Courtesy of Mike Dempsey
Here is today’s opener from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Alw $60,000N2L (1:05 ET)
3 Off the Page 5-2
1 Special Jo 3-1
5 Ouimet 4-1
6 Strong Response 6-1
Analysis: Off the Page goes from turf to poly here after a game effort last out on the weeds at Gulfstream Park where the gelding came up just a neck shy of the top spot as the beaten favorite. The gelding broke his maiden two back in his third career start and was flattered when the runner up and ninth place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. He was third in his debut on poly at Arlington Park last summer and pedigree wise seems more suited to the faker stuff. He is a half to poly stakes winner Holiday for Kitten ($322,475) who won the Giant's Causeway on poly here at the spring '11 meeting. The Ward barn is off to a quick start at the meeting and is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to synth.
Special Jo made a good late rally to run second last out at Santa Anita Park in his first go off a 5 1/2 month layoff. This guy broke his maiden in his debut last year at Churchill Downs and then ran in four graded stakes, his best finish a runner up finish in the Sapling (G3) at Monmouth Park last September. He is by Johannesburg out of a Carson City mare and seems likely he will take to poly.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5
TRI: no play
Aqueduct Race 4 OClm $62,500N2X (2:20 ET)
8 Malibu Way 7-2
3 Yield Bogey 5-1
2 Exclusive Strike 5-2
5 Hangover Kid 8-1
Analysis: Malibu Way makes his second start off a eight month layoff for the Clement barn. This guy won the Lamplighter last year over ground labeled as good at Monmouth Park in his third career start. Last out at this level the colt stalked the early pace and then had to steady when caught in behind rivals in the stretch and could not recover. He should move forward with a better trip and already is proven over ground with some give to it. The barn is 21% winners with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Yield Bogey returns off a three month break here after failing to fire last out against non-winners of three optional claimers on the inner track. The gelding has done his best work on turf and returns to the grass here as he makes his first start off the claim by former Canani assistant Danny Gargan. Blinkers go on and this old timer is has finished in the money in seven graded stakes in his career. He has run well off the bench in the past and while he has lost a step or two from his younger days he looks like he fits here and may end up a decent price.
Wagering
WIN: No.8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EXACTA: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8
TRIFECTA: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 1,2,3,5,8
Keeneland Race 5 Alw $60,000N1X (3:05 ET)
8 Mudflats 4-1
10 Red Rifle 3-1
4 Hard Acres 8-1
11 Pyrite Mountain 6-1
Analysis: Mudflats gets some needed class relief here after trying to head down the Derby Trail. Last out the gelding faded to finish a non threatening sixth in the Sunland Derby (G3) and two back had a troubled trip in a fifth place finish in the San Vicente (G2) where he was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths for the top spot. This will be his first go on poly but is certainly bred to handle it, by Tapit out of a Tale of the Cat mare.
Red Rifle tracked the early pace and drew off smartly to break his maiden in his debut going seven furlongs on the main track at Gulfstream Park. The $250,000 Keeneland purchase has a nice pedigree, by Giant’s Causeway out of the stakes winner May Night ($355,568). The colt has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to two turns. The Pletcher barn is 34% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering
WIN: No.8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EXACTA: 8,10 / 4,8,10,11
TRIFECTA: 8,10 / 4,8,10,11 / 2,4,8,10,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Distaff Hcp G2 (4:20 ET)
7 Villanesca 8-1
4 Cluster of Stars 1-1
2 Spectacular Sky 5-2
3 Nakano 6-1
Analysis: Villanesca tracked the early pace, had to wait briefly for some running room nearing the quarter pole when the hole closed up between foes, angled out and finished gamely to get the win against Alw-2 optional claimers. The runner up Clear Passaj came back to run second in the state bed Broadway in her next outing on March 30. The filly makes her second start off a two month break and is going to be sitting off what likely is going to be a contested pace. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.
Cluster of Stars is the obvious one to beat coming into the race undefeated in four career starts. She earned a big fig last out going gate to wire to beat Alw-12 optional claimers by 9 1/4 lengths. She did catch a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. Two back she won her stakes debut by taking the Correction over a nice filly in Nicole H, with the third place finisher Singlet coming back to win the restricted Ruby Rubles in her next outing on Feb. 22. Nicole H, an eight time stakes winner came back to run fourth in the Barbara Fritchie (G2) in her next start. The Asmussen filly owns solid early and mid pace numbers and will be tough here but figures to be around 3-5. Spectacular Sky has some early zip and if they hook up the chalk could be in for a fight here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 8 The Madison G1 (4:35 ET)
6 Jamaican Smoke 5-1
1 Byrama 4-1
10 Fantasy of Flight 7-2
3 Holiday for Kitten 9-2
Analysis: Jamaican Smoke came back off a eight month layoff last out facing Alw-2 optional claimers at Gulfstream Park, dueling for the early lead and weakening inside the final furlong to check in third. She broke her maiden over the poly here in her only go over the fake stuff and two back ran a good second to Victory Ride (G3) at Belmont Park. The winner of that race to Emma's Encore, who came back to win the Prioress (G1) in her next outing. She sports a couple of bullet works at Palm Meadows since her last outing and is in good hands with the Kenneally barn. She will be tighter second off the bench and may appreciate the return to poly here.
Byrama cuts back from a mile on grass where she chased the early pace and weakened to finish third in the Buena Vista (G2) behind Mizdirection. She only has one try on a synthetic surface in her career, a runner up finish in the restricted CERF at Del Mar over polytrack last September. The cut back in distance should suit and the hot Rosario takes over.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,6,10
TRI: 1,6 / 1,3,6,10 / 1,3,6,7,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #2 Classic R and B 8-1
R3: #1 Ginger’s Joe 15-1
R4: #5 Hangover Kid 8-1
R6: #6 Pearl of Wisdom 8-1
R7: #6 Hope Still Springs 20-1
R8: #7 Villanesca 8-1
R9: #9 Washington’s Rules 8-1
Good luck today!
