STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/22/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Saturday, 2/22/14 NCAACB Knowledge - Late Edition*****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
____________________________________________
Saturday's Notebook
•Kansas (-4) lost 81-69 at Texas Feb 1; Longhorns were 30-45 on the foul line, Jayhawks 13-19. Kansas is 11-3 in last 14 series games, with Horns losing five of last six visits here, last two by 10-26 points. Big X double digit home favorites are 4-10 against spread. Jayhawks are 3-1-2 as home favorite, with five of six home wins by 10+ points. Texas is 2-3 as road underdog, losing last two away games by 17-9 points.
•Syracuse (-2.5) outscored Duke 26-12 on foul line, beat Blue Devils Feb 1 in OT 91-89; Duke was 15-36 from arc, Orange 3-4. Both teams lost last game; Duke blew 11-point second half lead in 74-66 loss Thursday in Chapel Hill. Syracuse lost at home to BC Wednesday- they've scored 61 or less points in each of last five games. ACC home favorites of less than 7 points are 10-20 versus spread. Duke is 4-2 as a home favorite.
•Saint Louis won last 18 games, is 11-0 in A-13, 2-3 as home favorite, but covered only once in last five games overall; Billikens beat GW last two years, by 22-8 points- their last three wins were by total of eight points. Colonials lost two of last three games, are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-10-17 points. A-13 home favorites of 5+ points are 15-17 versus spread. GW lost last four visits here, three by 10+ points.
•Boise State led by 11 with 3:48 left, collapsed in 73-69 loss at UNLV on Feb 1, its 5th loss in last six series games. Home team won seven of last eight series games; Rebels lost two of last three visits here, are 2-2 as dog on road. Mountain West home favorites of 8 or less points are 13-11 versus spread. Boise is 2-5 as a home favorite; their last two home games were decided by total of 3 points. Birch had six blocked shots in first game.
•Stanford won four of last five games, covered last five at home- they've covered last five home games, but lost 91-74 (+5.5) at UCLA Jan 23, as Bruins forced 19 turnovers (+13), made 55% inside arc. Bruins won four in row, 13 of last 15 series games, but split last four visits here. Pac-12 home teams are 11-13 versus spread in games where spread was less than 4 points. Cardinal won four of their last five road games.
•New Mexico won four of last five games versus San Diego State- they beat Aztecs in last two Mountain West tourneys, but lost two of last three series games played here. Lobos won eight of last nine games, are 3-3 as home favorite, winning last four in Pit. San Diego State lost at Wyoming in last road game, after winning 20 games in row- they're 6-3 versus spread in last nine games overall. MW home teams are 13-15 versus spread if spread was 4 or less points.
•Arizona (-14) shot 59% inside arc, beat Colorado 69-57 at home Jan 23; home teams won all five regular season meetings. Wildcats lost by 1-13 points in Boulder last two years- teams split pair of meetings in Pac-12 tourney. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 versus spread. Arizona's last four road games were all decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Colorado won its last five home games, even without Dinwiddie.
•North Dakota State (-4) won 85-77 at South Dakota State Jan 25, just its second win in last six series games; Jackrabbits lost five of its last six visits here, losing by 27-22-12-23-3 points. ND State won four in row, nine of last ten games- they're 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 22-13-6-11 points. SD State won/covered its last six games; they're 3-1 as road dog. Summit League home favorites of 8+ points are 6-8 versus spread.
•Murray State won last three games with Morehead State, beating them in double OT on road LY after blowing 20-point second half lead. Racers won six of last seven games but split last four on road- they're 7-0 SU at home in OVC, but failed to cover last three home games. Morehead won its last game in double OT; they've won four in row on road, five in row overall. OVC home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-10 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- LA-MONROE is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA-MONROE 59.1, OPPONENT 74.8.
--STANFORD is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse since 1997.
The average score was STANFORD 69.7, OPPONENT 54.0.
-- FRESNO ST is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in February games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 29.8, OPPONENT 25.6.
-- WICHITA ST is 19-5 against the 1rst half line (+13.5 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WICHITA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 26.3.
-- STEVE ALFORD is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was ALFORD 77.7, OPPONENT 73.0.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NEW MEXICO is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW MEXICO 68.2, OPPONENT 56.7.
-- ARIZONA is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 70.8, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 6*)
-- TEXAS is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 36.7, OPPONENT 31.7.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 31.3, OPPONENT 24.0.
--TAD BOYLE is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game as the coach of COLORADO.
The average score was BOYLE 70.5, OPPONENT 70.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +135 to -155 (UCLA) – an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(207-56 since 1997.) (78.7%, +107.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -178
The average score in these games was: Team 72.5, Opponent 65.3 (Average point differential = +7.2)
The situation's record this season is: (40-12, +16.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (78-24, +33 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (118-32, +59.7 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UC-RIVERSIDE) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season.
(30-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 68.9, Opponent 69.4 (Average point differential = -0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (38.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (66-35).
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (N ARIZONA) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-20)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.3
The average score in these games was: Team 70.4, Opponent 71.6 (Average point differential = -1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (36.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (KENTUCKY) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(34-7 since 1997.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 145.6
The average score in these games was: Team 73.5, Opponent 62.4 (Total points scored = 136)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (53.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (UC-IRVINE) - an excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), off a road win against a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.4, Opponent 29 (Average first half point differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-25).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (KANSAS) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(36-10 since 1997.) (78.3%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 68
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.2, Opponent 32.2 (Total first half points scored = 64.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
___________________________________________
Saturday's Match-ups
#601 SYRACUSE @ #602 DUKE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -6, Total: 134) - The highly anticipated showdown between No. 1 Syracuse and No. 6 Duke on Saturday certainly lost some of its luster in the last 72 hours. The Orange suffered their first defeat Wednesday in a stunning home upset at the hands of lowly Boston College while the Blue Devils had their four-game winning streak halted by rival North Carolina on Thursday. This meeting will be played on Duke's home court after Syracuse won the first meeting at the Carrier Dome, 91-89 in overtime on Feb. 1.
However, the Orange have averaged only 58.2 points over their last five games and struggled mightily on offense in the 62-59 overtime defeat to Boston College. "We gotta score more," said Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim, whose team ranks 231st in the nation in offense. "We're not going to win many games shooting 32 percent, 16 percent from the 3. It's really simple. This isn't complicated. We gotta be better on offense." The Blue Devils were 5-of-22 from 3-point range against the Tar Heels and after the 74-66 loss, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said, "We looked tired. We didn't have life. We just didn't have that spark, that anger, the emotion, the thing that you have to have to match their crowd and their team.”
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (25-1 SU, 13-8-1 ATS, 12-1 ACC): C.J. Fair led the Orange with 20 points against the Eagles but shot only 7-of-23 and is now 12-of-39 (30.8 percent) over his last two games. Syracuse's other athletic wing, Jerami Grant, is shooting about 48 percent on the season but has shot below 45 percent in seven of his last eight contests with the first Duke game as the only exception. Even steady freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been off his game of late, shooting 36.2 percent over his last five contests - including 2-of-10 from 3-point range.
•ABOUT DUKE (21-6 SU, 17-10-0 ATS, 10-4 ACC): Freshman star Jabari Parker had his second straight double-double on Thursday - 17 points and 11 rebounds - but he missed his only 3-pointer and is now 4-of-20 from behind the arc over the last month. Rodney Hood delivered a solid performance against North Carolina with 16 points, but the 6-8 swingman had no rebounds, giving him a total of two boards in 86 combined minutes over his last three games. Due to the Tar Heels' game initially being rescheduled due to a snow storm, the Blue Devils will be playing their third game in five days.
•PREGAME NOTES: Fair (28 points) and Grant (24) each set a career high in the first meeting between the teams.... Hood has not scored 20 points in any of his last 11 games after reaching the plateau eight times during the season's first two months.... The game matches up Krzyzewski (978) and Boeheim (945) - the two all-time wins leaders in Division 1.... Syracuse is 8-1 versus the spread in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Blue Devils are 0-6 against the spread in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 519 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 689 times, while SYRACUSE won 284 times. In 1000 simulated games, 787 games went over the total, while 189 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE covered the first half line 483 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 780 games went over first half total, while 220 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 1-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE since 1997.
--DUKE is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SYR is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Sat. games.
--Under is 13-3-1 in SYR last 17 overall
--Under is 16-5 in SYR last 21 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--DUKE is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--DUKE is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 5-2 in DUKE last 7 Saturday games.
_______________________________
#613 TEXAS @ #614 KANSAS
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Kansas -10, Total: 148) - Eighth-ranked Kansas can move closer to locking up the top seed for the Big 12 postseason tournament if it can avenge a loss to visiting Texas on Saturday. The No. 17 Longhorns posted an 81-69 home victory over the Jayhawks on Feb. 1 and stand two games behind first-place Kansas in the conference race with five to play. The Jayhawks avoided Texas Tech’s upset bid on Tuesday, escaping with a 64-63 road victory.
The Longhorns lost at Iowa State on Tuesday to provide Kansas with an unexpected cushion entering the rematch. “It’s big, it’s big but it doesn't mean anything unless we win Saturday,” Jayhawks coach Bill Self told reporters. “That’s the game that would give us serious breathing room, although we've got a little bit now.” Texas has hit a bit of a rut by splitting its last four games after reeling off seven consecutive victories.
•ABOUT TEXAS (20-6 SU, 12-11-0 ATS, 9-4 Big 12): Freshman point guard Isaiah Taylor scored 26 points in the loss to Iowa State for his third 20-point outing in seven games, which includes a 23-point effort in the victory over Kansas. Taylor is tied for the team scoring lead (13.1) with forward Jonathan Holmes and has made 47 of his last 50 free throws. Guard Javan Felix (12.8) and center Cameron Ridley (10.8 points, team-leading 7.9 rebounds and 60 blocked shots) also score in double digits for the Longhorns.
•ABOUT KANSAS (20-6 SU, 13-12-1 ATS, 11-2 Big 12): Leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (16.2) had a dreadful showing against the Longhorns earlier this month when he scored just seven points on 2-of-12 shooting. Wiggins is averaging 17 points in five games since the poor effort and has made 124 free throws on the season, passing the school freshman mark of 120 set in 2012-13 by Ben McLemore. Forward Perry Ellis (13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds), center Joel Embiid (11 points, 7.8 rebounds) and guard Wayne Selden Jr. (10.2) also average in double figures for the Jayhawks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas holds a 22-8 series lead and has won eight of the past 10 meetings.... Felix is averaging 20.3 points over the last three games but was a porous 6-of-22 from the field against Iowa State.... Embiid has blocked 62 shots, tying the Kansas freshman record set by Eric Chenowith in 1997-98.... The Jayhawks are 9-1 against the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... The Longhorns are 19-42 versus the spread after two or more consecutive overs since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS covered the spread 486 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 775 times, while TEXAS won 206 times. In 1000 simulated games, 631 games went over the total, while 336 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the first half line 529 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 414 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 628 games went over first half total, while 372 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 14-10 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-7 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS is 13-11 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Over is 10-3 in TEX last 13 Sat. games.
--Over is 15-6 in TEX last 21 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 8-2 in KU last 10 overall.
--Over is 9-0 in KU last 9 Sat. games.
--Over is 8-2 in KU last 10 vs. Big 12.
_______________________________
#619 GEORGE WASHINGTON @ #620 ST LOUIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Saint Louis -8, Total: N/A) - After needing overtime Wednesday to extend its school record winning streak, No. 10 Saint Louis looks to make it 19 straight when it hosts George Washington on Saturday. The Billikens' run has tempted fate several times in February, with two overtime decisions over George Mason and four of its last five wins decided by six points or fewer. "It's hard to win one," coach Jim Crews told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "It's hard to beat someone twice."
George Washington snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-65 victory at Richmond last time out, moving the Colonials to 8-4 in Atlantic 10 play and into strong second-place contention. "Every game is important now this time of the year," coach Mike Lonergan told the Washington Post. "That was definitely a much needed win for us." Maurice Creek, a regular starter, gave George Washington a lift with a game-high 16 points in a reserve role, designed to spark the Colonials' slumping bench.
•ABOUT GEORGE WASHINGTON (20-6 SU, 14-7-0 ATS, 8-5 Atlantic 10): The Colonials are aware that bringing a collective mental toughness to each game down the stretch is going to be key. Point guard Joe McDonald scored the decisive layup against Richmond and after struggling through a 3-of-11 shooting performance, his coach's message of believing in himself made all the difference. "(Coach Lonergan) wanted the guards to be a little more aggressive," McDonald told reporters. "(My) shots weren't really falling (but) I just had to stay confident."
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (24-2 SU, 9-14-0 ATS, 11-0 Atlantic 10): All five starters reached double figures for the Billikens in Wednesday's 89-85 victory and guard Jordair Jett shook off a shaky first half to finish with a team-high 25 points and eight assists. Jett had one point at halftime but exploded for 24 after the break to pace the Saint Louis' offense. Dwayne Evans is the Billikens' leading scorer, averaging 14.7 points, while Jett adds 13.7 points to go with a team-leading five assists per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Billikens rely on a staunch defense that leads the Atlantic 10, allowing 59.9 points per game.... George Washington is 5-5 all-time against Saint Louis, with the Billikens winning two straight in the series and four of the last six.... Saint Louis is in the top 10 for the first time since 1964.... George Washington is 6-15 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Billikens are 11-2 versus the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGE WASHINGTON covered the spread 537 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 651 times, while GEORGE WASHINGTON won 316 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGE WASHINGTON covered the first half line 584 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 416 times. *EDGE against first half line =GEORGE WASHINGTON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAINT LOUIS is 5-5 against the spread versus GEORGE WASHINGTON since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 5-5 straight up against GEORGE WASHINGTON since 1997.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 5-5 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGE WASHINGTON since 1997.
--8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GW is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Sat. games.
--Over is 13-4-1 in GW last 18 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Over is 7-1 in GW last 8 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 20-8 in SLU last 28 overall.
--Under is 8-1 in SLU last 9 Sat. games.
--Under is 11-4 in SLU last 15 vs. Atlantic 10.
_______________________________
#633 DRAKE @ #634 WICHITA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, KS 22 (Wichita), ESPN3 - Line: Wichita State -16.5, Total: N/A) - Wichita State is the last unbeaten team left and has no desire to surrender that title anytime soon. The third-ranked Shockers will look to keep their perfect season alive when they host Drake on Saturday. Wichita State easily dispatched Loyola (Ill.) on Wednesday while No. 1 Syracuse was losing to Boston College, leaving the Shockers all alone on the undefeated list in Division I.
The Bulldogs have won two straight to pull out of a four-game slide but are just 1-6 in their last seven road games and were crushed at home 78-61 by Wichita State on Jan. 25. The Shockers are running into little trouble in the Missouri Valley Conference and will play two of their final three at home as they aim for a perfect regular season. Cleanthony Early led the way with 19 points and seven rebounds in the first meeting with Drake and has scored in double figures in nine straight games.
•ABOUT DRAKE (14-13 SU, 13-12-0 ATS, 5-10 MVC): The Bulldogs are well off the NCAA Tournament bubble but could make their season by knocking off the Shockers. Drake is taking some momentum into the contest after holding off a late rally in a 70-67 triumph over Northern Iowa on Tuesday. Richard Carter, who was held to six points in the loss to Wichita State, scored 19 on Tuesday and is shooting 54.1 percent from the field while averaging 18.7 points in the last three games.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (28-0 SU, 18-6-1 ATS, 15-0 MVC): The Shockers get every team’s best effort but have so far been able to avoid any letdowns against lesser competition. Early only needed 21 minutes to score 18 points in Wednesday’s road triumph over the Ramblers while Fred VanVleet was 6-of-6 from the field and 10-of-10 from the line for a team-high 22 points as Wichita State steadily pulled away. The Shockers’ last four wins have come by an average of 12.5 points and they can clinch the MVC regular-season crown with a victory.
•PREGAME NOTES: Wichita State has taken three straight and six of the last seven in the series.... Bulldogs freshman F Trevor Berkeley knocked down 3-of-3 from beyond the arc en route to a season-high 15 points Tuesday.... Shockers G Tekele Cotton was held to eight points Wednesday, snapping a string of five straight games in double figures.... Drake is 1-9 against the spread in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game over the last three seasons.... Wichita State is 16-6 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DRAKE covered the spread 589 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =DRAKE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 839 times, while DRAKE won 136 times. In 1000 simulated games, DRAKE covered the first half line 663 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 337 times. *EDGE against first half line =DRAKE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WICHITA ST is 21-13 against the spread versus DRAKE since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 26-9 straight up against DRAKE since 1997.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DRAKE is 18-17 versus the first half line when playing against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Wichita St.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DRKE is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--DRKE is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 13-3 in DRKE last 16 road games.
--WICH is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Sat. games.
--Over is 8-2 in WICH last 10 Sat. games.
--Under is 35-17 in WICH last 52 home games.
_______________________________
#649 UCLA @ #650 STANFORD
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Pick, Total: 148) - Stanford has won four of its last five games to improve its NCAA Tournament resume, but the Cardinal could definitely use a victory over visiting UCLA on Saturday. Coach Johnny Dawkins’ squad faces a formidable task against the 25th-ranked Bruins, who are 7-1 in their last eight contests and stand one game behind first-place Arizona. “We've been playing some good basketball as of late,” UCLA forward Travis Wear told reporters. “This is the perfect time to be doing it. I think we’re really dangerous.”
Wear has been a key part of the Bruins’ recent surge, averaging 10.7 points and 4.2 rebounds over his last six games. Point guard Kyle Anderson, a leading candidate for Pac-12 player of the year honors, had 11 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday’s 86-66 victory at California. Anderson had 13 points and 10 boards in a 91-74 win over Stanford on Jan. 23, when the Bruins shot 52.3 percent and forced 19 turnovers.
•ABOUT UCLA (21-5 SU, 17-8-0 ATS, 10-3 Pac-12): The Bruins have been nearly unstoppable during their four-game winning streak while shooting 51.7 percent from the field, including 50.7 percent from 3-point range. Guard Jordan Adams scored a game-high 28 points against California and leads the Bruins with 17.5 points per game. Forward Tony Parker is looking to get untracked after being held to single digits in seven straight games since scoring a season-high 22 points against the Cardinal last month.
•ABOUT STANFORD (17-8 SU, 15-7-1 ATS, 8-5 Pac-12): Forward Josh Huestis had a career-high 18 rebounds along with three blocked shots to become Stanford's all-time leader with 169 in Thursday’s 80-59 win over Southern California. The Cardinal frontline also boasts 6-10 forward Dwight Powell, who has averaged 11.1 points and 7.6 rebounds in seven career games against the Bruins. Stanford still relies heavily on his starters – Dawkins has used the same starting lineup in all 25 games – but reserve guard Robbie Lemons has worked his way into the rotation in recent weeks.
•PREGAME NOTES: UCLA leads the all-time series 139-91, including eight wins in the last 10 meetings.... Stanford is 12-2 when leading at halftime.... Adams needs 39 points to become the 50th player in UCLA history to reach the 1,000-point mark.... The Bruins are 8-2 versus the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.... Stanford is 7-1 against the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 556 times, while STANFORD covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 556 times, while STANFORD won 411 times. In 1000 simulated games, 628 games went over the total, while 335 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 511 times, while STANFORD covered the first half line 447 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 575 games went over first half total, while 425 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCLA is 18-15 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1997.
--UCLA is 18-16 straight up against STANFORD since 1997.
--22 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--STANFORD is 17-17 versus the first half line when playing against UCLA since 1997.
--20 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bruins are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Stanford.
--Over is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Stanford.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in UCLA last 10 road games.
--Under is 4-1 in UCLA last 5 Saturday games.
--STAN is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 11-4 in STAN last 15 Sat. games.
--Over is 13-6-1 in STAN last 20 vs. Pacific-12.
_______________________________
#651 TEMPLE @ #652 MEMPHIS
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Memphis -15, Total: 147) - Memphis must avoid looking ahead as it faces two struggling teams in the next week, starting with a visit from Temple on Saturday. The 24th-ranked Tigers end the regular season with games against the three teams currently above them in the American Athletic Conference standings after meeting the Owls and Houston (Feb. 27) – squads that have combined for two wins in February. Memphis has won four of its last five and eight of 10, led by the second-best scoring offense in the league.
Tigers leading scorer Joe Jackson hopes to rebound from a 3-of-12 shooting performance in the 64-59 victory at Rutgers on Thursday, but Memphis possesses plenty of offensive weapons. The Tigers average 79.1 points and stand second in the AAC in field-goal percentage, while Temple allows the most points in the league. The Owls do boast four players in the top 14 in the league in scoring and own a recent win over Southern Methodist.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (7-18 SU, 9-13-1 ATS, 2-11 AAC): The Owls often have been competitive this season, but they have had trouble finishing games and are giving up 77.5 points per contest in league play. Dalton Pepper is fourth in the AAC in scoring (17.1) and Will Cummings (15.9) stands seventh as Temple scores 73 points per game but shoots a league-worst 42.7 percent. Quenton DeCosey contributes 14.9 points and Anthony Lee adds 13.8 while leading the league in rebounding (8.8), but the bench has not contributed much.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (20-6 SU, 14-9-0 ATS, 9-4 AAC): Jackson has been a consistent force at point guard, averaging 14.8 points, and keys a balanced offense that paces the league in assists (17.7). Forward Shaq Goodwin is second in scoring (12.2), leads the team in rebounds (6.5) and blocks (48) and tops the conference in field-goal percentage (61.3). Michael Dixon Jr. averages 11.5 points after scoring a team-high 15 on Thursday and Chris Crawford (9.1) is the top 3-point threat at 40.3 percent with 58 makes on the season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis, which beat Temple 79-69 on Jan. 11, has won 20 games for a school-record 14th straight season.... Pepper leads the AAC in minutes played per game (37), DeCosey is second (35.2) and Cummings ranks fourth (33.3).... Memphis is 174-20 on its home court – the FedExForum – since moving there for the 2004-05 campaign, including a 12-2 mark this season.... Temple is 12-3 versus the spread revenging a loss versus opponent over the last three seasons.... The Tigers are 15-5 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 548 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 426 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 842 times, while TEMPLE won 147 times. In 1000 simulated games, 662 games went over the total, while 314 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 598 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 402 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE. In 1000 simulated games, 643 games went over first half total, while 326 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 2-2 against the spread versus TEMPLE since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against TEMPLE since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 10-3 in TEM last 13 road games.
--Over is 19-7-1 in TEM last 27 Sat. games.
--MEM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 6-2 in MEM last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 9-4 in MEM last 13 home games.
_______________________________
#657 SAN DIEGO ST @ #658 NEW MEXICO
(TV: 10:05 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: New Mexico -3.5, Total: 132) - The most anticipated game in the Mountain West Conference this season finally arrives Saturday, when New Mexico hosts No. 7 San Diego State in the first of two meetings over the final two weeks of the regular season. The Aztecs enter with a one-game lead over the Lobos, losing ground in the conference standings and dropping two spots in this week’s USA Today Coaches Poll with a shocking loss at Wyoming last week. New Mexico continues to be led by guard Kendall Williams, forward Cameron Bairstow and center Alex Kirk, each of whom averages better than 14 points.
The Aztecs continue to get the job done on the defensive end, ranking third in the nation in opposition points (57) coming into the week before holding Utah State to 45 in a 15-point win Tuesday - tying for the fourth-fewest points allowed by San Diego State since 1996. The Aztecs will need to find a way to score some points, however, and that responsibility will fall heavily on senior guard Xavier Thames, who’s averaging a team-high 17.2 points despite coming off a season-worst four-point performance on 1-of-9 shooting against Utah State. Thames followed his previous two single-digit efforts this season with lackluster outings, which the Aztecs cannot afford against the Lobos.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (23-2 SU, 13-9-0 ATS, 12-1 MWC): A wild card for the Aztecs could be forward Matt Shrigley, who is coming off his best game of the season in which he scored 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting. Shrigley recorded nine points in the first half, which was more than he totaled in his previous five games combined. Shrigley will look to take advantage of a New Mexico bench that relies heavily on its own freshman sharpshooter, Cullen Neal.
•ABOUT NEW MEXICO (19-5 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 10-2 MWC): Kirk scored 25 points and Bairstow added 16 when the Lobos posted a 70-60 victory on Feb. 27. The 7-foot Kirk will attempt to take advantage of his size again, but San Diego State’s tallest starter, 6-10 forward Skylar Spencer, has proven to be stiff around the rim, blocking at least four shots in nine games this season. Bairstow has been even more unstoppable of late, surpassing his season average of 20.2 points three times in the last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Williams is three assists away from moving into third place on New Mexico's all-time list.... The Aztecs have won 29 straight games when shooting at a higher percentage than their opponent.... San Diego State never has been 12-1 in conference play.... New Mexico is 16-6 against the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last two seasons, including 10-2 ATS after 15+games.... The Aztecs are 26-13 versus the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW MEXICO covered the spread 532 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NEW MEXICO won the game straight up 615 times, while SAN DIEGO ST won 347 times. In 1000 simulated games, 626 games went over the total, while 346 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW MEXICO covered the first half line 516 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 636 games went over first half total, while 364 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW MEXICO is 21-12 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--NEW MEXICO is 18-16 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--14 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NEW MEXICO is 19-12 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New Mexico.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New Mexico.
--Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SDSU is 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 road games.
--SDSU is 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 Sat. games.
--Under is 22-6 in SDSU last 28 overall.
--UNM is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--UNM is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--Under is 4-1 in UNM last 5 vs. Mountain West.
_______________________________
#661 ARIZONA @ #662 COLORADO
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arizona -4, Total: 130.5) - When Spencer Dinwiddie suffered a season-ending knee injury on Jan. 12, it appeared Colorado's chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament for a school-record third straight year were greatly diminished. After losing four of their first five games without their star guard, the Buffaloes turned it around by winning five of their last six and have a big opportunity to impress the selection committee further when they host No. 4 Arizona on Saturday on Senior Night at Coors Events Center.
After a 21-0 start, the Wildcats dropped two of their next five games since losing forward Brandon Ashley (11.5 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) to a season-ending foot injury and lead the Pac-12 by one game over UCLA and 2 1/2 over the third-place Buffaloes. Arizona's main rotation is down to six players, and its starters averaged 40.2 minutes in a 69-66 double-overtime loss at Arizona State on Friday and a 67-63 overtime victory at Utah on Wednesday. Colorado uses more players, with eight averaging at least 10 minutes, but three - guard Askia Booker and forwards Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson - do most of the heavy lifting.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (24-2 SU, 15-10-0 ATS, 11-2 Pac-12): Center Kaleb Tarczewski (9.8 points, 6.8 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game) realizes the importance of a deep bench. “We sort of talked about it... everyone on our team is ready to play those extra minutes,” Tarczewski told reporters. “It’s something we have to do to win.” The Wildcats continue to lean hard on guard Nick Johnson (team highs of 15.8 points and 32.4 minutes), who averaged 37 minutes in the last five games.
•ABOUT COLORADO (20-7 SU, 15-11-0 ATS, 9-5 Pac-12): Booker, Scott and Xavier Johnson combined for 42 points and 25 rebounds in the 61-52 victory over Arizona State on Wednesday. "That was a great win for our program and it came at a very instrumental time in the season against a very quality Arizona State team," coach Tad Boyle told reporters. Colorado, which is 16-1 at home this season and 60-8 during Boyle's tenure, finishes the regular season on the road against Utah, Stanford and California.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona has won a conference-best 30 true road games since the start of 2009-10 but is 0-2 at Colorado since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 in 2010.... The Wildcats have a rebounding margin of plus-8.9, while the Buffaloes are at plus-7.4.... Arizona prevailed in the season's first meeting on Jan. 23, posting a 69-57 triumph in Tucson.... The Buffaloes are 9-0 against the spread versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last two seasons.... Arizona is 16-3 Under when playing against a team with a winning record, and 9-0 Under versus good foul drawing teams - attempting less than 25 free throws/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the spread 509 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 585 times, while COLORADO won 378 times. In 1000 simulated games, 704 games went over the total, while 296 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the first half line 508 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 635 games went over first half total, while 323 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--COLORADO is 4-4 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 5-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1997.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 4-4 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 26-5 in ARIZ last 31 Sat. games.
--Under is 15-5-2 in ARIZ last 22 vs. Pacific-12.
--COLO is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--COLO is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--Over is 5-1 in COLO last 6 Saturday games.
_______________________________
#663 GONZAGA @ #664 SAN DIEGO
(TV: Midnight EST, ESPN2 - Line: Gonzaga -7.5, Total: 130.5) - Gonzaga, which is coming off a rare conference loss, faces an opponent it typically beats when it visits San Diego late Saturday night. The 22nd-ranked Bulldogs suffered only their second defeat in their last 33 West Coast Conference games when they fell to Brigham Young on Thursday but have emerged victorious in 33 of the last 35 meetings with the Toreros. San Diego put up a supreme effort in the first matchup this season before Gonzaga escaped with a 59-56 home win on Jan. 23.
The Toreros have lost 11 straight games to Gonzaga despite a few recent close calls, including the contest in Spokane in which Christopher Anderson missed a tying 3-point attempt at the buzzer. The Bulldogs are 2-2 over their last four games – including a non-conference loss to Memphis – and committed 16 turnovers in the sloppy 73-65 loss to BYU. “We had some silly ones right at the end,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few said afterward. “You just can’t do that on the road.”
•ABOUT GONZAGA (23-5 SU, 13-12-1 ATS, 13-2 WCC): The Bulldogs will clinch the regular-season conference crown with their next victory and will be looking for better shooting from guards Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. after the duo was a combined 6-of-20 against BYU. “We had some pretty good looks out there,” Few said. “Gary had a lot of good looks. We just didn’t knock them down.” Pangos averages a team-best 15.1 points, forward Sam Dower contributes 14.8 and 6.8 rebounds and Bell adds 11.3 points.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO (15-14 SU, 13-12-0 ATS, 6-10 WCC): Guard Johnny Dee, who averages 17.1 points, nearly guided the Toreros to a home upset of Gonzaga last season when he scored 21 points in a 65-63 loss. Dee ranks fifth in school history with 1,432 career points and has made a school-record 241 3-pointers. Guard Duda Sanadze (13.2) and forward Dennis Kramer (11.6 points, team-best 6.7 rebounds) also score in double digits while Anderson averages 9.6 points and 5.9 assists to go with a team-leading 49 steals.
•PREGAME NOTES: Dower had 18 points in last month’s over the Toreros while Dee scored 26 for San Diego.... The Bulldogs held eight consecutive opponents under 70 points before giving up 73 against the Cougars.... Anderson has 515 career assists, 10 behind the school mark held by Brandon Johnson (2005-10).... San Diego is 11-3 versus the spread when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last three seasons.... The Bulldogs are 8-0 against the spread when playing with one or less days rest this season, including 6-0 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO covered the spread 502 times, while GONZAGA covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 686 times, while SAN DIEGO won 290 times. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went over the total, while 340 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO covered the first half line 514 times, while GONZAGA covered the first half line 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 621 games went over first half total, while 335 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO is 22-19 against the spread versus GONZAGA since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 37-5 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1997.
--15 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 21-20 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO since 1997.
--15 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 14-3 in GONZ last 17 road games.
--Under is 35-13-3 in GONZ last 51 Sat. games.
--Under is 38-13-1 in GONZ last 52 vs. West Coast.
--USD is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in USD last 10 overall.
--Under is 7-3 in USD last 10 vs. West Coast.
_______________________________
