Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
**Alabama at Auburn**
-- As of early Friday morning, most betting shops had Alabama (10-1 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. The Tigers were +475 on the money line (risk $100 to win $475).
-- Alabama is No. 2 in this week’s CFP rankings, meaning it will be in the playoffs for a second straight season if it can win the Iron Bowl and next week’s SEC Championship Game. However, Ole Miss remains alive in the SEC West and can steal Alabama’s spot if it wins the Egg Bowl and sees Auburn upset the Crimson Tide.
-- Since losing at home to Ole Miss by a 43-37 count in Week 3, Nick Saban’s team has won eight in a row while going 5-3 ATS. The Crimson Tide has taken the cash in three consecutive games, including last week’s 56-6 win over Charleston Southern as a 40.5-point home favorite. Two weeks ago in Starkville, Alabama cruised to a 31-6 win at Mississippi St. as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Kirby Smart’s defense started the game with a goal-line stand to set the tone, stuffing Dak Prescott on a run up the middle on fourth and goal from the one. Derrick Henry exploded for 204 rushing yards and a pair of touchdown runs from 74 and 65 yards out.
-- Henry has emerged as a prime Heisman Trophy candidate since gashing LSU for 210 yards and three TDs in a 30-16 home win on Nov. 7. Sportsbook.ag has Henry as the -275 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has the next-shortest odds (+275). Henry has performed his best in the big games, including a season-high 236-yard effort in a 41-23 win at Texas A&M. Henry has run for 1,526 yards and 21 TDs while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
-- Alabama’s defense was put in bad positions due to five turnovers, including two on kickoff returns, not to mention a fluky play resulting in a long TD pass, in the loss to the Rebels when they put up 43 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Since then, however, the Tide’s defense hasn’t given up more than the 23 scored by the Aggies. This unit ranks third in the nation in total defense and scoring, allowing only 14.5 points per game. Alabama is second in the country against the run, giving up only 77.8 yards per game on the ground.
-- If Alabama has a weakness, it’s the passing game. Senior QB Jacob Coker has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,106 yards with a 14/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The transfer from FSU went a month without throwing a TD pass until hitting Calvin Ridley for a 60-yard scoring strike at Mississippi St. Ridley, a true freshman and five-star recruit, has been ‘as advertised. Ridley has a team-high 61 receptions for 701 yards and five TDs. ArDarius Stewart has also had a strong season, hauling in 42 catches for 455 yards and a pair of TDs.
-- Alabama’s versatile RB Kenyan Drake broke his arm in the win at MSU. However, he returned to practice, albeit on a limited basis, earlier this week and Saban indicated that he might have a chance to play in the Iron Bowl. Even if he doesn’t, it’s clear he’ll be ready for the CFP and is more than likely going to be able to play in Atlanta next weekend (assuming, of course, that AU doesn’t pull the upset Saturday on The Plains). Drake has 21 receptions for 234 yards and two TDs, in addition to rushing for 333 yards and one score. Drake also has 287 yards on kick returns.
-- Auburn (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) has been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments. Many scribes, including this one, had QB Jeremy Johnson pegged for greatness. I felt like Will Muschamp was the nation’s best defensive coordinator hire, while Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma was the best OC hire. I was correct on the latter, but wrong on the former. In fairness to Muschamp, he inherited an AU defense that was horrible in 2014 and he’s had to coach that unit without its best player Carl Lawson for most of the year. Gus Malzahn’s offense has fallen on hard times as well, as it ranks 86th in the nation. AU is going to finish last in the SEC West after many picked them to win the division and make the playoffs. Barring a stunning win over arch-rival Alabama, Malzahn’s seat will be warm going into 2016. As for Muschamp, he signed a one-year contract so whether or not he’ll be returning is unclear at this time.
-- Four of Auburn’s five defeats have come in one-possession games. Johnson was benched in favor of Sean White after an embarrassing 45-21 loss at LSU in Week 3. White was ineffective in his first start, a 17-9 home loss to Mississippi St. one week after the disaster in Baton Rouge. White seemed to be improving in wins vs. San Jose St. (35-21) and at Kentucky (30-27). He probably played his best game in a four-overtime loss at Arkansas that was a crushing defeat for AU backers catching seven points in the 54-46 setback.
-- White has completed 57.7 percent of his throws for 1,064 yards, but he has only one TD pass compared to two interceptions. White injured his knee in a 27-19 home loss to Ole Miss and has only played one possession since then.
-- With White injured, Johnson made his first since the LSU debacle at Texas A&M on Nov. 7. The Tigers posted their most impressive performance of the season, winning 26-10 in College Station as seven-point underdogs. Johnson completed 13-of-17 passes for 132 yards and one TD while playing turnover-free football. Jovon Robinson, the juco transfer who arrived with expectations galore, finally received significant playing time with 27 carries for 159 yards and one TD. Muschamp’s defense intercepted A&M’s Kyle Allen three times.
-- Johnson has started the last three games and will get a fourth consecutive start against Alabama. In the three prior contests, Johnson has completed 40-of-58 passes for 256 yards and three TDs with only one interception. Johnson accounted for four TDs in last week’s 56-34 non-covering home win over Idaho as a 33-point ‘chalk.’ Johnson threw for 163 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Vandals. He also had a pair of rushing scores. Robinson rushed 15 times for 99 yards and one TD. For the season, Johnson has an 8/7 TD-INT ratio and five rushing scores.
-- Auburn has limped to an abysmal 1-5 spread record in six home games at Jordan-Hare Stadium this year. The one spread cover came in the line home ‘dog spot, however. During Malzahn’s three-year tenure, Auburn owns a 3-0 spread record, including a pair of outright wins in miraculous fashion vs. Georgia and Alabama in 2013.
-- Alabama has covered the number as a road favorite in both such spots this season. The Crimson Tide was an underdog for the first time since the 2009 SEC Championship Game for its Week 5 trip to Athens, but it smashed Georgia 38-10 as a 1.5-point puppy.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for ‘Bama, 2-1 in its road assignments. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 49.5 points per game.
-- The ‘under’ is 6-3-2 overall for AU, 5-1-1 in its home games. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 55.6 PPG.
-- When these teams met in Tuscaloosa last season, Auburn led for most of the game and was up by double digits early in the fourth quarter. But Alabama hit a slew of big plays in the final stanza and rallied to not only win 55-44, but also take the cash as an 8.5-point home favorite.
-- The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight Iron Bowls.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
**Florida State at Florida**
-- As of early Friday morning, most books had Florida State (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 43. As recently as two weeks ago, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas had the Gators favored by 5.5 points.
-- Florida (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) hasn’t been impressive lately and has seen its defensive line decimated by injuries. DE Alex McCalister and DT Jonathan Bullard, both of whom are All-American candidates, were listed as ‘doubtful’ early Friday. McCalister injured his foot in the first quarter of a 24-14 win at South Carolina two weeks ago. He did not return against the Gamecocks and sat out last week’s shaky overtime win over Florida Atlantic. Bullard injured his knee in the first quarter against FAU, but he saw quite a bit of action in the second half. The guess here is that head coach Jim McElwain might be playing coy with Bullard, who is a senior. I’ll be very surprised if Bullard doesn’t dress out and try to play. McCalister seems less likely to play, though he’s been seen without a walking boot this week.
-- There are lots of other injuries on UF’s report. The good news is that Brandon Powell (foot) was upgraded to ‘probable’ after Wednesday’s practice. Five players, including three starters are listed as ‘questionable.’ This group includes OL Cam Dillard, DE Jordan Sherit, OG Martez Ivey, DT Thomas Holley and DT Joey Ivie, who has four sacks. DT Taven Bryan is ‘doubtful.’
-- UF is unbeaten at home this year with a 3-3 spread record. However, it has failed to cover the number and barely won outright in a pair of home appearances since starting QB Will Grier was suspended following a 21-3 win at Missouri. The Gators needed a late field goal and a valiant defensive effort to slip past Vanderbilt, 9-7. Then last weekend, the offense was atrocious and the kicking game was deplorable in an OT win over FAU.
-- Treon Harris became the starter after Grier’s suspension and played well in a 35-28 loss at LSU. He was decent in wins over Georgia (28-3) and South Carolina, but the true sophomore from Miami was part of many offensive problems in the scary home wins over Vandy and FAU. Harris isn’t as accurate as Grier, but he’s a better scrambler. For the season, Harris has completed 54.6 percent of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8/4 TD-INT ratio. He has 198 rushing yards.
-- Florida junior RB Kelvin Taylor has rushed for a team-best 841 yards and 13 TDs, becoming the first UF back to run for that many scores since his father “Four TD” Fred did in 1997. The older Taylor earned the moniker “Four TD Fred” by gutting the unbeaten and top-ranked FSU defense for four rushing scores in the 1997 game at The Swamp – a 32-29 title-denying upset win by the Gators less than a year after spanking the ‘Noles 52-20 in New Orleans to win the school’s first of three national titles.
-- FSU’s offense is built around sophomore RB Dalvin Cook, who was originally a verbal commit to Florida and Will Muschamp but changed his mind after UF lost to Ga. Southern in 2013. Cook has enjoyed a sensational season, rushing for 1,475 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 8.0 yards per carry.
-- FSU junior QB Sean Maguire will get his fifth straight start and the sixth of his career. Maguire is completing 65.0 percent of his passes for 968 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson started the first seven game and could see playing time against UF. Golson has connected on 67.1 percent of his throws for 1,778 yards with an 11/3 TD-INT ratio.
-- FSU’s top WRs are Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Jesus Wilson. Rudolph has 51 receptions for 693 yards and six TDs, while Whitfield has 51 catches for 690 yards and six TDs. Wilson has 45 grabs for 516 yards and two TDs.
-- FSU ranks 11th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 17.0 PPG.
-- FSU senior LB Reggie Northrup is ‘questionable’ with an arm injury. Northrup has 78 tackles, including four for loss and five QB hurries.
-- Florida has won outright in a pair of home underdog spots this season, beating Tennessee and Ole Miss at The Swamp.
-- Florida true freshman WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway has been spectacular. He has 27 receptions for 541 yards and four TDs. Callaway has also averaged 14.3 yards per punt return, including a 72-yarder for a TD to tie the game at LSU in the fourth quarter. DeMarcus Robinson has 46 catches for 503 yards and two TDs. Senior TE Jake McGee has 34 receptions for 304 yards and four TDs.
-- FSU has won back-to-back games in this rivalry, but Florida took the cash in a 24-19 loss as a seven-point road underdog last year. UF held Jameis Winston to a career-low 125 passing yards and took him for a career-worst four interceptions. The Gators led 9-0 late in the first quarter and had a first-and-goal opportunity, but Harris might have put a little too much zip on a short pass to TE Tevin Westbrook, who was unable to make the catch. Even worse, the ball bounced up and into the hands of DE Terrance Smith, who proceeded to rumble 94 yards for a pick-six to completely turn the game around. At worst, UF would’ve taken a 12-0 lead but instead found itself leading 9-7. Counting Smith’s score, the ‘Noles would score 21 unanswered points, but Harris found Clay Burton for a 15-yard scoring strike with 47 ticks left in the second quarter. Trailing 21-16 going into the third, UF mounted a solid drive but had to settle for a 32-yard field goal from Austin Hardin. However, Hardin missed a pair of field goals that could’ve given the Gators the lead later in the second half. FSU would add a field goal with 3:23 remaining for a 24-19 advantage. UF moved into FSU territory in the final minute, but Harris threw behind an open. Robinson on a fourth-and-10 play to bring the Muschamp Era to a familiar end with yet another gut-wrenching defeat.
-- The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals, cashing in five straight played at The Swamp.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for UF, 3-3 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight for the Gators, who have seen their games average combined scores of 41.8 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for FSU, 4-0 in its road assignments. The Seminoles have seen their games average combined scores of 49.8 PPG.
-- ESPN will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Clemson lost five in a row to South Carolina for the first time in the history of the series that dates back to the 1890s until last year. Even worse, the Gamecocks won all five of those by double-digit margins. Dabo Swinney’s team was so desperate for a win over USC last season that it played star freshman QB Deshaun Watson despite the fact that he had a torn ACL. It worked, though, as the Tigers cruised to a 35-17 triumph as 6.5-point home favorites. This time around, Clemson is undefeated, Steve Spurrier is no longer on the USC sidelines and the Gamecocks are 3-8 and off a home loss to The Citadel. Swinney’s squad is a 17.5-point road favorite.
-- Tennessee is a 17-point home favorite vs. Vanderbilt. The total is 41.5 points. The ‘under’ is 10-0-1 in Vandy games this year. The Commodores are 8-4 ATS in 12 games as double-digit underdogs on Derek Mason’s watch.
-- Kentucky has been a four-point home underdog to Louisville for most of the week, but most spots adjusted U of L to a six-point road ‘chalk’ on Friday.
-- Georgia coach Mark Richt’s job will be on the line Saturday on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta. Ga. Tech has a 3-8 record despite being favored in nine of its 11 games. The Bulldogs are in revenge mode after losing to Paul Johnson for just the second time in eight meetings since he took over the Yellow Jackets. The 2014 loss in Athens came in overtime in a game that UGA gave away with red-zone turnovers. Most spots have UGA favored by four.
-- Ole Miss is a one-point favorite at Mississippi St. in another edition of The Egg Bowl. The home team has won four straight and 14 of the last 16. The Bulldogs will be seeking to avenge last year’s loss in Oxford that knocked them out of the playoff picture.
-- Les Miles will almost certainly be making his final appearance on the home sidelines in Saturday’s showdown between LSU and Texas A&M under the lights at Tiger Stadium. Most books have the Tigers listed as 5.5-point ‘chalk.’ LSU will be without star WR Travin Dural, who sustained a season-ending hamstring injury in last week’s loss at Ole Miss. The Tigers have lost three in a row by double-digit margins for the first time since 1966.
