Saturday 12/20/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**

-- The Mountain West and Sun Belt Conferences will be represented Saturday in the Crescent City, where Nevada and UL-Lafayette will collide for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. This game features a pair of record-setting quarterbacks who will be closing out their collegiate careers.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, the line was all over the place at various betting shops. Some books had one team favored by one, while others had the side as a pick 'em. The total for 'over/under' wagers is 60.5 or 61.

-- Nevada (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) won four of its last six games both SU and ATS, including a 49-27 win at UNLV in the regular-season finale at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Wolf Pack easily covered the spread as a 7.5-point road favorite, while the 76 combined points sailed 'over' the 62.5-point total. Cody Fajardo was the catalyst, accounting for four touchdowns. The senior signal caller threw three TD passes compared to one interception. Fajardo ran 13 times for 143 yards and one TD. After the Rebels cut the deficit to 21-20 midway through the third quarter, Nevada responded with 28 consecutive points. Fajardo hit Kendall Brock for a three-yard scoring strike to make it 28-20 and a few plays later, the Wolf Pack went up 35-20 on a pick-six by Lenny Jones.

-- Fajardo is one of only two QBs in FBS history (the other being fellow Nevada alum Colin Kaepernick) to throw for more than 6,000 yards and rush for more than 3,000. Fajardo ranks No. 21 in all-time total yardage and can move into 16th place with 208 yards of offense against UL-Lafayette.

-- UL Lafayette (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won seven of its last eight games, producing a 5-1-1 spread record in its last seven outings. The Ragin' Cajuns finished the regular season by cruising to a 42-23 win at Troy as 9.5-point road favorites. Elijah McGuire rushed for 169 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries, while Alonzo Harris ran 17 times for 86 yards and three TDs. Terrance Broadway connected on 14-of-19 throws for 142 yards and also ran for 78 yards on 14 totes.

-- Mark Hudspeth's squad has finished its season in this bowl game in all four years of his tenure. The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-0 both SU and ATS at the Superdome in the first postseason appearances in the school's history. They have beaten San Diego St. (32-30), East Carolina (43-34) and Tulane (24-21).

-- Broadway was the MVP of the 2012 New Orleans Bowl as a sophomore. As a senior this season, he completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards with a 12/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Broadway also rushed for 646 yards and three scores.

-- UL-Lafayette has a pair of outstanding RBs in McGuire and Harris. McGuire ran for 1,165 yards and 14 TDs this season, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. Harris rushed for 737 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 4.6 YPC.

-- Fajardo completed 59.7 percent of his throws this season for 2,370 yards and an 18/11 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for a team-best 997 yards and 13 TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. Jerico Richardson is his favorite target, hauling in 53 receptions for 626 yards and three TDs. When Fajardo isn't toting the rock himself, Don Jackson gets the bulk of the carries. Jackson rushed for 932 yards and seven scores during the regular season.

-- Nevada has lost six of its last seven bowl games. The last victory came in 2010 when the Wolf Pack beat Boston College 20-13 at the Kraft Hunger Bowl. It missed the postseason in 2013 in its first season under head coach Brian Polian, who is the son of former Colts team President Bill Polian.

-- The 'under' is 8-4 overall for Nevada, with its games averaging 59.5 points per game.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Ragin' Cajuns, who have seen their games average a combined score of 58.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**UTEP vs. Utah State**

-- The second bowl game on Saturday's slate pits UTEP vs. Utah St. in the New Mexico Bowl from Albuquerque. As of Thursday, most books had Utah St. (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 46. Gamblers can back the Miners on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

-- After going 2-10 in Sean Kugler's first season since taking over for the retired Mike Price, UTEP (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS) is in the postseason for the first time since getting thumped 52-24 to BYU at the 2010 New Mexico Bowl. The Miners have won five of their last seven games, going 6-1 ATS in the process. They have gone 4-3 ATS in seven games as underdogs, posting a 3-2 spread record in five double-digit 'dog situations.

-- Utah St. had another stellar campaign despite a myriad of injuries, including nine season-enders to starters. First, the Aggies lost one of their best defensive players in Kyler Fackrell when he tore his ACL in September. Fackrell had 82 tackles and five sacks as a sophomore in 2013. Next, star senior QB Chuckie Keeton tore his ACL (again) and was lost for the year. Then Utah St. lost its second and third-string QBs to injuries. Nevertheless, Matt Wells's squad won each of true freshman Kent Myers's first four starts.

-- Utah St. was on a five-game winning streak going into its regular-season finale at Boise St. on the smurf turf. A victory would've garnered a trip to the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but that berth went to the Broncos after they dealt out a 50-19 beating to the Aggies. BSU easily covered the number as a 10-point home 'chalk.' The Utah St. defense got blitzed by Jay Ajayi for 229 rushing yards and five TDs. Myers threw for 158 yards and was intercepted once. He ran for 43 yards and one TD.

-- Myers has made five starts and seen playing time in six games. He has completed 69.2 percent of his throws for 798 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Myers has rushed for 235 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

-- Utah St. LB Zach Vigil earned Mtn. West Defensive Player of the Year honors after recording 145 tackles (19.5 for loss) and nine sacks.

-- Vigil will be keying on UTEP RB Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 2,552 yards in his first two seasons for the Miners. Jones ran for 1,236 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

-- UTEP quarterback Jameill Showers connected on 55.7 percent of his passes for 1,732 yards with a 12/5 TD-INT ratio. Showers also rushed for 288 yards and four scores.

-- Utah St. is going bowling for a fourth straight season. The Aggies beat No. Illinois by a 21-14 count in a pick 'em affair at last year's Poinsettia Bowl. They smashed Toledo 41-15 as 10.5-point favorites at the 2012 Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue carpet.

-- Utah St. ranks 21st nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 20.8 PPG.

-- The 'over' is 7-6 overall for the Aggies, hitting in back-to-back games and four of their last six.

-- The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for the Miners to improve to 7-5 overall for the season. Their games have averaged a combined score of 57.0 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 2:20 p.m. Eastern.

**Utah vs. Colorado State**

-- The Mtn. West and Pac-12 will be represented in Sin City for Saturday's Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl. Utah and Colorado St. both had outstanding seasons that will culminate at Sam Boyd Stadium. However, CSU won't have its head coach Jim McElwain, who left to take the Florida job vacated when Will Muschamp was fired.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Utah listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Gamblers can back the Rams to win outright for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

-- Colorado St. (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is gunning for the second 11-win season in school history. Dave Baldwin, the team's offensive coordinator, will serve as the Rams' interim head coach. He was previously a head coach at San Jose St. and is hoping a bowl victory can bolster his candidacy to remain at CSU as head coach.

-- Utah (8-4 SU, 8-4 SU) is back in the postseason after going 5-7 in consecutive years. The Utes won all three of their non-conference games, including a 26-10 win over Michigan at The Big House. Kyle Whittingham's team won a pair of Pac-12 road games over Stanford and UCLA as a double-digit underdog. Utah also had a solid home win over Southern Cal and prevailed in overtime at Oregon St. The Utes went 5-1 ATS on the road, dropping a 19-16 decision at Arizona St. in overtime.

-- Utah's only non-cover on the road came in its regular-season finale when it escaped Boulder with a 38-34 win over Colorado as a seven-point road 'chalk.' Dominique Hatfield's pick-six with 10 minutes remaining provided the winning points. QB Travis Wilson threw for 311 yards and three TDs without being intercepted, while Devontae Booker rushed 25 times for 95 yards and one score. Kaelin Clay had 10 receptions for 88 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Utah has been a single-digit favorite three times, going 1-2 ATS. Meanwhile, CSU has compiled a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in three games as an underdog. The Rams won outright at Boston College and vs. Colorado in Denver.

-- Wilson threw for 2,012 yards with a 17/4 TD-INT ratio. After losing one of his top targets Dres Anderson to a season-ending injury in late October, Clay began to pick up his production. He finished the regular season with 39 catches for 460 yards and four TDs. Booker rushed for 1,350 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. He also had 39 receptions for 282 yards and two TDs. Clay has also scored three TDs on special-teams returns.

-- CSU is led by senior QB Garrett Grayson, who set all sorts of school records during a brilliant year. Grayson completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,779 yards with a 32/6 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is one of the nation's best WRs, Rashard Higgins, who had 89 receptions for 1,640 yards and 17 TDs. Dee Hart, a transfer from Alabama, rushed for a team-high 1,254 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.7 YPC.

-- After losing 37-24 at Boise St. in Week 2, CSU went on a nine-game winning streak that got snapped in a gut-wrenching loss at Air Force in the regular-season finale. The Falcons captured a 27-24 win as 7.5-point home underdogs thanks to a Will Conant 39-yard field goal as time expired. Grayson threw for 366 yards and three TDs, while Hart rushed for 115 yards on 23 carries. Higgins had 12 catches for 193 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Utah's defense is led by DE Nate Orchard, who set a school record with 17.5 sacks during the regular season.

-- The 'under' is on a 7-2-1 run in Utah's last 10 games and is 7-4-1 overall.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Rams, but they saw the 'over' go 4-1 in their last five games.

-- These schools are former conference rivals from the MWC. Before Utah bolted for the Pac-12 from 2005-2010, the Utes won five in a row over the Rams and cashed tickets at a 4-1 ATS clip.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:50 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book I - Capping Thy Coaches
By JASON LOGAN

The names are different but the situations stay the same.

Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.

We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.

BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES

One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Steve Merril.

Wisconsin is one team undergoing a transformation in the coaching department. The Badgers were stunned when Gary Andersen decided to leave Madison for Oregon State, putting the team and its Outback Bowl battle with Auburn (Wisconsin is a 6.5-point underdog) in the hands of Barry Alvarez.

This is familiar territory for Alvarez, who stepped in for the departed Bret Bielema in 2012 and coached Wisconsin to a loss versus Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers are coming off a terrible loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and are dealing with another punch to the stomach following Anderson’s departure. These letdowns could be a lot for Wisconsin to overcome as a program.

Another school swapping out head coaches is Florida, which canned Will Muschamp after another disappointing season. The Gators fired Muschamp following a Week 12 loss to South Carolina and left the team in the hands of defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin.

The team rallied around Durkin, going 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS including a near upset of Florida State in the finale. Programs are courting Durkin and a solid performance versus East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl on Jan. 3 could help him land a new gig. The Gators are touchdown favorites over the Pirates.

The situation is a little different for another Florida program bowling after a down year. The Miami Hurricanes, coming off a 6-6 campaign, are 3-point favorites over South Carolina in the Independence Bowl on Dec, 27.

Head coach Al Golden has been the target of animosity from the Coral Gables faithful heading into bowl season, but the athletics department has given Golden the vote of confidence. Players have also come to Golden’s aid, and could hold his job in their hands this postseason. The ax may not fall right away but if push comes to shove, one of the first things an AD will do is size up a coach’s bowl record. Golden lost to Louisville in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl, 36-9, as a 5.5-point underdog. He’s only been to two bowls in four years at Miami despite being eligible each season.

Here are teams undergoing changes at head coach this bowl season: Colorado State, Florida, Houston, Nebraska, Wisconsin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book II - Motivation
By JASON LOGAN

BOOK 2: DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION

Bowl season is many things to many teams.

To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.

“Which teams are just happy to be playing in a bowl and which ones are serious about winning?,” says Sean Murphy. “It is important not to write off teams that are disappointed by the bowl game they've drawn, as sometimes that perceived snub can result in a team playing with a big chip on their shoulder and can serve as a motivating factor.”

No bigger snub was dished out this bowl season than that of the Big 12 when it came to the Final Four teams for the first ever College Football Playoff. Baylor and TCU (which was ranked third in the CFB rankings heading into the final game of the season) were left out of the playoffs and handed big-name bowl matchups instead.

Baylor, which has only one loss to West Virginia and a win over TCU, settled for a showdown with Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl (BU -3). The Horned Frogs aren’t even playing on New Year’s Day, facing 9-3 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31 (TCU -3).

Bettors must determine whether or not these Big 12 programs try to prove the playoff committee wrong by rolling their bowl opponents or if they'll come out flat, disappointed with a season gone sour based on the opinion of a bunch of NCAA suits.

Alabama suffered from a major letdown in bowl season last year. The Crimson Tide were booked into the national title game until the stunning upset to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Alabama never overcame that loss or the disappointment, and was rolled by Oklahoma 45-31 as a 17-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl.

Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Art Aronson calls these “Just glad to be there” teams, and has his eye on one program in particular this bowl season.

“This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”

He points to the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and their bowl matchup with Nevada in the New Orleans Bowl, with oddmakers setting them as 1-point favorites. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 8-4 SU on the season but don’t have any notable wins on their resume and recently lost to FCS Appalachian State, 35-16 at home as 8-point favorites.

Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.

The Memphis Tigers earned a postseason showcase for the first time since 2008 after going 9-3 this season, and are 1-point favorites against BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Cougars, however, have been bowling for 10 straight years, going 6-3 SU in the previous nine postseason games, and are used to the bright lights of bowl season.

South Alabama is another program that is in unfamiliar territory. The Jaguars have cracked a bowl game for first time since jumping from the FCS to FBS six years ago, and are tagged as 2.5-point favorites versus Bowling Green in the inaugural Camellia Bowl. While they could be ripe for a letdown, South Alabama is making the two-hour drive to Montgomery and should have a strong home-field edge at the Cramton Bowl.

One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2013-14 bowl schedule finds Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl, set as a 3-point underdog to Toledo. The Red Wolves will have played in four straight GoDaddy Bowls in Mobile, Alabama, including last season’s on Jan. 5, edging Ball State 23-20 as 6.5-point underdogs. They’re 2-1 SU and ATS in their three GoDaddy Bowl appearances.

“Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become dis-interested,” notes Marc Lawrence.

Another program that may not be all that excited for its bowl matchup is San Diego State, which is set to appear in the Poinsettia Bowl for the third time in five years. The Aztecs, who are 3-point favorites versus Navy, are pretty much playing a home game in Qualcomm Stadium. These teams played in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, with SDSU winning 35-14 as a field-goal favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book III - The Waiting Game
By JASON LOGAN

BOOK III: TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY

The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is my on my side - yes it is!

All three phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and it postseason bowl appearance.

Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.

“The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre over or under-performance by teams involved,” says Steve Merril.

A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.

The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Art Aronson.

He points to the Central Florida Knights as an example. They closed the regular season with four straight victories, going 4-0 ATS in that span, but have now been sitting idle for more than three weeks (last game on Dec. 4) before facing North Carolina State as 2-point favorites in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26.

“Central Florida, which somehow managed to lose to Connecticut, gives two points to N.C. State, which played a much tougher schedule and still won three of its last four,” notes Aronson.

The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.

One program that is relishing the bowl break is Penn State. The Nittany Lions dropped their final two games of the schedule – losing to Illinois and Michigan State – and finished with 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight games.

Penn State is slated to face Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 27, giving head coach James Franklin plenty of time to study his opponent and get his players in the right frame of mind for what will be the program’s first bowl appearance since the Sandusky scandal. Not only is PSU anxious to turn the page on that ugly chapter but the time off will allow LB Brandon Bell to return from a shoulder injury. He missed the final two games of the season and is an important cog to the Nittany Lions’ running defense.

Some other programs returning key players thanks to the time off are Oklahoma and QB Trevor Knight, as well as Marshall and RB Devon Johnson.

Knight suffered a neck injury versus Baylor on Nov. 8 but with the Sooners not taking the field against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl until Dec. 29 – and Knight cleared to play – OU’s offense could be back in top form by then. He passed for 2,197 yards and 14 touchdowns before getting hurt.

The Thundering Herd should have their biggest weapon back at full strength after running back Devon Johnson was limited down the home stretch. Johnson, who rushed for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns, was nursing a bum shoulder and saw his workload trimmed significantly in the final two games of the year. Marshall is a 10-point favorite against Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl on Dec. 23.

But while the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.

Arkansas threw the book at two important members of its secondary last week, suspending corner Carroll Washington and safety Rohan Gaines for violating team policy. Both were regular rotation players for the Razorbacks defense. Arkansas is a 6-point favorite facing Texas in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 29.

These will likely not be the only suspensions handed out between now and the end of bowl season. With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.

Last season, Oregon’s top tight end Pharaoh Brown was suspended for the Alamo Bowl for his role in a snowball fight on campus. An online video captured the hijinks, which included pelting cars with snow as well as hitting a professor with snowballs and dumping snow through the car window.

On the injury front, Tennessee lost one of its top targets in wide receiver Jason Croom, who injured his knee in practice last Sunday. Croom caught 21 balls for 305 yards and was tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns. This injury is especially tough for the Volunteers, who have already lost four members of the receiving corps to injury this season. Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Jan. 2.

Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the bookmakers during the bowl break.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

76 need-to-know betting notes for 76 college football bowl teams
By KEVIN CAUSEY

With the holidays heating up, you might not have time to handicap all the college football bowl action you'd like this month. Enjoy!

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Saturday Dec. 20

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (-1, 61)

* After not going to a bowl since 1970, The Ragin’ Cajuns have been to the New Orleans Bowl three straight years and have won and covered in every game.

* Nevada is 3-1 ATS this season against non-Mountain West Conference foes and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl - Saturday Dec. 20

Utah State Aggies vs. UTEP Miners (+10, 45.5)

* Despite losing three starting QBs to injury, Utah State delivered on the defensive side of the football with the second-best scoring defense in the MWC, giving up just 20.8 ppg.

* The Miners went 6-1 ATS in their last seven games but only one of those teams (7-5 WKU) finished with a winning record. The Miners went just 1-3 ATS on the year against teams that finished with winning records.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl - Saturday Dec. 20

Colorado State Rams vs. Utah Utes (-3.5, 57.5)

* With Jim McElwain taking the Florida job, offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will step in as interim coach. The Rams were the best in the Mountain West Conference at 8-4 ATS.

* The Utes started out strong this season going 7-1 ATS in the first eight but folded down the stretch finishing 1-3 ATS. Those three SU losses came at the hands of Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon who finished with a combined record of 31-7.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Saturday Dec. 20

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons (-1.5, 56.5)

* The Broncos had a miraculous turnaround from 1-11 in 2013 to 8-4 this season but they were also tied for the best ATS record in the nation at 10-2 ATS.

* Air Force is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this season. The Falcons are used to strong non-conference foes, as the team is 24-16 SU (21-19 ATS) against non-conference foes under Terry Calhoun.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl - Saturday Dec. 20

Bowling Green Falcons vs. South Alabama Jaguars (-3, 54)

* After losing defensive coordinator Mike Elko to Wake Forest, Bowling Green went from having the best defense in the MAC last season (allowing 15.9 ppg) to giving up 33.9 ppg this year (12th in the MAC).

* The Jaguars went just 3-8-1 O/U this season. They were ranked 112th at scoring TDs in the red zone, converting on just 48.65 percent of their trips.

Miami Beach Bowl - Monday Dec. 22

BYU Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers (-1.5, 57.5)

* Since QB Taysom Hill's injury, the Cougars have not beaten a team with a winning record SU or ATS.

* Memphis won a share of the AAC title, which was its first title since 1971, and makes its first bowl game since 2008. The Tigers were the best team in the nation with 50 scores on 53 red-zone attempts.

Boca Raton Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 23

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (-10, 65)

* Northern Illinois has only been a double-digit underdog once this year and it lost that game 52-14. In fact, the last four times NIU has been a double digit underdog it has failed to cover.

* The Thundering Herd have beaten only one team that won more than 60 percent of its games this season (Louisiana Tech) and they failed to cover in that game.

San Diego CCU Poinsettia Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 23

Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-3, 54)

* San Diego State had the best defense in the MWC this year in terms of yards allowed and points allowed, going 1-11 O/U.

* Navy started the season 0-6 O/U but finished 4-0 O/U. It wasn’t able to stop teams on third down at the end of the season. During the first six games, the Middies were allowing teams to convert on 40 percent of their third downs and in their final four they allowed a 57 percent conversion rate.

Popeyes Bahama Bowl - Wednesday Dec. 24

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-4, 66)

* Central Michigan was just 2-3 ATS as an underdog but that includes one of their most impressive victories in recent memory as they beat MAC Champ NIU 34-17.

* Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty has been granted a sixth year of eligibility. The C-USA Player of the Year finished No. 1 in the FBS with 44 touchdowns and 4,344 passing yards.

Hawaii Bowl - Wednesday Dec. 24

Rice Owls vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (+2, 58.5)

* Rice is favored by one point. That's important because the Owls have covered in six straight games in which they've been single digit favorites.

* Fresno State is the only team with a losing record going bowling. The last team with a losing record to make a bowl game was Georgia Tech in 2012 and they won the infamous Sun Bowl over USC 21-7 SU and ATS.

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl - Friday Dec. 26

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+6, 59)

* The Bulldogs were one of the best teams in the nation ATS going 10-3. They improved offensively as their ppg increased year-over-year by 18.3 ppg. The addition of Iowa transfer Cody Sokol was the biggest reason for their improvement and he was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year.

* The Fighting Illini have the worst defense in the Big Ten giving up 33.9 ppg. They've only held two FBS teams under 30 points this season.

Quick Lane Bowl - Friday Dec 26, 4:30 PM

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3, 66.5)

* Rutgers has beaten only two teams with winning records this season but did cover the spread in both wins.

* North Carolina has parted ways with defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. They gave up 44 ppg and 540 ypg against non-conference foes.

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl - Friday Dec. 26

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Central Florida Knights (-2, 49.5)

* The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as their running game has really started to blossom. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 230 ypg on the ground vs. 188 in their first seven games.

* The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. In the three games they were favorites, the defense allowed an average of 4.6 ppg.

Military Bowl - Saturday Dec. 27

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (+3, 51)

* The Bearcats allowed just 117 points in the last seven weeks. Cincy has given up 30 points or more just twice in that span after having that happen four times in the opening five contests.

* Virginia Tech has just one play of 50 or more yards this season. The only team worse was Wake Forest, which beat the Hokies 6-3 in double overtime.

Hyundai Sun Bowl - Saturday Dec. 27

Duke Blue Devils vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-7.5, 66.5)

* The Blue Devils rank 18th nationally in third-down defense, 20th in scoring defense and 20th in pass efficiency defense. Duke allowed 21 points or less in nine of its 12 games this season.

* Arizona State allowed 19 sacks in November (126th in the nation) and have given up a total of 37 sacks on the year – more than three sacks allowed per game.

Duck Commander Independence Bowl - Saturday Dec. 27

Miami Hurricanes vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (+3, 61)

* Every FBS team that Miami played (except Virginia) is going to a bowl, yet its strength of schedule didn't rank in the Top 25.

* Despite having just six wins, the Gamecocks beat four bowl teams and covered the spread in three of those four contests.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Saturday Dec. 27

Boston College Eagles vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5, 40)

* Penn State linebacker Brandon Bell expects to play. Bell missed the last two regular season games with a shoulder injury. The sophomore averaged 4.3 tackles per game with two sacks and one interception in 10 contests.

* Boston College runs the ball on over 72 percent of its offensive plays and is eighth in the nation in rushing attempts per game. The Eagles are 11th in time of possession, holding on the ball an average of 33:09.92 per game and is 4-7-1 O/U.

National University Holiday Bowl - Saturday Dec. 27

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. USC Trojans (-6.5, 61.5)

* The Huskers have won their last nine games in which RB Ameer Abdullah has rushed for over 100 yards.

* Southern Cal QB Cody Kessler's TD-to-INT ratio (36:4) this season is better than Matt Barkley, Mark Sanchez, John David Booty, Matt Leinhart or Carson Palmer's best seasons.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Monday Dec. 29

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 67)

* West Virginia is 0-8 O/U in its last eight games. During this stretch, the defense has allowed 24.8 ppg. Last season, it allowed 40.3 ppg over the last eight games.

* The Aggies were 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS to start the season, outscoring opponents 221-47. Since then, Texas A&M is averaging 24 points with a 3-5 SU record and only covering once in that span.

Russell Athletic Bowl - Monday Dec. 29

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Clemson Tigers (+3, 54)

* With offensive coordinator Chad Morris off to SMU, Clemson co-coordinators Tony Elliot and Jeff Scott will share play calling duties. Before the announcement, Elliot served as the running backs coach while Scott handled the receiving coaching duties.

* Oklahoma's Samaje Perine set the FBS record with 427 yards rushing against Kansas. The Clemson defense gave up 300-plus yards on the ground to Georgia in Week 1.

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl - Monday Dec. 29

Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-6, 45.5)

* When Texas wins the turnover battle it is 6-1 with the only loss coming by three points to UCLA. When the Horns lose the turnover battle they are 0-5 SU.

* Arkansas had two 1,000-yard rushers (Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins) for the first time since 2007 when the Hogs ran wild with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.

Franklin American Music City Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 30

LSU Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7, 52.5)

* LSU is 0-5 O/U in its last five games and has averaged just 17.4 ppg in those games. In those five games, the Tigers’ QBs have completed just 47 percent of their passes and have thrown four TDs vs five INTs.

* After giving up just 50 yards rushing in a loss to Florida State, the Irish have given up an average of 244 rushing ypg in their last five games. They've gone 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in those games.

Belk Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 30

Louisville Cardinals vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 56.5)

* Georgia has been favored to win every game it’s played in this season and in two of its losses, UGA was a double-digit favorite.

* Louisville has allowed opponents to convert on just 28.25 percent of third downs. When Louisville DC Todd Grantham was at Georgia last year, his defense allowed a 39.49 third-down percentage.

Foster Farms Bowl- Tuesday Dec. 30

Stanford Cardinal vs. Maryland Terrapins (+14, 48)

* As a double-digit favorite this year, Stanford is 4-1 with the lone loss coming at the hands of Utah.

* The Terrapins have beaten just one team with a winning record this season (7-5 Iowa). Against teams with winning records they are just 1-5 ATS (with that one win coming against the Hawkeyes).

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl - Wednesday Dec. 31

Mississippi Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-3, 56.5)

* Ole Miss OL Aaron Morris will not play in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl after tearing the ACL in his left knee. The Rebels are 20-2 SU under Huge Freeze when they rush for 150 yards or more.

* Gary Patterson is 7-5 SU/4-8 ATS in bowl games. Texas Christian has failed to cover in its past five bowl matchups.

VIZIO Fiesta Bowl - Wednesday Dec. 31

Boise State Broncos vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3.5, 69.5)

* The Broncos have been held to under 20 points just twice this season (vs. Ole Miss and Air Force) and lost (and failed to cover) both games.

* The Wildcats O/U record was 1-5 away from home this season. They scored 9.6 less ppg on the road.

Capital One Orange Bowl - Wednesday Dec. 31

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6.5, 61)

* Georgia Tech is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season and has won four of those games SU.

* Mississippi State completed seven third-down conversions per game, with Dak Prescott posting a QB rating of 179.7 and throwing for 10 touchdowns on those third-down snaps. He rushed for 27 first downs on third down – tops in the SEC.

Outback Bowl - Thurs Jan. 1

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Auburn Tigers (-6.5, 62)

* Wisconsin has only been an underdog once this year and lost that game to LSU in the opener. They were favored by 4 points versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and got walloped 59-0.

* The Auburn Tigers fired DC Ellis Johnson after giving up 30 points in each of their last six games against FBS opponents.

Cotton Bowl Classic - Thurs Jan. 1

Baylor Bears vs. Michigan State Spartans (+3, 71)

* Baylor head coach Art Briles is the owner of an 89-61 career collegiate record, but is just 2-5 SU and ATS lifetime in bowl games.

* The Spartans set school single-season records for points (517), total offense (5,958 yards), offensive touchdowns (64), rushing touchdowns (40) and made point-after attempts (66).

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl - Thurs Jan. 1

Missouri Tigers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+5, 48)

* Despite winning the SEC East and playing in the SEC Championship, Missouri was only favored in six of its games this season. As a favorite the Tigers went 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS.

* The Gophers went 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They were the best red-zone team in the Big Ten scoring TDs on 73.33 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line.

Rose Bowl (Playoff semifinal) - Thurs Jan. 1

Oregon Ducks vs. Florida State Seminoles (+9.5, 71)

* This is the first time since their 2011 matchup with Clemson that Florida State comes into a game as an underdog. The Seminoles are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.

* Marcus Mariota threw five interceptions in his first seven games. Since then he's thrown just seven in his last 33 games. Heisman winners are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS during bowl season since 2009.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Playoff semifinal) - Thurs Jan. 1

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (+9.5, 58.5)

* Ohio State has been an underdog just twice this season (Michigan State and Wisconsin) and have won both SU.

* Alabama has been a single-digit favorite four time this year and in those four games the Tide have a 1-3 O/U record. Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference clashes.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl - Friday Jan. 2

Houston Cougars vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 53.5)

* After signing a five-year contract earlier this year, the Cougars fired head coach Tony Levine and defensive coordinator David Gibbs will be the interim coach for the bowl game.

* If Paul Chryst takes the Wisconsin job, as rumored, you have to wonder how the team will respond. Pitt has had four head coaches since 2012. If Chryst leaves it will make five.

TaxSlayer Bowl - Friday Jan. 2

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5, 51.5)

* The Vols lead the SEC in sacks allowed (42) and tackles for loss allowed (97). The inability to get their offense going due to negative plays is a big reason for their 6-6 SU and ATS records.

* Teams are completing 14.1 passes per game and boast a 52.7 completion percentage against Iowa. The defense has not been as strong against run, allowing 158.8 rushing yards a game on 4.3 yards per carry.

Valero Alamo Bowl - Friday Jan. 2

Kansas State Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins (Pick, 59)

* The Wildcats have only turned the ball over 11 times this year and have only lost the turnover battle in three games. They lost two of those games (vs. Auburn and TCU).

* UCLA is just 4-8 ATS this year. One of the reasons is that the Bruins have played in seven games that have been decided by 10 or less points.

TicketCity Cactus Bowl - Friday Jan. 2

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Washington Huskies (-5.5, 56)

* Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is making his ninth straight bowl appearance, going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS in those previous postseason games.

* In Chris Petersen's debut season at Washington, the Huskies didn't beat a single FBS team that finished with a winning record.

Birmingham Bowl - Saturday Jan. 3

Florida Gators vs. East Carolina Pirates (+7, 57)

* Since inserting QB Treon Harris into the starting lineup the Gators are 4-1 ATS. The offense averaged 32.6 ppg with Harris under center and 28.6 ppg without him - and that includes a 65-point explosion against EMU in their opener.

* Through their first four games, the Pirates had outscored opponents by an average of 18.5 points per game, but since then the team only has a plus-6.5 scoring margin.

GoDaddy Bowl - Sunday, Jan. 4

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Toledo Rockets (-3, 67)

* Arkansas State is a tough team to finish off with nine of its last 14 wins coming when tied or trailing in the third quarter.

* Toledo QB Logan Woodside came back from injury for the last two games of the season, including a five-touchdown performance against Eastern Michigan. At one point this season, the Rockets were down to their fourth-string QB.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rain could be on tap for Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Stephen Campbell

Inclement weather could impact Air Force-Western Michigan's clash in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Saturday.

The forecast is currently calling for a 70 percent chance of showers at kickoff. Southeast winds between 6-11 mph are expected as well.

The Falcons are listed as 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 58.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

New Orleans Bowl 12/20
UL-Lafayette has won/covered this bowl the last three years, only three bowls they've played in; they were underdog in two of three. There will be thousands of Ragin' Cajun fans there, decent home field edge. Nevada has 4-year starting QB in Fajardo; Broadway is 3-year starter. Wolf Pack lost four of last five bowls, this is first one for coach Polian. Nevada lost two of its last three games; they allowed 31+ points in all five losses this year. Four of last five New Orleans Bowls went over total. Sun Belt teams are 18-18 vs spread out of conference; MW teams are 16-22.

New Mexico Bowl 12/20
UTEP was 5-19 last two years, is happy to be in bowl, the first one for coach Kugler, who is an old OL coach. Miners like to run ball; they split last four games, are 4-3 as underdog this year. QB Showers was ahead of Manziel on A&M's depth chart at one point, but transferred. Utah State was down to its #4 QB when regular season ended; they had 5-game win streak snapped 50-19 in finale at Boise. Aggies won 9+ games last three years, winning 41-15/21-14 in last two bowls. Under is 13-4 in C-USA bowl games last three years; C-USA teams are 11-6 SU in last 17 bowls.

Las Vegas Bowl 12/20
Utah is 6-1 in bowls under Whittingham; this is their first bowl since '11. Colorado State-Utah used to be rivals in Mountain West; Utah won last meeting 59-6 in 2010. Rams' coach McElwain is off to Florida after this magical (10-2) season- OC Baldwin coaches team here. State is 2-1 as an underdog with win over Colorado of Pac-12; they won last two bowls, despite allowing 80 points in two games. Grayson is senior QB who put up 48 points in LY's bowl win over Pac-12 squad (Washington State). Mountain West bowl dogs are 5-7 in last 12 tries. Favorite won last four Vegas Bowls (3-1 vs spread) with four of last five going over total.

Idaho Potato Bowl 12/20
Air Force is 2-4 in bowls under Calhoun, losing 42-41/33-14 in last two bowls, losing this bowl to Toledo in '11. Falcons also lost last two tilts on Blue Turf to play MW rival Boise State. Western Michigan was 1-11 LY, is 0-5 in bowls, with three of last four bowl losses by 5 points or less; they won six of last seven games, AF won five of last six. Broncos are 3-1 as a favorite this year. MW/MAC split this bowl last four years, with MW winning last two, 49-24/41-15. MAC teams are 2-9 in bowls last two years, 1-4 when favored. Under is 10-6 in last 16 MAC bowls.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery AL 12/20
South Alabama is in its first-ever bowl in just its third year as I-A team; Jaguars lost four of last five games, allowing 36 ppg in last four. Bowling Green lost last three games, allowing 39.7 ppg- they lost last four bowls, losing last three by total of 13 points. Falcons were 18-9 last two years under (current Wake Forest) coach Clawson- they allowed 41+ points in half their games. USA beat Kent State of MAC last two years, 38-21, 23-13. BG played MAC title game only two weeks ago; they have least prep time of any of the ten teams playing today. Last three years, MAC bowl dogs are 4-6. MAC teams are 14-21 vs spread out of conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Las Vegas Bowl'

The Las Vegas Bowl kicks off Saturday at 3:30 EST featuring Utah Utes taking on the Colorado State Rams at Sam Boyd Stadium. Utes had a lackluster finish to the regular season losing three of their last five games but do come into the game off a win over the 2-10 Buffaloes' to finished 8-4 SU/ATS overall, 5-4 SU/ATS in the Pac-12. The Rams had a successful campaign posting a 10-2 (8-4 ATS) record overall, 6-2 (4-4 ATS) within the Mountain West Conference but ended on a down note suffering a 3-point loss to Air Force in their regular season finale. Utah, which left the Mountain West in favor of the Pac-12 enjoyed the upper hand facing their former foes winning/covering seven of the last eight encounters including a 59-6 spanking in Utes last season in the MWC. Utah might be favored in this meeting but the lean is Colorado State behind QB Garrett Grayson (3779 yds, 32 TD, 6 Int) who lead the eighth-best passing attack in the country and talented running back Dee Hart grinding out 1254 rushing yards, 16 majors.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Saturday College Football Bowl Season Betting Preview

The 2014-2015 Bowl season kicks off Saturday December 15, 2014. The first bowl game of the year is the New Orleans Bowl. This game will take place at 11:00 am. (ET) at the Superdome. It showcases Nevada (7-5) vs LA Lafayette (8-4). The betting line for this game started at -3 for Nevada but has since turned into a pick em play. The number for this game is at 60.5. Nevada is 9-1 UNDER coming off a road game, LA Lafayette is 8-1 ATS away from home and coming off back to back conference games, 26-13 ATS away from home after committing only 1 or less turnovers, and 20-7 OVER after having won 2 of their last 3 games.

The next bowl game is the New Mexico bowl. This game kicks off at 2:20 pm. (ET) at University Stadium in Albuquerque. UTEP (7-5) will be taking on Utah State (9-4). The betting line started at -10.5 Utah State and it currently sits at -10. The number for this game is 49. UTEP is 4-12 ATS as an underdog, 6-17 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards the previous game, and 6-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State is 19-7 ATS as a favorite, 6-0 ATS after a bye week, 6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss and 10-2 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games.

The Las Vegas Bowl kicks off at 3:30pm. (ET) At Sam Boyd Stadium. This Bowl game features Utah (8-4) vs Colorado (10-2). The line for this game started at -4.5 Utah, but has since moved to -3 Utah. The number for this game is 58.5 points. Utah is 23-43 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, 20-4 UNDER off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival, and 19-8 UNDER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Colorado State is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games, 7-0 ATS after 1 or more straight up losses, 11-3 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, and 31-16 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

The Famous Idaho Potatoe Bowl will be played at 5:45 pm. (ET) at Alberson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Western Michigan (8-4) faces Air Force (9-3). The line for this game started at -2 for Western Michigan but swing to -1.5 for Air Force. The number for this game is 56. Western Michigan is 10-2 ATS in all games, 6-1 ATS after playing a conference game, and 32-15 OVER off 1 or more consecutive under. Air Force is 3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers, 17-6 OVER after covering the spread 3 out of their last 4 games, and 26-13 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

The last bowl game of the night is the Camellia Bowl. This game will start at 9:15 pm (ET) at the Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Southern Alabama (6-6) will be playing Bowling Green (7-6). The line for this game started at -1.5 Southern Alabama, and has since increased to -3 points. Southern Alabama is 8-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, and 3-0 UNDER after allowing 42 points or more last game. Bowling Green is 14-4 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, 11-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, and 13-4 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book IV - Tackling Travels
By JASON LOGAN

The names are different but the situations stay the same.

Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.

We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.

BOOK IV: BE MINDFUL OF MILES BURNED DURING BOWL SEASON

Earning a spot on the college football bowl calendar is not only rewarding for the money poured into the program or the chance to play in a nationally showcased game.

For many players, a bowl games means a chance to get outside of the norm – to get off campus and travel to far-off exotic places. For some teams, though, bowl season can often mean a two-hour bus trip down the highway, which has its positives and negatives.

“Some teams, or at least their fan bases, have the benefit of staying close to home, leading to a home-field advantage,” says Sean Murphy. “With that being said, not getting to travel can hurt the motivation of the players taking the field. It really is a double-edged sword.”

There are a number of programs staying close to home this bowl season, none more than San Diego State. The Aztecs went 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in the regular season and were rewarded with a home game against Navy at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 23. While having the home-field edge is big – and oddsmakers have set SDSU as a 2.5-point chalk for the Poinsettia Bowl – there could be some letdown from the Aztecs, who are home for the holidays for the third time in five years.

Another bowl competitor making a short trip this postseason is Stanford, which could pretty much hold a half marathon and be at its bowl game in Santa Clara – a mere 13 miles (22-minute drive) from Palo Alto. In fact, that seems like a brilliant conditioning/bounding exercise for the Cardinal (Oh, how’d you guys get here? We ran…).

Books have Stanford pegged as a two-touchdown Foster Farms Bowl favorite versus Maryland, which actually makes the longest trip this bowl season. The Terrapins, at 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, cross the country on a 2,425-mile hike. It’s safe to say the Terrapins, who have a 31-day layoff between games, will be in enemy territory on Dec. 30.

Other teams putting some miles on the frequent-flyer card in the next month are Navy (2,302-mile trip to San Diego for Poinsettia Bowl), BYU (2,066-mile trip to Miami for the Miami Beach Bowl), and Nevada (1,805-mile trip to New Orleans for New Orleans Bowl).

Florida State has to jump the country for its showdown with Oregon (-9.5) in the Rose Bowl – a 1,986-mile leap – but the Seminoles are used to these types of challenges and have a rapid fan base that travels extremely well, especially for a New Year’s Day bowl game.

Measuring how much of a home-field edge teams will have for the true neutral-site games is tough. Looking back at road records is a good indicator of how a program performs out of its element but if you want to gauge how the percentage of school colors in the stands you should keep a close eye on ticket sales.

Every bowl team is allotted a certain number of tickets to sell to its faithful. Often times, location (is it a vacation destination like Florida or California?), opponent (is it even worth going to see?), and time of the month (close to Christmas or New Year’s?) have a huge impact on whether fans will travel to the game or not.

Heading into the first weekend of bowl action, Air Force is having a tough time selling its share of tickets for the Idaho Potato Bowl. The Falcons play Western Michigan (-1) – not a marquee team by any means – and are asking fans to leave Colorado Springs to come to Boise on short notice. Not even the “Smurf Turf” of Albertsons Stadium can get Air Force butts in the seats.

Even the lure of the Sunshine State isn’t enough to get football fans on the move this bowl season. Iowa is reporting “sluggish” tickets sales for the Hawkeyes’ showdown with Tennessee (-3.5) in the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida on Jan. 2. According to the school, Iowa hasn’t even sold half of its 8,000-ticket allotment while the Volunteers, who have a proximity edge, sold out their 8,000 tickets a few days after the bowl matchup was announced.

Some friendly faces can go a long way when these programs hit the highway for their bowl games. That home-field feel may just before the difference when spreads get tight this postseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

NEVADA (7 - 5) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (8 - 4) - 12/20/2014, 11:00 AM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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UTEP (7 - 5) vs. UTAH ST (9 - 4) - 12/20/2014, 2:20 PM

Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH ST is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
UTEP is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH (8 - 4) vs. COLORADO ST (10 - 2) - 12/20/2014, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. AIR FORCE (9 - 3) - 12/20/2014, 5:45 PM

Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
W MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
W MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
W MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S ALABAMA (6 - 6) vs. BOWLING GREEN (7 - 6) - 12/20/2014, 9:15 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

DECEMBER 20, 11:00 AM
NEVADA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Nevada's last 18 games
Nevada is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games

DECEMBER 20, 2:20 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. UTAH STATE
Texas El Paso is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas El Paso's last 6 games
Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah State's last 6 games

DECEMBER 20, 3:30 PM
UTAH vs. COLORADO STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games
Utah is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games
Colorado State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

DECEMBER 20, 5:45 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. AIR FORCE
Western Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Air Force's last 9 games
Air Force is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

DECEMBER 20, 9:15 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. BOWLING GREEN
South Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
South Alabama is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 8 games
Bowling Green is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

New Orleans Bowl
Nevada vs UL Lafayette
Eight of the past nine New Orleans Bowls played OVER the total
Fourth straight year for UL-Lafayette in the bowl (covered past three)
Nevada lost six of past seven bowl games, but covered spread in past two

New Mexico Bowl
Utah State vs UTEP
Past six New Mexico Bowls played OVER the total
Utah State played UNDER past three bowl seasons
UTEP 0-4 SU and ATS in bowl games since 1995

Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs Colorado State
Utah 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in bowls since 1995
Both teams were 8-4 ATS on the season
CSU has played four straight bowl OVERs

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Western Michigan vs Air Force
MAC schools have been crushed past two Potato Bowls
Western Michigan winless in five bowls since 1995
Western Michigan finished year on 10-1 ATS run

Camellia Bowl
South Alabama vs Bowling Green
First edition of Camellia Bowl
South Alabama ended year on 1-6 ATS run
First bowl game for the Jaguars
Bowling Green 0-4 in past four bowls, 0-3-1 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

New Orleans Bowl - Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Nevada vs LA Lafayette - 12/20/14 at 11:00 AM EST

Nevada
9-1 UNDER coming off a road game

LA Lafayette
8-1 ATS away from home and coming off back to back conf. games
26-13 ATS away from home after committing only 1 or less turnovers
37-17 OVER as a favorite
20-7 OVER after having won 2 of their last 3 games

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
UTEP vs Utah State - 12/20/14 at 2:20 PM EST

UTEP
4-12 ATS as an underdog
6-17 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards the previous game
42-64 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
6-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

Utah State
19-7 ATS as a favorite
6-0 ATS after a bye week
6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss
10-2 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Las Vegas Bowl - Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
Utah vs Colorado State - 12/20/14 at 3:30 PM EST

Utah
23-43 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
20-4 UNDER off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival
12-4 UNDER after playing a conference game
19-8 UNDER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite

Colorado State
9-1 ATS in non-conference games
7-0 ATS after 1 or more straight up losses
11-3 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
31-16 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertons Stadium - Boise, ID
Western Michigan vs Air Force - 12/20/14 at 5:45 PM EST

Western Michigan
10-2 ATS in all games
6-1 ATS after playing a conference game
32-15 OVER off 1 or more consecutive under

Air Force
3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
17-6 OVER after covering the spread 3 out of their last 4 games
26-13 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Camellia Bowl - Crompton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
South Alabama vs Bowling Green - 12/20/14 at 9:15 PM EST

South Alabama
8-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
3-0 UNDER after allowing 42 points or more last game

Bowling Green
14-4 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
11-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread
11-2 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56
13-4 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 62 - Purse:$3800 - FILLIES & MARES - CLAIMING $6000. - FOR N/W $10000. LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 MAGIC TOUCH CYBELE 5/2


# 6 STARLIGHT VIOLET 7/2


# 2 SHEMARS LULU 4/1

The consensus in this contest is that MAGIC TOUCH CYBELE is the one to beat. Her 68 average has this mare among the most competitive TrackMaster Speed Ratings in here. Squaring off admirably, recorded a clear-cut TrackMaster Speed Rating in her last contest (66). Shepherd has been on fire this last month, winning at a formidable 23 percent. STARLIGHT VIOLET - Is a substantial win contender given the 60 speed rating from her most recent race. McClure will be looking to win in this event, has been hot as a pistol these days. Win pct the past month is a sparkling 19. SHEMARS LULU - The handicapping group gives this race horse a competitive chance to take this race, class statistics are tops in the pack.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 10:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$16000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $25,000 - $30,000 POST POSITIONS DRAWN ACCORDING TO BASE PRICE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 DOCTOR CARTER 3/1


# 1 GUNS AN ROSES 5/1


# 5 JOHNNY Z 8/1

After thorough analysis by the consortium, DOCTOR CARTER comes out as the top pick. Has the perfect running style to handle this field of horses, according to the pace statistics. Win statistic for this driver/conditioner is a sparkling 21 percent - terrific chance. Miller and Morgan have a really strong working relationship. Fantastic results from their races. GUNS AN ROSES - Looks like a strong play in this group of horses and his successful winning percentage says he has the desire to end up in the winner's circle for this one. This competition could very well be controlled by this gelding. Just one look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will verify that. JOHNNY Z - Many expert selectors will recognize the great TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this field of starters.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 40

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 JOHNNY THE BEAR 3/1


# 1 BOSSY'S PRIZED 5/2


# 2 CLAUDIO 8/1


JOHNNY THE BEAR has a decent shot to take this race. Recent figs for the jock - 16 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of animals. Seems to have a decent class edge based on the most recent company kept. I like Gutierrez on this gelding to give him a competitive chance to hit the wire first. BOSSY'S PRIZED - This trainer has the most favorable return on investment in this field with entries moving at this distance and surface. With a sound jockey who has won at a strong 15 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. CLAUDIO - Competitive jockey and conditioner combo winning 15 percent of their races working together. This jockey and conditioner team has produced some very solid ROI numbers at this track.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 95

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $7,500 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $18,600 SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 CHARISMATIC PULPIT 9/2


# 10 STROLL TO VICTORY 7/2


# 9 KEY FOR SUCCESS 12/1


CHARISMATIC PULPIT is my choice. If you examine closely, this horse has some longshot possibilities. Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. Parker has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 20 percent rate. KEY FOR SUCCESS - Is a key contender - given the 95 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:03pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 SYNERGIST (ML=5/1)
#7 FRIDAYS GIFT (ML=7/2)


SYNERGIST - This rider and trainer have a positive return on investment when they join forces. This thoroughbred wins a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe she will boost the lifetime total in this event. Ran last race out against tougher competition at Woodbine. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well. This filly is in fine physical condition. Finished third on Nov 30th. FRIDAYS GIFT - This mare is in exceptional form right now. Ended up second last race out and comes back promptly. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PENNIE MY LOVE (ML=5/2), #1 VENTE LATTE (ML=3/1), #6 DANCING TIGRESSE (ML=4/1),

PENNIE MY LOVE - Today's event is 7 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance affair in the last couple months. Not the best of signs. VENTE LATTE - A stretch-runner like this one needs a speed battle to set things up and she isn't likely to get one this time around. DANCING TIGRESSE - This stretch-runner looks to have no chance without an early speed duel on the front end. Finished sixth last time. Would have to advance to hit the board in today's event. Run-of-the-mill rating last race out at Laurel Park at 6 furlongs. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 SYNERGIST is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:52pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 GROOVY DANCER (ML=5/1)
#4 QUEEN BEE TERESA (ML=4/1)


GROOVY DANCER - This filly is tops in earnings per race. Give the once over to this one before the race. QUEEN BEE TERESA - Trainer Velazquez moves this horse down in class to face a lower rated field. Look for a strong effort this time out. Good return on investment for this rider and trainer duo. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a solid outing on November 25th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KICK SAVE (ML=8/5), #1 FOREVER GOLDEN (ML=5/2),

KICK SAVE - This steed hasn't been on the track since Nov 24th. Not even any works. FOREVER GOLDEN - Showed very little in the last event. Really don't see any hint of improvement today. Don't feel this horse will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GROOVY DANCER - When a beautiful animal takes such a big drop in the Equibase class rating department, I always take a glance. I like what I see with this one and am betting on her.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #7 GROOVY DANCER on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass