Saturday 4/25/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

English Premier Sa 25Apr 12:45

Southampton

v

Tottenham

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		11/10	12/5	29/10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SOUTHAMPTON	RECENT FORM
HWADHWALHWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 0 1 - 0	AWALHWADHLAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Southampton have won ten of their last 16 home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Tottenham’s top-four hopes have taken some heavy knocks in recent weeks and they could be buried by a defeat at St Mary’s. Spurs have taken just one point from five games away at top-seven teams and may struggle against a slick Saints side searching for a fourth successive home victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Southampton
1


REFEREE: Jonathan Moss STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		2/7	5	11	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAN CITY	RECENT FORM
ALALHWALALHW​ Most recent​	4 - 0 5 - 0 2 - 4 4 - 1	AWHLALHDAWNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: There have been 32 goals in the last nine meetings

EXPERT VERDICT: Man City rate a confident selection when they take on Aston Villa. The Citizens need points to guarantee Champions League football next season and they looked motivated enough against West Ham last week. Villa, however, could be feeling the effects of last week’s FA Cup semi-final success.

RECOMMENDATION: Man City-Man City double result
2


REFEREE: Mike Dean STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Championship Sa 25Apr 12:15

Brighton

v

Watford

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		7/2	14/5	17/20	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BRIGHTON	RECENT FORM
AWHLALHLHDAL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 1 - 3 2 - 2 0 - 1	HLADHWAWAWHW​ Most recent​

EXPERT VERDICT: Brighton have conceded more goals than they’ve scored at the Falmer Stadium and have lost four of their last five in the Championship so this should be a great chance for promotion-chasing Watford to take three vital points. The Hornets have won four on the spin and kept three clean sheets in the process.

RECOMMENDATION: Watford
4


REFEREE: Keith Stroud STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		13/8	23/10	19/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BURNLEY	RECENT FORM
ALHWALHDHLAL​ Most recent​	0 - 2 0 - 1 1 - 3 3 - 0	ALHDALHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Burnley have scored one goal in their last four homes

EXPERT VERDICT: Leicester can edge closer to safety with a victory at Turf Moor. Burnley are hoping to build on some positive recent home performances, but Sean Dyche’s side remain short of firepower and they could be punished by a Foxes side who have found their shooting boots in recent weeks.

RECOMMENDATION: Leicester
1


REFEREE: Anthony Taylor STADIUM

 

[superbeets]

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		21/20	23/10	16/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT C PALACE	RECENT FORM
ALHWAWHWAWHL​ Most recent​	1 - 0 4 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0	ALHDADHLALAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hull have scored twice in their last eight away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Transformed under Alan Pardew, Crystal Palace are hard to oppose. However, Hull boss Steve Bruce is a canny gaffer and he’ll instruct his team to sit deep, stay compact and deny Yanick Bolasie and pals their space. Hull have picked up just two points from a possible 18 yet remain highly competitive.

RECOMMENDATION: Crystal Palace to win 1-0
1


REFEREE: Mark Clattenburg STADIUM

 

[superbeets]

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		11/8	12/5	9/4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT QPR	RECENT FORM
HLALHLAWADHL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 1 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0	HLALHWALHDAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: West Ham have won just one of their last 12 matches

EXPERT VERDICT: West Ham look a shadow of the side that made such a fine start to the campaign and they look opposable at Loftus Road. QPR have rallied recently and were desperately unlucky to concede a late winner against Chelsea. The hosts’ greater need for the points could help push them over the line.

RECOMMENDATION: QPR
2


REFEREE: Mike Jones STADIUM

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | PHILADELPHIA at NEW ORLEANS
Play Against - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) average team (+/- 0.5 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.5 to 1.3 YPP)
59-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.6% | 29.3 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FC 186 Betting Notes

Event: UFC 186
Date: Sat. April, 25, 2015
TV/Time: (PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Bell Centre
City: Montreal, Quebec

Flyweight Championship: Demetrious Johnson (21-2-1) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (15-1-0)
Line: Johnson -155 Horiguchi +125

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will look to defend his title for the sixth time when he takes on Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC 186.

The flyweight title has been held by just one man, Demetrious Johnson, who grabbed it back at UFC 152 in late 2012 and since has defended his belt five times. He has used a multitude of different ways to get these wins, twice winning by unanimous decision in five rounds, twice by submission and once by a first round knockout. The 5’3”, 125-pound fighter has just two losses to his name, both coming by decision with the last one coming in October of 2011. Johnson is widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the history of the sport and will look to continue that dominance at this event.

His opponent, Kyoji Horiguchi, was the bantamweight champion in the Shooto circuit in Japan and made his way over to UFC in late 2013. He has fought four times in the states, with three of the fights being in the flyweight division, and came away the victor each time. Twice he won by decision while getting the other two via knockout (punches) in the first seven minutes of the match. That is typically the way that he goes with nine of his career 15 wins coming by TKO mainly with punches. He is a second degree black belt and should be able to give Johnson quite a fit in this fight.

“Mighty Mouse” has been absolutely dominant in his recent fights as he defends his title, landing 361 significant strikes compared to just 135 from his opponent. Overall he averages 3.54 significant strikes per minute and lands them with 52% accuracy. This is not what typically puts him above his opposition by so much, but rather it is his ability to get the takedown and wear them down. He gets 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon and has 18 total takedowns in his five defenses of this title.

His most recent defense was one of his more impressive as he won in the second round with a Kimura submission. He landed 27-of-43 significant strikes (62%) against Chris Cariaso back at UFC 178 and let him only get in six strikes. His defense has been great as well, as he deflects 66% of strike attempts against him and 64% of takedown attempts. Johnson has been one of the more dominant fighters in the history of the UFC and it is hard to imagine him losing to anybody.

If anybody can give Johnson a run for his money for the title, it is Horiguchi as he brings a flurry of punches to the octagon. He gets in 3.99 significant strikes per minute and pummeled Louis Gaudinot 44 times, including landing 68% of his attempts at his head.

He doesn’t have the best accuracy with a mere 48% of his strikes hitting the mark, but his eight career wins by punches shows how solid those landed punches are. While he is throwing a ton of hits, he is also doing a fantastic job at avoiding his opponent and takes a mere 1.66 strikes per minute, deflecting 69% of his opposition’s attempts.

His weakness could be the takedown and he only has been able to defend against them 50% of them time, hitting the mat twice in his four matches in UFC. Johnson also won’t have to worry about submissions as Horiguchi has yet to earn a win with this tactic and has yet to even attempt one in his four UFC battles. He will need to land a timely punch in order to take down the champion in this one.

Other UFC 186 Bouts

Middleweight Matchup
Michael Bisping -150
C.B. Dollaway +130

Light Heavyweight Matchup
Quinton Jackson -315
Fabio Maldonado +235

Catchweight Matchup (160 lbs)
John Makdessi -180
Shane Campbell +155

Bantamweight Matchup
Yves Jabouin +340
Thomas Almeida -420

Welterweight Matchup
Patrick Côté -180
Joe Riggs +155

Women's Bantamweight Matchup
Alexis Davis +160
Sarah Kaufman -190

Lightweight Matchup
Chad Laprise -290
Bryan Barberena +240

Lightweight Matchup
Olivier Aubin-Mercier -350
David Michaud +290

Welterweight Matchup
Nordine Taleb -260
Chris Clements +215

Women's Strawweight Matchup
Jessica Rakoczy +155
Valérie Létourneau -180

Women's Strawweight Matchup
Aisling Daly +210
Randa Markos -250

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Balmoral Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$3700 - NON-WINNERS OF 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME AE: NON-WINNERS OF 1 RACE LIFETIME MAY DRAW INSIDE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 SUBMIT U 5/1


# 4 TEE ROY 4/1


# 6 SIR ARTHUR D 6/1


SUBMIT U is the most respectable bet in this race. Take a look at this entrant's average speed figure of 70 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a good wager. Good driver-handler, winning 27 percent of the time. Should be supported as a magnificent wager. The driver/handler match in this one looks like a magnificent play. One look at the 6 return on investment statistic justifies that claim. TEE ROY - The handicapping group noted a sharp performance out of this interesting entrant last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to take the whole enchilada. With better than average win numbers, Leonard should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. SIR ARTHUR D - A great class horse shouldn't be be forgotten. With an avg class rating of 72 all signs point to yes. That 67 speed rating clocked in the most recent outing puts this contender in the mix in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 7:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$16000 - NW $7,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $15,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 HAVA KADABRA 10/1


# 8 ROSE RUN ORIANA 12/1


# 7 PAPER BACKED LINDY 4/1


HAVA KADABRA has a very good shot to take this contest and is a really good value bet given the line at 10/1. Horoscope said take a chance today, this standardbred is as good as any to take a shot with. Take a good long look at making this horse your win bet based on very high win percentage alone. The 6 post is on fire here at Mohawk Racetrack. More wins than the expected average. ROSE RUN ORIANA - Certainly should be given a look based on the competitive speed rating recorded in the most recent race. Take a good look at making this horse your win wager based on well above average win percentage alone. PAPER BACKED LINDY - Many bettors know speed is is such an important factor. This contender has credentials with a 88 average number. Been battling with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 89)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS, ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2013, WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE LADDIE FUTURITY. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $6,000.00 TO ENTER THE TRIALS PRIOR TO TIME OF ENTRIES CLOSING. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 SPECIAL COORS CARTEL 8/1


# 1 JJSSUNDAYNIGHTTOAST 20/1


# 4 ZOOMINFORGRADY 4/1


SPECIAL COORS CARTEL is my selection especially at such a decent 8/1. Rubalcava has him trained well to break swiftly out of the starting gate. JJSSUNDAYNIGHTTOAST - Looks very good against this group and will probably be one of the leaders. ZOOMINFORGRADY - He has been running quite well and the speed figures are among the top in this field. Has quite good front-end speed and ought to fare well against this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Pierre

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Trial - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $1500 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD SOUTH DAKOTA CERTIFIED, THAT NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHTS: 124 LBS. FINALS TO BE RUN MAY 2, 2015.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 ZOOMIN REGGIE 4/1


# 6 OKEYFREIGHT 5/2


# 5 EYESA GOIN FAST 3/1


ZOOMIN REGGIE is the strongest bet in this race. This conditioner is strong with starters in baby races. OKEYFREIGHT - Freighttrain B has proven to be a money-making sire when it comes to betting on juvenile races. Sire is so important in juvenile races and this one's babies have fared admirably while winning at a 21 percent clip. EYESA GOIN FAST - Trainer has strong win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 7:20pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 111 Milwaukee Avenue H.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 LUV BANDIT (ML=5/2)
#5 LAHSHAD (ML=8/1)
#4 VALIANT CITY (ML=7/2)


LUV BANDIT - It looks like Emigh had to know this gelding on Mar 28th when riding him for the first time. Back on again today. I like that most recent outing on March 28th at Hawthorne where he ended up second. I like a runner that makes a good late run in a sprint race and comes back in a route. LAHSHAD - This gelding registered a good speed fig of 105 in his last clash. That rating should be good enough to score today. Faces state bred foes today after finishing third versus 'open' company on April 8th. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a good effort in the last race within the last 30 days. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Hawthorne on April 8th. Could be helpful in this race. VALIANT CITY - Gelding's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance. I like this gelding a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Ran on the wrong surface in his last event. The speed rating of 115 on October 10th at Hawthorne two races back is good enough to win this event. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Becker. Better watch out for this angle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I GOT IT ALL (ML=8/5), #1 EMPIRESTRIKESAGAIN (ML=8/1),

I GOT IT ALL - Not a value play to back the favorite when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. The seventh place finish in the last event was not the greatest. When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to earn a better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt route. EMPIRESTRIKESAGAIN - This colt notched a fig in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LUV BANDIT - I would surmise that this thoroughbred should sit in the 'garden' spot, then this gelding should be flying down the stretch and romp to victory.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 LUV BANDIT to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,5] with [2,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 PLUNGE (ML=3/1)
#3 POSATIVE POTENTIAL (ML=6/1)


PLUNGE - This filly is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on April 13th, finishing third. Trainer Kauffmann gave this filly a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. The 59 last race speed fig looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. This filly gets a weight break of -6 pounds from last race. This could make a difference in this race. POSATIVE POTENTIAL - Generally, I don't like to see a filly run against the boys like she did March 29th. Good to see she's back with her own sex today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HERE COMES GRANNY (ML=8/5), #4 TAILORED SWIFT (ML=9/2), #5 SHAVELLE (ML=5/1),

HERE COMES GRANNY - Can't wager on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance event of late. This horse just hasn't looked fit recently. TAILORED SWIFT - Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance race to be worth it at nominal odds in a sprint. Garnered a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on April 7th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number. SHAVELLE - Finished third in her most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PLUNGE - Last two races this filly has shown a steady increase in her speed numbers. This magnificent animal is a top contender against these thoroughbreds today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 PLUNGE to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 4:41 PM EASTERN POST


The Excelsior Stakes

10.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#8 TURCO BRAVO
#6 RED RIFLE
#7 WICKED STRONG
#3 STORMIN MONARCHO

Well folks ... part of the job of the Aqueduct Handicapper who produces the "morning line" for the track programs, is to "estimate" what the final odds will be at "post time" by the betting public. He has established #7 WICKED STRONG as the "even money" morning line favorite ... even "Yankee Fans" (like me), understand the concept of "Wicked Strong" as it relates to the moniker given to the city of Boston after the horrible Boston Marathon Bombing Incident, so the handicapper has correctly established WICKED STRONG as the betting favorite ... however both Yankee and Red Sox Fans will realize that there are "Shots and Bombs" with more talent ... Here in the 103rd renewal of this graded stakes test, #8 TURCO BRAVO, a Chilean-bred entry, and a 10-1 BOMB, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last four outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. #6 RED RIFLE, another 10-1 BOMB on my list, is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this stakes field racing at today's distance of 10.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his respective last five outings, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. And for you folks who enjoy a little Thoroughbred racing "trivia" to accompany your handicapping efforts this afternoon ... EXCELSIOR is the motto of New York State, a Latin term meaning "upward, ever upward."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 4/25 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (16 - 23 / $58.60): SIR ARTHUR D (6th)

Spot Play: MOLLY GO LIGHTLY (8th)


Race 1

(8) BLOODBATH MCGRATH makes his second start of the year and should offer a nice price in an evenly-matched race. (2) TEAM COUGAR gelding looks terrible on paper but is capable of a good burst of speed if he minds his manners. (4) CLEAR CREEK RAY has room to improve in a field full of question marks.

Race 2

(6) CASEY AT BAT sophomore pacer comes off two really nice qualifiers and flashed some ability as a 2-year-old. (4) COMECATCHME lightly raced pacer kicked home nicely against better last week and has some upside. (5) DUNESIDE MATT has also been facing better and just needs a trouble-free trip to be in the mix.

Race 3

(5) MR LELAND'S FILLY looks to be ready for another big year; short price. (1) LEX filly should be primed for a better effort and gets her regular driver back in the bike. (3) SOUTHERN GIRL well bred filly will need to step her game up but she could have it in her.

Race 4

(2) DIXIE'S BOY could be catching his main rivals at a great time. The pacer comes off a nice try against older and owns a big burst of speed when timed right. (6) EARNDAWG two-year-old champ could need a start but does show two good qualifiers. (1) ROCKIN CASSINOVA nice-looking pacer has a ton of upside and could be the sleeper of the 3-year-olds going into this year.

Race 5

In a field with few contenders (5) LITTLE HANK should offer better value and could use some racing luck. (4) SPEED RACER will look to make it four wins in a row; short price. (3) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL will look to go coast to coast taking no prisoners; fires early.

Race 6

(6) SIR ARTHER D makes his third start of the year and was trapped in with nowhere to go last out. (1) DELIGHT FASHION 3-year-old colt showed a lot of potential in his career debut and has room to move forward. (3) SCARY HARRY well bred gelding comes off a big qualifier but could be using the race as a tune up.

Race 7

(8) MYSTICAL WISHES four-year-old trotting mare finds a much softer spot to fire in her second start back. (1) RED SOLO CUP well bred stallion comes into the race off a nice qualifier and appears to be ready for a good effort. (5) CLEVER UPSTART will offer a big price but is best used underneath.

Race 8

(2) MOLLY GO LIGHTLY was the top driver's choice and takes a significant drop in class. (4) DP ANGEL makes her third start back off a layoff and could be primed for a better effort. (7) JUST BY DESIGN mare owns a ton of back class but is handicapped by the pilot; command a price.

Race 9

(4) FORT SILKY pacer looked to be home free last out before just tiring a bit late. (5) ICE SCRAPER will likely be setting a fast pace upfront; fires early. (2) IAM BONASERA was really rough gaited throughout the mile last week. The pacer has a history of going south after a bad start; use caution.

Race 10

(2) REAL WINNER Indiana bred makes his third start back off a layoff and looks to be primed for a big effort against easier. (6) WILDCAT BOBBY pacer has been sharp and just needs a good setup to hit the ticket at a price. (8) WASHINGTON HANOVER is capable of pacing a good mile but needs a good drive; versatile.

Race 11

(1) JACKSON'S IMAGE nice-looking pacer has been facing tougher older opponents but has shown improvement. (6) WHY ASK WHY was the driver's choice and could have needed his last start off the scratch. (4) REJOICEANDBEGLAD had a ton of sneaky late pace last out; threat.

Race 12

(4) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE impeccably bred stallion faces much easier competition and will be used aggressively. (3) REAL OR MAGIC seven-year-old stallion gets sent out for a hot barn and drops back down a class. (2) MAJOR MONET picks up a huge driver change and should be in a good spot turning for home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 4/25 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,5,6,7/5/2,3,5/1,3,4,9 = $48


LATE $1 PICK 4: 3,4,7/5,8/9/1,3,4,6,8,9 = $36

MEET STATS: 25 - 84 / $105.50 BEST BETS: 6 - 8 / $19.60 SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 6 / $0.00

Best Bet: WEST SIDE STORY (5th)

Spot Play: ROETHBLISSBERGER (7th)


Race 1

(7) PAPER BACKED LINDY stormed home to just miss vs. better and looks best here. Beware taking too short a price as he is prone to breaking. (3) BROADWAY PRINCE wasn't that far behind the choice last time first time with Waples at the controls. Maybe he gets more aggressive tonight. (6) HAVA KADABRA showed some grit last week making several moves and scoring vs. easier. He's worth a look.

Race 2

(3) SHAMBALLA - a virtual win machine at this track last summer - served notice he is ready to roll again with a :53 flat back half in his qualifier; top call despite the break. (1) APPRENTICE HANOVER shakes the classy Modern Legend here and is the one to beat. (5) NICKLE BAG has been racing tough every week for months; tough to dismiss him.

Race 3

(6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER loomed up boldly last week then stalled which seemed a problem for many in the outer lanes in the stretch that night. He can take this but should be inspected on the track before wagering. (3) EXEMPLAR scored at a ridiculously high price and may be even tougher tonight now that he is back in form. (1) BOURBON BAY, the likely favorite, may be required to make several moves starting from the rail and suffer a similar fate as last week as a result.

Race 4

(5) CHAMPAGNE SHOWER closed strongly again last week but was too far back early. Maybe with the move to the middle of the gate J Mac trips this one out in a wide-open affair. (6) WILDCAT HANNA was unlucky to get nipped by a rail-skimmer last week and is another of many capable of taking this. (7) NINE LIVES HANOVER closed strongly but ran out of racetrack late. She's in top form now; using.

Race 5

Two returning to action from breaks look best here and of those we'll call (5) WEST SIDE STORY to win in his return to his homeland. He has certainly beaten better than most of these many times right here at Mohawk. (4) CANTABS FORTUNE - last seen racing in the Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Trot Final - tuned up well and looks like the main foe to the choice. (8) BODY BALANCE made two moves to win from the 10-hole last week and looks like the best of the rest.

Race 6

(5) AMERICAN ROCK has been iron-tough in every WEG start and there is no reason to expect anything different at this point; top call. (2) GOOD FRIDAY THREE has shown great promise in his first two starts now steps into the deep end of the pool; he may be up to it. (3) THE WAYFARING MAN faced some top competition down south in the fall and wasn't disgraced. He could make an immediate impact here.

Race 7

(9) ROETHBLISSBERGER showed good speed early and late in his qualifier and Puddy may have him cranked up enough to beat these at a square price. (4) SUNNY BEACH DAY raced very well last week but was beaten by one that worked out a golden pocket trip; using. (3) REAL ROCKER stayed in and got into some traffic trouble. He's capable of better.

Race 8

(7) ASLAN returns from a trek south where he faced much better and performed admirably. Macdonald should be able to work out a winning trip from the 7-hole. (3) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE was done in by having to pace a sub-:27 third 1/4 in the Preferred last week. He's the one to beat. (4) PISTON BROKE hung a bit last week but may have been pacing on the worst part of the track in the lane. He is capable.

Race 9

(5) BET YA is as tough as they come, racing and producing either on the lead or first-up every week - call to repeat. (8) ARTISTIC MADISON roared home to fall just short to the choice. The far outside post does her no favors, however. (3) DRIVINGTHEDRAGON N steps up to face much better and likely suffers her first loss on Canadian soil here.

Race 10

(9) ROCK N ROLL XAMPLE drops back into a class where she should be very competitive. The break in her last race following a two-week break is concerning, though; call on top but mixed signals. (5) MISS COCO LUCK made two moves to beat easier in a much-improved effort; using. (1) MACHNBYRD PRINCESS has missed three weeks but can be competitive here if that break doesn't hurt.

Race 11

(8) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL worked out a sweet trip and converted last week. The only condition he meets for this race is: Also Eligible - 4 Year Olds and he should be tough here, too. (6) PUSH BACK is consistently competitive in this class and should be there in the money again. (9) TWOMICKEYTRIP looked home free then drifted out several lanes while tiring late. He may revert to a deep closing style here and vault past several late. (4) SOMEWHERE FANCY qualified nicely and was facing better when last seen; contender. (3) IDEAL JET powered home late to win last week and could better this placing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 4/25 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 166 - 622 / $901.30 BEST BETS: 21 - 51 / $79.90

Best Bet: ODDS ON EQUULEUS (7th)

Spot Play: SOTO (3rd)


Race 1

(7) DRAGON EDDY showed some promise as a 2-year-old and has been chasing in some quick miles at the Southern Oaks Training Center to prepare for his debut; narrow call. (3) COASTER was in some tough spots at Pocono. Maybe the big track and the switch to Gingras will wake him up. (2) TOMY TERROR made good money as a rookie and his qualifiers are decent, though slower than the top choice over the same track.

Race 2

(2) GRATIAS DEO went a long mile last time and hung in there nicely. His prior two starts were wins. (5) ENCODING Z TAM showed a bit more life a week ago; more improvement coming? (8) CAJON HOT SHOT has plenty of early zip and could surprise if left alone up front.

Race 3

(1) SOTO was absolutely awesome in his qualifier, finishing under a hold and clearly with something left in the tank. (2) REVENGE SHARK raced gamely on the rim despite missing a month of action; very playable. (3) GOKUDO HANOVER has won two straight but the overall level of competition continues to get tougher.

Race 4

(6) GWENEEEE J put in a valiant first-over effort despite spending a long time on the rim and chasing soft fractions. Any step forward and she romps. (1) QUICK AINT FAIR qualified well enough. If she can find room in the stretch she may pass some at a healthy price. (9) LADY SPARTACUS faced plenty of pressure but was aided by soft fractions in her victory last time; outside post hurts. (5) NEW JOEZ should flash speed and get a small piece.

Race 5

(3) BOBBY THE GREEK was simply in a tough spot and had too far to come last Saturday. He moves inside this time and needs to be kept a bit closer to the front. (1) AMERICAN MESSENGER posted a decent effort in his career debut and can certainly improve with that race in hand. (6) EDWARD TEACH scored in the first round of this series, but loses driver Gingras. (9) ROCK OF THE AGES sat a perfect trip and scored at 9-1 last time. He has his work cut out for him from the outside post.

Race 6

(3) MAJOR UPTREND raced very well at Pocono and is probably at his best on a bigger track like the Meadowlands. If he gets any kind of a clean trip, he’ll be right there in a wide open race. (7) BETTOREVER raced big in the first round to pick up a victory. Gelding has never finished off the board in eight starts this year. (12) REDISCOVERY posted a super 1:49 2/5 winning mile last week, but loses Gingras and starts from the second tier; mixed feelings. (4) ROCK OUT has high speed, but has proven to be more reliable as an exotics player.

Race 7

(7) ODDS ON EQUULEUS probably should have won last week, but few horses can be used as hard as he was and still win. He went a big opening quarter and then challenged hard while uncovered. There are no excuses tonight; clear choice. (6) SPEED AGAIN should head to the front and give a decent performance. (8) ONTARIO SUCCESS needs some pace help but is clearly capable.

Race 8

(6) IDEALBEACH HANOVER might be a reach in this spot and most won’t like that he basically hung last time, but he was facing better foes in that contest. In a race where I don’t love anyone, he seems worth a flyer. (3) APOLLO SEELSTER has won four straight at Dover and deserves respect. (4) SWEET BEACH was super last time against an awful field; water is deeper now.

Race 9

(9) ABELARD HANOVER is a horse with plenty of early speed that is coming off a wire to wire win. Don’t be surprised if Callahan makes the front and goes down the road. (4) DIAMOND SAID was driven very patiently a week ago and finished well for a minor award. If he is close, he has a shot. (2) MURDER HE WROTE should be in close attendance to the lead for a barn that is having a decent meet.

Race 10

(1) BIG JER dropped down last week to a similar level and was only fourth, but that group was better than the one he faces tonight. Six-year-old won in 1:49 2/5 at this track last year and finds the perfect spot to relive that success. (6) YOU BET YOUR GLASS drops down a notch and seems likely to be going forward early. (7) RELENTLESS DREAMER can fly in the lane if the pace is quick early.

Race 11

(4) LIMELIGHT BEACH posted a game victory in his lone qualifier of the year and seems to set up nicely in this spot whether Gingras decides to leave or look for cover. (1) FOOL ME ONCE steps up off consecutive victories and is hard to toss. (3) DOO WOP HANOVER had too far to come last time. If the trip is better he can win. (6) DOVUTO HANOVER was flat last week but is very capable.

Race 12

(5) I WANNA GO FAST comes off a nice first-over score at Rosecroft and has displayed the ability to race well here in the past. (7) CAPOZZO drops down and draws better; must use. (8) SIR CARY’S Z TAM comes out of the same race as the #7 and would be a threat with the right trip. (9) MAMBO ITALIANO has plenty of form.

Race 13

(8) ROCKAHOLIC raced evenly in his first start for this high percentage barn while facing a much better group. I’m expecting a top effort. (5) HEDGES LANE comes in sharp from Freehold and appears to be quite versatile. (2) NORTHERN PRIZE finds a field full of early speed types and could take advantage late. (9) NF DRUM ROLL wired a weaker field in this class last time from a better post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 4/25 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 125 - 381 / $649.60 BEST BETS: 16 - 30 / $60.80

Best Bet: CLEAR VISION (4th)

Spot Play: CASIMIR JITTERBUG (3rd)


Race 1

(2) MAINLAND KEY N has raced well in all recent efforts and he gets the post relief he needs tonight to be competitive. (4) THE LUNCH PAIL needs a trip and he's capable of blowing these away. (5) MCDYNAMITE was dropped into claimers last week and was immediately snatched up by Banca; given the right setup he can storm home.

Race 2

(2) HERE WE GO AGAIN was shuffled out last week after leaving for a good trip; toss out that effort and the classy gelding looms large from this spot. (3) SECOND WIND N beat similar three back and did flash some late pace last week. (1) TWIN B FAMOUS has speed and the best draw but beware he can be camera-shy and is also coming off a scratch-sick line.

Race 3

(6) CASIMIR JITTERBUG finished very well after swinging wide off a pocket trip but he couldn't get to the well-rated winner; he should be forwardly placed again and can get the job done. (1) OUTRAGEOUS ART gapped the top ones last week but he should be closer from the rail spot. (4) ONE THROUGH TEN likely isn't as good as the top choices but he has blazing early speed which should set him up for a live trip.

Race 4

(4) CLEAR VISION gets a crack at the Levy also-rans and the classy Burke trainee should have little excuse to fail. (1) TEXICAN N paid his way through the series and he can trip out from the rail spot. (2) BIG N BAD was very impressive beating lesser in his last two.

Race 5

(4) ANNDROVETTE was wildly overbet last week but managed to sprint home and got there in time to break the seasonal skid; maybe that gets the triple millionaire rolling. (5) FOR THE LADIES N was caught uncovered in her last two starts; she can be sharper late with a helmet to follow. (1) MEDUSA headlines a very unreliable Burke entry and she should be heading to the front.

Race 6 – Matchmaker Final

(1) VENUS DELIGHT may be a slight notch below some of these top mares but landing the best post may put her on par with her contemporaries. Having entrymate Krispy Apple as insurance could help if the pace falls apart late. (2A) CAROLSIDEAL is near-perfect in 10 starts since the Allard purchase and she lands a good enough post to assume she'll be the one to beat. (3) FANCY DESIRE certainly hasn't disgraced herself in the series and she could add some value to the exotics; Gingras drives.

Race 7

(6) DANCIN YANKEE charged home with plenty of pace last week after disappointing in prior legs of the series; veteran has some speedy ones inside of him but he's sharp enough to get it done. (5) MICHAEL'S POWER came up empty from the pocket last out in a race that fell apart. His prior three Levy races were super, however, so clearly he's capable of bouncing back. (2) FAT MAN'S ALLEY is always competitive when drawn inside but he needs a trip.

Race 8 – Levy Final

(5) BEACH MEMORIES took a well-deserved week off before his last Levy trial then was caught uncovered and ended up doing the dirty work for others. Recent addition to the DiDomenico barn lands a perfect midpack post here and could be in line to work out a live cover trip in this evenly-matched Levy final. (3) LUCAN HANOVER really has done little wrong in every preliminary leg but has had some bad luck along the way. He could be first over from this spot but has shown the ability to rough it. (1) MACH IT SO is one half of the Bamond entry and along with last year's champ P H Supercam they drew the two worst posts. This gelding finally put it all together last week with a big back half and he could be a closing threat with some luck.

Race 9

(8) DW'S NY YANK took a week off but he's back in action tonight and should go down the road again. (5) MODEST PRINCE closed very sharply last out and can do so again. (3) STAN THE MAN gets Sears in the bike tonight for trainer Greg Peck; that combo scored the other day.

Race 10

(1) BETTOR REASON N has looked super in his three U.S. starts and perhaps we've yet so see his best. (4) SUMMER SMACKDOWN faces a sharper field tonight and he's been good himself recently. (5) AMERICAN RAGE drops in class and he's capable of better.

Race 11

(4) PHOTOSAVVY was an easy winner with Dube in the bike when last seen here in an added-distance event; mare can roll home with any sort of pace to chase. (7) AWSOME VALLEY was going nowhere in his local return; he'll be more involved tonight. (2) JUSTA REBEL benefitted when beating lesser last out and he's classy enough to compete with better.

Race 12

(4) SMOOTH CRIMINAL is back with Sears and back at the level where he recently jogged at odds-on. (3) UNCLE GOODFELLOW takes an ambitious rise in class off the claim while in raging form; worth considering. (2) HARD TO MACH doesn't like to win but he's hit the board in his last six.