STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/1/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 3/1/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Saturday's Notebook
•Cincinnati (-5) beat Connecticut 63-58 at home Feb 6, after trailing by 10 in first half; Bearcats won three of last four series games, losing by 7 in OT in last visit here LY. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-6 versus spread. Cincinnati split last four games, is 4-6-1 versus spread in last 11 games, 2-1 as road underdogs. Huskies won five of last six games, are 3-1-1 as a home favorite. Napier was just 2-12 from arc in first meeting.
•Memphis shot 54.5% inside arc, upset Louisville 73-67 (+10) at KFC Yum Center Jan 9; snapping a 4-game series skid. Cardinals won by 9-9 points in last two visits here. AAC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 3-7 versus spread. Memphis is just 4-3 in last seven games after getting upset at Houston, but they've won last five at home. Louisville won its last seven games, covering five of their last six.
•Colorado outscored Utah 23-10 on foul line, edged Utes 79-75 (-3) at home Feb 1, in game they trailed by 12 early in second half. Buffaloes won five of six versus Utes in Pac-12 play, losing 58-55 here LY. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 22-18 versus spread. Colorado lost four of its last five road games, with all four losses by 12+ points- they're 1-2 as road dogs. Utah won six of last seven at home, is 4-1 as a home favorite.
•Cleveland State (-5.5) beat Valparaiso 69-50 Jan 25, ending 4-game skid in series; Vikings lost last four visits here, by 7-6-6-24 points. Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-17 versus spread. Cleveland State is 9-1 in last ten games overall, covering last six road games; they're 3-1 as road underdogs. Valparaiso won eight of last 11 games, is 2-4 as favorite at home- they covered one of last five, losing last three as a favorite.
•Oklahoma (+6.5) won 88-85 at Texas Jan 4, just its second series win in last nine tries; Sooners were 13-28 from arc in game they trailed by 7 in last 7:55. Texas is 4-3 in last seven visits to Norman, losing by 6 here in LY's visit. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-6 versus spread. Oklahoma is 3-4 in last seven games but won six of last seven at home. Texas lost its last three road games, by 17-9-31 points.
•Western Michigan (+3) ran out to 36-14 lead, beat Toledo 87-76 Jan 8 at home, its 5th win in last six series games. Broncos shot 69.7% inside arc; they've won last eight games overall, covering last five, but needed OT to win at lowly Ball State last game. Toledo split its last four games, is 2-9 versus spread in last 11; they're 7-0 at home in Mid-American Conference, 2-9 versus spread in last 11 games overall. MAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 15-17.
•Syracuse lost two of last three games after starting season 25-0; they've scored 61 or less points in last seven games- seven of its last eight games were decided by 6 or less points. Virginia won its last 12 games, is 13-3 versus spread in ACC play, 6-2 as home favorites. Orange are 5-1-1 against spread on road, 1-0-1 as underdogs. ACC home favorites of less than 5 points are 13-11. Virginia held last six opponents to 58 or less points.
•Creighton (-8) beat Xavier 95-89 at home Jan 12, making 14-28 from arc while Musketeers were 12-26 in game they led by 13 early on. Bluejays won last four games, are 2-5 versus spread in last seven; they're 3-3 as road favorites- four of their five road wins are by 13+ points. Big East home teams are 14-12 versus spread in games where number was 4 or less points. Xavier covered once in its last five games as an underdog.
•Michigan (+2) won 63-60 at Minnesota Jan 2; they've won five in row, nine of last ten games with Gophers, winning three of last four at home, with wins by 12-28-5 points. Wolverines won three of last four games, are 5-2 as home favorites- all six of their home wins are by 8+ points. Big Dozen home favorites of 8+ points are 8-12 versus spread. Minnesota is 1-4 as road dog, 2-5 in games decided by 6 or less points, or in OT.
•Saint Louis (-4) nipped VCU 64-62 at home Jan 15, holding on to win a game they led by 12 with 9:59 left; Rams were just 2-16 from arc. A-13 home favorites of less than 5 points are 13-10 versus spread. Billikens lost last game as 15-point favorite to Duquesne, ending 19-game win streak; they're 0-5 versus spread last five games. VCU is 2-3 in last five games, 3-3 as home favorite, with last three home wins by 11-16-17 points.
•Iowa State (-8) beat Kansas State 81-75 at home Jan 25, making 9-18 on arc; they're 4-1 in last five series games. Cyclones won last four games, are 3-4 on Big X road, 1-1 as road dogs. K-State is 7-0 at home in league, 5-2 versus spread; they've won four of last six games overall. Cyclones split last four visits here, losing by 9 LY. Big X home teams are 4-6 versus spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
•Kansas (-5.5) beat Oklahoma State 80-78 Jan 18, after leading by 19 in first half; Jayhawks won last four games, are 5-2 on Big X road, but 1-3 versus spread in last four games as road favorite. Kansas won last two trips to Stillwater by 1-12 points. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-4-1 versus spread. Cowboys are 2-0 since Smart returned, with both wins by 22 points; they've lost three of last four home games.
•Fresno State was outscored 26-11 on foul line in 68-60 (+14) loss Jan 15 at San Diego State; they're 0-3 versus Aztecs in Mountain West play, losing by 3-22-8 points, but won seven of last eight games overall, covering all eight- they're 2-2 as home underdogs. Mountain West home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-10 versus spread. Aztecs lost last two road games; three of their five road wins are by 7 or less points (3-2 as road favorites).
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 79.9, OPPONENT 53.1.
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 60.5, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- E MICHIGAN is 17-1 (+15.9 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 27.1, OPPONENT 24.9.
-- COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 consecutive conference games this season.
The average score was COLL OF CHARLESTON 26.8, OPPONENT 22.7.
-- JOE SCOTT is 0-10 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was SCOTT 54.8, OPPONENT 64.0.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CLEVELAND ST is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 77.0, OPPONENT 66.4.
-- AIR FORCE is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was AIR FORCE 59.0, OPPONENT 65.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 3-17 (-15.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.0, OPPONENT 31.1.
-- TENNESSEE TECH is 24-2 UNDER (+21.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game since 1997.
The average score was TENNESSEE TECH 31.4, OPPONENT 34.7.
-- STEVE PROHM is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots as the coach of MURRAY ST.
The average score was PROHM 80.3, OPPONENT 73.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - A favorite versus the money line (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - a poor offensive team - scoring <=64 points/game on the season, after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team.
(59-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.5%, +42.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -165.5
The average score in these games was: Team 70.2, Opponent 62.7 (Average point differential = +7.5)
The situation's record this season is: (18-3, +14.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-7, +22.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (117-37, +54.9 units).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (S DAKOTA) - good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games, revenging a close loss versus opponent of 3 points or less, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-47 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.4
The average score in these games was: Team 61.2, Opponent 71.3 (Average point differential = -10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (28.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (113-85).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DARTMOUTH) - an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(77-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.0%, +40.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-101 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.4
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.4 (Average point differential = -9.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 33 (29.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (23-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (50-26).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-98).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (THE CITADEL) - a poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game on the season, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent.
(29-3 since 1997.) (90.6%, +25.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31, Opponent 29 (Average first half point differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
-- Play Against - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (UC-RIVERSIDE) - poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts against a good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 5 or 6 days rest.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.5, Opponent 28 (Average first half point differential = +4.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (93-72).
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Saturday's Match-ups
#523 CINCINNATI @ #524 CONNECTICUT
(TV: Noon EST, ESPN - Line: Connecticut -4.5, Total: N/A) - Connecticut and No. 12 Cincinnati may both feel optimistic about their postseason plans, but it is unlikely either squad is overly confident about its offense. The AAC-leading Bearcats enter Saturday’s road tilt against the Huskies with a full week to recover from their 58-57 loss to Louisville, which allowed the Cardinals to move within a half-game of tying Cincy atop the league standings. The loss was Cincinnati’s second in a row on the road in which it failed to score 60 points.
As the conference’s second-lowest scoring offense, the Bearcats tend to rely on the nation’s fourth-ranked scoring defense – a combination that got them a hard-fought 63-58 win over Connecticut on Feb. 8. The Huskies have won five of six since that setback. Connecticut averaged 81.3 points in the three games following its last loss, but has scored no more than 68 over its next three – a stretch that included a pair of wins over two of the bottom three teams in the AAC in Temple and South Florida.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (24-4 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 13-2 AAC): Second-leading scorer Justin Jackson played only 22 minutes against Louisville after picking up two early fouls. It marked the fourth straight game in which the league’s leading shot blocker was forced to the bench after getting tagged with two first-half fouls. “Nobody was more upset with Justin than Justin. He didn’t leave the arena for an hour and a half (and) it took our entire coaching staff and his parents to console him,” coach Mick Cronin told the Cincinnati Enquirer.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (22-6 SU, 14-12-0 ATS, 10-5 AAC): With seven assists in Wednesday’s 61-56 win over South Florida, Shabazz Napier became the fourth player in school history to record at least 600 for his career. Freshman Terrence Samuel played only eight minutes, but earned the praise of coach Kevin Ollie after he posted three steals during the Huskies’ 18-0 second-half run. “I wanted him to come in and wreak some havoc. (He) gives me somebody I can use in a three-guard set ... and take Shabazz and Ryan (Boatright) off the ball a little bit," Ollie said.
•PREGAME NOTES: The defeat at Louisville marked the first time in 17 games the Bearcats lost a game in which they yielded fewer than 60 points.... Napier leads Connecticut in points (17.8), rebounds (5.9) and assists (5.5) and remains on pace to become the only Husky to ever lead the team in all three categories.... Bearcats G Sean Kilpatrick, who joined Oscar Robertson last Saturday as the only players in school history to amass 2,000 career points, needs one 3-pointer to become the third Cincinnati player to hit 300 in his career.... Connecticut is 1-9 versus the spread after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season.... Cincinnati is 6-15 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 538 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the spread 462 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 597 times, while CINCINNATI won 374 times. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the first half line 561 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 8-3 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 7-5 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 7-4 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--Under is 42-11 in CIN last 53 overall.
--Under is 15-5 in CIN last 20 road games.
--Under is 7-1 in UCONN last 8 overall.
--Under is 10-4 in UCONN last 14 home games.
--UCONN are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
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#539 LOUISVILLE @ #540 MEMPHIS
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Louisville -4.5, Total: N/A) - Memphis is looking at a brutal finish to its regular season and did not do itself any favors with a loss at Houston on Thursday. The 22nd-ranked Tigers will begin a string of three straight against the top three teams in the American Athletic Conference when they host No. 4 Louisville on Saturday. The Cardinals, who have won seven straight, will be looking for some revenge after falling to Memphis at home on Jan. 9.
Louisville lived up to its lofty ranking by blowing out Temple 88-66 at home on Thursday and is tied for the top spot in the AAC with Cincinnati. The Cardinals controlled the tempo against the Owls and shot 53.3 percent from the field while forcing 17 turnovers thanks in part to the backcourt duo of Chris Jones and Russ Smith. Memphis barely scraped by last-place Temple in overtime on Feb. 22 and dropped a 77-68 decision at Houston.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (24-4 SU, 14-12-0 ATS, 13-2 AAC): The Cardinals are not only aiming for the top spot in the AAC but a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The defending champs have come on strong over the last month and have won their last seven games by an average of 21.9 points. Things were not quite as smooth in the first meeting with the Tigers, when Louisville squandered a six-point lead late in the second half and shot 39.1 percent, including a combined 7-of-24 effort from Smith and Jones, in the 73-67 setback.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (21-7 SU, 14-11-0 ATS, 10-5 AAC): All five starters reached double figures in the win over Louisville, with Joe Jackson and Shaq Goodwin leading the way at 15 points apiece. Offense is still coming easily to the Tigers but they are struggling to put teams away because of lapses on the defensive end. Memphis’ five previous games had been decided by six points or fewer before Houston hit eight 3-pointers and built up a 29-10 advantage in free-throw attempts in the loss.
•PREGAME NOTES: Smith has snagged at least two steals in each of the last five games.... Goodwin is shooting 61.1 percent from the field in the last three games and posted a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds at Houston.... The Tigers are 1-4 against the top four teams in the AAC, with the lone win coming over the Cardinals.... Louisville is 22-9 against the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Memphis is 40-14 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 556 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 444 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 682 times, while MEMPHIS won 292 times. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 501 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 499 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 9-5 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 9-6 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 8-7 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis.
--Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Over is 23-11 in LOU last 34 overall.
--Over is 10-3 in LOU last 13 Sat. games.
--MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--Over is 5-2 in MEM last 7 vs. American Athletic Conference.
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#557 ILLINOIS @ #558 MICHIGAN ST
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Michigan State -11, Total: N/A) - As the postseason approaches, No. 18 Michigan State will have all its key players in the lineup when it hosts Illinois on Saturday. Junior swingman Branden Dawson, averaging 10.2 points and a team-best 8.7 rebounds, is the final piece after missing the last nine games with a broken hand. "(Dawson) is going to play with a little bit of a brace on that doesn't seem like it affects a lot of things, but it still is there," coach Tom Izzo told MLive.com. "How much I play him, I have no clue."
The Spartans have played only two of their last 20 games with the best possible starting lineup of senior guard Keith Appling, sophomore guard Gary Harris, senior forward Adreian Payne, sophomore guard Denzel Valentine and Dawson. Appling (13.6 points per game) continues to be bothered by a wrist injury which forced him to miss three games and he scored just nine total points in three contests since his return. The Fighting Illini have won two straight after a 60-49 victory over Nebraska on Wednesday and will be out to avenge a 78-62 loss to the Spartans while trying to stop a six-game slide in East Lansing.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (16-12 SU, 11-12-4 ATS, 5-10 Big Ten): After winning their first two conference games, the Illini lost 10 of their next 11 before the recent hot streak which also includes a 62-49 victory at Minnesota on Feb. 19. Freshman guard Kendrick Nunn (5.7 points per game) has averaged 16 over the last two games and 13 in his last five contests. Junior guard Rayvonte Rice averages a team-best 16 points, but combined to score 16 in the last two games while shooting 4-for-20 from the floor.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (22-6 SU, 15-10-2 ATS, 11-4 Big Ten): Some wonder why Izzo continues to play Appling, but he offered a simple explanation. “Of course his wrist is affecting his shot, but he still drove, he did some things,” Izzo told the Detroit Free Press. “But I’ve got to get guys ready to play down the road, too... I’m gonna keep playing Appling because I’m gonna play guys that are gonna be playing down the stretch.” Payne (16.4 points, 7.7 rebounds per game) averaged 17 points in six games since missing seven because of a foot injury and recorded 12 points and 11 rebounds - his sixth double-double of the season - in a 79-70 loss at No. 16 Michigan on Sunday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Valentine and little-used freshman F Gavin Schilling are the only Spartans to appear in every game this season.... Illinois F-C Nnanna Egwu averages 6.1 rebounds, but 10.5 in his last four games.... The Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 meetings, with all four losses occurring in Champaign.... The Illini are 1-10 versus the spread versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Michigan State is 8-1 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 563 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 408 times. *EDGE against the spread =MICHIGAN ST. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 830 times, while ILLINOIS won 152 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 503 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 497 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ILLINOIS is 18-11 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 18-12 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 19-10 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Fighting Illini are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Fighting Illini are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Michigan St.
--Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Michigan St.
--Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ILL is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 Sat. games.
--ILL is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 21-5 in ILL last 26 road games.
--MSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--MSU is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
--Over is 5-2 in MSU last 7 home games.
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#561 N CAROLINA @ #562 VIRGINIA TECH
(TV: 2:30 PM EST, ACC Network - Line: North Carolina -10.5, Total: N/A) - North Carolina is riding a 10-game winning streak for the first time since February 2009 and the No. 21 Tar Heels will try to keep it going Saturday when they travel to Virginia Tech for an ACC game. The Hokies have lost 13 of their last 14 to fall into last place in the conference standings and come in with a host of injuries. North Carolina likely won’t take a win for granted after getting a scare Wednesday against North Carolina State, rallying from six points down with less than two minutes remaining in overtime to win 85-84.
North Carolina guard Marcus Paige continues to perform on another level, especially after halftime, scoring 31 of his career-high 35 points in the second half and overtime against North Carolina State, including the game-winning layup with four seconds remaining. Paige, a 6-1 sophomore left-hander, scored his season high of 19 points last season against Virginia Tech, which also resulted in an overtime win for the Tar Heels. The North Carolina player who needs to turn things around heading into March is James Michael McAdoo, who is shooting 11-for-36 in the last four games after a two-month stretch in which he carried the Tar Heels.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (21-7 SU, 16-12-0 ATS, 11-4 ACC): The Tar Heels might do some damage in the postseason if they can start hitting on all cylinders. Guard Leslie McDonald has been a prime example, as he scored a season-high 21 points last week against Duke, followed up with 19 points against Wake Forest but then disappeared in a two-point performance against North Carolina State, less than a month after he scored 20 against the Wolfpack. J.P Tokoto might be heating up at the right time, as the 6-5 starting forward has reached double figures in scoring in back-to-back games for the first time since early December.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-18 SU, 10-12-0 ATS, 2-13 ACC): Adam Smith, the second-leading scorer for the Hokies, has missed the last 10 games with a left calf injury, third-leading scorer Ben Emelogu has missed the last two with a left ankle injury and key reserve Cadarian Raines sat out Tuesday’s 18-point loss to Duke with an ankle injury. Raines likely has the best chance of returning against North Carolina and he’d be the player assigned to guard McAdoo, something he struggled with while giving up 22 points in a starting role against the Tar Heels last season. Trevor Thompson, a 6-11 freshman forward, will try to build off his last game, when he matched his season high of 15 points against Duke.
•PREGAME NOTES: Paige has two four-point plays in conference play after the Tar Heels didn’t convert one since the 2007-08 season.... Paige is averaging 35.8 minutes, the most of any player under coach Roy Williams since he came to North Carolina prior to the 2003-04 season.... Williams has 721 wins in his career, three behind former DePaul coach Ray Meyer for 19th on the all-time list.... The Hokies are 2-12 against the spread versus excellent teams - shooting more than 45% with a defense of less than 42% over the last two seasons.... The Tar Heels are 18-9 versus the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 589 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =VIRGINIA TECH. In 1000 simulated games, N CAROLINA won the game straight up 745 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 585 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 382 times. *EDGE against first half line =VIRGINIA TECH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA TECH is 9-5 against the spread versus N CAROLINA since 1997.
--N CAROLINA is 11-3 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA TECH is 9-4 versus the first half line when playing against N CAROLINA since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Tar Heels are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--UNC is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 4-1 in UNC last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 8-1 in VT last 9 Sat. games.
--Under is 10-2 in VT last 12 home games.
--Under is 14-2 in VT last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#567 LSU @ #568 FLORIDA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Florida -11, Total: N/A) - Florida attempts to clinch the SEC regular-season crown and continue the best start in school history when it puts its 20-game winning streak on the line at home against Louisiana State on Saturday. The top-ranked Gators survived another tight one before pulling out a 57-54 win at Vanderbilt on Tuesday, improving to 8-0 on the road in conference play and 13-2 in games decided by single digits. Dorian Finney-Smith scored 19 points - including a decisive 3-pointer in the final minute - for Florida, which also set a school mark for league wins and clinched at least a share of the SEC title for the third time in four seasons.
A win would do wonders for the Tigers' shaky NCAA Tournament chances, but the road has been unkind to them this season. A one-point loss in overtime at Kentucky last Saturday marked LSU's sixth consecutive setback away from home, with its only road win in SEC play coming at 13th-place South Carolina on Jan. 11. The Tigers have won seven straight at home, including a 68-49 triumph over Texas A&M on Wednesday behind 20 points from Jarell Martin.
•ABOUT LOUISIANA STATE (17-10 SU, 8-12-3 ATS, 8-7 SEC): The much-heralded Martin saw his freshman campaign get off to a rough start, as he was hurt in the opening moments of his first game and then missed the next two contests before slowly working his way back. The big man from Baton Rouge has firmly established himself now, reaching the 20-point mark twice in the last three games and playing a career-high 41 minutes in the overtime loss at Kentucky. The Tigers enter the weekend tied with multiple teams for fourth in the conference, which is the last spot afforded the coveted double-bye in the upcoming SEC tournament.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (26-2 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 15-0 SEC): The Gators have been consistently challenged of late, as their last three wins have come by an average of four points and they haven't won any of their last seven contests by more than 10. Their second-half efforts have saved them from any upset, as they have been tied or behind at the half in six straight games before outscoring opponents by an average of 10.3 points after the break - a point not lost on the players who remember the team's 0-6 mark in single-digits games last season. "Humbling to know that we can come from where we were (after) not being able to do it last year and be able to finish out these close games this year," senior forward Patric Young said following the win over Vanderbilt.
•PREGAME NOTES: LSU leads the SEC with 76.8 points per game in league play, while Florida is first in scoring defense (58.4).... Florida leading scorer Casey Prather has produced only nine points on 4-of-15 shooting in the last two games.... The Gators have won five meetings in a row by an average of 15.4 points.... The Tigers are 0-6 against the spread after one or more consecutive unders, and 3-10 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season.... Florida is 22-8 versus the spread after a close win by three points or less since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA covered the spread 524 times, while LSU covered the spread 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 813 times, while LSU won 158 times. In 1000 simulated games, LSU covered the first half line 522 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 478 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 11-9 against the spread versus LSU since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 13-7 straight up against LSU since 1997.
--9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 10-10 versus the first half line when playing against LSU since 1997.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LSU is 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--Over is 11-2 in LSU last 13 overall.
--Over is 11-2 in LSU last 13 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 11-3 in FLA last 14 Sat. games.
--Under is 26-10-1 in FLA last 37 overall.
--Under is 8-2-1 in FLA last 11 home games.
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#579 C FLORIDA @ #580 SMU
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPNews - Line: SMU -15, Total: N/A) - Southern Methodist can move closer to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1993 when the No. 24 Mustangs attempt to complete a regular-season sweep of Central Florida on Saturday. SMU has thrived in its first season in the American Athletic Conference and second season under coaching icon Larry Brown and is well-positioned to end its long tourney drought. The Knights look for an upset, but Wednesday’s win over Rutgers was only their second in 13 games.
The Mustangs have won six of their last seven games and have been off since Sunday, when they beat Connecticut for the second time this season. SMU is no longer just happy to be in NCAA Tournament contention and some of the players are eyeing a deep run and are very much aware the Final Four is in nearby Arlington, Texas. “It’s not about getting to the tournament,” forward Markus Kennedy said. “It’s about getting a good seed and making a run for it. We’ve got the Final Four in our city and it should be a home game for us.”
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (11-15 SU, 5-14-1 ATS, 3-12 AAC): The Knights are 2-2 over the last four contests after a nine-game skid and coach Donnie Jones was highly pleased that his squad was able to overcome a 15-point second-half deficit to knock off Rutgers. “These guys feel like they’ve been competing at a really high level and we’re making a move into this next level,” Jones said afterward. “It’s something that has to be learned. We haven’t had to play this competition night-in and night-out so we’re learning mentally the toughness that’s involved.”
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (22-6 SU, 16-8-0 ATS, 11-4 AAC): Kennedy had 15 points and eight rebounds when the Mustangs posted a 58-46 road win over Central Florida on Jan. 18 but had failed to score in double digits in three of four games before tallying 13 against Connecticut. Kennedy leads the squad by averaging seven boards per game and his 11.7 scoring average is second behind guard Nic Moore (14.2 points, 4.6 assists). Guard Nick Russell contributes nine points per outing and had 15 points against the Huskies.
•PREGAME NOTES: Central Florida holds a 6-4 series lead.... G Isaiah Sykes averages a team-best 16 points but it was F Tristan Spurlock (11.7) who carried the Knights and tied his career best of 23 points in the win over Rutgers.... Kennedy (41), Moore (36) and Russell (31) have combined for more than half of SMU’s 207 steals.... UCF is 5-15 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... The Mustangs are 11-3 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 540 times, while UCF covered the spread 427 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 899 times, while UCF won 85 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the first half line 510 times, while SMU covered the first half line 490 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SMU is 5-5 against the spread versus UCF since 1997.
--UCF is 6-4 straight up against SMU since 1997.
--6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCF is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against SMU since 1997.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCF is 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 Sat. games.
--UCF is 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
--Over is 5-1 in UCF last 6 Saturday games.
--SMU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--SMU is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
--Over is 7-2 in SMU last 9 Sat. games.
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#581 TEXAS @ #582 OKLAHOMA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Oklahoma -3.5, Total: N/A) - The logjam near the top of the Big 12 Conference could clear up - or become tighter - when ranked rivals Texas and host Oklahoma meet Saturday. The No. 23 Longhorns and Iowa State are tied for second place and sit a game ahead of the No. 25 Sooners and Kansas State, which hosts the Cyclones on Saturday. Texas finishes the regular season against the league's bottom two teams - Texas Tech and Texas Christian - while Oklahoma plays sixth-place West Virginia and TCU.
The Sooners double-teamed Kansas' post players on Monday to make it harder to score inside and keep forward Ryan Spangler out of foul trouble, and they'll try the same strategy against Texas' frontcourt. "I thought our big guys at Lawrence fought their tails off," Sooners coach Lon Kruger told The Oklahoman this week. "We've got to have an even greater effort against Texas and try to do an even better job on the boards." Texas is 18-4 when outrebounding its opponent and outscored Baylor 34-18 in the paint in Wednesday's win.
•ABOUT TEXAS (21-7 SU, 13-12-0 ATS, 10-5 Big 12): Forward Jonathan Holmes (13.3 points, 7.4 rebounds) and center Cameron Ridley (11.2, 7.9) both are shooting at least 52 percent from the floor. Guard Javan Felix is averaging 17.6 points over his last five games and is shooting 35.4 percent from 3-point range after hitting 7-of-9 long shots against Baylor. Guard Isaiah Taylor is averaging 17 points, 5.1 assists and four rebounds during his last seven contests for Texas, which has won seven of its last nine meetings with Oklahoma.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (20-8 SU, 15-10-1 ATS, 9-6 Big 12): Guard Buddy Hield leads all Sooner starters in double figures with 16.7 points. Forward Cameron Clark, who has scored in double digits in four of the last five games, adds 15.3 points. Guards Jordan Woodard (10.9) and Isaiah Cousins (10.4) and Spangler (10.3 points on 59.9 percent shooting and a team-high 9.6 rebounds) round out the balanced scoring.
•PREGAME NOTES: Woodard broke the school's record for made free throws by a freshman (135) and needs 23 assists to eclipse the freshman mark of 154 set by Tommy Mason-Griffin in 2009-10).... Texas is 17-0 when its opponents shoot under 40 percent.... Oklahoma is averaging 82.8 points, the first time it has been over 80 since coach Kelvin Sampson's first season in 1994-95.... The Longhorns are 3-12 versus the spread in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Sooners are 13-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the spread 591 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 409 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA won the game straight up 675 times, while TEXAS won 294 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 540 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 415 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 21-19 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA since 1997.
--TEXAS is 21-19 straight up against OKLAHOMA since 1997.
--19 of 34 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 23-16 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--21 of 34 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Longhorns are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Under is 4-1 in TEX last 5 road games.
--Over is 10-4 in TEX last 14 Sat. games.
--OKLA is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Sat. games.
--Over is 25-12 in OKLA last 37 overall.
--Over is 21-7 in OKLA last 28 home games.
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#585 SYRACUSE @ #586 VIRGINIA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Virginia -3.5, Total: N/A) - While Syracuse has garnered much of the attention in the ACC this season, it's Virginia that has a chance to clinch the league title when it hosts the Orange on Saturday. The 11th-ranked Cavaliers, winners of 12 straight games, have not secured an outright league crown since 1980-81. The fifth-ranked Orange trail the Cavaliers by 1 1/2 games for first place and control their own destiny should they win their final three contests, beginning with Saturday's showdown in Charlottesville.
"I think it's very important," Virginia coach Tony Bennett said of the possibility of winning the league crown. Of course, an ACC title also would mean a lot to Syracuse, which has lost two of its last five games - with the three wins coming by a total of five points - but still remains in contention for its first league crown since winning the Big East in 2011-12. "It's important to me," said Orange forward C.J. Fair. "Because it's our first year in the ACC, we got off to a good start, and this is my last year. You want to get as many championships as possible."
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (26-2 SU, 13-9-2 ATS, 13-2 ACC): Following back-to-back losses, Syracuse edged Maryland by two points on Monday as the team's offensive struggles continued. The Orange entered Thursday's action ranked 243rd in the nation in scoring (68.8) and have not surpassed 61 points in any of their last seven games. Tyler Ennis broke out a shooting slump with 20 points on 9-of-18 shooting against Maryland, but backcourt mate Trevor Cooney is shooting just 25 percent from the field and 5-of-25 from 3-point range over his last four games.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (24-5 SU, 15-9-1 ATS, 15-1 ACC): Virginia also is not a dynamic offensive team, averaging 65.9 points to place 294th nationally, but Bennett's team has won its last two games by a combined 46 points. The Cavs have allowed increasingly fewer points in each of their last four games, yielding 58, 53, 49 and then 40 in a 25-point win over Miami (Fla.) on Wednesday. London Perrantes was 5-of-5 from the field - 4-of-4 from 3-point range - against the Hurricanes and has not missed a shot from the field (7-of-7), 3-point arc (5-of-5) or foul line (1-of-1) over the last two games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia only averages 10 turnovers per game, with no one on the team committing more than 1.5.... Fair played 35 minutes against Maryland after logging at least 38 in 12 straight games.... Syracuse F Jerami Grant missed the second half against the Terrapins due to a back injury but said "I'll be fine to play this weekend".... The Cavaliers are 10-1 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.... The Orange are 9-1 against the spread versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA covered the spread 520 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 612 times, while SYRACUSE won 363 times. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA covered the first half line 485 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 2-0 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SYR is 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 Sat. games.
--Under is 18-6-2 in SYR last 26 overall.
--Under is 19-7 in SYR last 26 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--UVA is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--UVA is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Sat. games.
--UVA is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
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#595 CREIGHTON @ #596 XAVIER
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -3, Total: N/A) - Doug McDermott continues his run up the record books and No. 10 Creighton can move closer to the Big East regular season title when the Bluejays visit Xavier on Saturday. McDermott is up to 10th place on the all-time scoring list with 2,917 points and former Kansas star Danny Manning (2,951) is the next legend he can pass. Xavier is just 4-5 over its last nine games but boasts an impressive 14-1 home record.
The Musketeers appeared to be a certain NCAA Tournament squad before the recent bumps and can solidify themselves with a huge upset of the Bluejays. McDermott scored 35 points when Creighton notched a 95-89 home win over Xavier on Jan. 12 and has nine outings of 30 or more points while leading the nation at 26 points per game. The Bluejays are tied for the conference lead with Villanova but hold the edge for claiming the top seed in the Big East postseason tournament due to two regular-season wins over the Wildcats.
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (23-4 SU, 15-10-0 ATS, 13-2 Big East): McDermott has scored 25 or more points in seven consecutive games and has failed to reach 20 points just once in the last 12 contests. Three-point bomber Ethan Wragge averages 11.3 points per game and has just a pair of two-point baskets all season while knocking down 91 from behind the arc. Guard Jahenns Manigat has made 49 3-pointers this season and is five away from 200 for his career for a team averaging 10.3 3-pointers per game.
•ABOUT XAVIER (19-9 SU, 16-10-0 ATS, 9-6 Big East): Freshman post player Jalen Reynolds showed off his potential with 17 points and 16 rebounds in Tuesday’s 65-53 victory over St. John’s. Reynolds hadn't scored in double digits since late November before the breakout game and his effort was timely as starting center Matt Stainbrook (11.1 points, 8.1) played just 16 minutes before fouling out. Guard Semaj Christon averages a team-best 16.5 points and forward Justin Martin (11.1) also scores in double digits.
•PREGAME NOTES: Xavier leads the series 9-7 despite the loss to the Bluejays on Jan. 12.... Musketeers PG Dee Davis is averaging seven assists over the last five games to raise his season mark to 5.1.... PG Austin Chatman had five assists in Creighton’s 72-71 win over Seton Hall last Sunday to move into 10th place in school history with 334 assists.... Xavier is 7-0 against the spread in home games versus excellent teams - shooting more than 45% with a defense of less than 42% over the last two seasons.... The Bluejays are 44-25 versus the spread in road games versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 559 times, while XAVIER covered the spread 410 times. *EDGE against the spread =CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 647 times, while XAVIER won 327 times. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 542 times, while XAVIER covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--XAVIER is 4-4 against the spread versus CREIGHTON since 1997.
--XAVIER is 4-4 straight up against CREIGHTON since 1997.
--5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--XAVIER is 5-2 versus the first half line when playing against CREIGHTON since 1997.
--5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-2 in CRE last 8 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in CRE last 8 vs. Big East.
--Under is 14-6 in CRE last 20 road games.
--XAV is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--Under is 6-2 in XAV last 8 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in XAV last 8 vs. Big East.
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#599 MINNESOTA @ #600 MICHIGAN
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Michigan -9, Total: N/A) - Michigan got a big scare at Purdue on Wednesday but pulled through in overtime to maintain its lead in the Big Ten. Minnesota will try to knock the 16th-ranked Wolverines from that perch when it visits Michigan on Saturday. The Wolverines did not take a lead at Purdue until the first basket of overtime and needed a buzzer-beater from Glenn Robinson III to win for the third time in four games.
The Golden Gophers need a strong finish to the regular season and probably a good showing in the Big Ten tournament to secure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament and began that process with a 95-89 win over Iowa on Tuesday. Minnesota had failed to reach 50 points in either of its two previous games and had been held to 70 or fewer in five straight before exploding against the Hawkeyes. Michigan scratched its way to a 63-60 road win over the Gophers in the Big Ten opener on Jan. 2.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (18-11 SU, 11-13-1 ATS, 7-9 Big Ten): The Gophers have posted quality home wins over the likes of Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin but could very much use a road win over a ranked opponent to impress the selection committee. Austin Hollins put up a career-high 27 points in the win on Tuesday as Minnesota shot 61.2 percent from the field to post its highest non-overtime point total in a conference game since 1995. “I hit a couple of shots early on, and I was just really feeling it,” Hollins told reporters. “I had a few open looks and I was taken over with confidence. When you hit a few shots and they’re going in, you feel like it’s going in from anywhere.”
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (20-7 SU, 13-11-1 ATS, 12-3 Big Ten): The Wolverines are a game ahead of Michigan State with three left to play and own the head-to-head tiebreaker between the schools. Michigan will play two of its remaining three at home and could use more performances like Wednesday from Robinson, who scored 14 of his 17 points in the second half and overtime and is developing some consistency with three straight games in double figures after scoring 10 or more points once in the previous six contests. Robinson blocked four shots in the first meeting with Minnesota but was held to six points on 2-of-5 shooting in 20 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan ranks in the top 10 nationally in lowest turnover average.... Golden Gophers G DeAndre Mathieu is averaging 18.5 points on 14-of-21 shooting in the last two wins.... Wolverines G Nik Stauskas is averaging 20 points and four assists in the last two games.... Minnesota is 14-5 versus the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Michigan is 25-9 against the spread in home games after a win by 6 points or less, including 15-3 ATS in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 540 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 428 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 793 times, while MINNESOTA won 189 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 484 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN is 16-15 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 19-12 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 17-11 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Gophers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Michigan.
--Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MINN is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.
--MINN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 55-27-1 in MINN last 83 Sat. games.
--MICH is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Sat. games.
--MICH is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Over is 23-6-1 in MICH last 30 Sat. games.
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#601 ST LOUIS @ #602 VA COMMONWEALTH
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: VCU -4.5, Total: N/A) - Saint Louis will try for a second time to clinch at least a share of the Atlantic 10 regular-season title when it visits Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday. The eighth-ranked Billikens' school-record 19-game winning streak came to a stunning end with Thursday's 71-64 loss at home against Duquesne, the league's 10th-place team. The top defense in the conference permitted 46 second-half points in losing for the first time since Dec. 1 against unbeaten Wichita State, and Saint Louis will have to wait at least one more game to secure the top seed in the league tournament in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Clinching any of those items Saturday will be a challenge against a Rams squad that took the Billikens to the wire in a 64-62 loss at Saint Louis on Feb. 15. That loss, and a setback at Massachusetts six days later, just about dropped Virginia Commonwealth from league title contention - but an 85-66 victory at last-place Fordham on Thursday helped to steady the ship. Juvonte Reddic had 22 points and 12 rebounds to lead the way for Shaka Smart's crew, which is 13-0 at home and could go a long way toward securing an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament with a win Saturday.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (25-3 SU, 9-16-0 ATS, 12-1 A-10): Senior guard Mike McCall Jr. is no stranger to being in the middle of things for the Billikens, but he has been more of a catalyst of late, averaging 13.5 points - four more than his season mark - while hitting 8-of-17 3-pointers over his last four games. McCall scored 12 points, including a tie-breaking jumper in the closing moments that gave the Billikens the lead for good against Virginia Commonwealth, and made a steal with just over a minute left to help keep his team ahead. McCall also led Saint Louis with 18 points - one shy of a career high - in the loss to Duquesne.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (21-7 SU, 13-13-0 ATS, 9-4 A-10): The Rams have showcased one strength in particular in league play, that being their ability to pound the offensive glass. They entered Friday ranked ninth in the nation with 14.4 offensive rebounds per game, which goes up to 15.5 in A-10 action and soared to 24 against Fordham, leading to 24 second-chance points. Reddic, who has scored in double figures in 10 straight games, leads the conference with 60 boards on the offensive end.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Billikens are 10-0 on the road and are one of two teams in the country (Wichita State) without a loss away from home.... Rams G Treveon Graham, who leads his team in scoring in league play, is 2-for-15 from beyond the arc in his last three games.... Saint Louis F Dwayne Evans had 21 points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots in the previous meeting.... The Rams are 7-0 versus the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Billikens are 18-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 558 times, while VA COMMONWEALTH covered the spread 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VA COMMONWEALTH won the game straight up 551 times, while SAINT LOUIS won 422 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 574 times, while VA COMMONWEALTH covered the first half line 426 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAINT LOUIS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VA COMMONWEALTH is 3-2 against the spread versus SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 3-2 straight up against VA COMMONWEALTH since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against VA COMMONWEALTH since 1997.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SLU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
--Under is 22-8 in SLU last 30 overall.
--Under is 8-2 in SLU last 10 road games.
--VCU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 8-3 in VCU last 11 Sat. games.
--Under is 12-4 in VCU last 16 home games.
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#609 KENTUCKY @ #610 S CAROLINA
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -9, Total: N/A) - Preseason hype pinpointed No. 15 Kentucky as a team that could possibly go undefeated this season – a notion that has proved more folly than those who perpetuated it in the first place. The freshmen-dominated Wildcats have split their last four games and are saddled with seven losses entering Saturday’s SEC contest at South Carolina. Kentucky fell in overtime to Arkansas on Thursday, its second loss of the season to the Razorbacks.
Coach John Calipari was severely disappointed after the 71-67 defeat, a contest in which his squad shot 34.2 percent from the field – including 3-of-11 from 3-point range – and 54.5 percent from the free-throw line. “We took a step back,” Calipari said of his team's 18-turnover performance. “Great lesson. Had our chances to win.” The Gamecocks have lost three straight games and 12 of their last 15 and are tied with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (21-7 SU, 12-12-2 ATS, 11-4 SEC): Backup center Willie Cauley-Stein was the only player to shoot well in the loss to Arkansas, going 8-of-12 from the field while scoring 16 points and matching his career high of 13 rebounds. Forward Julius Randle posted his 15th double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 boards but the freshman was just 6-of-15 from the field and missed three of his five free throws. Randle has team-best averages of 15.7 points and 10.3 rebounds, while guard James Young averages 14.4 points and has made a team-high 60 3-pointers.
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (10-18 SU, 13-10-2 ATS, 3-12 SEC): Guard Brenton Williams has been a bright spot in the dismal season as he scored 26 points in the loss to Auburn to raise his team-best scoring average to 14.7. Williams has missed just four free throws all season – shooting 95.6 percent – and has made 77 3-point baskets while scoring 20 or more points on six occasions. Guard Sindarius Thornwell averages 13.5 points and will be striving to bounce back from scoring just four points on 2-of-13 against Auburn.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kentucky is 9-1 against the Gamecocks during Calipari’s tenure.... Young has scored in double digits in 10 of the last 11 games.... Five of South Carolina’s SEC defeats have been by 16 or more points.... The Wildcats are 16-26 against the spread when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.... The Gamecocks are 15-35 versus the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the spread 515 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 729 times, while S CAROLINA won 249 times. In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the first half line 538 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 418 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 20-16 against the spread versus S CAROLINA since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 30-6 straight up against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--19 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 22-14 versus the first half line when playing against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--16 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in South Carolina.
--Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
--Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in South Carolina.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Sat. games.
--UK is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--Under is 5-2-1 in UK last 8 Sat. games.
--SCAR is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in Gamecocks last 4 Saturday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Gamecocks last 6 vs. Southeastern.
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#631 IOWA ST @ #632 KANSAS ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Kansas State -1.5, Total: N/A) - Iowa State and Kansas State are two of the five Big 12 schools that won’t be sweating out Selection Sunday, but only one of these teams will bolster its NCAA resume Saturday when the No. 17 Cyclones host the Wildcats. Iowa State has won four consecutive games and is tied for second place in the Big 12 while Kansas State is tied for fourth and one victory away from the school’s eighth consecutive 20-win campaign. The Wildcats are a stout 14-1 at home.
Kansas State defeated Texas Tech on Tuesday to give coach Bruce Weber the best two-year start in school history with 46 victories, surpassing Lon Kruger’s mark of 45 in 1986-87 and 1987-88. Iowa State rolled to an 83-66 victory over West Virginia on Wednesday and its next victory will match last season’s total of 23. Coach Fred Hoiberg has turned around the fortunes of a program that will be making its third straight NCAA appearance after missing it in each of the previous six campaigns.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (22-5 SU, 12-13-0 ATS, 10-5 Big 12): The Cyclones average 83.6 points per game and are the only team in the nation to score 70 or more in each game. Forward Melvin Ejim averages 18.4 points and 8.3 rebounds while forward Georges Niang (16.8) has scored in double digits in 13 straight games, including a 24-point effort against Texas Tech. DeAndre Kane (16.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists) is one of the nation’s best all-around point guards and center Dustin Hogue contributes 10.8 points and a team-best 8.5 rebounds.
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (19-9 SU, 15-10-1 ATS, 8-6 Big 12): The Wildcats have relied on defense all season – they allow 63.8 points per game – and have limited 14 opponents to 60 or fewer points. Freshman guard Marcus Foster (team-best 15.3 average, 42 percent shooting) has overcome early-season shooting struggles to average 20.9 points and shoot 50 percent from the field over his last seven games. Big man Thomas Gipson (11.7 points, 6.2 rebounds) is the squad’s top inside player while guard Shane Southwell (9.8 points) battles consistency issues and is shooting just 27.5 percent from 3-point range.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas State holds a 135-81 series lead, but the Cyclones defeated the Wildcats 81-75 on Jan. 25 for their fifth win in nine meetings during Hoiberg’s tenure.... Wildcats G Will Spradling (1,001) scored 10 points against Texas Tech to become the 25th player in school history to reach 1,000 in his career.... Cyclones G Monte Morris had 12 assists against West Virginia, the most by a freshman in Iowa State history.... The Wildcats are 6-0 versus the spread in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.... Iowa State is 3-10 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 573 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 427 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 526 times, while KANSAS ST won 454 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 571 times, while KANSAS ST covered the first half line 394 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 17-16 against the spread versus KANSAS ST since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 18-16 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 19-15 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS ST since 1997.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Cyclones are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Over is 22-8 in ISU last 30 vs. Big 12.
--KSU is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--Over is 7-1 in KSU last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 16-5 in KSU last 21 home games.
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#639 MISSOURI ST @ #640 WICHITA ST
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Wichita State -17.5, Total: N/A) - Second-ranked Wichita State already has enjoyed an historic campaign and looks to complete an undefeated regular season when it hosts Missouri State on Saturday. “To be the first and only team in college basketball to win 30 without a loss in the regular season,” Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall said after Tuesday's 20-point win over Bradley. “I realize we’re playing more games ... but it has never happened in the regular season. So it’s a first. And these guys like to be the first, and the best.” The Shockers are aiming to become the first team to complete its regular season undefeated since Saint Joseph's (27-0) in 2003-04.
Coming off a berth in the Final Four, the Shockers are the lone remaining undefeated team in the country and have won each of their last five games by double digits as they continue to earn the respect of the college basketball world. "They've had an unbelievable year, and I personally believe they deserve a one-seed if they run the table," Kansas coach Bill Self said earlier this week. Perhaps the toughest game for Wichita State this season was the first matchup with Missouri State - a 72-69 overtime squeaker back on Jan. 11.
•ABOUT MISSOURI STATE (19-10 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 9-8 MVC): The Bears are hoping to be the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, but they'll likely need to beat the Shockers to do so. Missouri State seeks its third straight win - a streak that it hasn't reached since Dec. 21 to Jan. 2 - and hopes to close better than it did in the first meeting between the teams. The Bears led that one by 18 points at halftime but came up short despite Austin Ruder's 17 points on 5-of-8 3-point shooting.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (30-0 SU, 20-6-1 ATS, 17-0 MVC): Cleanthony Early (15.7 points) is just 4-of-14 over the last two games and has not reached 20 points in any of his last eight contests. On the other hand, Fred VanVleet's last three games have featured an average of 16 points and 5.3 rebounds with 16 assists against only two turnovers. The Shockers, just the 11th team in NCAA history to reach 30-0, have also received a recent lift from reserve forward Darius Carter (37 points on 14-of-19 shooting over his last three games).
•PREGAME NOTES: Missouri State F Jarmar Gulley had 15 points and 14 rebounds in the first meeting but has struggled (7-of-20) over the last two games.... Wichita State's top three scorers all shoot at least 83.5 percent from the foul line.... Shockers G Tekele Cotton has shot 13-of-19 over his last two games, averaging 17 points, 4.5 rebounds, four steals and two assists during that stretch.... Missouri State is 26-11 against the spread against conference opponents over the last two seasons.... Wichita State is 17-6 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI ST covered the spread 531 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 469 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 907 times, while MISSOURI ST won 85 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI ST covered the first half line 569 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 387 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSOURI ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WICHITA ST is 22-16 against the spread versus MISSOURI ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 25-14 straight up against MISSOURI ST since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MISSOURI ST is 21-17 versus the first half line when playing against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Bears are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Wichita St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MOSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Missouri Valley.
--Over is 23-11-2 in MOSU last 36 Sat. games.
--Under is 6-1 in MOSU last 7 vs. Missouri Valley.
--WICH is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Missouri Valley.
--WICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 22-9 in WICH last 31 home games.
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#653 KANSAS @ #654 OKLAHOMA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kansas -1.5, Total: N/A) - With a share of its tenth straight Big 12 championship locked up, No. 6 Kansas can focus on finishing the regular season in strong fashion beginning Saturday at Oklahoma State. Not only is the Jayhawks' run the longest division or conference winning streak in all of sports, it's tied for the third longest in college basketball history; by comparison, no other current streak runs longer than three years. "We've had so many good players. It's been a good run," coach Bill Self, who has been at the helm for all 10 titles, told the media.
The Cowboys looked like they were on their way to a special year after going 12-1 in non-conference play, but the Big 12 has not been kind to them. The return of Marcus Smart for back-to-back wins over Texas Tech and Texas Christian has helped to bury the memory of seven straight losses - as would a win over the Jayhawks, who posted a 80-78 win at home in the first meeting. Smart had 17 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in his second game since returning from a three-game suspension for shoving a fan.
•ABOUT KANSAS (22-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS, 13-2 Big 12): What makes the conference title even more special is the fact that the Jayhawks did it with no returning starters for the third such time during the streak. Instead, they rely on four players who score in double figures, including freshmen Andrew Wiggins (16.3), Joel Embiid (11.1 and 7.9 rebounds) and Wayne Selden, Jr. (10.3). Self was quick to point out that there is still a lot of season left. "It was a little anti-climatic because we still have three games left," he told reporters. "We want to go in and win in Stillwater."
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (18-10 SU, 10-13-1 ATS, 6-9 Big 12): Smart wore the No. 43 jersey with no name on the back against TCU rather than his customary No. 33 because the equipment crew forget to pack his regular jersey. He missed his first five shots and was 1-of-12 at one point before finishing 6-of-17 in a game played not far from his high school in Flower Mound, where he won a pair of state championships. "I just tried to block everything out," he told the media after receiving plenty of heckling from fans. "Like Coach (Travis Ford) always tells me, lose myself in the game. And that's kind of what I tried to do today."
•PREGAME NOTES: The Jayhawks have won six of nine Big 12 tournament titles during the streak.... Oklahoma State trails the series 107-54, including losses in the last two games in Stillwater.... Kansas has recorded at least 22 wins in each of the last 25 seasons.... OSU is 2-13 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, and 1-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 582 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 418 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 531 times, while KANSAS won 442 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 557 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 400 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA ST is 14-10 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-7 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 12-11 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 9-3 in KU last 12 overall.
--Over is 9-1 in KU last 10 Sat. games.
--OKST is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
--OKST is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 15-6 in OKST last 21 Sat. games.
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#665 SAN DIEGO ST @ #666 FRESNO ST
(TV: 10:05 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: San Diego State -4, Total: N/A) - San Diego State looks to extend its 40-game win streak against teams from the state of California on Saturday when the 13th-ranked Aztecs visit upset-minded Fresno State. Picked to finish eighth in the Mountain West preseason media poll, the surprising Bulldogs have won seven of their last eight games to move one-half game back of sixth-place Nevada. Fresno State is coming off one of its best efforts in three seasons under coach Rodney Terry after building a 21-point halftime lead and cruising to a 76-56 win over Boise State on Wednesday.
The Aztecs bounced back from a 14-point loss at New Mexico last Saturday by routing San Jose State on Tuesday, but they’re eager for leading scorer Xavier Thames to break out of an extended shooting slump. Thames remains in contention for Mountain West player of the year honors, but he’s averaging just nine points on 21.4 percent shooting over his last five games. Fortunately for the Aztecs, their league-leading defense makes them a dangerous opponent even when their offense lags behind.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (24-3 SU, 14-10-0 ATS, 13-2 Mountain West): Thames scored 28 points in a 68-60 win over Fresno State on Jan. 15 after the Aztecs trailed by as many as eight in the first half. The Aztecs’ dynamic front line is led by forwards Winston Shepard (averaging 12.4 points and 5.3 rebounds) and Josh Davis (team-high 10.2 rebounds), who has at least 10 boards in 14 of his last 20 games. Forward Dwayne Polee II has become a key part of the team’s rotation during league play, and he’s averaging 9.4 points and 4.2 rebounds over his last five games.
•ABOUT FRESNO STATE (15-14 SU, 16-10-1 ATS, 8-8 Mountain West): The Bulldogs suffer from a lack of true post players, but their backcourt of Cezar Guerrero, Marvelle Harris and Tyler Johnson has led the team’s resurgence following a 1-7 start in league play. Harris was 9-of-11 shooting for 26 points against Boise State, and Johnson is averaging a team-high 16.5 points along with 7.5 rebounds. Johnson had 24 points and 11 boards last month against San Diego State, while Guerrero and Harris were held to a combined 20 points on 6-of-23 shooting.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Diego State leads the all-time series 57-45, including seven straight wins.... Thames has not committed a turnover in the Aztecs’ past five games, a span of 185 consecutive minutes.... Fresno State is 8-40 when trailing at halftime under Terry.... San Diego State is 12-4 versus the spread after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.... The Bulldogs are 10-3 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FRESNO ST covered the spread 512 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 581 times, while FRESNO ST won 387 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 476 times, while FRESNO ST covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 8-3 against the spread versus FRESNO ST since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 7-6 straight up against FRESNO ST since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FRESNO ST is 6-6 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Aztecs are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SDSU is 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.
--Under is 20-6 in SDSU last 26 overall.
--Under is 15-5 in SDSU last 20 vs. Mountain West.
--FRES is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--FRES is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--Over is 5-0 in FRES last 5 Saturday games.
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