MSU, Duke meet in Final Four Saturday
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (27-11) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (33-4)
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – National Semifinal
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -5.0
No. 1 seed Duke takes on No. 7 seed Michigan State, as coaching legends Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo lead their teams into the Final Four for the 12th time combined in the past 20 seasons.
Here is the betting preview for this matchup:
The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans face off in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 1998 (and the second time in the Final Four). The Blue Devils and Spartans have played nine times in total over that span, and Duke is 8-1 SU (3-5-1 ATS). Coach K’s one loss to Tom Izzo was a regional final in 2005 where the Blue Devils lost as 4-point favorites. Duke and Michigan State’s most recent meeting was Nov. 18 of this season, with the Blue Devils coming out on top, 81-71, covering the 8.5-point spread. This game, also played in Indiana (Banker’s Life Fieldhouse) was the second game of the season for the Spartans (third for the Blue Devils). Both teams shot over 50% from the field with Duke’s Quinn Cook and Jahlil Okafor combining for 36 points on 15-for-22 from the field. Michigan State held a +10 advantage on the glass, but shot only 5-for-20 from three (compared to Duke’s 7-for-14 from three). Duke is 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) in its past 10 games, while Michigan State is 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in that same span. Both the Blue Devils and Spartans have covered (4-0 ATS) in their respective tournament games to date. Duke took care of No. 2 seed Gonzaga (66-52) as a 1.5-point favorite to reach this point, while Michigan State knocked off No. 4 seed Louisville (76-69) as a 2-point favorite. The total has gone Under in six of Duke’s past eight games, while it’s gone Over in eight of Michigan State’s past 11 games.
Michigan State rolls into this meeting as a much different team than they were in November. As Tom Izzo-coached teams so oftenly do, the Spartans are peaking at the perfect time. An issue for Michigan State, however, will be making Duke’s backcourt uncomfortable. To outrebound Duke in November by 10 and still lose by 10 points, the Spartans need to look no further than the fact that they didn’t force one turnover out of Duke guards Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones. Duke also held a huge edge at the free throw line (20-26 FTM), as Michigan State committed 22 fouls to Duke’s 16. The most anticipated matchup, however, will be what happens when Duke is on offense and Michigan State is on defense. Izzo has the Spartans playing their best defensive basketball of the season, as all four Michigan State tournament opponents have shot worse than 36.5% FG. Duke comes in with the 3rd ranked field goal offense in the country, and shot 54% against Michigan State in November, although it’s notable that Duke has struggled (by their standards) in their past two tournament games from the field, shooting 44% and 38% respectively. The Spartans are led by their trio of stars, senior G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.2 3PM), junior G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG) and senior F Branden Dawson (12.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 55% FG). Trice has taken the scoring burden head-on in the tournament, leading the Spartans in three of their four wins while averaging 19 points per game and hitting 3.3 threes per game. Trice is also shooting an impressive 89% from the line after hitting just 69% over the regular season. Valentine has been more aggressive on offense in the Spartans’ most recent two victories, taking 32 shots en route to 33 points. (After taking just 15 shots in their opening round wins). Valentine also has racked up 18 assists with only 5 turnovers in four tournament games. Dawson has scored single digits in his past two contests, but boasts 11-rebound performances in each game (while also blocking four shots versus Louisville). G Bryn Forbes (8.6 PPG) has been a key offensive contributor for the Spartans off the bench, averaging 29 MPG in the tournament and making 53% of his threes (2.3 3PM) in that span.
Amidst all of the superlatives Duke has racked up, whether it be for their fifth-in-the-nation scoring offense (79.5 PPG), which shoots 50.2% from the field (3rd in NCAA), or their ever-climbing offensive efficiency as they’ve played effective offense while controlling pace in the tournament (1.2 points per-possession, 2nd in NCAA), the most important vehicle to Duke reaching the Final Four has been its defensive efficiency. Early in ACC conference play, all that was talked about when mentioning Duke was its much-maligned defense in losses to Miami and North Carolina State. Duke even went to a gimmick 2-3 zone defense to try and stop the bleeding. Now, here they are in the tournament and haven’t given up more than 0.89 points per-possession in any of their four games, while holding one of the best offenses in the country (Gonzaga) to 52 points. G Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 2.8 3PM), C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG) and F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) have all been stalwarts in Duke’s tournament success. Okafor has not quite been his dominant self in the tournament with teams selling out to double him in the post, but he’s still managed 15 points per game on 66% from the field, and has contributed two blocks per game on defense. Cook has played fantastic defense in the tournament, neutralizing Utah’s Delon Wright and Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos, while scoring 14.5 points per game himself. Winslow has been a ball of fire on defense, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game (double figures in three of four) along with 1.5 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. G Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) has been steady, but his heroics haven’t been needed to this point. Jones did score 15 points with six assists versus Gonzaga in his best performance of the tournament.
Wisconsin, Kentucky meet in Final Four Saturday
WISCONSIN BADGERS (35-3) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (38-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – National Semifinal
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -5.0
After a scare against Notre Dame, undefeated Kentucky looks to continue their magical season in a Final Four rematch from 2014 versus Wisconsin.
Here is the betting preview for this matchup:
Kentucky and Wisconsin have been here before, and it resulted in one of the better tournament games in recent memory, a 74-73 Final Four win for the Wildcats (who were favored by 1) on a heroic Aaron Harrison three pointer. The 5-point spread marks a tie for the lowest amount that Kentucky has been favored this season (Dec. 27 at Louisville) and is the first time that the Wildcats have been less than a double-digit favorite since Mar. 3 at Georgia. Kentucky defeated a Notre Dame team (68-66) in the regional final to get to this point, failing to cover at -11. Wisconsin will go into its second straight game as an underdog, having beaten Arizona at +1.5 to send Bo Ryan to his second straight Final Four and the third Final Four in Wisconsin history. The Badgers have never played in the championship game. John Calipari’s Wildcats will be looking to return to the championship game after losing the title game to Connecticut last season. Calipari will be looking for his second NCAA title in his fifth Final Four appearance. Kentucky’s program will be looking for its 9th NCAA title with two more victories in Indianapolis. Kentucky is 1-3 ATS in its four tournament games and 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games. The Wildcats are 3-2 ATS in games where they are single-digit favorites this season and 19-18-1 ATS overall. While not the length of Kentucky’s season-long streak, Wisconsin is 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) in their past 10 games. The Badgers are 20-17-1 ATS overall this season. Wisconsin is also 4-0 ATS in its tournament history when playing a No. 1 seed. The total for six of Kentucky’s past eight games has been Under, while the total has been Over for seven of Wisconsin’s past ten games.
Wisconsin gets the Final Four rematch that it may, or may not have wanted. The faces for the opposing Wildcats will have changed some, but one Aaron Harrison still remains, as the protagonist for the Badgers’ exit in 2014. Wisconsin has a better offense this time around, as C Frank Kaminsky (18.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 57% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 53% FG) and F Nigel Hayes (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 50% FG) are all much-improved players since last March. Graduated G Ben Brust is the only Badger lost of key players from last season’s loss. The Badgers were able to successfully convert 19-of-20 from the free throw line to stay within striking distance of Kentucky last season, but only got eight points and five rebounds in a quiet night from star Kaminsky in the loss. Kaminsky and Dekker enter the Final Four playing extremely good basketball – in Dekker’s case (21.8 PPG, 60% FG, 3.3 3PM/48% 3PT) the best basketball of his life. Without Dekker’s huge shot-making against Arizona (27 points, 8-for-11 FG, 5-for-6 3PT) with contested three’s in big moments, the Badgers would very likely be watching the Final Four from Madison, Wisconsin. Kaminsky contributed a game-high 29 points versus Arizona, and has really upped his production going to the basket and drawing contact, averaging 6.5 made free throws per game (up from 3.6 FTM/G) in four tournament games. If Kaminsky can get the talented and imposing Kentucky big men in foul trouble, it’d really turn the tables in Wisconsin’s favor to reach the title game. Wisconsin’s offense is very similar, from a pace and efficiency standpoint (1.22 points per-possession, 1st in NCAA) to Notre Dame’s. They don’t turn the ball over (7.1 TO/G, 1st in NCAA), don’t foul, and always make the extra pass. They feature the three quite as much, but Kentucky was hurt just as much by Zach Auguste and lapses in defensive rotations due to a patient offense than anything else. What should make this game interesting is that the Badgers have the size that the Fighting Irish lacked to compete on defense against Kentucky. Unsung backcourt mates G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 42% 3PT, still undefeated as starter) and G Josh Gasser (6.9 PPG, 1.3 3PT) have to be accounted for due to their ability to knock down open jumpers when the defense collapses on Wisconsin’s talented frontcourt. Gasser hit big shots en route to 10 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight.
Kentucky looked human for the first time in a long while as they desperately watched Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant sail a three point attempt to blemish its perfect record. The faces on the Kentucky players told the story: This was a truly happy and relieved bunch to make the Final Four. Kentucky is beatable, but it is still the best team in the country. If this is a wake-up call and Coach Calipari has the Wildcats come out swinging, it could be a very long evening for Wisconsin. F Karl Towns (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG) was outstanding in a breakout offensive game for the projected lottery pick, feasting on Notre Dame’s undersized interior for post field goal after field goal on the way to 25 points on 10-of-13 from the field. There’s no doubt that Kentucky is at home right now if not for Towns, who also posted a 21-point, 10-rebound effort in the first round win over Hampton. Fellow freshman F Trey Lyles (8.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG) had been putting together a great tournament with double-figure scoring in Kentucky’s first three games, before a 9-point, five turnover dud against Notre Dame. Lyles had two blocks, but also had repeated defensive lapses allowing easy baskets for the Fighting Irish. C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will be key in a possible individual matchup versus Wisconsin’s Kaminsky. Cauley-Stein would prove the most athletic defender that Kaminsky has faced, and has blocked nine shots in the tournament over four games, but he’s been quite unproductive beyond blocks (no double-figure scoring games, six rebounds combined versus Notre Dame and Cincinnati). G Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.7 APG) has alternated good and bad games out of his four contests, while brother, G Aaron Harrison (11.3 PPG) also has only had two of four solid games, but even his one field goal versus Arizona was a huge, crunch time three – something he’s obviously made a name for doing. G Tyler Ulis (5.6 PPG, 3.8 APG), and G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM) could prove to be x-factors off the bench for Calipari.
