NCAAB Saturday’s Elite Eight Tips
By Kevin Rogers
West Regional – No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Wisconsin (TBS, 6:05 p.m. EST)
Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Arizona -1 ½, Total: 133 ½
Wisconsin is playing in its second rematch in this March’s tournament, as the Badgers knocked out Oregon in the round of 32 for the second straight season. Now, Bo Ryan’s club hooks up with Arizona for the right to advance to the Final Four once again, facing a Wildcats’ team that looks to avenge a 64-63 overtime setback to Wisconsin nearly a year ago to the day.
In that victory by the Badgers (also played in Southern California at Anaheim’s Honda Center), Wisconsin erased an early eight-point deficit in the first half, while taking a five-point lead with 13 minutes remaining in regulation. The Badgers and Wildcats went back and forth towards the end of regulation as the two teams were tied at 54-54 after 40 minutes. Frank Kaminsky scored six of his game-high 28 points in overtime to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000, while Arizona was denied its first Final Four appearance since 2001.
The Wildcats are riding a 14-game winning streak, as Sean Miller’s squad scratched and clawed past a solid Xavier club in a 68-60 victory in Thursday’s Sweet 16 showdown. Arizona failed to cash as 11 ½-point favorites, as it never came close to covering that heavy number as Xavier trailed by just four points with 5:30 remaining in regulation. The Wildcats knocked down its last 17 free throw attempts, including four in the final minute for the eight-point final margin. Following a 13-2 ATS run from mid-January through the opener of the Pac-12 tournament, UA has compiled a 2-3 ATS record the past five games, while the Wildcats own a 2-5 ATS mark in the past seven NCAA tournament contests.
Wisconsin won its ninth consecutive game in Thursday’s 79-72 victory over North Carolina, barely covering as six-point favorites. The Tar Heels led by four points (60-56) with seven minutes remaining in regulation, but a 9-0 run by the Badgers put them in front for good, while UW converted all eight free throw attempts in the final minute to clinch the cover. Both teams shot exactly 26-of-56 from the floor, as Kaminsky paced the Badgers with a 23-point, 10-rebound effort.
The Badgers are listed as an underdog for the first time this season, while last receiving points in the Final Four last March against Kentucky in a 74-73 loss as one-point ‘dogs. In last season’s matchup against Arizona, Wisconsin closed as 3 ½-point underdogs in the one-point triumph. Following an 0-4 ATS run to close out February, the Badgers have covered five of the previous eight games with three ATS losses coming as favorites of 12 points or more.
Midwest Regional – No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Kentucky (TBS, 8:45 p.m. EST)
Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
Betting Odds: Kentucky -11, Total: 136
John Calipari’s loaded squad put together its most impressive effort of the tournament in Thursday’s 78-39 blowout of West Virginia as 13 ½-point favorites. Kentucky jumped out to an 18-2 advantage, as the Wildcats scored more points in the first half (44) than the Mountaineers did in the entire contest (39), while WVU was limited to a horrid 24% shooting from the floor. UK covered for the first time in three tournament wins, as the ‘Cats improved to 8-2-2 ATS in the past 12 tries as a double-digit favorite.
Notre Dame struggled to put away Northeastern and Butler in its first two tournament victories, failing to cover each time. However, the Irish started hot against Wichita State in Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup and dominated the Shockers in an 81-70 triumph as two-point underdogs to advance to their first Elite Eight since 1978. Notre Dame knocked down 55% of its shots from the floor, as guards Demetrius Jackson and Pat Connaughton combined to shoot 14-of-22 for 36 points.
Following the blowout of Wichita State, Mike Brey’s club improved to 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season, which includes outright victories over North Carolina twice, Duke twice, and Louisville. Since 2010, the Irish has failed to cover seven of the past eight tournament contests, with the lone ATS win coming on Thursday night. Notre Dame has been a solid team to back after scoring at least 80 points, owning a 10-1 SU mark since mid-December.
Kentucky continues to be listed as a heavy favorite, but the Wildcats have been most profitable as a favorite of 13 points or less by putting together a 9-5 ATS record. The ‘Cats took care of business against both ACC foes on its schedule, cruising past North Carolina (84-70) and Louisville (58-50), while covering each time. Over the last two tournaments, UK has covered five of nine games, which includes one push and failing to cash against Hampton as 34-point favorites in the second round.
These teams last met in December 2012 in South Bend as the Irish ripped up the Wildcats, 64-50 as 1 ½-point favorites, the season following Kentucky’s first national title under Calipari. Notre Dame knocked Kentucky out of the NIT in 2009 with a 77-67 victory, as the Irish and Wildcats last met in the NCAA tournament back in 1970.