Saturday's Top Action
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (28-1) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (23-7)
KFC Yum! Center – Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Virginia -3
No. 2 Virginia goes for a 10th straight victory when it faces No. 16 Louisville Saturday.
Virginia went on the road and beat Syracuse 59-47 as a 5-point favorite on Monday. The Cavaliers have allowed 57 points or less in each of their past five games and will head into this game on a nine game SU winning streak.
No. 16 Louisville, meanwhile, lost 71-59 as 4-point home favorites against Notre Dame on Wednesday. The Cardinals had won three straight games SU before that loss, but they are now 1-5 ATS in their past six contests.
These two teams met for the first time ever on Feb. 7, when the Cavaliers won 52-47 as 6.5-point favorites in Virginia. That game was not pretty, as both teams ended up shooting less than 40% from the field and 25% from the floor. The difference in the game was Virginia turning the ball over just twice compared to Louisville’s 11 miscues. The Cavaliers have thrived on the road this season, going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS. Virginia is also 14-0 SU after an ATS win, but the team is just 6-7 ATS in those games. Louisville has had no trouble winning games at home, going 14-4 SU. The Cardinals are, however, just 4-12-1 ATS in those contests. They are also 2-4 ATS when coming off of a SU loss.
Louisville will be without G Chris Jones (Personal), who was dismissed from the program. G Justin Anderson (Finger) is nearing a return but will likely sit until the ACC tournament begins.
The Cavaliers have college basketball’s best defense, allowing just 50.0 PPG (1st in NCAA). While they don’t score a lot of points (65.8 PPG, 212th in NCAA), the team’s offense is very efficient. Virginia is shooting 46.3% from the field (63rd in NCAA) and that type of accuracy combined with a stifling defense is a winning formula.
The key to this game will likely be the play of G London Perrantes (6.3 PPG, 4.7 APG). Perrantes is Virginia’s floor general and has been relied on to be more aggressive as a scorer with G Justin Anderson (13.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) out. Over the past two games, Perrantes is averaging 10.5 PPG, 8.0 APG and 1.5 SPG. He had just four points the last time he faced Louisville and absolutely must be more effective in this game.
G Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.6 APG) was the leading scorer for the Cavaliers in the last meeting with the Cardinals. He had 15 points (3-for-13 FG, 1-for-6 3PT) in that game despite not shooting the ball well.
F Anthony Gill (11.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG) also played well against Louisville in the last meeting between these teams. Gill had 10 points and eight rebounds in 28 minutes and is extremely tough to cover when he gets near the basket. He’ll come into this game feeling very confident after averaging 16.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG in his previous two contests. F Darion Atkins (7.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is going to have to be really active on both ends in this one. Atkins is a good shot-blocker and is also capable of helping the team offensively. He has three games with 10+ points in his past five contests and had nine points the last time he faced Louisville.
Louisville is averaging 69.9 PPG (107th in NCAA) on a lousy 43.0% shooting (203rd in NCAA), but defense is the team’s true strong suit. The Cardinals are allowing just 59.3 PPG (19th in NCAA) thanks to 5.7 BPG (11th in NCAA) and 8.3 SPG (15th in NCAA).
The most important player for this Louisville team is F Montrezl Harrell (15.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG). Harrell had a big game against Notre Dame Wednesday, finishing with 23 points and 12 boards in 40 minutes. He is a ferocious shot-blocker and is relentless on the glass. Once he gets two feet in the paint, he is also nearly impossible to stop on offense. Harrell had 12 points and six rebounds the last time he faced Virginia and he’ll need to be more of a focal point for this team on Saturday.
G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG) will also need to be aggressive in this one. Over the past three games, Rozier is averaging 14.3 PPG, 5.0 APG and 3.0 SPG. He has taken on a lot of the distributing duties for this team offensively, but he has maintained his high motor on defense.
The Cardinals need him to keep that up against Virginia. Since going scoreless against Syracuse on Feb. 18, G Wayne Blackshear (10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 SPG) has scored 10+ points in each of his past four games. Blackshear is a solid outside shooter (32% 3PT) and knows how to score in a number of ways. He had eight points the last time he faced Virginia, but only took four shots. He must be more aggressive this time around.
G Quentin Snider (2.9 PPG) is the new starter for this team with Chris Jones no longer being with the program. He’s averaging 7.7 PPG, 3.3 APG and 1.0 SPG in the past three contests and will need to be fearless against a tough Virginia defense.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS(27-3) at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (21-9)
Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -1
America’s most heated basketball rivalry goes for round two, as host No. 19 North Carolina looks for revenge for an overtime defeat two weeks ago against No. 3 Duke.
Duke and North Carolina meet for the 239th time (North Carolina leads the series, 133-106) in the highly anticipated rematch of Duke’s 92-90 overtime win in Durham on Feb. 18. Duke trailed by 10 points with less than four minutes left in that win, before rallying furiously. Led by freshman G Tyus Jones (11.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG), who scored the Blue Devils’ last nine points in regulation (all in roughly a minute and a half) to send the game to overtime, Duke rallied again in the extra period. Down 87-84 with three minutes left in overtime, Duke clamped down to not allow another field goal and come back for the win.
Since the heartbreaking loss, North Carolina is 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) in its last four games and has won two in a row, defeating both Miami and Georgia Tech on the road. The Tar Heels’ most recent win was a romp (81-49 in Atlanta) as Georgia Tech lost one of its best players early in the game on Tuesday and never recovered. Duke is also coming off a dominating conference win (94-51) at home versus Wake Forest. This win gives the Blue Devils a 10 game win streak, dating back to their huge road win in January versus No. 2 Virginia.
The Blue Devils are 6-4 ATS during this streak. Duke is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road in conference play. North Carolina is 5-3 SU at home in conference play, but also very shaky 1-6-1 ATS over those eight contests. The total has gone Over in four of the last five home games for North Carolina. Historically, Duke holds a slight edge over the past 20 contests (11-9 SU) but North Carolina holds the ATS advantage (12-8). Duke has also been very successful in the Dean Dome holding a 12-8 SU (12-8 ATS) advantage in the past 20 contests in Durham (dating back to 1997). The last time these two faced in Chapel Hill was a 74-66 win for the Tar Heels in late February of last season, as North Carolina was unranked and Duke was No. 5 at the time.
Duke is healthy for this contest while Tar Heels F Theo Pinson (3.4 PPG), who’d returned to play limited minutes against Georgia Tech after missing the previous 10 games, is questionable.
Duke comes into this big rivalry game absolutely rolling. The Blue Devils are fresh off a 43-point win where their best player, C Jahlil Okafor (17.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 66% FG), only recorded six points and four rebounds in 19 minutes. Duke was led by who else, but reserve freshman G Grayson Allen (3.9 PPG) as Allen proceeded to erupt for 19 first-half points versus Wake Forest in eight minutes. Allen would finish with a career-high 27 points. Okafor had a double-double (12 points, 13 rebounds) in his first taste of this rivalry, but he’s still looking for his first made free throw (0-for-6 in Durham). Okafor, already only a mediocre free throw shooter at 53% on the season is really struggling from the stripe lately (7-for-25 in his last four games). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Coach Roy Williams have North Carolina spread fouls out amongst it’s rotation to test Okafor at the line.
The Blue Devils as a whole, though have been playing startlingly good offensive basketball for the better part of the conference schedule, shooting 51% from the field (2nd in NCAA) during conference play helping them to an 81.2 PPG average in that span (3rd in NCAA). The hot shooting from the field isn’t just a few good games, as Duke has only been held below 43.5% from the field once in conference play. The aforementioned heady freshman, Jones, will be a marked man for the Tar Heels after his heroics in Durham. Without Jones’ 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists, Duke would’ve surely been leaving Cameron Indoor Stadium with a loss in the first meeting.
Fellow freshman, F Justise Winslow (12.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) continues to flourish with steady minutes following the suspension of former teammate Rasheed Sulaimon. Given a bigger role in the offense, Winslow has responded with averages of 15.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG and 55% FG since Jan. 31 (10 games).
G Quinn Cook (15.8 PPG, 2.8 3PT on 40% shooting from beyond the arc) has the most experience on the squad facing North Carolina, having scored double-figures in all five contests he’s started against the Tar Heels. Cook scored 17 points in Duke’s loss in Chapel Hill last February and he could be leaned on heavily with such a young team going into what should be a hostile environment.
North Carolina will be playing with a heavy heart, hosting this rivalry for the first time in the Dean E. Smith Center without the building’s namesake around to watch. To win, North Carolina will have to guard the three a lot better than they did in Durham (Duke shot 6-for-10 3PT), and while fouling Duke’s Jahlil Okafor might be a good strategy, they’d be wise not to waste those fouls on valuable big men.
F Brice Johnson (12.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 57% FG) is North Carolina’s best offensive weapon inside. He piled up a huge double-double (18 points and 12 rebounds) but did that all in only 24 minutes of time due to foul trouble. Okafor is going to create contact with the way he plays, but in order to maximize the strengths of Johnson and fellow F Kennedy Meeks (12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 18 points and 7 rebounds versus Duke in the first meeting) expect the Tar Heels to get more minutes out of reserve C Joel James (2.8 PPG). If the Tar Heels can neutralize Okafor again, as they did in the first matchup, while also keeping Johnson and Meeks out of foul trouble, it’d be a big aid to a win.
Getting something out of struggling G Marcus Paige (13.2 PPG, 4.4 APG) is also paramount for Coach Williams and his squad. Nobody would’ve expected, when Paige was receiving preseason ACC player-of-the-year honors, that we’d be discussing Paige as, optimistically, the third best guard on the floor in this game. However, with only two double-figure scoring efforts in his past five games (including 2-for-11 at Duke) it’s clear that last-season’s Marcus Paige isn’t walking through that door. G Justin Jackson (9.9 PPG) didn’t do much in their first meeting (1-for-8 FG, 2 points, 17 minutes) but shouldn’t be overlooked as he’s leading the team in scoring (12.8 PPG) over his past four games.
Versatile F J.P. Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.1 APG) had one of his best games of the year in the loss to Duke (15 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists), but missed a wide open jumper with a chance to take the lead late in overtime in Durham.
