MLB Daily Line Drive: Saturday's picks, betting odds and analysis
May 12, 2017 |
The weekend series continues Saturday with a full slate of games, including an NL East matchup featuring an intriguing total trend. Get analysis on today's games as well as tips on weather, umpires, and other betting trends with our daily MLB Line Drive.
Double-Play Picks
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-190, 8.5)
The Nationals and their No. 1 ranked offense had to wait a day for their three-game weekend series against the rival Phillies after Friday's opener got rained out, but the two teams are ready to do battle on Saturday.
The Nationals have dropped three of their last four, but that has mostly been the fault of the bullpen which ranks 29th in ERA at 5.40. Throw in the fact Washington ranks first in runs, batting average, OPS and is second in home runs then it’s no surprise the Over is 4-0 in their last four games.
They face the Phillies Nick Pivetta, who is making just his third start of the season. The young right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA, with an opponent’s OBP of .417.
On the bright side for the Phillies, their offense has been surprisingly solid this season, scoring 4.75 runs per game, including 6.7 in the last three games. Additionally, the Over is 7-0 in Phillies last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter and is 10-1 in Phillies last 11 road games.
Philadelphia faces Nats’ righty Tanner Roark and although he has held the Phillies to two earned runs in two starts against them this year, this game is trending over with the way theses two teams are playing.
Pick: Over 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-150, 10.5)
The Diamondbacks have been one of the pleasant surprises through the early part of this major league season, riding a balanced roster to a 21-16 record after a disappointing 69-93 2016 campaign. The D-backs continue their four-game series with struggling Pirates Saturday.
Arizona ranks in the top 10 in many statistical categories this season on offense, including runs (8th), batting average (8th), OPS (8th), stolen bases (1st), as well as on the mound, including ERA (10th), WHIP (10th), strikeouts (3rd) and quality starts (9th).
The D-backs have done most of their damage at home this season, going a National League best 15-6 in 21 games at Chase Field. They send Taijuan Walker to the hill Saturday in hopes of taking their third straight game against the Buccos. Walker is 3-2 this season with a 3.82 ERA, racking up 40 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the stumbling Pirates have dropped six straight ball games and send rookie Trevor Williams to mound. Williams is making just his second start of the season and the third of his career and was roughed up for eight runs (six earned), on seven hits in just three innings pitched in his last outing.
Pick: Diamondbacks -150
Yesterday's Picks 1-0 (Phillies-Nationals game rained out)
Season to Date: 30-24-2
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Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Trevor Cahill, San Diego Padres (3-2, 3.06 ERA, $215)
After a surprisingly decent start to the season, the Padres have returned to the mean losing seven of their last nine games, but that has not been the fault of starting pitcher Trevor Cahill.
The Padres right-hander has been dealing in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run on four hits over 11.1 innings pitched, racking up 14 strikeouts in the process. The Padres are -138 road favorites today against the White Sox.
Slumping: Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants (1-4, 6.52 ERA, $-542)
It has been an all-around bad start to the year for the Giants, who are in last place in the National League West and are dealing with an injury to ace Madison Bumgarner. Unfortunately, the rest of the rotation has not picked up the slack, including Moore.
Moore has allowed a combined 12 earned runs in his last to starts, giving up 12 hits and eight walks in the process and the Giants have lost his last five starts overall. The Giants are -132 home favorites against the visiting Reds.
Saturday's Top Trends
* The Over is 7-0 in Zach Davies' last seven home starts. O/U: 9 Brewers vs. Mets.
* The Athletics are 3-13 in Grays last 16 road starts. A's -110 @ Rangers.
* The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. -210 vs. Rays left Blake Snell.
* The Over is 7-0-1 in Norris' last eight road starts. O/U: 8.5 Tigers @ Angels.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Balls could be flying out of AT&T Park in San Francisco on Saturday as there is a hitters wind in the forecast. Winds will be blowing out to center at 16 miles per hour at first pitch and gusting up to 20-21 miles per hour later in the game. The total for the game is currently 8.
The forecast is calling for a chilly night in Washington, when the Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies. Temperatures will be in the mid 50’s for the game with winds of 9-12 miles per hour wind coming in from left field. Skies will be overcast but there is a minimal chance of precipitation. The total is 8.5.
Ump of the Day
Bill Welke: The Over is 6-1 (85.7 percent) in the seven games Welke has been calling balls and strikes in 2017 and that isn’t a new trend. Since 2015, the Over is 40-59 in games he was behind the plate. That is a 67.8 percent rate. Welke will have the gear on today at Busch Stadium as the Cardinals welcome the Chicago Cubs. During his last 16 games at Busch Stadium behind home the Over has cashed 13 times (81.2 percent). The total is currently 7.5.