BOB VALENTINO
Your comp play for Saturday will be to take the points and Villanova as the # 6 seed (and defending champ!) will take on the # 3 seed in the South Region, the Purdue Boilermakers from the XL Center in Hartford tonight.
Both teams showed resolve in their opening round victories, as the Wildcats held off a game St. Mary's edition, 61-57, while the Boilermakers were 13 point winners over Old Dominion.
I have a feeling this game is going to go back-and-forth and could well be decided by who has the basketball last. Since Villanova is getting +4 points (as I type my analysis) I think the points will work in this spot.
Carsen Edwards did indeed lead the Boilers on Thursday with 26 points, but he put up 23 shots and connected on only 7 of them! That has Edwards at 24-for-89 over Purdue's last 4 games. Edwards has had back issues that obviously could have him altering his shot, and he could well be fatigued too. Whatever the issue, I don't wish to be laying points against this capable 'Nova team.
Villanova continues to got solid senior leadership from Phil Booth who netted 20 points, and Eric Paschall who chipped in with another 14 points. The victory put the 'Cats at 14-1 straight up in the Big Dance since 2016. In other words, Jay Wright's team is not going to be an "easy out" for this Purdue team tonight.
As I look over the numbers for this game, there is just not a whole heck of a lot to separate these teams from one another, as Villanova averages 74.1 points per game, while Purdue scores the rock at 75.7 points per contest. On the defensive end, the Wildcats allow 66.8 to the Boilemakers 66.2 points allowed. Rebounds? 34 for Purdue per game to Villanova's 32.4 per contest. As far as free-throws go, both teams are right near 73%. Three-point percentage is also about the same at 36%, as is
field-goal percentage at 44% from the floor!!!
Again, this one should be tight for the full 40 minutes. I am backing the dog 'Cats in this second round plus the points to stay inside of the number.
4* VILLANOVA