At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
In February, we usually are just starting to get Kentucky Derby fever, and we do have a couple of Derby preps on tap this afternoon, but the buzz surrounds “The Rematch.”
Horse of the Year California Chrome takes on 2013 juvenile Eclipse winner Shared Belief in the $500,000 San Antonio (G2), a rare early season battle between two of the top horses in the handicap division.
They were third and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) last fall, a controversial race won by Bayern, who would have also been in the field except for foot issues.
The duo bounced out of the Classic to win their next starts in a somewhat unconventional manner. California Chrome added a fourth Grade 1 race by winning the Hollywood Derby in his career debut on turf, while Shared Belief cut back to seven furlongs to win the Malibu (G1).
The race kicks off the Jockey Club Tour on Fox. The two-hour telecast gets underway at 5:30 ET on Fox Sports 1. The telecast will also feature $500,000 Donn Handicap (G1) and $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1) from Gulfstream Park, and the $200,000 San Marcos Stakes (G2) from Santa Anita Park.
The Derby points races today are the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct and the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.
Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:45 ET)
3 Sharp Quality 3-1
2 American Progress 7-2
1 Island Therapy 5-1
7 Lookingoutforyou 5-2
Analysis: Sharp Quality set the early fractions while down along a dead rail and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish against $50,000 non-winners of three last out. Note this starter allowance race is nor non-winners of two. The filly owns solid early and mid pace numbers and may prove tough to catch if she can shake loose early. She takes on the boys but looks capable.
American Progress dueled for the early lead and tired to finish seventh last out against $35,000 non-winners of two. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the RRod barn that is 31% winners first off the claim. I like the barn switch here going from the low % O'Brien to RRod. He owns back numbers good enough to win here.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Withers G3 (4:13 ET)
3 March 6-1
7 El Kabeir 8-5
1 Classy Class 2-1
2 Far From Over 5-1
Analysis: March looks the most promising among the six here trying to pull off the upset over the imposing favorite El Kabeir. The Chad Brown trainee was a good second in his debut going 6 ½ furlongs and then broke his maiden on the stretch out two turns in his second career outing. The effort was flattered when the runner up Dontbetwithbruno returned to graduate in his next outing. The $320,000 Keeneland purchase is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame out of an Unbridled’s Song mare that has dropped five other winners including Eightfiveinafifty ($168,514) who won the 2010 Bay Shore (G3). The colt has come back with two solid looking works and we should catch a fair price.
El Kabeir was a good-looking winner in the Jerome (G3) last out in his first start on the inner track. He leads the Derby points standings with 21 and a win here would pretty much guarantee his spot in the starting gate in Louisville. The colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) two back in gate to wire fashion and showed a new dimension last out in the Jerome by sitting off the pace in the early going. He owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in early and mid pace numbers. He looks real tough here but his price is going to be south of his 8-5 morning line.
Classy Class pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth in the Remsen (G2) last out at nine furlongs in his first start against winners. He broke his maiden two back going 6 ½ furlongs in a sharp effort. The $250,000 Ocala purchase should be tighter and has plenty of pedigree to handle two turns. He looks as if he still has a ton of upside and is in good hands with the McLaughlin barn.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 3,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 13 The Donn Handicap G1 (5:50 ET)
8 Protonico 6-1
1 Constitution 7-2
4 Lea 9-5
2 Commissioner 4-1
Analysis: Protonico is one of three in here sent out by the Todd Pletcher barn and likely is going to offer the best value among the trio. The colt makes his first start since a solid effort in a runner up finish to Hoppertunity in the Clark Handicap (G1) last November at Churchill Downs. The winner came back to win the San Pasqual (G3) in his next outing and is looking to be the upsetter in today's San Antonio (G2) later at Santa Anita. Our top picks coming off back-to-back career tops, winning the Discovery Handicap (G3) two back. His only really bad race last year was at Parx, and his form looks really good if we toss that effort over the speed friendly racing strip.
Constitution set the pace in the Clark and weakened to finish third. 1 1/4 lengths back of our top pick. Since winning the Florida Derby (G1) last spring here this guy has only made two starts and he looks capable of moving forward off his Clark effort.
Lea is the defending champion and was sick after winning this race last year and did not reappear until the Hal's Hope (G3) on Jan. 1`0 where he won off the bench in a sharp effort. He is perfect in three trips over the main track here with the main knock being the light price.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,4,8,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 5 The Robert B. Lewis G3 (2:30 PT)
5 Firing Line 3-1
6 Dortmund 3-1
1 Tizcano 3-1
2 Rock Shandy 3-1
Analysis: Firing Line battled with heavy favorite Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) right to the wire last out and came up just a neck short and may have won if Mr. Z had not bumped him a couple of times in the stretch. The colt was making his takes debut after breaking his maiden going 6 1/2 on poly at Del Mar in his second career outing. The $240,000 Keeneland purchase gets five pond today from his main rival and should have the jump on him as they turn for home.
Dortmund became an early Derby buzz horse for the Baffert barn after a 7 3/4 length win against Alw-1 optional claimers in his second career start. He was sent off as the chalk in the Los Alamitos Futurity and most thought he would win for fun. He had to battle with our top pick but prevailed late to win by a neck to stay undefeated. The colt has worked quickly since his last outing and is the logical one to beat here but his price is going to be on the short side.
Tizcano came up short last out in a fifth place finish in the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream Park going six furlongs. The winner Barbados came back to win the Hutcheson (G3) in his next start on Jan. 24 at Gulfstream Park. The colt finally gets to go long and he has the pedigree to handle the extra ground. The $710,000 purchase is by Tiznow out of a Gone West mare.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R5: #6 March Too 10-1
R7: #3 S.S. Minnow 12-1
Good luck today!
