Saturday 11/15/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Red Dog Sports

Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Bonus Play Mississippi State +8.5

This was +7 earlier in the week but now moved to +8 or +8.5 at many sportsbooks. Miss State is #1 in the country and one of a few undefeated teams but their big wins (vs. Auburn) were at home. The Bulldogs are led by QB Dak Prescott and a strong defense. Alabama is off an overtime win at LSU as they had to fight to get even and then win in the extra period.

Alabama has won multiple titles under Nick Saban and have a senior QB Blake Sims, who has played better at home that on the road. RB TJ Yeldon looks to be out with an injury and WR Amari Cooper is one of the best in college football.

I won't be shocked to see the Crimson Tide roll to a big win but think Mississippi State can hang in there and stay within a touchdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Free Pick on Alabama -

With this spread the books are all but begging for the public to take Mississippi State and the points, but I think the smart play here is on Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are a different team at home than they are on the road, so don’t let their less than impressive performances at Ole Miss, Arkansas and LSU fool you. Alabama has won 13 straight at home and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference home games over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average margin of 43.5 to 8!

For me this game comes down to defense and you have to give Alabama the edge in this area of the game. The Crimson Tide come in ranked 4th in the country in total defense (275.2 ypg). They are only giving up 2.7 yards/rush attempt and so much of Mississippi State’s offense is centered around the run. As good as Dak Prescot has been this season, I think he’s going to struggle to play up to the same level that we have seen so far.

As for the Bulldogs defense, this is where I see the game getting out of hand. Mississippi State comes into this game ranked a mere 87th in the country in total defense, giving up 427.3 ypg. While they have done a respectable job against the run (126.7 ypg, 22nd), they have really struggled against the pass (300.6 ypg, 113th). Alabama has the 29th ranked passing attack in the country (281.2 ypg), which is centered around one of the best receivers in the nation in Amari Cooper.

I look for the Crimson Tide to take full advantage of the Bulldogs weak secondary and if they can get out to a big lead early, I don’t believe Mississippi State is capable of playing from behind.

There’s also a nice system in play. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who saw their last game go under the total in a matchup of two teams that outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg at least 8 games into the season are 39-13 ATS since 1992. That's a 75% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Army vs. Western Kentucky

1* Bonus Play Army +8

I'll take Army here as they are desperate for a win here to make a game against Navy to end the season really really interesting as they try to get to a bowl game. Navy ran for 412 yards against Western Kentucky, and UTEP, UAB, MIddle Tennessee all runf irst teams ran all over Western Kentucky who got really lucky last week. A pick 6 late when UTEP decided to get cute and throw it in the red zone is what changed the entire game and give Western Kentucky the win. Army won't get cute they run the ball 85% of the time and that won't change. Army in a revenge spot here losing 21-17 at home after rushing for 277 yards a year ago. I look for them to keep this game within 1 possession.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Missouri vs. Texas A&M 7:30 ET

Chipper's FREE NCAA Winner Missouri

Tigers (+) over Aggies- From the git-go I just liked this side. We has A&M over Auburn last week and they certainly did celebrate that win. Let-down city as Tigers bite Aggies. Take TEXAS A&M!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Stryker

Texas vs. Oklahoma State

Bonus Play Texas

Since getting shutout at Kansas State, Texas has caught fire in its last two games. The Longhorns have knocked off Texas Tech and West Virginia and look to make it three straight against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Considering the Horns own a dominant 23-5 SU record in this series, head coach Charlie Strong’s soldiers will continue their late-season run.

It won’t take much for the Longhorns to get up for this contest. OSU drilled UT last year winning in Austin 38-13. That loss really works in our favor. Since 1986, game 11 revenging favorites that own a 5-5 SU record are a lucrative 39-15-1 ATS. Equally impressive, Texas has been at its best on foreign soil notching a reliable 60-13 SU and 41-32 ATS record in its last 73 games. In this role checking in off a straight up loss or a straight up victory of 30 points or less (so no major blowouts), the Longhorns tighten up to a strong 39-8 SU and 31-16 ATS.

Oklahoma State’s last three games haven’t been pretty. The Cowboys are an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS and have fallen to TCU, West Virginia and Kansas State by the combined score of 124-33. The Pokes won’t find the going any easier against the ‘Horns improved defense. Texas’ “D” is ranked No. 14 against the pass (184.4 ypg), No. 32 in scoring (22.4 ppg) and No. 39 in total yards (362.0 ypg). To make matters worse, as an underdog going into revenge, OSU is a weak 7-27-1 SU and 11-24 ATS including a miserable 3-21-1 SU and 7-18 ATS in this set checking in off a conference game.

With a home game against TCU on deck, the 5-5 SU Longhorns are just one straight up win away from bowl eligibility. Coach Strong desperately needs (and wants) that extra practice time and he will do everything in his power to ensure that his troops leave Stillwater with a victory. The last thing UT wants to do is need a win over the Horned Frogs to go bowling. Take Texas. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Texas vs. Oklahoma State

Bonus Play Oklahoma State

The Texas Longhorns (5-5) are sky high after last weeks upset of West Virginia. The celebration after the game , was a little bit over the top and akin to a having won a national championship. Now an inevitable let down must be expected by the Longhorns. I know Oklahoma State(5-4) has not had a stellar season, but the Cowboys are desperate for a win , and must be not be disrespected. Despite of liking the future of this Texas group, I feel their not quite ready to be laying points on the road in Stillwater today.

Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Cowboys are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games.

Play on Oklahoma State 1/2 unit comp selection...no play at less than +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

New Mexico vs. Utah State

Bonus Play Utah State -19.5

Utah State is a much better team in this one and they are very tough defensively only giving up 19 points a game. Utah State should not have any trouble in this one. Utah State rolls in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Ohio State vs. Minnesota

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Ohio State/Minnesota OVER 54.5---

I believe the total for this matchup has been set way too low for this game. Ohio State features one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They come in averaging 48.8 ppg over their last 6 contests and just put up 49 on the road against the best defense the Big Ten has to offer in Michigan State. The big key here is that I don't think the Buckeyes will suffer a bit of a letdown off that big win over the Spartans and I see it having the biggest effect on their defense. Minnesota is certainly capable of putting up points. They scored 51 on a talented Iowa defense last week and have scored at least 24 in their last 6 games. That should be more than enough to push this over the mark, as Ohio State will have no problem eclipsing 30 points and I wouldn't be shocked if they eclipsed this total on their own. Keep in mind the Golden Gophers allowed Purdue a few weeks back to put up 38 points on them.

System - OVER is 35-13 (73%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a road conference win going up against a team who won by double-digits as an underdog. BET THE OVER 54.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Karpinski

Indiana vs. Rutgers

Bonus Play Indiana

Indiana is sliding away, losers of 4 in a row. They had a very tough loss to PSU, where they had them on the ropes, most of the game, and that could go either way mentally. Indiana has a better offensive game than Rutgers, but their D is bad. Rutgers started off to a promising start to season has crumbled like a dry cracker. Now after 3 straight weeks of getting demolished, their confidence is shattered. They have not been good at defending the run this year, and they miss a lot of tackles. Indiana with morale boost from staying with PSU last week and Rutgers checking out after the last 3 weeks, gives the Hoosiers the outright win on the road this Saturday.

Rutgers is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home

Indiana taking the +7 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick Parsons

Michigan State vs. Maryland

1* Bonus Play Michigan State

Michigan State is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Ohio State which knocks them out of the National Title picture as well as a chance for the Big 10 Championship. People are looking for a letdown in this game from the Spartans and under other coaches this was true. That is not the case under Coach D. The Spartans will come out looking to make up for that loss and Maryland will be the ones who pay.

Maryland is not a good football team and are suffering a rash of injuries. Losing their best offensive weapon won’t help matters against an angry Spartan defense. I think the number is too low in this game and if Sparty would have one Saturday this number would be a lot higher.

I would take the Spartans minus the points on Saturday!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

LSU vs. Arkansas

Tony George Sports Weekend FREE NCAA Play LSU +2 @ Arkansas

Lets see, Arkansas has lost 17 straight SEC games and yes they are due, but LSU the best team in the nation with 3 losses and all but the Auburn game they could have won. They are battle tested and road trip to Arkansas is hardly going to set them back. LSU can flat out run the ball along with Arky, but no one has pushed LSU around up from this season and they will hold their own here. Numerous experts say this is Arkansas's first win, they are lying in wait, and LSU will get out coached here. I am not putting a buy sign on Arkansas because LSU lost a tough game last week. The Tigers had both Alabama and Miss. St. on the ropes and could have won either game. Arkansas has failed on every test their last 17 conference games.

LSU can expose their rare passing game and exploit a Hog defense suspect to the pass, and Arky out manned here at home against a pissed off LSU team off a heart breaker against mighty Alabama. The set up looks sweet for the Razorbacks and LSU will in fact be in for another dogfight here but it has been 6 years since LSU lost back to back games, and I expect them to bounce back here against a team who has lost 17 SEC games in a row.

Bonus Play on LSU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joseph D'Amico

Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Saturday's FREE NCAAF winner is Mississippi State (Game 395).

Despite a 9-0 record, wins over three Top-10 teams, and a #1 ranking, Mississippi State comes into this matchup as a DD 'dog. Alabama owns a 43-3 SU record at Tuscaloosa since 2008. However, the Tide must be emotionally and physically drained after their narrow victory over the Tigers last week. The reason why the Bulldogs are such a big underdog is due the fact that they have not covered their L3 outings. Look closely here and you will see that 'Bama is only 3-6 ATS on the season, losing to Mississippi, and having trouble with both Arkansas and LSU. Miss State QB, Dak Prescott gets the edge here over counterpart, Blake Sims. Prescott has 2331 YP, an 18/7 TD/INT ratio and another 779 YR and 11 TD's on the ground. Sims' erratic play (especially vs. LSU) tells me that the Tide will depend more on their running game in this one. Both teams have very good defenses but keep in mind that RB, TJ Yeldon's ankle is not 100%. Alabama has also had problems with fumbles against defenses that aren't afraid of them. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS their L10 vs. teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS their L9 Conference games. The Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS their L10 following an ATS win and 3-9-1 ATS their L13 overall. Take Mississippi State. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Bonus Play Alabama

I'm recommending a play on Alabama minus the points on Saturday. The sharps have spoken. No less than 73% of the ATS tickets on this game have been written on Mississippi State at the time of this post. However, as you already know, the line has steadily risen from an opener of Alabama minus-7 up to 10. The respected money has poured in on the Crimson Tide. The NCAA playoff rankings committee has deemed the Bulldogs as the top team in the land with Alabama ranked 5th. However, the rankings I trust the most, or find to be reliable more often than not are the Vegas Rankings, which have the Crimson Tide as the #1 team in CFB. Alabama would be favored over every other team in college football on a neutral field. One of the reasons I like them even laying 10 is because they'll be taking aim at the nation's 123rd ranked pass defense. I don't like the Bulldog secondary and the defense also doesn't rush the QB well. Alabama was held in-check last week because LSU owns one of the top defenses in the nation. MSU should not be able to disrupt the Tide offense like the Tigers did. Yes, we know about Bama's struggles ATS the last couple of seasons. But we simply feel they'll be too strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage for what we consider to be an over-valued Bulldog entry. Therefore, I'm recommending a play on Alabama on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Utah vs. Stanford

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #355 Take Utah Utes over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 6 pm PAC-12 Network)

Stanford continues to be overvalued each and every week and I feel Utah is the better team in this game. Stanford does not have much of a home field advantage and Utah always travels well. The Utes beat a much better Stanford team last year and they are 4-0 ATS on the road this season. Stanford struggles to move the football on offense especially in the red zone and that will be their undoing in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Auburn vs. Georgia

Bonus Play Georgia

Georgia has been waiting all season for this revenge spot after Auburn pulled off a miracle win last year on a tipped 73-yard touchdown pass on a 4th and 18 with 25 seconds left.

The spot comes at a good time for the Bulldogs.

Auburn is down after its dreams of an undefeated season were shattered last week by Texas A&M. The Tigers also lost their best receiver, D'haquille Williams. He suffered a knee injury in that shocking loss and is gone for the season. That's a big weapon lost for Nick Marshall.

Georgia is home for the first time since Sept. 4. The Bulldogs' already potent ground attack gets back a healthy and fresh Todd Gurley from suspension. Auburn's run defense is good, but it struggled versus Mississippi State. The Tigers are going to have problems on the road dealing with both Gurley, who might be the best in the country, and Nick Chubb.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Upstone

San Diego State vs. Boise State

Bonus Play Boise State

Play On home favorites like BOISE STATE, an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards a game, against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Why this college football system works is hot offenses like the Broncos can keep rolling and facing what is thought to be an OK defense, they continue to pile up the points. Teams like Boise State are 29-7 ATS, 80.6 percent in this spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Northwestern vs. Notre Dame

Bonus Play on: Notre Dame (378) over Northwestern @ 3:30 Eastern

Here we have #15 rated Notre Dame (7-2) showing off a 55-31 loss at Arizona State on Saturday, while Northwestern (3-6) visits South Bend after a very depressing home loss to Michigan 10-9. The Wildcats have now lost 6 straight home games to hated Michigan. Going back to the Irish the loss to ASU (#7) dropped them to #15 from #8 in the playoff agenda. What happened to ND Saturday is historically a norm rather than an oddity as Eastern and Midwestern units have exhibited harsh experiences when traveling to the desert in the month of November. Unlike some of their recent games, the Irish were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. On offense ND could not stop the run as ASU logged a 188-44 yard advantage. And, because the Irish couldn’t separate at the line of scrimmage QB Golson (446) was forced to throw into small gaps. The Sun Devils scored twice on interception touchdowns of 58 and 59-yards. Golson packaged 4 interceptions on the day and the Sun Devils never looked back garnering a 34-10 lead at half-time. Northwestern is whole different story. For those who thought the Wildcats still might salvage a winning season, think again as Notre Dame, Purdue and Illinois remain on the schedule. Coach Pat Fitzgerald brought back 17 starters from a 5-7 team that lost four games by eight points or less. This year the Wildcats three wins came against Western Illinois, Penn State and Wisconsin. You have to feel for their fans and backers as last week NW and Michigan where scoreless at half-time. With little time remaining in the game, the Wildcats scored a TD to make it 10-9, but their 2-point (rush) conversion failed. I have great respect for coach Fitzgerald trying to win the game. The series between Notre Dame and NW resumes with the Wildcats winning the last encounter back in 1995 by a score of 17-15. The Irish were 28-point favorites. Notre Dame has a 37-8-2 lead in the series. This is the first home game for the Irish dating back to UNC on October 11th. In home games this season the Irish are 3-1 ATS. By the way, Notre Dame played three neutral site games in Indianapolis, Landover and E. Rutherford which had to have a negative effect on their football team late in the season. If you research you’ll find some negative technical bias against the Irish but, I can’t see Notre Dame coming in flat. After the Florida State loss Notre Dame defeated North Carolina 50-43 in a sloppy game for the Irish defense, but this encounter has critical bowl status at stake. Here it should be Notre Dame 48 Northwestern 10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Indiana vs. Rutgers

Bonus Play - Indiana

Edges - Hoosiers: Defense improved 95 YPG this season over last season; and 3-0 ATS next after score 7 or less points last game. Knights: 3-15 SU and 5-11 ATS in games after having been shut out, including 10 SU losses and 1-7 ATS at home. With Indiana’s 261 rushing YPG offense fitting like a glove into a Rutgers rush defense that allows over 5 yards Per Rush, we recommend a 1-unit play on Indiana.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

LSU at Arkansas (-2.5) 8:00 ET ESPN2

Bonus Play LSU

Clearly, these are not the same two teams as last year, when LSU was recording consecutive 10-3 SU seasons and putting the touches on a 4-year run that has seen them go 44-8 SU. Nor is it the same Arkansas team who was 3-9 SU in the first year under HC Bielema, running the 2-year Hog record to 7-17 SU, 6-15 ATS. In last year’s season finale, LSU recorded a 470-360 yardage edge in a 31-27 LSU victory. That, however, came as 28 point favorite. This year, Arkansas is an admittedly improved team and super surging Bowldom with a record of 4-5 SU, 7-2 ATS. Yet, the bagel remains in the conference win column, running the Arkansas streak to 0-17 SU in league play. Last week’s 20-13 home OT loss to Alabama is the type of defeat that could sap a lesser team. That would be underestimating the resiliency of HC Miles and his Bengal Tigers. For under his guidance, the Tigers are 22-1 SU/loss! No letdown from the emotion of the Alabama game tonight as further indicated by the fact that LSU has won 14 consecutive games, after their battle with Alabama.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jesse Schule

Auburn vs. Georgia

Free NCAAF play Georgia Bulldogs

Auburn went all the way to the National Championship Game last year, and came very close to upsetting Florida State. The Tigers had a lot of luck along the way, with incredible bounces that went their way at critical times big games. One of those was against Georgia, when the converted on 4th and 18 for a 73 yard TD (tipped) to take the lead in the final seconds.

The Bulldogs will seek revenge here tonight, and they will get superstar RB Todd Gurley back to start against Auburn. Gurley missed the last four games due to suspension, so he should be well rested and primed for a monster performance on fresh legs.

Nick Chubb filled in nicely in his absence, running for 671 yards and five TDs. He'll likely see a few snaps here tonight as well.

The Tigers are 2-2 in their last four, but they could have easily lost all four of those games. They beat the Gamecocks at home by just seven points, in a game that they trailed for most of the first half. A week later they appeared to have lost to Ole Miss, but the potential game winning TD came off the board after video review, ruled a fumble in the endzone.

Their luck ran out last week, losing at home to Texas A&M, and I expect to see them take a pretty bad beating here on the road in Georgia.

Take UGA.

GL,

Jesse Schule