STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/15/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 2/15/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Saturday's Notebook
•LaSalle won four of last six games with St Joe's, but Explorers lost five of last six games overall, are 1-2 as home favorites, 3-2 SU at home, with home wins by 4-10-8 with losses to VCU/St Louis. A-13 favorites are 12-9 versus spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. Hawks are 7-2 in last nine games, 3-2 as A-13 underdogs- they've been off for week, a good thing for team playing a six-man rotation.
•Connecticut (+6.5) won 83-73 at Memphis Jan 16, making 64.9% of shots inside arc, overcoming -6 (15-9) turnover ratio. Huskies won five of last six games, are 4-0 as home favorites, with four wins by 23+ points and a loss to Louisville. Memphis won five of last six games, is 4-1 on road in AAC, with only loss by 15 at SMU- they won at Louisville. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-3 versus spread.
•North Carolina got snowed out Wednesday; they've won/covered five in a row, winning last four home games by 11-19-14-12 points. Pitt had its heart torn out by last-second 35-footer Wednesday; they're 2-3 in last five games (0-5 vs. spread) but all three losses were at home. Pittsburgh's last four games were all decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-13 versus spread. UNC is 3-2 as a HF.
•Home side won 11 of last 13 Iowa-Penn State games; Hawkeyes are 1-5 in last six visits here, winning by hoop LY. PSU is 4-2 in last six games after starting 0-6 in league play; they're 2-4 at home- its last three home losses were by 3-3-5 points. Iowa is 3-3 in last six games, with two of three losses at home; they're 2-0 as road favorites, with all three road wins (3-2) by 7+ points. Big Dozen home underdogs are 8-9 versus spread.
•Oklahoma State lost by 19 at Texas in first game of Smart's suspension; Cowboys lost last five games, are 0-6 versus spread in last six- they lost at Oklahoma 88-76 (-4) Jan 27; Sooners were 30-42 on line, State 15-22. OSU lost last two home games; they're down two starters and a backup PG. Oklahoma lost three of last four games- they're 4-2 as a road dog. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-2 versus spread.
•Saint Louis beat VCU twice LY in Rams' first year in A-13, winning by 14-6 points, including win in A-13 tourney finals. Billikens won all nine A-13 games- they're 2-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-22-20-6 points. VCU avenged a loss to GW with Wednesday's win, its 7th win in last eight games; Rams are 2-2 on A-13 road, losing last home game to St Joe's. A-13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-9.
•George Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS at home in A-13, with all five wins by 10+ points; Colonials are 3-2 in last five games with UMass, but lost to Minutemen in A-13 tourney LY. Massachusetts is 3-4 in its last seven games after a 16-1 start; star G Williams got hurt last game, is a questionable here. A-13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-9 versus spread. Minutemen lost three of last four A-13 road games with lone win at URI.
•Middle Tennessee won its last six games (4-1-1 vs. spread); they've won last four home games, all by 16+ points, are 4-2 as home favorites in its first year in Conference-USA. Southern Miss had its 7-game win streak snapped at UAB Thursday; they're 3-2 on road, with all three wins by 10+; other loss was at Tulsa. C-USA home teams are 17-15 against the spread, in games where spread was 5 or less points.
•Buffalo won five of last six games, is 5-0 as home favorites, with four of five wins by 11+ points, but they've lost six games in row to Ohio, with Bobcats winning last three visits here by 3-7-11 points. Ohio lost two of last three games, is 1-4 versus spread in last five, losing last two road games, by 16 at Western Michigan, 6 at Toledo. Bobcats are 2-1 as underdogs. MAC single digit home favorites are 12-18 versus spread.
•Green Bay won its last four games versus Cleveland State, winning 66-55 at home Jan 2 (-7.5), game they trailed by 6 at half; its 66-59 win here LY ended 0-5 skid in this gym. Vikings were just 3-21 from arc in that game. Green Bay is 3-2 in last five games, 1-5 versus spread in last six. Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-14 versus spread. Vikings won and covered last six games; they won four of last five home games.
•Missouri snapped 3-game skid with hectic 86-85 win over former coach Anderson's Razorbacks Thursday; Tigers won three of last four at home, losing to Georgia/Kentucky at home this year- they're 1-3 as favorites at home. Tennessee lost two of last three games, is 3-2 on SEC road, but they've had two extra days to prepare for this game. SEC home teams are 22-11-1 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
•BYU (-6) beat St Mary's 84-71 at home two weeks ago, after trailing by 14 in first half; it was Cougars' first win in five games versus St Mary's- they lost last two visits here, by 16-7 points. BYU is 2-5 on West Coast Conference road, with losses by 4-15-7 in last three. WCC home favorites of less than 4 points are 8-5 versus spread. St Mary's won last three games, is 3-3 as home favorite, with three of five wins in Moraga by 12+ points.
•Florida is 11-0 in SEC with only three wins by 6 or less points; Gators lost six of last seven games with Kentucky, losing last five visits here, with four losses by 8 or less points. Florida won its last 16 games- last loss was Dec 2 by point at Connecticut. Kentucky won its last four games; they're 5-0 at home in SEC- its losses are by 2 at Arkansas, at LSU by 5. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-5 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IOWA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 75.8, OPPONENT 65.7.
-- S ILLINOIS is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S ILLINOIS 67.8, OPPONENT 71.9.
-- HOUSTON is 23-5 against the 1rst half line (+17.5 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was HOUSTON 34.7, OPPONENT 34.3.
-- VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as a home favorite this season.
The average score was VA COMMONWEALTH 32.4, OPPONENT 28.1.
-- TODD HOWARD is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers as the coach of IUPUI.
The average score was HOWARD 65.2, OPPONENT 75.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- SYRACUSE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was SYRACUSE 66.6, OPPONENT 55.9.
-- JAMES MADISON is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was JAMES MADISON 64.6, OPPONENT 61.6.
-- LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 31.3, OPPONENT 31.0.
-- TENNESSEE TECH is 23-2 UNDER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game since 1997.
The average score was TENNESSEE TECH 31.6, OPPONENT 34.7.
-- MARK MONTGOMERY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was MONTGOMERY 55.2, OPPONENT 58.5.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (THE CITADEL) - poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game), in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse.
(64-6 since 1997.) (91.4%, +51.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -216.7
The average score in these games was: Team 74.7, Opponent 64.1 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +13.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3, +16.4 units).
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (AUBURN) - revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite against opponent off a home loss against a conference rival, in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG).
(147-21 since 1997.) (87.5%, +89.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -275.5
The average score in these games was: Team 71.8, Opponent 62.6 (Average point differential = +9.2)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-3, +31.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (66-8, +45.2 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (VA COMMONWEALTH) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots.
(34-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.5
The average score in these games was: Team 67, Opponent 67.6 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (43.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-41).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UNC-WILMINGTON) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 69.1, Opponent 69.6 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (65-35).
-- Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in February games.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 154.4
The average score in these games was: Team 85.5, Opponent 76.2 (Total points scored = 161.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (KANSAS ST) - an excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off a road win.
(39-12 since 1997.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 125.7
The average score in these games was: Team 56.9, Opponent 62.6 (Total points scored = 119.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26 (52% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (TEXAS A&M) - a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent.
(28-3 since 1997.) (90.3%, +24.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (S DAKOTA ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 28.9 (Average first half point differential = +2.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-24).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (KANSAS ST) - a poor FT shooting team (61-65%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%), after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off a road win.
(45-11 since 1997.) (80.4%, +32.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 58
The average first half score in these games was: Team 25.5, Opponent 28.3 (Total first half points scored = 53.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
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Saturday's Match-ups
#507 VIRGINIA @ #508 CLEMSON
(TV: 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Virginia -4.5, Total: N/A) - The Virginia Cavaliers were the fastest-rising team in last week's USA TODAY coaches poll, thanks to an eight-game winning streak that includes an impressive triumph at Pittsburgh. The 16th-ranked Cavaliers look to extend that run Saturday afternoon as they visit a Clemson Tigers team that has dropped two straight games and four of its last six. Virginia improved to 10-1 in Atlantic Coast Conference action Monday with a 61-53 win over Maryland.
The Tigers have had a rough five days, dropping a double-digit decision to the top-ranked Syracuse Orange before losing a 68-64 double-overtime heartbreaker to Notre Dame. Clemson rallied twice from large late deficits against the Fighting Irish but ultimately fell short despite a career-best 30-point, 14-rebound performance from K.J. McDaniels. "We're going to learn from this," McDaniels told reporters after the game.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (20-5 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 11-1 ACC): The conference championship very well could come down to Virginia's showdown with the visiting Orange on March 1. But the Cavaliers have made it known they aren't looking past anyone - putting together its best start in conference play since opening 12-1 in 1981-82. The win over the Terrapins presented a rare opportunity for Virginia to play in a tightly contested game; the Cavaliers led by at least 19 points in nine of their previous 10 victories but only had a double-digit advantage once against Maryland.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (15-8 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 6-5 ACC): McDaniels has been the lone offensive star on a Clemson squad that has struggled to score all season. He's the only player on the team to average double digits in points (17) and also leads the club in rebounding (7.5), steals (1.1) and blocks. The Tigers shoot just 41.1 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from beyond the arc - and those struggles were on full display in the loss to Notre Dame, as Clemson went 34.3 percent from the floor while connecting on 7-of-29 3-point attempts.
•PREGAME NOTES: McDaniels averages 17.3 points and 8.4 rebounds in conference play.... Both teams limit opponents to 38.2 percent shooting from the field, the best mark in the ACC.... Virginia G Malcolm Brogdon has scored in double digits in 12 consecutive games.... The Tigers are 0-8 versus the spread after scoring 65 points or less five straight games over the last two seasons.... The Cavaliers are 6-0 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the spread 584 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 416 times. *EDGE against the spread =CLEMSON. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 573 times, while CLEMSON won 398 times. In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the first half line 558 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CLEMSON is 14-13 against the spread versus VIRGINIA since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 17-11 straight up against CLEMSON since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CLEMSON is 15-13 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Clemson.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Clemson.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 Sat. games.
--UVA is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in UVA last 6 road games.
--CLEM is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--CLEM is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 home games.
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#509 MEMPHIS @ #510 CONNECTICUT
(TV: Noon EST, ESPN - Line: Memphis -5, Total: N/A) - Memphis has won seven of its last eight games after suffering an 83-73 loss to Connecticut on Jan. 16. The 22nd-ranked Tigers look to exact revenge against their new American Athletic Conference foe when they visit the XL Center in Hartford (Conn.) on Saturday afternoon. Joe Jackson scored a team-high 18 points and Shaq Goodwin added 14 and six rebounds as Memphis recorded its third straight victory with a 76-70 win over Central Florida on Wednesday.
For the Tigers to continue their ascent, they'll need to slow down DeAndre Daniels and surging Connecticut. The junior forward torched Memphis by scoring 18 of his 23 points in the second half and added what then was a career-high 11 rebounds in the meeting last month. Daniels wasn't required to do as much on Wednesday as his 12 points led a balanced attack in the Huskies' 83-40 victory over South Florida.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (19-5 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 8-3 AAC): Named to the Wooden Award midseason list, Jackson leads the conference with an average of two steals while also remaining atop the club in points (14.6), assists (4.5) and minutes (32). While the senior guard's presence is felt in every contest, freshman reserve forward Dominic Woodson will sit out as he serves a one-game suspension for inappropriate language. "You're not going to use it on my bench, so I said, 'See ya,'" coach Josh Pastner said of his exchange with Woodson during Wednesday's contest. "No one is bigger than the program. That's the bottom line."
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (19-5 SU, 13-9-0 ATS, 7-4 AAC): Shabazz Napier also was named to the Wooden Award midseason list, which consists of the top 30 players in the nation. The guard leads the conference in assists (5.5) while also topping his own team in points (17.3) and rebounds (5.9). Guard Ryan Boatright is dealing with an admittedly injured shoulder but sits one point shy of reaching 1,000 for his career.
•PREGAME NOTES: Connecticut senior G-F Lasan Kromah scored 13 points in the last meeting, his third-largest output of the season.... Goodwin leads the conference with a 62.2 field-goal percentage, although he was just 4-of-9 for his lowest mark (44.4) in his last 11 contests.... The Huskies have won eight of their last 10 games.... Memphis is 25-8 against the spread versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.... The Huskies are 7-1 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 832 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 145 times. *EDGE against the spread =CONNECTICUT. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 704 times, while MEMPHIS won 263 times. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 753 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 247 times. *EDGE against first half line =CONNECTICUT.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 1-1 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Under is 13-6 in MEM last 19 overall.
--Under is 10-4 in MEM last 14 road games.
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--UCONN is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Sat. games.
--Under is 9-3 in UCONN last 12 home games.
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#513 PITTSBURGH @ #514 N CAROLINA
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: North Carolina -3, Total: N/A) - No. 23 Pittsburgh and North Carolina, two teams that endured major letdowns on Wednesday - albeit in totally different fashions, square off Saturday on the Tar Heels' home court. The Panthers led No. 1 Syracuse by one point with 4.4 seconds to play before Orange guard Tyler Ennis drained a 35-footer at the buzzer to stun the Pitt crowd. North Carolina's disappointment came in the form of a postponed game, as their much-anticipated showdown with No. 9 Duke was rescheduled due to a winter storm.
"I've been thinking about it all week," Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige told the team's website leading up to the Duke game. North Carolina has won five games in a row while Pittsburgh has dropped three of its last five - with both wins coming in extra time. The Panthers will try to remain upbeat after their crushing loss, as senior Lamar Patterson said afterward, "We played a great game, and when the No. 1 team has to hit a shot like that to win, you know we did a good job."
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (20-5 SU, 7-14-1 ATS, 8-4 ACC): Even though they went to both overtime and double-overtime in their last five contests, the Panthers only are averaging 57.4 points during that stretch. Talib Zanna broke out of a slump with 16 points and 14 rebounds against Syracuse, but Patterson - the team's leading scorer at 17 points - continued to struggle from the field. Patterson is shooting just 28.5 percent over the last five games and also has committed 18 turnovers during that span.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (16-7 SU, 12-11-0 ATS, 6-4 ACC): The Tar Heels have been remarkably consistent during their winning streak, as they've scored between 73 and 84 points in each game while allowing between 61 and 70. Of course, Wednesday's postponement means North Carolina has not played in a week since posting a 73-62 road win over Notre Dame. James Michael McAdoo led the team with 18 points in that contest and has scored in double figures every game since managing eight in a triumph over then-No. 1 Michigan State on Dec. 4.
•PREGAME NOTES: The North Carolina-Duke game was rescheduled for Feb. 20, meaning this contest kicks off a stretch during which the Tar Heels play four games in eight days.... Paige is a 90.5-percent foul shooter who also has made 51 of his team's 88 3-pointers.... Pitt PG James Robinson has recorded more than two turnovers in a game only once this season.... North Carolina is 12-2 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.... The Panthers are 0-7 versus the spread after three straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 634 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 339 times. *EDGE against the spread =PITTSBURGH. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 542 times, while N CAROLINA won 420 times. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 615 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 385 times. *EDGE against first half line =PITTSBURGH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PITT is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Sat. games.
--PITT is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 61-30-1 in PITT last 92 Sat. games.
--UNC is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 5-2 in UNC last 7 overall.
--Over is 5-2 in UNC last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#515 IOWA @ #516 PENN ST
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Iowa -7, Total: N/A) - Iowa looks to build its first winning streak in almost a month when it begins a tough road stretch with a visit to improving Penn State on Saturday. The 15th-ranked Hawkeyes have had a week of rest since notching a huge 85-67 home victory over No. 18 Michigan behind a 26-point performance from Roy Devyn Marble and play four of the next six on the road. Penn State has won four of its last six contests, including a 66-65 comeback victory at Indiana on Wednesday.
Iowa leads the league in scoring (83.7) and the Nittany Lions are last in average points allowed, but they yielded only an average of 60.7 over their last three games at home. The Hawkeyes could have an advantage on the boards, where they stand second in the Big Ten in rebounding margin while the Nittany Lions rank 10th. Penn State’s Tim Frazier and Mike Gesell of Iowa also will provide a key matchup at point guard.
•ABOUT IOWA (18-6 SU, 14-8-0 ATS, 7-4 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes, who have alternated wins and losses in the last six games, are third in the standings with trips to Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan State on the horizon - along with a home game versus Wisconsin. Marble made six 3-pointers against Michigan and averages 16.5 points to lead the team. Aaron White is the only other player averaging in double figures (13.2) while Gesell, who matched a career high with eight assists against Michigan, leads the Big Ten in assist-turnover ratio (3.2).
•ABOUT PENN STATE (13-12 SU, 11-10-1 ATS, 4-8 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions forced 20 turnovers in the victory at Indiana, where they finished the game with a 15-2 run and denied the Hoosiers a field goal over the final five minutes. D.J. Newbill, who averaged 23 points in two games against Iowa last season, leads Penn State in scoring (17.2) and Frazier is next (16.1) while topping the Big Ten with six assists per game. Brandon Taylor (37 3-pointers) and Ross Travis, who leads the team in rebounds (6.9), must give the Nittany Lions additional scoring.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Hawkeyes are third in the nation in rebounds (43.1) without anyone averaging more than 6.5.... Frazier has 608 career assists, four behind former Iowa G Jeff Horner for ninth on the Big Ten’s all-time list.... Iowa has registered at least 20 assists in seven games this season, including 22 against Michigan.... Penn State is 6-17 versus the spread in home games versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game since 1997.... The Hawkeyes are 18-6 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 498 times, while IOWA covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 686 times, while PENN ST won 290 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 509 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 491 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 14-13 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--IOWA is 18-9 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Penn St..
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IOWA is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Sat. games.
--IOWA is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
--PSU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--PSU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Over is 10-4-1 in PSU last 15 Sat. games.
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#523 TEXAS TECH @ #524 IOWA ST
(TV: 1:45 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Iowa State -10.5, Total: N/A) - Just as No. 14 Iowa State seemed to be regaining the form that saw it begin the season with 14 straight wins, it played easily its worst game of the season. After enduring their most lopsided loss in over three years, the Cyclones return home on Saturday to face Texas Tech. Iowa State downed a pair of top-25 foes during its three-game winning streak before West Virginia pounded the Cyclones 102-77 on Monday, handing Iowa State its worst defeat since a 26-point setback at Colorado in February 2011.
The Red Raiders appeared to be headed toward another long season after a conference-opening home loss to the Cyclones on Jan. 4 began a stretch in which they lost six of eight. Instead, Texas Tech has won three in a row following Wednesday’s 68-60 victory at Oklahoma in which it held the conference’s second-highest scoring offense to its lowest output of the season. “It certainly validates and confirms that we’re doing things well and doing things the right way,” Texas Tech coach Tubby Smith said following the game.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (13-11 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 5-6 Big 12): The Red Raiders scored 30 points in the paint Monday and are averaging 35.4, ahead of the school-record pace set in 1995-96 (34.3). Texas Tech’s ability to score inside has overshadowed its woes from the 3-point line during its winning streak, during which time the Red Raiders are shooting 23 percent beyond the arc. Texas Tech recorded 10 steals for the second straight contest, symbolic of a defensive effort in which Smith estimated his team generated 37-40 deflections – including 27 in the first half alone.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (18-5 SU, 10-11-0 ATS, 6-5 Big 12): The Cyclones remained the only team in Division I to score at least 70 points in every contest, but little else went right two days after conference player of the year candidate Melvin Ejim exploded for a Big 12-record 48 points against Texas Christian. Ejim managed only six points in a game coach Fred Hoiberg called “the worst effort we have had by far this season." Hoiberg told reporters after the game that his team allowed seven 3-pointers and eight layups by halftime while his offense missed nine layups and six free throws.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is the highest-scoring team in the Big 12, although Texas Tech held Oklahoma and Oklahoma State – second and third in the league in scoring, respectively – to a combined 43 points below their season averages over the last two games.... F Jaye Crockett is four steals shy of becoming the fifth Red Raider to record 1,000 points, 600 rebounds, 100 assists and 100 steals.... Cyclones freshman G Monte Morris is on pace to break the NCAA single-season record for assist-to-turnover ratio (5.21), set by Utah State’s Tyler Newbold (3.96) in 2009.... The Red Raiders are 7-1 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.... Iowa State is 0-7 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the spread 503 times, while IOWA ST covered the spread 497 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 781 times, while TEXAS TECH won 205 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 524 times, while IOWA ST covered the first half line 434 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS TECH is 12-7 against the spread versus IOWA ST since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 11-9 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 11-8 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TTU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big 12.
--TTU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 9-1 in TTU last 10 road games.
--ISU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Over is 21-5 in ISU last 26 vs. Big 12.
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#525 OKLAHOMA @ #526 OKLAHOMA ST
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Oklahoma State -2, Total: N/A) - No. 25 Oklahoma and host Oklahoma State are both skidding heading into Saturday's Bedlam rematch. Several Sooners had off nights in a 68-60 home loss to Texas Tech on Wednesday, their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have lost five straight, starting with last month's 88-76 loss to Oklahoma, to fall to eighth place in the Big 12 Conference.
The Cowboys will be without leading scorer Marcus Smart, who is serving the second of a three-game suspension after having an altercation with a Texas Tech fan last week. Center Michael Cobbins' injury, guard Stevie Clark's dismissal and Smart's absence leaves the Oklahoma State roster thin. Phil Forte started in place of Smart on Tuesday, leaving the Cowboys' available bench players averaging a combined 6.6 points.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (18-7 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 7-5 Big 12): Buddy Hield leads the fourth-place Sooners with 16.4 points but was held to single digits for just the second time this season versus Texas Tech. Ryan Spangler adds 10.4 points and 9.8 rebounds after being held to five points and four rebounds against the Red Raiders. Cameron Clark has posted back-to-back 16-point games, hitting 13-of-16 shots during that span, and averages 15.8 points.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-8 SU, 8-12-0 ATS, 4-7 Big 12): Markel Brown averages 16.7 points and Forte adds 12.2 points after scoring eight in his first start. Le'Bryan Nash, who adds 14.8 points and a team-high 5.9 rebounds, has shot 50 percent or better in his last six games and is averaging 19.5 points during that span. Kamari Murphy averages 6.1 points and 5.8 rebounds after his first double-double of the year against Texas on Tuesday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma State is facing its longest losing streak since former coach Sean Sutton's team lost six straight in January and February 2008.... The home team has won the past 10 regular-season meetings since Oklahoma's last win at Oklahoma State in 2009.... Oklahoma freshman G Jordan Woodard had his hot streak snapped - 15 points and 6.2 assists over his previous five games - with a two-point, one-assist performance against Texas Tech.... The Sooners are 33-55 versus the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Cowboys are 2-12 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 666 times, while OKLAHOMA covered the spread 302 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 725 times, while OKLAHOMA won 253 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 593 times, while OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 360 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA is 19-16 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 19-17 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--12 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 23-13 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--14 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma St.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--OKLA is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Sat. games.
--Under is 7-3 in OKLA last 10 overall.
--OKST is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
--OKST is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--Over is 14-5 in OKST last 19 Sat. games.
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#527 VA COMMONWEALTH @ #528 ST LOUIS
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Saint Louis -4.5, Total: N/A) - Saint Louis puts its 16-game winning streak on the line when it hosts Virginia Commonwealth in Saturday’s clash of the top two Atlantic 10 programs. The No. 12 Billikens have set a school mark for consecutive victories and their only losses this season have come against ranked foes Wisconsin and Wichita State. The Rams are streaking with seven victories in their last eight games and routed George Washington on Wednesday.
This is the first meeting between the teams with the other slated for March 1 in Richmond, Va. Saint Louis has had the whole week to prepare after squeaking out a road win at La Salle and has held opponents to 60 or fewer points in six of its conference victories. VCU will attempt to push the pace and is a potent scoring team, having reached 80 or more points in five of its last eight games.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (20-5 SU, 11-12-0 ATS, 8-2 Atlantic 10): Guard Rob Brandenberg (9.4) had failed to reach double digits in five of six games – including back-to-back 3-point outings – before breaking out with 15 points in the victory over George Washington. “After that Saint Joe’s game, he was called out by multiple people in our program,” coach Shaka Smart told reporters. “He could have sulked and felt sorry for himself. He stepped up.” The Rams feature three double-digit scorers in guard Treveon Graham (15.6 points, 6.9 rebounds), forward Juvonte Reddic (12.4 points, 8.3 rebounds) and guard Melvin Johnson (10.7).
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (22-2 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 9-0 Atlantic 10): The Billikens allow just 58.8 points per game and limit opponents to 39 percent shooting from the field but also possess two potent offensive players in forward Dwayne Evans (14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds) and point guard Jordair Jett (13.2 points, 4.9 assists). Jett scored 19 of his 25 points in the second half against La Salle and ranks fifth in school history with 375 career assists. Evans ranks fourth on the career rebounding list (872) and has posted 23 career double-doubles, including five this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Saint Louis won both meetings last season, including a victory in the A-10 tournament title game.... Rams PG Briante Weber tied a season high with seven steals against George Washington and averages a nation-leading 3.8 thefts per game.... The Billikens have won 44 of their last 48 home games.... VCU is 2-12 versus the spread in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% over the last two seasons.... Saint Louis is 12-3 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 533 times, while VA COMMONWEALTH covered the spread 467 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 650 times, while VA COMMONWEALTH won 321 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 506 times, while VA COMMONWEALTH covered the first half line 494 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAINT LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus VA COMMONWEALTH since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against VA COMMONWEALTH since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against VA COMMONWEALTH since 1997.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VCU is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.
--Under is 18-8 in VCU last 26 overall.
--Under is 14-6 in VCU last 20 Sat. games.
--Under is 19-7 in SLU last 26 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in SLU last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 10-3 in SLU last 13 vs. Atlantic 10.
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#539 HOUSTON @ #540 CINCINNATI
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Cincinnati -16, Total: N/A) - Cincinnati was the victim of a thumping in its last outing and attempts to rebound and complete a season sweep of Houston when it hosts the Cougars on Saturday in American Athletic Conference play. The No. 11 Bearcats had won 15 consecutive games before being buried 76-55 by improving Southern Methodist last weekend for their first loss since mid-December. Houston ended a five-game losing streak by posting an 88-74 victory over Temple on Sunday.
The Cougars gave Cincinnati a good battle earlier this season before falling 61-60 at home on Jan. 7 and coach James Dickey remains hopeful of notching an upset win. “We know what a challenge we’ll have going into Cincinnati, but that’s why you’re in a league like this,” Dickey told reporters. “It’s a great league.” The Bearcats are 16-0 at home and are led by conference scoring leader Sean Kilpatrick, who averages 19.8 points.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (12-12 SU, 9-10-0 ATS, 4-7 AAC): Forward TaShawn Thomas averages 16.2 points and 8.8 rebounds but has occasionally been passive in games and the coaching staff urged him to be more aggressive against Temple and he responded with 25 points and nine rebounds. “There were times I was feeling selfish but I was more looking for my teammates to get off more than me,” Thomas said afterward. “If I had an open shot, I took it.” Guards Danuel House (12.9) and Jherrod Stiggers (10 per game) also average in double digits.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (22-3 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 11-1 AAC): Kilpatrick scored 22 points against SMU for his fourth 20-point outing in five games but was just 5-of-18 from the field. The senior guard is averaging 22.9 points over the last eight games and was named to the Naismith Trophy Midseason Top 30 list Thursday. Forward Justin Jackson averages 11.4 points and seven rebounds to go with 79 blocked shots while forward Titus Rubles (6.3 rebounds, 22 blocks) also fares well on the boards and defensive end.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cincinnati has won the last 11 meetings and 23 of 24 overall.... Kilpatrick is 61 points away from joining legendary Oscar Robertson (2,973 from 1957-60) as the only Bearcats to reach 2,000 career points.... Stiggers is averaging 17 points over the last two games after a four-game slump in which he averaged 4.3 points on 6-of-32 shooting.... The Bearcats are 5-16 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Houston is 6-17 versus the spread in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 496 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 875 times, while HOUSTON won 111 times. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 566 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 385 times. *EDGE against first half line =HOUSTON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 5-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 8-0 straight up against HOUSTON since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 7-1 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--HOU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 11-5 in HOU last 16 overall.
--CIN is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--Under is 40-11 in CIN last 51 overall.
--Under is 40-12 in CIN last 52 home games.
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#547 N CAROLINA ST @ #548 SYRACUSE
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Syracuse -14, Total: N/A) - When the vice president of the United States is on the phone, it's clear that something historic is happening. Tyler Ennis received a call from Joe Biden on Thursday, one day after preserving Syracuse's undefeated season with a 35-foot buzzer-beater against Pittsburgh, and will look to somehow author an encore performance Saturday when he leads the top-ranked Orange against visiting North Carolina State. "Tyler came up with a play to go down in history," said Syracuse senior C.J. Fair, who scored five points in the final two minutes to set up the freshman's heroics. "That was a big shot.'
The Wolfpack, meanwhile, have won five of their last six games following a three-game slide. The team's hot stretch has included a four-point victory over Florida State, a one-point win against Miami and a two-point overtime triumph against Georgia Tech. T.J. Warren, the leading scorer in the ACC, has been particularly outstanding over his last five games, including a career-best performance his last time out.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (16-8 SU, 10-10-1 ATS, 6-5 ACC): Since missing a game due to a sprained ankle, Warren (23.1 points, 7.4 rebounds) has posted an average of 26.4 points and 7.6 boards over his last five contests. Warren has shot 58.4 percent during that stretch, including a 15-of-26 performance en route to a career-high 34 points in Tuesday's 15-point win over Wake Forest. One area in which Warren does not excel is 3-point shooting, as the sophomore has connected on 29.1 percent of his long-range attempts this season, right near the Wolfpack's team average of 30 percent.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (24-0 SU, 13-6-1 ATS, 11-0 ACC): The 58-56 win over Pittsburgh gave Syracuse its 24th straight victory - a new school record - as the team erased a six-point deficit in the final two minutes. The Orange won despite the absence of center Baye Moussa Keita, a stalwart in the middle of Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense, and the senior's status is up in the air for Saturday. The Orange played only six guys against the Panthers, but fortunately Fair (16.7 points, 5.8 rebounds) and Ennis (11.9 points, 5.6 assists) - two of the front-runners for ACC Player of the Year - were two of them.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ennis had two turnovers against Pittsburgh and has committed two or fewer in 23 of Syracuse's 24 games.... Among the Wolfpack's top seven scorers, only two - Warren (52.1) and Jordan Vandenberg (74.6) have shot above 43 percent from the field this season.... Orange G Trevor Cooney is 17-of-29 from 3-point range over his last four games.... The Wolfpack are 11-3 versus the spread in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Orange are 6-0 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the spread 506 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 851 times, while NC STATE won 135 times. In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the first half line 552 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 402 times. *EDGE against first half line =NC STATE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 2-2 against the spread versus NC STATE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 3-1 straight up against NC STATE since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NC STATE is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NCST is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 Sat. games.
--Over is 4-1 in NCST last 5 overall.
--Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--SYR is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 10-2 in SYR last 12 overall.
--Under is 9-2 in SYR last 11 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#563 TCU @ #564 KANSAS
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Kansas -23, Total: N/A) - No. 7 Kansas probably doesn't have much to worry about from visiting Texas Christian on Saturday, but Jayhawks coach Bill Self knows his team can't underestimate the last-place Horned Frogs. "They're going to beat somebody," Self said during a Thursday press conference. "I honestly believe that. They're much improved over last year. Last year they beat us and beat Oklahoma both, handily. They'll get one." TCU has lost 11 straight and has been outscored (minus-16.5) and outrebounded (minus-14.7) by double digits in Big 12 Conference play.
Joel Embiid's status is up in the air after the 7-foot Kansas freshman spent the week resting his sore back and knee. Embiid's production has dropped in the last three games but MRIs this week showed no structural damage. Self said if Embiid doesn't practice Friday, he probably won't play against TCU.
•ABOUT TCU (9-14 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 0-11 Big 12): Kyan Anderson continues to be the bright spot in the Horned Frogs' struggling offense, averaging a team-high 16.3 points after scoring at least 20 points in four of his last six games. Amric Fields has scored in double figures in 13 of his 16 appearances and averages 13.6 points and 6.1 rebounds. The Horned Frogs are ranked last in the Big 12 - and near the bottom of the national rankings - in scoring, field-goal percentage and rebounding.
•ABOUT KANSAS (18-6 SU, 12-11-1 ATS, 9-2 Big 12): Freshman Andrew Wiggins leads the first-place Jayhawks with 16 points and Perry Ellis adds 13.2 points along with 6.8 rebounds per game. Ellis has had two double-doubles in the past three games for Kansas, which is 9-2 at home. Embiid averages 10.7 points, a team-high 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 22.3 minutes but has been limited to 7.5 points in 17.3 minutes the past three contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas has beaten TCU in back-to-back games, including January's 91-69 win, after losing to the Horned Frogs in their first meeting as conference foes last year.... TCU has only outrebounded an opponent once (Texas Tech by 26-24) during Big 12 play.... Kansas senior reserve F Justin Wesley plays Wilt Chamberlain in a movie about the cultural impact of basketball on the city of Lawrence, Kan., during the start of the civil rights movement. "Jayhawkers," directed by Kansas faculty member Kevin Willmott, debuted at the Lied Center of Kansas on Friday.... TCU is 8-18 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the spread 596 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 366 times. *EDGE against the spread =TCU. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 916 times, while TCU won 75 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 657 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 343 times. *EDGE against first half line =TCU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS is 4-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--KANSAS is 5-1 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TCU is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TCU is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Sat. games.
--TCU is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 4-0 in TCU L4 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 7-1 in KU last 8 overall.
--Over is 7-1 in KU last 8 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 8-0 in KU last 8 Sat. games.
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#585 MARYLAND @ #586 DUKE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -13.5, Total: N/A) - Maryland is moving to the Big Ten next season, but before it leaves the ACC it will have to make one final trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium to visit Duke on Saturday. The Terrapins had more success than most teams in the legendary arena during the Gary Williams era, though little of late. The Blue Devils will be a well-rested squad in search of their third straight win after a rivalry game at North Carolina on Wednesday was postponed due to snow.
Duke could not even make it the 11 miles to the North Carolina campus on Wednesday and will have to endure a busy stretch with the rescheduled contest sandwiched into next week between a trip to Georgia Tech and a visit from top-ranked Syracuse. The influx of teams into the ACC this season means that the Blue Devils will face the Terrapins only once during the regular season before waving goodbye to the longtime rivals, and the postponement gives them a full week off since an easy win at Boston College. Maryland is just 1-5 on the road in conference play.
•ABOUT MARYLAND (14-11 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 6-6 ACC): The Terrapins put up a fight before fading in the second half of a 61-53 loss at Virginia on Monday, two days after putting up 83 points on one of the best defensive teams in the ACC in a win over Florida State. Seth Allen went for a career-high 32 points in the victory over the Seminoles and had 15 against the Cavaliers on 7-of-14 shooting. The difference came from beyond the arc, where Allen went 7-of-10 against Florida State before slumping to 1-of-6 two days later. The sophomore guard is shooting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season.
•ABOUT DUKE (19-5 SU, 16-8-0 ATS, 8-3 ACC): The Blue Devils know a few things about getting hot from 3-point range and lead the ACC with a 3-point field-goal percentage of 42. Duke went 11-of-21 from beyond the arc in last Saturday’s 89-68 win at Boston College but freshman Jabari Parker did not need any 3-pointers to post season highs of 29 points and 16 rebounds. Parker got off to a slow start in ACC play but is coming on strong of late with 21 or more points in three of the last four contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Maryland has not won at Cameron Indoor Stadium since Feb. 28, 2007.... The Blue Devils are beginning a stretch of five games in 11 days that includes the rescheduled trip to North Carolina.... Terrapins F Evan Smotrycz is struggling to 3-of-17 from the field over the last two games.... The Blue Devils are 12-3 versus the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Maryland is 7-0 against the spread off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 601 times, while MARYLAND covered the spread 399 times. *EDGE against the spread =DUKE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 872 times, while MARYLAND won 115 times. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 492 times, while MARYLAND covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 21-17 against the spread versus MARYLAND since 1997.
--DUKE is 27-12 straight up against MARYLAND since 1997.
--19 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MARYLAND is 21-17 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--20 of 36 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MD is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--Over is 43-20 in MD last 63 Sat. games.
--Over is 43-20 in MD last 63 Saturday games.
--DUKE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--DUKE is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 5-1 in DUKE last 6 Saturday games.
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#621 LOYOLA MARYMOUNT @ #622 GONZAGA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Root Sports - Line: Gonzaga -17.5, Total: N/A) - While No. 24 Gonzaga has other players capable of taking it deep into the NCAA Tournament, its success could ultimately ride on the shoulders of sophomore Przemek Karnowski. The 7-1 center hopes to build on the momentum of one of the top offensive games of his career as the Bulldogs try to get closer to their 13th West Coast Conference regular-season championship in the last 14 years when they host last-place Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Gonzaga has won 24 straight home games and 27 WCC contests in a row at the McCarthey Athletic Center and leads second-place Saint Mary's by three games with five WCC contests to play.
Karnowski had 17 points and seven rebounds in the Bulldogs' 83-68 victory over Pepperdine on Thursday, and while Gonzaga's strength lies in its backcourt, a stronger presence down low will help when March rolls around. “I thought he was really good in the second half. I challenged him a little bit at halftime ... ," coach Mark Few told the school website about Karnowski, who scored seven straight points during a decisive 13-2 run. The Lions have lost five straight and 11 of their last 12 contests following a 71-64 setback at Portland on Thursday, and have dropped eight in a row against Gonzaga.
•ABOUT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT (11-15 SU, 8-17-0 ATS, 3-11 WCC): The Lions have only seven scholarship players because of injuries, but senior Anthony Ireland (team-best averages of 18.4 points and 5.5 assists) has never missed a game as he puts the final touches on his stellar career. The 5-10 guard has scored 2,054 career points in a school-record 123 games and is seven points shy of moving into third on Loyola Marymount's all-time scoring list ahead of Forrest McKenzie, and behind the late Hank Gathers (2,490) and Terrell Lowery (2,201). Freshmen Evan Pane (15 points) and Gabe Levin (11 points, team-high 7.3 rebounds) are the other key cogs offensively.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (22-4 SU, 12-11-1 ATS, 12-1 WCC): Few called Thursday's game a workmanlike performance as his team prepares for the NCAA Tournament despite playing inferior competition. The Bulldogs, though, play their final four regular-season games on the road - including contests at Saint Mary's and third-place Brigham Young, so that should toughen them up a bit prior to the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. A concern for Gonzaga is the health of junior guard Kevin Pangos (team-best 15.1 points per game), who has dealt with a turf toe issue for most of the season and a nagging ankle injury which he re-aggravated during practice last week.
•PREGAME NOTES: Saturday will mark the final home game for the Bulldogs' Sam Dower Jr., Drew Barham, Brian Bhaskar and David Stockton, son of Basketball Hall of Famer John Stockton.... Dower (14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds per game) was held to seven points Thursday, snapping a streak of 10 contests in double figures in which he averaged 17.4 points.... Gonzaga has won 37 of the last 39 meetings dating to 1996 after the teams split the first 42 encounters.... The Lions are 12-3 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.... The Bulldogs are 7-0 versus the spread when playing with one or less days rest this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the spread 521 times, while LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 916 times, while LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT won 63 times. In 1000 simulated games, LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT covered the first half line 544 times, while GONZAGA covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GONZAGA is 22-16 against the spread versus LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 35-3 straight up against LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT since 1997.
--15 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 19-18 versus the first half line when playing against GONZAGA since 1997.
--15 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Gonzaga.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LMU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--LMU is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
--LMU is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 vs. West Coast.
--Under is 36-13-3 in GONZ last 52 Sat. games.
--Under is 36-14-2 in GONZ last 52 home games.
--Under is 38-13-1 in GONZ last 52 vs. West Coast.
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#627 AIR FORCE @ #628 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 8:05 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: San Diego State -17, Total: N/A) - San Diego State looks to move past its first loss in nearly three months on Saturday when the fifth-ranked Aztecs host Air Force, which just ended a six-game losing skid. The Aztecs had their school-record tying streak of 20 straight wins snapped with Tuesday’s 68-62 loss at Wyoming, which shot 58 percent against the Mountain West’s top scoring defense. San Diego State leads the league by one game over New Mexico, which faces the Aztecs twice in the final three weeks of the regular season.
The Aztecs are sure to drop in the national rankings following the Wyoming loss, but coach Steve Fisher expects his team will return to form against Air Force. “We’ve got veteran leadership and we’ve got high character kids,” Fisher told U-T San Diego. “Hopefully we’ll learn from it and go on another long winning streak.” Guard Xavier Thames, a leading Mountain West player of the year candidate, needs a bounce-back performance after shooting 3-of-16 against Wyoming, including 0-for-8 from 3-point range.
•ABOUT AIR FORCE (10-13 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 4-8 Mountain West): The Falcons held San Jose State to 30.2 percent shooting Wednesday and edged the Spartans 51-48 for their first victory in nearly a month. Leading scorer Tre' Coggins returned to the starting lineup for the first time since serving a three-game suspension and finished with three points on 1-of-12 shooting. Coggins, averaging 16.8 points while shooting 47.1 percent from the field, made five 3-pointers and scored 29 points in the Falcons’ 79-72 loss to the Aztecs on Jan. 12.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (21-2 SU, 12-8-0 ATS, 10-1 Mountain West): The Aztecs’ dynamic frontcourt has become even stronger in recent weeks with the emergence of forward Dwayne Polee II, who made three 3-pointers and scored 15 points against Wyoming. Polee was one of the few bright spots against the Cowboys, whose zone defense frustrated Thames and forced 13 turnovers. The Aztecs’ frontline includes forwards Winston Shepard (12.8 points, five rebounds) and JJ O’Brien, who had 18 points and 11 rebounds in last month’s matchup with the Falcons.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Diego State has won 10 of the last 12 games against Air Force and leads the all-time series 49-22.... Air Force is 4-80 against ranked opponents in program history.... The Aztecs are 41-1 since Feb. 10, 2010 when scoring at least 76 points.... The Falcons are 41-23 versus the spread as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points, including 16-5 ATS as a road underdog of 15.5 to 18 points since 1997.... San Diego State is 56-35 against the spread versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, AIR FORCE covered the spread 500 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 906 times, while AIR FORCE won 83 times. In 1000 simulated games, AIR FORCE covered the first half line 590 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 410 times. *EDGE against first half line =AIR FORCE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 19-14 against the spread versus AIR FORCE since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 21-12 straight up against AIR FORCE since 1997.
--13 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 19-14 versus the first half line when playing against AIR FORCE since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Falcons are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in San Diego St.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 8-0 in AFA last 8 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in AFA last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 8-0 in AFA last 8 vs. Mountain West.
--Under is 20-6 in SDSU last 26 overall.
--Under is 13-3 in SDSU last 16 home games.
--Under is 12-4 in SDSU last 16 vs. Mountain West.
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#635 OHIO ST @ #636 ILLINOIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Ohio State -4.5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State begins a stretch of five straight games against teams sitting lower in the Big Ten standings with a visit to last-place Illinois on Saturday night. The 20th-ranked Buckeyes saw their three-game winning streak end with a 70-60 loss to Michigan at home Tuesday and face an Illinois squad which has dropped nine of its last 10 after a 2-0 league start. Ohio State beat the Fighting Illini 62-55 on Jan. 23 at home and leads the league in least points allowed per contest (59.3).
Illinois averaged 79 points in two wins to open the Big Ten campaign and averaged 58.9 since to drop to 11th out of 12 teams in the league in scoring and field goal percentage. The Buckeyes won their last two games on the road against No. 21 Wisconsin and No. 15 Iowa. Ohio State’s LaQuinton Ross had 18 points in the victory over Illinois last month and recorded 24 on Tuesday.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (19-6 SU, 12-12-0 ATS, 6-6 Big Ten): The Buckeyes allowed 70 or more points for only the fourth time this season against Michigan to stall their momentum, but they remain confident. “We have a tough group of guys,” Ross told the Columbus Dispatch after the loss. “Guys will be down about it tonight, but we’ve got to look forward.” Ross leads the team in scoring (14.6), followed by Lenzell Smith Jr. (12) while point guard Aaron Craft stirs the pot for Ohio State, averaging 9.3 points, 4.7 assists and 2.5 steals.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (14-11 SU, 9-11-4 ATS, 3-9 Big Ten): Guard Rayvonte Rice has been a bright spot during a rough stretch for the Fighting Illini, reaching 20 points in three of the last five games while leading the team in scoring (16.8) and rebounding (6.0) at 6-4. Illinois’ only win during its slump came Feb. 9 at Penn State, but followed that up with a 67-58 loss at Nebraska on Wednesday. Joseph Bertrand, 2-of-8 shooting the last two games, had 19 points against Ohio State and Jon Ekey’s last double-figure game (11) was against the Buckeyes.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State C Amir Williams leads the league in field goal percentage at 61.8 and paces the Buckeyes in rebounding (6.2).... Illinois G Tracy Abrams, who is second on the team in scoring at 11.1 per game, is 2-of-17 from the field in the last three contests.... Craft boasts 310 career steals, second all time in the Big Ten behind former Illinois standout Bruce Douglas (324 from 1983-86).... The Illini are 13-24 versus the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last two seasons.... The Buckeyes are 12-3 against the spread after a game committing eight or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ILLINOIS covered the spread 550 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 450 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 582 times, while ILLINOIS won 386 times. In 1000 simulated games, ILLINOIS covered the first half line 540 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 16-13 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 18-13 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1997.
--14 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 18-12 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--OSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 11-3 in OSU last 14 Sat. games.
--ILL is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--ILL is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Sat. games.
--Over is 7-2 in ILL last 9 home games.
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#637 W VIRGINIA @ #638 TEXAS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Longhorn Network - Line: Texas -6, Total: N/A) - Texas is moving up the Big 12 standings and is coming off a convincing home victory over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. West Virginia, which visits the 19th-ranked Longhorns on Saturday, demolished a ranked opponent in Iowa State on Monday and has taken four of five to make its way back toward the NCAA Tournament bubble. A road triumph against a ranked Texas squad would certainly improve the Mountaineers’ position.
West Virginia put a 102-77 whipping on the 14th-ranked Cyclones on Monday as Remi Dibo stepped up with six 3-pointers to join Juwan Staten, Eron Harris and Terry Henderson with at least 16 points apiece in a strong offensive effort. The Mountaineers will have a more difficult time putting up points against the Longhorns, who lead the Big 12 in defensive field-goal percentage (.397) and have held seven of their last nine opponents under 70 points. That stretch includes an 80-69 triumph at West Virginia on Jan. 13.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (15-10 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 7-5 Big 12): Staten scored 23 points on 9-of-14 shooting but the rest of the team struggled to 30.9 percent shooting in the loss to Texas, with Henderson and Harris combining to go 1-of-13 from 3-point range. That setback came during a stretch of four losses in five games that seemed to knock the Mountaineers out of contention before the recent turn of fortune. West Virginia posted some big offensive numbers in wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma earlier this month but put everything together on that end against Iowa State, including a 13-of-22 effort from 3-point range.
•ABOUT TEXAS (19-5 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 8-3 Big 12): The Longhorns were missing leading scorer Jonathan Holmes on Tuesday but Javan Felix picked up the slack with 27 points on 9-of-14 shooting, including 6-of-8 from beyond the arc. The sophomore guard was 6-of-24 from 3-point range over his previous five games but got help from a sagging defense and confidence from his teammates. “I know I can make those shots and it’s just a matter of me taking them,” Felix told reporters. “That’s something my teammates got on me about, about stopping passing up shots.” Felix put up 19 points in the Jan. 13 meeting.
•PREGAME NOTES: Staten’s 19 points against Iowa State snapped a string of three straight games reaching at least 20. He had 23 in the first meeting with Texas.... The Mountaineers lead the Big 12 in turnover margin at plus-3.72 while the Longhorns struggle in the category at minus-0.12.... Texas suffered a 57-53 overtime loss at home to West Virginia last season.... The Mountaineers are 26-13 versus the spread off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997.... The Longhorns are 16-28 against the spread as a favorite, and 15-27 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 617 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 356 times. *EDGE against the spread =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS won the game straight up 505 times, while W VIRGINIA won 463 times. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 576 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 380 times. *EDGE against first half line =W VIRGINIA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 3-2 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--TEXAS is 3-2 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WVU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
--WVU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--Over is 16-5 in WVU last 21 vs. Big 12.
--TEX is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Sat. games.
--Over is 9-3 in TEX last 12 Sat. games.
--Over is 13-5 in TEX last 18 home games.
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#647 FLORIDA @ #648 KENTUCKY
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -3, Total: N/A) - Florida can take a big step toward defending its SEC regular-season title Saturday night when the No. 4 Gators travel to No. 13 Kentucky. Florida heads into the showdown with a two-game lead over the Wildcats with seven games remaining, including a rematch with visiting Kentucky in the regular-season finale March 8. The Gators also remain in position to join the Wildcats as the only teams to finish unbeaten in SEC play.
Kentucky upset the visiting Gators in their last meeting in March, a 61-57 victory that came a month after the Wildcats fell to the host Gators and lost starting center Nerlens Noel to a season-ending knee injury in the process. Florida enters this game on a 16-game winning streak and one of its most valuable players has been point guard Scottie Wilbekin, who won’t light up the stat sheet on the offensive end but is one of the top on-ball defenders in the SEC. Kentucky has won four in a row and can match its longest win streak of the season with another victory
•ABOUT FLORIDA (22-2 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 11-0 SEC): Patric Young will move into a tie for eighth for the most games played at Florida (136) when he takes the floor against Kentucky. He may have made the hustle play of the year in Tuesday’s win at Tennessee, sprinting for a loose ball under his own basket and diving between two opponents before saving it to a teammate just before sliding out of bounds. The 22-year-old Young should be able to take advantage of his matchup against 7-0 freshman Dakari Johnson, who turned 18 in September.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (19-5 SU, 11-9-2 ATS, 9-2 SEC): Many expected Willie Cauley-Stein to continue in his starting role after he took over for Noel following his injury last season, but Johnson stole the job in the preseason and the 7-foot Cauley-Stein hasn’t done much to prove he belongs with the starting five. Cauley-Stein has been held to single digits in eight of the last nine games, scoring three points or less in five of those contests. Wednesday’s game against Auburn was typical of his recent play as he finished with five points and six rebounds in 20 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators will be trying to snap an opponent's home-winning streak of at least 20 games for the second time this season after ending Arkansas’ 25-game streak with an overtime win Jan. 14.... Florida’s program record for consecutive wins is 17, accomplished three times.... Kentucky has started five freshmen in the last three games and are 4-0 this season with that lineup.... Florida is 13-28 versus the spread versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 12 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Wildcats are 7-18 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA covered the spread 496 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 569 times, while FLORIDA won 403 times. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA covered the first half line 518 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 482 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 17-17 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 22-14 straight up against FLORIDA since 1997.
--20 of 33 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 20-16 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Kentucky.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 24-8-1 in FLA last 33 overall.
--Under is 10-2 in FLA last 12 Sat. games.
--Under is 16-5-1 in FLA last 22 vs. Southeastern.
--UK is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 5-2-1 in UK last 8 overall.
--Under is 5-2-1 in UK last 8 vs. Southeastern.
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