Hall bout was scratched, a welterweight scrap between Bryan Barberena and Warley Alves was elevated to the main card. Alves is a -600 favorite with Barberena available at +450 on the comeback.
In the prelims headliner, sixth-ranked Demian Maia (22-6 MMA, UFC) will take on eighth-ranked Matt Brown in a crucial welterweight contest. Most books had Maia as a -340 favorite Friday night, leaving Brown as an attractive +280 underdog.
Brown (20-13 MMA, 13-7 UFC) owns a 5-2 record in his last seven fights from the underdog role. ‘The Immortal’ rode a seven-fight winning streak from February of 2012 into the summer of 2014. His last three victories garnered him four fight-night bonuses, including Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night honors in his main-event win over Erick Silva in Cincinnati.
Since then, Brown has lost back-to-back UDs to current welterweight strap holder Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, who was the champ before losing the belt to Lawler. After those defeats, Brown bounced back to submit Tim Means late in the opening round of UFC 189.
Maia has won four consecutive fights over Alexander Yakovlev, Ryan LaFlare, Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson. The wins over Magny and Nelson look even more impressive considering what those fighters have done since then. When Maia submitted Magny by rear-naked choke at UFC 190, he earned a 50K Performance of the Night bonus.
Maia once fought for UFC gold against Silva at UFC 112, losing a UD in Abu Dhabi. He moved to the 170-pound division in July of 2012. Since then, he has compiled a 7-2 record with wins over Jon Fitch, Rick Story and Dong Hyun ‘The Stun Gun’ Kim. His only setbacks at welterweight have come against Jake Shields in a split decision and Rory MacDonald in a UD that took Fight of the Night honors at UFC 170.
Prediction: Both of these guys are monsters. Maia probably has the best BJJ skills in all of mixed martial arts, while his wrestling and grappling is some of the best in the welterweight loop. Brown has endless cardio, a solid ground game and savage kickboxing. Brown’s stand-up game is diverse, as he comes with elbows, kicks, knees and punches. I make a habit of NOT turning down Brown at big underdogs odds. It has worked for me to the tune of the following payouts in these victories over Silva (+180), Jordan Mein (+275), Mike Swick (+140) and John Howard (+230). I missed out on a +180 opportunity when Brown handed Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson the lone loss of his UFC tenure. I think this is a toss-up fight. I can understand Maia being favored, but no more than -160. Give me three units on Brown for the sick +280 return.
**B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets**
-- If you can get John Lineker at -150 or less (expensive), I’m all for one unit on Lineker to beat Rob Font.
-- In the headliner on FightPass, Little Nog is a +200 underdog versus Patrick Cummins. I’ll pass.
-- Gray Maynard will make his featherweight debut at The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale on Friday, July 8, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. ‘The Bully’ will take on Fernando Bruno, who lost his Octagon debut to Glaico Franca last August. Maynard twice challenged Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title in 2011, hurting ‘The Answer’ badly in the first round of both contests. However, Edgar somehow survived the opening round of both fights, retaining his belt in a controversial draw (one I scored in favor of Maynard) in the first bout before winning by fourth-round KO in the second showdown. Maynard has fallen on hard times since then, however, losing four consecutive fights. The 37-year-old Las Vegan hasn’t tasted victory since taking a split-decision win over Clay Guida in Atlantic City in June of 2012.
-- Former lightweight and welterweight champion B.J. Penn is coming out of retirement and is training at Jackson-Winklejohn Academy in Albuquerque. ‘The Prodigy’ was scheduled to face veteran featherweight Dennis Siver at UFC 199, but the German kickboxer pulled out of the fight earlier this week due to an injury. Siver has been replaced by another veteran in Cole Miller, who will battle Penn in Los Angeles at the Fabulous Forum.
