Soccer EPL Best Bets - Week 29
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
With 10 weeks to go in the Barclays Premier League, time is running out for Manchester City to bridge the gap on Chelsea. They are five points behind the Blues, who also have a game in hand against bottom-club Leicester City. Man City will see this weekend as a good opportunity to make up some ground: they travel to relegation-threatened Burnley, while Chelsea face a tricky game at home to Southampton. It’s been a bad week for Jose Mourinho’s men, who were lethargic in their Champions League exit against Paris Saint-Germain. PSG had 10 men for most of the 120 minutes.
Away from the battle at the top, there’s a huge game in the race for the two remaining Champions League places as Manchester United play Spurs. The big game down at the bottom sees Leicester face Hull. If Leicester lose, they can probably be written off for the drop.
Let's handicap Week 29 of the Premier League.
The Banker: Arsenal to beat West Ham United to nil at 13/10
Arsenal have been an easy team to predict for a decade now. They tend to struggle against the big teams and make short work of average teams at home. Their home game against West Ham looks like being one of the latter. West Ham have only lost four away games this season, but they have all been against strong teams.
Arsenal have only dropped points once against a team outside the top six at home all season - a 2-2 draw with Hull City. West Ham have had a very good season, but their strategy away from home is still reasonably defensive. They will have very possession at the Emirates and a quiet win, maybe 2-0, looks very likely.
The Solid Bet: Tottenham Hotspur to win at Manchester United at 10/3
Manchester United’s dreadful performance in the 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal in the FA Cup earlier this week sent alarm bells ringing around Old Trafford. The fact is that United’s performances simply do not merit the fourth position they currently sit in. While they tend to have just enough firepower to dispose of teams in the bottom half at home, they are finding things tougher against the top teams.
Two months ago, the same accusations could be made against Spurs. They were putting in some very poor performances but getting results. Now, with the revelation that is Harry Kane up front, Tottenham suddenly look a very good outfit. They lie just three points behind United in sixth and have the fourth best away record in the division. On current form, they are probably a marginally better team than United.
The Outsider: Newcastle United to win at Everton at 15/4
Everton have clearly underachieved this year and are clearly a better team than position of 14th suggests, but it is still amazing to see them odds on at 5/6 for a game against a team above them in the league. Newcastle are a pretty ordinary side, particularly away from home, but the fact remains that Everton have won just three times at Goodison Park - a ground that was labelled a fortress in the David Moyes era.
What is more, Everton played in the Europa League on Thursday night while Newcastle haven’t played for 11 days. Everton’s record after European fixtures is poor: it reads Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 4. Their game against Dynamo Kiev was a fast-paced, tiring affair which they won 2-1. Newcastle are seven points above Everton in the table, and at 15/4 they just can’t be ignored.
The First Goalscorer: Peter Crouch for Stoke City at West Bromwich Albion at 7/1
Stoke have a fantastic head-to-head record against West Bromwich Albion, and might be a decent bet at 12/5. While it has traditionally been at home where Stoke have been fiercely hard to beat, this year their away record has been they key to another hugely successful year. They are eighth in the league with three wins on the spin.
Peter Crouch is still a massive part of how the Potters play. The 6’7” forward has bagged nine goals this year, but four of them have come in his last six games. He is curiously skilful for such a tall player and could be the man to cement Stoke’s place in the top half.
