NCAAB
Saturday, March 18
West Virginia forced only 15 turnovers in 86-80 win over Bucknell Thursday; Bison scored 47 pts in second half- WVU will need to defend better here. Mountaineers won seven of last nine games; they won 66-57 at ACC’s Virginia back on Dec 3. Notre Dame hung on to beat Princeton by point; Irish won in 2nd round last two years, by 1-3 points over Butler/SF Austin. Last three years, favorites are 4-2 vs spread in #4-5 seed second round games. Last two years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU in second round, 9-3 vs spread; West Virginia won four of its last five 2nd round games.
Virginia won five of last six games; they were down 14 in 1st half to UNCW, rallied to win by 5. Cavaliers are 11-1 outside ACC, with one loss to West Va. Florida is 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing by 10/5 to Duke/FSU. Gators shot 59.4% inside arc vs ETSU- Virginia’s defense provides different challenge. Last three years, favorites are 4-2 vs spread in #4-5 seed second round games. Last two years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU in second round, 9-3 vs spread; only loss was Virginia losing 60-54 to Michigan St. two years ago. Florida won its last six second round games (5-1 vs spread) but that was when Donovan was coaching.
Middle Tennessee isn’t a normal 12-seed- over last two years, Blue Raiders are 5-0 vs Big 14/SEC teams, winning by average of 12.6 pts/game. MTSU won its last 11 games; when Minnesota got within 62-58 Thursday, Upshaw took game over, scoring Middle’s next nine points to preserve lead. Butler won five of last seven games; they got to foul line 30 times in fairly easy win over Winthrop in first round. Last three years, 12-seeds are 1-4 vs spread in second round when facing a 4-seed. Butler lost in second round last two years, by 3-8 points.
Since 2003, Gonzaga is 5-7 SU in 2nd round games, but they won in 2nd round last two years, by 19-28 points. Zags struggled for half Thursday, then won by 20- they’re 13-0 outside WCC, with six of those wins vs top 100 teams. Northwestern held off Vandy by 3 Thursday; their subs played total of 29:00- five starters played 31:00+. Last seven years, #1 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in second round games, with five SU losses. Last five years, Big 14 teams are 16-7 SU in second round games. Since 2010, Big 14 teams are 8-6 vs spread as a 2nd round underdog.
Villanova is 13-0 outside Big East this year, with 79-76 win at Purdue of Big 14. Wildcats dozed for a half before winning by 20 over a 16-seed Thursday- they’ve won six games in row, are #20 in country at defending the arc (31.1%). Wisconsin was 13-31 on arc in 84-74 win over Va Tech in 1st round; Koenig was 8-17 on arc by himself. Badgers won four of last five games, are in bottom five in country in terms of tempo of games. Wisconsin is 2-1 vs Big East this year, losing by 12 at Creighton. Last seven years, #1 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in second round games (five SU losses).
Xavier won four of last five games after a 6-game skid jeopardized their season; Musketeers used a freshman PG 39:00 in win over Maryland Thursday- they played three starters 34:00+. Last five years, 11-seeds are 3-5 in this round when playing 3-seeds (2-0 vs 14-seeds). Xavier beat Wake Forest/Clemson this fall, but that was when PG Somner was healthy. Florida State is deep; they went toe-to-toe with FGCU Thursday, getting to line 39 times in 86-80 win. Seminoles are 13-1 outside the ACC, with only loss 89-86 to Temple on a neutral court in November.
Iowa State won nine of last ten games; they’re 9-3 outside Big X, losing by 14 at Iowa in only gams vs Big 14 foe. Cyclones are #6 experience team; they’re #9 in country, making 40.3% on arc for season. Purdue was only up 37-36 at half, beat Vermont by 10 in 1st round, they’re 12-2 outside Big 14. Vermont was 10-27 on arc; if they don’t defend arc vs Iowa State, could be very bad news. Last I’ve years, Big X teams are 10-6 SU in second round games. Last three years, favorites are 4-2 against the spread in #4-5 seed second round games.
Arizona lost 69-62 to Gonzaga on neutral floor in LA in December; now they face St Mary’s, which has only lost four times all year, three times to Gonzaga. Wildcats ran up-and-down in a 100-82, 74-possession win over North Dakota Thursday, when Hawks just went toe-to-toe and got smacked by Arizona. St Mary’s WILL NOT do that; they were 29-39 on foul line in an 85-77 win over an athletic VCU team Thursday. Gaels play slowest games in America; Since ’09, 2-seeds are 15-12 vs spread in second round games. ’09 was last time all four 2-seeds made it to the Sweet 16.
Sunday’s games
Since 2010, Louisville is 4-0 SU/ATS in 2nd round games, winning by 3-26-15-13 points. Cards split their last six games overall; they won 1st round game by 15, even though Jax State made 10-19 on arc. Michigan made 16-29 on arc in 92-91 win over Oklahoma St Friday; they used four starters 38:00+. Wolverines are 11-3 outside Big 14; they lost by 3 at home to Va Tech in only game vs an ACC opponent this season. Louisville beat Michigan 82-76 in national title game four years ago. Last eight years, 2-seeds are 14-12 vs spread when favored in 2nd round.
USC is on roll this week, beating Providence/SMU by total of 5 points; they’ve won 13 games this year in which they trailed by 10+ points at some point in game. Play-in winners who then won their first round game are 3-3 SU in 2nd round games, but two of those wins came vs double-digit seeds after bracket-buster upsets- play-in winners are 2-1 vs spread as a dog in this round. Baylor is 6-6 in its last 12 games after starting season 20-1; Bears are 12-0 outside Big X; they beat Oregon of Pac-12 by 17 in November. Trojans won five of last six games overall.
North Carolina is 13-2 outside ACC this year, losing to Indiana/Kentucky; Tar Heels had easy time Friday- since ’07, UNC is 6-3 vs spread in 2nd round games, losing back/back to Kansas/Iowa St in ’13/’14- they beat Arkansas 87-78 in 2nd round two years ago, forcing 21 turnovers while going 29-37 on foul line. Arkansas won nine of last 11 games; they were only 3-7 on arc vs Seton Hall- they forced turnovers on 20%+ of possessions in last three games. Last seven years, #1 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in second round games, with five SU losses.
Over last six years, 3-seeds are just 6-5 SU vs 11-seeds in 2nd round games. During same time, 3-seeds are 8-8 vs spread as 2nd-round favorites, whether playing 6 or 11-seed. Oregon got almost no resistance from Iona Friday; Ducks beat Arizona St by 1-23 points this year- ASU is coached by Bobby Hurley, brother of URI coach Dan Hurley. Oregon is without its best shot blocker Boucher. Rhode Island won its last nine games; they were 28-31 on foul line Friday; they start two juniors, two seniors. Rams are just 9-4 outside the Atlantic 14 this season.
Extra college basketball games
An 11am NIT game is a bad idea. Ole Miss is 9-4 in its last 13 games; they won at Monmouth Tuesday, are back in the frosty northeast again; Rebels have a tough senior big guy, young perimeter guys; they’re 10-3 outside SEC, losing by 5 at Va Tech of ACC in December. Syracuse is 9-5 outside ACC; they lost by 14 to SEC’s South Carolina in NYC in December. Ole Miss is #2 in country at %age of its points they get at foul line (25.5%).
St Francis won five of last six games; they’re 0-2 vs America East teams, losing to Binghamton by 3, Stony Brook by 12- they’re 4-8 outside NEC but won by hoop at Jacksonville Tuesday, going 11-24 on arc. UMBC likes to play fast (#55 pace); they won by 8 at Mt St Mary’s, team that won the NEC. Retrievers are 10-4 outside America East; they lost five of last eight games.
