3-pointer: Crowded East greets March
By Tony Mejia
In this space last week, we detailed the need for Memphis, Houston and Sacramento to ramp up their intensity level due to Utah and Portland unexpectedly emerging as potential locks to land among the Western Conference’s top eight. This week, we’ll take a look at the East squads that need to beef up their intensity level.
Spoiler alert: there are far more than three candidates.
While the Cavs and Raptors appear locked in a two-team race for the No. 1 seed, the only teams that don’t currently harbor postseason aspirations are woeful Brooklyn and Philadelphia. To properly illustrate how bunched up all these East teams are, third-place Boston opened Tuesday 11 games up on 13th-place New York. There’s basically a four-way tie for spots Nos. 6-9, while Washington and Orlando are a mere winning streak away from crashing the party.
Outside of the phenomenally-coached Celtics, who seem to keep an even keel in following Brad Stevens’ lead, the crop of East playoff contenders can be separated into three categories: the panicked old guard, those currently surging, and lastly, longshots with little to lose.
Panicked Old Guard
Paul George entered the week questioning the toughness of his Indiana teammates. More accurately, he said there’s no backbone at all.
“There’s no toughness,” George told the Indianapolis Star following Sunday’s 111-102 home loss to Portland. “If you look at playoff teams 1-8, that’s one thing that every team has in common. That’s what we’ve got to find.”
Indiana gave up 117 points to Charlotte just before the All-Star break and, according to George, teams with shooters “spread us out and they do what they want with us.” Despite making a concerted effort to play faster, the Pacers have been as successful as they’ve been over the past few seasons because they lock down defensively. It appears they’ve taken a step back guarding the perimeter without Roy Hibbert around as a security blanket to protect the rim, which allowed defenders to be more aggressive in closing out on shooters.
They followed up George’s tough talk with a strong effort in Monday’s loss at Cleveland, but covering the spread only helped Pacers backers, not the team’s playoff aspirations. The game started a stretch where six of Indiana’s next seven games will be played on the road. Its only home game will come against San Antonio on March 7, so things could get away quickly unless they take George’s challenge to heart and respond. If they don’t, implosion awaits.
Chicago continues to hang around despite Derrick Rose joining Jimmy Butler in a fancy suit on the team’s bench due to hamstring trouble. Rose is expected to play in the team’s road games this week at Miami and Orlando to open March, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. While Doug McDermott has played extremely well given increased touches, the Bulls could be without enough ammunition to survive this Florida trip, which would knock them back to .500 with just 22 games to go.
The Heat are still holding out hope that they’ll get Chris Bosh back from his blood clot issue at some point before the season ends, but Plan B is well underway. Joe Johnson has been plucked off the waiver wire after being bought out by the Nets and will be starting in a veteran-laden lineup featuring point guard Goran Dragic and fellow former All-Stars Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Amar’e Stoudemire. Erik Spoelstra is adjusting on the fly, but does have the luxury of difference-makers in Hassan Whiteside and elite rookie defenders Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson on the second unit. If Josh McRoberts can stay healthy and remain productive, Miami has enough to win the Southeast Division even if Bosh doesn’t return. The schedule these next couple of weeks should also help its cause, starting with depleted Chicago coming into town on Tuesday before a date with the awful Suns and a home-and-home with the 76ers. The Heat are working with a deck they never anticipated being dealt, but in the midst of making the best of it. Their first game together produced a 98-81 win over New York, so the addition of Johnson may make the Heat a half-court team prone to unders, further wrestling away control from Dragic, who wants to play faster. Keep an eye on this.
Finally, there’s Atlanta, whose team reached the conference finals for the first time ever last May. After getting swept by the Cavs, watching DeMarre Carroll walk in free agency and starting slow this season, the Hawks were almost broken up at the trade deadline. Jeff Teague was shopped, while Al Horford was available. Both stayed put, but they were on the market could create an uncomfortable atmosphere going forward, especially if there are tough times. The best thing that can happen to the Hawks is an extended winning streak that re-ignites their flame, but they begin a five-game road trip on Tuesday at Golden State that also features games against both L.A. teams, Utah and Toronto. Extending their modest two-game winning streak is going to be dicey since the Hawks figure to be underdogs in four of those five. Atlanta is 0-3 SU and ATS in games it hasn’t been favored in so far in 2016.
Surging
The Wizards hoped they were going to be able to make up ground after the All-Star break due to the league’s lightest schedule, but seeing it come to fruition with wins in six of their first eight (5-3 ATS) is definitely gratifying. They’ll always be winning in spite of head coach Randy Wittman’s presence, but John Wall is playing the best basketball of his career, not to mention more talent on the roster with Markieff Morris on board and Bradley Beal now healthy. They’ll hit the road for five of the next six, including a rematch at Cleveland and contests at every Northwest Division team but Oklahoma City.
The Pistons came out of the break with consecutive losses, but won and covered their final four games of February, a stretch that included victories over the East-leading Cavs and Raptors. Detroit will open March in San Antonio to begin a run of six of seven games on the road, so Stan Van Gundy will have to get a little extra from his young team in order to stay on pace. So far, they’re just 13-18 (13-17-1 ATS) outside of Auburn Hills.
Although it closed out the month with a loss at Atlanta, Charlotte went 8-3 in February and opens March against lightweights Phoenix and Philadelphia. The Hornets will be home for 11 of their first 13 games in the month and have Al Jefferson back as a factor off the bench, so they’re one of the deeper teams in the East despite losing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the season. We’ll see whether the Bees have some killer instinct to them. Charlotte is 19-9 at home, the third-best mark in the Eastern Conference, so this is certainly the time for it to create some separation and cement itself as a playoff team.
Longshots
Orlando, Milwaukee and New York can make things interesting for its respective fan bases if it can run off a few victories in early March, but there’s less pressure on all of these franchises. The Magic cleared cap space to be a player in free agency and have stability in place in the front office and on the coaching staff with Scott Skiles still in his first year. Young talented pieces Victor Oladipo, Nik Vucevic and Aaron Gordon have made great strides over the past few weeks.
The same can be said about the Bucks, a team that saw Jabari Parker score a career-high 36 points while Giannis Antentokoumpo went for 18-17-11 in Monday’s win over the Rockets. Milwaukee is also blessed with one of the longest-tenured GMs in the game in John Hammond, and has Jason Kidd firmly entrenched as head coach.
Phil Jackson will get at least another season to try and turn around the Knicks, faced with a coaching hire to make this offseason if Kurt Rambis doesn’t prove he deserves the job over the next six weeks. Rookie Kristaps Porzingis has appeased disgruntled New York fans with his emergence, but there’s still not enough around Carmelo Anthony to expect a playoff appearance.
Orlando will be on the road for five of its first seven to open the month, while Milwaukee will be home for eight of the next 10. Following Tuesday’s home date against Portland, the Knicks will play at Boston, return home for Detroit and head to the West Coast for over a week, likely ending their chances to qualify for the postseason.
